Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: February 10-16, 2020

Our weather pattern will remain fairly active this week, but it will be more wet than white. Winter’s not over though, and Mother Nature will have a reminder of that late in the week.

So far, this winter has been classified as mild using data from Blue Hill. For more info on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index, visit https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp (Image provided by the Midwest Regional Climate Center)

We start the week off with some rain showers this morning, and a few wet snow flakes across southern New Hampshire. This rain won’t be too heavy and won’t last too long, as a cold front will drop southward by early afternoon, bringing the precipitation to an end. We may even see some clearing late in the day, especially north of the Mass Pike, as high pressure tries to build in to the north. This is somewhat important, as it will bring some colder air into the region. Why is it important? That cold front will lift back northward as a warm front late Monday night into Tuesday. With that colder air in place, we may see some snow or sleet develop before daybreak, mainly away from the coast, before the warmer air moves back in Tuesday morning, changing everything back to rain, ending late in the day. This time the rain will be a little heavier as the associated low pressure system will be a bit stronger, but overall, we’re still not looking at a big storm.

Between now and Tuesday evening, most of the region will receive around half an inch of rain or less. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday with drier air, but it won’t last too long. We’ll still have a mild day (by February standards), but it’ll be a tad cooler than Monday or Tuesday. The next system moves in for Wednesday night and Thursday. Again, we’ll have some cold air in place to start, which likely means the precipitation starts as snow again. This time, we may even see some accumulations Thursday morning before a change to rain takes place. Again, we’re not expecting a big storm, but a few inches of snow could result in a messy Thursday morning commute, especially north and west of Boston.

High pressure builds in for Friday and Saturday with some much colder weather. Temperatures will actually be below normal, which hasn’t been a common occurrence this winter. As the high slides offshore, temperatures will moderate before yet another storm moves in, with some rain likely late Sunday and Sunday night.

Saturday morning could be quite chilly across the area. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Cloudy and breezy at times with showers ending from north to south during the afternoon. Some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon, mainly north of the Mass Pike. High 38-45.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers redeveloping south of the Mass Pike, possibly starting as snow or a wintry mix across the interior. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers likely, ending late in the day. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Sunshine filtered through some afternoon high clouds. Cloudy at night with snow developing, changing to a wintry mix and then rain south of the Mass Pike by daybreak. High 36-43.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with snow changing to a wintry mix and then rain during the morning from south to north, ending late in the day. High 38-45.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, and much colder, slight chance for some snow showers across the Outer Cape. High 23-30.

Saturday: Sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. High 24-31.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with rain developing in the afternoon. High 36-43.

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Heavy Rain/Snow, Winter Weather

Messy Thursday Coming Up

A pair of storm systems are heading our way, but for most of us, snow will be the least of our concerns. Your Thursday morning commute will be a mess however.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for much of the Northeast away from the coast, with Winter Storm Watches up north. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure will ride along a frontal system that is stalled out south of New England tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure is in place to the north, bringing some colder air into the area. As the precipitation shield ahead of the low moves in after midnight, it will fall in the form of snow across most of the area, except along the South Coast, where it will be mainly rain with some sleet mixed in. This snow won’t last too long though, as warmer air will be moving in aloft. This will change the snow to sleet and then freezing rain from south to north as the morning progresses. We’re not expecting much snow accumulation, but the combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain will make a mess out of the morning commute.

The first part of the storm could produce a decent amount of sleet from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The warmer air eventually pushes in at the surface by early afternoon for most of us, changing everything to plain rain. Across southern New Hampshire, things could get tricky. Temperatures may not get much above freezing, or even above freezing at all, which would keep the freezing rain going, resulting in very slippery conditions. The precipitation should taper off by late afternoon, with only some drizzle or freezing drizzle through the evening and the first part of the overnight.

While we deal with a wintry mix, severe weather is expected across much of the Southeast on Thursday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

This brings us to the 2nd part of our double whammy. The storm that is producing severe weather across the Gulf Coast today will head towards Southern New England on Friday. Rain will redevelop after daybreak, and it could be heavy for a while during the morning. This will have some impact on the Friday morning commute, but not to the extent of the wintry mix on Thursday. Across southern New Hampshire, we may have some more significant problems though. We may still have cold air in place at the surface, which could lead to more freezing rain and sleet as the heavier precipitation moves back in. If the precipitation is heavier enough, it could drag some of the warmer air aloft down to the surface, changing everything to plain rain, but the Friday morning commute could be a mess along I-93 and US-3 north of the Massachusetts border.

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, maybe even heavier, are possible across the region between now and Friday evening. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As the low moves across Southern New England, places south of the center of the low, mainly Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, will see temperatures jump into the 40s or even the 50s. However, as the low passes by, colder air will quickly move in both at the surface and aloft. This will allow the precipitation to change to snow from northwest to southeast. The cold air will be moving in as the precipitation comes to an end though, which will limit any accumulations.

The High-Resolution NAM model shows the progression of our double-barreled storm and the variety of precipitation it will produce. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

If you’re a skier, you’ll be happy, as this storm will be mainly snow and sleet up north, with significant accumulations possible in ski country.

Many locations up north could see 6-12 inches of snow or more between now and Saturday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The pattern we’re in will be active for a while, with storm systems coming in every 2-3 days for the next week or two. Some of these will contain wintry precipitation, it is February after all.

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Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: February 3-9, 2020

Yesterday was Groundhog Day and also the end of football season, but today brings us a sign that Winter will be over soon and Spring is right around the corner. It’s Truck Day! The Red Sox equipment truck leaves Fenway today to begin the drive down the coast on I-95, eventually heading over to I-75 to arrive in Fort Myers, Florida later this week. Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training a week from tomorrow. As for the weather, we’ve got a Spring preview today, but the rest of the week won’t be as pleasant.

Sick of winter? Today is Red Sox Truck Day! Spring training isn’t far behind. Image provided by Boston Herald.

A warm front will cross the region this morning, with high pressure briefly building in behind it. There could be a little patchy fog this morning, but sunshine should develop, with high temperatures getting into the 40s, maybe even topping 50 in some spots. Unfortunately, today is the pick of the week. A storm system will approach on Tuesday, with some showers likely. As colder air settles in behind the system, a change to wet snow is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends. There might be enough to coat the ground in some spots, but that’s about it.

Temperatures should get well into the 40s across the region this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As our storm pulls away, another one quickly follows as the pattern starts to get more active. Precipitation ahead of this system moves in Wednesday night and with colder air in place it will likely start as snow. Some accumulations are likely, but they should be mostly light to moderate the farther north you go, with a change to sleet and then rain from south to north Thursday morning. It’s a little too early for specifics, but if this threat continues, we’ll have a special blog post before the storm with amounts. The Thursday morning commute will likely be impacted by this storm.

We get a brief break Thursday afternoon, then another storm heads our way for Thursday night and Friday. Right now, this one looks like mostly rain, and probably quite a bit of rain, but that is not etched in stone just yet. While we’re expecting it to be quite mild with the storm passing near or just north of the region, thus putting most of the region in the warm sector, there is still some uncertainty in exactly where the storm tracks. The farther south and east it tracks, the better the chance cooler temperatures and for some snow across the interior, especially well north and west of Boston.

There is quite a bit of disagreement among the models as to temperatures around here on Friday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather,

Our active pattern looks to continue into the weekend, as another system moves through, with some snow possible Sunday. There’s plenty of uncertainty on this one as well, so stay tuned.

Monday: Some patchy fog early, then becoming partly sunny. High 41-48.

Monday night: Increasing clouds. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. High 38-45.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers possibly changing to snow showers, mainly north and west of Boston. Low 29-36.

Wednesday: Snow or rain showers end in the morning, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon. Snow redevelops late at night. High 35-42.

Thursday: Cloudy with snow in the morning, changing to over to sleet and freezing rain, then all rain during the afternoon. Rain may be heavy at night. High 35-42.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with rain tapering off to showers during the afternoon, ending in the evening. High 44-51, except 36-43 from southern Maine and the NH Seacoast across to central NH.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. High 29-36.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. High 33-40.

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Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: January 27-February 2, 2020

This week’s outlook is a lot like last week’s. Dry weather during the week thanks to a large area of high pressure, then questions for the weekend.

For Monday through Friday, we’ve got a large area of high pressure in control. We’ll still have plenty of clouds around on Monday as an upper-level low pressure system moves across the Northeast. Clouds may linger into Tuesday, and with a northerly flow, we could even see some ocean-effect snow showers across the Outer Cape late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Not much accumulation is expected, but a few spots on the Outer Cape could see an inch or so. Wednesday through Friday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies, with chilly temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, and some moderation on Friday.

Some ocean-effect snow is expected across the Outer Cape Tuesday night. Image provided by WeatherBell.

That brings us to next weekend. Once again, many of the models are showing the potential for a storm to impact the region. Some of the models even have it as a powerful storm. Once again, they aren’t anywhere close to agreement on the track of this system though. Some have a storm so far offshore that it will have little to no impact on us. Some have it so close that we get moderate to heavy snow inland with rain across southeastern New England. Others have it just far enough offshore to impact only areas south of Boston. On top of that, many of these models haven’t been consistent from one run to the next.So, once again, we’ll just wait and see what develops. If it looks like it could be a threat, we’ll have a special blog post later in the week.

The various members of the ECMWF Ensemble show that wide variety in forecasts for the potential storm system off the East Coast next weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: More clouds than sunshine. High 38-45.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, except mostly cloudy across Cape Cod with some late-day snow showers possible. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, some snow showers are possible across Cape Cod. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 31-38.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 30-37.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 36-43.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain. High 36-43.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain. High 37-44.

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Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: January 20-26, 2020

We’ve actually got a quiet week coming up. The weekend might not be quiet, but we don’t have much to worry about before then.

The week is starting off on a chilly note with wind chills near or below zero this morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

A large area of high pressure will build in and remain in control through Friday. That means we’ll have dry and chilly conditions through Wednesday, but as the high slides off to the east, temperatures will moderate for Thursday and Friday, likely to above normal levels for late January. That should allow the snow from Saturday’s storm to melt for the most part. The only exception to the dry forecast is across Cape Cod, especially the Outer Cape, where some ocean-effect snow showers are possible today and again on Tuesday.

Next weekend, things get complicated again. We’ll have a low pressure system moving towards the Great Lakes and a secondary area of low pressure developing near the Mid-Atlantic states. Some of the models show an upper-level low pressure area moving toward the East Coast at the same time, which would slow down or even stall out that developing surface low. The forecast will obviously depend on the development and track of that low, and at this point, it’s still 5-6 days away, so we’re not even going to attempt to nail down any details. We’ll just say that the potential is there for a long-duration storm that could produce snow or rain (or both). Obviously, the best chance for snow would be farther inland. Assuming this storm develops and looks like it will have a significant impact on the region, we’ll do a special blog post later in the week.

The European (ECMWF), Canadian (GDPS), and American (GFS) models all have different ideas about our potential storm’s location and impacts next Sunday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather,

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, except plenty of clouds across Cape Cod with a few snow showers possible, mainly across the Outer Cape. High 21-28.

Monday night: Clear and cold. Low 8-15, possibly a little colder across southern New Hampshire and into the Merrimack Valley.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, chance for a few snow showers across Cape Cod, mainly the Outer Cape. High 22-29.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 10-17.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, not as cold. High 30-37.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, milder. High 37-44.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 38-45.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain. High 34-41.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain. High 36-43.

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Heavy Rain/Snow, Winter Weather

Snow Makes a Return

We’ve got a significant snowstorm on the way to the region for Saturday night. Hang on, we’re being told that even though the last week or so has felt like January in North Carolina, we’re still in Massachusetts, not North Carolina. So, let’s start over. We’ve got some snow on the way for Saturday night, but it shouldn’t be a big deal by New England standards.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisoies are in effect for much of the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

A cold and very dry airmass is in place across New England to start Saturday, thanks to a high pressure area moving across Northern New England. Temperatures are starting the day in the single numbers and teens, with dewpoints near or below zero. Meanwhile, a storm system will be moving out of the Great Lakes and heading for Northern New England later today. That will be out weather-maker for tonight and early Sunday.

Saturday is starting on a very chilly note across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll see high clouds start streaming in by midday, and they’ll thcken up during the afternoon. It’ll take some time for the air to moisten up, but it will eventually, and snow will start falling right around dinnertime for most of us, a little earlier to the west. This will be a fast-moving storm, with the snow actually tapering off and ending around midnight. It looks like any rain/snow line will be confined to southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. After midnight, a little freezing drizzle or some flurries are possible as the system starts to pull away, but the accumulating snow should be all done.

Our storm quickly moves across the region this evening and tonight. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The snow could fall at a decent clip during the evening hours, with some places possibly seeing an inch per hour. So, if you’tre going to be out and about, take it slow and drive carefully. How much snow are we expecting?

Cape Cod/South Coast: 1-3″
Southeastern Mass/I-95 corridor (Boston/Providence): 2-4″
MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 3-5″
Southern NH/Southern Maine: 3-6″
Central NH: 4-8″

The High-Resolution NAM model is probably closest to our thinking on snowfall with this system. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Behind the storm, Sunday will be a nice day, with developing sunshine and temperatures in the 30s to near 40, which will help melt some of the new snow. You’d better get out and clean up the driveway though, because everything is going to freeze solid Sunday night as another arctic airmass settles into the region. Temperatures may not get back above freezing until Wednesday afternoon, possibly not until Thursday, but a warmup is expected for the end of the week.

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Weekly Outlook, Winter Weather

Weekly Outlook: January 13-19, 2020

We hope you enjoyed the warm weekend, because in case you forgot, it’s January. Don’t worry, Mother Nature will remind you as the week goes on.

Record highs were smashed across the Northeast again on Sunday, but a cold front moved through during the afternoon, ending the warmth. Temperatures will still be near to above normal for the next few days, but the 60s and 70s are gone. High pressure builds into Quebec today, but there will be plenty of clouds around thanks to northeast winds off of the ocean. In fact, we could see a few flurries or snow showers, especially along the coast from Plymouth County up to the New Hampshire Seacoast. Temperatures will be mainly in the 30s, so yes, you’ll need to find your winter clothes again. As the high slides off to the east, temperatures will start to moderate again on Tuesday, but a weak system will also be moving in. This system will produce a little light rain Tuesday night, maybe mixed with some snow from the Merrimack Valley into Southern New Hampshire.

The High Resolution NAM model shows the potential for coastal snow showers today, and then the system for late Tuesday as well. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

Behind that system we’ll have some clearing on Wednesday with mild temperatures, but clouds quickly come back late in the day ahead of yet another system. This system also doesn’t look like a big deal, but it could produce a little more in the way of precipitation late Wednesday night into Thursday, with a better chance for some light snow mainly north of the Mass Pike.

Once that system pulls away, gusty winds will usher much colder air into the region for Thursday night and Friday. You’ll be wishing for the 60s and 70s again, as temperatures will likely stay in the 20s on Friday, with wind chills in the single digits and teens.

Wind chils will start the day on Friday in the single numbers and won’t get that much higher in the afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Friday night, low pressure will be starting to move out of the Ohio Valley towards the East Coast, and it will likely impact us from Saturday into Sunday. Right now, most of the models have the system track very close to or right across southern New England, but the timing is still in question (along with many other aspects of this potential storm). It’s still 5-6 days away, so things can and will change, but obviously we’ll need to keep an eye on this. Right now, the models are showing the potential for snow, changing to rain at least south of the Mass Pike, possibly farther north. We’re not going to get into many more details than that at this point, but suffice to say, if you have plans on Saturday, keep an eye on the forecast, as the potential exists for a snowstorm, possibly a significant one. Behind the storm, windy and even colder weather settles in on Sunday, and remains in place for much of next week.

Temperatures look like they’ll be well below normal next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for some snow showers or flurries along the coast. High 34-41.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely in the evening, possibly mixed with snow from the Merrimack Valley into Southern New Hampshire, some partial clearing possible late at night. Evening low 31-38, then temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, but clouds start to return late in the day. High 42-49.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy and windy with a chance for showers during the morning, possibly some snow showers from southern New Hampshire into northern Massachusetts. High 38-45.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, and colder. High 21-28.

Saturday: Cloudy and windy with a chance of snow, possibly changing to rain, especially south of the Mass Pike. High 28-35 north of the Mass Pike, 36-43 south of the Mass Pike.

Sunday: Snow or snow showers ending early, then clouds give way to some afternoon sunny breaks, windy. High 27-34.

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