Weekly Outlook: April 16-22, 2018

Blah. Yuck. Ugh. Take your pick. Any of those words could describe the weather coming up this week. In case you can’t tell, it’s going to suck. In other words, a typical April week in New England.

The week starts off with low pressure heading into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front towards the region. There may still be some sleet and freezing rain to start the day, especially north and west of Boston, but everything should go over to plain rain during the morning. From late morning through much of the afternoon it’s going rain, sometimes rather heavily. The heavy rain will be accompanied by gusty winds as well. This will make for a rather miserable day for both runners and spectators at the Boston Marathon. The traditional 11am Red Sox game was wisely postponed. This will be the first Patriots Day without a Red Sox game at Fenway since 1995. That year, there was no game because millionaires and billionaires couldn’t figure out how to split billions of dollars, and the millionaires went on strike. The last time the Patriots Day game was postponed due to weather was in 1984.

Orioles42015 002
Patriots Day in 2015 was a pretty cool and damp day, but the Red Sox did manage to get the game against the Orioles in. Maybe they should stop playing the Orioles on Patriots Day.

 

Temperatures will also be fairly tricky on Monday. Warmer air is going to try to push in from the south, but how far north it gets is a big question mark. Some models bring the milder air as far south as southern New Hampshire, some don’t get it past the Mass Pike. Where the warm air does move in, temperatures should get into the 50s, maybe even the lower 60s. Where it doesn’t, they’ll stay in the 40s, perhaps even the upper 30s.

hires_t2max_boston_25
How far north will the milder air get on Monday? We’re thinking probably not past Route 2, similar to the High Resolution NAM is showing. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The rain ends Monday night, but an upper-level low pressure system settles into the Northeast for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep plenty of clouds along with cool conditions in place across the region. A few showers are also possible as well, mainly on Tuesday.

The upper-level low moves out on Thursday, but another surface storm system heads towards the region. That means more widespread showers for Thursday into Friday. This system may take its time pulling away, and cooler air will filter in behind it. Don’t be surprised if we see some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain on Friday, especially across southern New Hampshire. The showers should end early Saturday, but with another upper-level low moving in, clouds and cool conditions should remain in place. High pressure finally starts to build in on Sunday, with sunshine returning.

9-km ECMWF USA Surface undefined undefined 120
Don’t be surprised if you see some snowflakes on Friday, as the ECMWF model is showing, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Any lingering sleet or freezing rain early changing to plain rain. Rain may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Windy. High 42-49 north of Route 2, 50-57 south of Route 2.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine with a few showers possible. High 45-52.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 29-36.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for another shower. High 47-54.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers developing. High 45-52.

Friday: Cloudy with more showers, possibly mixing with some wet snow at times, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 43-50.

Saturday: Showers taper off early, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 48-55.

Sunday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 52-59.

 

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