Weekly Outlook: April 23-29, 2018

Who’s ready for some spring weather finally? OK, so the answer is “everyone”. Guess what? It’s here! Oh, the week won’t be all sunshine and warm temperatures, but some spring better is better than none, right?

We start the week out with high pressure bringing sunshine and warm temperatures to the region today. Tuesday will also be warm, but the sunshine will disappear as clouds start to stream in ahead of a low pressure system moving towards the region. This brings us to Wednesday. It’ll be a cool and damp day, but hey, that’s better than snow, right?

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It’s only temporary (today into Tuesday), but that stubborn upper-level trough of low pressure that’s kept us cool for so long will be replaced by an upper-level ridge of high pressure. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The system pulls away on Thursday and skies clear out again, with temperatures getting back close to normal for late April. Friday starts off nice, but another system sends more clouds in, with showers returning late in the day and at night. Again, would you rather have snow? We didn’t think so.

That system pulls away quickly, setting us up for a “meh” weekend. Not great, not bad, just “meh”. With an upper-level trough of low pressure moving in aloft, and high pressure at the surface, it should be mostly dry, but we’ll still have plenty of clouds popping up, with a shower or two possible, but nothing widespread or heavy. Temperatures will be back below normal, but below normal in late April is a lot better than below normal in late February.

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Normal high temperatures in late April are within a degree or two of 60. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: To quote the great Harris K. Telemacher: “”I’ll have a half double decaffeinated half-caf, with a twist of lemon”. No wait, that’s not the right quote. What we meant was: “Sun! Sun! Sun! Sun! Sun!” High 57-64, coolest right along the coast.

Monday night: Clear skies in the evening, high clouds start to filter in late at night. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Clouds thicken up during the day. High 60-67, cooler along the South Coast.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers developing. Low 42-49.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with occasional showers. High 50-57.

Thursday: A few lingering showers early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 57-64.

Friday: Some early sun, then clouds come back in the afternoon. Showers likely at night. High 60-67.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 58-65, coolest along the coast.

Sunday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower during the afternoon. High 54-61.

GFS 50-STATES USA Mass & CT & RI 2-m Maximum Temperature 240
At least one model thinks some really mild weather could be heading our way as we flip the calendar to May. Will it happen? Time will tell. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Weekly Outlook: April 16-22, 2018

Blah. Yuck. Ugh. Take your pick. Any of those words could describe the weather coming up this week. In case you can’t tell, it’s going to suck. In other words, a typical April week in New England.

The week starts off with low pressure heading into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front towards the region. There may still be some sleet and freezing rain to start the day, especially north and west of Boston, but everything should go over to plain rain during the morning. From late morning through much of the afternoon it’s going rain, sometimes rather heavily. The heavy rain will be accompanied by gusty winds as well. This will make for a rather miserable day for both runners and spectators at the Boston Marathon. The traditional 11am Red Sox game was wisely postponed. This will be the first Patriots Day without a Red Sox game at Fenway since 1995. That year, there was no game because millionaires and billionaires couldn’t figure out how to split billions of dollars, and the millionaires went on strike. The last time the Patriots Day game was postponed due to weather was in 1984.

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Patriots Day in 2015 was a pretty cool and damp day, but the Red Sox did manage to get the game against the Orioles in. Maybe they should stop playing the Orioles on Patriots Day.

 

Temperatures will also be fairly tricky on Monday. Warmer air is going to try to push in from the south, but how far north it gets is a big question mark. Some models bring the milder air as far south as southern New Hampshire, some don’t get it past the Mass Pike. Where the warm air does move in, temperatures should get into the 50s, maybe even the lower 60s. Where it doesn’t, they’ll stay in the 40s, perhaps even the upper 30s.

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How far north will the milder air get on Monday? We’re thinking probably not past Route 2, similar to the High Resolution NAM is showing. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The rain ends Monday night, but an upper-level low pressure system settles into the Northeast for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep plenty of clouds along with cool conditions in place across the region. A few showers are also possible as well, mainly on Tuesday.

The upper-level low moves out on Thursday, but another surface storm system heads towards the region. That means more widespread showers for Thursday into Friday. This system may take its time pulling away, and cooler air will filter in behind it. Don’t be surprised if we see some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain on Friday, especially across southern New Hampshire. The showers should end early Saturday, but with another upper-level low moving in, clouds and cool conditions should remain in place. High pressure finally starts to build in on Sunday, with sunshine returning.

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Don’t be surprised if you see some snowflakes on Friday, as the ECMWF model is showing, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Any lingering sleet or freezing rain early changing to plain rain. Rain may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Windy. High 42-49 north of Route 2, 50-57 south of Route 2.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine with a few showers possible. High 45-52.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 29-36.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for another shower. High 47-54.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers developing. High 45-52.

Friday: Cloudy with more showers, possibly mixing with some wet snow at times, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 43-50.

Saturday: Showers taper off early, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 48-55.

Sunday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 52-59.

 

Winter’s Last Gasp?

We’ve reached Patriots Day weekend, which is usually one of the truest signs that winter is over and Spring has finally started in New England. This year that will not be the case. In fact, this year, Patriots Day weekend is going to be absolutely miserable.

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In mid-April, high temperatures should normally be in the middle to upper 50s around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Don’t let today’s warmth fool you. Even though temperatures are in the 60s and even lower 70s away from the South Coast, big changes are coming, and not for the better. A backdoor cold front will drop down across the region late tonight and early Saturday, bringing much colder air back into the region. Temperatures are going to go slowly down through the 40s all day on Saturday and gusty northeast to east winds are going to make it feel even colder. By Saturday evening, temperatures will drop into the 30s, and they’ll likely stay there through most of Sunday. They may start to drift back up Sunday night and Monday, but it will still be on the chilly side. That’s the least of our problems.

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Temperatures on Sunday will be 15 to 25 degrees (or more) below normal. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

A large storm system is going to bring severe weather to the Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast today and tomorrow, while producing blizzard conditions in the Plains and Upper Midwest, with a significant ice storm expected in parts of the Great Lakes. That storm is going to slowly make progress eastward over the next few days, with the moisture from it likely arriving late Saturday. As we mentioned earlier, temperatures are going to be dropping into the 30s late on Saturday. If you combine that with incoming moisture, you get a giant mess.

Rain will develop late Saturday afternoon or evening across the region, but as temperatures continue to drop, some sleet will likely mix in, with freezing rain also a possibility, especially north and west of Boston where temperatures could even fall into the upper 20s Saturday night. Sleet and freezing rain will continue across much of the region for a good chunk of the day on Sunday, as temperatures will only rebound into the middle 30s at best for most of the area. The reason we’re expecting sleet (and freezing rain) and not snow, is that the colder air will all be at the lower levels of the atmosphere. It will actually be warmer aloft. We wouldn’t be surprised if the summit of Mount Washington is one of the warmest places in New England Sunday afternoon.

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This storm may drop quite a bit of sleet on the region Saturday night into Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Somewhat milder air will start to filter in Sunday night as low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. This will change everything back over to a cold rain. For once, a cold rain is actually good news, because it means we don’t have to worry about the sleet any more. However, this is bad news as we head into Marathon Monday. As that low heads off to the north and west of the region, it will bring a cold front towards the Northeast. As warmer air surges northward ahead of the front, it will help bring some heavy rain into the area. That warmer air will mainly be aloft, but some of it could reach the surface during the afternoon. In the morning though, when the race starts, and the Red Sox are scheduled to play, we’ll likely have periods of heavy rain, with temperatures only in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Not exactly baseball or running weather. Temperatures could get into the 50s or even low 60s in the afternoon, especially south of Boston, but we’ll still have the heavy rain to deal with. The cold front moves through late in the day, and drier air starts to filter in on Tuesday. Even then, a few showers are still possible as an upper-level low pressure system moves across the Northeast.

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The GFS forecast is not pretty for the next few days. Stay inside, watch some playoff hockey, and remember that warmer weather is coming eventually. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

So, is this it for winter? We’d like to say yes, but at this point, we can’t make that statement definitively. Longer-range models show below normal temperatures continuing into much of May. While it’s awfully tough to get wintry weather around here at this time of year, it’s not impossible. We have had heavy snow events in late April (1987), and early May (1977). As some of you may remember, in 2013, up to 3 feet of snow fell in parts of Northern New England and Upstate New York during Memorial Day weekend. So, we’d wait until at least mid-May before taking the flip-flops and shorts out of where ever you stored them for the winter.

 

Weekly Outlook: April 9-15, 2018

Since it seems like winter doesn’t want to end, a question we’ve been asked lately is “when is it going to finally warm up”? If you believe some of the guys on TV or the Facebook Forecasters,  then the answer is “the end of this week.” However, we’re not so sure about that. Not yet, at least.

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The first week of April has seen temperatures average several degrees below normal across the Northeast. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center

We start the week off with an area of high pressure keeping us dry on Monday. Tuesday will feature plenty of clouds along with some snow or rain showers as a weak system moves across the region. High pressure returns on Wednesday, with dry and cool conditions once again. The end of the week is where things get iffy.

On Thursday, low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will send a warm front towards the region. Some showers are likely ahead of this warm front, meaning Thursday will be a gray and possibly damp day. If the warm front does come through, and that’s far from certain right now, a cold front will move through at night as that low pressure system passes north of the region. That cold front will likely stall out south of New England. This leads to our next problem. Does it head northward again as a warm front?

14-km EPS Global KNZW SOUTH WEYMOUTH 15-day Daily Temperature
How uncertain is the late-week warmth? Using this chart which is based on the ECMWF Ensemble forecast for South Weymouth, MA, the high temperature on Saturday could be anywhere from 41 to 76, with a mean of 62. Sunday is nearly as bad with a range of 38 to 70 with as mean of 57. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Another storm system will move into the Midwest towards the end of the week. Some of the models are trying to have that system lift the front northward again, bringing very mild air into the region later Friday into Saturday. This is certainly possible. However, we’ll have plenty of cold air in place to the north, plus some very cold water off to our east. If you’ve lived here long enough, you know that warm weather doesn’t last too long around here, especially in April. Adding to our doubts is the fact that the models have the storm pass north and west of Chicago. A noted colleague once pointed out to us that with storms passing north and west of Chicago, warm fronts have plenty of trouble making northward progress around here, as they become too far removed from the main system, and lose the push that they need to head northward. This is more obvious in the winter, but since we’re still in a winter-type pattern, we’re taking note of that observation.

Finally, we get to Sunday. This is where things REALLY get complicated. If our warm front comes through, it’ll likely start heading southward again later Saturday as colder air tries to push back in. This could set us up for a VERY chilly Sunday. At the time this forecast was written early Monday morning, one model kept temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s all day Sunday, another kept temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s, while a third model had temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s (see maps below). So, there’s plenty of uncertainty. Meanwhile, another cold front will be approaching from the west, and low pressure will be riding out of the Gulf of Mexico along that front. That means that clouds and a few showers are likely. As the low pressure area gets nearer, we could be in for a period of heavy rain, but the timing of that, as well as the actual cold front, are still big question marks. The heavy rain could move in for Sunday night, it might move in Monday morning, or it might hold off until Monday night. Since next Monday is Patriots Day, this makes a BIG difference. We’ll know more on that later in the week.

 

Monday: Sunshine dimmed by thickening clouds in the afternoon. High 40-47.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with some rain or snow showers possible. High 41-48.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 47-54.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 51-58.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. High 57-64, cooler along the South Coast.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, and warm. High 60-67, cooler along the South Coast. Temperatures may drop sharply in the afternoon from southern New Hampshire into eastern Massachusetts.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy, more showers possible, especially late in the day. High 45-52, possibly milder south of Boston.

Weekly Outlook: April 2-8, 2018

We’ve got a lot of different types of weather coming up this week, starting with some snow today, and that’s not an April Fools joke.

The week actually starts off with some light snow for parts of the area. A storm system will pass south of New England today, with a period of light snow likely during the morning, mainly south of Route 2. This will not be a big deal, as there are several factors working against this system.

  1. It will be fast-moving, with snow moving in around the morning rush hour and ending around midday.
  2. Temperatures will be near or above freezing when most of the precipitation falls.
  3. Since it’s early April,, the sun angle is high enough that it’ll be tough to accumulate on paved surfaces unless it comes down very hard.
  4. Dry air in place at the start will evaporate some of the snow before it hits the ground.

Add up all those factors, and you don’t much snow accumulation. In fact, we’re only expecting 1-2 inches on grassy surfaces, mainly from Boston southward. A few places could pick up 3 inches, but that’s about it. Not a big deal.

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The GFS snowfall forecast is probably closest to our thinking for today’s snow. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Skies clear out during the afternoon, but clouds quickly come back in at night as a warm front starts to approach the region on Tuesday. We’ll have rain moving back in during the afternoon and evening, possibly mixed with a little wet snow in a few spots. The warm front comes through overnight, with temperatures rising after midnight. Wednesday will be a cloudy and mild day, but a cold front will be approaching from the west. This will produce more showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. Temperatures drop quickly behind the front Wednesday evening.

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Wednesday is looking like a mild day before the cold front arrives with showers in the afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

This brings us to the most important day of the week – Thursday. Why is Thursday the most important day? It’s the Red Sox home opener at Fenway! Last year, the opener was on April 3, against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and it was, partly cloudy, breezy, and 48 degrees at game time. This year, it’ll be partly cloudy and breezy once again, but it’s probably not going be 48 degrees at game time. We’ll probably need to shave about 3 or 4 degrees off of that. If you have tickets, dress like you’re going to a Pats game in November.

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Clouds stream back in later in the day as another weak system approaches. This system will bring in some light rain or snow Friday into early Saturday, but again, this will not be a big deal, with little to no accumulation expected. High pressure then builds back in later on Saturday and into Sunday. Having said that, some of the models are showing the potential for a storm system to impact the region on Sunday. We’re not ready to jump on board with this just yet, but it would not be unprecedented. Most of us remember the April Fools Day storm from 1997, but how many people remember the April 6-7, 1982 storm? Temperatures stayed in the teens and 20s during that storm. We also had back-to-back storms April 7-8 and April 9-10 in 1996, which dropped a combined 8-20 inches of snow on the area. If this storm starts looking more likely, we’ll let you know later in the week.

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Snowfall totals from the April 6-7, 1982 snowstorm. Image provided by NOAA.

Monday: Light snow likely in the morning, mainly south of Route 2, then some sunshine may return in the afternoon. High 39-46.

Monday night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming cloudy again after midnight. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and breezy with occasional showers. Low 36-43 in the evening, then temperatures rise after midnight.

Wednesday: Windy and mild with more showers possible, maybe even a rumble of thunder. High 57-64, coolest along the South Coast.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. High 39-46.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some light rain or snow possible, especially late in the day and at night. High 44-51.

Saturday: Chance of light rain or snow early, then becoming partly sunny. High 37-44.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 40-47.

Weekly Outlook: March 26-April 1, 2018

March certainly came in like a lion, but true to form, it’s probably going out like a lamb. After a very active month, much of the upcoming week will feature some rather benign weather.

The week starts out with high pressure to our north and northeast, meaning dry but cool conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Of course, cool is a relative term, since “cool” late March means 40s for highs, as opposed to teens and 20s in January. That also means that we’ll continue to melt this persistent snow cover that we’ve had. Of course, with melting during the day and temperatures dropping below freezing at night, the potential exists for some black ice, so use a little caution if you’re heading out during the next few evenings.

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High temperatures should be right around 50 for the final week of March. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

For Wednesday, a weak system moves across the region, bringing us some scattered showers. If the precipitation moves in early enough, which is a possibility, we could see a little freezing rain or some sleet Wednesday morning, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire.

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Some freezing rain is possible across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley as precipitation moves in Wednesday morning. Im age provided by WeatherBell.

This brings us to Thursday, which will be a sure sign for many of you that Spring has finally arrived. Sure, it’ll be dry and mild. Temperatures should be well into the 50s across the area. More important than that – it’s Opening Day. The 2018 regular season begins for the Boys of Summer. When Chris Sale steps to the mound at Tropicana Field, the fans there won’t see a single cloud in the sky, but that’s because it’s a domed stadium and you can’t see the sky from inside the park. Around here, if you’re tuning into NESN or WEEI, it should be a fantastic day to leave work a little early (first pitch is at 4pm), and enjoy the fact that baseball is back. In fact, Thursday will feature a Boston/Tampa doubleheader on NESN. No, not two baseball games, but right after the Sox and Rays play, the Bruins and Lightning will faceoff at the Garden with 1st place in the Eastern Conference on the line. If you’re a fan of both hockey and baseball (like we are here at StormHQ), then there aren’t too many days on the calendar better than Thursday.

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Back to the weather, Friday will still be mild, but also wet, as a storm system passes north and west of the region. Of course, given the way this past winter has gone, we wouldn’t be surprised if that storm trended farther south and east, and we end up cooler, but for now, we’ll remain optimistic.

Behind the system, we should remain seasonably mild on Saturday, with showers ending in the morning but Sunday is the day with questions. At least one model wants to bring another system right in with windy, wet, and warmer conditions, while another model wants to build a high pressure system in with sunshine and seasonable conditions. Once again, we’ll remain optimistic, but be forewarned, you may need umbrellas for your Easter or Passover plans.

Monday: Clouds linger across Cape Cod, becoming partly to mostly sunny elsewhere. High 37-44.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 22-29.

Tuesday: Sunshine to start, then high clouds filter in during the afternoon. High 41-48.

Tuesday night: Becoming cloudy, showers developing late at night, possibly starting as some freezing rain in the Merrimack Valley and southern New Hampshire. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Cloudy with scattered showers likely. High 41-48.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks. High 54-61, cooler right along the South Coast.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. High 50-57.

Saturday: Showers ending in the morning, some sunshine develops in the afternoon, breezy. High 48-55.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 45-52.

Storm Update: Things Might Not Be So Bad

Unlike the last storm, which we admittedly underestimated, this storm is likely not going to live up to expectations for parts of the region, mainly north and west of Boston.

As the storm starts to move in this afternoon and evening, there is a lot of dry air in place. Dewpoints are only in the upper teens and 20s across much of the region. So, as the moisture from the storm moves in, it’s moistening up the atmosphere slowly, but anything that falls from the clouds is evaporating before hitting the ground.

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Very dry air remains in place across the region this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Eventually, the moisture will overcome this drier air, but the storm is also tracking a little farther to the south than we were thinking yesterday. As a result, snowfall totals will be considerably lower north and west of Boston than our previous forecast. Of course, this also means that there could be a bit more snow than we were thinking south of Boston, especially across Cape Cod, though some rain could still mix in there, which would limit amounts a bit.. This scenario was first hinted at by the ECMWF model 2 days ago, and most meteorologists thought of it as an outlier, since most of the other model guidance was painting a snowier scenario. We tended to discount it as well, but in the back of our minds, we kept hearing a phrase that a noted meteorologist has repeated over and over to us “Ignore the Euro at your own peril.”

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Hour-by-hour forecast for the storm based on the HRRR model from 2pm Wednesday through 8am Thursday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

So, with that in mind, we are revising our forecast to be closer to what the European model is showing (but not exactly):

Southeastern Massachusetts/Cape Cod: 5-9″ (possibly less on the Outer Cape if rain mixes in)
I-95 Corridor (Boston/Providence): 4-7″
MetroWest: 3-5″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 2-4″
Southern NH (Nashua/Manchester): 1-3″

This will still be a fairly wet snow south of Boston, so keep that in mind when you go out to shovel it tonight or Thursday. Once the sun comes up, thanks to the higher sun angle, any additional accumulations are not expected on paved or treated surfaces. Everything should wind down and end completely by early Thursday afternoon.

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Snowfall forecast from the ECMWF model through Thursday evening. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As this storm moves into Atlantic Canada, and upper-level low will settle into the Northeast for Friday and Saturday, keeping us cloudy and cool. An impulse riding around the system may bring some light snow and snow showers in on Saturday, but accumulations will likely be on the light side, if we get much at all.

Mother Nature Ignores the Start of Spring

“Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.”

At 12:15 EDT this afternoon, the sun was directly over the Equator, marking the Vernal Equinox, or as it is more commonly known, the start of Astronomical Spring. Here in New England, astronomical seasons don’t have really have much influence on the weather, at least the start and end of those seasons. Take this week for example. Tomorrow is the first full day of spring, but we’re expecting another snowstorm. Yup, that’d be the fourth one this month.

There’s actually a storm passing well south of New England today, so in a sense, we were spared a bit. It’s producing some rain and snow across the Mid-Atlantic states and sending a veil of high clouds across New England, dimming the sunshine this afternoon. Another storm will quickly follow on Wednesday, thickening up the cloud cover. Let’s start out by saying that this storm will not be as bad as the ones we’ve had earlier this month. We’re not expecting blizzard conditions. Oh, we’ll still have a decent amount of snow, strong winds, and some coastal flooding issues, but not at the magnitude of the earlier storms.

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Forecast for the storm’s progression based on the High-Resolution version of the NAM model. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

We’ll start with the winds and coastal flooding. Tides are astronomically high again this week, so the biggest concern will be at high tide at northeast and north facing beaches, especially the high tides early Wednesday and Thursday morning, as well as Wednesday afternoon. A coastal flood watch is in effect for the early Thursday morning high tide across Plymouth County as well as the Cape and Islands. As for the winds, sustained winds of 20-30 mph are expected, especially along the coast, with gusts of 40-50 mph, perhaps as high as 60 mph across the Cape and Islands, Southeastern Massachusetts, and parts of Rhode Island. Combine that with heavy, wet snow (more on that in a moment), and yes, power outages become a concern once again.

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Wind gusts for 11pm Wednesday predicted by the High-Resolution NAM model Image provided by WeatherBell.

Now, for the part that most of you care about – snowfall. The snow should develop during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. While it’ll be snowing during the afternoon rush hour, it shouldn’t cause too many problems (the people on the roads, however, probably will). With the higher sun angle at this time of year (equivalent to mid-September), and only light snow expected during the daylight hours on Wednesday, accumulations will be fairly light, especially on paved surfaces. Once the sun sets, steadier snow will move in, with the bulk of the accumulating snow expected Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. While the accumulating snow will be all done Thursday morning, light snow and snow showers may linger into the afternoon. We also will likely be dealing with a rain/snow line. A change to rain seems likely across Cape Cod for a while Wednesday evening, with that changeover likely penetrating into parts of southeastern Massachusetts. The question is – how far? Right now, we don’t expect it to get past Route 44, if it even gets that far.

That brings us to the amounts. With temperatures close to freezing, this is going to be a heavy, wet snow, so keep that in mind when you go out to shovel or fire up the snowblower. Here’s what we’re thinking:

Cape Cod: 1-3″, highest totals on the Upper Cape
South Coast: 3-5″
South and East of I-95: 4-7″
Metro Boston/MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/North Shore: 5-9″
Southern NH (Nashua/Manchester)/NH Seacoast: 4-7″

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The snowfall forecast from the High-Resolution NAM model is closest to our thinking right now. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once this system pulls away, an upper-level low pressure area will slowly move across the Northeast, which may give us some additional snow showers on Friday and Saturday, but we’re not expecting much accumulation (if any), with those. Beyond that – right now, the models aren’t showing any big storms over the next 2 weeks, but that is always subject to change. Remember, just a couple of days ago, most of the TV talking heads told you that this storm was going to stay offshore and we didn’t have to worry about it. As for when we can expect some actual “Spring” weather – well, the pattern looks to remain chilly right into at least early April.

 

Weekly Outlook: March 19-25, 2018

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To many of you, March Madness started this past weekend, and by now, your bracket is busted. For some of you, March Madness has been going on for a couple of weeks, and you’ve got trees and other things that are busted. Will the Madness continue? It looks like it may, for at least part of the region.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, so we have another dry but chilly day for Monday. Clouds start to stream in on Tuesday as low pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Unlike most of the storms that have impacted us this month, this storm should slide off to our south, with little to no impact on New England this time. However, another storm quickly follows behind that one, and this one should be a bit farther north and west, meaning that at least parts of the region will see some impact. There is still many questions about the exact track this storm will take and how strong it will be, so we’ll likely have a special post later in the week about it, but for now, we have some preliminary ideas.

It looks like a period of light snow is expected from Wednesday morning into Thursday morning across the area. The snow is most likely across southeastern Massachusetts, but could extend as far inland as southern New Hampshire and central Massachusetts. There’s also the chance that some rain could mix in across Cape Cod. These are the type of details we won’t be able to resolve until sometime on Tuesday most likely. One thing we are fairly certain of is that another period of strong winds is likely across eastern Massachusetts, especially along the coast. Tides are astronomically high again this week, so coastal flooding will be a concern at high tide, especially the high tides early Wednesday and Thursday morning, as well as Wednesday afternoon.

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Sustained winds of 20-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph are possible Wednesday into early Thursday along the coastline. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The storm starts to pull away Thursday afternoon, but with an upper-level low pressure system moving through, plenty of clouds are likely into Friday, with a few flurries possible. High pressure briefly builds in for Saturday with some sunshine, but clouds quickly return in the afternoon as the next system starts to approach. As for that system on Sunday, the usual caveats apply – it’s seven days away, there’s a ton of uncertainty, things can and will change, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 32-39.

Monday night: Clear in the evening, then high clouds start to stream in late at night. Low 14-21.

Tuesday: Thickening clouds. High 33-40.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy and becoming breezy. Chance for light snow towards daybreak along the south coast. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with light snow likely, possibly mixing with rain across Cape Cod. High 30-37.

Thursday: Light snow ending early, a few sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon, still breezy. High 37-44.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for a flurry. High 38-45.

Saturday: Sunny to start, clouds return in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow or rain. High 32-39.

Storm Update: This Could Be Bad

So, remember just 24 hours ago when we said that we weren’t buying all of the ridiculous numbers being floated out there because we expected the models to shift the storm a bit eastward? Yeah, the opposite happened.

Hey, we’re the first ones to admit when we are wr….wro…..wro….when our forecast starts going off the track. We wait until we’re fairly sure we’ve got a good forecast before we publish, because we want you to have the best info available. Well, in this case, that didn’t work out. Luckily, we still haven’t gotten into the storm, so we have time to fix things.

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Forecast for the storm based on the GFS model. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

The basics that we outlined last night still hold true. Low pressure will move up the East Coast and rapidly intensify, passing south and east of Cape Cod later Tuesday. Strong winds are likely, especially along the coast. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph inland and possibly 70 mph along the coast. We may have understated the coastal flood threat a bit, but still, any coastal flooding will be minor in nature and confined to right around high tide.

Even the timing is still close to what we were thinking last night. Precipitation should develop near or just after midnight, and quickly get heavy. Blizzard conditions are likely, mainly along the coastline, from daybreak through early afternoon. Snowfall should start to lighten up after midday, but likely doesn’t completely end until late evening or even close to midnight Tuesday night.

That brings us to the snowfall amounts. There are still some models that are showing amounts that border on ridiculous. As you should know by know, our forecasts, while filled with sarcasm and satire, try to be level-headed, not ridiculous. How much can you expect?

Outside of I-495: 6-12″
Merrimack Valley/Southern NH/NH Seacoast: 8-14″
Most of the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island: 12-18″

The “jackpot” is likely to be across portions of Plymouth County and onto Cape Cod, where some totals of 18 to perhaps 24″ are possible. The big question here is whether any rain mixes in. This is especially possibly across the Outer Cape and Nantucket. If there is any rain, that will knock accumulations down.

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The GFS model is still the closest to our current thinking for snowfall amounts. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once the storm moves out, an upper-level low pressure area may trigger additional snow showers on Wednesday and again Thursday (and possibly Friday too). Oh, and since you’re all sick of snowstorms by now, depending on which model you believe, we could have as many as 3 more between now and the end of March. We’ll worry about each of those as they become a threat (or don’t).