The heat and humidity are on the way out, with cooler temperatures and more clouds on the way for the weekend.
The heat and humidity will continue into Friday with high pressure offshore, but a backdoor cold front will drop southward by late in the day. As the winds shift into the east and northeast, much cooler air will settle into the region. The front may be accompanied by a few showers or thunderstorms, but much of the region should remain dry.
Temperatures Saturday afternoon could be as much as 10-20 degrees cooler than Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
That front will stall out just to our south for the weekend, keeping plenty of clouds in place along with the cooler temperatures. By later on Sunday, that front will start to lift northward again as a warm front. This may bring in a better chance for showers and thunderstorms for Sunday night and Monday, but it will also bring warmer and more humid weather back in.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 67-74.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 85-92.
Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60-67.
Saturday: More clouds than sun. High 70-77, coolest along the coast.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 57-64.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 72-79.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 62-69.
Monday: More clouds than sun with some showers and thunderstorms possible. High 79-86.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Ida. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Finally, a quick word on the tropics. Tropical Storm Ida has developed west of Jamaica. Current forecasts call for it to rapidly strengthen and head northwestward. It could become an increasing threat to parts of the Gulf coast, especially Louisiana or Mississippi, by late in the weekend as a hurricane, possibly a very strong one. There are two other areas, one east of Bermuda and another east of the Lesser Antilles, that could also become tropical depressions over the next few days.
Who’s ready for a nice quiet weekend weatherwise? Might I suggest a trip to Los Angeles then, because you’re not going to get one here, with or without Henri.
The remains of Tropical Storm Fred will continue to pull away this evening, but a few showers are still possible, otherwise, we’ll start to dry out a little overnight. However, warm and humid conditions will remain in place on Friday, with plenty of clouds and some sunny breaks, and possibly a few showers or thunderstorms. Saturday looks to be similar with some sunshine, but also some showers and thunderstorms possible as a warm and humid airmass remains in place. This brings us to Sunday and Monday, which is entirely dependent on the track of Henri.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Henri. Loop provided by NOAA.
As of 11am Thursday, Tropical Storm Henri was centered about 810 miles south of Nantucket, moving toward the west at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 70 mph. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is investigating the storm right now to assess the true strength and structure of it. This should help improve the forecasts for the storm. Henri is fighting off some northerly wind shear as it moves around the edge of a ridge of high pressure, which is preventing it from strengthening. As it reaches the edge of the ridge tomorrow, it should turn more northward, and the shear will lessen. Combined with the fact that it will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream means that it should strengthen into a hurricane. As the same time, an upper-level low pressure area will develop over the Great Lakes, helping to steer Henri northward as well. This is where the largest uncertainty comes into play, and it has a giant impact on the forecast. Does the combination of the low to the west and ridge to the east remain strong and keeping Henri on a northward track, or does the ridge weaken a bit and allow Henri to turn more toward the northeast? If that wasn’t enough to complicate things, we also need to see how fast Henri is traveling at that point. The water off the Northeast coast is not warm enough to sustain a tropical system, so it will start to weaken. The faster it is moving, the less time it will have to weaken before reaching our latitude. These are questions that we can’t answer yet.
Forecast track for Henri from the various members of the GFS Ensemble. Image provided by Weathernerds.org
Since Henri formed, our thinking all along has been that it would pass close to or just south and east of Cape Cod, close enough for some impact across the Cape and Islands at least. That remains a plausible scenario. There are plenty of models that have landfall across Rhode Island or Southeastern Massachusetts as either a hurricane or strong tropical storm, and others that show no landfall and keep the storm offshore. Either way, it’s important to remember that as storms reach this latitude, they become lopsided, with most of the heavy rain to the left of the center, and the stronger winds confined to the right of the center. So, a track near or just off the Cape would spare most of the region from the strong winds, but result in heavy rainfall, especially across eastern Massachusetts. A track across southeastern Massachusetts would bring strong winds onto the Cape and Islands, and shift the heavy rain inland a bit more. The track will also impact the storm surge. With a full moon on Sunday, we’re already going to have astronomical high tides, which can create some coastal flooding on their own in spots. Add in a storm surge, and significant coastal flooding is likely, especially just to the right of the storm track. With all of these things possible, the National Hurricane Center will likely issue a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch for parts of the region on Friday.
Probability of tropical storm fore winds and the most likely arrival time. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Most of the impacts from Henri are likely from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, but again, this is dependent on the track and speed of the storm. Either way, conditions should start to improve Monday afternoon as Henri begins to pull away.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, a few showers possible during the evening. Low 66-73.
Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 79-86. Offshore: Southwest 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots seas 3-5 feet.
Friday night: Partly cloudy, patchy fog may develop. Low 66-73.
Saturday: Partly sunny, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon. High 81-88. Offshore: Southeast 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 65-72.
Sunday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with some showers developing, possibly becoming a steadier and heavier rain late in the day. High 72-79. Offshore: Tropical storm conditions likely
Sunday night: Breezy to perhaps windy with rain, possibly heavy. Low 62-69.
Monday: Diminishing winds with rain tapering off to showers and ending, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon. High 74-81. Offshore: Tropical storm conditions likely, subsiding late in the day.
Heat and humidity are here for now, but changes are on the way this weekend.
High pressure remains anchored off the East Coast into Friday, which means that another hot and humid day is on the way. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up to take the edge off the heat, but they’ll be mainly late in the day. A cold front will move in on Saturday though, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, much drier and cooler air will start to move in late Saturday. High pressure builds in for Sunday and Monday with seasonably warm and dry conditions.
The heat index may approach 100 across parts of the region again Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
After a good soaking this morning, drier air is on the way, but the weekend won’t be completely dry.
Much of Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts received 2-4 inches of rain in the past 24 hours. Image provided by NOAA.
High pressure starts to build into the region tonight, with skies clearing out by Friday morning across much of the region. This sets up a rather nice day on Friday with sunshine and warmer temperatures. A good chunk of Saturday looks decent too, but an approaching disturbance will spread clouds in, with some showers possible at night and into parts of Sunday as it moves through. Sunday won’t be a washout, but it will be cloudy and a little cooler with some showers around. High pressure builds back in on Monday with some sunshine returning.
Saturday looks quite warm across the area. Image provided by WeatherNBell.
Thursday night: Gradual clearing. Low 58-65.
Friday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 80-87. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-10 knots, seas 3-6 feet.
Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 61-68.
Saturday: Thickening clouds. High 82-89. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 63-70.
Sunday: Plenty of clouds with some showers around. High 77-84. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.
Sunday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 61-68.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82. Offshore: Southeast winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.
The Atlantic is starting to wake up once again. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Finally, we’ll touch on the tropics, since we’re into August, which is when activity usually starts to ramp up, and this year is no different. There are two areas being watched in the Atlantic right now. The first wave will bring some showers and breezy conditions to the Caribbean this weekend and early next week, but shouldn’t amount to much. It’s the wave that is just moving off of Africa that bears watching. Some of the models show that system developing over the next several days. Obviously it’s WAAAAAAY to early to determine if it will become anything or impact any land, but these waves will become more common over the next several weeks, with many storms expected to form. Colorado State University issued their updated hurricane season forecast this morning, and they are expecting another 13 named storms this season. Late August and most of September is when we especially need to be alert up here. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.
We’re entering the final days of July, but part of the weekend may feel more like the final days of August.
We’ve got a rather nice afternoon in progress, but changes are coming. A cold front will move across the region tonight, with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall, which would be a fitting end to what has been a record or near-record July for rainfall across the region. While most of the severe weather associated with this system should remain south of our area, we need to keep an eye on areas near the South Coast overnight. If there are going to be any severe storms, this would be the most likely spot.
Most of the models keep the heavy rain to our north, but some have heavy rainfall around here too. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Rain ends Friday morning, but with an upper-level low pressure area moving across the Northeast, we’ll still have some clouds, and possibly another shower or two in the afternoon. High pressure then builds in with clearing and a rather cool airmass settling in for Friday night and Saturday. If you’re up early Saturday morning, you might see temperatures in the 40s in some spots. After a comfortable day on Saturday, temperatures will moderate again on Sunday ahead of another system. This system may produce a few showers Sunday night, then high pressure returns on Monday.
It could be rather cool around here Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 62-69.
Friday: Showers end early followed by partial clearing, though clouds and possibly another shower return in the afternoon, breezy. High 77-84. Offshore: Southwest to west 10-15 knots gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-6 feet.
Friday night: Clear and cool. Low 49-56.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77. Offshore: West 10-15 knots gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-5 feet.
Saturday night: Increasing clouds. Low 52-59.
Sunday: More clouds than sunshine. High 73-80. Offshore: Southwest 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.
Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for some shower. Low 56-63.
Monday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 74-81. Offshore: West 5-10 knots, seas 3-5 feet.
Now that the sun has finally returned, we might actually see it more than a few times over the next few days. Don’t worry, there’s still some rain in the forecast too.
Just some fair-weather cumulus out there today – a welcome change from the last several days. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.
High pressure will continue to build in tonight, which means that you might be able to give the air conditioner a break and open the windows tonight. We will see some clouds come back on Friday as a weak disturbance crosses the region, with a shower or thunderstorm possible in a few spots as well, but don’t go cancelling any outdoor plans you may have for the afternoon or evening. High pressure returns on Saturday with sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures. The next system will be on its way though, with clouds moving in at night, and some showers and thunderstorms likely on Sunday as a warm front crosses the region. The day won’t be a washout, but there will be plenty of cloudcover and it will be noticeably more humid than Saturday. Showers may linger into early Monday before a cold front crosses the region, with some clearing behind it late in the day.
Monday could end up as a warm day ahead of the cold front. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few late-day showers or thunderstorms. High 74-81. Offshore: Northwest winds 5-10 knots becoming onshore in the afternoon, seas 1-3 feet.
Friday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 55-62.
Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, though some clouds may start to move back in late in the day. High 74-81. Offshore: North to northwest winds around 5 knots becoming onshore in the afternoon, seas 2-3 feet.
Saturday night: Increasing clouds, showers are possible towards daybreak. Low 60-67.
Sunday: More clouds than sun with some showers or thunderstorms expected. High 73-80. Offshore: Southwest to south winds 15-20 knots, gusts to 25 knots, seas 3-6 feet.
Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for more showers or storms. Low 63-70.
Monday: Chance for a shower early, some clearing possible late in the day. High 80-87. Offshore: Southwest to west winds 10-15 knots gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-6 feet.
We’re in a typical summertime pattern for a few days, but more rain is on the way.
High pressure is sitting offshore, which means another hot and humid day is expected on Friday, with temperatures well into the 80s and lower 90s in most locations. A few late-day showers and thunderstorms are possible, but activity shouldn’t be that widespread. An approaching frontal system will spread more clouds in for Saturday, keeping temperatures down a bit, with a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially late Saturday and Saturday night. Some of these storms may produce heavy rain, because that’s what seems to happen with every storm this month. That front will stall out near or just south of the region for Sunday and Monday. That means it’ll be cooler with more cloud cover and a chance for more showers and thunderstorms, though areas near the South Coast could remain warmer, depending on where the front actually stalls out.
Some heavy rain is possible across parts of the region this weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 65-72.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 85-92.
Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, any showers end in the evening. Low 64-71.
Saturday: Plenty of clouds, showers and thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon. High 79-86.
Saturday night: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce heavy rain. Low 63-70.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. High 72-79.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.
Monday: More clouds than sun with a shower or thunderstorm possible. High 74-81.
We’re not sure if you’ve heard, but Tropical Storm Elsa is heading this way. It have have some impacts around here tonight and Friday.
Flash Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Northeast, with Tropical Storm Warnings along the coast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
As of 2pm EDT, Elsa was centered about 25 miles southwest of Raleigh, NC and moving toward the northeast at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are down to 45 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Connecticut from New Haven eastward, coastal Rhode Island, and nearly all of the coast of Massachusetts from the Mouth of the Merrimack River southward (sorry Salisbury, you don’t get to play), including Cape Cod and the Islands. Elsa will continue northeastward tonight, turning more toward the east-northeast on Friday, likely passing right across southeastern Massachusetts.
Winds may gust to 40 mph or more across parts of RI and southeastern MA on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Tropical systems have different characteristics when they get up this way, compared to how they look in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. They take on a “rain to the left, wind to the right” appearance. This means that the heavy rain shifts to the left side of the storms track, while most of the strong winds are to the right of the track. In this case, that means most of the wind will be confined to parts of southern RI, southeastern MA, and the offshore waters, but much of the rest of the region can expect heavy rain. How much rain? Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches and possibly heavier, most of it falling between about 8am and 2pm on Friday. Oh, an just to add to the fun for the folks in southern RI and southeastern MA, these systems can and usually do produce some short-lived weak tornadoes, mainly in the right-front quadrant of the storm.
Elsa will produce heavy rain, especially north and west of I-95. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Before Elsa gets here, we’ll have some showers and thunderstorms to deal with this evening and tonight, thanks to a stalled out frontal system draped across the South Coast. Once Elsa’s rain moves out late Friday, high pressure will try to build back in on Saturday, but we’ll still have plenty of moisture around, which means we could pop a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Warm and humid air moves back in for Sunday and Monday (and into the middle of next week), with some showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon, especially Monday.
Thursday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Rain and showers redevelop late at night. Low 60-67, a little warmer along the South Coast.
Friday: Windy with rain, heavy at times, tapering off in the afternoon. High 72-79. Offshore: East Coast Southeast 15-25 knots, gusts to 40 knots, becoming northwest late in the day, seas 3-6 feet. South Coast: Southeast to south winds 20-40 knots, gusts to 50 knots, seas 6-10 feet.
Friday night: Showers end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 62-69.
Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 73-80. Offshore: West to northwest 5-10 knots, seas 3-6 feet.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 59-66.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a shower or thunderstorm is possible during the afternoon. High 75-82. Offshore: East to southeast winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.
Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.
Monday: Partly sunny, chance for a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 77-84. Offshore: South winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.
It’s a long holiday weekend for most of you, but unfortunately, it’s not going to be all sunshine and warm temperatures.
What’s left of the warm and humid weather disappears overnight as a frontal boundary settles south of the region. This will bring in showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce heavy rain. The front stalls out to our south on Friday, with waves of low pressure riding along it, bringing in more showers, along with much cooler conditions. Some of the models are forecasting very heavy rainfall across the region, which could lead to some areas of flooding. We’re not quite sure we believe some of these numbers, but your lawn should definitely get a big drink of water over the next few days.
Parts of the region could see quite a bit of rain this weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather,
Over the weekend, the front washes out, but an upper-level low pressure system will slowly move across the region. This will keep clouds and cool temperatures in place, especially on Saturday, with some occasional showers, but neither day looks to be a washout. While Sunday isn’t ideal barbecue weather for the Fourth of July, it may not be THAT bad. Just keep an eye on the radar if you do have outdoor plans. By Monday, the upper low moves out, and we get back into sunshine and temperatures closer to normal for early July.
Some models try to keep it very cool around here on Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
In the tropics, Tropical Storm Elsa was centered about 345 miles east-southeast of Barbados this evening, moving toward the west-northwest at 28 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for various islands in the eastern and northern Caribbean. The current forecast calls for some strengthening, as conditions remain favorable for the next day or so, but unless it slows down, it won’t strengthen too much. We’ll take a much more in-depth look at Elsa in a special blog post either Friday afternoon or evening.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Elsa. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Thursday night: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers and some embedded thunderstorms. Low 59-66, a little milder near the South Coast.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with more showers, especially in the morning. High 64-71. Offshore: Winds becoming northeast to north 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-6 feet, visibility under 1 mile in showers and fog.
Friday night: Plenty of clouds with more showers likely. Low 53-60.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and cool with occasional showers. High 59-66. Offshore: Northeast 10-20 knots gusts to 25 knots, seas 3-6 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and fog.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 51-58.
Fourth of July: Clouds and some sunny breaks with more showers possible. High 65-72. Offshore: Northwest 10-15 knots, seas 3-6 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and fog.
Sunday night: Showers end in the evening, some clearing late at night. Low 52-59.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 74-81. Offshore: Southwest 10-20 knots, seas 3-5 feet, visibility 10 miles or better.
The first full weekend of summer will feature a return of humidity and heat to the region.
A warm front will cross the region late tonight and early Friday. A few showers may accompany the front, maybe even a rumble of thunder, but they should be gone before midday, and they shouldn’t be that heavy either. Skies will start to clear out in the afternoon, and you’ll start to notice the increase in humidity. With the cloud cover likely hanging on through early afternoon, temperatures may not get that warm, especially along the Maine and New Hampshire Seacoast, where the front will take the longest to move through.
Dewpoints will jump into the middle to upper 60s on Saturday behind the warm front. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The rest of the weekend and Monday will feature typical summertime weather, with sunshine and afternoon clouds, along with a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms. We’ll have a frontal boundary well to our north and west, so we shouldn’t expect any organized severe weather with the front too far away, but any storms that do form could produce some localized downpours and gusty winds. In terms of temperatures, Sunday and Monday look quite toasty, and some models have temperatures getting well into the 90s away from the South Coast. The heat and humidity look to persist into at least the middle of next week.
Monday is looking like it’s going to be hot. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Increasing clouds with some showers possible late at night. Low 51-58, but temperatures may start to rise a bit after midnight, especially south of Boston
Friday: Any showers ending in the morning, some partial sunshine develops in the afternoon. High 72-79. Offshore: Southeast to south winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet.
Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 59-66.
Saturday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 80-87. Offshore: South to southwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 66-73.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92, cooler along the South Coast. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-20 knots, seas 3-5 feet.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 67-74.
Monday: Partly sunny, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89-96, cooler along the South Coast. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-20 knots, seas 3-5 feet.
Finally, we’re just going to touch on a couple of other topics. As you may have heard, some incredible heat is expected in the Pacific Northwest this weekend and early next week. Places like Portland, Seattle, and Spokane could shatter all-time records, with temperatures possibly topping 110 degrees. Meanwhile, in the tropics, a rather robust wave has moved off the coast of Africa, and some of the models show the potential for this wave to develop as it crosses the Atlantic. It’s a little early in the season for easterly waves, but we’ll keep an eye on its progress. We plan to write a special blog post on Friday that will cover both of these topics in greater detail.
Storm HQ 