Weekly Outlook March 27-April 3, 2017

As we prepare to flip the calendar from March into April, it looks like a week of typical springtime weather in New England is in the forecast. What exactly is “typical springtime weather” in New England? Why, it’s a little bit of everything. Let’s get to the details.

The week starts off chilly and damp as a warm front tries to approach from the south. As rain moves in ahead of it, temperatures will be on the cool side, so we may even see a little freezing rain in the morning well north and west of Boston. If you live there or have to head there in the morning, take things a little on the slow side. The rest of Monday will be fairly wet, as a wave of low pressure rides along that front across the region. We’re not sure that front ever makes it completely across the region, so if you were expecting some milder conditions, you may be out of luck, especially the farther north you head. Another wave of low pressure rides along the front on Tuesday, giving us more rainfall. While a couple of cool and wet days doesn’t sound good, the rain is beneficial. We are still in a drought across the region, and need plenty more rainfall to break it.

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We still need a lot more rain to break the drought. Image provided by National Drought Monitor.

 

Once that wave of low pressure moves by Tuesday night, high pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday. So, we’ll finally get some sunshine again, especially away from the coastline, but it will remain on the cool side, with temperatures staying a little below normal. (Highs should generally be in the lower to middle 50s as we head into early April.) This brings us to Friday and Saturday. Another system will approach from the west very slowly, and likely pass to our south. That means another extended period of precipitation across the region. Notice, we said “precipitation” and not “rain”. That’s because it might not all be just rain. Yup, the dreaded “S-word” is possible again. It’s a little too early to tell how likely it is, but the best chance for any accumulating snow would probably be in the higher terrain. As we head into April, it becomes tougher and tougher to get accumulating snow around here, especially during the daytime. Oh, it’s happened plenty of times, but you need things to be set up just right, and this doesn’t look to be that type of setup right now. Showers may linger around here into Sunday before high pressure starts to build in again. Right now next Monday looks partly cloudy and seasonably cool. If you have to ask why we’ve included Monday, then you’re probably not from around here.

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Opening Day should be a National Holiday. Image provided by Boston.com

Monday: Periods of rain, possibly some freezing rain well north and west of Boston in the morning. High 37-44, except 44-51 south of Boston.

Monday night: Rain tapers off in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy with some patchy drizzle. Low 33-40.

Tuesday: Cloudy with rain and showers redeveloping. High 47-54.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers tapering off and ending. Low 34-41.

Wednesday: Skies may remain cloudy with some lingering drizzle or showers along the coast, becoming partly to mostly sunny well inland. High 45-52, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 42-49, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Becoming cloudy with showers developing, possibly mixing with or changing to snow well north and west of Boston, especially at night. High 40-47.

Saturday: Breezy with rain likely, possibly mixed with snow well north and west of Boston. High 39-46.

Sunday: Cloudy skies with showers possibly lingering in eastern areas into the morning. High 46-53.

Finally, here’s something that we find this interesting, and since this is our blog, we’re going to tell you about it. There’s a tropical disturbance east-northeast of the Bahamas that is being watched for development right now. Yes, it’s March. No, it’s not unheard of, though it is fairly rare. It’s not expected to develop into a tropical system, but could become quite a gale in the North Atlantic this week.

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It’s not very often you see the tropical suite of models run for a system in the Atlantic in March. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Weekly Outlook: March 20-26, 2017

Astronomical spring starts today at 6:29am, and for part of this week, it will actually feel like Spring. Of course, that means part of the week won’t feel like Spring. Sorry to disappoint you, but the parts that don’t feel like Spring won’t feel like Summer. Yup, that means they’ll feel like Winter. It is still March after all.

The week will start off with low pressure continuing to pull away from the area and high pressure building in. That means sunshine, diminishing winds and mild temperatures. A weak front moves through tonight, bringing some clouds with it, and little more than that. Tuesday will have plenty of clouds and some sunny breaks, but it will be a few degrees warmer than Monday. We’re heading in the right direction, right? Wrong. A stronger cold front moves through Tuesday night, with a few snow showers possible. Skies quickly clear out behind it giving us plenty of sunshine on Wednesday, but it will be windy and much colder. Possibly even cold enough to set a few records. Yeah, that’s cold. High pressure builds in later Wednesday into Thursday with sunshine, diminishing winds. We start to warm up on Friday as a warm front approaches, possibly bringing a few showers with it. Whether that warm front actually makes it through or not is still not set in stone.

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Thursday morning will be chilly, with some record lows possible in the Northeast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

This brings us to next weekend. This is where things get complicated. If the warm front moves through, Temperatures on Saturday could spike into the 60s in many areas, especially if we get any sunshine. If the front doesn’t come through, we might stay in the 40s all day. For now, we’ll stay right in the middle, with upper 40s to middle 50s, but please realize that temperatures could be considerably warmer or colder than what we are forecasting at the moment. Regardless of whether the warm front moves through, a cold front will drop southward across the region later on Saturday, bringing in some showers and cooler conditions, especially if we get into the warm air. That front will stall out south of New England on Sunday while a wave of low pressure moves along it. Exactly how quickly that wave moves along the front and how far south the front stalls are key to the forecast. Right now, it looks to be a little too far south and moving a little too quickly, which means that most of the precipitation moves out before the colder air settles in. That means the rain may end as some snow on Sunday, with only a little accumulation in some spots. However, there are some models that have the front stall a little closer to the South Coast, and the wave moves through a little slower. The result is a better chance of some accumulating snow later Sunday into Monday, and for at least one model, a lot more accumulating snow. For now, we’re leaning towards the solution with little to no snow, but the potential is there for more snow across the area. If anything does materialize, we’ll let you know later in the week. For now, don’t worry about changing any plans, but just keep an eye on the forecast on the off-chance that this does become a problem.

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A few models are showing the potential for highs in the 60s on Saturday. Not all of them show this though. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with diminishing winds. Clouds start to move in late in the day. High 44-51.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 47-54.

Tuesday night: Slight chance for a rain or snow shower, then clearing skies and windy. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 30-37.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, still breezy and cold. High 29-36.

Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy, breezy, and milder with a chance of showers. High 40-47.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for a few showers. High 48-55.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for some snow or rain showers, especially along the South Coast. High 34-41.

March Madness Has Arrived

It’s time for March Madness once again, and we’re not talking about the NCAA Basketball Tournament. No, this time we’re talking about the relentless hype ahead of a March snowstorm. You’d think that we’ve never had a big storm around here in March before with the way the media is reacting. It’s almost as if everyone has forgotten about the storms in 199319972007, and 2013, never mind the ones we’ve had in April (or May).

Well, enough about that, let’s get right to the details of the storm. Low pressure is moving across the Ohio Valley today while a second area of low pressure is starting to develop off the Southeast coast. As the Ohio Valley system weakens tonight, it will transfer its energy to the coastal storm, and then the fun really begins.

The low will move up the coastline tonight into Tuesday and rapidly strengthen. Snow will break out across the region around daybreak Tuesday, and will fall heavy at times from mid-morning into the evening. Snowfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour seem likely. The snow will be accompanied by winds gusting to 40-50 mph at times, even higher near the coast, and especially across Cape Cod. This may create blizzard conditions at times, with significant blowing and drifting snow expected. We’d recommend that you stay off the roads, as travel will be dangerous at best during the daytime hours. The good news is that the storm will be moving relatively quickly, so the snow will taper off in the evening, and end at night.

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Strong winds will accompany the storm on Tuesday across much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The big wildcard at this point is the exact track of the storm. Some of the models are trying to indicate that the storm will move across southeastern Massachusetts late in the day, while others keep the storm near or just east of Cape Cod. The farther the storm tracks to the west, the more likely a change to sleet and/or rain becomes across southeastern Mass, possibly as far inland as the I-95 corridor. Obviously, that will have a big impact on snowfall totals.

So, how much snow are we looking at? Well, many in the media have been throwing out amounts like 1-2 feet or some other ridiculous numbers. The fact is, with a storm moving as quickly as this one is (it’s only going to snow for about 12-15 hours), it’s tough to get amounts that high. Our forecast is as follows:

Cape Cod: 3-6″ on the Outer Cape and Islands, 5-10″ closer to the Canal

SE Mass/RI: 6-10″ from I-95 south and eastward, 10-16″ north and west of there.

The remainder of Central & Eastern Mass/N RI/Southern NH/southern ME: 12-18″, with isolated heavier amounts.

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GFS model forecast for snowfall through Wednesday evening. This model most closely matches our thinking for snowfall right now. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Even though the snow will be winding down Tuesday night, Wednesday won’t be a great day for cleanup. With an upper-level low moving across the region, and the storm itself getting cranked up in Atlantic Canada, it’ll be cloudy, windy, and cold, with scattered snow showers. While there shouldn’t be much additional accumulation. Another inch or two is possible in a few spots.

 

Weekly Outlook: March 13-19, 2017

Spring is almost here. Just keep reminding yourself of that. Red Sox Opening Day is 3 weeks from today. Marathon Monday is 5 weeks from today. Before you know it, we’ll be walking around in shorts and enjoying warm weather. Got those thoughts in your head now? Good, because this week will feel like the middle of winter. In case you haven’t heard and thanks to the relentless TV and internet hype, everyone has heard, the “Storm of the Century of the Week” is going to paralyze the region for the next 6 weeks. OK, we got caught up in the hype for a second. Seriously though, we’ve got ourselves a significant snowstorm heading our way for Tuesday.

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GFS model forecast for the progression of the storm from Monday evening through Wednesday evening. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

The week starts off with the proverbial “calm before the storm” on Monday, as high pressure keeps us dry and chilly. Low pressure will be moving across the Ohio Valley while a second area of low pressure starts to take shape off the Southeast coast. As the Ohio Valley system weakens, it will transfer its energy to the coastal storm, and then things really start to happen.

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It’s gonna blow on Tuesday. The wind that is. NAM model forecast for wind gusts Tuesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The low will move up the coastline Monday night into Tuesday and rapidly strengthen. Snow will break out across the region towards daybreak Tuesday, and will fall heavy at times from Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening. When we say heavy, we mean HEAVY, as in 2-3 inches per hour at times. The snow will be accompanied by winds gusting to 40-50 mph at times, even higher near the coast, and especially across Cape Cod. This may create blizzard conditions at times. If you’ve got plans for Tuesday, either get there by daybreak, or wait until evening to get there, because driving won’t be fun during the daytime hours, and could be quite hazardous. The good news is that the storm will be moving relatively quickly, so the snow will taper off in the evening, and end at night. The other potential good news is that the snow will likely change to rain for a time across Cape Cod. That changeover could make it into southeastern Massachusetts as well, but how far inland is still a big question. Obviously, that will have a big impact on snowfall totals.

So, how much snow are we looking at? You’ve probably heard the apocalyptic forecasts out there of 1-2 feet, or 15-30 inches, or some other crazy ranges. The fact is, with a storm moving as quickly as this one is (it’s only going to snow for about 12-15 hours), it’s tough to get amounts that high. Our preliminary numbers are:

Cape Cod: 3-6″ on the Outer Cape and Islands, 5-10″ closer to the Canal
SE Mass: 6-12″ where it mixes with rain, 10-16″ where it doesn’t.
Southern NH/ME: 10-16″
Eastern/Central Mass: 12-18″, with some isolated heavier amounts.

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GFS model forecast for snowfall through Wednesday evening, This model most closely matches our thinking for snowfall right now. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Things will slowly improve on Wednesday, but with an upper-level low moving across the region, we can expect some occasional snow showers, and winds will remain quite gusty as the storm gets cranked up over Atlantic Canada. High pressure starts to build in on Thursday, but it will likely be another blustery and cold day. For the holiday on Friday (it is Evacuation Day after all), it’ll be another sunny and chilly day, but winds will start to diminish as high pressure continues to build into the region. Clouds return on Saturday, then a weak cold front moves through Saturday night, bringing some snow showers in. An upper-level low may hang around into Sunday, possibly producing more snow showers.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine to start, clouds increase during the afternoon. High 26-33.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy, snow developing towards daybreak. Low 16-23.

Tuesday: Hazy, hot and humid. Windy with snow, heavy at times. High 26-33, except 33-40 across Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Snow tapers off and ends, winds gradually diminish. Low 15-22.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a few snow showers possible. High 24-31.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, still breezy. High 23-30.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 28-35.

Saturday: Sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. Chance for light snow or snow showers at night. High 30-37.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a few snow showers possible. High 31-38.

We will have an update on the storm Monday afternoon. Hopefully, things will be a little clearer by then. Remember, spring is just around the corner. If you keep telling yourself that, you might even start to believe it.

 

Welcome Back Winter

It seems as though we went through this last week, but once again, after a taste of early Spring, Mother Nature is about to remind us that March can still bring plenty of wintry weather to the area.

Today is the transition day, as strong winds usher much colder air into the region behind a cold front that crossed the region late Wednesday night. While temperatures are still in the 40s, things are about to change, and most of you probably won’t like it. That cold front will stall out south of New England today, and low pressure will ride along it across the Mid-Atlantic states, passing south of us on Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build in north of New England, bringing plenty of cold air with it. Let’s see now, cold air moving in from the north and moisture moving in from the south. What happens when you combine those? That’s right, you get SNOW! Luckily, we’re not looking at a lot of snow this time. Let’s get to the details:

Snow should start to develop early in the morning, possibly even starting as a little rain across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. The snow may fall at a pretty good clip during the morning hours, tapering off and ending during the afternoon.Since we’re into mid-March, the sun angle is roughly the same as the end of September. In other words, fairly strong. So, once we get past sunrise, even though it’ll be cloudy, the snow will have a tougher time sticking to paved surfaces. That’s the good news. The bad news is that a lot of the snow will fall before then, so the roads may not be that pretty for the morning commute.

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Forecast from the NAM model for the progression of Friday’s storm. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

OK, so the snow ends in the afternoon and we’re done right? As noted college football analyst Lee Corso used to say “Not so fast my friend”. As the storm moves into the Gulf of Maine, a piece of energy, called a Norlun trough (Explained here by Matt Noyes), may produce some additional light snow from the North Shore up into southern New Hampshire and south coastal Maine through the evening hours. It won’t amount to much, but could be just enough to screw up the evening commute well north of Boston.

So, how much snow are we looking at? North of the Mass Pike, probably less than an inch, if any snow falls at all. From the North Shore into Boston and it’s immediate southern and western suburbs, probably 1-2 inches. For the South Coast, roughly south of Route 44, 2-4 inches should do it, with a little more possible across parts of the Cape and Islands.

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The High Resolution NAM model most closely matches our thinking with regards to snowfall on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

All in all, not a big deal, especially by New England standards. What will be a big deal is the cold air behind the storm. Similar to last Saturday, this Saturday will be quite chilly, especially with fresh snowcover. High temperatures may struggle to get into the lower 20s, but wind chills will be in the single numbers and below zero. So, if you’re heading outside, make sure you bundle up. It’ll feel more like January than March.

Finally, we’re aware of the uncontrolled hype on the Internet (and TV) about a potentially major snowstorm on Tuesday. Right now, it’s a potential storm and nothing else. We’ll certainly keep our eyes on it, and if a threat does materialize, we’ll let you know well in advance. For now though, it’s nothing more than a figment of the computer models’ imaginations. We don’t participate in hype or speculation here at StormHQ, so we’re going to leave it at that.

Weekly Outlook: March 6-12, 2017

The past few days have certainly been a reality check, haven’t they? It’s been cold, even by March standards. Don’t worry, the cold weather will be replaced by mild conditions for the next few days, especially at mid-week. But wait, what’s that lurking for the end of the week? Not one, but two potential chances at snow?  Remember, it is still March.

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It’s rather chilly out there early this morning with wind chills in the single numbers. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The week starts off with high pressure moving offshore, giving us sunshine and a chilly start, but temperatures will rebound nicely in the afternoon. Clouds will start to move in late in the day as a warm front starts to approach the region. With clouds in place tonight, it won’t be as chilly as the last few nights. Showers will move in Tuesday afternoon, and continue into Tuesday night, ending Wednesday morning when a cold front crosses the region. Despite the front, Wednesday will still be mild, with sunshine developing in the afternoon.High pressure builds back in on Thursday with windy and colder conditions, setting the stage for Friday and the weekend.

First, we start with Friday. Low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes and heads eastward, passing south of the region. The latest indications are that it may pass too far south to have too much of an impact on us, but we’ve still got plenty of time for the exact track to be worked out. Regardless, we’re not looking at a major storm here, as it will be moving relatively quickly, and not have a lot of moisture to work with. However, a few inches of snow would be just enough to screw up the Friday afternoon commute. Then again, three snowflakes is enough to screw up the Friday afternoon commute. High pressure builds in behind the system, but another one quickly follows from the Plains states. This one looks to impact the region late Saturday night into Sunday. Unlike the first one, it will be a little stronger, a little slower, and have a little more moisture to work with. It will also be a little farther to the south, increasing the chances that it stays to the south and has even less of an impact on parts of the region. However, that also means it could have more of an impact the farther south you go. Right now, the models are showing this storm with the potential to be a significant storm system….for the Mid-Atlantic states. Since there’s still plenty of uncertainty with both of these storms, but especially the second one, we’ll just have to keep an eye on them, and update you during the week if it looks like either of them could cause us some problems.

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One model wants to bury us with snow on Sunday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
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Another model says we miss the storm completely and it hits Virginia and North Carolina instead. Image provided by Pivotal Weather

 

Monday: A sunny and chilly start, then clouds start to filter in during the afternoon. High 37-44.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 24-31.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon.High 44-51.

Tuesday night: Scattered showers. Low 39-46 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Showers ending in the morning, some sunshine develops in the afternoon. Becoming breezy. High 52-59.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 35-42.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of light snow. High 36-43.

Saturday: Morning sunshine, then clouds return. Snow possible at night. High 24-31.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. High 24-31.

Wait, there might be another strong storm towards the middle of next week too? We’ll worry about that one next week.

In Like a Lion…

The old saying is that March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. We’ll see about how it goes out, but it certainly looks like it’s going to come in like a lion this year, but not in the usual way.

We’ve got some unseasonably mild air already in place, but it’s going to get even warmer as a warm front moves across the region tonight. It’ll be accompanied by some showers, and maybe even a rumble of thunder when it moves through. Some of the rain overnight may be locally heavy, but since most of you will be sleeping when it comes through, you won’t even notice. Also, with the warm front coming through, we’ll have our low temperatures this evening instead of in the morning, as temperatures will slowly rise overnight.

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Plenty of record highs are expected across the Northeast on Wednesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

This brings us to Wednesday. Once that warm front moves across the area, even warmer air will flood into the region, with highs again soaring well into the 60s. The only limiting factor for tomorrow will be cloud cover, which there will likely be plenty of. If we can get some breaks of sunshine, it wouldn’t be a surprise if temperatures made a run at 70 in spots.

Warm temperatures aren’t the only story for Wednesday though. A strong cold front will be approaching from the west. While this front will bring an end to our warmth Thursday morning, it’s what happens ahead of it that is a bigger concern.

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A slight risk for severe weather exists across parts of southwestern New England on Wednesday, with a marginal risk for most of the remainder of Southern New England. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

 

As is usually the case during the warmer months, with a warm and relatively humid airmass in place, the atmosphere will become unstable. Add in some lift ahead of the front and you get showers and thunderstorms. The bigger the clash in airmasses, but stronger the storms. That’s what will happen tomorrow. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours and may even continue into the nighttime ahead of the front. Some of the storms could become quite strong, with heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and damaging winds. There is even the chance for an isolated tornado. Just last week, a tornado touched down in Goshen and Conway, Massachusetts – the first confirmed tornado ever during the month of February in the Commonwealth.

 

New England isn’t the only place where severe weather is expected though. In fact, what’s expected up here is minor compared to the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. As that cold front moves into those areas later today into early Wednesday, widespread severe weather is expected to develop. Large hail, heavy downpours, damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected. This is more typical of April than the last day of February.

After this front moves offshore, things quiet down a bit, and we get back into weather that is more typical of early March, especially here in the Northeast. We do need to keep an eye on Friday though. An Alberta Clipper will be diving southeastward from the Great Lakes. It will pass south of New England during the day on Friday and into Friday morning. While the majority of the forecast models keep the system far enough south of have little to no impact on us, not all of them do. So, there is the chance for some light snow, especially south of the Mass Pike, on Friday. We’ll have more on this later in the week if the threat materializes.

Weekly Outlook: February 27-March 5, 2017

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Please remain seated until the ride has come to a complete stop. Image provided by Coastergallery.com

 

Sure, it felt warm enough to go to an amusement park at the end of last week, and it will again in a few days. But, much like the rollercoaster above, things will go downhill too.

The week starts off with us going up the incline, as temperatures slowly rise over the next few days. While today will be sunny, thanks to high pressure, clouds will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday as a storm system approaches from the west. A few showers are possible Tuesday morning, but there’s a better chance Tuesday night into Wednesday as a warm front crosses the region. A cold front moves through Thursday morning, which means we start the downhill part of the ride at that point. This is where some of you will start screaming, because even though the rain will end and the sun will return, it will be windy and colder, with temperatures dropping all day. But wait, the thrills don’t end there! An Alberta Clipper comes through the region on Friday, bringing us some light snow (some of you are probably screaming again right now). This isn’t set in stone just yet, as some models have the storm staying just to our south, so we’ll need to keep an eye on this as the week goes on. High pressure builds in for the weekend, with chilly temperatures expected on Saturday. We start the next uphill climb on Sunday as temperatures start to head back up once again.

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Record highs again on Wednesday? Certainly looks like a possibility. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy. High 48-55.

Monday night: Increasing clouds, chance for a few showers towards daybreak. Low 30-37.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, a few showers are possible in the morning. High 49-56.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers likely. Low 39-46.

Wednesday: Breezy with mild with showers likely, maybe even a thunderstorm. High 58-65.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 45-52 early, then temperatures drop throughout the day.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow. High 31-38.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy. High 26-33.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 42-49.

Record Highs, Blizzard Conditions, and Severe Weather – February in the Nation’s Midsection

“In the Spring, I have counted 136 different kinds of weather inside of 24 hours.” – Mark Twain

It’s not quite spring yet, but this quote is still appropriate. Much of the nation’s midsection has been enjoying temperatures more typical of April than February for the past week, with a few hundred record high temperatures broken. That is about to change, as Mother Nature will remind the region that is still February.

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Numerous record highs are expected across the Plains and Midwest again today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Of course, they will still have one more warm day today, with highs well into the 60s and 70s likely setting more records. However, a cold front will sweep across the region, bringing an end to the record heat, and setting the stage for a snowstorm.

The low pressure system that brought more rain to California over the past couple of days will head eastward, bringing some snow into the Rockies today. As that system moves into the Plains on Thursday it will start to strengthen, drawing moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico while cold air flows southward on the backside of the storm into the Northern Plains. Where these airmasses meet, snow will develop across the Central Plains states. The snow will be accompanied by winds of 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph or more at times, resulting in near-blizzard conditions across portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, southeastern Wyoming, and eastern Colorado on Thursday.

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More than a foot of snow may fall in a swath from the Plains into the Upper Midwest. A lot of these same places are going to be in the 60s and 70s today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

As the system heads eastward, snow will move into portions of the Mississippi Valley and the Upper Midwest on Friday. The heaviest snow looks to stay just south of the Twin Cities, but even there, moderate to heavy snow is likely. By the time the storm moves out on Saturday, a foot or more of snow is possible in a swath from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes.

Snow isn’t the only threat from this system. As the storm moves eastward, record warmth will remain in place across the Midwest. With warm, moist air in place and a strong cold front approaching from the West, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Friday. Some of the stronger storms that form may contain damaging winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes.

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The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted the Midwest as an area to watch for severe weather on Friday. Image provided by NOAA.

The system will continue to move eastward, bringing some rain to the East Coast on Saturday, which may cause problems for hockey fans in the Steel City. The next NHL Stadium Series game (Ed – Enough with the outdoor games already. It jumped the shark a long time ago), is scheduled for Saturday at 8pm between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers. The daytime hours will likely be mild with rain, but the rain may change to snow late in the day as temperatures tumble. Either way, it won’t be a pleasant night for fans to be sitting in the stands at Heinz Field. Here at Storm HQ, we despise the Flyers, so we hope their fans not only have to sit through the weather, but watch their team get thumped too.

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That’s former UMass-Lowell RiverHawk (and StormHQ favorite) Scott Wilson hoisting the Stanley Cup last June. Image provided by Toronto Star.

Once it gets past Pittsburgh, that front will head eastward, bringing some rain to us here in New England. It probably won’t be a lot of rain, but temperatures will be in the 50s and possibly 60s ahead of the front on Saturday. Once the front comes through, Sunday will be windy and colder.

Weekly Outlook: February 20-26, 2017

After a couple of warm days, those rapid-fire snowstorms sure seem like they happened awhile ago, right? OK, so you still can’t see your lawn, but the good news is, you probably will within a few days. That’s right, the warm weather will continue and there’s no snow in the picture.

spring-training
Another sure sign that spring is just around the corner. Before you know it, you’ll see pictures of David Price throwing at Fenway, not Fenway South. Image provided by Redsox.com

 

The week starts off with high pressure keeping us dry for Monday and Tuesday. Monday will be cooler than the weekend was, but temperatures will still be right around or maybe a little above where they should be for mid-to-late February. We’ll start to warm up on Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore, but a weak system may bring in some showers Tuesday night. Then it turns warmer again. Wednesday should see highs in the 50s, and we may even make a run at 60 on Thursday, with some record highs possible. A weak cold front moves through late Thursday, but behind it, temperatures should remain quite mild for Friday and Saturday, though Saturday is also looking wet, as a storm system moves into the Great Lakes. That storm drags a cold front through Saturday night, and Sunday will be windy and colder. Of course, when we say “colder”, we mean,”right about where we should be in late February.”

ndfd_record_hi_neng_4
Thursday is looking quite mild with some record highs possible. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 35-42.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Morning sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with scattered showers. Evening low 28-35, then temperatures rise overnight.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks. High 47-54.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine. High 54-61.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. Showers likely at night. High 48-55.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. High 50-57.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy, and cooler. High 38-45.

Just because this week is going to be warm, doesn’t mean that winter is over. We’ve had some sizable snowstorms around here in March and April, and even on rare occasions into May. There are some indications that it may turn cooler again as we head into early March.

(Did we mention that Red Sox Opening Day is 6 weeks from today?)