Weekly Outlook: July 8-14, 2019

If you opted to take your vacation this week instead of during the holiday week, you’re in luck, because we’ve got a fantastic stretch of summer weather coming. The entire week won’t be spectacular, but most of it will.

Dewpoints will only be in the 50s to lower 60s for much of the region this afternoon, making for a comfortable day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start off with high pressure in control. This will give us sunshine, warm temperatures, and low humidity through Wednesday. In other words, nearly perfect weather for early July. The only potential fly in the ointment? High-level smoke from forest fires in Canada could dim the sunshine late Tuesday and especially on Wednesday. Humidity levels will start to increase on Wednesday as well, and more noticeably on Thursday as a cold front starts to approach the region.

Models show that smoke from Canadian wildfires could drift across the region on Wednesday, resulting in a hazy day with filtered sunshine. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday looks to be a very warm to hot and humid day, but clouds will be moving in as the cold front gets closer. Showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially late in the day and at night, ending early Friday. The timing of the storms makes severe weather less likely, but with plenty of moisture available, we could be looking at some storms producing very heavy rainfall.

High pressure builds in behind the front later on Friday into Saturday with warm but drier conditions. Sunday could be dry as well, but this is where things get tricky. There’s a low pressure system in the Southeast right now that is expected to drift southward into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Once it gets into the Gulf and sits there for a day or two, there’s a decent chance it could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Many of the forecast models are showing this potential.

The ECMWF Ensemble is showing a 90% chance of a tropical depression forming in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico between Tuesday and Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Whether a storm forms or not, heavy rain is likely across the Southeast and the Gulf Coast of the next several days. If the storm does form, we’ll have to see what kind of track it takes. It will likely meander around for a few days, but some models are showing the possibility that the system, or what’s left of it, could move inland, and then head towards the Mid-Atlantic states late in the weekend or early next week. If that is the case, it could spread some rainfall into the region. Or, maybe it won’t. Tropical systems can be very unpredictable at times, and this one hasn’t even formed yet, so all of this is just speculation right now. Sunday could, and probably will, end up as another delightful day across our region. But, that is not definite yet. This may end up much ado about nothing for us, but since there is the chance it won’t be, we wanted to let you know that there’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on later this week.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 56-63.

Tuesday: Sun, sun, and more sun. High 83-90.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Hazy sunshine, dimmed by high-level smoke. High 84-91.

Thursday: Some sun early, then clouds move in. Breezy. Showers and thunderstorms develop towards evening, continuing overnight. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall. High 83-90.

Friday: A few lingering showers early, then becoming partly sunny with a chance for a few more showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 78-85.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 82-89.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.

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