Weekly Outlook: May 21-28, 2018

Can you believe that this coming weekend is Memorial Day Weekend? That’s right, the traditional start of summer is just about here. It seems like just yesterday we were shoveling snow.  None of that this week, just weather that is fairly typical of late May.

GFS 50-STATES USA Mass & CT & RI 2-m Dew Point 21
Dewpoints will only be in the 30s and 40s this afternoon? It doesn’t get much drier than that at this time of year. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The week starts off with a terrific day as high pressure builds in. We’ll have sunshine, warm temperatures and low humidity. What more could you want in late May? Clouds move in at night though as a weak system moves towards the region. This will spread in some showers on Tuesday, but the day shouldn’t be a washout. High pressure returns on Wednesday with partial sunshine, and slightly cooler temperatures. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Thursday and Friday with high pressure in control once again.

This brings us to the part of the forecast that most of you are interested in – Memorial Day Weekend. Unfortunately, it’s also the part where uncertainty reigns right now. Low pressure will pass by to the north, bring a frontal system towards the region. This will bring in clouds and a few showers on Saturday. Once again, we’re not expecting a washout, so don’t go cancelling any plans just yet. That front stalls out somewhere near the region, which has a big impact on the Sunday forecast. We’ll likely have more showers, but the temperature forecast will be highly dependent on where the front stalls out. If it stalls out across central or northern New England, we’ll still have temperatures in the 70s, possibly even the 80s if we can get some sunshine. However, if it stalls out near or just south of Southern New England, we may get stuck in the 60s or even 50s on Sunday. We’re leaning towards the milder side right now, but wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Sunday ends up a cool, damp day.

GFS 50-STATES USA Mass & CT & RI 2-m Maximum Temperature 144 (2)
Could some parts of the region reach 90 degrees on Saturday? At least 1 model is showing the potential. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As for Memorial Day itself, things get even more complicated. The front should lift northward, resulting in a warm and humid day. We’re fairly confident on that point right now. However, we’ll likely have more showers maybe even some thunderstorms. The fly in the ointment is some tropical moisture that will likely be flowing up the Eastern Seaboard. For quite some time now, at least one model has been trying to show the development of a tropical system in the western Caribbean which would then head towards the Gulf Coast or Florida. We’ve ignored that for a while because only one model was showing it, and it always seemed to be about two weeks out never any closer than that. Well, now it’s getting closer, and other models are showing something similar. No, we’re not expecting a tropical storm or hurricane to come up the East Coast. We’re still not completely convinced that anything will actually develop. However, we are fairly confident that the upper-level pattern will allow the moisture to flow from the Caribbean right up the East Coast. As a result, we could be looking at some locally heavy rain on Memorial Day. Keep in mind, this is still 7 days away, and a lot can change, so don’t go altering any plans just yet. If the system doesn’t develop/move out of the Caribbean, or if the front lifts much farther north, we could end up with a nice day with little to no rainfall. We’ll keep tabs on this during the week to see how things start to develop.

850td.conus
Upper-level winds are expected to blow from south to north, transporting plenty of moisture from the Caribbean up the East Coast next weekend. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 73-80.

Monday night: Increasing clouds. Low 50-57.

Tuesday: Cloudy and cooler with a chance of showers. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a few lingering showers possible. Low 51-58.

Wednesday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. High 74-81.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 69-76, cooler along the coast.

Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Clouds start to filter in late in the day. High 79-86.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a few showers. High 78-85.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with more showers possible. High 70-77.

Memorial Day: Cloudy and breezy with a chance for more showers, some of which could be heavy. High 71-78.

Weekly Outlook: May 14-20, 2018

Billy Joel was right – there’s a storm front coming. And going. And coming. And going. Actually, it’s more of a stationary front that will ripple north and south as waves of low pressure ride along it this week. When it heads north, we’ll be warm. When it heads south, we’ll be cooler. There will also be periods of showers and thunderstorms. Let’s see if we can sort of the timing of these waves.

gfs.500th.conus.2018051400-loop
A general west-to-east flow is expected across the Northeast this week, which is why we’re not expecting any big storms. We’ll just have waves of low pressure riding along a frontal boundary every few days, giving us some bouts of unsettled weather, Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ll start the week off with that front off to our south. However, it’s far enough to the south that we’ll get plenty of sunshine, so temperatures will actually be fairly mild. In fact, away from the coastline, temperatures should get into the 70s. By Tuesday, however, things change. Our first wave of low pressure heads toward the region. This will lift the front northward, bringing us warm and humid conditions, but also clouds, showers, and possibly some thunderstorms.

fema02_swody2
Some thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday, but the best chance for any severe weather will be off to our southwest – in the Mid-Atlantic states. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The showers may linger into Wednesday morning before the front slips southward again. That means Wednesday could be another cloudy and cool day across the region, with some sunshine possible in the afternoon. The front heads far enough southward again on Thursday to allow for plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures once again.

9-km ECMWF USA Cities Mass & CT & RI 2-m Maximum Temperature 108
Thursday looks like the pick of the week right now. Sunshine and temperatures well into the 70s away from the coast, possibly even some lower 80s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

This brings us to Friday. Another wave of low pressure will move towards the region from the west. However, clouds will stream in ahead of it, and this will keep temperatures on the cool side again. This wave will bring us showers late Friday into Saturday, some of which could be heavy. As the wave heads to our north and west on Saturday, it should lift that front northward again, allowing the milder air back in, despite the cloudcover and showers.

The big question now is – what does Sunday bring? Low pressure will pass well to our north and west, so it will eventually drag a cold front across the region. Right now, it looks like that cold front will hold off until Sunday night or even Monday. So, we should be fairly warm. We’re fairly confident in that. It’s the other part of the equation that we’re not so sure about. We could stay most cloudy with occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. We could also break out with some sunshine, and have a warm and humid day with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. At this point, we’ll lean towards the latter scenario, but if you’ve got any outdoor plans, just keep an eye on updated forecasts during the week.

Monday: Sunshine filtered through some afternoon high clouds, especially south of Boston. High 69-76, except 61-68 right along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.

Monday night: Clouds gradually thicken up. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine and breezy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83 inland, 68-75 along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Showers ending in the morning, mainly south of Boston, some sunshine develops in the afternoon, especially across southern NH and northern MA. High 57-64, coolest right along the east coast.

Thursday: Sunshine and some high clouds again. High 74-81, cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.

Friday:  Increasing clouds, showers possible late in the day, more likely at night. High 60-67, cooler right along the coastline.

Saturday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with showers likely. High 60-67.

Sunday: Partly sunny and breezy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 70-77.

download
Satellite loop of the disturbance in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Monday morning. Loop provided by NOAA.

Finally, even though hurricane season doesn’t start officially until June 1, we’ve got an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico that is being watched for development. Right now, it’s a weak disturbance that is interacting with an upper-level low pressure system. It’ll drift northward over the next few days, bringing some heavy rain to Florida and parts of the Southeast. It could developing into tropical depression or a subtropical system, but that is not likely at this time. By late in the week, it should move inland over the eastern Gulf Coast, and the moisture should ride up the Appalachians. This could give us some heavier rainfall over the weekend and into early next week as that cold front moves through.

Weekly Outlook: May 7-13, 2018

Now that we’re heading into the middle of May, we’re finally getting some typical Spring weather for New England. Nothing too extreme – some mild days, some cool days, some sunshine, some rain. No snow though – that *should* be done for the year.

MonthTDeptNRCC (1)
May has started off on a very warm note across much of the Northeast. Temperatures over the next few days will be much closer to normal, even below normal for a day or two. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The week starts off with high pressure building in on Monday, giving us sunshine and cool conditions. Tuesday should be a decent day as well, but there’s the potential for it to be not so great. Low pressure should remain south of the region, but it may be just far enough north to spread some clouds in, at least to the South Coast. If the high pressure area to the north builds in enough, we’ll stay sunny and start to warm up again. Wednesday should also be sunny and mild with high pressure in control.

By Thursday, things start to change again. A cold front will be approaching from the west. Clouds will stream in ahead of the front during the day on Thursday, with some showers likely late Thursday into early Friday as the front moves across the region. Neither day will be a washout, but you may need an umbrella, especially late Thursday and Thursday night if you’re heading out.

High pressure returns on Friday with cooler conditions once again. Mothers Day weekend is a big question mark at this point. Low pressure will head towards the region, with a warm front ahead of it, and a cold front behind it. The timing of these fronts is in doubt, which has significant implications on the forecast. One model brings the warm front through early Saturday, with a mild Saturday, (below left) and a very warm Sunday ahead of the cold front, with showers in the afternoon. Another model keeps Saturday quite chilly and damp (below right), with the warm front not moving through until early Sunday, and the cold front waiting until early Tuesday before it moves through. Based on our experience, the more likely scenario is the later timing. So, even though our forecast right now is for a chilly and damp Saturday, keep in mind that conditions could be significantly better than what we’re forecasting right now.

Monday: Morning clouds gradually give way to partial sunshine. High 58-65, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 41-48.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 63-70, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 42-49.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 68-75.

Thursday: Increasing clouds, showers possible late in the day and at night. High 66-73.

Friday: Early clouds, then sunshine returns in the afternoon. High 65-72.

Saturday: Cloudy and cool with a chance of showers. High 53-60.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for more showers. High 63-70.

Weekly Outlook: April 30-May 6, 2018

Here at StormHQ, we love the 80s. The music, the movies, everything. We can’t get enough of it. If you love the 80s, then you’re going to love this week’s forecast.

The week starts off on a rather “blah” note. An upper-level low pressure system will move across the Northeast today, giving us clouds, occasional showers, and cool temperatures. In other words, the same weather that we’ve had for the most part for the past 6 weeks. But, after that, things are going to change – for the better.

NAM-WRF 3-km New England Snowfall 24
Yes, the airmass across the Northeast today is cold enough for some snow across the higher elevations of eastern New York and western New England. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The upper-level low pressure system pulls away on Tuesday, and high pressure starts to build in at the surface. That means we’ll have some sunshine develop, and temperatures will turn milder. This brings us to Wednesday.

Remember back in the winter, when you were dressed in several layers, had an IV of hot chocolate, and had to go out and shovel your driveway again? Yeah, that sucked, didn’t it? Remember what you were dreaming about then? Well, that arrives on Wednesday. With high pressure in control we’ll have sunshine, low humidity and with gusty southwest winds, temperatures should get into the upper 70s and 80s away from the South Coast and Cape Cod. Yes, we’re serious, and don’t call us Shirley. Thursday will be nearly as good as Wednesday. We’ll have a few more clouds, and a slight chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but temperatures should again reach the upper 70s and 80s away from the South Coast.

Friday is when things start to transition again. Oh, it’ll still be warm, but we’ll have plenty of clouds as a cold front starts to approach from the west. That front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Behind the front, skies will slowly clear out on Saturday, but it should remain on the warm side, with temperatures still getting into the 70s in many spots. High pressure builds in on Sunday, with sunshine returning, along with more seasonable temperatures. That means we’ll have highs in the 60s. That might be tough to take after a few days of 70s and 80s, but it’s certainly better than the 40s we dealt with a few weeks ago.

gfs_t2max_boston_13 (1)
If you love the 80s, then Wednesday is looking like an absolutely fantastic day across the region, since most of us will get into the 80s. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and cool with some showers likely. High 47-54.

Monday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 37-44.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, milder. High 62-69, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and warm. High 78-85, cooler right along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.

Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 79-86, cooler right along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 74-81.

Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 62-69.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Outlook: April 23-29, 2018

Who’s ready for some spring weather finally? OK, so the answer is “everyone”. Guess what? It’s here! Oh, the week won’t be all sunshine and warm temperatures, but some spring better is better than none, right?

We start the week out with high pressure bringing sunshine and warm temperatures to the region today. Tuesday will also be warm, but the sunshine will disappear as clouds start to stream in ahead of a low pressure system moving towards the region. This brings us to Wednesday. It’ll be a cool and damp day, but hey, that’s better than snow, right?

500wh.conus
It’s only temporary (today into Tuesday), but that stubborn upper-level trough of low pressure that’s kept us cool for so long will be replaced by an upper-level ridge of high pressure. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The system pulls away on Thursday and skies clear out again, with temperatures getting back close to normal for late April. Friday starts off nice, but another system sends more clouds in, with showers returning late in the day and at night. Again, would you rather have snow? We didn’t think so.

That system pulls away quickly, setting us up for a “meh” weekend. Not great, not bad, just “meh”. With an upper-level trough of low pressure moving in aloft, and high pressure at the surface, it should be mostly dry, but we’ll still have plenty of clouds popping up, with a shower or two possible, but nothing widespread or heavy. Temperatures will be back below normal, but below normal in late April is a lot better than below normal in late February.

ndfd_t2max_climo_massachusetts_3
Normal high temperatures in late April are within a degree or two of 60. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: To quote the great Harris K. Telemacher: “”I’ll have a half double decaffeinated half-caf, with a twist of lemon”. No wait, that’s not the right quote. What we meant was: “Sun! Sun! Sun! Sun! Sun!” High 57-64, coolest right along the coast.

Monday night: Clear skies in the evening, high clouds start to filter in late at night. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Clouds thicken up during the day. High 60-67, cooler along the South Coast.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers developing. Low 42-49.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with occasional showers. High 50-57.

Thursday: A few lingering showers early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 57-64.

Friday: Some early sun, then clouds come back in the afternoon. Showers likely at night. High 60-67.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 58-65, coolest along the coast.

Sunday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower during the afternoon. High 54-61.

GFS 50-STATES USA Mass & CT & RI 2-m Maximum Temperature 240
At least one model thinks some really mild weather could be heading our way as we flip the calendar to May. Will it happen? Time will tell. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Weekly Outlook: April 16-22, 2018

Blah. Yuck. Ugh. Take your pick. Any of those words could describe the weather coming up this week. In case you can’t tell, it’s going to suck. In other words, a typical April week in New England.

The week starts off with low pressure heading into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front towards the region. There may still be some sleet and freezing rain to start the day, especially north and west of Boston, but everything should go over to plain rain during the morning. From late morning through much of the afternoon it’s going rain, sometimes rather heavily. The heavy rain will be accompanied by gusty winds as well. This will make for a rather miserable day for both runners and spectators at the Boston Marathon. The traditional 11am Red Sox game was wisely postponed. This will be the first Patriots Day without a Red Sox game at Fenway since 1995. That year, there was no game because millionaires and billionaires couldn’t figure out how to split billions of dollars, and the millionaires went on strike. The last time the Patriots Day game was postponed due to weather was in 1984.

Orioles42015 002
Patriots Day in 2015 was a pretty cool and damp day, but the Red Sox did manage to get the game against the Orioles in. Maybe they should stop playing the Orioles on Patriots Day.

 

Temperatures will also be fairly tricky on Monday. Warmer air is going to try to push in from the south, but how far north it gets is a big question mark. Some models bring the milder air as far south as southern New Hampshire, some don’t get it past the Mass Pike. Where the warm air does move in, temperatures should get into the 50s, maybe even the lower 60s. Where it doesn’t, they’ll stay in the 40s, perhaps even the upper 30s.

hires_t2max_boston_25
How far north will the milder air get on Monday? We’re thinking probably not past Route 2, similar to the High Resolution NAM is showing. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The rain ends Monday night, but an upper-level low pressure system settles into the Northeast for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep plenty of clouds along with cool conditions in place across the region. A few showers are also possible as well, mainly on Tuesday.

The upper-level low moves out on Thursday, but another surface storm system heads towards the region. That means more widespread showers for Thursday into Friday. This system may take its time pulling away, and cooler air will filter in behind it. Don’t be surprised if we see some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain on Friday, especially across southern New Hampshire. The showers should end early Saturday, but with another upper-level low moving in, clouds and cool conditions should remain in place. High pressure finally starts to build in on Sunday, with sunshine returning.

9-km ECMWF USA Surface undefined undefined 120
Don’t be surprised if you see some snowflakes on Friday, as the ECMWF model is showing, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Any lingering sleet or freezing rain early changing to plain rain. Rain may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Windy. High 42-49 north of Route 2, 50-57 south of Route 2.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine with a few showers possible. High 45-52.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 29-36.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for another shower. High 47-54.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers developing. High 45-52.

Friday: Cloudy with more showers, possibly mixing with some wet snow at times, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 43-50.

Saturday: Showers taper off early, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 48-55.

Sunday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 52-59.

 

Weekly Outlook: April 9-15, 2018

Since it seems like winter doesn’t want to end, a question we’ve been asked lately is “when is it going to finally warm up”? If you believe some of the guys on TV or the Facebook Forecasters,  then the answer is “the end of this week.” However, we’re not so sure about that. Not yet, at least.

MonthTDeptNRCC
The first week of April has seen temperatures average several degrees below normal across the Northeast. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center

We start the week off with an area of high pressure keeping us dry on Monday. Tuesday will feature plenty of clouds along with some snow or rain showers as a weak system moves across the region. High pressure returns on Wednesday, with dry and cool conditions once again. The end of the week is where things get iffy.

On Thursday, low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will send a warm front towards the region. Some showers are likely ahead of this warm front, meaning Thursday will be a gray and possibly damp day. If the warm front does come through, and that’s far from certain right now, a cold front will move through at night as that low pressure system passes north of the region. That cold front will likely stall out south of New England. This leads to our next problem. Does it head northward again as a warm front?

14-km EPS Global KNZW SOUTH WEYMOUTH 15-day Daily Temperature
How uncertain is the late-week warmth? Using this chart which is based on the ECMWF Ensemble forecast for South Weymouth, MA, the high temperature on Saturday could be anywhere from 41 to 76, with a mean of 62. Sunday is nearly as bad with a range of 38 to 70 with as mean of 57. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Another storm system will move into the Midwest towards the end of the week. Some of the models are trying to have that system lift the front northward again, bringing very mild air into the region later Friday into Saturday. This is certainly possible. However, we’ll have plenty of cold air in place to the north, plus some very cold water off to our east. If you’ve lived here long enough, you know that warm weather doesn’t last too long around here, especially in April. Adding to our doubts is the fact that the models have the storm pass north and west of Chicago. A noted colleague once pointed out to us that with storms passing north and west of Chicago, warm fronts have plenty of trouble making northward progress around here, as they become too far removed from the main system, and lose the push that they need to head northward. This is more obvious in the winter, but since we’re still in a winter-type pattern, we’re taking note of that observation.

Finally, we get to Sunday. This is where things REALLY get complicated. If our warm front comes through, it’ll likely start heading southward again later Saturday as colder air tries to push back in. This could set us up for a VERY chilly Sunday. At the time this forecast was written early Monday morning, one model kept temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s all day Sunday, another kept temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s, while a third model had temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s (see maps below). So, there’s plenty of uncertainty. Meanwhile, another cold front will be approaching from the west, and low pressure will be riding out of the Gulf of Mexico along that front. That means that clouds and a few showers are likely. As the low pressure area gets nearer, we could be in for a period of heavy rain, but the timing of that, as well as the actual cold front, are still big question marks. The heavy rain could move in for Sunday night, it might move in Monday morning, or it might hold off until Monday night. Since next Monday is Patriots Day, this makes a BIG difference. We’ll know more on that later in the week.

 

Monday: Sunshine dimmed by thickening clouds in the afternoon. High 40-47.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with some rain or snow showers possible. High 41-48.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 47-54.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 51-58.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. High 57-64, cooler along the South Coast.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, and warm. High 60-67, cooler along the South Coast. Temperatures may drop sharply in the afternoon from southern New Hampshire into eastern Massachusetts.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy, more showers possible, especially late in the day. High 45-52, possibly milder south of Boston.

Weekly Outlook: April 2-8, 2018

We’ve got a lot of different types of weather coming up this week, starting with some snow today, and that’s not an April Fools joke.

The week actually starts off with some light snow for parts of the area. A storm system will pass south of New England today, with a period of light snow likely during the morning, mainly south of Route 2. This will not be a big deal, as there are several factors working against this system.

  1. It will be fast-moving, with snow moving in around the morning rush hour and ending around midday.
  2. Temperatures will be near or above freezing when most of the precipitation falls.
  3. Since it’s early April,, the sun angle is high enough that it’ll be tough to accumulate on paved surfaces unless it comes down very hard.
  4. Dry air in place at the start will evaporate some of the snow before it hits the ground.

Add up all those factors, and you don’t much snow accumulation. In fact, we’re only expecting 1-2 inches on grassy surfaces, mainly from Boston southward. A few places could pick up 3 inches, but that’s about it. Not a big deal.

snku_acc.us_ne (1)
The GFS snowfall forecast is probably closest to our thinking for today’s snow. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Skies clear out during the afternoon, but clouds quickly come back in at night as a warm front starts to approach the region on Tuesday. We’ll have rain moving back in during the afternoon and evening, possibly mixed with a little wet snow in a few spots. The warm front comes through overnight, with temperatures rising after midnight. Wednesday will be a cloudy and mild day, but a cold front will be approaching from the west. This will produce more showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. Temperatures drop quickly behind the front Wednesday evening.

9-km ECMWF USA Surface Mass & CT & RI 2-m Maximum Temperature 72
Wednesday is looking like a mild day before the cold front arrives with showers in the afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

This brings us to the most important day of the week – Thursday. Why is Thursday the most important day? It’s the Red Sox home opener at Fenway! Last year, the opener was on April 3, against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and it was, partly cloudy, breezy, and 48 degrees at game time. This year, it’ll be partly cloudy and breezy once again, but it’s probably not going be 48 degrees at game time. We’ll probably need to shave about 3 or 4 degrees off of that. If you have tickets, dress like you’re going to a Pats game in November.

Hyannis

Clouds stream back in later in the day as another weak system approaches. This system will bring in some light rain or snow Friday into early Saturday, but again, this will not be a big deal, with little to no accumulation expected. High pressure then builds back in later on Saturday and into Sunday. Having said that, some of the models are showing the potential for a storm system to impact the region on Sunday. We’re not ready to jump on board with this just yet, but it would not be unprecedented. Most of us remember the April Fools Day storm from 1997, but how many people remember the April 6-7, 1982 storm? Temperatures stayed in the teens and 20s during that storm. We also had back-to-back storms April 7-8 and April 9-10 in 1996, which dropped a combined 8-20 inches of snow on the area. If this storm starts looking more likely, we’ll let you know later in the week.

19820406-19820407-3.35
Snowfall totals from the April 6-7, 1982 snowstorm. Image provided by NOAA.

Monday: Light snow likely in the morning, mainly south of Route 2, then some sunshine may return in the afternoon. High 39-46.

Monday night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming cloudy again after midnight. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and breezy with occasional showers. Low 36-43 in the evening, then temperatures rise after midnight.

Wednesday: Windy and mild with more showers possible, maybe even a rumble of thunder. High 57-64, coolest along the South Coast.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. High 39-46.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some light rain or snow possible, especially late in the day and at night. High 44-51.

Saturday: Chance of light rain or snow early, then becoming partly sunny. High 37-44.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 40-47.

Weekly Outlook: March 26-April 1, 2018

March certainly came in like a lion, but true to form, it’s probably going out like a lamb. After a very active month, much of the upcoming week will feature some rather benign weather.

The week starts out with high pressure to our north and northeast, meaning dry but cool conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Of course, cool is a relative term, since “cool” late March means 40s for highs, as opposed to teens and 20s in January. That also means that we’ll continue to melt this persistent snow cover that we’ve had. Of course, with melting during the day and temperatures dropping below freezing at night, the potential exists for some black ice, so use a little caution if you’re heading out during the next few evenings.

t2max_massachusetts_MAR26
High temperatures should be right around 50 for the final week of March. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

For Wednesday, a weak system moves across the region, bringing us some scattered showers. If the precipitation moves in early enough, which is a possibility, we could see a little freezing rain or some sleet Wednesday morning, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire.

gfs_ptype_slp_boston_11
Some freezing rain is possible across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley as precipitation moves in Wednesday morning. Im age provided by WeatherBell.

This brings us to Thursday, which will be a sure sign for many of you that Spring has finally arrived. Sure, it’ll be dry and mild. Temperatures should be well into the 50s across the area. More important than that – it’s Opening Day. The 2018 regular season begins for the Boys of Summer. When Chris Sale steps to the mound at Tropicana Field, the fans there won’t see a single cloud in the sky, but that’s because it’s a domed stadium and you can’t see the sky from inside the park. Around here, if you’re tuning into NESN or WEEI, it should be a fantastic day to leave work a little early (first pitch is at 4pm), and enjoy the fact that baseball is back. In fact, Thursday will feature a Boston/Tampa doubleheader on NESN. No, not two baseball games, but right after the Sox and Rays play, the Bruins and Lightning will faceoff at the Garden with 1st place in the Eastern Conference on the line. If you’re a fan of both hockey and baseball (like we are here at StormHQ), then there aren’t too many days on the calendar better than Thursday.

bb0b824c41c4429a86575f2bb382f3bb

Back to the weather, Friday will still be mild, but also wet, as a storm system passes north and west of the region. Of course, given the way this past winter has gone, we wouldn’t be surprised if that storm trended farther south and east, and we end up cooler, but for now, we’ll remain optimistic.

Behind the system, we should remain seasonably mild on Saturday, with showers ending in the morning but Sunday is the day with questions. At least one model wants to bring another system right in with windy, wet, and warmer conditions, while another model wants to build a high pressure system in with sunshine and seasonable conditions. Once again, we’ll remain optimistic, but be forewarned, you may need umbrellas for your Easter or Passover plans.

Monday: Clouds linger across Cape Cod, becoming partly to mostly sunny elsewhere. High 37-44.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 22-29.

Tuesday: Sunshine to start, then high clouds filter in during the afternoon. High 41-48.

Tuesday night: Becoming cloudy, showers developing late at night, possibly starting as some freezing rain in the Merrimack Valley and southern New Hampshire. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Cloudy with scattered showers likely. High 41-48.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks. High 54-61, cooler right along the South Coast.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. High 50-57.

Saturday: Showers ending in the morning, some sunshine develops in the afternoon, breezy. High 48-55.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 45-52.

Weekly Outlook: March 19-25, 2018

640e4da1ddcc677489803612adff60bd--nc-weather-march-madness

To many of you, March Madness started this past weekend, and by now, your bracket is busted. For some of you, March Madness has been going on for a couple of weeks, and you’ve got trees and other things that are busted. Will the Madness continue? It looks like it may, for at least part of the region.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, so we have another dry but chilly day for Monday. Clouds start to stream in on Tuesday as low pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Unlike most of the storms that have impacted us this month, this storm should slide off to our south, with little to no impact on New England this time. However, another storm quickly follows behind that one, and this one should be a bit farther north and west, meaning that at least parts of the region will see some impact. There is still many questions about the exact track this storm will take and how strong it will be, so we’ll likely have a special post later in the week about it, but for now, we have some preliminary ideas.

It looks like a period of light snow is expected from Wednesday morning into Thursday morning across the area. The snow is most likely across southeastern Massachusetts, but could extend as far inland as southern New Hampshire and central Massachusetts. There’s also the chance that some rain could mix in across Cape Cod. These are the type of details we won’t be able to resolve until sometime on Tuesday most likely. One thing we are fairly certain of is that another period of strong winds is likely across eastern Massachusetts, especially along the coast. Tides are astronomically high again this week, so coastal flooding will be a concern at high tide, especially the high tides early Wednesday and Thursday morning, as well as Wednesday afternoon.

nam_mslp_uv10m_boston_26
Sustained winds of 20-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph are possible Wednesday into early Thursday along the coastline. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The storm starts to pull away Thursday afternoon, but with an upper-level low pressure system moving through, plenty of clouds are likely into Friday, with a few flurries possible. High pressure briefly builds in for Saturday with some sunshine, but clouds quickly return in the afternoon as the next system starts to approach. As for that system on Sunday, the usual caveats apply – it’s seven days away, there’s a ton of uncertainty, things can and will change, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 32-39.

Monday night: Clear in the evening, then high clouds start to stream in late at night. Low 14-21.

Tuesday: Thickening clouds. High 33-40.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy and becoming breezy. Chance for light snow towards daybreak along the south coast. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with light snow likely, possibly mixing with rain across Cape Cod. High 30-37.

Thursday: Light snow ending early, a few sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon, still breezy. High 37-44.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for a flurry. High 38-45.

Saturday: Sunny to start, clouds return in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow or rain. High 32-39.