Weekend Outlook

Weekend Outlook: February 24-27, 2023

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Winter has finally arrived, and it looks like it may hang around for a while.

Most of the snow overnight fell north of the Mass Pike. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

The second half of our double-barreled low pressure system will move across the region this evening and tonight, with another round of sleet, freezing rain, possibly some light snow, and plain rain near the South Coast. This round of precipitation should be light, and done shortly after midnight. A strong cold front moves through Friday morning, possibly accompanied by a few snow showers. We’ll gradually clear out behind it in the afternoon, but strong northwest winds will usher much cooler air in, with temperatures dropping during the day. High pressure settles in Friday night, resulting in a rather chilly night, with lows dropping into the single numbers, possibly below zero in some of the colder spots, especially into southern New Hampshire. There will still be some wind around, so wind chills will drop below zero. Saturday will be a chilly day, but clouds will quickly return and thicken up as a weak disturbance moves through, possibly producing a few snow showers. Another weak system moves through on Sunday, with a few more snow or rain showers possible, then drier weather returns for Sunday night and early Monday. Clouds move back in during the day on Monday ahead of yet another storm system.

Wind chills likely will be below zero for much of the region when you wake up Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We don’t normally go beyond Monday on the Weekend Outlook, but wanted to address the next storm system currently expected to move in for Monday night and Tuesday. Some of the forecast models have shown the potential for a sizeable snowstorm around here on Tuesday. As you’d expect, the model snow maps have spread like wildfire across the internet. The thing is, right now, it’s just that – potential. The potential storm is still 5 days away, and the forecast models have been horrendous beyond about 2 or 3 days, so why should we trust the models with a 5-day forecast? The Ensembles also show the potential for a snowstorm, but a light to perhaps moderate one, not the blockbuster storm some of the operational models are showing. Yes, this winter has been fairly non-existent until the last few days, but a well-advertised pattern change has taken place. That doesn’t mean that suddenly every storm is going to be all snow (the current one isn’t). We’ll obviously have a lot more detail in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning, but for now, don’t get too concerned about the chance for a blizzard on Tuesday. Certainly you should be prepared for a storm (it is winter in New England after all), but if there’s cause for concern, we’ll let you know.

Many of the 31 members of the GFS Ensemble show only a light to moderate snowstorm Tuesday, highlighting the uncertainty with that system. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Cloudy with a wintry mix of light snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain near the South Coast, ending after midnight. Low 19-26 north of the Mass Pike, 27-34 south of the Pike during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.

Friday: Clouds with some afternoon sunny breaks, windy, a few stray snow showers are possible in the morning. High 31-38 in the morning, temperatures drop through the afternoon.

Friday night: Clearing, except across the Outer Cape, breezy, and cold. Low 3-10.

Saturday: Becoming cloudy with a few flurries possible. High 19-26.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 8-15.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. High 34-41.

Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 15-22.

Monday: Early sun, then increasing clouds. High 32-39.

Weekend Outlook: February 17-20, 2023

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

We’re in an active pattern right now, with lots of rapid-fire changes coming over the next few days.

Low pressure will cross central New England on Friday. Ahead of it, we’ll remain quite mild in Friday morning, but some showers likely tonight. They’ll become more numerous on Friday as the low drags a strong cold front across the region during the morning. Gusty northwest winds behind the front will send temperatures downward fairly quickly Friday afternoon. The rain should come to an end during the evening, but enough colder air may work in that the rain could mix with or change to wet snow before ending across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. We’ll clear out late Friday night, then high pressure builds in for Saturday with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Temperatures start to moderate on Sunday as the high slides offshore, but clouds will also move in as a weak upper-level disturbance moves toward the area. It may produce a few showers Sunday night and early Monday, mainly across Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. Another disturbance passes by late Monday and Monday night with a few more showers possible as it drags a cold front through late in the day.

Temperatures will quickly drop Friday afternoon behind a cold front. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Cloudy and mild with some showers likely. Low 43-50 this evening, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.

Friday: Scattered showers, possibly mixing with wet snow late in the day north of Route 2, becoming windy and much cooler in the afternoon. High 55-62 in the morning (cooler across the NH Seacoast), temperatures drop sharply in the afternoon.

Friday night: Rain or snow showers end in the evening, skies start to clear out late at night, breezy. Low 18-25.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 34-41.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24-31.

Sunday: Increasing clouds, milder. High 42-49.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 33-40.

Monday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers. High 48-55.

Weekend Outlook: February 10-13, 2023

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

As we get into Super Bowl Weekend, the weather won’t be that bad, especially compared to what could happen during early February around here.

Low pressure will head into the Great Lakes tonight, sending a warm front through, with some showers likely ahead of it. The showers should end before daybreak as the storm sends a cold front across the region, but the airmass behind the front isn’t that cold. In fact, it’s actually warmer, so with some sunshine developing on Friday, we’ll actually have a rather warm day, with some record highs possible across our area. A stronger cold front moves through late in the day, with gusty northwest winds ushering more seasonable air in. High pressure builds in for Saturday with sunshine and cool temperatures. It’ll remain breezy in the morning, so it may be a little on the cool side for the morning outdoor activities, but winds will diminish in the afternoon. Sunday starts off nice, but clouds will stream in ahead of a low pressure system that will pass south of the region Sunday night and Monday. Some of the models have the precipitation from that system move into the region, possibly as far north as the Mass Pike, others barely get it to the South Coast. If it does make it this far north, temperatures could be close to freezing, so we could be dealing with a little snow or sleet as well. We are expecting most of the precipitation to stay offshore, but obviously we’ll keep an eye on things.

Some record highs could be challenged on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Showers likely, ending around midnight, breezy. Low 37-44 this evening, then temperatures rise overnight.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy, and mild. High 55-62.

Friday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 26-33.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy early, winds diminish in the afternoon. High 36-43.

Saturday night: Clear skies, clouds start to move in late at night. Low 19-26.

Sunday: Increasing clouds, showers possible near the South Coast late in the day. High 41-48.

Sunday night: Cloudy with a chance for showers, mainly near the South Coast. Low 27-34.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, any showers ending in the morning. High 38-45.

Weekend Outlook: February 3-6, 2023

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Some rather cold air is on the way for the next couple of days, but it’s stay should be rather short.

Saturday morning will be the coldest morning we’ve had around here in several years. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

A strong cold front will cross the region late tonight, possibly accompanied by a few flurries or snow showers. Behind it, gusty northwest winds will usher some arctic air into the New England. This is likely some of the coldest air we’ve had around in several years, so make sure you are prepared for it if you have to go outside. Temperatures will likely have dropped into the teens and lower 20s by the time most of you get out of bed Friday morning, and they will continue to drop during the day despite sunshine. Temperatures will be in the single numbers by evening, and below zero for near the entire region at night. Wind chills will drop below zero during Friday afternoon, and with northwest winds of 20-30 mph gusting to 40 mph at times, we’ll see wind chills in the -20 to -40 range Friday night and early Saturday. Temperatures bottom out in the -5 to -15 range Saturday morning, but it will remain breezy, so we’ll still be dealing with bitterly cold wind chills in the morning. Winds will diminish during the day on Saturday, but temperatures will only slowly rise. The good news is that high pressure will slide offshore, allowing winds to shift into the south and southwest, so temperatures will start to moderate, likely rising all through the night Saturday night, but we’ll also have some clouds starting to move in as a frontal system begins to approach from the west. By Sunday, temperatures will be above normal again, likely reaching 40 for most of us. A few showers are possible Sunday night as the frontal system moves through and another passes well to the south, then we’ll see some sunshine and mild temperatures again on Monday.

Wind chills will bottom out in the -20 to -40 range before daybreak Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, slight chance for a snow shower, breezy. Low 13-20.

Friday: Mostly sunny, windy and turning sharply colder, chance for a few snow showers across the Outer Cape. High 13-20 early, temperatures drop during the day.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, windy, and bitterly cold. Low -6 to -13.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to filter in later in the day, breezy in the morning. High 11-18.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, becoming breezy again late at night. Low 8-15 during the evening, temperatures rise overnight.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds, windy, and milder. High 39-46.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for a few showers across Southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Low 27-34.

Monday: Morning clouds and possibly a few showers in southeastern Massachusetts give way to some afternoon sun, breezy. High 41-48.

Weekend Outlook: January 27-30, 2023

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Drier weather will return for a few days, but won’t last for too long.

Most of the region has received 5-10 inches of rain (not snow) over the past month. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

High pressure builds in for tonight and Friday with some clearing and temperatures remaining on the mild side for late January. A weak front will move through on Saturday with some clouds and possibly a rain or snow shower, but for the most part, it will remain dry. The front stalls out just to the south, keeping plenty of clouds around for Saturday night and Sunday. On Sunday it will start moving northward again as a warm front, ahead of low pressure heading toward the eastern Great Lakes. That low passes across Northern New England Sunday night and Monday, producing a few rain or snow showers across our area. We’ll start to clear out behind the system later on Monday.

Temperatures will remain above to well above normal over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 22-29.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Friday night: Variably cloudy, chance for a few late-night rain or snow showers. Low 21-28.

Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 39-46.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 24-31.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, breezy. High 42-49.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few rain or snow showers. Low 25-32.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with a few rain or snow showers early, some clearing late in the day. High 39-46.

Weekend Outlook: January 20-23, 2023

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

We’re getting into a more active weather pattern around here, and also one that is a bit more wintry.

Tonight’s storm will bring a little bit of everything to the region. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

Low pressure will head into the Midwest tonight while a secondary area of low pressure develops across the northern Mid-Atlantic states and passes just south of New England tonight. Rain will overspread much of the region over the next few hours, except for central New Hampshire, where precipitation will likely start as some snow. As that secondary area of low pressure passes by to the south tonight, winds will shift into the north, allowing cooler air to settle in, and the rain/snow line to start migrating southward. The steadiest precipitation likely ends before daybreak, but the old low pressure system will move through during the day on Friday, with occasional snow showers north and west of Boston, and occasional rain showers changing to snow showers from Boston southward. The rain/snow line likely doesn’t reach the South Coast before everything winds down late Friday afternoon or evening. How much snow can we expect?

South and east of I-95: Less than 1″
MetroWest/North Shore: 1-2″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 2-4″
Southern/Central NH: 3-6″

This will not be a big snowmaker for much of our region. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We may see some clearing on Saturday as high pressure tries to move in, but clouds quickly return Saturday night as another system heads toward the region. This one looks to be mostly rain for Sunday night into Monday morning, but it may start as snow across southern New Hampshire, and the rain may change to snow before ending across the region Monday morning. We’ll clear out behind the system Monday afternoon, but it will be quite breezy.

Northwest winds may gust to 30-40 mph Monday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Rain developing across the region, except snow across central New Hampshire. Rain changes to snow as we head through the night across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. Low 29-36.

Friday: Occasional snow showers north and west of Boston, with rain showers changing to snow showers from Boston southward. High 34-41 in the morning, temperatures drop during the day.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, any lingering rain or snow showers end in the evening. Low 20-27.

Saturday: Becoming partly sunny. High 30-37.

Saturday night: Clouds return. Low 11-18 across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, 19-26 elsewhere.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High 36-43.

Sunday night: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain likely, possibly starting as snow across southern New Hampshire. Low 30-37, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.

Monday: Rain may change to snow before ending in the morning, becoming partly sunny and windy in the afternoon. High 40-47 early, temperatures drop during the day.

Weekend Outlook: January 13-16, 2023

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

What seemed like a relatively simple forecast just a day or two ago suddenly is a bit more complicated for parts of the region.

Low pressure currently in the Ohio Valley will pass north and west of the region on Friday. A warm front ahead of the system will move through tonight, accompanied by some showers this evening which will become a steadier rain overnight. Temperatures will also rise behind the warm front tonight. By the time you wake up on Friday, temperatures should be in the lower to middle 50s, but won’t go up any further. A cold front will move through during the morning, and it will bring an end to the rain, but temperatures will start falling in the afternoon behind the front. That front will likely stall out once it gets offshore, keeping plenty of clouds around, especially closer to the coast. Saturday looks to be a cloudy, cooler, and drier day across the region.

Some heavy rain is possibly across the region tonight and Friday morning. Iage provided by Weathermodels.com.

Late Saturday is where the uncertainty comes into the forecast. A wave of low pressure will begin riding up the stalled out front offshore. How close it comes to the Cape and Islands varies by which model you look at, which has an impact on the forecast. Some models keep the system well offshore, with little to no impact on us. Some models bring it close enough for some rain or snow showers across the Cape and possibly southeastern Massachusetts, and some bring in steadier snow to parts of eastern Massachusetts. No matter what track it takes, gusty north to northeast winds will probably also generate some ocean-effect snow across parts of Cape Cod and possibly Plymouth County. For now, we’re leaning toward the middle ground of the model scenarios, but obviously will keep a close eye on how things progress. High pressure builds in behind the system Sunday night into Monday with dry and cool conditions.

Some snow is possible across parts of southeastern Massachusetts this weekend, depending on which model you believe. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Periods of rain, breezy. Temperatures slowly rising overnight.

Friday: Rain ending by early afternoon, remaining cloudy. High 50-57 in the morning, temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 27-34.

Saturday: Plenty of clouds, possibly a few breaks of sunshine. High 34-41.

Saturday night: Cloudy, chance for some snow or rain showers across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Low 22-29.

Sunday: Snow showers possible across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, some clearing late in the day. High 32-39.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 36-43.

Weekend Outlook: January 6-9, 2023

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

The weather pattern will start to quiet down again this weekend, but not before some of us get some snow on Friday.

Drizzle and fog (and a little freezing drizzle) will gradually taper off tonight as a cold front continues to push offshore. An upper-level system quickly follows for Friday. With colder air in place, precipitation will be mainly in the form on snow north and west of Boston, while areas near the coast and south of Boston likely see mostly rain, with some snow mixed in, especially as everything winds down. Snow likely develops during the late morning hours and ends during the evening. It should be mostly light, but some bursts of moderate to perhaps heavy snow are possible. For accumulations, south and east of I-95 will have some slush at most. Areas north and west of I-95 are looking at a general 1-2″ with some spots possibly picking up 3-4″ if these heavier bursts do materialize. We’ll still have some clouds around on Saturday, then we should clear out for Sunday and Monday with seasonably chilly conditions expected.

Friday’s snow shouldn’t be a big deal, especially as you get closer to the coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Plenty of clouds, drizzle and fog linger, especially during the evening. Low 31-38.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, light snow developing north and west of I-95, rain south and east, possibly changing to snow late in the day. High 35-42.

Friday night: Snow and rain end in the evening, then skies become partly cloudy. Low 27-34.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 36-43.

Saturday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 19-26.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 31-38.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 37-44.

Weekend Outlook: December 30, 2022 – January 2, 2023

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

We’ve endured plenty of chilly Frist Night celebrations over the years around there. This year won’t be one of them.

Temperatures will average 10-15 degrees normal over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure slides offshore tonight and Friday, with dry and mild conditions expected. Clouds start to stream in Friday night ahead of a low pressure system moving this way. Saturday will be another mild, albeit cloudy, day. Showers will develop toward evening, becoming a steady rain overnight. So, if you’re heading out to celebrate New Year’s Eve, bring a raincoat. The rain should come to an end New Year’s morning, then skies clear out during the afternoon as the low pulls away and high pressure builds back in. For Monday, we should have partly to mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures, perfect for viewing the Winter Classic at Fenway (not so perfect for the ice condition).

Weather shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Winter Classic on Monday. Image provided by Warner Brothers.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 28-35.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny and mild. High 48-55.

Friday night: Increasing clouds. Low 37-44.

Saturday: Cloudy with showers developing toward evening. High 51-58.

Saturday night: Periods of rain. Low 43-50.

Sunday: Showers end early, skies start to clear out in the afternoon. High 50-57.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 29-36.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 44-51.

Weekend Outlook: December 23-26, 2022

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

There used to be a waterpark in Orlando named Wet n’ Wild. That could also describe our forecast for the next 24 hours.

A rather potent storm system is moving toward the Great Lakes, producing blizzard conditions across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Behind the storm, arctic air is plunging southward from Canada. How cold is this airmass? When the front goes through, some places have dropped 30-40 degrees in an hour. In Denver, the temperature dropped to -24 this morning, just 1 degree off of their all-time record low for December. Up in the Northwest Territories of Canada, RabbitKettle Lake dropped to -64 this morning. That’s actual temperature, not wind chill. The airmass will moderate significantly before reaching us, but some colder air is definitely on the way.

Rain will move in this evening, and could be heavy at times overnight into Friday morning. Winds will start to pick up tonight, and should really be cranking Friday morning and into the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-30 mph are likely, with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible, especially along the coast and in the hills. With strong winds and astronomical high tides, some coastal flooding is expected, mainly with the morning high tide on Friday. The rain may taper off for a while around midday Friday, but the cold front moves in from the afternoon. Unlike most cold fronts, this one will be moving from southwest to northeast, and the colder air will come in on southwest winds, which normally brings in milder air to our area. Temperatures will rapidly drop once the front moves through, and while they won’t drop 30-40 degrees in an hour, a drop of 20-30 degrees over a couple of hours is certainly possible. A line of showers will accompany the front, and as the colder air moves in, these showers could change to snow before ending in the evening. As temperatures plunge, any surfaces that are still wet will rapidly freeze up during the evening, so keep this in mind if you’re heading out.

Winds could gust to 50 mph or higher on Friday, especially along the coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As the storm pulls away on Christmas Eve, an upper-level low pressure system will move into the Northeast, keeping plenty of clouds around. Winds will remain gusty as the storm system meanders around in Quebec. With much colder air in place, and gusty southwest winds moving across the relatively mild ocean, some ocean-effect snow showers are possible across the South Coast, Cape Cod, and possibly Cape Ann as well. Some accumulations are possible across Cape Cod. High pressure builds in for Christmas Day and Monday with drier and chilly conditions, with winds gradually dying down during the day on Christmas.

Some minor accumulations of snow are possible across Cape Cod and the South Coast this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Thursday night: Rain developing, becoming heavy at times overnight, becoming windy. Temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Friday: Rain tapers off to showers, more rain possible late in the day, possibly changing to snow toward evening, very windy. High 50-57 in the morning, temperatures drop sharply in the afternoon.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, snow showers end in the evening for most, but may continue near the South Coast and Cape Cod, still windy and turning much colder. Low 9-16.

Christmas Eve: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, more snow showers possible near the South Coast and Cape Cod. High 18-25.

Saturday night: Becoming partly cloudy, some lingering snow showers possible across Cape Cod, still breezy. Low 9-16.

Christmas Day: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy again. High 21-28.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 14-21.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 26-33.