Weekly Outlook: March 25-31, 2019

We’re into the last week of March and we have our surest sign yet that winter is just about over. Opening Day for the defending World Champion Red Sox (we really love saying that) is Thursday. Granted, it’s in Seattle, and we have to wait another week and a half before they come back to Fenway, but we’re talking about baseball! Summer will be here before you know it.

Baseball is back! That means winter is nearly over. Image provided by Sportslogos.net

The first half of the week will actually be fairly quiet. High pressure builds in today and Tuesday behind a departing cold front, with dry but chilly conditions. As the high moves off to the east, temperatures will start to moderate for Wednesday and Thursday.

On Thursday in Seattle, when the World Champion Red Sox take the field for a 4:10pm PDT first pitch, some showers are possible with temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. Don’t worry about the showers though, as Safeco Field T-Mobile Park has a retractable roof, so there shouldn’t be any weather-related issues. As for bullpen issues, well, that’s for other blogs to discuss, but after last season, our mantra for now is “In Alex We Trust”. After all, they are the defending World Champions (we really love saying that).

Getting back to the weather, things start to get complicated around here for Friday and the weekend. You may have heard some forecasts that show highs in the 60s and 70s around here for Friday, Saturday, and possibly Sunday. Sure, that would be great and it’s very possible, at least according to a couple of models. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen though.

Several models think that Saturday could end up being a spectacular late March day. Do we agree with the models? Read on to find out. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A cold front may bring in some showers Thursday night into early Friday. Most of the models show this front stalling out across Northern New England, and remaining there for Friday and Saturday. This would allow milder air to move in, with Friday seeing temperatures in the 60s, and Saturday possibly topping 70 in many areas. The models finally bring that front through on Sunday, with mild temperatures for one more day, though Sunday could end up a rainy day before the front snaps us back to reality. Some models actually have the rain changing to snow Sunday night before ending Monday morning. How’s that for a reality check?

The same model that has highs near 70 on Saturday (and Sunday), is forecasting 1-2″ of snow Sunday night and Monday morning around here. Spring is never fun for meteorologists. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

So, if most of the models have it mild, why are we saying it might not happen? Because the models aren’t perfect, and we’ve seen this situation plenty of times in the past during the Spring, especially early Spring, and it doesn’t always work out the way the models show. The ocean is still very cold just to our east, with water temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s. There’s also plenty of snowcover up north. So, if you’ve got high pressure to the north, sitting over that cold air, and a front dropping southward, it’s got a lot of colder air to work with behind it. The front on Friday could very easily stall out just south of New England, and not somewhere across northern New England. If that happens, you can kiss those 60s and 70s goodbye. We’ll be looking at clouds, drizzle, and winds off the Atlantic keeping temperatures in the 40s, maybe even cooler.

The GFS Ensemble shows a wide range in potential forecast highs for Friday and beyond. We’ll explain what this image shows in the next paragraph. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The image above shows the forecast highs and lows for Bedford, Massachusetts for the next 15 days, based on the 20 members of the GFS Ensemble. The top horizontal line on high temperatures each day is the highest maximum temperature forecast for highest 10% of the members (2 out of 20). The horizontal line at the bottom of each day is the maximum forecast by lowest 10% of the members. The shaded area in the middle is the range based where 30-70% of the members are forecasting. The dot in the middle is the mean of all 20 members. Using this example for Saturday, the Ensemble has forecast range of 39 to 67 for high temperatures in Bedford. Most of the members come in between 47 and 58, with a mean of 53. With this in mind, we’re going to follow this thinking for now for Friday through Sunday, with highs mainly in the 50s to lower 60s. Keep in mind, temperatures could end up 10-15 degrees warmer or cooler than what we’re currently showing, depending on which scenario actually develops.

There is still a lot of snow on the ground in Northern New England. This may cause flood problems later in the Spring, but for now, it may help ruin a potential warm spell later in the week. Image provided by the Northeast River Forecast Center.

Monday: More clouds than sunshine. High 42-49.

Monday night: Clearing. Low 21-28.

Tuesday: Sunshine, and lots of it. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: Sunshine and just a few clouds. High 41-48.

Thursday: Morning sunshine, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. Showers possible at night. Breezy and milder. High 48-55, coolest along the south coast.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, especially during the afternoon. More showers and drizzle are possible at night. High 55-62.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy. High 58-65, cooler along the south coast.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely, possibly changing to snow at night. High 53-60.

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