Weekly Outlook: September 25-October 1, 2017

Yup, you read that headline right. October is just about here. Baseball hits the postseason, football is in full swing, hockey is starting up, the leaves are starting to change colors, and pumpkin everything is in the stores. Within the next few days you’ll probably start to see Christmas stuff showing up as well if you haven’t already.

As September ends and October begins, what type of weather do you normally think of? Record heat, right? You thought we were talking about something different, didn’t you? That’ll come soon enough. For now, enjoy the summer-like temperatures, they’ll be here for the next several days, thanks to a large area of high pressure.

Record high temperatures are possible for many locations across the Northeast today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Not only is that high pressure area going to keep us dry and warm, it’s going to block Hurricane Maria from coming up the coast (more on Maria in a bit). Alas, all good things must come to an end, and in this case, a cold front is responsible. It will produce a few showers, maybe even a thunderstorm, for late Wednesday and more likely Thursday. One thing we will need to keep an eye on, is if the cold front interacts with Maria when it is well offshore. If it does interact with Maria, it could result in a period of heavy rain. Right now, if this were to occur, it would most likely be either offshore or over Atlantic Canada, but there is a chance it could happen closer to us, especially Cape Cod. High pressure then builds in behind the front for Friday and the weekend with much cooler conditions. It will likely be drier as well, but that’s not set in stone yet. Some of the models show a weak disturbance moving through on Saturday that could produce some showers, while other models have that disturbance slide off to our south. We’re leaning towards the drier solution for now, but confidence is a little less than normal.

Model forecasts for the track of Hurricane Maria. Another landfall is not expected. Image provided by the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

As for the tropics, we’ve got two hurricanes in the Atlantic right now, Lee and Maria. After blasting the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico earlier in the week as a Category 4-5 Hurricane, Maria has weakened considerably, and is now a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph. As of early Monday morning Maria was centered about 375 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving toward the north at 8 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Surf City, North Carolina northward to the Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Maria should continue northward for the next couple of days while slowly weakening, passing east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but close enough for some gusty winds and rainfall to impact the region. By mid-week, Maria will encounter strong westerly winds and upper levels, which will make the storm take a big right turn, and head out to sea.

Model forecasts for the track of Hurricane Lee. This will be another “fish storm”. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Lee also has maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, and is centered about 900 miles east of Bermuda, drifting toward the east-southeast at 3 mph. Lee may strengthen a bit over the next day or two while turning more towards the west. Eventually, a turn more towards the north and northeast is expected, keeping the storm over open waters for its entire lifespan.

Monday: Some patchy fog early, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 82-89, cooler right along the coast.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Tuesday: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 78-85.

Thursday: Chance for showers early, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 73-80.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 63-70.

Saturday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a few showers. High 61-68.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 61-68.


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