“It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas”

Sure, there’s some snow on the ground in southern New Hampshire, but it won’t last too long, and the rest of us have bare ground. However, there is a chance we could have a White Christmas for parts of the region, depending on a potential storm system next weekend.

We’re starting the week on a chilly note, in the wake of the system to moved through Saturday night. We’ll turn a little milder on Tuesday as high pressure slides eastward but another weak cold front will move through. How weak? Aside from a few clouds, you’ll barely notice it, except for the fact that it’ll turn a little cooler once again. A low pressure system will pass south and east of the region on Wednesday while a second one passes well to the north. The southern system may spread some light rain into parts of eastern Massachusetts, while the northern one has little impact other than some clouds. Some of the models show the possibility of the rain spreading farther inland, where some colder air could be in place. This would imply the potential for a little freezing rain from southern New Hampshire into parts of central Massachusetts. We’re not confident that will be the case, but do acknowledge that it is possible. High pressure builds in with drier and colder conditions on Thursday.

At this point, we feel compelled to remind you that the forecast models have really struggle beyond 2-3 days lately. So, the forecast for Christmas Weekend is highly uncertain, and you should treat it that way.

A weak disturbance may cross the region on Christmas Eve with some snow showers possible. Christmas Day is very uncertain at this point. Low pressure will head across the Great Lakes and into southern Canada, sending a warm front this way. The question is, does a secondary area of low pressure form along this front, and if so, where does it track, and also, how strong does it get? At this point, a scenario similar to the one we just had on Saturday seems plausible, with snow changing to a wintry mix and possibly rain inland, and rain possibly starting as some snow along the coast. Of course, this is all subject to change and some fine-tuning as we go through the next several days. An upper-level low will follow for Sunday, keeping some clouds and possibly a few lingering snow showers around.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 30-37.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Tuesday: Sunshine through some high clouds. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, some light rain is possible in eastern Massachusetts, possibly a little freezing rain across the interior. High 35-42, except 43-50 across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 30-37.

Friday: Cloudy with some snow showers possible. High 36-43.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 39-46.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for a few snow showers. High 35-42.

We’re in a fairly active weather pattern, but despite that, we’re not going to have too much going on for a good portion of this week.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, bringing us sunshine and mild temperatures today. A weak frontal system drops southward across the region on Tuesday with a few clouds, but it will bring slightly cooler temperatures. High pressure passes by to the north on Wednesday while that weak front starts to head northward again as a warm front. It will send some clouds into the region on Wednesday. Some showers are likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures may be near freezing for a while Wednesday evening into southern New Hampshire before the milder air moves back in, which means a period of icing or even some wet snow is possible as the precipitation overspreads the region.

Thursday looks to be quite mild once again, with temperatures well into the 50s, possibly topping 60 in some locations. However, low pressure will be moving across southern Canada, dragging a cold front towards the area. Some showers may accompany the front as it moves through Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front on Friday with drier and cooler conditions.

Next weekend is where there is considerable uncertainty. The models have done rather poorly beyond 2 or 3 days recently, so looking ahead 6 days is a low-confidence forecast to begin with. However, the models seem to come up with a different solution nearly every run lately, and none of them agree with the others. A wave of low pressure may move toward the region for Saturday, but exactly where it goes (or if it even develops), is a giant question mark. Some models bring it well north of us, resulting in mild conditions and rain. Some bring in close to or over the region, resulting in a wintry mix, and some bring it south of the region, which could mean snow, or it stays too far south and we get no impacts at all. At this point, any of those solutions could be the right one. As Ozzy Osbourne famous sang “Don’t look at me for answers, don’t ask me, I don’t know.”

Sunday looks to be dry and cool with high pressure building back in, but that could be impacted by what happens (or doesn’t happen) on Saturday. We should have more clarity on that when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Monday: Some clouds in the morning, then becoming sunny. High 44-51.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely at night, possibly starting as some freezing rain or wet snow across southern New Hampshire. High 39-46.

Thursday: Cloudy, breezy, and mild, any showers ending in the morning. High 52-59.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 47-54.

Saturday: Partly to mostly ________ with a chance of _______. (We’ll fill in the blanks later this week). High 37-44.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 33-40.

We’ve got some rather typical December weather coming up this week with the possibility of some snow, temperatures in the 60s, and thunderstorms. Wait, what?

Low pressure will move across southeastern Canada today, dragging a warm front across the region this morning. Some showers are likely ahead of the front, but once it pushes through, gusty southerly winds will bring unseasonably mild conditions in. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the afternoon and evening for parts of southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island, as those southerly winds could gust as high as 40-50 mph at times. Temperatures should get to 60 in much of the region despite plenty of clouds, though it wouldn’t be surprising if we saw more than a little sunshine during the afternoon, which could allow for even milder temperatures than we’re currently expecting.

A strong cold front will move through by evening, with another round of showers ahead of that front, possibly even some thunderstorms. As the much cooler air sweeps in behind the front on gusty west to northwest winds, we could see a few wet snowflakes mix in with the rain before it ends across parts of southern New Hampshire.

High pressure builds in on Tuesday with dry and seasonably cool conditions, though there are some indications that a few streamers of lake-effect snow could eventually survive the trip eastward and move across the region during the afternoon. It shouldn’t amount to anything more than some scattered flurries, but it is a possibility. Clouds move right back into the region by Tuesday evening ahead of another storm system.

Editorial note: With an active and fast-moving pattern in place, many of the forecast models have been struggling mightily to the point of being useless beyond 2 or 3 days. With that in mind, everything below is highly uncertain, with lower confidence than usual. We’re giving you our current thoughts and “best guess” for lack of a better term, but there’s a decent chance that all of this could change, especially later in the week.

There is considerable uncertainty in the evolution and track of our mid-week storm system, but the basics are that it will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and pass south of New England. How far south is unknown at this point, and will have a significant impact on the forecast. The models are nowhere near close to a consensus at this point, with solutions that range from a track well to the south with little to no impact, to a track closer to the region with the potential for a period of light to perhaps moderate snow across the region with rain near the south coast. For now, our preliminary thinking is a track a decent ways south of the region, with just some light snow, with rain right along the coast. Obviously this is subject to change, and depending on how things look, we may write another blog post tomorrow, since this could be the first accumulating snow of the season for parts of the region. Given the high degree of uncertainty, we’re not going to mention any amounts at this point, and if you see anyone online or in the media posting snow maps you should ignore them, because they’re just as clueless as everyone else.

High pressure builds back in for Thursday with dry and chilly conditions, then another storm may quickly follows for Friday. Some of the models show little to no precipitation with this system others show the chance for some rain, starting as snow north and west of Boston. We’ll obviously have a better idea on this system when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday, but for now, we’re just going to call it a chance of rain or snow. That system moves out Friday night, but the active pattern remains in place, with yet another system quickly moving in for the weekend. This one looks much milder, with rain and breezy conditions, though it could end as some snow across the interior as colder air moves in on the backside of the storm.

Monday: Early showers, then some sunny breaks develop during the afternoon, becoming windy and mild. High 62-69.

Monday night: Showers and possibly some thunderstorms during the evening, skies start to clear out late at night. Some wet snow may mix with the rain before it ends from southern New Hampshire into central Massachusetts. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and much cooler, clouds stream back in late in the day. Chance for a few flurries. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of snow, except snow or rain along the coast. High 31-38.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 32-39.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 42-49.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild with a chance of showers. High 53-60.

Sunday: Showers may mix with wet snow before ending in the morning. becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 43-50.