Weekly Outlook: May 21-28, 2018

Can you believe that this coming weekend is Memorial Day Weekend? That’s right, the traditional start of summer is just about here. It seems like just yesterday we were shoveling snow.  None of that this week, just weather that is fairly typical of late May.

GFS 50-STATES USA Mass & CT & RI 2-m Dew Point 21
Dewpoints will only be in the 30s and 40s this afternoon? It doesn’t get much drier than that at this time of year. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The week starts off with a terrific day as high pressure builds in. We’ll have sunshine, warm temperatures and low humidity. What more could you want in late May? Clouds move in at night though as a weak system moves towards the region. This will spread in some showers on Tuesday, but the day shouldn’t be a washout. High pressure returns on Wednesday with partial sunshine, and slightly cooler temperatures. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Thursday and Friday with high pressure in control once again.

This brings us to the part of the forecast that most of you are interested in – Memorial Day Weekend. Unfortunately, it’s also the part where uncertainty reigns right now. Low pressure will pass by to the north, bring a frontal system towards the region. This will bring in clouds and a few showers on Saturday. Once again, we’re not expecting a washout, so don’t go cancelling any plans just yet. That front stalls out somewhere near the region, which has a big impact on the Sunday forecast. We’ll likely have more showers, but the temperature forecast will be highly dependent on where the front stalls out. If it stalls out across central or northern New England, we’ll still have temperatures in the 70s, possibly even the 80s if we can get some sunshine. However, if it stalls out near or just south of Southern New England, we may get stuck in the 60s or even 50s on Sunday. We’re leaning towards the milder side right now, but wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Sunday ends up a cool, damp day.

GFS 50-STATES USA Mass & CT & RI 2-m Maximum Temperature 144 (2)
Could some parts of the region reach 90 degrees on Saturday? At least 1 model is showing the potential. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As for Memorial Day itself, things get even more complicated. The front should lift northward, resulting in a warm and humid day. We’re fairly confident on that point right now. However, we’ll likely have more showers maybe even some thunderstorms. The fly in the ointment is some tropical moisture that will likely be flowing up the Eastern Seaboard. For quite some time now, at least one model has been trying to show the development of a tropical system in the western Caribbean which would then head towards the Gulf Coast or Florida. We’ve ignored that for a while because only one model was showing it, and it always seemed to be about two weeks out never any closer than that. Well, now it’s getting closer, and other models are showing something similar. No, we’re not expecting a tropical storm or hurricane to come up the East Coast. We’re still not completely convinced that anything will actually develop. However, we are fairly confident that the upper-level pattern will allow the moisture to flow from the Caribbean right up the East Coast. As a result, we could be looking at some locally heavy rain on Memorial Day. Keep in mind, this is still 7 days away, and a lot can change, so don’t go altering any plans just yet. If the system doesn’t develop/move out of the Caribbean, or if the front lifts much farther north, we could end up with a nice day with little to no rainfall. We’ll keep tabs on this during the week to see how things start to develop.

Upper-level winds are expected to blow from south to north, transporting plenty of moisture from the Caribbean up the East Coast next weekend. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.


Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 73-80.

Monday night: Increasing clouds. Low 50-57.

Tuesday: Cloudy and cooler with a chance of showers. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a few lingering showers possible. Low 51-58.

Wednesday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. High 74-81.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 69-76, cooler along the coast.

Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Clouds start to filter in late in the day. High 79-86.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a few showers. High 78-85.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with more showers possible. High 70-77.

Memorial Day: Cloudy and breezy with a chance for more showers, some of which could be heavy. High 71-78.

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