Summer in October continued on Sunday, but a cold front will bring cooler conditions in today. So, are we finally into fall weather for good? To borrow a phrase from college football analyst Lee Corso – “Not so fast my friend.”
We’ll start the week off with high pressure building in, bringing cooler conditions to the region. In fact, temperatures may be below normal today. Some locations could even see some frost Tuesday morning. Don’t be alarmed, it is October, and this does frequently occur at this time of year. Tuesday looks to be on the cool side as well. After that? The warmth returns. High pressure slides offshore, and we warm right back up with dry conditions for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Very little rainfall is expected during the next week across the most of the region. Image provided by Weather.us
It does look like the warm weather party will come to a crashing halt early next week, with a pattern change becoming more and more likely. A flip to below normal temperatures and more precipitation looks to be in the offing. In fact, some places could even see their first flakes of the season late this month. (Yeah, we just said that. Deal with it.) We’ll get into more detail on this in next week’s outlook. For now, enjoy the warm weather.
Some of the longer-range Ensemble models show the potential for a little flaky white stuff away from the coastline before Halloween. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Some lingering showers across Cape Cod and SE Mass early in the day, otherwise skies will gradually clear from northwest to southeast. High 54-61.
Monday night: Becoming mostly clear and chilly with some patchy frost. Low 35-42, but some of the normally colder locations could drop close to 30.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 51-58.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 42-49.
Wednesday: Sun, sun, and more sun. High 64-71.
Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 68-75.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 62-69.
Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 69-76.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 72-79.
What’s left of former Hurricane Ophelia will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of Ireland, northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England over the next few days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Finally, we will discuss former Hurricane Ophelia. As of early Monday morning, Ophelia has transitioned into a post-tropical storm. In other words, it’s just another low pressure system now, albeit a strong one. It’s likely going to cross Ireland and the northern UK over the next day or two. Strong winds and heavy rain are expected. While some of the media are playing the hype game, the truth is, they get storms like this all the time in the fall, winter, and spring, many of which are even stronger. The difference this time is that the storm has tropical origins, so it will likely bring in more rain than your typical North Atlantic storm moving into the UK. It’s not rare, and it’s not unusual. Plenty of former tropical cyclones have become post-tropical and crossed the Atlantic, impacting the UK in the past.
Who likes rain, especially heavy rain? Alright, we know that most of you don’t, but we do need some rain around here, as drought conditions are slowly starting to emerge again. However, that’s not the reason why a lot of you are hoping for rain today. Heavy rain means a rainout for the Red Sox, and thus the chance that Chris Sale pitches Game 4 instead of Rick Porcello.
Well, it looks like you’ll get your wish, but be careful what you wish for. The remains of Hurricane Nate will pass north and west of the region today, bringing us some rain and maybe a few thunderstorms, The heaviest rain will stay to our north and west, but we’ll still get a good amount of rain today, especially during the morning and again during the late afternoon and evening. There will likely be a lull around midday, but probably not enough for the Red Sox to squeeze the game in. Sure, they’ll probably open the gates and let everyone in to buy hot dogs, beer, and souvenirs for a few hours, then postpone the game until Tuesday. (Anything to make a buck!)
Conditions right now are just abnormally dry, but we need some rain to prevent a drought from returning. Image provided by NOAA.
Tuesday will be about as perfect as an October day can be in New England. High pressure brings plenty of sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will move through late in the day, but it’ll be starved for moisture, so other than a few clouds and a wind shift, you probably won’t notice when the front moves through. You will notice it the next day when temperatures are 15-20 degrees colder and more clouds move in. Another system will slowly make its way eastward from the Midwest, bringing us some showers Wednesday night and early Thursday, but the bulk of the rainfall will likely stay to our south and west as high pressure tries to build in from the north. Yet another weak system comes through on Friday with a few more showers possible.
That brings us to the weekend. After a week with several days featuring clouds and/or rain, what would you expect to happen? Of course, we’re going to have high pressure return with sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures once again. Don’t expect every weekend to be like this through the fall, but certainly enjoy them while they’re here. Before you know it, it’ll be cold and we’ll be talking about the dreaded s-word. For the record, longer-range models right now show warm weather again the following weekend.
Warm weather comes back this weekend? The models are showing that it’s a possibility. Image provided by Weather.US
Monday: Breezy and humid with periods of rain and showers, maybe a thunderstorm or two as well. High 69-76.
Monday night: Showers taper off in the evening, followed by partial clearing overnight. Low 61-68.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny and warm. High 75-82.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 53-60.
Wednesday: Some early sun, then clouds thicken up. Showers develop at night. Much cooler, high 61-68.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or two early in the day. High 58-65.
Friday: More clouds than sun with a chance for a few showers. High 62-69.
Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77.
Sunday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, breezy, and warm. High 71-78.
One final note to show you how abnormal the warmth and humidity are. At the time this blog post was written (4am Monday), the temperature and dewpoint at the Storm HQ World Headquarters in the City of Champions (that’s Brockton, MA for those who don’t know) were both 70 degrees. The normal low temperature for today is 42 degrees. The normal high temperature is only 64!
October has arrived, and temperatures should be starting to get cooler. September certainly ended on a cool note and the first day of October was on the cool side as well. However, we’re going to warm back up this week, so the cool shot was short-lived.
On average, high temperatures for early October should be in the middle to upper 60s around here. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure will be in control of the region’s weather for the next few days. Although the week will start off cool, a warming trend is expected as high pressure moves offshore. A cold front will approach the region on Thursday. The front will take its time moving through the region, but it also won’t have a lot of moisture to work with. As a result, Thursday will be another warm day, but only a chance for a few showers or maybe even a thunderstorm. The question is: how many people will notice the weather on Thursday with Red Sox/Astros Game 1 at 4pm, the Bruins season opener at the Garden against Nashville at 7pm, and the Patriots in Tampa at 8:25pm? Friday will likely be another mild day before the front finally pushes through, with cooler conditions settling in behind it for Friday night.
Let’s go Sox! Image provided by the Boston Red Sox.
Once that front moves through, it is going to stall out south of New England. How far south it stalls will play a big role in determining Saturday’s weather, as a couple of waves of low pressure will likely ride along that front. If it stalls close to the south coast, Saturday could be cool and rather wet. If it stalls out farther to the south, Saturday may see some sunshine develop. It looks like the front moves back northward as a warm front on Sunday, with some rainfall likely. How quickly it comes back will determine our temperatures (and to a lesser extent our weather) on Sunday. If it takes its time coming through, temperatures could stay in the 50s and lower 60s all day with rain likely. If it comes through quickly, we could jump into the 70s with just some showers or even a thunderstorm. Once it does come through, it looks like the first part of next week will be warm but probably also wet. It also looks like a cooler pattern may try to develop towards the latter half of next week as well. Whether this is temporary or the true start of fall remains to be seen.
Temperatures on Wednesday could be 10-15 degrees above normal. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 64-71.
Monday night: Clear skies. Low 44-51, except some of the normally cooler locations could drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 64-71.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 47-54.
Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, and warm. High 73-80.
Thursday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers. High 75-82.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.
Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy, chance for a few showers. High 62-69.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with more showers possible. High 65-72.
Heavy snow is likely across portions of the West today and tomorrow, especially at the higher elevations. Image provided by WeatherBell.
While our weather is quiet, a much different story is expected from the Plains into the Rockies. A storm system will produce strong to severe thunderstorms across the Plains states today, with some heavy rain spreading into the Upper Midwest. Behind the system, snow is expected across much of the Intermountain West. Across the higher elevations, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet or more are possible.
Yup, you read that headline right. October is just about here. Baseball hits the postseason, football is in full swing, hockey is starting up, the leaves are starting to change colors, and pumpkin everything is in the stores. Within the next few days you’ll probably start to see Christmas stuff showing up as well if you haven’t already.
As September ends and October begins, what type of weather do you normally think of? Record heat, right? You thought we were talking about something different, didn’t you? That’ll come soon enough. For now, enjoy the summer-like temperatures, they’ll be here for the next several days, thanks to a large area of high pressure.
Record high temperatures are possible for many locations across the Northeast today. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Not only is that high pressure area going to keep us dry and warm, it’s going to block Hurricane Maria from coming up the coast (more on Maria in a bit). Alas, all good things must come to an end, and in this case, a cold front is responsible. It will produce a few showers, maybe even a thunderstorm, for late Wednesday and more likely Thursday. One thing we will need to keep an eye on, is if the cold front interacts with Maria when it is well offshore. If it does interact with Maria, it could result in a period of heavy rain. Right now, if this were to occur, it would most likely be either offshore or over Atlantic Canada, but there is a chance it could happen closer to us, especially Cape Cod. High pressure then builds in behind the front for Friday and the weekend with much cooler conditions. It will likely be drier as well, but that’s not set in stone yet. Some of the models show a weak disturbance moving through on Saturday that could produce some showers, while other models have that disturbance slide off to our south. We’re leaning towards the drier solution for now, but confidence is a little less than normal.
Model forecasts for the track of Hurricane Maria. Another landfall is not expected. Image provided by the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
As for the tropics, we’ve got two hurricanes in the Atlantic right now, Lee and Maria. After blasting the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico earlier in the week as a Category 4-5 Hurricane, Maria has weakened considerably, and is now a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph. As of early Monday morning Maria was centered about 375 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving toward the north at 8 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Surf City, North Carolina northward to the Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Maria should continue northward for the next couple of days while slowly weakening, passing east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but close enough for some gusty winds and rainfall to impact the region. By mid-week, Maria will encounter strong westerly winds and upper levels, which will make the storm take a big right turn, and head out to sea.
Model forecasts for the track of Hurricane Lee. This will be another “fish storm”. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Lee also has maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, and is centered about 900 miles east of Bermuda, drifting toward the east-southeast at 3 mph. Lee may strengthen a bit over the next day or two while turning more towards the west. Eventually, a turn more towards the north and northeast is expected, keeping the storm over open waters for its entire lifespan.
Monday: Some patchy fog early, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 82-89, cooler right along the coast.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 60-67.
Tuesday: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds. High 80-87.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 78-85.
Thursday: Chance for showers early, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 73-80.
Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 63-70.
Saturday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a few showers. High 61-68.
Ready for another quiet week weather-wise? You must be in San Diego then, because this week certainly won’t be quiet around here.
The week starts off with high pressure over Atlantic Canada. The southeast to south flow around this high pressure area will keep plenty of moisture in place, resulting in some dense fog to start the day in parts of the region. The fog will burn off, but clouds will dominate the day with only a few sunny breaks as some of the moisture from Jose streams northward into the region. That brings us to Jose, and what it will do.
Model forecasts for the track of Hurricane Jose. Could it make another loop, this time south of New England? Time will tell. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the East Coast from Fenwick Island, Delaware, northward to Plymouth, Massachusetts. Although Jose remains a hurricane now, it will weaken to a tropical storm as it heads northward in between Bermuda and the East Coast. Although there are still a few forecast models that bring the center of the storm very close to, if not right across, the south coast of New England, the more likely scenario is for the storm to make a right turn, and pass south and east of the area. It will still be close enough to spread in some locally heavy rain, with gusty winds along the coast as well. As we talked about in our blog post on Saturday, this is basically a “nor’easter with a name.” The rain will move into the region on Tuesday, with the heaviest rain and strongest winds likely Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. There will still be some locally heavier showers farther inland, and winds may occasionally be gusty, with the biggest impact from the storm will basically be south and east of I-95. Along the coast, we may also have to deal with some coastal flooding, as the persistent east to northeast winds will create some big waves, plus tides are running high this week thanks to a New Moon on Wednesday. Despite all of this, this storm is not going to be anything remotely resembling Harvey or Irma. We have said this a few times already, but we’ll say it again, just because it has a name, does not make it that big of a deal. We get storms that hit us harder nearly every fall and winter.
GFS model forecast for rainfall through Friday evening. Most areas north and west of Boston would receive an inch or less, with the heaviest amounts confined to Cape Cod if this forecast verifies. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday and Friday are where things start to get to tricky around here. The trend in the models for the past few runs has been for the storm to slow down and slowly turn back toward the south once it gets past us. Given that the storm will be even weaker by then as it sits over the colder waters off of the coast, winds won’t be much of an issue, except across the Cape and Islands. However, if the storm does slow down or even stall, it will keep the clouds locked in for Thursday and Friday, as well as the threat for more rain, mainly across the Cape and southeastern Massachusetts. Of course, if the storm slows down or makes the turn a little farther away than currently expected, then we may see some improving conditions. No matter what happens Thursday and Friday, by next weekend, the storm pulls far enough away to allow high pressure to build back in with sunshine returning to the entire region.
Next Sunday could be quite a warm late-September afternoon if you believe the GFS. We’re not forecasting temperatures quite this warm, but it is certainly possible. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Some patchy dense fog early, otherwise plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks. A shower or two can’t be ruled out. High 69-76.
Monday night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with rain developing along the South Coast after midnight, gradually spreading northward. Low 59-66.
Tuesday: Windy along the coast, breezy elsewhere with periods of rain and showers, possibly heavy at times along the South Coast and across the Cape. High 64-71.
Tuesday night: Windy, especially along the coast, with periods of rain, heavy at times, especially south of Boston. Low 60-67.
Wednesday: Windy along the coast, breezy elsewhere with periods of rain and showers, heavy at times along the South Coast and across the Cape. High 65-72.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, still breezy across the Cape. Chance for more rain and showers, mainly across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. High 63-70 along the coast and south of Boston, 70-77 elsewhere.
Friday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, especially north and west of Boston. Some additional showers are still possible across Cape Cod. High 61-68 along the coast and south of Boston, 68-75 elsewhere.
Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, though clouds may be slow to move out across Cape Cod. High 74-81, cooler along the coast and across Cape Cod.
Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 78-85.
Hurricane Maria continues to strengthen while approaching the Leeward Islands. Loop provided by NOAA.
Finally, we’ll talk about Hurricane Maria. Maria will move across the Leeward Islands today, a little south of where Irma went across. As of early Monday morning, Maria had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, and more strengthening is expected. Maria could become a Category 3 hurricane before crossing the islands. Once it crosses the Leeward Islands, it will turn a bit more toward the northwest. On this track, it will likely pass very close to St. Croix, and near or across Puerto Rico., possibly as a Category 3 or 4 Hurricane While St. Croix fared better than most of the other Virgin Islands during Irma, this is a region that does not need another major storm moving through. Once it gets past Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, there is a chance it could threaten the East Coast. Any potential impacts would be at least a week away at this point, so it’s not worth worrying about for now. However, we figured it was at least worth mentioning that after Jose passes by, not to let your guard down. We’ll keep tabs on Maria’s progress, and if the threat does materialize, we’ll let you know.
Track forecasts for Maria from the various members of the GFS Ensemble. Image provided by WeatherBell.
While Irma continues to plow further into Florida and Jose spends some quality time over the open Atlantic, we’ve got a nice quiet week on our hands, thanks to a large area of high pressure. Not only will it be quiet, it’ll be warm too.
Radar loop showing Irma’s progress northward across Florida after landfall. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.
First, we’ll talk about the tropics. Irma continues to move northward across central Florida while weakening early this morning. Irma will weaken to a tropical storm during the day on Monday while turning more towards the northwest. The center of Irma should move across southern Georgia, and then up towards the Tennessee Valley, where it will likely dissipate towards the middle of the week. Winds will still be a major problem across Florida today, especially central and northern Florida, but the bigger threat will shift to rainfall as we head through the day and into mid-week. Additional rainfall totals of 6-12 inches or more are expected across northern Florida and southern Georgia, with 2-6 inches possible from the Tennessee Valley into parts of the Carolinas. This will likely lead to flooding in some areas. While some of this moisture will stream up here in the form of clouds, only a few showers are possible, as high pressure keeps the rain bottled up to our south.
Heavy rain will likely lead to flooding across the Southeast over the next few days thanks to Irma. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We also are keeping an eye on Hurricane Jose. Early this morning, Jose was a few hundred miles east of the southern Bahamas with top winds near 100 mph. Jose will likely weaken a bit, and stall out or move very erratically for the next few days. As we get towards midweek, Jose may start to strengthen again while turning back towards the west, before eventually turning northward. While it is possible that Jose could be a threat to the East Coast, sometime next weekend or early in the following week, that threat is fairly low at this point. Yes, a couple of the computer models have shown a rather strong Hurricane Jose heading right up the East Coast around 10-12 days from now, but those models have problems picking out where things will be 3 days from now, never mind 10 days from now. In fact, 10 days ago, some of those exact same models showed Irma making landfall in New England. They were only off by over 1000 miles. In other words, despite seeing people post scary looking maps on Facebook and Twitter and telling you to start preparing now because New England could be next, we wouldn’t worry too much about it. If there is going to be a threat, we’ll let you know well in advance.
Despite what you may have seen on the Internet, Hurricane Jose is not a threat to any land areas over the next 5-7 days, except possibly the Bahamas. Beyond that, there is a low threat to the East Coast, but a track out to sea is still more likely. Image provided by the University at Albany.
As for our actual forecast, well, that’s pretty easy. High pressure keeps us warm and dry through at least Thursday. A weak front may try to drop down into the region with some cooler conditions and possibly a few showers late in the week. Next weekend looks cooler, but likely still dry, as high pressure tries to build back into the region.
Tuesday is looking like the pick of the week with sunshine and temperatures in the 80s. Normal highs for mid-September are in the middle 70s. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 75-82.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 52-59.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 80-87.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.
Wednesday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 78-85.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85.
Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with some showers possible. High 73-80, possibly cooler right along the coast, especially in the afternoon.
Saturday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 69-76.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80.
Temperatures will top 90 in parts of Montana today. By the end of the week, it could be snowing there. Yup, it’s getting to be that time of year. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Irma is already a powerful storm, and will likely get even stronger. Loop provided by NOAA.
Before we get to the week ahead, we’ll address Irma, since we’ve been getting questions about it already. As of 11pm Sunday, Irma was centered a little more than 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. It is moving towards the west-southwest at 14 mph. Hurricane Watches have been posted for the islands in the northeastern Caribbean. Irma will turn more towards the west and west-northwest over the next few days, with some fluctuations in intensity. It will pass very close to the islands of the northeastern Caribbean on Tuesday, then likely pass just north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, before setting its sights on the southeastern Bahamas later this week. Beyond that? Well, that’s a question that really can’t be answered yet. The computer models, which can be notoriously bad more than a couple of days out, are all over the place. Just based on these, landfall, could occur anywhere between New Orleans and Nova Scotia, or not at all. It will be a few more days at least before we start to have any clarity on whether the storm will impact the United States or not. If it were, it wouldn’t happen until early next week anyway. We’ll likely have a special post about Irma later this week, where we take a deeper dive into the storm. For now, just keep an eye on it, especially if you live near the coast.
Model forecasts for the track of Hurricane Irma over the next 5-7 days. As you can see, it’s likely still at least a week away from any potential impacts to the US. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
As for what will happen up here, we’ve got a spectacular Labor Day coming up. As we read the traditional end of summer, it will certainly feel likely summer today with sunshine and warm temperatures. Tuesday will likely end up as another warm day, but the sunshine will disappear early behind increasing clouds. The more sunshine that we get, the warmer it will be. A cold front will slowly approaches the region, and may end stall out across the area. As a result, we’re looking at an extended period of wet weather starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night, going right into Thursday or perhaps even much of Friday. It’s not going to be raining the entire time, in fact, there may be extended stretches of time where it’s not raining, but for the most part, it will be cloudy, cooler, and damp, with occasional rain and thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy, which is actually good news, since parts of the region are starting to slip back towards drought conditions. Once this front finally moves out on Friday, high pressure builds in next weekend with sunshine and milder conditions.
Latest updated on drought conditions across the Northeast. Image provided by the US Drought Monitor.
Labor Day: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 76-83.
Monday night: Mostly clear with some high clouds moving in late at night. Low 61-68.
Tuesday: Some early sunshine, then clouds thicken up. Showers and thunderstorms may develop late in the day, mainly north and west of Boston. Breezy. High 80-87.
Tuesday night: Showers gradually spread across the region. Low 62-69.
Wednesday: Cloudy with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms. High 70-77.
Thursday: Cloudy with more showers and drizzle expected. High 67-74.
Friday: More clouds than sun, some lingering showers, especially south of Boston. High 67-74.
Neil Peart wrote that line (and the rest of the song) 30 years ago, but it’s appropriate right now, as we’re coming up on Labor Day weekend, the “traditional” end of summer. Of course, meteorological summer ends on Thursday, so, we really are getting closer to fall. Just for completeness, the autumnal equinox occurs at 4:02pm on September 22. Of course, we’ve had plenty of hot weather in September before, so don’t start putting away the shorts just yet.
Rainfall totals across southeastern Texas through Sunday afternoon. Image provided by the National Weather Service Office in Houston.
Before we get to the forecast around here, we’d like to discuss Harvey a little. In our post a few days ago, we mentioned the possibility that some locations could see 30-40 inches of rain over the span of a week as Harvey stalled across the region. Well, it looks like we underestimated that. Much of the area, especially right around Houston, has already seen 15-30 inches of rain, leading to catastrophic flooding across the region. Some of the pictures of the flooding have been just incredible. Unfortunately, with Harvey expected to move very little over the next few days, another 15-30 inches may fall across the region.
Rainfall forecast for the next 7 days across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Image provided by WeatherBell.
As for around here, the week will start off dry and cool, which is how the last week ended. High pressure remains in control, which will give us some sunshine for one more day. High clouds will start to stream in on Tuesday ahead of a tropical system off the East Coast (more on that in a minute). That system will pass south and east of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as it becomes a post-tropical system. It will likely pass close enough to spread some gusty winds and maybe some showers into Cape Cod and possible southeastern Massachusetts. A cold front then swings through the region on Thursday, bringing in more showers and maybe some thunderstorms. High pressure then returns will dry and cool conditions for Friday and Saturday. Clouds start to move back in on Sunday, and unfortunately, Labor Day isn’t looking that great right now, as a storm system moving in from the Great Lakes may bring us more showers. However, it’s a week away and things can change, so don’t go cancelling any plans just yet.
We’ll start the week off with a cool Monday morning. These readings are 5-10 degrees below normal. Image provided by WeatherBell.
As we mentioned a moment ago, we may have a tropical system to deal with off the East Coast. As early early Monday morning, Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 was centered about 165 miles south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina. The system doesn’t have a well-defined circulation yet, which is why it’s only a “potential” tropical cyclone. If it does get its act together, it will be named Irma. The current forecast is for that to happen while the storm starts moving northeastward. Since it will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the Carolinas, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the South Santee River in South Carolina northward to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Once it passes the Outer Banks of North Carolina, it will likely accelerate east-northeastward out into the open Atlantic while slowly strengthening, but also losing its tropical characteristics.
Computer model forecasts for the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone 10. Image provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 70-77.
Monday night: Some high clouds may start to spread across the region. Low 52-59.
Tuesday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds to start, but clouds start to thicken up during the afternoon. High 66-73.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, becoming breezy across Cape Cod. Some showers are possible, mainly across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Low 53-60.
Wednesday: Some showers possible in the morning across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 66-73.
Thursday: A sunny start, then clouding back up with showers and maybe some thunderstorms late in the day. High 77-84.
Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 65-72.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 69-76.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 76-83.
Labor Day: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of showers. High 78-85.
Longer range: Aside from a system bringing in some showers towards midweek, much of next week looks dry and cool.
As we start a new week all eyes will literally be looking at the sky. As you may have heard, there’s an eclipse today. The weather will cooperate, as high pressure provides us with sunshine, so viewing it shouldn’t be a problem. You’ve probably also heard plenty of people warning you not to look directly at the sun during the eclipse. Since you’ve heard it enough already, we won’t say it. Besides, if you want to look at the sun, we won’t stop you. Eyesight is overrated anyways. Plenty of people live without it. If that’s what you want, who are we to stop you? You’ll still be alive and free to go golfing in the middle of the thunderstorms we’re expecting on Tuesday. Don’t worry, they’ll likely be coming at night, so even if you were golfing, you wouldn’t be able to find the ball if you had eyesight.
Cloud cover forecast from the HRRR model for 2pm Monday. Just a few clouds around, which shouldn’t impact eclipse viewing much. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Now that we’ve given you the teaser and the sarcasm, let’s get to the details. We start the week off with high pressure, giving us a fantastic Monday. A cold front approaches on Tuesday, producing showers and thunderstorms, mainly at night. A few of these storms could be quite strong, but with the activity mostly expected at night, that should limit the potential for severe weather. Of course, that doesn’t mean you should let your guard down. These storms still could produce heavy downpours, but severe weather is still possible at night. In fact, Tuesday marks the one year anniversary of the tornado that impacted Concord, MA at 3:20 in the morning.
A rare overnight tornado impacted Concord, MA one year ago tomorrow. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Taunton, MA.
The showers and thunderstorms will taper off and end early Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region, then things get quiet again. We’ll dry out Wednesday afternoon but it will remain warm. We’ll cool off a little more on Thursday as an upper-level trough of low pressure settles into the Northeast while high pressure does at the surface, which will result in some cool days for Friday and the weekend.
Monday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, dimmed for a while by a passing moon in the afternoon. High 82-89.
Monday night: High clouds overspread the region. Low 64-71.
Tuesday: Clouds thicken up, with some showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 85-92.
Tuesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which could contain heavy downpours and gusty winds. Low 68-75.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms end in the morning, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 78-85.
Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 74-81.
Friday: A sunny start, then clouds start to pop up with a slight chance for a spot shower in the afternoon. High 71-78.
Saturday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. High 70-77.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77.
Finally, we get to a topic that doesn’t impact this week’s forecast, but could have an impact early next week. For several days now, the Canadian model has been extremely insistent on a tropical disturbance developing near the Bahamas and eventually moving northward, up the East Coast early next week. There have been a few reasons to ignore this for the past few days:
This was the only model showing this feature.
The Canadian model always seems to take every little ripple in the tropics and blow it up into a hurricane.
So, why are we mentioning it now? There are a few reasons.
Other models are starting to show the potential for something to develop near the Bahamas or Florida late this week or early next week.
The Canadian model has been slightly better than many of the other models in regards to the tropics so far this season.
It’s had this feature with very little variation for at least 6 consecutive model runs.
That last point is the main reason why we at least feel the need to mention it. This model has not really wavered much at all, and consistency is one of the things we look for in a model before we start to trust its solution. Add in the fact that other models are starting to come around, and well, it’s something we need to keep an eye on. This does not mean that a massive hurricane is going to wipe out the East Coast just before Labor Day. If anything does materialize, we’ll obviously keep you informed, but for now, it’s just something to keep in the back of your mind. (Of course, now that we’ve mentioned it, the next run of the Canadian model will likely change its tune completely)
Forecast for Atlantic Disturbance 92L based on the Canadian GEM model initialized Sunday evening. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
We’ve actually got a fairly straightforward forecast for much of this week, so we’ll get right to it.
The week starts off with high pressure bringing us sunshine and seasonable temperatures for Monday. A cold front moves through on Tuesday, with some showers and thunderstorms expected. A few of them could be on the strong side, but the bulk of the activity will remain to the north and west of most of the people reading this. Drier weather returns behind the front on Wednesday. Clouds return on Thursday ahead of another system. This is where we get to our question mark of the week – when will it rain?
Some models have the rain come in for Thursday night and Friday, others for Friday into Friday night. The timing of the rain and the cold front will also have implications on the temperatures, especially on Friday. These questions really can’t be answered yet. Things start to improve on Saturday, though another shower can’t be ruled out. High pressure then returns for Sunday.
Some pretty big waves are possible along south-facing beaches by Wednesday as Tropical Storm Gert passes well offshore. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Turning our attention to the tropics, we have Tropical Storm Gert, which is in between the East Coast and Bermuda. Unless you are a boater or are planning a cruise to Bermuda this week, you have nothing to worry about. Gert will strengthen some more, possibly even becoming a hurricane in a day or two. It will head northward, then make a sharp right turn and head out into the open Atlantic without threatening any land areas.
Model forecast for the track of Tropical Storm Gert. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Perhaps you’ve heard rumblings of another system in the Atlantic? Yes, there is a wave that came off of Africa recently, and will be monitored as it makes it’s journey westward. Yes, it’s true that some of the models show it strengthening and possibly even threatening the East Coast. Here’s the thing, and we have mentioned this before. The models suck at predicting these things until they actually form. Even then, they’re not that much better. For example, the GFS model, which is the one that most people look at because it goes out 16 days had the storm that eventually became Gert. As we mentioned earlier, Gert is about halfway between the East Coast and Bermuda, and has a central pressure of 1009mb. If you go back and look at the GFS forecast from 11 days ago, it had Gert this evening centered about 50 miles east of Vero Beach, FL as a Category 5 hurricane with a central pressure of 926 mb. If this were the winter, that’d be the equivalent of a forecast of 4 feet of snow and you actually get sunshine. (We don’t want to hear any snide remarks – our forecasts has never been that bad) We’ll step off of our soapbox now, but please keep in mind, unless there’s actually a storm out there, ignore what the computers and especially the Facebook Forecasters have to say.
Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 79-86.
Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 79-86.
Tuesday night: Clearing skies. Low 60-67.
Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 80-87.
Thursday: Clouds slowly thicken up throughout the day. High 77-84.
Friday: Cloudy with showers likely. High 72-79.
Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, another shower or two possible. High 76-83.
Storm HQ 