Wintry Mess Tonight and Wednesday?

Another storm system is set to move into the region later today and into Wednesday. While this one will produce a wintry mess across parts of the area, for the majority of us, it won’t be a big deal.

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Current surface map as of 10am EST Tuesday. Image provided by NOAA.

 

A low pressure system is currently moving into Michigan. This is the same system that brought heavy snow to the central and southern Rockies and a significant ice storm to the central and southern Plains and parts of the Mississippi valley over the past few days. This storm will head towards the eastern Great Lakes this evening and start to weaken, while at the same time, a secondary area of low pressure will develop south of New England.

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NAM Model forecast for the next 48 hours across the Northeast. This model is closest to our thinking for this storm. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Along and south of the Mass Pike, this is mainly a rain storm. Rain will develop around dinner time this evening, might be heavy overnight, and will taper off to showers or drizzle Wednesday morning, but likely doesn’t end until Wednesday evening. For Western and Central New England, we have bigger issues.

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Freezing rain forecast through Thursday morning across the Northeast, Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Across the Berkshires, Catskills, and Adirondacks (and possibly the higher elevations of the Monadnocks and Worcester Hills), we’re looking at freezing rain, possibly a lot of it. Temperatures aloft will warm above freezing, but a thin layer of colder air will remain just above the surface. Since that layer is the ground layer in the hills, it will fall as freezing rain. Driving along I-90 through the Berkshires and also west of Albany out to about Utica could be very slick later today into early Wednesday. As the secondary storm takes over early Wednesday, colder air will move back in, changing the freezing rain over to snow, with a little accumulation possible.

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This graphic shows the difference in how you get snow vs sleet vs freezing rain. Image provided by NOAA.

 

Meanwhile, we’re looking at some snow across portions of central and southern Vermont and New Hampshire and into southwestern Maine. In areas that stay all snow, mainly across central New Hampshire and Vermont, we could see as much as 4-8 inches fall by the time the storm winds down late Saturday. The tricky forecast is from coastal Maine and New Hampshire into southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. In these areas, precipitation likely starts as snow this evening, but a change to sleet and eventually rain should take place overnight tonight or Wednesday morning, with a change back to snow possible late Wednesday as the system starts to wind down. How long that change takes will have a big effect on how much snow accumulates. Right now, it looks like we could see as much as 3-5″ near Manchester, NH, dropping down to 2-4″ around Nashua, and maybe an inch or less across the Merrimack Valley and the Seacoast, including Lowell, Lawrence, and Portsmouth. As you can see, with such a sharp gradient between several inches and virtually nothing, only a slight shift in the forecast can have a big difference in what actually falls across these areas.

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Snowfall forecast through Thursday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

The good news is that there isn’t much colder air following this storm. Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal for much of the remainder of the week, with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s. Contrast that with Alaska, where low temperatures for the next several mornings will range from 25 to 55 below zero across much of the state.

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Brutally cold air has settled into Alaska and will remain in place for much of the week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Weekly Outlook January 16-22, 2017

We’ve got good news and bad news in this week’s outlook. The good news is that the majority if the next 7 days will feature some pretty nice mid-winter conditions. The bad news is that late Tuesday and Wednesday might be rather nasty in parts of the region.

The week starts off with high pressure keeping us dry on Monday. By Tuesday, low pressure will start to head towards the Great Lakes. This is the same system that produced a severe ice storm across the Plains this past weekend. As this storm moves into the Great Lakes, a secondary storm will form off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This will complicate the forecast considerably, as it will keep cold air in place at the surface, while warmer air tries to move in aloft. The result will be quite a mess, especially across the interior. From Boston southward, this is mainly a rain storm, with some snow or sleet right at the start late Tuesday. North and west of Boston, it’s a different story. We’ll likely start as some snow, but a changeover to sleet and freezing rain seems likely at some point Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This leads us to a couple of questions. First, when does that change take place, because that will determine how much snow and how much freezing rain we’re getting. Secondly, do temperatures ever get above freezing to allow everything to change over to plain rain? We’ll likely devote another blog post to this later Monday or Tuesday as the threat becomes a little clearer. Depending on how quickly the storm pulls away, precipitation may linger into early Thursday,  but high pressure starts to build in later that day, and remains in control right through the weekend.

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The roads might be in rough shape Tuesday evening north and west of Boston with a wintry mix possible. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, but some high clouds will start to move in late in the day. High 34-41.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Tuesday: Cloudy, showers developing in the afternoon south of Boston, a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain north and west. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Wintry mix continues outside of 495, precipitation changes to all rain inside of 495. Low 28-35 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Precipitation eventually changes to all rain in most areas, though it could remain a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across central New Hampshire. Everything tapers off and ends in the evening, possibly changing back to wet snow in many areas before doing so. High 33-40 from the Merrimack Valley northward, 40-47 south of the Merrimack Valley.

Thursday: Breezy with rain or snow showers possibly lingering in eastern areas during the morning, some sunny breaks may start to develop in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 37-44.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 37-44.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 39-46.

Foxborough Forecast: Skies should be mostly clear Sunday evening with light winds, and temperatures starting in the lower 30s, dropping into the upper 20s around the time the Lamar Hunt trophy gets handed to Mr. Kraft for the 8th time. Patriots 27 Steelers 24

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Hopefully we’ll see a similar picture taken Sunday evening. Image provided by Patriots.com

Weekly Outlook: January 9-15, 2016

We got the snow, now we’ve got the cold. As many of you are reading this, temperatures are near or below zero, thanks to arctic air and fresh snow cover. Don’t worry, it won’t last long. In fact, for a portion of the upcoming week, temperatures will actually be above normal. Combine mild temperatures with rainfall and the snow that’s on the ground won’t last that long.

The week starts off with high pressure giving us a frigid day on Monday. Many places may not reach 20 degrees in the afternoon. Clouds will stream in late in the day ahead of the next storm system.That storm will pass well to our north and west by midweek, and while that means it will be mostly rain, it won’t be all rain. As the moisture moves in on Tuesday, it will still be fairly cold, so it will likely start as some snow Tuesday afternoon. The warmer air will move in aloft first, which means that we’ll go over the freezing rain or sleet for a while Tuesday evening and night, and eventually plain rain by early Wednesday. The rain will taper off and end later on Wednesday, but we’ll actually stay mild, as another storm rides along a front towards the Great Lakes. That system passes to our north and west later Thursday and early Friday, with plenty of clouds and a few showers likely. It will be quite mild though. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if some places made a run at 60 degrees either Thursday or Friday. A cold front moves through on Friday, ushering colder air back into the region. High pressure builds in for Saturday with another cold day expected. Another weak system passes by to the south for Saturday night and Sunday, which may spread in some snow showers across southern areas. For now, it doesn’t look like a big deal, but we’ll keep an eye on it for you, because we know that a lot of you are interested in the forecast for Saturday night (more on that at the bottom).

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Wind chills will be below zero when you head out the door this morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Sunny and frigid, clouds start to filter in late in the day. High 15-22.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 8-15.

Tuesday: Cloudy with snow developing in the afternoon, quickly changing to rain from Boston southward. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Snow changes to freezing rain and eventually plain across north and west of Boston, showers likely elsewhere.  Low 30-37 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Showers taper off and end. A few sunny breaks are possible late in the day. High 44-51.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 50-57.

Friday: Plenty of clouds, breezy and mild, chance for a few showers. High 48-55.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, much colder, some light snow is possible at night. High 28-35.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with some light snow or snow showers possible. High 30-37.

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While snowplows shouldn’t be needed at Gillette Stadium Saturday evening, there is a chance that some snow could fall. That’s good news for the Pats. For the Texans? Not so much. Image provided by NFL.com

Foxborough Forecast:

Saturday evening at Gillette Stadium will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, with temperatures starting in the middle 20s, and dropping into the lower 20s by the end of the game. There is a chance for some light snow, but it’s more likely that there won’t be any at this point. Patriots 31 Texans 10

Weekly Outlook January 2-8, 2017

We’ve flipped the calendar and are ready to start fresh in 2017. Of course, some things never change, like us entertaining and informing you about the upcoming weather. That’s the reason you’re here, right? So, let’s get right to it.

The two things we’re mainly looking at this week are a storm system and an arctic airmass. Since they both won’t be here at the same time, we’re not looking at a snowstorm for the middle of the week. (The end of the week could be a different story. More on that in a moment.) High pressure slides offshore today, and a weak system moves off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Right now, it looks like it may stall too far south to have much, if any, impact around here, but a few showers are possible, with some freezing drizzle well inland. A strong system moves through later on Tuesday. This should bring us some rainfall for a good chunk of Tuesday and Tuesday night. Breezy and colder conditions follow for Wednesday and Thursday, with a few snow showers not out of the question on Thursday. High pressure builds in for Thursday, then a weak system moves in Thursday night and early Friday, with some light snow possible. This will be more of a nuisance than anything else, if it even materializes. High pressure returns on Saturday, then we get to Sunday.

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Tuesday is looking awfully mild east of the Mississippi River. Across the Plains and Northern Rockies? Not so much. Temperatures could be up to 50 degrees below normal there. That’s cold. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Sunday *could* be interesting. Notice that we said “could”, because at this point, it’s 7 days away, and there are plenty of conflicting signals in the models. One model says that high pressure will build in, with sunshine and cold temperatures. One model says that there will be a system passing offshore, with some light snow possible along the coast. One model says we’ll have a classic East Coast snowstorm, impacting all the major cities from Boston to Washington. So as, you can see, we’ve got something to keep an eye on this week. As you’ll see below, our forecast for now is going to be very vague because, as we already said, there’s a lot of uncertainty, and its way too early to make any kind of call. As the week goes on, if it is looking like something is up, we’ll be sure to let you know.

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If you’re really looking for heavy snow, might we suggest a ski trip to the Sierra Nevada? Some places could get in excess of 2-3 feet by midweek. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 36-43.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a few spotty showers or some freezing drizzle possible. Low 29-36 in the evening, then temperatures may rise a bit at night.

Tuesday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with showers likely, becoming a steady rain late in the day. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Breezy with rain likely, heavy at times, tapering off towards daybreak. Temperatures may rise into the 50s across southeastern Massachusetts during the evening, but will drop everywhere after midnight, settling to a morning low of 33-40.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a shower. High 42-49.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for a few snow showers or some light snow, mainly late in the day and at night. High 28-35.

Friday: More clouds than sun, chance for some light snow or snow showers, especially early in the day. High 27-34.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 25-32.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. High 23-30.

Weekly Outlook: December 26, 2016 – January 1, 2017

As we head down the home stretch of 2016, we’ve got plenty going on in the weather department. In fact, we’re looking at three separate storms over the next seven days. So, let’s get right to it.

Storm #1 impacts the region later today into Tuesday. For the most part, this storm will not be a big deal, with some light rain for much of the region. However, when the precipitation moves in this afternoon, temperatures will be on the chilly side. We may see some flurries or sleet in a few spots, but it should all change to rain by mid-to-late afternoon. That’s good if you’re south of Boston. If you’re north and west of Boston, it’s bad, because temperatures will likely still be below freezing, meaning, we’re looking at some freezing drizzle or freezing rain for much of the afternoon. Warmer air will eventually spread northward, with temperatures rising above freezing as we head into the evening, but it may be close to midnight across central and southern New Hampshire before that happens. The rain ends by midday Tuesday, then we dry out for Wednesday, though it will remain on the chilly side. This brings us to Storm #2.

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The Monday evening commute could be a slippery one north and west of Boston. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Storm #2 will impact the region Thursday, and there are still plenty of questions with this storm that we can’t answer definitively right now. What we do know is that a storm will move across the Great Lakes and into central Quebec. A secondary storm system will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast and head northeastward. How quickly that secondary system develops and where it actually tracks will have a big impact on the forecast. Right now, it looks like most of our area will see mainly rain, with the best chance for some snow across areas north and west of Boston. The farther north and west you go, the better the chance for more snow.That storm heads into Atlantic Canada on Friday and really gets cranked up, which means we’re looking at a windy and cold day. A few flurries are even possible.High pressure builds in for Saturday, before Storm #3 comes calling on Sunday.

Storm #3 is the weakest of the bunch, but that doesn’t mean it won’t cause problems, especially since it’ll be New Year’s Day. The precipitation should start out as snow before daybreak, so if you’re out REALLY late on New Year’s Eve, you may have to watch out. However, it will likely change over to rain across much of the region before ending in the early afternoon hours.

As always, if any of these systems become a bigger threat, we’ll have a more detailed post in advance of it. Right now, the Thursday system is the one we’d be most concerned about that being the case.

Monday: Becoming cloudy with some spotty flurries or sleet around near midday, then some freezing drizzle or freezing rain likely in the afternoon, changing to plain rain across much of eastern Mass by evening. High 27-34 north and west of Boston, 34-41 south and east..

Monday night: Any remaining freezing rain across southern NH and the Merrimack Valley changes over to plain rain by midnight, with light rain and showers across the rest of the area. Becoming windy, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Mass. Temperatures gradually rise overnight.

Tuesday: Showers ending in the morning, some clearing takes place in the afternoon. Breezy. High 48-55 before midday, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, still breezy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Thursday:Becoming cloudy with rain likely, changing to snow across central/southern NH and into central MA, tapering off and ending late at night. High 37-44.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, chance for a few snow showers. High 32-39.

New Year’s Eve:A mix of sun and clouds, still breezy. Light snow develops towards daybreak, except rain along the South Coast and across the Cape. High 26-33.

New Year’s Day: Cloudy with any snow changing over to light rain across the region, ending late in the day. High 36-43.

What will January bring? Well, at least one model says that temperatures will be above normal, with near normal precipitation. That likely means we wouldn’t see a lot of snow around here.

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The CFS model says that January will be warmer than normal. Will that be the case? We’ll find out. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Weekly Outlook December 19-25, 2016

“I’m dreaming of a White Christmas, just like the ones I used to know.”

Sorry Bing, it looks like you’ll need to keep dreaming again this year. It’s not going to be in the 60s like last year, but it’s probably not going to be white either. The week will start off quiet though, which is a welcome change from the rollercoaster we’ve been on for the past few days. High pressure builds in with dry and cold conditions for Monday, but temperatures will gradually moderate Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure slides off to the south and east of New England. Another system passes to our north on Thursday, with some snow or rain showers expected. High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday, giving us some nice weather for those last-minute trips to the mall, so that you can finally start your Christmas or Hanukkah shopping. As for Christmas Day itself, for now, it looks to start off dry, but another storm system will be moving across the Great Lakes, possibly sending some rain or snow into the region at night. We’ll have more on that system latr in the week as the details become a bit clearer.

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Remember how warm Christmas was last year? Yeah, it won’t be that warm this year. Image provided by Plymouth State University.

If you’re wondering when we might be looking at another snowstorm, you can probably flip your calendar to 2017. The final week of 2016 looks mild for now, though we’ll need to keep an eye on the timeframe around New Year’s Eve, as at least one model is hinting that something could be brewing around then.

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The week in between Christmas and New Year’s looks like it may feature above normal temperatures. Image provided by NOAA.

 

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 22-29.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 7-14.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 28-35.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 22-29.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 36-43.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain or snow showers possible. High 39-46.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 37-44.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 40-47.

Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy, chance of rain or snow at night. High 39-46.

Here at Storm HQ, we’d like to wish a Happy Christmakwanzakah to you and yours! (And a joyous Festivus to the rest of us!)

Weekly Outlook: December 12-18, 2016

Well, after a week of sunshine and summer-like warmth in Florida and the Bahamas, it’s back to reality for your favorite forecasters here at Storm HQ. And man, is that reality going to be harsh.

As this post is being written, snow is breaking out across Southern New England, with a change to rain already occurring across the Cape. That rain/snow line will gradually head northward early Monday morning, reaching southern New Hampshire by mid-to-late morning, though we could see a period of sleet and/or freezing rain before everything goes over to all rain. It looks like everything ends by early afternoon. While we’re not looking at a lot of snow, the combination of snow and or mixed precipitation will make a mess of the morning commute, so keep that in mind when you head out the door in the morning.

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Expected snowfall before a change to rain occurs Monday. Many of you won’t even need to shovel. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Once the storm pulls away, high pressure builds in for Monday night and Tuesday, with drier and seasonably cool conditions expected. Wednesday could be an interesting day. Right now, it looks like we’ll stay dry as a storm system passes south of the region. However, some of the models bring the storm a little farther north, which could result in some rain or snow, especially south of Boston. Once that passes by, an arctic cold front will cross the region on Thursday. Some snow squalls may accompany the front, but what’s behind it will get your attention. While Thursday will be a rather chilly day, Thursday night and Friday will feature some of the coldest air so far this season, with lows possibly dropping into the single numbers virtually everywhere Friday morning, and highs Friday afternoon staying in the teens and lower 20s. Wind chills will be well below zero, especially in the morning. The good news is that the cold air will be short-lived. As a storm system heads into the Great Lakes next weekend, south to southwest winds will pump warmer air into the region. Snow will develop ahead of the system on Saturday, but should change over to rain as warmer air moves in both aloft and at the surface. In fact, Sunday could even feature above normal temperatures, though it could also be accompanied by some rainfall. We’ll worry about that storm later i n the week.

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Break out the arctic gear Friday morning. Wind chills will be below zero. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain changing to all rain from south to north during the morning, ending by mid-afternoon. Some clearing developing late in the day. High 36-43 from the Merrimack Valley northward, 43-50 south of the Merrimack Valley.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 24-31.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for rain or snow south of Boston late in the day and at night. High 33-4o.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for snow squalls. High 21-28.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy, and cold. High 14-21.

Saturday: Becoming cloudy with snow developing, likely changing to a wintry mix and eventually plain rain at night. High 30-37.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with rain tapering off and ending. High 40-47, though there is the potential for temperatures to jump well into the 50s, especially from Boston southward..

Weekly Outlook?

By now, you’re probably wondering why the weekly outlook hasn’t been posted, especially since it was snowing. Here at StormHQ, we’re taking a little time off, for a vacation in the tropics. Don’t worry, we’ll be back next week. Until then, enjoy the snow (or complain about it), while we enjoy sunshine and temperatures in the 80s in Florida and the Bahamas.

Weekly Outlook: November 28-December 4, 2016

Here we are, in the final days of November and the beginning of December, ad we’re staring at not one but two storms this week that could bring us heavy precipitation. Of course, that precipitation will be nearly all rain, but we definitely need it, as we’re still in the midst of a drought.

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To say that rainfall has been below normal around here for quite some time would be a big understatement. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The week starts off on a sunny but chilly note thanks to high pressure. You’d better enjoy that sunshine though, because once it disappears behind afternoon clouds, you won’t see it again until Thursday. The first storm system moves through on Tuesday, giving us a good dose of rainfall. Things could be tricky to start though. The rain may arrive before daybreak on Tuesday. With cool weather still in place, temperatures may be close to freezing across central and southern New Hampshire when the rain arrives. This could result in a little freezing rain in some areas, so you may want to be careful heading out the door early Tuesday morning. Temperatures should be above freezing across the region by late morning, ending any potential icing threat. South of Boston, it could be a much different story. Gusty southerly winds could send temperatures well into the 50s on Tuesday. The rain tapers off and ends Tuesday evening, but the next storm will be quickly approaching from the west. This storm will likely head up the St. Lawrence Valley, keeping the entire region mild, but with another round of heavy rain late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Colder air settles in behind that storm, and with an upper-level low pressure area moving through, we could see a few rain or snow showers on Friday. High pressure then builds in for the weekend with dry and cool conditions.

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The GFS model is forecasting 1.5-3″ of rain across the region through late Thursday. We need even more to break the drought. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, dimmed by afternoon cloudiness. High 39-46.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy with rain developing towards daybreak, possibly starting as some freezing rain in central and southern New Hampshire. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Becoming breezy along the south coast. High 45-52 north of Route 2, 52-59 south of Route 2.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with rain tapering off and ending in the evening. Low 39-46.

Wednesday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with rain redeveloping by midday. High 48-55.

Thursday: Any lingering showers ending in the morning, otherwise becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 48-55, except 55-60 south and east of I-95.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a rain or snow shower. High 43-50.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 39-46.

Sunday: Intervals of sun and clouds. High 37-44.

We do need to keep an eye on the start of the following week. Most of the models are indicating that a storm system may impact the region Monday into Tuesday. However, there is very little agreement among the models on how strong the storm might be, how heavy the precipitation might be, and what type of precipitation may fall. So, we’re not going to go into any more details at this time. We’re just giving you the heads up to keep an eye on future forecasts.

Thanksgiving Forecast

(borrowed from Elliot Abrams)

Turkeys will finish thawing Thanksgiving morning, then warm in the oven to a high near 190 in the afternoon. The kitchen will turn hot and humid, and if you bother the cook, be ready for a severe squall or a cold shoulder.

During the late afternoon and early evening hours, the cold front of a knife will slice through the turkey and cause it to accumulate 1-2 inches on plates. Mashed potatoes will drift across one side while cranberry sauce creates slippery spots on the other, especially if it mixes in as you turn to the green bean casserole. Please pass the gravy.

A weight watch has been issued for the entire area and we expect intervals of indigestion, with increasing stuffiness around the beltway. During the evening the turkey will diminish and taper off to leftovers and drop to a low of 34 in the refrigerator.

Looking ahead to Friday and Saturday: high pressure to eat sandwiches; flurries of leftovers can be expected both days with a 50% chance of scattered soup during the midday hours. We expect a warming trend baste on where soup develops.

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