We’ve got a little bit of everything in the forecast this week – cool weather, warm and humid weather, heavy rain, thunderstorms, and sunshine. What about a hurricane? Not likely in this neck of the woods, but we’ll get to Florence in this outlook.

The week starts off on a cool note with high pressure trying to hang on, but it will lose its grip on the region quickly. A warm front will start to move up from the south while low pressure also starts to approach from the west. That low pressure area contains the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon, and thus is very juicy. It dropped several inches of rain on the Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic states over the weekend. Rain should spread across our area today from south to north. Some of the rain could be locally heavy, especially today and tonight. We’ll also have some gusty winds, especially along the coastline. These winds, combined with astronomical high tides, could result in a little bit of coastal flooding, especially along east-facing shorelines around high tide. Keep that in mind if your travels bring you along the coast around midday today. Rough surf from Florence will start impacting the coast, especially the south coast over the next day or two, and will likely build through the week.

The rain continues tonight as a warm front moves across the area. Temperatures will actually go up overnight as the warm and humid air moves in. Tuesday will not be a washout, but we’ll have occasional showers and thunderstorms with the warm and humid air in place. Low pressure passes north of the region later Tuesday, bringing a cold front in. The front will likely dissipate as it tries to cross the area, but will provide just enough instability for more showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

High pressure builds in on Thursday, with sunshine and less humid conditions expected. This high will remain in place right through the weekend, with partly to mostly sunny skies, warm conditions and comfortable humidity. It will also serve to block Hurricane Florence from coming up here. It could also make things that much worse for the Mid-Atlantic states and the Southeast.

The exact track of Florence is still a question, that it seems fairly certain that it will at least come close to the Carolinas. Whether or not it makes landfall is still not certain. One thing that does seem more likely is that Florence is going to stall out somewhere near the Carolinas as it gets blocked by the high sitting over the Northeast. Whether it stalls just off the coast or inland will make a difference in terms of how much wind and storm surge damage and how quickly the system starts to wind down. What it won’t make a difference with is the fact that it’s going to produce a lot of rain across the area, with widespread flooding. Determining exactly what area will get what conditions will be something that we’ll narrow down in the next few days as we get a better of idea what the track that Florence will take.

The ECMWF is forecasting as much as 15-30 inches of rain, centered in inland North Carolina southwestern Virginia. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The GFS is forecasting as much as 15-30 inches of rain, centered in coastal North Carolina southeastern Virginia. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Cloudy, breezy, and cool with showers developing from south to north, becoming a steady rain late in the day. High 60-67.

Monday night: Periods of rain, heavy at times in the evening, tapering off to showers overnight, maybe a rumble of thunder or two as well. Temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds, breezy, humid, occasional showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers and some patchy fog possible. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine chance for a few showers or thunderstorms. High 76-83.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 74-81.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 73-80.

Saturday: Sunshine continues. High 75-82.

Sunday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 76-83.

We wrote an extensive post about the tropics Saturday night, and not much has changed since then. Hurricane Helene is pulling away from the Cabo Verde Islands and destined to be a fish storm. Hurricane Isaac will become an increasing threat to the Lesser Antilles in the next few days. Hurricane Olivia will weaken before crossing the Hawaiian Islands tomorrow. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of the island chain. Tropical Storm Paul will remain weak over open water in the Eastern Pacific. Typhoon Mangkhut is crossing the Northern Mariana Islands this morning. A new tropical depression has also formed near Taiwan. We may also have another system to watch in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. We’ll have another special blog post about the tropics tomorrow, where we’ll go into a little more detail, especially about Florence, Isaac, Olivia, and the potential system in the Gulf, since those are the ones that will be the biggest threats to land.

We’re into September, which means that meteorological fall has started. Time for cooler weather, leaves changing colors, pumpkin-flavored everything, and football. So naturally, we’re starting the week off with hot and humid conditions.

A ridge of high pressure remains in place off the East Coast, so the hot and humid weather that we’ve dealt with for much of the summer has returned. Heat Advisories are in effect for much of the region, as temperatures should get well into the 80s and lower 90s both today and Tuesday. However, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, the heat index will be in the middle to upper 90s, hence the heat advisories.

Later on Tuesday, a backdoor cold front will drop southward, bringing some cooler air into eastern parts of the area for Tuesday night and Wednesday. “Cooler” is a relative term. In April or May, a backdoor front results in easterly or northeasterly winds off of water that is only in the 40s and 50s, so coastal areas get quite chill while it stays relatively mild well inland. In this case, we’ll have northeast or east winds blowing off of water that is in the lower 70s, so it’s not going to cool off that much at the coast.

The front lifts back northward Wednesday night, resulting in another hot and humid day on Thursday. However, a cold front will be approaching from the northwest. This front may kick off some showers and thunderstorms late in the day and into Thursday night and early Friday. This is where things get more questionable. That front will likely stall out near the South Coast. Exactly where it stalls out is not clear though. If it stalls right along the South Coast, then Friday and Saturday could be cool and damp with periods of showers at times. If it stalls much farther offshore, then the clouds may hang around, especially from Boston southward, but the showers would likely stay offshore. For now, we’re leaning towards the drier scenario. Sunday is an even bigger question mark. One model has high pressure build in with partial sunshine and temperatures only in the 60s, while another model has low pressure move into the Great Lakes, likely the remains of what is currently Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (more on that in a moment), with cool conditions, but also some rain in the afternoon. Since that’s the Patriots home opener, we’ll be keeping an eye on that forecast as the week goes on.

Labor Day: Some patchy fog early, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 68-75.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 85-92, turning cooler along the east coast in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Early clouds, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Sunshine fades behind increasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms are possible late in the day and at night. High 87-94.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, a few more showers are possible. High 72-79.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine.  High 68-75.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, chance for showers in the afternoon.  High 65-72.

Now that we’re into September, we’re approaching the peak on tropical season in the Atlantic, and we have 2 systems to keep an eye on. The more immediate threat is a system that at the time this blog was written was still labelled Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven”. It is expected to become a tropical depression at some point on Monday as it crosses the Florida Keys. It will then turn northwestward while strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico. The current track calls for landfall in southeastern Louisiana Tuesday night as a tropical storm. Storm surge flooding and gusty winds will be threats with this system, but the main threat is heavy rain that could lead to flooding across much of the Gulf Coast.

Well out into the Atlantic we have Tropical Storm Florence. Florence is expected to remain fairly weak as it crosses the Atlantic over the next several days, with only some minor fluctuations in intensity. You may have read on the internet over the weekend that Florence is a threat to the East Coast. Yes, a couple of the models do show that potential, but many others don’t. At this point, it’s more hype than anything else. If it were to become a threat, that would still be a good 10 days or so from now. We’re not worried about it right now. We’d put the odds of an East Coast threat fairly low right now, but not zero, not yet. If it were to become a threat, we’d let you know well in advance.

Labor Day Weekend is coming up? Summer is definitely fading, except that you won’t notice that for the next few days. That’s right, a late-summer heat wave is settling in.

A ridge of high pressure will settle into the East Coast for the next few days while at the surface high pressure remains in place off the East Coast. That means hot and humid conditions through the middle of the week. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Watches are in effect across much of the Northeast. High temperatures will get well into the 90s for much of the area, but when you factor in the dewpoints well into the 70s, the heat index will be well over 100.

A cold front comes through on Thursday, triggering some showers and thunderstorms, and bringing cooler and drier air in. Behind that front, high pressure settles into eastern Canada. Labor Day Weekend might start off quite cool, but as the high slides off to the East, temperatures will start to warm up for the latter half of the holiday weekend. There is one potential fly in the ointment. That front that is coming through on Thursday is likely going to stall out south of New England. Depending on how close it stalls, it may keep clouds and possibly some showers in place, especially along the South Coast. We’ll see how that plays out as we get later on the week.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 85-92.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 67-74.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. High 90-97.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 71-78.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid again. High 90-97.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High 86-93.

Friday: Partly sunny and less humid. High 70-77.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82.

Labor Day: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a few showers. High 80-87.

The heat and humidity have finally departed. Don’t worry, the humidity will be coming back again this week, but only briefly. Then, once it leaves again, the heat might come back. Yup, we’ve got an interesting week coming up.

The week starts off with a frontal system stalled out south of New England and high pressure over New Brunswick. When you combine those two, you get a northeasterly flow, bringing in relatively cool and drier conditions. In the Spring, when water temperatures are only in the 40s or 50s this would result in temperatures in the 40s or 50s along the coast, while areas well inland might get into the 70s (or warmer). However, since it’s mid-August, water temperatures are in the lower to middle 70s, so a northeast wind means temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s along the coast, and upper 70s to lower 80s inland.

Another cold front will start to move towards the area on Tuesday. We’ll have another relatively cool day, but clouds will start to move in. Tuesday night into Wednesday is when we notice bigger changes. A warm front moves through, bringing heat and humidity back into the area. With the warm and humid conditions will also be some thunderstorms. Much like many days over the past month or so, we’re not expecting any widespread severe weather, but a few places could get hit with a nasty storm that contains gusty winds and heavy downpours.

By Thursday, high pressure builds into the region, with seasonably warm conditions for the end of the week and into the weekend. Humidity levels will be fairly low to start, but should rise a bit for the weekend. While most of the region should remain dry as well, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Thursday as an upper-level low pressure area moves across the Northeast.

Monday: A few showers or some drizzle are possible in the morning, mainly south of Boston. Otherwise, intervals of clouds and sunshine, a little breezy, especially along the coast. High 71-78, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 70-77.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms developing, mainly after midnight. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Breezy with occasional showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy at times. High 77-84.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, slight chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm.  High 73-80.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 77-84.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Meanwhile, in the tropics, the Atlantic remains fairly quiet, but in the Pacific, we could have some trouble in paradise. As of early this morning, Hurricane Lane was centered a little more than 700 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, moving towards the west at about 14 mph. Lane had maximum sustained winds around 120 mph. It is expected to gradually weaken over the next several days, while heading westward, before turning more toward the northwest. Where it makes that northwest turn is very important, as it will determine what, if any, impact Lane may have on Hawaii. At the very least, we’re looking some rough surf and some gusty winds, especially across the Big Island. However, a closer pass brings stronger winds and heavy rain in, possibly to more than just the Big Island. Hawaii doesn’t get direct hits very often. In fact, since their tropical cyclone records began in 1950, only 3 hurricanes have made direct hits on Hawaii – Hurricane Dot in 1959, Hurricane Iwa in 1982, and Hurricane Iniki in 1992 – all of which hit the island of Kauai . Dot and Iwa were both Category 1 storms when they hit, while Iniki was a Category 4 storm. There have been a lot more tropical storms that have hit the islands, and hurricanes that passed close enough to impact part of the island chain, but only those 3 have had direct impacts.

The forecast for the upcoming week is both simple, and not-so-simple at the same time. If it feels like you’ve heard this before, it’s because you have. The pattern has remained fairly persistent for a while now, but the subtle details make all the difference.

That stubborn Bermuda High remains in place off the East Coast for much of the week, which means the warm and humid pattern that we’ve been in for a while will continue. However, there are some differences in the pattern that will have other impacts. A frontal system remains stalled out near the East Coast. With an upper-level low pressure system across the Northeast, we’ll have little impulses of energy move through, bringing in some rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. None of these days will be a washout, and some of the rain will be very localized, but anything that does form could produce some heavy rainfall. This was the case over the weekend, when localized totals of 4 to as much as 8 inches produce flash flooding in a few spots.

The upper-level low moves out by mid-week, resulting in less showers and thunderstorm activity, and an increase in temperatures once again. Don’t worry, humidity levels will remain moderate to high right through the week. We could be looking at some places topping 90 again during the latter half of the week. By the weekend, another cold front (an another upper-level trough of low pressure) will approach the region. That means that we could be looking at more showers and thunderstorms. Again, we’re not expecting either day to be a washout right now, so don’t go cancelling any plans just yet. However, we’d have a backup plan ready, just to be safe. With the airmass remaining quite humid, we’d expect any showers and storms next weekend to again  produce some locally heavy rainfall.

So, how much longer will this pattern last? We usually don’t delve into forecasts beyond 7 days, as the models don’t show a lot of skill beyond that, but for now, it looks like we’re locked in for at least a couple more weeks. Beyond that? There are some signs that we could shift into a cooler pattern as we get into early September. Obviously, this is not written in stone, and the cool weather may not even last too long. However, it can’t stay warm and humid forever. The days are getting shorter, meteorological autumn starts in less than 3 weeks, astronomical autumn starts in less than 6 weeks, and most importantly, the Patriots open the regular season 4 weeks from yesterday. Before you know it, we’ll be talking about that 4-letter word that begins with “s” that so many of you hate.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for some showers, maybe a rumble of thunder. High 73-80.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, maybe a lingering shower or two. Low 65-72.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, some showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the afternoon. High 78-85.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, a few lingering showers are possible. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 81-88.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, a pop-up shower or thunderstorm may develop in the afternoon. High 83-90.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, a few showers or thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. High 83-90.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High 79-86.

Sunday:  More clouds than sunshine, more showers and thunderstorms are possible. High 74-81.

Another week gone by filled with heat and humidity, as well as some thunderstorms. Can we expect more of the same this week? Yes, at least for part of the week, though some subtle changes are coming.

The reason for heat and humidity has been a persistent ridge of high pressure in the Eastern US for most of the past few weeks. As you can see in the loop above, that ridge is forecast to shift into the Western US later this week, while a trough of low pressure settles into the Northeast. What does that mean in terms of actual weather? We’ll explain.

With the ridge of high pressure in place aloft, we’ve also had high pressure at the surface, pumping warm and humid air into the region. That will continue today, and likely on Tuesday as well, though a frontal system approaching the region may produce a few showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday. That front will draw closer on Wednesday, likely moving through the region early Thursday. Ahead of it, more showers and thunderstorms are expected, some of which could be locally heavy. Depending on the timing of the front, severe weather is not out of the question. We’ll keep an eye on that as it gets closer.

We’ve had several fronts attempt to move through the region over the past few weeks, but as they run into that high pressure area at the surface and aloft, they end up stalling out and dissipating. With the ridge shifting westward and a trough of low pressure moving into the region, it will help provide enough impetus to help this front move offshore. Now, it’s not much of a “cold” front, as temperatures will still be warm to hot for the end of the week and into the weekend, but the most noticeable effect will be on the humidity. Humidity levels will drop on Thursday, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s replace by dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s for Thursday and Friday. Another frontal system may approach over the weekend, possibly bringing in some additional showers and thunderstorms, but also raising humidity levels a little.

Monday: Some patchy fog early, otherwise sunshine and some high clouds, humid. High 89-96.

Monday night: Mostly clear. Low 68-75.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm, humid. High 88-95.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, a few showers or thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the evening. Low 68-75.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late in the day, with more possible overnight. High 84-91.

Thursday: Early showers and thunderstorms, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 81-88.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 82-89.

Saturday: Partly sunny with some showers and thunderstorms possible. High 79-86.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 79-86.

Did you enjoy the past few weeks with the heat and humidity, or were you more happy with the lower humidity that we enjoyed on Sunday? No matter which you prefer, we’ve got both in the forecast for this week, but a lot more of one than the other (Hint: you’re gonna sweat a lot).

Once again, as is typical of summer, the general forecast is fairly simple. A “Bermuda High” will be anchored off the East Coast for most of the upcoming week. As a result, we get southwest winds pumping warm and humid air into the region. The high will actually start the week centered right over New England, which is why humidity levels will remain fairly low today. As the high slides offshore on Tuesday, a warm front will lift northward. That front may produce a few showers and thunderstorms late in the day, but once it moves through, it allows the humidity to come back in on Wednesday, and remain in place for the rest of the week.

With that warm and humid air in place, we can expect some showers and thunderstorms to pop up each afternoon. Some of these storms may produce heavy downpours and gusty winds in a few spots, but for the most part, we’re not looking at any widespread severe weather outbreaks. A few of the storms each day could become severe, but for the most part, we’re just looking at your typical garden-variety thunderstorms each afternoon. There are a couple of days where they could be a little stronger and a little more numerous. The first day is Wednesday. Low pressure will move across the Great Lakes, and try to bring a cold front into the region. The front will likely dissipate before it is able to move through, but it will create enough instability to help trigger more thunderstorms. The other day is Friday, when we have a similar setup. A frontal system will likely dissipate before it can get across the region, but will help to trigger more widespread showers and thunderstorms.

By next weekend, it looks like the heat will make a comeback as well. There are some indications that next week could end up being quite hot across the area for much of the week, but it’s still a little early to make that call, plus, not all of the models are showing this possibility.

Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 79-86.

Monday night: Thickening clouds. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, more humid, chance for a few showers. High 79-86.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, chance of a shower. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. High 81-88.

Thursday: Partly sunny, chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 83-90.

Friday: More clouds than sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  High 81-88.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, chance for some showers and thunderstorms, especially early in the day. High 81-88.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 86-93.