We’ve reached the final days of 2020, but there may still be a little mayhem on the horizon.
We start the week out on a rather mild note. Low pressure will head up the St. Lawrence Valley today, bringing in some clouds but also milder weather. There could be a shower or two, but the bulk of the precipitation associated with this storm will stay to our north and west. The storm drags a cold front across the region at night, putting an end to our brief mild spell. Breezy and colder conditions settle in for Tuesday as high pressure starts to build back in. Wednesday also looks to be on the cold side, but should be less windy, so it won’t feel as cold.
Temperatures could reach 50 in parts of the region this afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
This brings us to the final day of a year that most of us are all too happy to see end. Another low pressure area passes to our north and west, with milder conditions once again and some rain showers, though it does look like it should be dry for midnight if you are planning to be out and about. However, the cold front trailing that system will likely stall out near or just south of the region while high pressure tries to build in from the north early on New Year’s Day. Another low pressure area will start heading toward the Midwest that day as well. The front to our south will try to head back northward as a warm front, but with high pressure to the north, cold air may remain in place at the surface, especially across the interior. As the precipitation starts to move in, we may have warm air aloft and cold air at the surface, which would be a recipe for freezing rain. Obviously, being this far out, things will likely change, but we could be looking at icing, possibly some significant icing, across the interior. This system will take it’s time moving toward the region, so even though the warmer air should eventually win out and change everything to plain rain, the rain may continue into Saturday before winding down. High pressure builds in on Sunday with drier and cooler weather. We should have some additional clarity on this situation later this week in our Weekend Outlook, which may be published on Wednesday again.
The models don’t agree on what type of precipitation we’ll have on Friday, or whether we’ll have any at all. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Plenty of clouds, breezy, just a slight chance for a shower. High 43-50.
Monday night: Clearing. Low 24-31.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, some clouds around during the afternoon, breezy. High 29-36.
Tuesday night: Clear and chilly. Low 14-21, though some of the normally colder locations could drop into the single digits.
Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine. High 33-40.
New Year’s Eve: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely during the afternoon and evening. High 44-51.
New Year’s Day: Cloudy with a chance for rain near the coast, but a wintry mix of snow, sleet, or freezing rain is possible inland. Precipitation should gradually change to rain inland as we head through the overnight hours. High 38-45.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with more showers possible. High 43-50.
Hope you enjoyed the 60-degree temperatures on Sunday, because changes are coming. It’s going to snow this week, likely more than once for many of us.
Sunday was a mild day across most of the region. Image provided by NOAA.
A cold front moved across the region overnight and is now south of us. Low pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and ride along that frontal system today. Precipitation will move in towards midday and continue through the afternoon, ending in the evening. Temperatures will be near or above freezing, so we’ll see a mix of rain and snow, likely changing over to snow before ending in many areas as colder air filters in behind the system. We’re not expecting much accumulation, mainly an inch or so, and mainly south of the Mass Pike. A few places could see up to 2 inches in heavier bursts, but overall this isn’t a big deal. However, since it will fall during the afternoon, it could make a mess of the afternoon commute, so keep that in mind if you are not working from home. North of the Mass Pike, we’re only looking at some flurries, if that, with the ground getting coated in some locations.
Not much snow is expected today, but the timing will make it a bit more impactful. Image provided by WeatherBell.
That storm will move into Atlantic Canada on Tuesday, and strengthen into a powerful storm system. Gusty northwest winds behind the storm will usher much cooler air in for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure moves into southeastern Canada. This will become important as we head into later Wednesday and Thursday as the next storm system moves towards the area.
Wednesday morning could be rather chilly across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
As you’ve no doubt heard by now, a rather strong storm system will impact the East Coast later Wednesday into Thursday. With high pressure to the north, we’ll have plenty of cold air in place, so anything that does fall will almost certainly fall in the form of snow. As the storm strengthens, it will produce gusty winds in some areas, which combined with the high astronomical tides, could result in some coastal flooding, especially east and northeast-facing locations. Beyond that, there’s a lot of uncertainty. That storm that moved into Atlantic Canada will not move too much, and it will have an impact on the track our mid-week storm takes. Another factor will be the high pressure area to our north. It will try to send cool and dry air southward into the region. This will likely result in a sharp cutoff of the precipitation, going from heavy snow to virtually no snow over a relatively small area. Where that cutoff sets up is also still in question. The models, while in general agreement that a powerful storm will move off the Atlantic Coast and south of New England, differ on some of the finer details, which have an enormous impact on the forecast. It’s still WAY too early to pin down any specifics, so we won’t bother to attempt it. We’ll just say that the potential exists for a significant snowstorm across the region from late Wednesday into Thursday. Beyond that, we’ll offer more details in a special blog post on Tuesday.
Differences among the models can have a big impact on the forecast for the storm around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Behind the storm, high pressure builds back in for Friday and Saturday with dry and chilly conditions. If there’s fresh snow on the ground, some places could get quite chilly at night, especially Thursday night and Friday night. By Sunday, the high moves offshore and temperatures will start to moderate. However, another system may bring in some rain or snow. We’ll worry about that one after we get through the first two.
Monday: Cloudy with rain or mixed precipitation developing around midday, eventually changing to light snow by late afternoon. High 32-39.
Monday night: Light snow ends in the evening, then skies clear out overnight. Low 23-30.
Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 28-35.
Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, clouds move in late at night. Low 12-19.
Wednesday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with snow possible late in the day and at night. High 24-31.
Thursday: Cloudy and windy with snow likely, ending during the afternoon. High 24-31.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 27-34.
Saturday: Sunny in the morning, clouds return in the afternoon. High 30-37.
Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 37-44.
We’ve got a fairly quiet week coming up across the region with a moderating trend as well.
We start the week off with high pressure in control, providing us with dry and cool conditions. We’ll start off sunny, but high clouds will start to stream in during the afternoon ahead of low pressure moving off the Carolina coast. That system will pass well to our south and east on Tuesday, but the flow around it, moving over the still relatively mild ocean, could help generate a few ocean-effect rain or snow showers, mainly across Cape Cod and east-coastal Massachusetts, especially coastal Plymouth County and Cape Ann. That system pulls away Tuesday night, but another weak upper-level disturbance swings through on Wednesday. Moisture will be limited with this system, but again, a few rain or snow showers can’t be ruled out, mainly well north and west of Boston. High pressure builds in again for Thursday and Friday with generally dry weather and moderating temperatures.
Temperatures should start to moderate by Thursday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Things start to get active again next weekend. Most of the models show a low pressure area heading into the Great Lakes and then southeastern Canada. This would result in a warmup around here with some rain likely as the storm drags a frontal system toward the region. However, most of these same models showed a similar scenario for the storm we just had on Saturday. Also, some of the members of the various ensembles show the potential for a secondary area of low pressure to develop south of New England, a common occurrence with low pressure areas that pass well to our west. If this were to happen, it would result in the warm air never making it in here. Now, this doesn’t mean we’ll be in for another snowstorm. It also doesn’t mean that we won’t get well into the 50s with more rain. Obviously, things can and will change as we head through the week. Consider our forecast for next weekend to be “low confidence” right now.
Several members of the GFS Ensemble show a secondary area of low pressure near or south of Southern New England next Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Sunshine fades behind thickening afternoon clouds. High 32-39.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, a few flurries may develop late at night near the east coast. Low 19-26.
Tuesday: More clouds than sun, a few rain or snow showers possible near the coast. High 29-36.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 17-24.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a rain or snow shower, favoring areas north and west of Boston. High 34-41.
Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 40-47.
Friday: Sunshine dimmed by some afternoon high clouds. High 40-40.
Saturday: Plenty of clouds with showers possible, mainly late in the day and at night. High 47-54.
Sunday: Cloudy with a chance for more showers, mainly early. High 49-56.
Our storm is well underway, and we’ve got some changes to the forecast.
Low pressure is taking shape off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning. Image provided by the Weather Prediction Center.
In the big picture, not a lot has changed this morning. Low pressure is just east of the Delmarva Peninsula this morning, and it will head northeastward today, intensifying rapidly as it passes close to or over Nantucket this afternoon, before heading into the Gulf of Maine tonight. Rain has overspread the region this morning, and has been heavy at times, while temperatures have dropped into the middle 30s to lower 40s. Across the higher elevations of Worcester County, the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire, and the Berkshires, the rain has changed over to snow already.
Heavy rain is falling in many areas with a change to snow across the higher elevations of the interior. Loop provided by Weathertap.
Most of this is in line with the forecast we posted yesterday, the timing is just a little quicker. There still isn’t a lot of cold air to work with at the surface, but the storm is quite intense, and the heavier precipitation is dragging the cold air down from aloft. This will allow the rain to change to snow as the day goes on across much of the remainder of the region from west to east. Temperatures likely will stay in the lower 30s, so it will be a heavy, wet snow, and if the intensity lightens up, it could flip back to rain in spots. This could mean the difference between several inches of snow in one spot, and much less in a nearby location. Along the coast, where water temperatures are still in the 40s, it will take a little longer to flip to snow, thanks to the moderating influence of the marine air.
We’ll also have some strong winds to deal with later today, especially along the coastline. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been posted for parts of the region. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 50 mph or more are expected, mainly this afternoon and evening as the storm center passes near and just east of the region. Some gusts to 60 mph or more can’t be ruled out, especially across coastal Plymouth County along with Cape Cod and the Islands.
Strong winds are likely this afternoon and evening, especially near the coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Here’s where there is still some unknowns. There are likely to be bands of very heavy snow that develop as the system really gets cranked up. These could produce snowfall totals of 1-3 inches per hour. Where they set up is extremely difficult to predict in advance, and these bands could be as little as 5-10 miles wide. We’ve already had one band of very heavy rain setup from Worcester northeastward to the Merrimack Valley this morning. The western edge of this band changed to snow in the higher elevations in Worcester County. Similar bands are likely to form later today. Places just outside these bands could see significantly less snow these spots just a few miles down the road that get stuck under the bands. This obviously complicates the snowfall forecast.
Here’s our updated thoughts on the changeover timing:
Mid/Late morning: The higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southwestern New Hampshire Late Morning/Midday: Southern New Hampshire Midday/Early Afternoon: Merrimack Valley and New Hampshire Seacoast Early/Mid Afternoon: MetroWest and the North Shore as well as Northern Rhode Island Late Afternoon/Early Evening: I-95 corridor from Boston to Providence and Southeastern Massachusetts.
Everything should wind down and end by midnight as the storm moves into the Gulf of Maine and pulls away from the area. As for snowfall, there is still a wide range among many of the models, so forecast confidence is still below average.
Having said all of that, here’s our best estimate right now for snowfall:
Dusting (if that): Cape Cod and the Islands 1-3″: Southeastern Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island 3-5″: I-95 corridor from Boston to Providence 4-7″: North Shore/New Hampshire Seacoast (heaviest inland) 5-9″: Merrimack Valley/Southern New Hampshire/MetroWest/Northern Rhode Island 6-12″: Worcester County/Southwestern New Hampshire
Some of the hills in Central Massachusetts and Southwestern New Hampshire, especially above 1000 feet, will likely see more than a foot.
The storm is already underway, but there is still a wide range in snowfall forecasts among the model. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Once the system passes by, we’ll have drier and cooler weather for the next several days. The only possible fly in the ointment is another system that is expected to pass well south and east of the region on Tuesday. Right now, it should be too far offshore to have much, if any, impact on our area, but we’ll keep an eye on it.
It won’t feel like the last day of November as we start the week on a windy, warm, and wet note.
A strong storm system will move up the Appalachians today, passing west of the region. This will allow unseasonably mild air into the area on gusty south to southeast winds. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph are expected, with some gusts of 50-60 mph (or higher) possible, especially near the coast. Temperatures will get well into the 50s across the region today, with many areas, especially in eastern Massachusetts possibly topping 60 by late in the day. The warm weather will be accompanied by rain, some of which may be heavy at times this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible as well. By the time everything winds down at night, much of the region will have received 1-2 inches of rain, with some heavier amounts possible.
Heavy rain is expected across much of the region today. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
As the system moves into southeastern Canada on Tuesday, it will drag a cold front across the region. The day will start off mild, with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s during the morning, but they’ll drop during the afternoon behind the front. A few more showers are also possible, but nothing as heavy as what we’re expecting today.
The NAM model shows the warm air move in today, remain in place into Tuesday morning, then colder air moves in Tuesday afternoon and night. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
By Wednesday, an upper-level low pressure system will move into the Northeast and southeastern Canada, bringing much cooler air in, though it will still be close to normal for early December. We’ll still have plenty of clouds around, and a pop-up shower or two can’t be ruled out, maybe even a snow flurry. High pressure then builds in for Thursday with sunshine. Clouds return Thursday night and Friday along with milder weather ahead of the next storm system.
Next weekend looks unsettled, but pinning down specifics at this point is an effort in futility. The models have performed relatively poorly beyond a few days lately, and there are significant differences in their solutions for next weekend as well. For now, we’ll just go with unsettled conditions, and the chance for some rain both Saturday and Sunday, but there is a possibility that the entire weekend won’t be unsettled. There’s also the possibility that all of the precipitation that falls wouldn’t be just rain. It will be early December, so this shouldn’t be a big surprise. We hope to have much more clarity on this when we write our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
The models have no idea what to do with a potential storm next weekend. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain, possibly heavy at times, maybe a thunderstorm as well. High 55-62.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with diminishing winds, showers taper off toward midnight. Temperatures hold steady overnight.
Tuesday: More clouds than sun, breezy, chance for a few more showers. High 56-63 early, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 31-38.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a sprinkle or flurry. High 39-46.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, some high clouds may start to stream in late in the day. High 41-48.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, showers possible late in the day. High 47-54.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 43-50.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 42-49.
We’re going to put a few dents in that drought this week, as we’ll have a few storms systems to contend with, but it looks like they’ll be mostly rain, with one of them on Thanksgiving Day. Notice that we said “mostly rain”, as we could have some issues Wednesday night, especially in southern New Hampshire.
We’ll get some relief for the drought this week thanks to at least 2 storm systems. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
We start the week off on a wet note as low pressure passes north and west of the region, providing us with a rainy start to the day. Temperatures will be on the mild side this morning, but don’t get used to it. A cold front will cross the region by early afternoon, bringing an end to the rain, but behind it, gusty winds will usher much cooler air back in as skies clear out, leading to a chilly night tonight.
The NAM model shows the warm air ahead of the cold front quickly replaced by much cooler air behind the front this afternoon and evening. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure builds in for Tuesday with dry and cool conditions. It will still be breezy early on as today’s low pressure system continues to pull away, but winds should die down during the afternoon as the high continues to build in. With clear skies and light winds Tuesday night, we’ll have another chilly night, but some high clouds may start to move in late at night, which would prevent temperatures from tumbling too much. Those high clouds will be in advance of a warm front that will approach the region on Wednesday, possibly accompanied by a few showers. This could set up a tricky situation during the late afternoon and evening across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. The warm front may have trouble moving northward during the day, and with chilly air in place and a little bit of precipitation possible, it could fall in the form of a little freezing drizzle, especially in southern New Hampshire, which could result in some slippery conditions Wednesday evening. This is a scenario that happens quite often during the fall and winter, and the models usually handle it poorly, or miss it completely, as they usually overestimate how quickly the warmer air will move in and how far north it can get. We’ve seen the models blow this type of forecast countless times, and the setup is there for it to happen again.
At least one model shows the potential for some icy conditions in southern New Hampshire Wednesday night. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
That next system brings in more rain for Thanksgiving Day. Right now, it looks like most of the rain will be in the morning, but there are still some timing differences among the models, so showers may linger into the afternoon, and possibly even the evening. High pressure builds in behind that system with drier and cooler weather again on Friday, though a few showers are possible as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region.
Next weekend also has some questions, as the models all have differing solutions. Some models want to bring a weak system through late Saturday with some showers, then have high pressure build back in on Sunday, with another system potentially bringing in some rain next Monday. Others keep high pressure in control for much of the weekend, but have the next system move in at some point late Sunday or Sunday night. They also differ on the track of that system, which has significant implications for temperatures on Sunday. So, our forecast for next weekend is very-low confidence at this point, and may end up significantly different when we issue our weekend outlook (which will be on Wednesday this week instead of the normal Thursday).
The potential exists for a decent amount of rain around here between now and next Monday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Breezy with showers and some steadier rain this morning, possibly a rumble of thunder as well, ending by early afternoon, then skies start to clear out by evening. High 54-61 in the morning, but temperatures may drop pretty quickly during the afternoon.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy and breezy. Low 27-34.
Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy in the morning. High 37-44.
Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, high clouds start to move in after midnight. Low 19-26.
Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a shower or two, possibly some freezing drizzle across southern New Hampshire during the evening or at night. High 36-43 north of the Mass Pike, 44-51 south of the Pike.
Thanksgiving: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, ending during the afternoon. High 42-49 in southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, 50-57 elsewhere.
Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 49-56.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 49-56.
Sunday: A sunny start, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 45-52.
After last night’s squall line, conditions will be significantly quieter for most of this week.
That was a fairly impressive squall line for mid-November that came through last evening. Loop provided by the Collegbe of DuPage
High pressure builds into the region today with breezy and cooler conditions as a cold front continues to push offshore. We’ll have some clouds popping up in the afternoon as cooler air moves in aloft, but we should remain dry. Another cold front will move through late Tuesday. This one may produce a few rain or snow showers, but for most of us it will pass through with little fanfare.
A few rain or snow showers are possible on Tuesday as a cold front moves through. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
Behind that front, much colder air will settle in for Wednesday. Temperatures likely won’t reach 40, with wind chills in the 20s or even upper teens. As winds die down Wednesday night, low temperatures will drop into the teens across much of the region. Thursday will still be chilly, but with high pressure sliding offshore, temperatures will start to moderate a bit. The moderating trend continues into the weekend, as temperatures climb back above normal for the latter half of November.
Wind chills will be in the upper teens and 20s Wednesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 45-52.
Monday night: Clear skies. Low 29-36.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a late-day rain or snow shower. High 40-47.
Tuesday night: Clearing, colder. Low 21-28.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 29-36.
The warm and dry weather will continue for a couple more days, but changes are coming.
High pressure remains in control into early Wednesday, which means we’ve got a few more more days with near-record temperatures across the region. While the days will be sunny and warm, the nights will be a bit different. Some low clouds and fog are possible in some areas, especially near the coast. For areas that don’t get any fog, clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling.
Record highs will likely be broken across the Northeast again this afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Wednesday is when the changes start happening. A strong cold front will approach from the west. Ahead of it, we’ll have some rain later Wednesday into Thursday, but it will remain warm, especially if we can get any sunshine during the morning. Since we’re still in a significant drought, and it hasn’t rained for a week, any rain is good news. While we may get some heavy rain, especially along the South Coast, it looks like the bulk of the heavy rain, some of which will be aided by moisture streaming northward from Eta, should stay south of the region.
Much of the region remains in a significant drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
As the front moves offshore, the rain should taper off and end Thursday evening, but the front will stall out south of the region. How far south is still a bit of a question, but it may remain close enough for some additional showers on Friday, mainly along the South Coast, as a wave of low pressure rides along the front.
How much rain will we get this week? Some models show a decent amount, some don’t. Which will be right? Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
High pressure builds in later Friday into Saturday with some cooler conditions, but temperatures will still be near to above normal for mid-November, especially on Friday. Sunday is a bit of a question mark as the next system will be starting to approach from the west, but there are significant differences in the timing of this system, depending on which model you decide to look at.
Monday: Some patchy morning fog, then becoming mostly sunny. High 68-75.
Monday night: Clear skies, some low clouds and fog may return in some spots. Low 45-52, though some spots could drop as low as the upper 30s..
Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 67-74.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, again some low clouds and fog may develop. Low 52-59.
Wednesday: Some early sun, then becoming cloudy and breezy with showers developing late in the day, becoming a steady rain at night. High 67-74.
Thursday: Plenty of clouds with rain likely, ending late in the day. High 59-66.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few showers are possible along the South Coast, especially early. High 49-56.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High 48-55.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 47-54.
We’ve got a busy start to the week, then things get rather simple as we head into the middle and end of the upcoming week.
Wind Advisories are in effect for much of the Northeast for Monday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
We start off with a blustery and chilly day in the wake of a strong cold front that moved through overnight. Gusty west to northwest winds will usher some chilly air back into the region, similar to what we had on Saturday. There will be some sunshine, but also a decent amount of cloudiness. The clouds will become more widespread at night as winds die down, thanks to an approaching Alberta Clipper. This will move through early Tuesday morning, bringing in some snow or rain showers, maybe even a few squalls. We’re not expecting much, if any, accumulation for most of us, but any squalls could whiten the ground and possibly drop up to half an inch of snow. These will be most likely north of Route 2, especially in the Worcester Hills and the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire. Once that system moves through, skies will clear out, but we’ll have another blustery and chilly afternoon on Tuesday.
Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are possible across the region today. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Conditions become more tranquil on Wednesday as high pressure builds in with sunshine, lighter winds, and moderating temperatures. After that, the high moves offshore and remains there for the rest of the week and into the weekend. The result is generally fair weather with above normal temperatures. Some places could even make a run at 70 by next weekend.
Temperatures could reach 70 in many areas this coming weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, windy, and chilly. High 36-43.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, rain or snow showers possible late at night. Low 27-34 during the evening, temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.
Tuesday: Any rain or snow showers (or squalls) ending in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. High 40-47.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 23-30.
Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, milder. High 48-55.
Here at Storm HQ, we like to separate fact from fiction, or more appropriately, hype from reality. So, we’re going to do that once again in regards to a few topics involving this week’s weather.
Claim: 2020 is now the most active Hurricane Season on record.
Reality: Nope, it isn’t. Not yet at least. With the formation of now-Tropical Storm Zeta a few days ago, many people, including many that should know better, were quick to proclaim that 2020 had now tied 2005 as the busiest Atlantic Hurricane Season ever, since the last named storm in 2005 was also Zeta. However, many people didn’t bother to review that 2005 season. Every year, when the season ends (officially: November 30), the folks down at the National Hurricane Center do a review of everything, to see if there were any storms that they missed. It turns out, that in 2005, there was an unnamed subtropical storm that was added after the fact. So, 2005 ended up with 28 storms of tropical storm strength, and 2020 only has 27 such storms so far.
For those counting, 2005 still holds the record for the most number of named storms in a season (28). NHC identified an "unnamed" subtropical storm in its post-season analysis that year, which is included in the total. With #Zeta, the number for 2020 currently stands at 27.
As for Zeta itself, after making landfall in the Yucatan just south of Cancun last night with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, it has weakened to a tropical storm. However, as of midday, the center was moving into the Gulf of Mexico, and it is expected to re-intensify into a hurricane later today. While Zeta is currently heading northwestward, a turn more toward the north and eventually northeast is expected over the next 24-36 hours, as a trough of low pressure in the nation’s midsection pulls the storm in. Unfortunately, that means that Zeta will likely make landfall as a hurricane late Wednesday afternoon or evening along the central Gulf Coast. The current forecast has landfall in southeastern Louisiana, but anywhere from western Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should keep an eye on Zeta’s progress. Strong winds, storm surge, and flooding from heavy rain are all threats with this storm.
Tropical Storm Zeta is moving into the Gulf of Mexico at midday. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Claim: An historic arctic outbreak is impacting much of the Rockies and Plains.
Reality: This one is definitely true. It’s been brutally cold out there for the past few days, with many records not only being broken, but being annihilated, and in some cases, these records have stood for over 100 years. In Bozeman, Montana, the low temperature Monday morning was 20 below zero. The record low for the day was 11 above zero, set back in 2002. When a record low is broken by 31 degrees, that’s historic. The low of -20 also shattered that city’s record low for the month of October, which was -14. Again, beating a monthly record by 6 degrees doesn’t happen that often. A little farther to the south is the town of Lyman, Wyoming. Lyman was the nation’s cold spot on Monday, when the low temperature bottomed out at 31 degrees below zero. That’s the actual temperature, not the wind chill. This is the earliest in the season that anywhere in the Lower 48 states has ever dropped to 30 below or colder, breaking a record set on October 29, 1917. With all of this cold air in place, and a storm system in the Desert Southwest, snow and ice have been common from the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains and parts of Texas. This storm system and the cold air will move eastward over the next few days, but the air should moderate significantly.
It’s a wintry morning from the Southern Plains into parts of Texas and New Mexico. Loop provided by Weathertap.
Claim: Snow in Southern New England in October means that Winter won’t feature much snow.
Reality: As with most things involving winter in New England, this one varies. Most people believe this to be true because after the big pre-Halloween snowstorm (“Snowtober”) in 2011, we didn’t get much snow through the rest of the winter. Something similar happened in 1979, when we received measurable snow on October 9-10, then little to no snow through most of the winter. The problem is, those aren’t the only times it’s ever snowed in October around here. Using data for Lowell, snow has been recorded in October during 18 of the past 91 years. During those 18 years, Lowell has averaged 53″ of snow, compared to a “normal” winter, when Lowell averages 55.8″ of snow. Of these 18 winters, all of them except for 1979-80, 2001-02, and 2011-12 featured at least one month between November and April with above normal snow. (1979 and 2011 both had above normal snow in October). Of the remaining 15, 12 of them had at least two months with above normal snow. Of the 18 overall, 13 of them featured above normal snowfall in either December, January, or both months. So, if we see some flakes on Friday, it does not automatically mean that we won’t see much this winter. (Sorry!)
After “Snowtober” we didn’t get much snow during the following winter, but that’s not always the case when it snows in October. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
Claim: The first snowstorm of the winter is expected on Friday.
Reality: Unless you live in the hills of Worcester County or in southwestern New Hampshire, this is probably not true. We talked about this in our Weekly Outlook yesterday – the pattern for the end of the week is complex, but things are looking a little clearer today. What’s left of Zeta will pass south of the region on Thursday, bringing some much-needed rain into the area. However, it looks like the bulk of the heavy rain may stay south of New England. Right behind it will be the system that is producing wintry weather across the Southern Plains. That system will pass to our south Thursday night and early Friday. As colder air gets drawn southward behind Zeta’s remnants, and the moisture from the second storm moves in, we’ll likely see the rain mix with or change over to sleet and snow across the hills of Worcester County and into the Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire. In these spots, we could see some minor accumulations, possibly a few inches. For the rest of us from southern New Hampshire into eastern Massachusetts, some sleet or snow will likely mix with the rain before it ends Friday afternoon. While there could be some slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces in southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, this is far from definite and certainly isn’t a “snowstorm”, despite any hype from the local media. Plus, as we mentioned at the start of this paragraph, it isn’t even that uncommon. It happens on average once every five years in Lowell, and the last time that it happened was – five years ago, in 2015.
Saturday morning will be quite chilly across the region, with a killing freeze for everyone except possibly the Cape and Islands. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
Once that storm moves away, some of the modified arctic air will move in, resulting in the coldest night of the season thus far. Temperatures will drop into the 20s across much of the area Saturday morning, resulting in a killing freeze in many places that have not yet had one. So, if you still have any plants outside that need to be brought in, now is the time. Despite sunshine, temperatures will only reach the 40s Saturday afternoon. For any kids that are trick-or-treating during the late afternoon or evening, temperatures will only be in the upper 30s to middle 40s, so make sure they are dressed properly for the weather.
Storm HQ 