Weekly Outlook: January 8-14, 2017

So, has the past week been cold enough for ya? Don’t worry, the cold air is finally departing, and we’ve even got some actual mild air in the forecast. We’ve also got the potential for a wintry mess too, so let’s get to the details.

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The first week of January has seen temperatures average 15-25 degrees below normal across most of the Northeast. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The week starts off with clouds and some snow showers (rain showers across Cape Cod) ahead of a cold front. Don’t worry, we’re not expecting much (if any) accumulation, but the bigger story will be temperatures actually getting into the 30s across the area. It’s going to feel downright balmy compared to the past week. The front moves through tonight, and the snow or rain showers end. High pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions, but temperatures will remain close to where they should be in early January. After that, we jump on a bit of a rollercoaster.

Low pressure will head into the Great Lakes on Thursday while high pressure moves offshore. This means southwest winds will bring unseasonably mild air into the region. Temperatures will get well into the 40s in many locations. We’ll have plenty of clouds, but will anyone care with those temperatures? We didn’t think so. Friday looks to be even warmer, with upper 40s and 50s for much of the region, possibly even close to 60 if you believe one model (see below). It’ll be accompanied by rain and gusty winds, but again, is anyone going to care? It’s going to be mild!

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Yes, this is really the GFS forecast for Friday’s high temperatures. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Saturday is where we get to the real problems. As that initial system moves by, a cold front trailing it will move towards the region while another system moves towards the Northeast from the Tennessee Valley. The question is, and it’s a fairly important one, when does that cold front move through the area?  One model says that it waits until Sunday morning, so Saturday would be another warm, but wet day. Another model brings the front through on Saturday, with cold air rapidly moving in, which means that we could have some freezing rain or a cold rain to deal with across much of the area.  So we could be in the 50s and raining, in the 20s with freezing rain, or somewhere in between. That’s a wide variety of options, and at this point, we’re not sure which way to go. Complicating matters is the fact that the Patriots play the Titans in a playoff game in Foxboro that evening, so the weather could impact the game. Things should start to get a little more clear as the week goes on. Conditions should improve on Sunday, behind the system.

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The various members of the GFS Ensemble show a wide range of possibilities around here Saturday night. Everything is on the table – snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, or nothing at all. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy at times with a few snow or rain showers possible. High 30-37.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy, some clearing takes place late at night. Low 22-29.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 33-40.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 10-17.

Wednesday: A sunny start, then skies cloud up in the afternoon. High 31-38.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and milder with a chance for a few showers. High 44-51.

Friday: Breezy and mild with periods of rain likely. High 50-57.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of……something. Quite frankly, that’s about the only thing we’re certain of at this point.

Sunday: Clearing, breezy, and colder. High 29-36.

Weekly Outlook: January 1-7, 2018

Well, 2018 is certainly starting on a rather chilly note. Believe it or not, before the week is out, it could get worse. We also may be dealing with a storm that could impact part of the region later in the week, but as we went into detail with last week, the models have not been very reliable with forecasts beyond 72 hours, so don’t believe the hype yet.

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Wind chills will be brutally cold if you’re out and about first thing in the morning on New Year’s Day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

 

The week (and year) starts off the way the last one ended – with arctic high pressure keeping temperatures well below normal. Since we’ll still have a little bit of wind, wind chills will range from 10 to 25 below zero Monday morning. A weak disturbance may bring in a few clouds tonight, but then temperatures will start to moderate a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday. Oh, it’ll still be cold, just not ridiculously cold.

After that, we turn our attention to the potential for an ocean storm on Thursday. Many of the models are forecasting a rather powerful storm to develop off the East Coast and head north-northeastward, passing offshore, possibly well offshore. Obviously, the track will be critical in determining what impacts this system may have on the region.

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There’s still a fairly wide range in solutions for the track of our mid-week storm system, as shown by the various members of the GFS Ensemble. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

A track fairly close to the coast could result in heavy snow, possibly even changing to rain along the shoreline. A track well offshore could result in a miss entirely, or possibly just some snow right along the coast. Just as we said last week, we just can’t answer these questions yet. The upper-level energy that will help produce this system is still out over the Pacific Ocean, where observations are sparse. We do know this – because the storm is expected to be large, we will almost certainly be dealing with gusty winds, no matter how close the storm gets. Also, the middle of the week will feature some of the highest astronomical tides of the month, so some coastal flooding will be a possibility, especially along northeast and north-facing shorelines. As things come into sharper focus over the next few days, we’ll have a special blog post if there is a threat of the storm having a significant impact on the region.

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Even among the 21 members of the GFS Ensemble, there is a wide range in snowfall potential from the late-week storm system, ranging from zero in many cases, up to a foot or more in at least 1 or 2 of the solutions. Until these start to converge on a solution, any of them could be right. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Once the system pulls away, strong north to northwest winds behind it will usher another arctic blast into the region. This blast has the potential to be even colder than the current one, especially if we have fresh snow cover after Thursday.

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Subzero lows are possible across much of the region again next weekend. Image provided by Weather.us

 

New Year’s Day: Mostly sunny and cold. High 6-13.

Monday night: Variably cloudy. Low -3 to +4.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 12-19.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 6-13.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 24-31.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow. High 26-33.

Friday: Partly sunny and breezy, and frigid again. High 6-13.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and bitterly cold. High 1-8.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and frigid. High 8-15.

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Longer-range models, including the CFS (pictured), show the month of January having well below normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Weekly Outlook: December 25, 2017 – January 1, 2018

Yup, you read that headline right – 2018. We’ve entered the final week of 2017. Once we get through our Christmas storm, things are fairly simple (and fairly cold) for a few days. The end of the week and the weekend? That’s another story altogether.

The week starts off with a storm bringing some light to moderate snow to areas north and west of Boston, with rain possibly ending as some wet snow from Boston southward. Our thinking really hasn’t changed much since our blog post on Saturday, and by the time most of you read this the storm will be nearly or completely done, so we won’t waste too much time on it. As the storm moves into the Gulf of Maine, it will rapidly intensify, bringing strong winds to the area during the afternoon. While we’ll still have gusty winds for a few more days, they won’t be anywhere near as strong as we’re expecting today.

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ECMWF forecast for low temperatures Thursday morning. Yeah, that’s chilly. Image provided by Weather.us

A weak upper-level disturbance moves through on Tuesday, but it’ll just produce some clouds and maybe a stray flurry or two, but the bulk of any snow shower activity will be confined to Northern New England. After that, high pressure builds in with dry and cold conditions. In fact, low temperatures will likely drop below zero for many of us either Wednesday or Thursday morning.

dumpster-fire
This is how the model forecasts look beyond 3 days at this time. In other words – anyone who tries to give you a forecast with any certainty beyond 3 days has no idea what they are talking about.

 

After Thursday? Well, there really are no definitive answers at this point. The forecast models are all over their place and their performance beyond 3 days lately could accurately be described as “flaming garbage.”  To give you an idea, here’s what the most recent run of some models show for the Friday through Monday period:

Model 1: A light to moderate snowstorm Friday night into Saturday and a moderate to heavy snowstorm Monday night into Tuesday.

Model 1 Ensemble Mean: A light snowstorm Friday night into Saturday, then high pressure builds in.

Model 2: A moderate to heavy snowstorm Saturday night into Sunday.

Model 2 Ensemble Mean: A light to moderate snowstorm on Saturday.

Model 3:  High pressure in control with no appreciable precipitation.

Model 3 Ensemble Mean: A light to moderate snowstorm Friday night into Saturday, then high pressure builds in.

As you can see, we’ve got many conflicting possibilities from just 3 models and their ensembles, so how are we supposed to make any sense from that? So, if you hear someone tell you that we’re getting a snowstorm on a certain day next weekend, don’t believe it. At least not yet. That is a low confidence forecast at best.

Monday: Snow ending by midday north and west of Boston, rain possibly changing to snow before ending around midday from Boston southward. Becoming windy in the afternoon with some clearing possible. High 30-37, except 38-45 across southeastern Massachusetts in the morning.

Monday night: Clearing and breezy. Low 15-22.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a flurry, continued breezy. High 21-28.

Tuesday night: Clear and cold. Low -3 to +7 north and west of Boston. 8-15 above from Boston southward.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, and cold. High 14-21.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and frigid. High 8-15.

Friday through New Year’s Day: Some unsettled weather is possible, but as we mentioned above, trying to pinpoint any details, including which day, just can’t be done yet. Temperatures will remain below normal.

 

Weekly Outlook: December 18-25, 2017

We’ve reached the week before Christmas, and the first day of astronomical winter is this week as well, so 2017 is nearly done. Winter officially starts at 11:28am on Thursday, but next weekend, it’s probably not going to feel like winter around here. That doesn’t mean we’re not going to have a White Christmas however.

The week starts off with a weak storm system impacting the region. It’s not going to have a lot of precipitation with it, but temperatures will be fairly close to freezing, so the morning commute could be impacted. Right now, it looks like some light snow, mainly less than an inch, could impact areas north and west of Boston for the Monday morning commute. Elsewhere, we’re looking at a little bit of rain. Occasional rain or snow showers are possible during the day, with some freezing drizzle possible, especially across the 495 belt and into southern New Hampshire. So, if you have to drive in these areas during the day, make sure you pay attention to the road conditions and drive carefully.

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While precipitation will be mostly rain from Boston southward on Monday, some freezing rain is possible from northeastern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Tuesday, we’ll actually turn a bit milder before a cold front crosses the region. That front may bring in a few showers later on Tuesday, then colder air settles in behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday on gusty northwest winds. By Friday, a warm front will approach the region ahead of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. The warm front may take its time moving through, so temperatures may stay on the cool side, especially north and west of Boston, but the warmer air should finally get in here by Saturday morning, along with some rain. In fact, Saturday afternoon could be quite mild. As the storm passes to our north and west, it drags a cold front across the area, with more seasonable conditions for Christmas Eve.

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If you believe the GFS model, you might not need a coat for that last-minute Christmas shopping next Saturday (but you will need an umbrella). Image provided by Weather.us

So, right now, you’re thinking, it’s going to be warm and raining on Saturday, how could we have a White Christmas? Some of the models show another system impacting the region on Christmas Day. However, the models disagree on many of the details. Since it’s still a week away, pinning down any of these details is next to impossible right now, but there are some models that do show some snow for at least parts of the area. Of course, there are other models that have it warm and wet again. So, there’s still a chance for a White Christmas for some of you. We don’t think it’s a good chance, but it’s certainly not zero, especially north and west of Boston.

Monday: Cloudy with some light snow or freezing drizzle north and west of Route 128, a few rain showers elsewhere. High 30-37, perhaps a little warmer in southeastern Massachusetts.

Monday night: Any lingering precipitation ends in the evening, then skies remain partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with a few showers possible. Becoming windy. High 41-48.

Tuesday night: Clearing, windy. Low 28-35.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 33-40.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold. High 27-34.

Friday: Becoming cloudy and breezy. High 30-37. Temperatures likely rise at night.

Saturday: Windy with rain likely in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. High 49-56.

Christmas Eve: Partly sunny. High 41-48.

Christmas Day:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain. High 35-42.

Weekly Outlook: December 11-17, 2017

You survived the first snow event of the season. Granted, it wasn’t a big storm, but still, you cleaned your car, maybe you even shoveled your driveway. It’s done. It’s over. Feel better? Good, there’s more on the way.

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Sure we had some snow on Saturday, but at least you weren’t in Buffalo on Sunday for the Bills and Colts game. Watching those two teams is bad enough, but in heavy lake-effect snow? No thanks. Image provided by The Buffalo News.

The week starts off with a weak disturbance moving through during the morning, which may produce a few snow showers. So, if you wake up and there’s a dusting on your car, that’s why. High pressure then briefly builds in with clearing and cool conditions for the rest of the day. Clouds quickly come back Monday night as an Alberta Clipper heads towards the region. It will pass north of us on Tuesday. That’s good news for many of you. Although we’ll see some snow develop during the morning, with the storm passing to our north, warmer air moves in, changing the snow quickly over to rain along the coastal plain. Farther inland, especially north and west of I-495, the changeover will take longer, but even there, it should take place during the afternoon, but not before we see some snowfall accumulations. How much accumulation? Right now, it looks like an inch or less in the Merrimack Valley, and 1-3 inches from the Seacoast into the Manchester/Nashua area. North of Manchester, especially up towards Concord and points north and west, we could be looking at 3-6 inches or more.

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Snow may start during the morning commute on Tuesday, but the evening commute should be wet, not white. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once that system passes by, some of the coldest air so far this season flows in for Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty west to northwest winds will send wind chills into the single numbers and teens. Yeah, it’s gonna be chilly. At least the sun will be out, not that it’s going to help much.

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Planning to take that morning run on Thursday? Better layer up, because wind chills will be in the single numbers and teens. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Friday is the interesting day this week. A storm system is going to develop and pass offshore south and east of the region. The question is, how far to the south and east. Right now, the models bring the storm close enough for a period of light snow across southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island. Knowing how these models work and their normal biases and corrections, we have a hunch the storm will end up closer to the coastline, thus spreading snow farther inland. We’re not expecting a blockbuster storm here, but some light to possibly moderate snow is possible on Friday. We’ll obviously keep an eye on this during the week, and if the threat does materialize, we’ll update you. High pressure builds in behind that system with cool and dry conditions next weekend.

Monday: Chance for a morning snow shower, then becoming partly sunny. High 32-39.

Monday night: Clouding back up with some snow possible towards daybreak. Low 20-27.

Tuesday: Snow developing, quickly changing to rain across much of the region, except taking a bit longer north and west of I-495, where some accumulations are possible. High 35-42 north and west of I-495, 43-50 elsewhere.

Tuesday night: Rain ends in the evening, followed by clearing and windy conditions. Low 19-26.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy, and colder. High 23-30.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, still windy. High 23-30.

Friday: Becoming cloudy with a chance of snow, especially from Boston southward. High 27-34.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy.  High 30-37.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 38-45.

Weekly Outlook: December 4-10, 2017

Snow. There, we said it. We know that a lot of you hate that word. However, this is New England, it’s inevitable in the winter. The last time that most of us saw any snow around here was on April Fool’s Day. You’ve had 8+ months without it. Guess what? We’ve got some #FlakeNews for you. There’s snow in the forecast this week.

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No, it’s not going to be this bad……this time. However, winter is just getting started. You’ve been warned.

 

The week will actually start off with high pressure in control. That means dry and seasonably cool conditions for Monday. By Tuesday, the high will slide off to the east and a strong storm system will move across the Great Lakes. Ahead of it, we’ll have gusty southwest winds ushering some mild air into the region. Tuesday will likely see highs in the 50s across much of the area. With the mild air comes some rain though, mainly late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Some of the rain Tuesday night could be locally heavy. A cold front moves through Wednesday morning, with the rain ending by midday. Whatever the temperature is when you wake up on Wednesday is likely the warmest it will be all day. Behind the front, temperatures will drop during the afternoon. Thursday is the transition day. High pressure tries to build in, but a weak upper-level disturbance will pass to the north. For the most part, the day will be dry, with temperatures close to where they should be in early December.

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GFS Temperature forecast for 1am Wednesday. It’s going to be unseasonably mild Tuesday night, with temperatures likely staying in the 50s all night long, despite the rain. Image provided by Weather.us

This brings us to Friday and the weekend. We’re going to have back-to-back storms to contend with, one Friday into early Saturday, and one Saturday night into Sunday. Right now, neither storm looks like it will be a big deal, but there are plenty of questions that need to be answered as well. First and foremost – what track will these storms take? There’s lots of disagreement between the models at this point. Some models keep the Friday system too far offshore to have much of an impact on us. Some bring it closer and give us a decent amount of precipitation Friday night. The same things can be said about the potential Sunday system as well. These are things that we can’t answer yet, as there are too many things that have to happen first before we have a better idea. One thing we can tell you is that with either system, we are likely looking at precipitation falling in the form of snow across the interior. Closer to the coast, some snow is possible, but more likely, the bulk of the precipitation would fall as rain. With water temperatures still in the 40s, any wind off the water will allow temperatures to moderate quickly, making rain more likely. As for how much snow might fall – again, that is highly dependent on the storm track. A track well offshore with either storm could mean virtually no precipitation at all, thus no snowfall. A track closer to the coast could mean that you need to find your shovels and make sure the snowblower is gassed up and the plow is back on the pickup. We don’t expect significant snowfall around here no matter what the track is, but we’ll keep you informed later in the week, when we have a better idea as to what might happen. Behind that, even colder air will settle into the region next week. Yup, winter is coming alright.

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Temperature will be well below normal across the eastern half of the nation for much of next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 41-48.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 31-38.

Tuesday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with showers developing in the afternoon. High 48-55.

Tuesday night: Windy and mild with periods of rain. Temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.

Wednesday: Showers ending in the morning, some clearing possible in the afternoon. High 52-59 at daybreak, dropping into the 40s in the afternoon.

Thursday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. High 38-45.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, chance for snow developing late in the day, changing to rain across Cape Cod and along the immediate coast. High 34-41.

Saturday: Any rain or snow ends early, then becoming partly sunny. High 33-40.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for rain or snow, especially along the coast. High 33-40.

Weekly Outlook: November 27 – December 3, 2017

Believe it or not, December starts later this week. Yup, 2017 is nearly over already. As we get to the end of November, another quite week lies ahead.

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Some snow showers will move across Northern new England today, mainly this morning. We could see a few stray flakes around here, but if there are any, it’ll be mainly before most of you read this. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The week starts off with high pressure in control. Sure, Monday will be windy and a little cool, but we’ll have sunshine, and besides, it’s late November, it’s supposed to be cool outside! Tuesday will be feature a little more sunshine, and a little less wind, with high pressure still in control. A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday, with some clouds, and maybe a shower in the morning. Sunshine will return in the afternoon, and it will actually turn milder, with highs getting into the 50s. we’ll cool off again for Thursday, but the dry and cool weather will be short-lived. Another cold front will approach on Friday, bringing with it a better chance for some rain. High pressure returns for the weekend, with improving conditions on Saturday, followed by partial sunshine and cool temperatures on Sunday.

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Wednesday is looking like it will be a mild day. Image provided by Weather.us

Monday: Some morning clouds, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 40-47.

Monday night: Clear skies with diminishing winds. Low 19-26.

Tuesday: Sunshine and just a few clouds. High 39-46.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy and breezy. Low 36-43 in the evening, then temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a stray shower, mainly early. High 50-57.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine to start, clouds start to filter back in during the afternoon. High 41-48.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely. High 47-54.

Saturday: Perhaps a few lingering showers along the coast early, otherwise becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 43-50.

Sunday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. High 41-48.

Finally, here at Storm HQ, we focus on short-range forecasts, 7 days or less. However, some of you are wondering what the winter has in store for us. Our colleagues over at Woods Hill Weather issued their Winter Outlook Sunday afternoon. If you’re curious about their thought on the winter, we would advise you to give it a read. For short-range forecasts, we usually end up with very similar thinking, so we trust what they have to say, and you should too.

Weekly Outlook: November 20-26, 2017

Thanksgiving week has arrived, which means that we’re already getting to the tail end of 2017. Before you know it, we’ll be talking about snowstorms. No, we’re not talking about them yet, but soon, we will be. This is New England after all.

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It’s going to be chilly for the Black Friday early morning sales. Make sure you’re wearing a winter coat and gloves if you’re going to fight the crowds. (Or you could just sleep in and wait for Cyber Monday.) Image provided by Weather.us

For the most part, we’re looking at a fairly benign pattern this week. We start off with high pressure in control for Monday and Tuesday, with sunshine and cool temperatures. On Wednesday, a cold front will approach from the west while a coastal storm passes offshore. The result will be some rain showers, especially along the coastline. High pressure builds back in on Thanksgiving with sunshine returning, making for some great weather for high school football and traveling to see family. High pressure remains in control on Friday, keeping the dry and cool weather in place, so dress properly if you’re heading out for the “Doorbuster” sales on Black Friday. By Saturday, a strong low pressure system will pass well to our north and west, across southeastern Canada. This will result in a bit of warmup, but also some rain showers. The system drags a strong cold front across the region Saturday night, with breezy and colder conditions expected on Sunday. A few rain or snow showers are possible with that frontal passage on Sunday.

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The GFS model shows that the next 7 days will be fairly quiet, with only a little precipitation on Wednesday and again late Saturday, Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits..

Monday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, slight chance for a morning snow flurry, breezy. High 36-43.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some high clouds at times, still breezy. High 50-57.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with winds diminishing overnight. Low 43-50 in the evening, then temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, especially along the coast. High 48-55 early, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Thanksgiving: Partly to mostly sunny. High 37-44.

Friday: Sunshine dominates again. High 41-48.

Saturday: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy with some showers possible. High 47-54.

Sunday: Chance for a rain or snow shower early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 38-45.

Weekly Outlook: November 13-19, 2017

Well, now that it is actually feeling like November outside, we’ve got a more sobering thought for you. Christmas is six weeks from today. Six weeks. You know what that means, right? Yup, we’ll be talking about that dreaded “s-word” soon. It doesn’t look like we’ll worry about it for most of this week, but rest assured, it’s coming.

As for this week, the week will start off with, to quote a friend of the blog, “not exactly a chamber of commerce day.” A weak system passes offshore today, close enough to spread some showers in, mainly from Boston southward, during the afternoon. We suppose there could be a few wet flakes mixed in, but generally, just some light rain is expected. High pressure builds in after that with dry and cool conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will start to moderate on Thursday ahead of a storm system. However, with the milder conditions will come some more rainfall. The rain ends during the afternoon as a cold front moves through. This sets up another dry and but cold day on Friday.

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No more highs in the 70s, but temperatures on Thursday should be in the 50s, which is near to a little above normal for mid-November. Image provided by Weather.US

Next weekend is where things get interesting. Another storm system will move into the Great Lakes and eventually into southeastern Canada. This will give us some precipitation Saturday into early Sunday. The precipitation may not be entirely plain rain. Remember, we’re going to have a very cold airmass in place on Friday. Warmer air will certainly move in aloft, but as it typically the case in the fall/winter, it may struggle to move in at the surface, especially inland. So, what does that mean? For the coastal plain, we’re looking at just rain. For places farther inland, especially north and west of 495, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the precipitation start as some wet snow, before a changeover to rain, possibly with a period of sleet or freezing rain in between. This is all assuming that the precipitation moves in during the morning. If it holds off until afternoon, then the chance for wintry precipitation diminishes considerably. All in all, this doesn’t look like a big deal, but since it could be the first potential wintry event of the season, we certainly need to keep our eyes on it. The other big question is the temperatures. How warm will we get on Saturday? Across inland areas, depending on which model you believe, we could stay in the upper 30s to middle 40s, or we could soar well into the 50s. Right now, based on what we’ve seen in the past, we’re going to lean towards the cooler scenario inland, but obviously that could change. No matter what happens, a cold front pushes through early Sunday, with clearing and colder conditions expected once again.

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At least one model shows the potential for a wintry mix across inland areas Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy with scattered showers developing, mainly along the coast and south of Boston. High 38-45, except 46-53 across southeastern Mass and Cape Cod.

Monday night: Showers taper off, but some drizzle and/or a few flurries may persist. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 39-46.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Sunshine, dimmed by some high clouds during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Thursday: Showers likely in the morning, clearing  and becoming breezy late in the day. High 49-56.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Clouds start to filter in during the afternoon. High 40-47.

Saturday: Rain likely, possibly starting as a wintry mix well inland. Becoming breezy, especially across Cape Cod.  High 41-48 north and west of I-495, 49-56 south and east.

Sunday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 39-46.

Of course, next week is Thanksgiving, and everyone wants to know what the weather will be live for the drive to see family. At least one model (the GFS) has a storm come through on Wednesday, with some snow, especially north and west of Boston. Other models have drier conditions. We’ll go into that forecast in more detail in next week’s outlook.

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If you believe the GFS model, we could be in for some snow the day before Thanksgiving. Wouldn’t that make for a lovely travel day? Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Weekly Outlook: November 6-12, 2017

You’ve got one more day to enjoy the unseasonably warm weather, then changes are certainly on the way. By the end of the week, some bigger changes are coming.

The week starts off on a mild note, as most of the ones this fall have, but we’ll have plenty of clouds in place as a cold front comes marching in from the west. This front produced severe weather across much of the Midwest yesterday, and while we’re not expecting severe weather here, we are expecting some locally heavy showers from late morning into the evening, and a rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out. The showers end in the evening as a strong cold front crosses the region. That front will stall out south of New England for mid-week, and a couple of waves of low pressure will ride along it. They should be too far to the south to spread much, if any precipitation into the region, but they should keep the clouds in place. At the same time, high pressure will build into Northern New England, with more seasonable temperatures expected. This will keep us dry and cool into the middle portion of the week.

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Some places could see half an inch of rain in a short time frame today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Thursday, we start to prepare for the next set of changes. A strong cold front will cross the region Thursday night, producing a few showers across the region. There’s even a chance that some of those showers could have some snowflakes mixed in. (Remember – it is early November) Behind that front, colder air will come pouring into the region on Friday on gusty northwest winds. A few more snow showers are possible as well. Winds start to die down on Saturday, but despite the sunshine, temperatures will be well below normal. In fact much of the region may not even reach 40 degrees for a high. The next system heads towards the area on Sunday, with clouds streaming in followed by showers late in the day. Temperatures will start to moderate, so we’ll be looking at mainly rain showers.

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Saturday is looking like it might be quite the chilly day. Image provided by weather.us

Monday: Cloudy and mild with showers developing, possibly even a thunderstorm. High 62-69.

Monday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine. High 46-53.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 45-52.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a rain or snow shower at night. High 48-55.

Friday: Partly sunny and windy. High 41-48 early, temperatures may drop in the afternoon.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Clouds start to stream back in late in the day and at night. High 37-44.

Sunday: Becoming clouds with showers developing late in the day. High 42-49.