Weekly Outlook: December 5-11, 2022

There’s a considerable amount of uncertainty in this week’s forecast, specifically the end of the week and next weekend, but even the first part of the week isn’t so clear-cut.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, resulting in a rather nice day by early December standards. Temperatures will start off cool, but with sunshine we’ll warm up nicely into the 40s in most spots. Clouds will start to stream in and thicken up during the afternoon and evening as a frontal system begins to approach from the west. Rain will develop during the day on Tuesday, but the temperatures are a bit of a question mark. Winds will shift into the southeast, allowing relatively milder air to move into parts of the region, but across the interior, the cooler air may hang on for quite a while. This is actually fairly typical for this time of year, and where the forecast models often struggle. They usually bring the warmer air in too quickly, but it often takes a lot longer than expected away from the coastline. This is more prevalent when there is snowcover, but it is not always necessary. The warmer air should eventually spread across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, with highs on Wednesday getting into the 50s in many locations. The rain will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as well, and while it may not be raining the entire time, some locally heavy rain is possible in spots. Rain eventually winds down Wednesday night as a cold front finally crosses the region, but it may not completely move offshore until Thursday morning. Skies may be slow to clear on Wednesday, and temperatures will turn cooler, but will probably still be above normal.

Normal high temperatures for early December are in the lower to middle 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Friday and the weekend is where the forecast confidence goes right down the tubes. The upper-level pattern will begin to change, with a blocking pattern setting up. A strong area of high pressure will settle in over Greenland, with a broad upper-level low pressure system setting up over eastern Canada. Exactly where these features setup will have a drastic impact on our weather. In some cases, this setup can result in a rather stormy pattern across our area, but if the features aren’t in the right spot, then storms could mostly shift south of us, and we stay cold and dry. At various times over the past several days, the models have indicated that either scenario is possible. A low pressure system will move out of the Tennessee Valley and head toward the Mid-Atlantic states on Friday, moving offshore and then likely meandering around off the East Coast through the weekend. Is the storm far enough north initially to bring us some rain (or snow)? When the storm is hanging around during the weekend, will it impact our area at all? If so, what will those impacts be? These are questions that just cannot be answered at this time, as there is just too much uncertainty. We are fairly sure that temperatures will turn cooler as the pattern changes, but will they still be above normal, closer to normal, or even below normal next weekend? There’s plenty of cold air that’s been building up in Canada, but will it get in here next weekend, or will it move in during the following week? Again, at this point, we just don’t know. We should have more clarity on Thursday when we publish our Weekend Outlook.

The models all have a storm off the East Coast next Saturday morning, but the details vary widely. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Mostly sunny through midday, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Monday night: Increasing and thickening clouds. Low 31-38.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon. High 49-56.

Tuesday night: Periods of rain and showers. Low 42-49.

Wednesday: Occasional rain and showers, ending at night. High 49-56.

Thursday: Becoming partly sunny. High 47-54.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for showers. High 40-47.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for snow or rain showers. High 37-44.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow or rain showers. High 39-46.

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