Weekly Outlook: January 9-15, 2016

We got the snow, now we’ve got the cold. As many of you are reading this, temperatures are near or below zero, thanks to arctic air and fresh snow cover. Don’t worry, it won’t last long. In fact, for a portion of the upcoming week, temperatures will actually be above normal. Combine mild temperatures with rainfall and the snow that’s on the ground won’t last that long.

The week starts off with high pressure giving us a frigid day on Monday. Many places may not reach 20 degrees in the afternoon. Clouds will stream in late in the day ahead of the next storm system.That storm will pass well to our north and west by midweek, and while that means it will be mostly rain, it won’t be all rain. As the moisture moves in on Tuesday, it will still be fairly cold, so it will likely start as some snow Tuesday afternoon. The warmer air will move in aloft first, which means that we’ll go over the freezing rain or sleet for a while Tuesday evening and night, and eventually plain rain by early Wednesday. The rain will taper off and end later on Wednesday, but we’ll actually stay mild, as another storm rides along a front towards the Great Lakes. That system passes to our north and west later Thursday and early Friday, with plenty of clouds and a few showers likely. It will be quite mild though. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if some places made a run at 60 degrees either Thursday or Friday. A cold front moves through on Friday, ushering colder air back into the region. High pressure builds in for Saturday with another cold day expected. Another weak system passes by to the south for Saturday night and Sunday, which may spread in some snow showers across southern areas. For now, it doesn’t look like a big deal, but we’ll keep an eye on it for you, because we know that a lot of you are interested in the forecast for Saturday night (more on that at the bottom).

hires_wchill_boston_13
Wind chills will be below zero when you head out the door this morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Sunny and frigid, clouds start to filter in late in the day. High 15-22.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 8-15.

Tuesday: Cloudy with snow developing in the afternoon, quickly changing to rain from Boston southward. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Snow changes to freezing rain and eventually plain across north and west of Boston, showers likely elsewhere.  Low 30-37 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Showers taper off and end. A few sunny breaks are possible late in the day. High 44-51.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 50-57.

Friday: Plenty of clouds, breezy and mild, chance for a few showers. High 48-55.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, much colder, some light snow is possible at night. High 28-35.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with some light snow or snow showers possible. High 30-37.

09000d5d82651450_video_cp
While snowplows shouldn’t be needed at Gillette Stadium Saturday evening, there is a chance that some snow could fall. That’s good news for the Pats. For the Texans? Not so much. Image provided by NFL.com

Foxborough Forecast:

Saturday evening at Gillette Stadium will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, with temperatures starting in the middle 20s, and dropping into the lower 20s by the end of the game. There is a chance for some light snow, but it’s more likely that there won’t be any at this point. Patriots 31 Texans 10

Weekly Outlook January 2-8, 2017

We’ve flipped the calendar and are ready to start fresh in 2017. Of course, some things never change, like us entertaining and informing you about the upcoming weather. That’s the reason you’re here, right? So, let’s get right to it.

The two things we’re mainly looking at this week are a storm system and an arctic airmass. Since they both won’t be here at the same time, we’re not looking at a snowstorm for the middle of the week. (The end of the week could be a different story. More on that in a moment.) High pressure slides offshore today, and a weak system moves off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Right now, it looks like it may stall too far south to have much, if any, impact around here, but a few showers are possible, with some freezing drizzle well inland. A strong system moves through later on Tuesday. This should bring us some rainfall for a good chunk of Tuesday and Tuesday night. Breezy and colder conditions follow for Wednesday and Thursday, with a few snow showers not out of the question on Thursday. High pressure builds in for Thursday, then a weak system moves in Thursday night and early Friday, with some light snow possible. This will be more of a nuisance than anything else, if it even materializes. High pressure returns on Saturday, then we get to Sunday.

sfct_anom-conus
Tuesday is looking awfully mild east of the Mississippi River. Across the Plains and Northern Rockies? Not so much. Temperatures could be up to 50 degrees below normal there. That’s cold. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Sunday *could* be interesting. Notice that we said “could”, because at this point, it’s 7 days away, and there are plenty of conflicting signals in the models. One model says that high pressure will build in, with sunshine and cold temperatures. One model says that there will be a system passing offshore, with some light snow possible along the coast. One model says we’ll have a classic East Coast snowstorm, impacting all the major cities from Boston to Washington. So as, you can see, we’ve got something to keep an eye on this week. As you’ll see below, our forecast for now is going to be very vague because, as we already said, there’s a lot of uncertainty, and its way too early to make any kind of call. As the week goes on, if it is looking like something is up, we’ll be sure to let you know.

ndfd_snow_norcal_12
If you’re really looking for heavy snow, might we suggest a ski trip to the Sierra Nevada? Some places could get in excess of 2-3 feet by midweek. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 36-43.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a few spotty showers or some freezing drizzle possible. Low 29-36 in the evening, then temperatures may rise a bit at night.

Tuesday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with showers likely, becoming a steady rain late in the day. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Breezy with rain likely, heavy at times, tapering off towards daybreak. Temperatures may rise into the 50s across southeastern Massachusetts during the evening, but will drop everywhere after midnight, settling to a morning low of 33-40.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a shower. High 42-49.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for a few snow showers or some light snow, mainly late in the day and at night. High 28-35.

Friday: More clouds than sun, chance for some light snow or snow showers, especially early in the day. High 27-34.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 25-32.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. High 23-30.

Weekly Outlook: December 26, 2016 – January 1, 2017

As we head down the home stretch of 2016, we’ve got plenty going on in the weather department. In fact, we’re looking at three separate storms over the next seven days. So, let’s get right to it.

Storm #1 impacts the region later today into Tuesday. For the most part, this storm will not be a big deal, with some light rain for much of the region. However, when the precipitation moves in this afternoon, temperatures will be on the chilly side. We may see some flurries or sleet in a few spots, but it should all change to rain by mid-to-late afternoon. That’s good if you’re south of Boston. If you’re north and west of Boston, it’s bad, because temperatures will likely still be below freezing, meaning, we’re looking at some freezing drizzle or freezing rain for much of the afternoon. Warmer air will eventually spread northward, with temperatures rising above freezing as we head into the evening, but it may be close to midnight across central and southern New Hampshire before that happens. The rain ends by midday Tuesday, then we dry out for Wednesday, though it will remain on the chilly side. This brings us to Storm #2.

hiresp_ptype_boston_25
The Monday evening commute could be a slippery one north and west of Boston. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Storm #2 will impact the region Thursday, and there are still plenty of questions with this storm that we can’t answer definitively right now. What we do know is that a storm will move across the Great Lakes and into central Quebec. A secondary storm system will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast and head northeastward. How quickly that secondary system develops and where it actually tracks will have a big impact on the forecast. Right now, it looks like most of our area will see mainly rain, with the best chance for some snow across areas north and west of Boston. The farther north and west you go, the better the chance for more snow.That storm heads into Atlantic Canada on Friday and really gets cranked up, which means we’re looking at a windy and cold day. A few flurries are even possible.High pressure builds in for Saturday, before Storm #3 comes calling on Sunday.

Storm #3 is the weakest of the bunch, but that doesn’t mean it won’t cause problems, especially since it’ll be New Year’s Day. The precipitation should start out as snow before daybreak, so if you’re out REALLY late on New Year’s Eve, you may have to watch out. However, it will likely change over to rain across much of the region before ending in the early afternoon hours.

As always, if any of these systems become a bigger threat, we’ll have a more detailed post in advance of it. Right now, the Thursday system is the one we’d be most concerned about that being the case.

Monday: Becoming cloudy with some spotty flurries or sleet around near midday, then some freezing drizzle or freezing rain likely in the afternoon, changing to plain rain across much of eastern Mass by evening. High 27-34 north and west of Boston, 34-41 south and east..

Monday night: Any remaining freezing rain across southern NH and the Merrimack Valley changes over to plain rain by midnight, with light rain and showers across the rest of the area. Becoming windy, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Mass. Temperatures gradually rise overnight.

Tuesday: Showers ending in the morning, some clearing takes place in the afternoon. Breezy. High 48-55 before midday, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, still breezy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Thursday:Becoming cloudy with rain likely, changing to snow across central/southern NH and into central MA, tapering off and ending late at night. High 37-44.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, chance for a few snow showers. High 32-39.

New Year’s Eve:A mix of sun and clouds, still breezy. Light snow develops towards daybreak, except rain along the South Coast and across the Cape. High 26-33.

New Year’s Day: Cloudy with any snow changing over to light rain across the region, ending late in the day. High 36-43.

What will January bring? Well, at least one model says that temperatures will be above normal, with near normal precipitation. That likely means we wouldn’t see a lot of snow around here.

cfs_anom_t2m_noram_2016122518_m2
The CFS model says that January will be warmer than normal. Will that be the case? We’ll find out. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Weekly Outlook December 19-25, 2016

“I’m dreaming of a White Christmas, just like the ones I used to know.”

Sorry Bing, it looks like you’ll need to keep dreaming again this year. It’s not going to be in the 60s like last year, but it’s probably not going to be white either. The week will start off quiet though, which is a welcome change from the rollercoaster we’ve been on for the past few days. High pressure builds in with dry and cold conditions for Monday, but temperatures will gradually moderate Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure slides off to the south and east of New England. Another system passes to our north on Thursday, with some snow or rain showers expected. High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday, giving us some nice weather for those last-minute trips to the mall, so that you can finally start your Christmas or Hanukkah shopping. As for Christmas Day itself, for now, it looks to start off dry, but another storm system will be moving across the Great Lakes, possibly sending some rain or snow into the region at night. We’ll have more on that system latr in the week as the details become a bit clearer.

161219052847
Remember how warm Christmas was last year? Yeah, it won’t be that warm this year. Image provided by Plymouth State University.

If you’re wondering when we might be looking at another snowstorm, you can probably flip your calendar to 2017. The final week of 2016 looks mild for now, though we’ll need to keep an eye on the timeframe around New Year’s Eve, as at least one model is hinting that something could be brewing around then.

814temp-new
The week in between Christmas and New Year’s looks like it may feature above normal temperatures. Image provided by NOAA.

 

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 22-29.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 7-14.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 28-35.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 22-29.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 36-43.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain or snow showers possible. High 39-46.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 37-44.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 40-47.

Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy, chance of rain or snow at night. High 39-46.

Here at Storm HQ, we’d like to wish a Happy Christmakwanzakah to you and yours! (And a joyous Festivus to the rest of us!)

Weekly Outlook: December 12-18, 2016

Well, after a week of sunshine and summer-like warmth in Florida and the Bahamas, it’s back to reality for your favorite forecasters here at Storm HQ. And man, is that reality going to be harsh.

As this post is being written, snow is breaking out across Southern New England, with a change to rain already occurring across the Cape. That rain/snow line will gradually head northward early Monday morning, reaching southern New Hampshire by mid-to-late morning, though we could see a period of sleet and/or freezing rain before everything goes over to all rain. It looks like everything ends by early afternoon. While we’re not looking at a lot of snow, the combination of snow and or mixed precipitation will make a mess of the morning commute, so keep that in mind when you head out the door in the morning.

hiresp_snow_boston_22
Expected snowfall before a change to rain occurs Monday. Many of you won’t even need to shovel. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Once the storm pulls away, high pressure builds in for Monday night and Tuesday, with drier and seasonably cool conditions expected. Wednesday could be an interesting day. Right now, it looks like we’ll stay dry as a storm system passes south of the region. However, some of the models bring the storm a little farther north, which could result in some rain or snow, especially south of Boston. Once that passes by, an arctic cold front will cross the region on Thursday. Some snow squalls may accompany the front, but what’s behind it will get your attention. While Thursday will be a rather chilly day, Thursday night and Friday will feature some of the coldest air so far this season, with lows possibly dropping into the single numbers virtually everywhere Friday morning, and highs Friday afternoon staying in the teens and lower 20s. Wind chills will be well below zero, especially in the morning. The good news is that the cold air will be short-lived. As a storm system heads into the Great Lakes next weekend, south to southwest winds will pump warmer air into the region. Snow will develop ahead of the system on Saturday, but should change over to rain as warmer air moves in both aloft and at the surface. In fact, Sunday could even feature above normal temperatures, though it could also be accompanied by some rainfall. We’ll worry about that storm later i n the week.

sfctwc-us_ne
Break out the arctic gear Friday morning. Wind chills will be below zero. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain changing to all rain from south to north during the morning, ending by mid-afternoon. Some clearing developing late in the day. High 36-43 from the Merrimack Valley northward, 43-50 south of the Merrimack Valley.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 24-31.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for rain or snow south of Boston late in the day and at night. High 33-4o.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for snow squalls. High 21-28.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy, and cold. High 14-21.

Saturday: Becoming cloudy with snow developing, likely changing to a wintry mix and eventually plain rain at night. High 30-37.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with rain tapering off and ending. High 40-47, though there is the potential for temperatures to jump well into the 50s, especially from Boston southward..

Weekly Outlook?

By now, you’re probably wondering why the weekly outlook hasn’t been posted, especially since it was snowing. Here at StormHQ, we’re taking a little time off, for a vacation in the tropics. Don’t worry, we’ll be back next week. Until then, enjoy the snow (or complain about it), while we enjoy sunshine and temperatures in the 80s in Florida and the Bahamas.

Weekly Outlook: November 28-December 4, 2016

Here we are, in the final days of November and the beginning of December, ad we’re staring at not one but two storms this week that could bring us heavy precipitation. Of course, that precipitation will be nearly all rain, but we definitely need it, as we’re still in the midst of a drought.

m6pdpt_ma_oct16
To say that rainfall has been below normal around here for quite some time would be a big understatement. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The week starts off on a sunny but chilly note thanks to high pressure. You’d better enjoy that sunshine though, because once it disappears behind afternoon clouds, you won’t see it again until Thursday. The first storm system moves through on Tuesday, giving us a good dose of rainfall. Things could be tricky to start though. The rain may arrive before daybreak on Tuesday. With cool weather still in place, temperatures may be close to freezing across central and southern New Hampshire when the rain arrives. This could result in a little freezing rain in some areas, so you may want to be careful heading out the door early Tuesday morning. Temperatures should be above freezing across the region by late morning, ending any potential icing threat. South of Boston, it could be a much different story. Gusty southerly winds could send temperatures well into the 50s on Tuesday. The rain tapers off and ends Tuesday evening, but the next storm will be quickly approaching from the west. This storm will likely head up the St. Lawrence Valley, keeping the entire region mild, but with another round of heavy rain late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Colder air settles in behind that storm, and with an upper-level low pressure area moving through, we could see a few rain or snow showers on Friday. High pressure then builds in for the weekend with dry and cool conditions.

qpf_acc-us_ne
The GFS model is forecasting 1.5-3″ of rain across the region through late Thursday. We need even more to break the drought. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, dimmed by afternoon cloudiness. High 39-46.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy with rain developing towards daybreak, possibly starting as some freezing rain in central and southern New Hampshire. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Becoming breezy along the south coast. High 45-52 north of Route 2, 52-59 south of Route 2.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with rain tapering off and ending in the evening. Low 39-46.

Wednesday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with rain redeveloping by midday. High 48-55.

Thursday: Any lingering showers ending in the morning, otherwise becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 48-55, except 55-60 south and east of I-95.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a rain or snow shower. High 43-50.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 39-46.

Sunday: Intervals of sun and clouds. High 37-44.

We do need to keep an eye on the start of the following week. Most of the models are indicating that a storm system may impact the region Monday into Tuesday. However, there is very little agreement among the models on how strong the storm might be, how heavy the precipitation might be, and what type of precipitation may fall. So, we’re not going to go into any more details at this time. We’re just giving you the heads up to keep an eye on future forecasts.

Thanksgiving Forecast

(borrowed from Elliot Abrams)

Turkeys will finish thawing Thanksgiving morning, then warm in the oven to a high near 190 in the afternoon. The kitchen will turn hot and humid, and if you bother the cook, be ready for a severe squall or a cold shoulder.

During the late afternoon and early evening hours, the cold front of a knife will slice through the turkey and cause it to accumulate 1-2 inches on plates. Mashed potatoes will drift across one side while cranberry sauce creates slippery spots on the other, especially if it mixes in as you turn to the green bean casserole. Please pass the gravy.

A weight watch has been issued for the entire area and we expect intervals of indigestion, with increasing stuffiness around the beltway. During the evening the turkey will diminish and taper off to leftovers and drop to a low of 34 in the refrigerator.

Looking ahead to Friday and Saturday: high pressure to eat sandwiches; flurries of leftovers can be expected both days with a 50% chance of scattered soup during the midday hours. We expect a warming trend baste on where soup develops.

bcde5ea6309d6f288e8db52fd9bf4d95

Weekly Outlook: November 21-27, 2016

If you’re planning to head “over the river and through the woods to grandfather’s house” for your Thanksgiving dinner, well, you won’t need a sleigh to get there. You will probably need a coat and maybe an umbrella too.

If the snowflakes that many of us saw Sunday evening weren’t enough of a hint, the wind chill when you step outside today will be a bigger one – we’re moved into a colder pattern. Don’t worry, there still aren’t any big snowstorms in the immediate future, but there also aren’t any days where you can walk around in shorts and be comfortable.

hires_wchill_boston_13
Wind chills will be in the upper teens and 20s when many of you head out to work or school Monday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start the week off with low pressure moving across Northern New England and into Atlantic Canada. This will result in blustery (there’s a word you only hear used in the winter) and cool conditions for Monday and Tuesday. A few more snow showers are possible on Monday as an upper-level low pressure area swings through the region.High pressure briefly builds in for Wednesday, but the next storm system will be moving eastward right on its heels. Thanksgiving will be mainly cloudy with a few showers possible, and some wet snow could mix in if the showers arrive early enough in the day, mainly north and west of Boston. Black Friday starts off dry (if you’re heading out for the Midnight Specials), but another weak system will quickly approach, with more showers possible by evening, continuing into Saturday when a period of steadier rain is possible. Blustery (there’s that word again!) and cool conditions return on Sunday.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, windy, chance for a few snow or rain showers. High 33-40.

Monday night: Partly cloudy to clear, breezy. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, still breezy. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: A sunny start, then clouds return in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, possibly mixed with some wet snow early in the day. High 39-46.

Friday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers, especially late in the day and at night. High 43-50.

Saturday: Rain tapers off to showers before ending late in the day. High 42-49.

Sunday:A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 40-47.

Before you complain about how cold it is, just remember, it could be a LOT worse. Over in Siberia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, temperatures today will be 20 to 40 below zero. That’s 30 to 50 or more degrees below normal. Our temperatures, while chilly, will “only” be 10-15 degrees below normal today.

sfct_anom_c-as
Temperatures in Central and Eastern Asia will be 15-30 degrees C (25-50F) below normal today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Weekly Outlook: November 14-20, 2016

Once again, we’ve got another fairly quiet week coming up across the region, with little to talk about. That’s a good thing, because we’re into the middle of November now, and it’s only a matter of time until things get more complicated. (Don’t worry, we’re not going to use the S-Word).

ndfd_t2max_massachusetts_1
The National Weather Service is expected a very warm day on Monday. We’re not sure it’ll get quite this mild, but it’ll still be a fantastic day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, giving us a sunny, mild day today. Tuesday is the complicated day of the week. A storm system will move up the coast, giving us some rain and cooler temperatures, mainly north of Boston. Of course, “cooler” is a relative term, as even though Tuesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Monday, we’ll still be near or a little above normal for mid-November. South of Boston, temperatures could spike back into the 50s to near 60 again on Tuesday, depending on the exact track the storm takes. Once the storm goes by on Wednesday, high pressure builds back in, with drier weather for much of the remainder of the week, along with another warming trend. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised at all if temperatures on Friday and Saturday ended up even warmer than what we have in the forecast below. Another system moves in this weekend with some showers and cooler conditions, but again, things could be a lot worse at this time of year.

How much worse could it be? Consider this. The cold front that will give us showers over the weekend will be extending southward from a storm moving into northern Quebec. Before it gets there, it will be quite a strong storm moving across the Nation’s mid-section later this week. It will likely produce blizzard conditions across the Dakotas, with heavy snow, wind gusts in excess of 50-60 mph, and very cold temperatures. How cold? How does sub-zero low temperatures sound next Sunday morning with 1-2 feet of fresh snow cover sound? Aren’t you glad that you don’t live in Bismarck, North Dakota?

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_dakotas_27
GFS model forecast for snowfall through next Sunday morning across the Dakotas. Image provided by WeatherBell.
gfs_t2min_dakotas_27
GFS model forecast for low temperatures next Sunday morning across the Dakotas. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Mostly sunny for much of the day, clouds start to filter in by evening. High 57-64.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy, showers developing towards daybreak along the south coast. Low 36-43.

Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, thought a few pockets of steadier and heavier rain are possible. High 47-54 north and west of Boston, 54-61 from Boston southward.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers tapering off and ending. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Morning clouds give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. High 53-60.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 50-57.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 52-59.

Saturday: Mostly sunny to start, then clouds start to increase late in the day. High 50-57.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 47-54.