Weekly Outlook: May 15-21, 2017

Looks like we’ve got some weather Whiplash coming this week. We are finally going to Escape the damp and cool weather we’ve had for a while, though we still have One more day of it coming. After that, we’ll Turn The Page and head into some summer-like weather. After Tuesday’s Gone, temperatures will soar into the 80s for mid-week. After some snow in the mountains yesterday, winter lovers must realize that it’s Sad But True that we’ve finally reached The End Of The Line for snow this year. If you’re not a winter lover, then Dream No More, what you thought might have been The Day That Never Comes will finally arrive this week. Faster than you can say “Sabbra Cadabra“, you’ll be looking for summer clothes in your closet. Summer will finally arrive, and for most of you, Nothing Else Matters right now.

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Normal high temperatures are in the middle to upper 60s around here in May. Only 1 or 2 days this week will be around normal. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Low pressure in the Gulf of Maine this morning will slowly move eastward today, with any lingering showers coming to an end. High pressure builds in for Tuesday with sunshine and warmer temperatures returning. As the high moves offshore by mid-week, southwest to west winds will pump even warmer air into the region with most places, especially away from the South Coast and Cape Cod, soaring into the 90s. By Thursday, we could some locations top 90 degrees. We may see a few pop up showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but right now they don’t look widespread. A cold front will cross the region on Friday, though it will likely have little moisture associated with it. We’ll cool off a little on Saturday, but temperatures will still be near to above normal. Sunday is the big question mark at this point. Some of the models are showing a backdoor front moving in, which would mean another chilly, damp day, while others show that front retreating and moving northward as a warm front. Given the time of year and recent events, we are going to lean towards the chilly side for now, but the potential is there for next Sunday to be significantly warmer than what our forecast currently shows.

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The GFS is forecasting a hot day on Thursday. It’s not the only model showing this forecast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers ending. Some afternoon sunshine may develop. High 55-62.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 45-52.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 69-76

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and warmer. High 78-85, except 70-77 along the South Coast, possibly cooler on Cape Cod.

Thursday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, breezy, warm, and humid, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. High 85-92, except 77-84 along the South Coast, possibly cooler on Cape Cod.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny and drier. High 75-82, cooler on Cape Cod.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 64-71.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers. High 54-61, possibly warmer the farther south and west you go.

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The home of the Super Bowl Champions will be Hardwired to Self-Destruct on Friday. Image provided by GilletteStadium.com

Metallica Forecast: This Friday night, one of the greatest heavy metal bands of all-time returns to this area when they setup shop for a concert at the home of the 5-Time Super Bowl Champions. For those of you who are heading down to worship at the altar of the almighty Metallica, you can expect clear skies, with temperatures starting the evening in the upper 60s, dropping to the lower 60s by the time the final firework has exploded.

Weekly Outlook: May 8-14, 2017

Let’s clear up a few misconceptions right off the bat. The upcoming week is not going to be a “washout”, nor is it going to rain all day, every day. Sure, it’s not going to be a week to head to the beach, but then again, most weeks in May usually aren’t anyways.

An upper-level low pressure area will remain in place across the Northeast for the next several days. As a result, we’ll be dealing with intervals of clouds and sunshine, occasional showers, and below normal temperatures. By Thursday, this upper low should finally start to pull away from the region. That’s good, right? Well, yes, but the problem is, another upper-low will settle right back in next weekend. This one may be accompanied by a coastal storm, with a chance for some steadier and heavier rain.

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Might as well grab a Snickers bar, because that upper-level low pressure area isn’t going anywhere for a while. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

As for the day-to-day weather, it’s rather simple, yet it’s not that simple. Confused? We’ll explain. With an upper-level low overhead, most of the days will be fairly similar. We may start off with some sunshine, clouds will develop, and some showers will pop up across the region. That’s the simple part. Trying to figure out when and where the showers develop each day? Not so simple. With no organized systems coming through, it’s not that east to pinpoint where any precipitation will be. Next weekend, however, is a different situation. It looks like a coastal storm may try to move in for Sunday, which could bring in some gusty winds along with cool temperatures and steadier and heavier rainfall.

With the cool temperatures and occasional precipitation, there is also the chance for some snow this week, mainly across the higher elevations of the Berkshires along with the Green and White Mountains. No, we’re not expecting any snow around here. However, this week 40 years ago was a much different story. On May 9, 1977, a very late season storm brought snow to this area, with more than a foot in some places.

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Yes, it is still possible to get heavy snow around here in May, as we found out 40 years ago. Image provided by American Weather.

 

Monday: Some sunshine in the morning, then clouding up with a few showers possible. High 50-57.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a few showers. High 50-57.

Tuesday night:  Becoming mostly clear. Low 34-41.

Wednesday: Sunny early, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy with some showers possible. High 53-60.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely. High 51-58.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some showers. High 54-61.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Rain and gusty winds develop at night. High 53-60.

Sunday: Windy with periods of rain. High 43-50.

Weekly Outlook: May 1-7, 2017

Can you believe that 2017 is already 1/3 over? We’ve flipped the calendar over the May, so things should really start to improve now, right? Well, maybe. We’ll explain.

The week actually starts off with a rather tricky forecast as a warm front will try to move northward across the region. Notice that we said that it will “try” to move northward. We’re not sure how successful it will be. Some models bring the warm front right through the region, which will allow temperatures to soar into the 60s and 70s again today. On the flip side, some other models have the front get hung up across the region, with 60s and lower 70s south of it, but north of it, temperatures stay in the 50s, maybe even upper 40s. So, that is the big question for today. We’re leaning towards the latter scenario, with places north of Boston staying cool today, especially along the coast, though temperatures could rise in the evening and especially overnight as the warm front does eventually move through.

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Monday could be a warm day across much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
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Or maybe just part of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By tonight, some showers are expected ahead of a cold front, which will cross the region early Tuesday. Behind it, with developing sunshine, everybody warms up on Tuesday. (Yes, it will get warmer behind a cold front). High pressure builds in for Wednesday with cooler and drier conditions, then we start to warm up on Thursday as the high moves offshore. This bring us to the next problem.

The forecast for the end of the week and the weekend is also pretty tricky. A slow-moving low pressure system will start to make its way towards New England later on Thursday. Some showers may develop Thursday night, but Friday is looking rather wet. In fact, we may be looking at some tropical downpours, as southerly winds bring moisture right up from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this system. Of course, this is still 5 days away, so things can change. Maybe the setup won’t be just right, and we end up with showers and not downpours. Maybe the system slows down a bit and delays everything by 12 or 24 hours. There is still plenty of disagreement among the models to try to nail down the details. In other words, don’t cancel any outdoor plans for Friday just yet. That brings us to the weekend. Models are showing an upper-level system capturing the storm and taking its time to slowly move across the region. This would likely mean that Saturday and possibly Sunday could feature intervals of sun and clouds, with pop-up showers possible at almost any time. Again, don’t go cancelling any outdoor plans, but have a backup ready, just in case.

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Friday *could* be a real soaker across the region. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Monday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks possible, especially south of Boston. Chance for some drizzle or a few showers. High 48-54 along the NH Seacoast and in southern Maine, 56-63 for interior southern NH and northeastern Massachusetts, coolest along the coast, 64-71 south of Boston.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. Temperatures hold steady or slowly rise overnight.

Tuesday: A few lingering showers early, then becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 43-50.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 57-64.

Thursday: Sunshine fades behind increasing clouds. Showers develop at night. High 61-68, except a little cooler right along the coast.

Friday: Windy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. High 55-62.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a few showers. High 58-65.

Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for more showers. High 55-62.

Weekly Outlook: April 24-May 1, 2017

Once again, we’ve got good news and bad news for the week ahead. The bad news is that the middle of the week will feature one, possibly two, absolutely miserable days. The good news? The end of the week will feature some fantastic weather. That makes us think of a certain move theme.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, giving us a fairly nice Monday, but things go downhill for Tuesday and Wednesday. Low pressure that is bringing very heavy rainfall to the Carolinas today will slowly move up the coastline. This will result in rain, gusty winds, and cool temperatures for Tuesday, likely lingering into Wednesday. In other words, typical springtime weather in New England. The system will depart on Thursday, then a south to southwesterly flow will develop across the area. This means warmer conditions are likely for Thursday and Friday. How warm? How does highs into the 70s, possibly 80s on Friday, sound? Yeah, we thought you might like that. A cold front approaches late Friday with some showers, but it may not move through until sometime on Saturday, resulting in another warm day. Much cooler conditions are expected on Sunday with more rain possible as a frontal system will be stalled out just south of the region.

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Many locations could receive 1-2 inches of rain or more Tuesday into Wednesday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 57-64 along the coast, 65-72 inland.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers may develop towards daybreak. Low 39-46.

Tuesday: Breezy and cool with showers likely. High 44-51.

Tuesday night: Windy with showers becoming a steady rain, possibly heavy. Low 41-48 in the evening, then temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.

Wednesday: Windy with showers gradually tapering off. High 55-62.

Thursday: Maybe a lingering shower early, otherwise clouds give way to some afternoon sunny breaks. High 65-72, cooler along the coast.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm late in the day. High 73-80, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Sunshine fades behind increasing late-day clouds. Showers may develop at night. High 70-77.

Sunday:  Mostly cloudy with scattered showers possible. High 52-59 along the coast, 60-67 inland.

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Friday is looking like a fantastic day temperature-wise. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While we’re looking at some nice weather for the end of the week, a storm system will likely be making plenty of headlines in the nation’s midsection Friday and into next weekend. Severe weather may be fairly widespread ahead of the system from the Southern Plains and Texas into the Mississippi Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. Behind the system, a late-season snowstorm is possible from the Rockies into the Northern Plains. It’s still several days away, but the mountains could pick up substantial amounts of snow from this storm, with heavy snow possible in places like Denver and Rapid City.

Weekly Outlook: April 17-23, 2017

We’ve made it to Patriots Day, a true “Boston Holiday”, and usually the final sign that winter is over and Spring has arrived. So, does that hold true this year? Probably.

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Patriots Day is probably our favorite day of the year here at Storm HQ. Image provided by Boston Athletic Association.

 

As for the upcoming week, we’ve got good news and bad news. The good news is that Monday will be another fantastic day with partial sunshine and temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. The bad news? Much of the rest of the week won’t be so nice. Let’s get to the details.

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Sunday was quite toasty across the region. Don’t expect a repeat this week, or for a while. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday starts off with low pressure head into the Atlantic Canada and high pressure starting to build in from the west and northwest. This will result in sunshine and gusty westerly winds.  Temperatures will still be on the warm side, but about 15-20 degrees cooler than they were on Sunday. By Tuesday, high pressure moves into Atlantic Canada, meaning we still have sunshine, but northeast to east winds off of the 45-degree Atlantic Ocean mean that temperatures will drop another 10-15 degrees or so. By Wednesday, winds shift back to the southwest. This is good, because we’ll turn warmer, right? Well, yes, it will be a little milder, but also a lot cloudier and probably wetter as some rain moves in. Another cold front will move through very slowly on Thursday, possibly stalling out across the region as another storm starts to move out of the Great Lakes. This means more rain for Thursday into Friday. Temperatures on Friday are a big question mark, especially south of the Mass Pike. It all depends on where the low pressure area actually tracks. If it stays south of New England as one models shows, temperatures may stay in the 40s all day. If it tracks along and/or north of the Mass Pike, as another model showers, temperatures could spike into the 60s and lower 70s south of the Pike while areas to the north stay in the upper 40s and 50s. For now, we’ll split the difference and go in the middle, but there is a large bust potential for that forecast. As the system moves offshore early Saturday, cooler air will settle in behind it. If the cooler air moves in overnight before the rain ends, we could see some wet snowflakes mix in, especially across central and northern NH, as well as in the Monadnocks. Saturday will be a windy and cool day with plenty of clouds, and maybe even a lingering shower or two. High pressure returns for Sunday.

Monday: Sunshine dimmed by some high clouds at times in the afternoon, breezy at times. High 66-73.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 36-43.

Tuesday: Low clouds, fog, and drizzle may move in along the coast, well inland skies should be partly to mostly sunny. High 45-52, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 47-54.

Thursday: Cloudy with occasional showers. High 50-57.

Friday: Breezy with periods of rain and showers likely. High 50-57.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and windy with lingering showers. High 48-55.

Sunday:  A mix of sun and clouds. High 54-61.

Marathon/Red Sox Forecast: Sunshine and some high clouds. West to west-northwest winds 10-15 mph may gusts to 25 mph at times (that’s a nice tail wind for the runners, and blowing out to right-center field at Fenway). Temperatures in the middle 60s at the start, upper 60s for the 1st pitch at Fenway, and near or just over 70 when the 1st runners cross the finish line. Expect the Marathon to be won by someone from Kenya (usually a safe bet) and we’re predicting for a Sox win as well. Hopefully, the winning ways will continue on Causeway Street in the evening when the Bruins take on the Senators.

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It’s a great time to be a Boston Sports fan, and we haven’t even mentioned the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. Image provided by TheSportsQuotient.com

Weekly Outlook: April 10-16, 2017

Blizzards. Arctic Outbreaks. Freezing Rain. Scraping your windshield. Getting stuck behind a conga line of plows on the highway. Common occurrences in winter, and you’ve been dealing with them for several months while dreaming of sunshine and warmer days. You can stop dreaming now, because those days have arrived. They may not last long though, so you’d better enjoy them while they are here.

High pressure will move offshore today, with southwesterly winds bringing warm air into the region today into Tuesday. If you live along the South Coast or especially the Cape, it won’t be quite as warm, as southwest winds will be a seabreeze coming off the still fairly cool ocean. Away from the South Coast, we’re looking at highs well into the 70s, with some places possibly getting into the 80s on Tuesday. Yes, we’re serious, April Fool’s Day was over a week ago. Wednesday is the tricky day. Low pressure will pass by to the north, dragging a cold front across the region, likely producing scattered showers and maybe some thunder. It will still be warm ahead of the front, though the cloud cover and showers will prevent it from getting as warm as Tuesday. However, if we can get some sunshine to develop, temperatures could get into the 70s one more time. We snap back to reality on Thursday as high pressure builds in with much more seasonable conditions lasting into Friday. We’ll start to warm up again for the weekend, but another system will approach from the west, with some more showers possible on Sunday.

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Temperatures should be well into the 70s away from the South Coast on Tuesday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’re not quite ready to say that it’s OK to put away all of your winter gear just yet, this is New England after all, and we’ve had measurable snow into mid-May before. However, we’re getting close. One of the longer-range models shows the potential for at least some wet snow to mix in with some rain across parts of the region towards the middle of next week. That’s still a long ways off, and has plenty of time to change. This same model also shows the potential for the latter half of April to be very wet, which could result in a lot of flooding around here. We’ll worry about that later on though. For now, enjoy the warm weather.

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The GFS model thinks that the latter half of April could be quite damp around here. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine dimmed by some high clouds, breezy. High 69-76, except 61-68 along the South Coast, even cooler on the Cape and Islands.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 48-55.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny through some high clouds once again. High 75-82, except 67-74 along the South Coast, even cooler on the Cape and Islands.

Tuesday night: Thickening clouds. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers developing, maybe even a few rumbles of thunder. High 65-72 by midday, cooler across the Cape and Islands. Temperatures will likely drop sharply in the afternoon, especially north and west of Boston.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 53-60, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 51-58, coolest along coast.

Saturday:  Mostly sunny to start, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 56-63, coolest along coast.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 66-73, except 58-65 along the South Coast, even cooler on the Cape and Islands.

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We’re just a week away from another of the traditional signs that winter has ended. Image provided by the Boston Athletic Association.

Marathon Monday Outlook: A mix of sunshine and clouds. Temperatures in the lower to middle 50s for the start of the race in Hopkinton, rising to the lower to middle 60s for the end of the race and start of the Red Sox traditional 11:05am Patriots Day game.

 

Weekly Outlook: April 3-9, 2017

Good news! We’ve flipped the calendar to April and now we’ve got the surest sign yet that Spring has arrived:

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Opening Day should be a National Holiday. Image provided by MLB.com

The sun is shining and the Yankees are already in last place. Can things get better? Unfortunately, in terms of the weather, the answer is: “not this week”. Monday is definitely the pick of the week.

We start with high pressure bringing us sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. However, by the time we get to the final out at Fenway today, clouds should already be streaming into the region. The storm system that brought all the severe weather to Texas and the Gulf Coast on Sunday will head into the Great Lakes by Tuesday, sending some rain into our area. The rain may start as a little freezing rain or sleet in southern NH Tuesday morning, but otherwise, this storm will be mainly liquid until it ends Wednesday morning. Wednesday looks mostly dry, but after that, we’ve got another slow-moving system heading our way from the Great Lakes. This one will bring in more rain for Thursday into Friday. Clouds and showers may linger into Saturday as an upper-level system moves through, but things should start to improve by Sunday as high pressure starts to build back in.

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The potential exists for 1-3 inches of rain across the region this week. That could cause some flooding problems by late in the week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

There are some models that are showing the potential for warmer weather to finally move in early next week for at least a couple of days. That’s still a long ways off though, so don’t count on it just yet. We wouldn’t put away the snowbrush either, just in case. We have had measurable snow around here in May before.

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The GFS is trying to bring some really nice weather into the region next week. Will it actually happen? We’ll see. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. High 51-58, cooler right along the coast.

Monday night: Cloudy with showers developing, possibly starting as some sleet or freezing rain in southern NH. Low 31-38.

Tuesday: Breezy with rain likely. High 39-46.

Tuesday night: Showers taper off and end. Low 33-40.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for a shower or two, mainly in the morning.  High 46-53.

Thursday: Windy with rain likely.  High 44-51.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 49-56.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with more showers possible. High 47-54.

Sunday:  A mix of sun and clouds. High 48-55.

First Pitch Forecast: Sunshine dimmed by high clouds, winds blowing in from CF, and a game-time temperature around 48 degrees. Go Sox! #WinDanceRepeat

Weekly Outlook March 27-April 3, 2017

As we prepare to flip the calendar from March into April, it looks like a week of typical springtime weather in New England is in the forecast. What exactly is “typical springtime weather” in New England? Why, it’s a little bit of everything. Let’s get to the details.

The week starts off chilly and damp as a warm front tries to approach from the south. As rain moves in ahead of it, temperatures will be on the cool side, so we may even see a little freezing rain in the morning well north and west of Boston. If you live there or have to head there in the morning, take things a little on the slow side. The rest of Monday will be fairly wet, as a wave of low pressure rides along that front across the region. We’re not sure that front ever makes it completely across the region, so if you were expecting some milder conditions, you may be out of luck, especially the farther north you head. Another wave of low pressure rides along the front on Tuesday, giving us more rainfall. While a couple of cool and wet days doesn’t sound good, the rain is beneficial. We are still in a drought across the region, and need plenty more rainfall to break it.

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We still need a lot more rain to break the drought. Image provided by National Drought Monitor.

 

Once that wave of low pressure moves by Tuesday night, high pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday. So, we’ll finally get some sunshine again, especially away from the coastline, but it will remain on the cool side, with temperatures staying a little below normal. (Highs should generally be in the lower to middle 50s as we head into early April.) This brings us to Friday and Saturday. Another system will approach from the west very slowly, and likely pass to our south. That means another extended period of precipitation across the region. Notice, we said “precipitation” and not “rain”. That’s because it might not all be just rain. Yup, the dreaded “S-word” is possible again. It’s a little too early to tell how likely it is, but the best chance for any accumulating snow would probably be in the higher terrain. As we head into April, it becomes tougher and tougher to get accumulating snow around here, especially during the daytime. Oh, it’s happened plenty of times, but you need things to be set up just right, and this doesn’t look to be that type of setup right now. Showers may linger around here into Sunday before high pressure starts to build in again. Right now next Monday looks partly cloudy and seasonably cool. If you have to ask why we’ve included Monday, then you’re probably not from around here.

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Opening Day should be a National Holiday. Image provided by Boston.com

Monday: Periods of rain, possibly some freezing rain well north and west of Boston in the morning. High 37-44, except 44-51 south of Boston.

Monday night: Rain tapers off in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy with some patchy drizzle. Low 33-40.

Tuesday: Cloudy with rain and showers redeveloping. High 47-54.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers tapering off and ending. Low 34-41.

Wednesday: Skies may remain cloudy with some lingering drizzle or showers along the coast, becoming partly to mostly sunny well inland. High 45-52, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 42-49, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Becoming cloudy with showers developing, possibly mixing with or changing to snow well north and west of Boston, especially at night. High 40-47.

Saturday: Breezy with rain likely, possibly mixed with snow well north and west of Boston. High 39-46.

Sunday: Cloudy skies with showers possibly lingering in eastern areas into the morning. High 46-53.

Finally, here’s something that we find this interesting, and since this is our blog, we’re going to tell you about it. There’s a tropical disturbance east-northeast of the Bahamas that is being watched for development right now. Yes, it’s March. No, it’s not unheard of, though it is fairly rare. It’s not expected to develop into a tropical system, but could become quite a gale in the North Atlantic this week.

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It’s not very often you see the tropical suite of models run for a system in the Atlantic in March. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Weekly Outlook: March 20-26, 2017

Astronomical spring starts today at 6:29am, and for part of this week, it will actually feel like Spring. Of course, that means part of the week won’t feel like Spring. Sorry to disappoint you, but the parts that don’t feel like Spring won’t feel like Summer. Yup, that means they’ll feel like Winter. It is still March after all.

The week will start off with low pressure continuing to pull away from the area and high pressure building in. That means sunshine, diminishing winds and mild temperatures. A weak front moves through tonight, bringing some clouds with it, and little more than that. Tuesday will have plenty of clouds and some sunny breaks, but it will be a few degrees warmer than Monday. We’re heading in the right direction, right? Wrong. A stronger cold front moves through Tuesday night, with a few snow showers possible. Skies quickly clear out behind it giving us plenty of sunshine on Wednesday, but it will be windy and much colder. Possibly even cold enough to set a few records. Yeah, that’s cold. High pressure builds in later Wednesday into Thursday with sunshine, diminishing winds. We start to warm up on Friday as a warm front approaches, possibly bringing a few showers with it. Whether that warm front actually makes it through or not is still not set in stone.

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Thursday morning will be chilly, with some record lows possible in the Northeast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

This brings us to next weekend. This is where things get complicated. If the warm front moves through, Temperatures on Saturday could spike into the 60s in many areas, especially if we get any sunshine. If the front doesn’t come through, we might stay in the 40s all day. For now, we’ll stay right in the middle, with upper 40s to middle 50s, but please realize that temperatures could be considerably warmer or colder than what we are forecasting at the moment. Regardless of whether the warm front moves through, a cold front will drop southward across the region later on Saturday, bringing in some showers and cooler conditions, especially if we get into the warm air. That front will stall out south of New England on Sunday while a wave of low pressure moves along it. Exactly how quickly that wave moves along the front and how far south the front stalls are key to the forecast. Right now, it looks to be a little too far south and moving a little too quickly, which means that most of the precipitation moves out before the colder air settles in. That means the rain may end as some snow on Sunday, with only a little accumulation in some spots. However, there are some models that have the front stall a little closer to the South Coast, and the wave moves through a little slower. The result is a better chance of some accumulating snow later Sunday into Monday, and for at least one model, a lot more accumulating snow. For now, we’re leaning towards the solution with little to no snow, but the potential is there for more snow across the area. If anything does materialize, we’ll let you know later in the week. For now, don’t worry about changing any plans, but just keep an eye on the forecast on the off-chance that this does become a problem.

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A few models are showing the potential for highs in the 60s on Saturday. Not all of them show this though. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with diminishing winds. Clouds start to move in late in the day. High 44-51.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 47-54.

Tuesday night: Slight chance for a rain or snow shower, then clearing skies and windy. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 30-37.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, still breezy and cold. High 29-36.

Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy, breezy, and milder with a chance of showers. High 40-47.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for a few showers. High 48-55.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for some snow or rain showers, especially along the South Coast. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: March 13-19, 2017

Spring is almost here. Just keep reminding yourself of that. Red Sox Opening Day is 3 weeks from today. Marathon Monday is 5 weeks from today. Before you know it, we’ll be walking around in shorts and enjoying warm weather. Got those thoughts in your head now? Good, because this week will feel like the middle of winter. In case you haven’t heard and thanks to the relentless TV and internet hype, everyone has heard, the “Storm of the Century of the Week” is going to paralyze the region for the next 6 weeks. OK, we got caught up in the hype for a second. Seriously though, we’ve got ourselves a significant snowstorm heading our way for Tuesday.

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GFS model forecast for the progression of the storm from Monday evening through Wednesday evening. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

The week starts off with the proverbial “calm before the storm” on Monday, as high pressure keeps us dry and chilly. Low pressure will be moving across the Ohio Valley while a second area of low pressure starts to take shape off the Southeast coast. As the Ohio Valley system weakens, it will transfer its energy to the coastal storm, and then things really start to happen.

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It’s gonna blow on Tuesday. The wind that is. NAM model forecast for wind gusts Tuesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The low will move up the coastline Monday night into Tuesday and rapidly strengthen. Snow will break out across the region towards daybreak Tuesday, and will fall heavy at times from Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening. When we say heavy, we mean HEAVY, as in 2-3 inches per hour at times. The snow will be accompanied by winds gusting to 40-50 mph at times, even higher near the coast, and especially across Cape Cod. This may create blizzard conditions at times. If you’ve got plans for Tuesday, either get there by daybreak, or wait until evening to get there, because driving won’t be fun during the daytime hours, and could be quite hazardous. The good news is that the storm will be moving relatively quickly, so the snow will taper off in the evening, and end at night. The other potential good news is that the snow will likely change to rain for a time across Cape Cod. That changeover could make it into southeastern Massachusetts as well, but how far inland is still a big question. Obviously, that will have a big impact on snowfall totals.

So, how much snow are we looking at? You’ve probably heard the apocalyptic forecasts out there of 1-2 feet, or 15-30 inches, or some other crazy ranges. The fact is, with a storm moving as quickly as this one is (it’s only going to snow for about 12-15 hours), it’s tough to get amounts that high. Our preliminary numbers are:

Cape Cod: 3-6″ on the Outer Cape and Islands, 5-10″ closer to the Canal
SE Mass: 6-12″ where it mixes with rain, 10-16″ where it doesn’t.
Southern NH/ME: 10-16″
Eastern/Central Mass: 12-18″, with some isolated heavier amounts.

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GFS model forecast for snowfall through Wednesday evening, This model most closely matches our thinking for snowfall right now. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Things will slowly improve on Wednesday, but with an upper-level low moving across the region, we can expect some occasional snow showers, and winds will remain quite gusty as the storm gets cranked up over Atlantic Canada. High pressure starts to build in on Thursday, but it will likely be another blustery and cold day. For the holiday on Friday (it is Evacuation Day after all), it’ll be another sunny and chilly day, but winds will start to diminish as high pressure continues to build into the region. Clouds return on Saturday, then a weak cold front moves through Saturday night, bringing some snow showers in. An upper-level low may hang around into Sunday, possibly producing more snow showers.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine to start, clouds increase during the afternoon. High 26-33.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy, snow developing towards daybreak. Low 16-23.

Tuesday: Hazy, hot and humid. Windy with snow, heavy at times. High 26-33, except 33-40 across Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Snow tapers off and ends, winds gradually diminish. Low 15-22.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a few snow showers possible. High 24-31.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, still breezy. High 23-30.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 28-35.

Saturday: Sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. Chance for light snow or snow showers at night. High 30-37.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a few snow showers possible. High 31-38.

We will have an update on the storm Monday afternoon. Hopefully, things will be a little clearer by then. Remember, spring is just around the corner. If you keep telling yourself that, you might even start to believe it.