Thanksgiving week has arrived, which means that we’re already getting to the tail end of 2017. Before you know it, we’ll be talking about snowstorms. No, we’re not talking about them yet, but soon, we will be. This is New England after all.

For the most part, we’re looking at a fairly benign pattern this week. We start off with high pressure in control for Monday and Tuesday, with sunshine and cool temperatures. On Wednesday, a cold front will approach from the west while a coastal storm passes offshore. The result will be some rain showers, especially along the coastline. High pressure builds back in on Thanksgiving with sunshine returning, making for some great weather for high school football and traveling to see family. High pressure remains in control on Friday, keeping the dry and cool weather in place, so dress properly if you’re heading out for the “Doorbuster” sales on Black Friday. By Saturday, a strong low pressure system will pass well to our north and west, across southeastern Canada. This will result in a bit of warmup, but also some rain showers. The system drags a strong cold front across the region Saturday night, with breezy and colder conditions expected on Sunday. A few rain or snow showers are possible with that frontal passage on Sunday.

Monday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, slight chance for a morning snow flurry, breezy. High 36-43.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some high clouds at times, still breezy. High 50-57.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with winds diminishing overnight. Low 43-50 in the evening, then temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, especially along the coast. High 48-55 early, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Thanksgiving: Partly to mostly sunny. High 37-44.

Friday: Sunshine dominates again. High 41-48.

Saturday: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy with some showers possible. High 47-54.

Sunday: Chance for a rain or snow shower early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 38-45.

Well, now that it is actually feeling like November outside, we’ve got a more sobering thought for you. Christmas is six weeks from today. Six weeks. You know what that means, right? Yup, we’ll be talking about that dreaded “s-word” soon. It doesn’t look like we’ll worry about it for most of this week, but rest assured, it’s coming.

As for this week, the week will start off with, to quote a friend of the blog, “not exactly a chamber of commerce day.” A weak system passes offshore today, close enough to spread some showers in, mainly from Boston southward, during the afternoon. We suppose there could be a few wet flakes mixed in, but generally, just some light rain is expected. High pressure builds in after that with dry and cool conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will start to moderate on Thursday ahead of a storm system. However, with the milder conditions will come some more rainfall. The rain ends during the afternoon as a cold front moves through. This sets up another dry and but cold day on Friday.

Next weekend is where things get interesting. Another storm system will move into the Great Lakes and eventually into southeastern Canada. This will give us some precipitation Saturday into early Sunday. The precipitation may not be entirely plain rain. Remember, we’re going to have a very cold airmass in place on Friday. Warmer air will certainly move in aloft, but as it typically the case in the fall/winter, it may struggle to move in at the surface, especially inland. So, what does that mean? For the coastal plain, we’re looking at just rain. For places farther inland, especially north and west of 495, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the precipitation start as some wet snow, before a changeover to rain, possibly with a period of sleet or freezing rain in between. This is all assuming that the precipitation moves in during the morning. If it holds off until afternoon, then the chance for wintry precipitation diminishes considerably. All in all, this doesn’t look like a big deal, but since it could be the first potential wintry event of the season, we certainly need to keep our eyes on it. The other big question is the temperatures. How warm will we get on Saturday? Across inland areas, depending on which model you believe, we could stay in the upper 30s to middle 40s, or we could soar well into the 50s. Right now, based on what we’ve seen in the past, we’re going to lean towards the cooler scenario inland, but obviously that could change. No matter what happens, a cold front pushes through early Sunday, with clearing and colder conditions expected once again.

Monday: Cloudy with scattered showers developing, mainly along the coast and south of Boston. High 38-45, except 46-53 across southeastern Mass and Cape Cod.

Monday night: Showers taper off, but some drizzle and/or a few flurries may persist. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 39-46.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Sunshine, dimmed by some high clouds during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Thursday: Showers likely in the morning, clearing  and becoming breezy late in the day. High 49-56.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Clouds start to filter in during the afternoon. High 40-47.

Saturday: Rain likely, possibly starting as a wintry mix well inland. Becoming breezy, especially across Cape Cod.  High 41-48 north and west of I-495, 49-56 south and east.

Sunday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 39-46.

Of course, next week is Thanksgiving, and everyone wants to know what the weather will be live for the drive to see family. At least one model (the GFS) has a storm come through on Wednesday, with some snow, especially north and west of Boston. Other models have drier conditions. We’ll go into that forecast in more detail in next week’s outlook.

 

You’ve got one more day to enjoy the unseasonably warm weather, then changes are certainly on the way. By the end of the week, some bigger changes are coming.

The week starts off on a mild note, as most of the ones this fall have, but we’ll have plenty of clouds in place as a cold front comes marching in from the west. This front produced severe weather across much of the Midwest yesterday, and while we’re not expecting severe weather here, we are expecting some locally heavy showers from late morning into the evening, and a rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out. The showers end in the evening as a strong cold front crosses the region. That front will stall out south of New England for mid-week, and a couple of waves of low pressure will ride along it. They should be too far to the south to spread much, if any precipitation into the region, but they should keep the clouds in place. At the same time, high pressure will build into Northern New England, with more seasonable temperatures expected. This will keep us dry and cool into the middle portion of the week.

By Thursday, we start to prepare for the next set of changes. A strong cold front will cross the region Thursday night, producing a few showers across the region. There’s even a chance that some of those showers could have some snowflakes mixed in. (Remember – it is early November) Behind that front, colder air will come pouring into the region on Friday on gusty northwest winds. A few more snow showers are possible as well. Winds start to die down on Saturday, but despite the sunshine, temperatures will be well below normal. In fact much of the region may not even reach 40 degrees for a high. The next system heads towards the area on Sunday, with clouds streaming in followed by showers late in the day. Temperatures will start to moderate, so we’ll be looking at mainly rain showers.

Monday: Cloudy and mild with showers developing, possibly even a thunderstorm. High 62-69.

Monday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine. High 46-53.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 45-52.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a rain or snow shower at night. High 48-55.

Friday: Partly sunny and windy. High 41-48 early, temperatures may drop in the afternoon.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Clouds start to stream back in late in the day and at night. High 37-44.

Sunday: Becoming clouds with showers developing late in the day. High 42-49.

If were able to sleep early this morning, then you missed quite a wild night weather-wise. Don’t worry, a repeat isn’t on the horizon.

The storm system that brought heavy rain and strong winds to the region overnight will head up into southeastern Canada today, but we’ll still feel it’s impact. Depending on how early you read this, it may still be raining, but that should end during the morning hours. While we won’t have winds gusting to hurricane force this afternoon like we did this morning, westerly winds behind the storm will still be fairly strong. Skies should clear out late today as high pressure starts to build in. This will bring us sunshine for Tuesday, but it will still remain breezy. Wednesday will start sunny, but clouds start to move in during the afternoon. After that, we jump on the roller coaster.

A warm front will cross the region on Thursday, bringing some showers with it.  The warm front will extend southeastward from a storm moving across the Great Lakes. This will result in a warm day on Friday as the storm passes to our north. However, it will drag a cold front across the region, which may produce a few more showers. High pressure starts to build in from the north on Saturday, bringing some cooler weather to the area. Clouds quickly return on Saturday as a weak system moves out of the Ohio Valley towards the area. This will bring more showers in for Saturday night and Sunday. Unlike the last storm, it will be much cooler this time around. In fact, many places may struggle to reach 50 for highs on Sunday (Saturday too, for that matter). Add in the clouds and rain, and it may feel like a miserable day to be outside for any reason. Believe it or not, we could even see some wet snowflakes mix in as the rain moves in early Sunday morning, mainly across southern New Hampshire.

Monday: Any lingering showers early this morning, then sunshine develops in the afternoon. Winds slowly diminish as well. High 60-67 early, dropping in the afternoon.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear, still breezy. Low 40-47.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy again. High 52-59

Tuesday night: High clouds start streaming into the region with winds finally diminishing. Low 34-41.

Wednesday: Some filtered sunshine early, then clouds thicken up in the afternoon. High 50-57.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. High 57-64.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for a few showers, especially late in the day. High 63-70.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, clouds come back at night though. High 48-55.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely, possibly mixed with a little wet snow in southern New Hampshire early in the day. High 47-54.

“Change. Now it’s time for change.
Nothing stays the same. Now it’s time for change.”

Motley Crue’s lyrics from 1989 are certainly an appropriate description of this week’s forecast. Changes are certainly on the way, but you’ll still have at least one more day to enjoy our extended summer.

The week starts off with another warm day thanks to high pressure off the East Coast. If you watched last night’s Pats game in “Fogs-boro”, then you know that humidity levels are certainly higher now as well, thanks to a southerly flow of air. By Tuesday, the changes really start to settle in. An upper-level trough of low pressure settles into the Great Lakes, with a strong storm system at the surface as well. A frontal system extended well ahead of this storm will march towards the East Coast. With a warm, moist, southerly flow ahead of the front, we can expect some showers and gusty winds on Tuesday. Tuesday night into early Wednesday could be quite interesting as the front gets closer. Strong winds, locally heavy downpours, and even some thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front Tuesday night. Some wind gusts of 30-50 mph are possible, while rainfall totals of 1-2 inches (or more) expected for parts of the region. The front pushes offshore on Wednesday, with the showers gradually ending and cooler air settling in behind it.

The cooler air really starts to settle in on Thursday as the upper-level low moves overhead. As that happens, we can expect clouds to develop, along with some pop up showers during the afternoon. Across some of the higher elevations of Northern New England (places like Mt. Washington), some wet snow may fall with these showers. High pressure builds in for Friday and at least early Saturday. After that, things start to get complicated. Another storm system will be moving into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough of low pressure moves into the region. At the same time, low pressure may try to take shape off the East Coast and head northward. While neither of these systems look that potent for now, they could consolidate into a fairly strong storm once they move past New England early next week. Before that, it looks like they’ll bring us some rain on Sunday, possibly as early as Saturday night. The rain may continue into next Monday, and could be heavy. Windy and much cooler conditions are possible early next week behind the system, but we’ll worry about that in next week’s outlook.

 

Monday: Fog early, then any sunshine disappears behind thickening clouds. High 66-73.

Monday night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with some showers possible late at night. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Windy and mild with some showers likely. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Windy with periods of rain, possibly some thunderstorms. Low 61-68.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers and winds gradually diminishing. High 63-70.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance for some afternoon showers. High 57-64.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny.  High 56-63.

Saturday: A sunny start, then clouds return. Some showers are possible at night. High 60-67.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with more showers possible. High 58-65.

Summer in October continued on Sunday, but a cold front will bring cooler conditions in today. So, are we finally into fall weather for good? To borrow a phrase from college football analyst Lee Corso – “Not so fast my friend.”

We’ll start the week off with high pressure building in, bringing cooler conditions to the region. In fact, temperatures may be below normal today. Some locations could even see some frost Tuesday morning. Don’t be alarmed, it is October, and this does frequently occur at this time of year. Tuesday looks to be on the cool side as well. After that? The warmth returns. High pressure slides offshore, and we warm right back up with dry conditions for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

It does look like the warm weather party will come to a crashing halt early next week, with a pattern change becoming more and more likely. A flip to below normal temperatures and more precipitation looks to be in the offing. In fact, some places could even see their first flakes of the season late this month. (Yeah, we just said that. Deal with it.) We’ll get into more detail on this in next week’s outlook. For now, enjoy the warm weather.

Monday: Some lingering showers across Cape Cod and SE Mass early in the day, otherwise skies will gradually clear from northwest to southeast. High 54-61.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear and chilly with some patchy frost. Low 35-42, but some of the normally colder locations could drop close to 30.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 51-58.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 42-49.

Wednesday: Sun, sun, and more sun. High 64-71.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 68-75.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 62-69.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 69-76.

Sunday:  A mix of sun and clouds. High 72-79.

Finally, we will discuss former Hurricane Ophelia. As of early Monday morning, Ophelia has transitioned into a post-tropical storm. In other words, it’s just another low pressure system now, albeit a strong one. It’s likely going to cross Ireland and the northern UK over the next day or two. Strong winds and heavy rain are expected. While some of the media are playing the hype game, the truth is, they get storms like this all the time in the fall, winter, and spring, many of which are even stronger. The difference this time is that the storm has tropical origins, so it will likely bring in more rain than your typical North Atlantic storm moving into the UK. It’s not rare, and it’s not unusual. Plenty of former tropical cyclones have become post-tropical and crossed the Atlantic, impacting the UK in the past.

Who likes rain, especially heavy rain? Alright, we know that most of you don’t, but we do need some rain around here, as drought conditions are slowly starting to emerge again. However, that’s not the reason why a lot of you are hoping for rain today. Heavy rain means a rainout for the Red Sox, and thus the chance that Chris Sale pitches Game 4 instead of Rick Porcello.

Well, it looks like you’ll get your wish, but be careful what you wish for. The remains of Hurricane Nate will pass north and west of the region today, bringing us some rain and maybe a few thunderstorms, The heaviest rain will stay to our north and west, but we’ll still get a good amount of rain today, especially during the morning and again during the late afternoon and evening. There will likely be a lull around midday, but probably not enough for the Red Sox to squeeze the game in. Sure, they’ll probably open the gates and let everyone in to buy hot dogs, beer, and souvenirs for a few hours, then postpone the game until Tuesday. (Anything to make a buck!)

Tuesday will be about as perfect as an October day can be in New England. High pressure brings plenty of sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will move through late in the day, but it’ll be starved for moisture, so other than a few clouds and a wind shift, you probably won’t notice when the front moves through. You will notice it the next day when temperatures are 15-20 degrees colder and more clouds move in. Another system will slowly make its way eastward from the Midwest, bringing us some showers Wednesday night and early Thursday, but the bulk of the rainfall will likely stay to our south and west as high pressure tries to build in from the north. Yet another weak system comes through on Friday with a few more showers possible.

That brings us to the weekend. After a week with several days featuring clouds and/or rain, what would you expect to happen? Of course, we’re going to have high pressure return with sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures once again. Don’t expect every weekend to be like this through the fall, but certainly enjoy them while they’re here. Before you know it, it’ll be cold and we’ll be talking about the dreaded s-word. For the record, longer-range models right now show warm weather again the following weekend.

Monday: Breezy and humid with periods of rain and showers, maybe a thunderstorm or two as well. High 69-76.

Monday night: Showers taper off in the evening, followed by partial clearing overnight. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny and warm. High 75-82.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Wednesday: Some early sun, then clouds thicken up. Showers develop at night. Much cooler, high 61-68.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or two early in the day. High 58-65.

Friday: More clouds than sun with a chance for a few showers. High 62-69.

Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77.

Sunday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, breezy, and warm. High 71-78.

One final note to show you how abnormal the warmth and humidity are. At the time this blog post was written (4am Monday), the temperature and dewpoint at the Storm HQ World Headquarters in the City of Champions (that’s Brockton, MA for those who don’t know) were both 70 degrees. The normal low temperature for today is 42 degrees. The normal high temperature is only 64!

October has arrived, and temperatures should be starting to get cooler. September certainly ended on a cool note and the first day of October was on the cool side as well. However, we’re going to warm back up this week, so the cool shot was short-lived.

High pressure will be in control of the region’s weather for the next few days. Although the week will start off cool, a warming trend is expected as high pressure moves offshore. A cold front will approach the region on Thursday. The front will take its time moving through the region, but it also won’t have a lot of moisture to work with. As a result, Thursday will be another warm day, but only a chance for a few showers or maybe even a thunderstorm. The question is: how many people will notice the weather on Thursday with Red Sox/Astros Game 1 at 4pm, the Bruins season opener at the Garden against Nashville at 7pm, and the Patriots in Tampa at 8:25pm? Friday will likely be another mild day before the front finally pushes through, with cooler conditions settling in behind it for Friday night.

Once that front moves through, it is going to stall out south of New England. How far south it stalls will play a big role in determining Saturday’s weather, as a couple of waves of low pressure will likely ride along that front. If it stalls close to the south coast, Saturday could be cool and rather wet. If it stalls out farther to the south, Saturday may see some sunshine develop. It looks like the front moves back northward as a warm front on Sunday, with some rainfall likely. How quickly it comes back will determine our temperatures (and to a lesser extent our weather) on Sunday. If it takes its time coming through, temperatures could stay in the 50s and lower 60s all day with rain likely. If it comes through quickly, we could jump into the 70s with just some showers or even a thunderstorm. Once it does come through, it looks like the first part of next week will be warm but probably also wet. It also looks like a cooler pattern may try to develop towards the latter half of next week as well. Whether this is temporary or the true start of fall remains to be seen.

 

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 64-71.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 44-51, except some of the normally cooler locations could drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 64-71.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, and warm. High 73-80.

Thursday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers. High 75-82.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.

Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy, chance for a few showers. High 62-69.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with more showers possible. High 65-72.

 

While our weather is quiet, a much different story is expected from the Plains into the Rockies. A storm system will produce strong to severe thunderstorms across the Plains states today, with some heavy rain spreading into the Upper Midwest. Behind the system, snow is expected across much of the Intermountain West. Across the higher elevations, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet or more are possible.

 

 

Yup, you read that headline right. October is just about here. Baseball hits the postseason, football is in full swing, hockey is starting up, the leaves are starting to change colors, and pumpkin everything is in the stores. Within the next few days you’ll probably start to see Christmas stuff showing up as well if you haven’t already.

As September ends and October begins, what type of weather do you normally think of? Record heat, right? You thought we were talking about something different, didn’t you? That’ll come soon enough. For now, enjoy the summer-like temperatures, they’ll be here for the next several days, thanks to a large area of high pressure.

Not only is that high pressure area going to keep us dry and warm, it’s going to block Hurricane Maria from coming up the coast (more on Maria in a bit). Alas, all good things must come to an end, and in this case, a cold front is responsible. It will produce a few showers, maybe even a thunderstorm, for late Wednesday and more likely Thursday. One thing we will need to keep an eye on, is if the cold front interacts with Maria when it is well offshore. If it does interact with Maria, it could result in a period of heavy rain. Right now, if this were to occur, it would most likely be either offshore or over Atlantic Canada, but there is a chance it could happen closer to us, especially Cape Cod. High pressure then builds in behind the front for Friday and the weekend with much cooler conditions. It will likely be drier as well, but that’s not set in stone yet. Some of the models show a weak disturbance moving through on Saturday that could produce some showers, while other models have that disturbance slide off to our south. We’re leaning towards the drier solution for now, but confidence is a little less than normal.

As for the tropics, we’ve got two hurricanes in the Atlantic right now, Lee and Maria. After blasting the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico earlier in the week as a Category 4-5 Hurricane, Maria has weakened considerably, and is now a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph. As of early Monday morning Maria was centered about 375 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving toward the north at 8 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Surf City, North Carolina northward to the Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Maria should continue northward for the next couple of days while slowly weakening, passing east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but close enough for some gusty winds and rainfall to impact the region. By mid-week, Maria will encounter strong westerly winds and upper levels, which will make the storm take a big right turn, and head out to sea.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Lee also has maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, and is centered about 900 miles east of Bermuda, drifting toward the east-southeast at 3 mph. Lee may strengthen a bit over the next day or two while turning more towards the west. Eventually, a turn more towards the north and northeast is expected, keeping the storm over open waters for its entire lifespan.

Monday: Some patchy fog early, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 82-89, cooler right along the coast.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Tuesday: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 78-85.

Thursday: Chance for showers early, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 73-80.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 63-70.

Saturday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a few showers. High 61-68.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 61-68.