We’ve got a fairly typical pattern for Spring as we pass the quarter pole for 2022 and begin April.
A cold front will approach the region tonight with some rain and showers likely, possibly even a thunderstorm. The rain ends Friday morning as the cold front moves through, but the air behind it isn’t that cold, so we’ll remain mild during the day. However, another cold front quickly follows during the evening, with another shower possible ahead of it. High pressure builds in for Saturday with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Clouds return Saturday night as another weak system approaches the region. It may produce a few showers on Sunday, but a washout is not expected. High pressure then builds back in for Monday with dry and cool conditions.
Average high temperatures for the first few days of April should be in the lower to middle 50s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Cloudy and breezy with rain and showers likely, possibly a thunderstorm. Low 47-54.
Friday: Showers end early, otherwise clouds with some afternoon sunny breaks, chance for another shower late in the day, breezy. High 55-62 in the morning, temperatures may start to drop a little in the afternoon.
Friday night: Chance for a shower during the evening, then clearing overnight, still breezy. Low 28-35.
Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 48-55.
Saturday night: Increasing clouds. Low 29-36.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with showers possible during the afternoon. High 47-54 in the morning, temperatures may drop in the afternoon.
Sunday night: Showers end in in the evening, followed by late-night clearing. Low 31-38.
The weather won’t exactly be that great for the next few days, but it could be a lot worse.
Rain will become steadier and heavier this evening and tonight as low pressure passes south and east of Cape Cod. The rain should taper off and end toward daybreak, then we’ll see some clearing, and temperatures will actually turn a bit milder for Friday afternoon. However, an upper-level low pressure system will slowly make its way into the Northeast, and will take all weekend to do so. What that means for actual weather is we’ll have sunshine in the morning, then clouds will develop, with a few pop-up showers both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will also be a bit cooler. In fact, with cold air aloft, some of those showers could contain some graupel, which is small, soft hail. Even colder air moves in for Monday, which will feel more like winter than spring, with temperatures likely in the 30s for highs. Don’t be surprised if there’s a snow flurry or two as that upper-level low will be slow to depart.
Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal on Monday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Rain likely, tapering off toward daybreak. Low 37-44.
Friday: Any lingering showers end early, some clearing during the afternoon. High 55-62.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 34-41.
Saturday: Sunshine and afternoon clouds, chance for a shower or two. High 50-57.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 32-39.
Sunday: Partly sunny, breezy, chance for a shower or two. High 45-52.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 20-27.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, slight chance for a rain or snow shower. High 31-38.
If there’s one constant to expect this weekend, it’s change. We’ve got some big swings coming up over the next few days.
Showers end this evening as low pressure pulls away to the south and east of New England. High pressure builds into the region for Friday with a very mild airmass accompanying it on southwest to west winds. With sunshine during the day, we’ll see temperatures get well into the 60s for much of the area, with lower 70s likely at many locations away from the coast. Right along the coastline, especially the South Coast, a seabreeze is likely, and with water temperatures still in the 40s, we’ll see temperatures drop into the 40s right at the water’s edge, with 50s a short distance inland. Clouds will start to move in late in the day as low pressure begins to approach the Northeast. Rain will move in early Saturday morning along with much cooler conditions. In fact, Saturday does not look like a pleasant day, with occasional rain and temperatures only in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunday looks a little better, but with an upper-level low crossing the Northeast, we’ll still have some clouds and possibly a few showers, with temperatures again mainly in the 50s, which is actually above normal for mid-March. High pressure starts to build back in on Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies, but temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, right around where we should for the middle of March.
Friday should be a very mild day for most of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Showers ending by midnight, some clearing late at night. Low 40-47.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny and mild, clouds start to increase late in the day. High 65-72, cooler along the coast.
Friday night: Becoming cloudy with rain developing before daybreak. Low 39-46.
Saturday: Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain and showers. High 48-55.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with rain ending during the evening. Low 43-50.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a few showers possible, breezy. High 55-62.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 34-41.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy at times. High 49-56.
While the clocks “spring ahead” with Daylight Saving Time beginning this weekend, we’ll still be dealing with winter at times.
High pressure remains in control into Friday with generally dry weather. We’ll be on the chilly side tonight, but temperatures should rebound nicely on Friday, though we’ll see clouds streaming in and thickening up late in the day. This is in advance of a developing low pressure system that will impact us on Saturday. Earlier in the week, it looked like this system would pass west of us, with strong southerly winds bringing in very mild air and rainfall. Well, the latest indications are that the storm will pass right across southern New England, or possibly even south of it. This means that it won’t be as windy or warm as we were thinking earlier, but we’re not looking at a major snowstorm, it’ll still be too mild. We’ll have rain developing by daybreak Saturday, and it could be heavy at times during the day. It may still be quite breezy along the South Coast and across Cape Cod if the system does move across southern New England. Once it passes by during the afternoon it will continue to intensify, with strong northwest winds behind it ushering much colder air back in by late in the day. This will likely result in the rain changing to snow before it ends in the evening. How quickly it changes over and how quickly it moves out will determine whether the snow will accumulate. Right now, the best odds for any accumulation will be from central Massachusetts into southwestern and central New Hampshire. Farther north and west, this will be quite a storm for ski country, which is good news for them.
This storm will be good news for ski country. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Behind the storm, we’ll clear out for Saturday night and Sunday with high pressure building in. It will be breezy and quite chilly, but this won’t last long. Winds will subside Sunday afternoon, and as the high moves off to the east, temperatures will moderate nicely on Monday.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24-31.
Friday: Some morning sun, then increasing and thickening clouds. High 46-53.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy, rain develops before daybreak. Low 31-38.
Saturday: Rain, heavy at times, possibly changing to snow late in the day, becoming windy. High 45-52, possibly a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Temperatures will quickly drop during the afternoon
Saturday night: Windy with rain or snow showers ending in the evening, clearing late at night. Low 16-23.
Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 30-37.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.
Monday: Mostly sunny, some clouds may pop up in the afternoon. High 46-53.
Winter or Spring? It depends on your definition, as March could be either. In terms of the forecast for the next few days, we’ll have both.
For most people, spring (a.k.a. astronomical spring), begins with the vernal equinox, which takes place this year on Sunday March 20 at 11:33AM. For others, meteorological or climatological spring began on March 1. No matter which definition you use, it will feel like winter into Friday. High pressure builds in tonight, with clearing and very cold conditions. Temperatures will likely drop into the single numbers in some of the cold spots Friday morning. Friday will also be rather chilly despite ample sunshine. The high slides off to the east on Saturday as low pressure heads toward the Great Lakes. It will send a warm front toward our area. The front will be accompanied by plenty of clouds, and although temperatures will turn milder with the high sliding offshore, the real mild air won’t be here yet.
Saturday night, that warm front moves through with a few showers possible, but temperatures will rise overnight. Could be there a little freezing rain or sleet over the interior right at the start? Sure it’s possible, but right now, it looks like temperatures might be a tad too warm by the time any precipitation arrives. This sets up a Sunday that will definitely feel like spring, as gusty southwest winds send temperatures to near or even over 60 degrees across the area, except for the South Coast, where the wind off the still-chilly water will act as a seabreeze. What’s the catch? We’ll still have plenty of clouds along with some showers as low pressure passes north and west of the region.
Saturday looks like a mild day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
As the system moves by, it will try to drag a cold front across the area, but it doesn’t look like it will get all the way through. This has implications for Monday. Areas south of the front will stay quite mild Sunday night, while it will turn cooler north of the front. By Monday, another system quickly approaches from the southwest. This one looks a little more potent, but it will ride along that stalled out frontal boundary. Rain will redevelop in the afternoon, and it could be heavy in spots. North of the front, as colder air moves in, we could see a change to snow, especially Monday night into early Tuesday. We’ll look at this in much greater detail in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.
Things could start to get tricky late in the day Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear and cold. Low 7-14.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 28-35.
Friday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds start to filter in late at night. Low 13-20.
Saturday: Increasing and thickening clouds. High 36-43.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, possibly a little wintry mix well inland. Low 27-34 during the evening, temperatures rise overnight.
Sunday: Cloudy, windy, and mild with occasional showers. High 57-64, a little cooler along the South Coast.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 40-47.
Monday: Cloudy with periods of rain or showers developing, possibly mixed with snow or sleet well inland by late in the day and at night. High 47-54, possibly cooler across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts.
While there aren’t any big storms on our horizon, the upcoming week won’t exactly be quiet either.
We start off on a sunny but rather chilly note today with high pressure in control. As the high slides off to the east, temperatures will moderate a bit on Tuesday, but an Alberta Clipper will move through at night, with a few snow or rain showers likely. It pulls away early Wednesday, but another weak system quickly follows for Wednesday night into early Thursday with a few more rain or snow showers expected. High pressure then builds in for late Thursday into Friday with dry and cold weather once again.
High temperatures should be in the upper 30s to lower 40s as March begins. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
By Saturday, the high will slide off to the east and a warm front will approach the region, with moderating temperatures. This is where things could get complicated. Low pressure will head into the Great Lakes, whie high pressure builds into Quebec. This may prevent that warm front from actually moving through the region, keeping us chilly for Saturday night and Sunday. Meanwhile, moisture will start to stream into the region ahead of that warm front. This could result in a messy mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and/or rain. It’s still far too early to try and pin down any details, but for now, Sunday looks like it could be messy.
The models are starting to show the potential for a messy weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and some late-day clouds. High 22-29.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 4-11.
Tuesday: Plenty of clouds. High 35-42.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow or rain showers. Low 27-34.
Wednesday: Developing sunshine in the morning, clouds return in the afternoon, snow or rain showers possible at night. High 39-46.
Thursday: More clouds than sun, breezy. High 31-38.
Friday: Sunny early, some clouds during the afternoon. High 29-36.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain. High 32-39.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain. High 33-40.
As we head into the final days of February, yesterday’s record highs are just a memory and a snowstorm now gets all of our attention.
Temperatures at midday were 30-40 degrees colder than they were at this time yesterday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Low pressure will head toward the Ohio Valley tonight, then redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic coast, passing south of New England on Friday. We’ll see snow developing before daybreak on Friday, and it will quickly become heavy. Warmer air will start to move in Friday morning, first aloft, then at the surface. This will allow for a change to sleet, and along the South Coast and Cape Cod, eventually rain. The big question mark remains how far north does that sleet progress, since it will have a significant impact on snow accumulations? At this point, we’re thinking it gets to at least the Mass Pike, possibly Route 2. Is there a chance it makes it into southern New Hampshire? Yes, there is. By early afternoon, precipitation will lighten up, and as the storm starts to pull away, everything will go back to snow from northwest to southeast, with the snow ending during the evening.
How much snow do we expect? We really haven’t changed our thinking too much from yesterday:
Cape Cod: 2-5″ South Coast: 3-6″ Southeastern MA/RI: 5-9″ Metro Boston/MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/North Shore: 7-11″ Central and Southern New Hampshire/NH Seacoast: 6-10″
If the sleet doesn’t mix in, accumulations will be toward the higher end of the ranges, especially locations north of the Mass Pike. The longer that sleet occurs, the more likely accumulations will be toward the lower end of the ranges.
The ECMWF is probably closest to our thinking for snowfall. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Skies clear out late Friday night and Saturday as the storm pulls away and high pressure builds in. Another weak system moves through on Sunday with some clouds and possibly a snow shower or two. High pressure builds back in for Monday with some rather chilly weather for the final day of February.
Monday’s temperatures will be about 15 degrees below normal. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with snow developing 3-5am. Low 19-26.
Friday: Breezy with snow, heavy at times in the morning, mixing with or changing to sleet south of Route 2, and changing to rain across the South Coast. Precipitation lightens up during the afternoon before changing back to snow showers. High 27-34.
Friday night: Snow showers end in the evening, skies start to clear out after midnight. Low 7-14.
Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 27-34.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 13-20.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a snow shower. High 33-40.
We’ve got a little bit of everything coming up over the next several days.
Temperatures are in the upper 50s and lower 60s across most of the region this afternoon. Image provided by NOAA.
We’re starting off with unseasonably mild temperatures in place. Some records were set during the afternoon, and it will remain quite mild tonight as low pressure passes north and west of the region. As that system passes by, it will drag a strong cold front toward the region. A period of rain is likely tonight, and some of it could be heavy. Could there be a rumble of thunder? It’s certainly possible. The combination of rain and mild temperatures should just about take care of any remaining snow on the ground for the most part. We’ll also have some strong winds tonight ahead of that front. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the region, with gusts of 40-60 mph expected, possibly even stronger across the Cape and Islands as well as southeastern Massachusetts.
Strong wind gusts are expected across the region tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The front moves through Friday morning, bringing an end to the rain, and also our mild weather. In fact, temperatures will likely drop during the day as gusty northwest winds usher colder air in, though the winds should diminish during the afternoon. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday night with clear skies and chilly temperatures. Another system will quickly follow for Saturday though. Clouds will stream back in, with some snow showers or squalls possible during the day, possibly mixed with rain across the South Coast and Cape Cod. We’re not expecting much, if any, accumulation for the most part, but a few of these snow showers or squalls could drop a quick 1/2 inch and coat the ground, so keep that in mind if you’ll be out driving. High pressure builds back in for Saturday night and Sunday with clear and chilly conditions once again. However, as that high slides off to the east, temperatures will moderate again for Monday.
Monday is looking like another mild day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly heavy. Temperatures hold steady overnight.
Friday: Showers end early, skies start to clear out in the afternoon. Breezy early, but winds diminish during the afternoon. High 53-60 in the morning, temperatures drop during the day.
Friday night: Clear skies, but some clouds may start to move back in late at night. Low 13-20.
Saturday: More clouds than sunshine and becoming breezy with some snow showers or squalls possible, mixed with a little rain near the South Coast. High 33-40.
Saturday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 12-19.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 31-38.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, milder. High 46-53.
A couple of relatively mild days are expected, but changes are on the way again.
A couple of weak systems will cross the region over the next couple of days, but aside from some clouds, the most noticeable impacts will be mild temperatures ahead of each of the systems. In fact, many parts of the region could top 50 degrees on Saturday. However, a stronger cold front will move through late Saturday, bringing an end to our mild weather. As that front moves offshore and colder air settles in, a wave of low pressure will ride along the front on Sunday. While it will stay well south and east of us, it should be close enough to spread in some light snow or snow showers during the day on Sunday, especially south of Boston. This won’t be a major snowstorm, but an inch or two may accumulate across parts of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. As the system pulls away, snow will end Sunday night, and we’ll clear out on Monday, setting up a very chilly day despite increasing sunshine.
A little snow is possible on Sunday, especially south of Boston. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 24-31.
Friday: Sunshine to start the clear, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 42-49.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 34-41 during the evening, temperatures rise a little overnight.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 49-56, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Becoming cloudy again, light snow or snow showers may develop towards daybreak. Low 21-28.
Sunday: Cloudy and colder with light snow or snow showers expected, especially south of Boston. High 27-34.
We’ve certainly got an eventful weekend coming up across the region.
Another chilly night is expected as high pressure slides offshore, but clouds will start to move in, and temperatures may actually start to rise after midnight as winds shift into the south and southwest. Friday will feature plenty of clouds and somewhat milder temperatures, but an approaching cold front may produce a few snow showers during the afternoon. This brings us to the main event.
Winter Storm Watches are in effect for much of the coastal plain in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
We’ll give you the general idea first, then get into specifics in the next paragraph or four. Low pressure will move up the East Coast Friday night and Saturday. There are still some questions as to exact track and strength, but we are narrowing the possibilities. At this point, it looks like the storm will track just south and east of Nantucket, which means that this will be all snow for everyone, except possibly Nantucket and the Outer Cape. The storm should pull away before daybreak Sunday, with clearing Sunday afternoon, then high pressure builds in with sunshine and colder weather on Monday.
There is still disagreement among the models as to how close the low gets to Nantucket. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Now, let’s get to the details of the storm. As winds shift into the northeast Friday evening, the onshore flow may produce some flurries or snow showers across the region, but these won’t do much more than whiten the ground. The steady snow will spread across the region between 2 and 5am. Between about 10am and 10pm, we’ll have snow falling moderate to heavy at times, especially near the coast and south of Boston. There will be some embedded bands of intense snowfall, falling at the rate of 1-3 inches an hour, but picking out where those will develop is a fool’s errand at this point. The snow should taper off in the evening, and end from west to east between 3 and 6am Sunday. We’ll detail the amounts in a bit, as snow is not the only concern with this system.
As the storm rapidly intensifies, winds will ramp up, with sustained winds of 15-25 mph inland, and 20-40 mph along the coast and south of Boston. Wind gusts in excess of 50-60 mph are possible, especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. This will result in significant blowing and drifting snow, with blizzard conditions possible. It also will increase the threat for power outages, with trees and power lines coming down. The winds, combined with astronomical high tides (Tuesday is the New Moon), will result in coastal flooding, possibly moderate to major coastal flooding, especially at east and northeast-facing coastlines.
Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are likely across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Another factor will be temperatures. We mentioned that this will be all snow for nearly all of the region, but it’s looking like it’ll be a fluffy snow for many of us. This is both good and bad. It’s good, because it makes it a lot easier to clean up, but bad, because it allows the snow to pile up even faster. The reason it will be a fluffy snow is because it’s going to be quite chilly. Areas north and west of Boston may stay in the teens all day Saturday, with 20s from Boston southward. Add in the strong winds, and you’re looking at wind chills in the single numbers and below zero. Keep that in mind if you’re going to try and clean up the driveway a few times during the storm.
OK, we’ve gone over the timing, the winds, the coastal flooding, the temperatures, did we miss anything? Oh yeah, how much to expect. You’ve probably seen or heard that there are many models forecasting some outrageous amounts of snow. Well, as is usually the case, you won’t find that here. Oh, we’re still expecting a rather potent storm, but if you really expect widespread 2-3 feet, then we’re going to disappoint you. Since we’re still 36 hours from the start of the storm, this could still change, and we’ll likely issue another blog post tomorrow, but here’s our current thinking:
Central NH (Lebanon/Concord): 2-6″ Southern NH/Central MA (Manchester/Nashua/Fitchburg): 5-10″ Merrimack Valley/495 Belt/NH Seacoast (Portsmouth/Haverhill/Lowell/Framingham): 8-12″ I-95 corridor (Beverly/Boston/Providence): 10-15″ Southeastern MA/Cape Cod (Brockton/Plymouth/Taunton/Fall River): 12-18″ with some totals in excess of 20″ possible.
The National Blend of Models is fairly close to our thoughts in terms of snowfall. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15-22, but temperatures may start to rise after midnight.
Friday: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. High 30-37.
Friday night: Snow showers becoming a steady light snow, becoming breezy. Low 18-25 north and west of Boston, 26-33 south.
Saturday: Windy with snow, heavy at times. Temperatures will hold steady or drop during the day.
Storm HQ 