Author: wxmanscottk

Storm Update – Less Snow, More Problems

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In our forecast yesterday, we told you that some of the biggest questions were the track of the storm system and related to that, how far north the change to sleet/freezing rain would take place. Well, we’ve got some more clarity on that now.

Some of you are already seeing some snow falling this afternoon, but this is not related to the storm. Some ocean-effect snow has pushed into Cape Cod and Plymouth County, and will continue to push inland this afternoon. This will be light, with less than an inch in most spots. The steadier snow will move in late this afternoon and evening from the west, reaching southern NH and the Merrimack Valley first, then the rest of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. It’s after midnight where the changes start to take place.

The NAM model shows the progression of the storm with the changeover to sleet. freezing rain, and plain rain gradually spreading northward early Sunday. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The storm system looks like it will track a bit farther north, passing very close to Boston on Sunday. This will not only allow milder air to move into most of southeastern Massachusetts, but the milder air aloft will also move much farther north than we had anticipated yesterday. Snow will fall heavy at times overnight, especially north of the Mass Pike, but as the warmer air starts to move in, we’ll see a change to sleet and eventually freezing rain move into the South Coast towards Midnight. A change to plain rain is likely before daybreak across southern Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, as temperatures may break into the 40s Sunday morning. Some of the rain could be heavy, which may wash away most of the snow that does fall. Farther north, snow will gradually change to sleet and freezing rain north and west of Boston towards daybreak, with the changeover likely getting into southern NH as well. This will significantly cut down on snow amounts, but could make travel quite hazardous if there’s enough freezing rain.

The NAM model is forecasting up to 1/4 inch of freezing rain in parts of southern NH and the Merrimack Valley. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

By midday, the storm passes by and moves offshore, with winds shifting into the north. This will bring much colder air back in, and rather quickly. Temperatures may get close to or a little above freezing during the morning from southern NH into the Merrimack Valley and the northern and western suburbs of Boston, but by afternoon they’ll quickly drop into the 20s during the afternoon and teens by evening. That will result in a flash freeze, and any untreated surfaces will quickly freeze up, resulting in very hazardous travel. It will also mean that anything you haven’t cleaned off of your car, driveway, sidewalk, etc. will quickly turn into cement. The bitterly cold air will continue to flow in, and temperatures on Monday may struggle to reach the lower teens, with wind chills below zero thanks to gusty northwest winds. These gusty winds may also produce some ocean effect snow across parts of Cape Cod, especially the Outer Cape.

The High Resolution NAM model shows the rollercaster that our temperatures will be on over the next couple of days. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

So, how much snow are we expecting now? Here’s our current thinking:

Cape Cod/South Coast: 1-3 inches
Southeastern Massachusetts/I-95 corridor: 2-4 inches
MetroWest/North Shore: 3-5 inches
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 3-6 inches
Southern NH: 4-7 inches
Central NH/Southern Maine: 8-14 inches, with higher amounts the farther north you go.

While there isn’t any one model that matches our current thoughts on accumulations, the High Resolution NAM model is closest to our current thinking. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

Temperatures will slowly start to moderate on Tuesday, then another system may move in on Wednesday, but this one, believe it or not, may be mostly rain. We’ll see how that evolves over the next few days.

The Party’s Over – Here Comes the Snow

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We haven’t had a decent-sized snowstorm around here since late November. Well, that is about to end, much to the dismay of most of you. We’ve got several different concerns with this system, so we’ll try and touch on all of them.

Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for most of the Northeast with a Coastal Flood Watch for parts of the Massachusetts coastline. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ll start with what’s going on now. High pressure is building into Quebec, and this will bring cold air into the region. Tonight will be chilly, with lows in the teens, maybe even some single numbers. Meanwhile, low pressure is moving out of the Southern Plains. This low will move towards the Appalachians on Saturday, then off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Saturday night. This brings us to forecast problem number 1. Where does the low track from there? This is a critical point, as it will help determine what type of precipitation falls across the area. Some models keep the storm offshore, south of the Cape and Islands, while others bring it right across southeastern New England. We’re thinking it tracks pretty close to the Islands, but stays just to the south. By Sunday, it moves into the Gulf of Maine, and takes all of the precipitation away.

As for the timing of that precipitation, there’s not much disagreement among the models. Snow should move in during the evening hours (7-9pm) from west to east, and end during the afternoon (3-5pm) on Sunday, except across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts, where it may linger into Sunday night. The heaviest precipitation will likely fall between about 11pm Saturday and 8am Sunday, so if you don’t have to be out then, we’d recommend that you stay where you are.

The High-Resolution NAM model shows the progression of the precipitation across the region. Blue is snow, orange is sleet, purple is freezing rain, and green/yellow is rain. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

What type of precipitation is going to fall? Well, that is a BIG question, that is still in doubt for a large portion of the region. It should start as snow for everyone. It will likely change to rain across Cape Cod and the South Coast, and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. In between? That’s where things get really complicated. As we usually see during storms, we’re going to have a “coastal front” set up. Basically, the milder air from the ocean will push inland a bit. If you are south and east of this coastal front, temperatures will be near or just above freezing. If you are on the other side of the front, temperatures will be in the teens. Eventually, this front will collapse to the coast on Sunday, bringing the cold air in everywhere (more on that later). But the surface is only part of the equation. Warmer air will also move in aloft. How far inland it moves is something that that models disagree on right now. With warm air aloft and cold air at the surface, the precipitation will change to sleet or freezing rain, depending on how thick the layer of warm air is above the surface. Obviously, this will have a significant impact on snowfall amounts. Everything should go back to all snow Sunday afternoon as the coastal front collapses toward the coastline.

The high-resolution NAM model shows a well-defined coastal front setting up in the Merrimack Valley and the I-495 belt Sunday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ve got more concerns than just what falls from the sky though. The full moon is Sunday night, which means that tides will be astronomically high. That is usually enough for some minor coastal flooding in a few spots. However, when you add in east to northeast winds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 40-50 mph (or more), then you get coastal flooding in a much wider area, possibly even some moderate flooding in the more vulnerable locations. This is mainly a concern for the high tide that occurs Sunday morning. The winds will also be a concern inland, as it will create blowing and drifting snow, making driving even more hazardous.

We mentioned earlier that the coastal front would collapse to the coastline during the afternoon, bringing cold air back in everywhere. As that cold air comes rushing in, we expect everything to quickly freeze up Sunday afternoon and evening. This will create black ice on the roads, but more importantly, any snow still on your driveway, cars, roads, etc, will quickly turn into cement. You’ll want to get outside and quickly clear everything off, because the longer you wait, the more difficult it will become. Temperatures will continue to drop Sunday night, and as high pressure builds in, skies will clear out, which may allow for viewing of the total lunar eclipse Sunday night. On Monday, temperatures won’t rise that much, with many places likely staying in the single numbers or lower teens. It will still be breezy, so wind chills may stay below zero all day long. Temperatures will start to moderate on Tuesday, but longer-range indications are that we are in a colder (and stormier) pattern now, so winter has finally arrived.

This is the forecast high temperatures for Monday based on the GFS model. It’s going to be cold. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

OK, finally, the part you’ve all been wondering – how much are we getting? As we’ve said, the amount of sleet and freezing rain will have a significant impact on snow accumulations, so we’re going to keep our ranges somewhat wide for now, and if need be, we’ll put out an update on Saturday.

Cape Cod: 2-4″
Southeastern Massachusetts/Southern Rhode Island: 3-6″
I-95 corridor (including Boston and Providence): 4-8″
MetroWest/North Shore: 6-12″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 8-14″
Southern NH/Southern ME (Nashua/Manchester/Portland): 10-16″
Central NH (Concord): 12-18″

The NAM model is probably closest to our thinking right now, though some of these numbers may be a bit higher than our thoughts. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

If time allows, and/or there is a significant change in the forecast, we’ll update this on Saturday.

Weekly Outlook: January 14-20, 2019

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The hype train is already leaving the station – that’s right, there’s a “chance” for some snow next weekend. Since we haven’t had much snow yet this winter (haven’t heard many complaints about that), much of the media is going nuts, salivating at the prospect of a week of trying to outdo each other in the stupidity department. You’ll find none of that here, so let’s just get to the forecast.

We really haven’t that much snowfall so far this winter. Will that change? We’ll see. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We will start the week off with a little bit of snow for some of you, mainly along the coast and south of Boston. Northeast winds blowing over the still relatively mild Atlantic will produce a little ocean-effect snow across Cape Cod and parts of Plymouth County. We’re not talking about much more than a dusting, though a few localized spots could see an inch or even two. Otherwise, high pressure keeps us dry and seasonably cold right through Thursday.

On Friday, low pressure will approach from the west. We’ll see some light snow or rain with this system, with the best chance for any snow mainly north of the Mass Pike. Obviously, this will depend on exact track of the system, but temperatures won’t be that cold, the system won’t be that strong, and it’ll be moving along fairly quickly. So, not that big of a deal. High pressure builds in late Friday into Saturday while another storm system moves into the Southeast. This brings us to Sunday.

A little bit of snow is expected on Friday, mainly north and west of Boston. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Many of the forecast models are showing the potential for this system to head up the East Coast Saturday night into Sunday while high pressure moves into Quebec. This is the setup for a classic Nor’easter, and most of the models are showing this. They mainly show that Sunday will feature heavy snow, strong winds, and likely some coastal flooding due to the astronomical high tides. Some of the models are showing snowfall amounts in feet, not inches. Of course, many in the media have seen this, and are gleefully hyping it up already, while throwing in words like “possible” as an afterthought, after showing maps with model snowfall amounts, meaning that nobody hears the word “possible”. Here’s the thing, this is still 6-7 days away, and as we’ve mentioned more than a few times, the models have been absolutely horrible beyond about 2-3 days. So, why would we suddenly take a 7-day forecast and believe it now? Remember, the storm that hit Washington, DC yesterday was forecast by the models a week ago to bury New England instead. In short, yes, there is a “chance” for a storm next weekend, but we’re not buying what the models are selling just yet. If they are still forecasting this as we get towards Thursday or Friday, then maybe we’ll jump on board and have a blog post about it. Until then? Nope, not gonna do it.

One thing we are certain about for next Sunday is that the Patriots season will continue, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line against the Kansas City Chiefs. Right now, it looks like we’ll have clear skies for the game which kicks off at 6:40pm EST on Sunday, with a game-time temperature around 10 degrees. Obviously, this is subject to change for the reasons we outlined above in reference to the models. As for the game itself, the Patriots will make a 3rd straight trip to the Super Bowl after they knock off the Chefs Chiefs by a score of 34-31.

Monday: Morning flurries along the coast south of Boston, otherwise becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 27-34.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 15-22.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 30-37.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 34-41.

Thursday: Sunshine gives way to increasing clouds. High 23-30.

Friday: Cloudy with a chance for snow north of the Mass Pike, rain or snow south of the Pike. High 33-40.

Saturday: Some early sun, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 24-31.

Sunday: Cloudy and windy with a chance of snow. Highs ranging from the teens north and west of Boston, to the lower 30s across southeastern Massachusetts.

Weekly Outlook: January 7-13, 2019

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Since we’re into January, how about we change things up and get some snow in here? Whaddyathink? Good idea? Bad idea? Don’t worry, we’re not looking at much, well at least not in in the next few days.

The week starts off on a sunny, but chilly note with high pressure in control. Both the sunshine and cold temperatures won’t last long though as low pressure starts to approach the region. Clouds move in late in the day with some light snow developing at night. However, milder air will move in, so we’ll see a fairly quick change to rain south of the Mass Pike, with the change taking place farther north during the morning. Everything winds down by early afternoon, with accumulations of an inch or two possible, mainly in southern New Hampshire.

The Bears got a double-doink on Sunday, we get a double-whammy Tuesday into Wednesday, but ours won’t be that tough to take. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The story doesn’t end there, as another system will quickly follow for Tuesday night and Wednesday. This one will start off as rain everywhere Tuesday night, but as the system moves into the Gulf of Maine, it will bring some cold air in, possibly changing the rain back to snow before ending Wednesday afternoon or evening. Again, we’re not looking at much accumulation, so this is not a big deal. High pressure builds in with much colder weather behind that system for Thursday through Saturday. When we say cold, we mean COLD. As in, the type of weather we haven’t had since Thanksgiving. This brings us to next Sunday.

Highs in the upper teens to middle 20s on Friday? You’d think it was January or something. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Before we get to our thoughts on Sunday, let us say that most of the forecast models have been utter crap (note: technical term) this winter beyond about 2-3 days. This seems to happen every winter, but it doesn’t stop some of the morons that don’t know better from posting maps for a “potential” snowstorm that is a week or more away. As you’ve probably figured out by now, one of those “potential” storms is being shown by at least one of the models for the timeframe of next Sunday/Monday. In fact, over the past 2-3 days, nearly all of the models have shown this storm in one form or another, but never all at the same time. Some of them show the storm staying well south of us, with nothing happening. Some show it cutting right across New England, with rain to the south and snow to the north. Some show it clipping us with snow along the coast and nothing inland. Some show it not developing at all. And finally, some show a crippling blizzard. Of course, it’s the last one that gets the attention of the amateurs, because that’s the best way to generate clicks on their websites. It’s also the least likely scenario.

Of course, Sunday is also an important day because the Patriots host the Chargers at Gillette Stadium that afternoon. The Patriots excel in cold weather and snow, so this wouldn’t be a bad thing, unless you have tickets. The Patriots are 45-10 when the game-time temperature is 34 or colder, 13-2 in the postseason. They are 11-0 in Foxboro, when it snows.

There have been some memorable games played in the snow at Gillette Stadium. Is another one on the way? Image provided by ESPN

As for the forecast for Sunday? We wouldn’t be surprised if there was some snow, but probably not during the game. Obviously we’ll keep an eye on things, and if it does look like a storm is headed our way, we’ll have a special blog post once things become clearer. As for the game itself – Patriots 27 Chargers 23, and a trip to the AFC Championship game for the 8th year in a row.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, though clouds will start to move in late in the day. High 25-32.

Monday night: Cloudy with snow developing after midnight. Low 20-27 in the evening, then temperatures rise after midnight.

Tuesday: Cloudy with snow changing to rain from south to north, ending by early afternoon. Snow accumulation an inch or so from the Merrimack Valley into southern NH, less than an inch elsewhere. High 38-45.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely, possibly a little freezing rain or snow across central NH. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers gradually changing to snow showers before ending in the evening. Little snow accumulation expected. High 37-44.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and colder. High 30-37.

Friday: Mostly sunny and cold. High 18-25.

Saturday: A sunny start, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 21-28.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow. High 23-30.

Weekly Outlook: December 31, 2018-January 6, 2019

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Remember last week when we hinted that First Night could be really cold? Well, it seems as though we were wr….wro….wro….we were a little off.

It is NOT going to be a fun First Night in the Dakotas. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

First Night is actually going to be bitterly cold, if you’re planning on spending it in Fargo, where wind chills will be 25 to 35 degrees below zero when the clock strikes midnight. Around here? It’ll be a tad milder. Low pressure will move from the Great Lakes into northern New England later today and tonight. Precipitation will move in this evening, and it will likely still be cold enough for some snow, sleet, or freezing rain from the Merrimack Valley northward, at least at the start. Elsewhere, just some rain is expected. Milder air will move in aloft, and eventually at the surface too, changing the precipitation to rain everywhere overnight. That warm air may take its time moving in, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire, but New Years Morning will likely be quite mild across much of the area. Don’t get used to it, as a cold front moves through during the morning, with windy and colder conditions likely for the afternoon.

The NAM model shows cold air stubbornly hanging around in southern NH and the Merrimack Valley Tuesday morning, while everywhere else turns milder. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Tuesday afternoon is also when the Winter Classic takes places, featuring two of the absolute best sweaters in the NHL (and two of our favorite teams here at StormHQ) – the Boston Bruins and the Chicago Blackhawks. We’ll refrain from comment about the fact that it’s taking place at the home of the Angry Leprechauns – Notre Lame, er, Dame, or that outdoor hockey games are much better on TV than in person (trust us, we’ve experienced it), but for the game itself, it should be cloudy with temperatures in the middle 30s, which is pretty much perfect for outdoor hockey.

We’re not fans of outdoor hockey games, but we are fans of the Bruins and the Blackhawks. The weather will cooperate, so let’s hope for a great game (and a Bruins victory). Image provided by the National Hockey League.

As we head deeper into 2019, things get quieter (and colder) around here for a few days. High pressure builds in, and we’ll have generally dry and cool conditions for much of the remainder of the week, as we remain in a split jet-stream pattern. Basically, we’ve got a northern stream keeping some storms across southern Canada and to our north, and a southern stream keeping the warmer, juicier storms to our south. This will be the case on Friday when it looks like a southern stream storm will come along and give us some rain, while the northern stream remains locked up in Canada. If you don’t like snowstorms, then you want this pattern to continue. Why? Because if the streams cross, to quote Dr. Egon Spengler, “It would be bad.” That’s usually how we end up with some of our bigger snowstorms in the winter. As the storm moves by, colder air will work in behind it, with the rain possibly changing over to snow before ending on Saturday. High pressure then returns for next Sunday.

New Years Eve: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 37-44.

Monday Night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with rain developing, starting as some snow or a wintry mix from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. Rain ends towards daybreak. Low 32-39 during the evening, then temperatures will hold steady or slowly rise overnight.

New Years Day: A lingering shower early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 49-56 in the morning then temperatures quickly drop through the 40s during the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 27-34.

Thursday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a snow or rain shower. High 35-42.

Friday: Cloudy with rain developing in the afternoon, continuing at night. High 38-45.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with rain, possibly mixing with or changing to snow before ending late in the day. High 34-41.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 36-43.

Weekly Outlook: December 24-30, 2018

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To qualify as a White Christmas meteorologically, we need to have 1″ or more of snow on the ground at 7am Christmas morning. We’re likely not going to have that this year, but that doesn’t mean the ground will be bare in some areas.

The week starts off with a weak system passing south of the region this morning and an upper-level disturbance crossing the region later today and tonight. Between these two, we’ll have some light snow and snow showers across the area today and tonight. Most of us will just see a dusting of snow, but it wouldn;t be a surprise if a few places picked up 1/2″ to 1″. Nothing major, but just enough to make the ground white in time for Christmas. As for Christmas itself, high pressure will build back in with sunshine and cooler conditions. The high will remain in place through Thursday with the dry and seasonably cool conditions expected.

We’re expecting less than 1″ of snow across much of the area today. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

By Friday, another system will be heading towards the Great Lakes. We’ll have milder air out ahead of it, with rain likely. We could see a little freezing rain at the start, especiallyinto central New Hampshire, as the colder air may be a little slow to depart. Friday looks wet and mild at this point. The storm passes to our north Friday night, dragging a cold front through early on Saturday, with drier and cooler weather returning during the day on Saturday after a mild start. Another Alberta Clipper will come through on Sunday with some light snow expected.

If you’re looking ahead to New Year’s Eve – right now it’s looking windy and cold with some snow showers as the Alberta Clipper pulls away from the region. If you’re planning to be outside for First Night activities, the models right now are showing temperatures in the teens with wind chills near or below zero. Obviously, we’ll have a closer look at the forecast in next week’s outlook.

A preliminary look at New Year’s Eve based on the GFS model shows wind chills near or below zero around midnight. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers, possibly mixed with some rain across the South Coast and Cape Cod. High 33-40.

Monday night: Any lingering snow showers ending in the evening, then skies clear out overnight. Low 20-27.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 31-38.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 33-40.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, but some clouds will start to move in late in the day. High 31-38.

Friday: Cloudy, breezy, and milder, with rain likely, possibly starting as a little freezing rain across central New Hampshire before daybreak. High 46-53, possibly staying cooler across central and southern New Hampshire.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, and turning cooler again. High 46-53 early, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Sunday: Becoming cloudy with some light snow possible late in the day. High 28-35.

Weekly Outlook: December 17-23, 2018

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We’re getting down to the end of the year already. Christmas is a little more than a week away now, so this might be a good time to start your shopping. The good news is, that the weather should cooperate for most of the week.

Heading outside Tuesday morning? Bundle up! Wind chills will be in the single numbers. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We are starting the week with low pressure pulling away from the region. We’ve got some lingering snow or rain this morning, but it should end before midday. Skies will start to clear out tonight as high pressure settles into the region behind the storm system. This will bring us a windy and cold day for Tuesday. Winds die down Tuesday night as the high moves across the region, then a moderating trend is expected for Wednesday and Thursday with the high moving offshore.

That brings us to Friday, which is the first day of Astronomical Winter. The Winter Solstice occurs at 5:22pm. If you believe the models though, they are in fairly good agreement that a storm system will bring in some milder air and rain, possibly a lot of it on Friday, which will certainly not feel like winter. However, the models have been utter crap (Note: technical term) beyond 2-3 days lately, so we’re not convinced yet that it will be mild or very wet. We should transition back to a breezy and colder pattern next weekend as Friday’s storm moves into Atlantic Canada.

We could be in for a lot of rain Friday into Saturday, if the GFS model is right. But will it actually be right? Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Rain or snow showers ending early, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon, breezy. High 37-44.

Monday night: Gradual clearing, breezy. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Wall-to-wall sunshine, windy, and cold. High 24-31.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 15-22.

Wednesday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. High 33-40.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine. High 40-47.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 47-54.

Saturday: Plenty of clouds, breezy, more showers possible, especially early. High 44-51.

Sunday: Sun, sun, and more sun, but a bit breezy again. High 35-42.

Weekly Outlook: December 10-16, 2018

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How many of you saw the reports of 1-2 feet of snow in North Carolina and Virginia over the weekend and said to yourself “better there than here”? We don’t have anything like that in our near-future, but that doesn’t mean the week will be snow-free.

MIDATL
Heavy snow fell over the weekend in places that don’t usually get heavy snow, especially in early December. Image provides by the National Weather Service Eastern Region Headquarters

The week starts off with high pressure building in for today and into Tuesday. That means plenty of sunshine and cool temperatures. We may see some clouds and possibly a flurry across the Outer Cape, but otherwise, dry and cold. Tuesday night into Wednesday could be a little interesting though. Low pressure will pass well offshore, but an upper-level disturbance will be moving through at the same time. With cold air in place and north-to-northeast winds blowing over the relatively mild Atlantic, we could see some ocean-effect snow right along the coast. This is the same mechanism that produces lake-effect snow around the Great Lakes. Most of this snow will be confined to coastal areas, especially coastal Maine to Cape Ann, and eastern Plymouth County over to Cape Cod. We’re not expecting much more than a dusting to an inch for these locations, though a few spots, especially on Cape Cod, could see a couple of inches if one of these bands off the ocean stays in place long enough.

ndfd_snow_massachusetts_12
A little bit of snow is possible on Wednesday right along the coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds back in on Thursday with another shot of dry and cold air, but it will be short-lived as milder air (and clouds) start to move in on Friday ahead of the next storm system. There’s still a lot of questions with this system, namely where it actually tracks, but it does look to be milder, so we’re probably talking about rain (because we haven’t had enough of that in the last 3 months!) Some models show the potential for heavy rain, others don’t have as much. Some have it getting quite mild on Saturday, while others have it mild, but not that warm. As long as you’re not shoveling it, you probably don’t care that much, right? A second storm likely follows on Sunday, but this one looks like it will remain well to the south, likely too far south to have much, if any, impact on the region, other than to help drag more cold air down from Canada.

GFS 50-STATES USA undefined undefined 144
At least one model shows the potential for a mild day on Saturday, though it could be quite wet. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Mostly sunny, except partly sunny across Cape Cod. High 29-36.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 14-21.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine, except for Cape Cod once again. High 30-37.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 19-26.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, some light snow or flurries possible along the east coast. High 28-35.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 30-37.

Friday: Increasing clouds and milder. High 41-48.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with periods of rain likely. High 45-52.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 38-45.

Weekly Update: December 3-9, 2018

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We’re into December already, which means that 2018 is nearly over.  Before we officially turn the page, we’ll just let you know that this was one of the wettest Novembers ever across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, and in many locations it was the wettest on record. The same could also be said for meteorological autumn as a whole (defined as the months of September, October, and November.)

November
This was one of the wettest Novembers on record for much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

 

December started off on a wet note, which a system producing an inch or so of rain across the area late Saturday night into Sunday, but much of the upcoming week should be dry. Yes, you can put your umbrella and raincoat away for now. In fact, you won’t even need a heavy jacket today, as it will be quite mild (by December standards). We’ll start the morning off with some patchy dense fog, which may have trouble burning off due to the low December sun angle. However, once it does, we’ll get some sunshine, which may help temperatures climb into the 50s in many areas. The warmth will be short-lived however, as a strong cold front will move through late in the day.

High pressure builds in for Tuesday through Thursday with dry and much colder conditions. We’ll have plenty of wind on Tuesday as well, creating rather chilly wind chills. For Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll need to keep an eye on the potential offshore storm system, but right now it looks like it will stay too far offshore to have any impact here. Another cold front moves through late Thursday, bringing us even more cold air for the end of the week and start of the weekend. Parts of the area may struggle to get into the 30s on Saturday.

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Heading out Friday night? Bundle up! Wind chills may be in the single numbers and lower teens in the evening. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

After that, things get complicated. For Sunday (and/or next Monday), most of the models have been showing the potential for a coastal storm. The problem is, none of these models have been consistent at all. On some runs, the models show the storm staying well to our south. Sometimes, they’ll show no storm at all. Other times, they’ll show a classic Nor’easter with heavy snow inland and rain along the coast. Other times, they show a storm that buries the South Coast, but has virtually no precipitation at all north of Boston. These models never seem to show the same solution from one run to the next, and they don’t seem to agree with one another either. Given that it’s a week away, this isn’t too much of a surprise. So for now, we’ll just keep an eye on it. If the threat does materialize, we’ll have a special blog post later in the week, once we’re a little more certain about what may or may not happen.

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This is the last 12 runs (3 days worth) of the GFS model for next Sunday night. Notice how much the forecast varies from one run to the next. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning fog, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy.  High 49-56.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds., breezy, and colder. High 30-37.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 16-23.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, some clouds move in during the afternoon. High 30-37.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for a rain or snow shower late in the day and at night. High 34-41.

Friday: Some morning clouds, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 31-38.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 26-33.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for snow or rain. High 30-37.

Weekly Outlook: November 26-December 2, 2018

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It’s going to rain again. No, we’re not kidding. Mother Nature has apparently decided that we need more rain. A lot of it in fact. Yes, really. So keep your umbrellas handy, you’ll need them more than once this week.  Better than keeping the shovels ready, right?

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With less than a week to go, the fall has been among the 3 wettest on record for much of southern and southeastern New England. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

We start the week off with, you guessed it – rain. Low pressure will head into the eastern Great Lakes today. This is the same system that produced blizzard conditions from the Rockies across the Plains and into the Chicago area over the weekend. We’ll be on the warm side of it, so we just get rain. A lot of rain, but still, just rain. Unless of course, you’re in the Berkshire, or the Lakes Region of New Hampshire (or maybe interior southern Maine). The heaviest rain is expected from late this afternoon into tonight, just in time to make your Monday afternoon commute even more miserable. We may also have some gusty winds accompanying the rain, especially along the coastline.

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Much of the region may receive another 1-2 inches of rain over the next day or two. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The rain winds down late Monday night, and everything improves on Tuesday, right? Not quite. An upper-level low pressure area will slowly move across the region during Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep plenty of clouds around, though a few sunny breaks are possible at times. We’ll still have some pop-up showers at times, but since it’ll be turning colder, some of those showers could contain some wet snow.

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The GFS model is forecasting the region to be cloud-free Friday morning, except possibly on the Outer Cape. Will it actually happen? We’ll find out. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure finally builds in for Thursday and Friday, which means you can put the umbrellas away for a few days and actually use your sunglasses! That’s right, the sun will return! Oh, it’ll still be chilly, it is the end of November after all. The clouds come back in late Friday as a weak storm system moves toward the area. It’ll give us a few rain or snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning. That system moves out quickly, but another one quickly follows that will be more potent. In fact, it will behave similarly to today’s storm. We’ll have rain moving in for Sunday, possibly heavy. We need more rain, right? Again, would you rather have more rain or snow instead? That’s what we thought. Longer-range models indicate that the stormy pattern will likely continue into next week. Eventually it’ll be cold enough that one of these storms will be snow. Which one? We can’t say for sure at this point, but you know it’s coming at some point.

Monday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with rain developing, possibly heavy in the afternoon. High 40-47.

Monday night: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly heavy in the evening, tapering off overnight. Low 36-43.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, chance for a shower or two. High 39-46.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 26-33.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks at times, a few rain or snow showers are also possible. High 36-43.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 38-45.

Friday: Sunny in the morning, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. Some rain or snow showers are possible at night. High 36-43.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, rain or snow showers ending early, then rain redevelops overnight. High 38-45.

Sunday:  Cloudy with periods of rain. High 43-50, possibly warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.