Author: wxmanscottk

Weekly Outlook: January 10-16, 2022

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Dig out the thermals and heavy winter gear, some really cold air is on the way.

Temperatures will turn colder today despite some sunshine, but this is just the opening act for what is on the way. An arctic cold front will cross the region this evening. It may produce some snow showers or squalls, so if you’ll be out this evening, be prepared for a short burst of snow that could significantly reduce visibility and drop a quick coating on the roads. Once the front moves offshore, bitterly cold air will flood into the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop below zero in parts of the region Tuesday morning. Despite plenty of sunshine Tuesday afternoon, highs may struggle to reach the lower teens across most of the area, with wind chills that are below zero. Across Cape Cod, there may not be as much sunshine, as northwest winds blowing over the relatively mild water of Cape Cod Bay could produce some ocean-effect snow showers, especially across the Outer Cape. We’ll have another bitterly cold night Tuesday night, with subzero lows possible once again, but as high pressure slides off to the east on Wednesday, temperatures should start to moderate. It’ll still be chilly, but highs should get into the 30s across the area.

Wind chills could be well below zero Tuesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Temperatures will turn colder again for the end of the week, but there are bigger concerns. We’ve cautioned you recently that the models have performed rather poorly beyond 2 or 3 days, and that is still the case, so this part of the forecast is highly uncertain. However, many models are showing the potential for a powerful ocean storm to develop late Thursday into Friday, and a second storm to do the same over the weekend. The fact that they all show this gives us a little more confidence that they both may actually develop. The problem is, that’s about all they agree on. They don’t agree on the timing of the storms, the track they might take, how strong they’ll get, and what, if any, impacts they may have up here. These are things that we’ll be keeping a close eye on as the week goes by, but for now, what you read below is our “best guess” (for lack of a better term), but it is very low confidence.

The models all have different ideas about a potential coastal storm on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 23-30.

Monday night: Partly cloudy and breezy, some snow showers or squalls are possible during the evening. Low -2 to 5 north and west of Boston, 6-13 south of Boston, wind chills could drop to -10 to -20 by daybreak.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and very cold, except partly to mostly cloudy with some snow showers across parts of Cape Cod. High 8-15, with wind chills below zero.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low -2 to +5.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and milder. High 31-38.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35-42.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for some light snow or snow showers, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. High 28-35.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny and cold. High 21-28.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds with a chance of snow, especially in eastern Massachusetts. High 28-35.

Weekend Outlook: January 7-10, 2022

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Our first snowstorm of the season is on the way for Friday, but it’s just part of a colder pattern we’re heading into for the weekend and beyond.

A variety of advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect across the region. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

Low pressure is moving across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, and it will head east-northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, passing south and east of New England on Friday as it intensifies. We’ll see snow developing before daybreak, and it may fall heavy at times during the morning, which will result in significant problems for the morning commute. The snow should come to an end by mid-afternoon across the region. Based on the trends in the models since last night, we are adjusting our snowfall forecast upwards a bit, but not that much. Here’s our latest projections:

Southern NH: 3-5″
NH Seacoast/Merrimack Valley: 3-6″
MetroWest/I-495 Belt: 4-7″
I/95 corridor/SE Mass/RI: 5-8″
Upper Cape Cod: 3-6″
Outer Cape/Islands: 1-3″

The National Blend of Models is closest to our thinking right now, but it may be a bit on the high side. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The storm pulls away Friday evening, and skies clear out as high pressure builds in, setting up a sunny but rather chilly Saturday, with many places likely staying in the 20s all day. With clear skies and fresh snowcover, temperatures will quickly plunge Saturday evening into the teens and possibly single numbers in some spots. Clouds stream back in late Saturday night as another system moves toward the region. While this system looks a bit milder, with southerly winds warming things up a bit on Sunday, the models have been trending less mild with every run. With that in mind, we’ll probably see some snow showers or a little freezing rain develop north and west of Boston Sunday afternoon, changing to rain by evening. Keep this in mind if you are going to be out and about Sunday afternoon. Elsewhere, just plain rain is expected. The rain may mix with some wet snow before winding down around daybreak Monday. After that, some of the coldest air thus far this winter will pour into the region. Temperatures may not rise much, if at all, Monday afternoon. The coldest weather looks to arrive on Tuesday, when highs may stay in the teens, with subzero lows possible Tuesday night. We’ll have more info on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Tuesday looks like a very cold day across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Becoming cloudy, snow developing 2-5am. Low 23-30.

Friday: Breezy with snow, possibly heavy at times in the morning, ending 12-3pm. High 28-35.

Friday night: Clearing, colder. Low 11-18.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, chilly. High 24-31.

Saturday night: Clear through the evening, clouds start to move back in late at night. Low 10-17, but temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely in the afternoon, possibly starting as snow or freezing rain north and west of Boston. High 37-44.

Sunday night: Showers changing to snow showers before ending by daybreak. Low 22-29.

Monday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and colder. Temperatures hold steady or drop a bit during the day.

Did Someone Say Snow?

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We haven’t had much of the flaky white stuff yet this winter, but that’s going to change on Friday.

Very little snow has fallen across much of the region so far this winter. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A low pressure area currently moving across the Pacific Northwest will make its way across the country over the next 24-36 hours, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday night, passing south and east of New England Friday morning. The system will be moving fairly quickly, and while it will become a rather potent storm as it heads into Atlantic Canada, it won’t be that strong when it passes New England. This means that we’re looking at a light to perhaps moderate snowstorm across the region on Friday. For the most part, this will be mostly snow across the region, with any rain mixing in likely confined to the Outer Cape and Islands. With this in mind, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect on Friday from 1am until 1pm for all of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts (not including Cape Cod) as well as the Boston area

The ECMWF shows the quick progression of the storm Thursday night and Friday. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

First, we’ll talk about the timing, which isn’t optimal. The snow will likely develop across the region between 3 and 5am, which means it will have a significant impact on the morning commute. For the most part, the snow will be light, but there will be a few embedded steadier bursts of snow through the morning. The snow should wind down and end between 12 and 3 pm, so it could have an impact on the afternoon commute, but the roads should be in good shape by that point as long as crews have been keeping up with it all day.

As for how much to expect, as we already mentioned, this won’t be a big deal. However, since it’s the first real widespread accumulating snow of the winter, it’ll turn into a bigger deal than it probably should be. Here’s our thinking:

Southern NH: 1-3″
NH Seacoast/Merrimack Valley: 2-4″
I-95 corridor: 3-5″
Southeastern Mass/RI: 4-7″
Upper Cape Cod: 3-5″
Outer Cape/Islands: 1-3″

The National Weather Service forecast is fairly close to ours, maybe a tad higher. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Saturday looks to be sunny but chilly, with another system bringing milder air and rain back in later Sunday into early Monday. However, it’s looking more and more like a brief but significant cold shot is coming for Tuesday/Wednesday next week. We’ll provide an update on the snow forecast in our Weekend Outlook tomorrow.

Weekly Outlook: January 3-9, 2022

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A rather active pattern is expected to continue for this week, with some snow for parts of the region, possibly more than once.

The week starts off with low pressure passing south of the region today. It will be close enough to spread some light snow into the Cape and Islands, and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. Any accumulations will be confined to the Cape and Islands, with Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard possibly seeing a few inches. For the rest of us, it’ll be a cloudy and chilly day. Many places won’t get out of the 20s, and wind chills will be in the teens, so keep that in mind if you’ll be outside for any length of time today. We’ll clear out tonight as the system pulls away, then high pressure builds in with sunshine and seasonably cool conditions on Tuesday. We’ll start to warm up again on Wednesday, but also will have plenty of clouds and some showers ahead of another cold front. That front moves through early on Thursday, bringing an end to the showers, and ushering cooler air back in. After that, things get very uncertain.

Most of the snow today will be confined to the Cape and Islands. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Some of the models have been hinting at the potential for coastal storm in the Thursday night/Friday time frame for quite some time now. However, since the models have downright awful beyond about 2-3 days, we haven’t bothered to look at the details too much, but have noted the potential. Well, it’s 5 days away now, and there is still plenty of disagreement as to what could happen, or if there will even be a system to affect the region. We’re of the belief that there will be a system, and it could produce some snow across at least inland locations. Beyond that, we’re not prepared to go into much more detail yet (though some of the usual internet trolls will probably be more than happy to find maps from models that show heavy snow and will share them all over Facebook and Twitter). Obviously, we’ll have a better idea as we get towards mid-week, and will elaborate more at that point, if needed.

Storm or no storm on Friday? It depends on which model you believe, if any of them. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure builds in for Saturday with dry and chilly conditions, then another system could bring in some snow or rain showers for Sunday.

Monday: Plenty of clouds, snow showers likely across the Cape and Islands. High 25-32.

Monday night: Clearing and cold. Low 11-18.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 29-36.

Tuesday night: Increasing clouds. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, mild, chance for showers. High 45-52.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 35-42.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow or rain. High 32-39.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 26-33.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with some snow or rain showers possible. High 37-44.

Weekly Outlook: December 27, 2021 – January 2, 2022

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The final days of 2021 will feature an active weather pattern that doesn’t really do too much.

High pressure starts the week off with sunshine, but clouds quickly move in later today ahead of a weak storm system moving toward the region. This system will lose much of its punch, and the bulk of its precipitation will stay to our south, but a few snow showers or some spotty freezing rain are possible early Tuesday as it moves through, with mainly rain showers south of Boston. Another system quickly follows for Tuesday night and Wednesday with a few rain or snow showers. Yet another weak system may bring in a few more showers on Thursday. High pressure brings in dry and seasonable conditions for New Years Eve. If you’re heading out for any First Night festivities, the weather shouldn’t be an issue. New Years Day also looks decent with high pressure in control.

Normal high temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s at the end of December. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Sunday is where we could have problems. As we’ve mentioned numerous times later, the forecast models have been, well, awful, beyond a few days (and sometimes beyond a few hours), so this is a very low confidence forecast. However, many of the models have been indicating a period of stormy conditions centered around next Sunday and/or Monday. We’re going to keep the forecast very general for now, and hope that we have some more clarity by the time we get to the Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Sunday could be stormy, but the details are still fuzzy. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning sun, clouds return in the afternoon. High 30-37.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing late south of Boston, snow showers or freezing rain north and west. Low 22-29 during the evening, temperatures may rise after midnight.

Tuesday: Early clouds and lingering showers give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with some snow or rain showers possible. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a rain or snow shower. High 39-46.

Thursday: Cloudy with a few showers possible. High 40-47.

New Years Eve: Partly to mostly sunny. High 38-45.

New Years Day: Some early sun, then becoming cloudy. High 39-46.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of…..something. High 38-45.

Weekend Outlook: December 24-27, 2021

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Could we actually have a White Christmas across the area? It’s certainly a possibility.

Clouds will thicken up tonight as a weak storm system moves toward the region. That system will spread some light snow across the area Friday morning. It won’t be a big deal, with most places receiving a coating to an inch or two of snow. If you do have to work Friday morning, the commute could be a little slippery. We’ll have some clearing in the afternoon, but temperatures will stay chilly, so much of the snow will remain on the ground. The “official” definition of a White Christmas is 1″ or more of snow on the ground at 7am. Will that happen? It could in some spots, but even if there’s not 1″, the grass should still be white for many of us.

We’re not expecting much snow Friday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Another system quickly approaches for Christmas Day into Sunday morning. This one looks a bit milder, with some rain likely during the afternoon, possibly starting as some freezing rain or sleet from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. The rain won’t be that heavy, but as the system passes by Saturday night, colder air will fill in behind it, with a chance to light snow possible, again, mainly in southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. Some minor accumulations are possible, but again, nothing major is likely. We’ll clear out again for Sunday afternoon into Monday as high pressure builds back in.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, light snow develops before daybreak. Low 14-21.

Christmas Eve: Light snow ends early, some afternoon sunny breaks. Snow accumulation a coating to perhaps 2 inches in spots. High 30-37.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Christmas Day: Cloudy with showers developing, possibly starting as some freezing drizzle or sleet from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. High 36-43.

Saturday night: Showers may change back to wet snow, mainly across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. Low 27-34.

Sunday: Rain or snow showers end early, some sunny breaks in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 33-40.

Weekly Outlook: December 20-26, 2021

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“It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas”

Sure, there’s some snow on the ground in southern New Hampshire, but it won’t last too long, and the rest of us have bare ground. However, there is a chance we could have a White Christmas for parts of the region, depending on a potential storm system next weekend.

The week is starting on a very chilly note. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’re starting the week on a chilly note, in the wake of the system to moved through Saturday night. We’ll turn a little milder on Tuesday as high pressure slides eastward but another weak cold front will move through. How weak? Aside from a few clouds, you’ll barely notice it, except for the fact that it’ll turn a little cooler once again. A low pressure system will pass south and east of the region on Wednesday while a second one passes well to the north. The southern system may spread some light rain into parts of eastern Massachusetts, while the northern one has little impact other than some clouds. Some of the models show the possibility of the rain spreading farther inland, where some colder air could be in place. This would imply the potential for a little freezing rain from southern New Hampshire into parts of central Massachusetts. We’re not confident that will be the case, but do acknowledge that it is possible. High pressure builds in with drier and colder conditions on Thursday.

At this point, we feel compelled to remind you that the forecast models have really struggle beyond 2-3 days lately. So, the forecast for Christmas Weekend is highly uncertain, and you should treat it that way.

A weak disturbance may cross the region on Christmas Eve with some snow showers possible. Christmas Day is very uncertain at this point. Low pressure will head across the Great Lakes and into southern Canada, sending a warm front this way. The question is, does a secondary area of low pressure form along this front, and if so, where does it track, and also, how strong does it get? At this point, a scenario similar to the one we just had on Saturday seems plausible, with snow changing to a wintry mix and possibly rain inland, and rain possibly starting as some snow along the coast. Of course, this is all subject to change and some fine-tuning as we go through the next several days. An upper-level low will follow for Sunday, keeping some clouds and possibly a few lingering snow showers around.

Once again, there’s not much model agreement on our potential system for Christmas Day. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 30-37.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Tuesday: Sunshine through some high clouds. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, some light rain is possible in eastern Massachusetts, possibly a little freezing rain across the interior. High 35-42, except 43-50 across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 30-37.

Friday: Cloudy with some snow showers possible. High 36-43.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 39-46.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for a few snow showers. High 35-42.

Weekend Outlook: December 17-20,2021

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This shouldn’t be a surprise, since it’s mid-December, but it’s going to snow this weekend.

Temperatures are 15-25 degrees above normal this afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

After a mild day, a cold front will approach the region tonight, but only a few stray showers will accompany it. The front moves through early on Friday, but we’ll remain mild before a stronger push of colder air moves in late in the day as high pressure starts to build in across southern Canada. As we get to Saturday, low pressure will begin moving out of the Midwest and head towards New England, while a secondary area of low pressure develops south of New England. Exactly where this low tracks will help us determine how far north the warmer air will push, which is a key part of the forecast.

Where does the low track and how far north does the warm air penetrate? The models don’t agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Snow should develop across the region towards midday or a little thereafter. A very quick change to rain is expected across the South Coast, if it doesn’t start as rain there. The rain/snow line should quickly move northward during the rest of the afternoon and evening. The evening and overnight is where things get tricky. The warmer air likely only gets as far north as the Mass Pike or possibly Route 2. However, we’ll also have warmer air moving in aloft, which means a change to sleet or freezing rain is possible across northern Massachusetts and possibly southern New Hampshire, even if it doesn’t all change to plain rain. Any changeover will have a significant impact on snow amounts. As the low moves away early Sunday, a change back to snow is possible before everything winds down toward daybreak. High pressure then builds in with sunshine and cooler conditions for Sunday afternoon and Monday.

So, how much are we looking at? There are plenty of models out there showing a decent snowstorm, especially across the interior. We’re not buying it. We think they’re underestimating the mild air aloft. A quicker change to sleet and/or rain than what some of the models are showing seems more likely, especially the farther south and east you go. So, having said that, here’s our thinking:

Cape Cod/South Coast: A few flakes
Points south and east of Interstate-95: 1″ or less
Metro West/North Shore: 1-2″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 1-3″
Southern NH/Central MA: 3-5″
Central NH: 4-7″

The National Blend of Models is probably closest to our thinking for snowfall totals. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy, slight chance for a shower, some clearing late. Low 44-51.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy, high clouds start to stream back in late in the day. High 50-57.

Friday night: Increasing and thickening clouds. Low 28-35.

Saturday: Cloudy with snow developing during the afternoon, quickly changing to rain along the South Coast. High 35-42.

Saturday night: Light snow across southern New Hampshire, changing to sleet and freezing rain across northern Massachusetts, and plain rain elsewhere. Low 27-34.

Sunday: Rain or snow showers ending around daybreak, clearing in the afternoon. High 34-41.

Sunday night: Clear and colder. Low 12-19.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 27-34.

Weekly Outlook: December 13-19, 2021

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We’re in a fairly active weather pattern, but despite that, we’re not going to have too much going on for a good portion of this week.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, bringing us sunshine and mild temperatures today. A weak frontal system drops southward across the region on Tuesday with a few clouds, but it will bring slightly cooler temperatures. High pressure passes by to the north on Wednesday while that weak front starts to head northward again as a warm front. It will send some clouds into the region on Wednesday. Some showers are likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures may be near freezing for a while Wednesday evening into southern New Hampshire before the milder air moves back in, which means a period of icing or even some wet snow is possible as the precipitation overspreads the region.

Conditions could be iffy across southern New Hampshire for a while Wednesday evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday looks to be quite mild once again, with temperatures well into the 50s, possibly topping 60 in some locations. However, low pressure will be moving across southern Canada, dragging a cold front towards the area. Some showers may accompany the front as it moves through Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front on Friday with drier and cooler conditions.

Thursday looks like another mild afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Next weekend is where there is considerable uncertainty. The models have done rather poorly beyond 2 or 3 days recently, so looking ahead 6 days is a low-confidence forecast to begin with. However, the models seem to come up with a different solution nearly every run lately, and none of them agree with the others. A wave of low pressure may move toward the region for Saturday, but exactly where it goes (or if it even develops), is a giant question mark. Some models bring it well north of us, resulting in mild conditions and rain. Some bring in close to or over the region, resulting in a wintry mix, and some bring it south of the region, which could mean snow, or it stays too far south and we get no impacts at all. At this point, any of those solutions could be the right one. As Ozzy Osbourne famous sang “Don’t look at me for answers, don’t ask me, I don’t know.”

Ozzy was singing about this weekend’s forecast

Sunday looks to be dry and cool with high pressure building back in, but that could be impacted by what happens (or doesn’t happen) on Saturday. We should have more clarity on that when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Rain, snow, or nothing on Saturday? Depends which model you look at. We trust none of them. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Some clouds in the morning, then becoming sunny. High 44-51.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely at night, possibly starting as some freezing rain or wet snow across southern New Hampshire. High 39-46.

Thursday: Cloudy, breezy, and mild, any showers ending in the morning. High 52-59.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 47-54.

Saturday: Partly to mostly ________ with a chance of _______. (We’ll fill in the blanks later this week). High 37-44.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 33-40.

Weekend Outlook: December 10-13, 2021

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The next few days will not feel like mid-December, but the pattern won’t exactly be quiet.

Normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll have a cool evening with high pressure in control, but clouds will be streaming in ahead of a warm front. As that front moves through overnight, temperatures will start to rise after midnight, and we could see a few flurries or sprinkles. Friday will be milder with plenty of clouds, but aside from a few stray sprinkles or showers, the day should remain dry. As low pressure heads into southern Canada, it will drag a strong cold front toward the region. Ahead of that front, we’ll have some showers developing Friday night, continuing off-and-on through Saturday. The day won’t be a washout, but it won’t be completely dry either. That’s not the big story for the day though. South to southwest winds will be quite gusty, sending even warmer air into the region. Many locations will likely top 60 degrees once again. The front moves through overnight, with showers ending by daybreak. Skies clear out for Sunday and Monday with high pressure building in, but temperatures will still be near to even above normal for mid-December.

Saturday looks very mild, especially during the afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a flurry or a sprinkle. Low 23-30 during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower. High 42-49.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing late at night. Low 29-36 during the evening, temperatures rise again overnight.

Saturday: Cloudy, windy, and mild with occasional showers. High 57-64.

Saturday night: Cloudy and windy with more showers, possibly a thunderstorm, ending late at night. Low 34-41.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny, still breezy in the morning. High 40-47.

Sunday night: Clear. Low 28-35.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. breezy at times. High 46-53.