No record heat is expected this week, but it won’t be that chilly for the most part either.
As far as we’re concerned, Patriots Day is the best day of the year. Image provided by the New York Times.
We start the week off with a cold front crossing the region on this Patriots Day. It will produce some showers, mainly during the afternoon, so they shouldn’t have too much of an impact, if any, on the morning reenactments in Lexington/Concord, the Marathon from Hopkinton to Boston, or the traditional 11am Red Sox game. The front pushes offshore later today, then skies clear out tonight. However, we’ll have an upper-level trough of low pressure cross the Northeast on Tuesday, so we may see some sunshine in the morning, clouds will regenerate, and we could even have a few pop-up showers during the afternoon.
The showers both today and tomorrow should be scattered and light in nature. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure builds in for Wednesday with sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures. A warm front moves across the region early Thursday, possibly producing a few showers, then Thursday looks to feature dry and warmer conditions, but not nearly to the extent we had last week. Friday looks warm as well, but with more clouds as another slow-moving cold front begins to approach. At this time, at looks like some showers are likely at times from late Friday into Sunday before the cold front finally moves through. None of the days should be a washout, and there will be long dry periods, but the showers are possible at almost any time ahead of the front. Temperatures should remain on the mild side ahead of the front, especially on Friday and Saturday, though the clouds and rainfall will keep them in check somewhat.
Friday has the potential to be a very warm day. Images provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Morning fog, otherwise mostly cloudy with showers likely, mainly during the afternoon. High 56-63.
Monday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 42-49.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for a few pop-up showers during the afternoon. High 54-61.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 36-43.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 53-60.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers early. High 60-67.
Friday: Partly sunny, showers may develop towards evening. High 64-71, cooler along the coast.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with occasional showers. High 61-68, cooler along the coast.
Sunday: Plenty of clouds, more showers, breezy again. High 58-65.
Much of the upcoming week will be not only dry, but some much warmer weather is on the way.
High pressure remains in control today, with sunshine and milder temperatures, though a seabreeze will keep coastal areas a little cooler. We’ll have another cool night tonight, but the real warmup begins tomorrow. Morning sunshine will start to fade behind increasing afternoon clouds as a weak frontal system heads our way. Gusty west winds will result in a warmer day, even at the coast. Most locations should get close to or over 70 degrees tomorrow. With the gusty winds and dry weather, brush fire danger will be quite high, and will remain that way for much of the week. Wednesday will feature some clouds in the morning, but sunshine returns during the afternoon, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Tuesday, but still well above normal for mid-April. Thursday and Friday look like absolutely fantastic days for mid-April. Thursday should feature lots of sunshine, and temperatures well into the 70s, except right along the coast thanks to a seabreeze. While Friday will have some more clouds we’ll likely see temperatures get well into the 80s in many areas, again the coast will be cooler thanks to a seabreeze.
Record highs are in jeopardy in many locations on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A backdoor cold front moves through Friday night, but it may not make it too far inland. Saturday could end up very mild again in some areas, with cooler weather along the coast and into parts of northeastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Sunday could end up another warm day, again except near the coast, but a cold front will be approaching from the west. This will likely bring in some showers late Sunday and Sunday night, possibly lingering into Monday. Since Monday features the Boston Marathon and the 11am Red Sox game, the timing of the rain will be important. We should have a better idea on that when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
The GFS and ECMWF have different ideas for the timing of the rain on Patriots Day. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 58-65, coolest along the coast.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.
Tuesday: Morning sun, then clouds increase and thicken, breezy. High 66-73.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Low 49-56.
Wednesday: Morning clouds give way to some afternoon sunshine, breezy again. High 64-71, coolest along the coast.
Thursday: Lots of sunshine. High 74-81 inland, 66-73 along the coast.
Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 80-86, 72-79 along the coast.
Saturday: More clouds than sun. High 71-78 inland, 63-70 along the coast.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a few showers possible. High 65-72 inland, 57-64 along the coast.
Patriots Day: Mostly cloudy and breezy with more showers possible. High 64-71.
As is typical of April, this week will be cool, warm, wet, and dry. Let’s get into the details.
High pressure slides offshore today, allowing milder weather to move back in on gusty south to southwest winds. A frontal system will drop southward later in the day, bringing some clouds in, along with a few showers at night, mainly north of the Mass Pike. That front will continue to slowly drift southward during the day on Tuesday, with some additional showers possible. South of the front, temperatures will be in the mild side, possibly well into the 60s, on Tuesday, but to the north of it, it will be much cooler, with temperatures only in the 50s, perhaps upper 40s. With the front expected to stall out south of the region, Wednesday looks chilly and somewhat damp thanks to east winds off the still-cool Atlantic.
The models don’t agree on how quickly the front drops southward on Tuesday, which has a significant impact on temperatures from north to south across the region. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
That front will lift northward again as a warm front Wednesday night, setting up a rather warm day on Thursday. Despite plenty of clouds, temperatures will get well into the 60s, likely topping 70 in some spots. If we can get any sunshine, temperatures could get well into the 70s across the region. The warm air won’t hang around long though, as a cold front moves through late in the day with some showers and possibly thunderstorms. High pressure builds in for Friday and the weekend with dry weather. Temperatures will be cooler on Friday and Saturday, but should moderate on Sunday.
If we can get some sunshine, Thursday could be a very warm afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Morning sunshine, clouds start to filter in during the afternoon, breezy. High 49-56.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy, winds diminish during the evening, a few showers likely after midnight, mainly north of the Mass Pike. Low 39-46.
Tuesday: Plenty of clouds, with some additional showers possible, again favoring areas north of the Mass Pike. High 50-57 north of the Mass Pike, 58-65 south of the Pike, except cooler along the coast.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle. Low 38-45.
Wednesday: Cloudy with a few showers and some drizzle likely. High 44-51.
Thursday: More clouds than sun, breezy, and warm with some late-day showers, possibly a thunderstorm. High 65-72, cooler along the South Coast.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy, and cooler. High 51-58.
The week won’t be completely quiet, but dry weather is expected for Red Sox Opening Day on Thursday.
The week starts off with high pressure moving offshore, allowing for a dry day today, but clouds will be on the increase ahead of a weak storm system. That system will pass south of the region tonight, with some rain showers likely, possibly mixed with a little snow, especially across the hills and into southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. Skies will be slow to clear out on Tuesday behind the system with an upper-level disturbance moving through, possibly producing another shower or two. High pressure builds in for Tuesday night and Wednesday with clearing skies and seasonable temperatures. A cold front moves through Wednesday night or early Thursday with a few rain or snow showers likely.
Tonight’s system should be mostly rain, but some wet snow is possible. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
For Red Sox Opening Day on Thursday, skies should become partly to mostly sunny, but it will be on the breezy and cool side. For first pitch a little after 2pm, it will only be around 42 degrees, but when you factor in the northwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph, it will feel like it’s only in the lower to middle 30s.
It may not feel like baseball weather on Thursday, but it’s another sign that Spring has arrived.
Friday will turn warmer as winds shift into the southwest, but clouds will be on the increase again ahead of the next storm system. The details are still a little fuzzy on this one, but for now, it looks like we’ll have periods of rain at some point between Friday night and Sunday, though it could start and/or end as snow across southern New Hampshire and the Worcester Hills. As for temperatures, the models all show a warm front moving in, but how far north it gets is up for debate. South of the front, temperatures could climb into the 60s, north of it, they may stay in the 40s (or 30s). We should have more clarity when it’s time for our Weekend outlook on Thursday.
The models vary by 20-30 degrees on temperatures for Saturday afternoon. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Morning sunshine, increasing and thickening clouds in the afternoon, showers develop late in the day. High 50-57.
Monday night: Cloudy with some light rain and showers likely, possibly mixed with wet snow before ending. Low 31-38.
Tuesday: Clouds and some afternoon sunny breaks, a shower or two is possible. High 41-48.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 26-33.
Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, chance for a rain or snow shower at night. High 46-53.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High 40-47.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, showers developing at night. High 45-52.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and windy with rain likely. High 59-66, potentially much cooler north of the Mass Pike.
Sunday: Early showers, then becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 43-50.
Spring begins today, and we’ve got some nice weather for a few days, but the latter half of the week may not be as nice.
Tuesday is the pick of the week with sunshine and temperatures possibly making a run at 60. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure will be in control through Wednesday with dry weather and a warming trend expected. It’ll still be breezy today, but winds should diminish into Tuesday. Clouds will start to increase on Wednesday ahead of a warm front. That front will produce some showers Wednesday night into early Thursday, setting up a very mild day, with some showers possible. The front will sag southward as a cold front late in the day, likely stalling out near or just south of New England. Another wave of low pressure rides along that front on Friday with some additional showers likely, depending on where the front stalls out. With some cooler air in place, we could see some wet snow mix in across northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire if the front does stay out near the South Coast, but these are the types of details that are kind of fuzzy this far out, and will need to be fine-tuned later this week. Another low pressure likely moves up the St. Lawrence Valley over the weekend with a secondary low pressure system passing south of New England, but the details regarding timing and precipitation type with this system vary depending on which model you look at.
Saturday may not be a great day around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Wall-to-wall sunshine, breezy. High 45-52.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy during the afternoon. High 53-60.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 29-36.
Wednesday: Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy with showers possible at night. High 51-58, cooler at the coast.
Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with a few showers early, then becoming more numerous late in the day and into the evening. High 52-59.
Friday: Cloudy, more showers possible, breezy. High 48-55.
Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain or possibly snow, especially north and west of Boston. High 40-47.
Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance for showers early, breezy. High 44-51.
As Metallica sings in the beginning of the song “All Nightmare Long”, luck does indeed run out. After getting lucky for nearly the entire winter without a major snowstorm, it appears that our luck has finally run out.
Today will be the literal calm before the storm with high pressure sliding off to the east, but still keep us dry despite plenty of cloudcover. After that, we turn our eyes to a developing low pressure system moving up the East Coast. This will likely be a potent storm when it gets up here, producing strong winds and quite a bit of precipitation. It’s also expected to stall out and perhaps make a bit of a loop, which means we’re looking at a long-duration storm, starting this evening, and likely not ending until Wednesday morning. That’s what we’re fairly certain about. What we’re not certain about is the actually track the storm takes, and where it stalls/makes a loop, and that is the most critical part of the forecast. Temperatures will be marginal to begin with, so a degree or two will make a huge difference. We’re not worried about any warm air aloft, so sleet and freezing rain aren’t a concern – just a good old-fashioned rain/snow line. With marginal temperatures, intensity will also help determine what falls, as lighter precipitation will be more rain than snow, while heavier precipitation will bring some colder air down from aloft, resulting in more snow than rain.
Whether it’s rain or melted snow, this will be a rather juicy storm. Image provided by WeatherBell.
OK, having said all that, he’s our best estimate as to what we expect – low pressure moves up the East Coast, passing just south and east of Cape Cod. Meanwhile, a much weaker secondary low will move across Long Island and southern Connecticut, before it weakens and dissipates. This will help keep temperatures a little warmer, especially near the South Coast, with east to southeast winds. The original rather potent system will then do a loop in the waters just east of New England, before finally moving away on Wednesday. In terms of sensible weather we’re probably looking at nearly all snow north of the Mass Pike and outside of I-495, especially in the hills. South and east of there, precipitation likely starts as rain this evening, gradually changing to snow from northwest to southeast during the day on Tuesday as the system moves off to the east, and strong north to northwest winds bring cooler air in. Those winds will gust to 40-50 mph at times, but luckily tides are astronomically low, so coastal flooding isn’t a widespread concern.
We think the forecast track on the NAM is close to what might happen. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
As for snowfall, we need to make a distinction here between snowfall and snow accumulation. With the increasing sun angle, and the warmer ground, snow will have a hard time accumulating during the daylight hours, especially on paved surfaces, when precipitation is falling lightly. So, it could snow for quite some time, but there won’t be much on the ground. The model forecast maps that people love to share on Facebook and Twitter show snowfall, and as we’ve just said, those maps will not be reflective of what you may see on the ground when this storm winds down. What are we expecting for accumulation?
0-2″ – Outer Cape/Islands 2-4″ – South Coast/Upper Cape/Coastal Plymouth County 4-7″ – I-95 corridor (Providence/Boston), southeastern Massachusetts/North Shore 5-9″ – Metro West/Essex County/NH Seacoast 6-12″ – Merrimack Valley/Southern New Hampshire 8-16″ – Hilly terrain from northwest Rhode Island into central Massachusetts and southwest New Hampshire with isolated heavier amounts possible.
We will note that there are some models that do bring heavier (in some cases MUCH heavier) snow into eastern and especially southeastern Massachusetts. We’re not putting much stock in those. However, if they do end up correct, our snowfall forecast will be off by several orders of magnitude.
Our forecast isn’t that different from what the National Weather Service is forecasting. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Once this storm pulls away, high pressure builds in with drier and more seasonable conditions for Wednesday night and Thursday. Another system may move in later Friday into Saturday, but this looks like mainly rain, with drier weather again behind that storm on Sunday.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, showers developing late in the day. High 40-47.
Monday night: Windy with rain likely, changing to snow across southern New Hampshire and central Massachusetts toward daybreak, rain may be heavy at times. Low 32-39.
Tuesday: Windy with rain changing to snow from northwest to southeast during the day. Snow and rain could be heavy at times. High 33-40 early, temperatures hold steady or drop during the day.
Tuesday night: Windy with snow gradually tapering off. Low 27-34.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and windy, snow showers ending. High 33-40.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 42-49.
Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy, breezy, showers develop at night. High 45-52.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, showers likely, possibly changing to snow before ending at night. High 45-52.
Much of the upcoming week will feature quiet weather, a welcome change from the active pattern we’d had over the past few weeks.
Saturday’s storm produced light to moderate snow across much of the area. Image provided by the National Weather Service.
The week starts off with high pressure providing us sunshine and seasonable temperatures, but low pressure will continue to intensify in Atlantic Canada, producing gusty winds across the region for the next few days. A weak system will move out of the Great Lakes on Tuesday, likely passing south and west of the region, but it may be close enough for a few rain or snow showers. Wednesday and Thursday will feature intervals of clouds and sunshine with a few rain or snow showers along with gusty winds as disturbances rotate around low pressure south of Nova Scotia. By Friday, high pressure builds in with more sunshine and lighter winds.
Normal high temperatures for early March are in the lower to middle 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Unfortunately, next weekend does not look as quiet. Most of the models are showing the potential for a storm system to impact the region next weekend, but they differ considerably on the details, including timing, placement, strength, and precipitation type. Hopefully, things will become clearer later this week.
The models all have different ideas for what will happen next Saturday, Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, windy. High 41-48.
Monday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 22-29.
Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, chance for a rain or snow shower. High 32-39.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 22-29.
Wednesday: More clouds than sun, breezy, a rain or snow shower possible, mainly across Cape Cod. High 39-46.
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, chance for a rain or snow shower, mainly near the coast. High 39-46.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 40-47.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, chance for snow or rain. High 38-45.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, windy, chance for snow or rain. High 36-43.
Also, a remainder that Daylight Saving Time begins next Sunday at 2am, so you’ll lose an hour or sleep, or if you’ll be at work, you’ll have an hour less of work.
We’ve got a rather turbulent week coming up across the region.
High pressure will be in control to start the week, with a mostly dry Monday, but a storm system is on the way. Low pressure will cross the Great Lakes and head up the St. Lawrence Valley while weakening. Meanwhile, a secondary area of low pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast and head eastward. We’ll be in between the two, which means some light to perhaps moderate snow developing Monday night continuing into Tuesday. The Tuesday morning commute is going to be rough, so plan accordingly. As temperatures rise to near or above freezing, we may see a change to rain, especially across southeastern Massachusetts, possibly into the Boston area. So, the afternoon commute may not be as bad, especially south of Boston. The snow winds down during the evening. Despite earlier model predictions and internet hype, this will NOT be a big storm. In general, most of us will see 2-5″ of accumulation, perhaps a little less along the coast, perhaps a little more near the hills from northwestern Rhode Island into central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire.
This will be a light to moderate snowstorm for the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Wednesday starts off dry, but another weak disturbance moves through late in the day with a few rain or snow showers possible. Another system quickly follows for Thursday, but this one looks warmer, as it will pass north of the region, so some rain showers are expected, maybe some freezing rain as you head up into central New Hampshire. That system moves offshore Thursday evening, then high pressure builds in, but it doesn’t hang around for too long. Yet another system quickly follows for late Friday into Saturday. There’s still plenty of uncertainty with this one, but it looks to pass near or just south of the region, so more snow is possible, or perhaps a mix of snow, sleet, and rain. Obviously, we’ll have a better idea of what this storm will bring (we hope), but the time we get around to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday. Yet another weak disturbance may bring in some snow showers Saturday night and early Sunday before high pressure builds back in.
The models have differing ideas on the potential for a storm late Friday and Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Morning sun, clouds return in the afternoon. High 30-37.
Monday night: Cloudy with snow developing. Low 21-28, temperatures may rise a little after midnight.
Tuesday: Breezy with snow likely, possibly mixing with rain south of Boston. High 33-40.
Tuesday night: Snow (or rain), ending in the evening, some clearing after midnight. Low 22-29.
Wednesday: Some morning sun, clouds move back in during the afternoon, snow or rain showers possible in the evening. High 40-47.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild with rain showers likely. High 46-53.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, snow, sleet, rain developing late in the day, becoming windy at night. High 35-42.
Saturday: Wintry mix ending in the morning, some sunny breaks in the afternoon, then some more snow showers possible at night, windy. High 32-39.
Sunday: Some morning snow showers, becoming partly sunny, breezy. High 34-41.
An active weather pattern will bring many changes to our weather this week.
We start off the week with a little rain across southeastern Massachusetts behind a departing disturbance. The rest of the day will be mild, but a cold front will swing through this afternoon with the chance for a few showers. We’ll clear out for a little while tonight behind that front, but clouds quickly return on Tuesday ahead of another disturbance. This one will bring in some more showers on Tuesday, but some snow could mix in, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern and central New Hampshire. Accumulations won’t amount to much, but an inch or so is possible in southern New Hampshire. The real changes start on Wednesday.
A little bit of snow is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A double-barreled low pressure will move out of the Great Lakes and head toward the region later Wednesday into Thursday and early Friday. This will bring a variety of weather in. Precipitation will move in late Wednesday afternoon and evening, and will likely start as snow for much of the region, with a wintry mix or rain likely near the South Coast. Warmer air will move in aloft, eventually changing the precipitation to sleet and freezing rain. A change to plain rain is likely near the South Coast, but temperatures may stay below freezing across much of the remainder of the region, with a prolonged period of sleet and/or freezing rain possible Wednesday night and early Thursday. We may get a bit of a break Thursday afternoon before the second part of the system moves in with more mixed precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There is the potential for several inches of snow before the changeover Wednesday night and Thursday morning, especially north of the Mass Pike, but this is highly uncertain at this point. Either way, the Thursday morning commute will be a mess.
The Thursday morning commute has the potential to be ugly around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
High pressure builds in for late Friday and Saturday with some chilly weather, then another system quickly follows late Saturday into Sunday with a chance for some more light snow, possibly mixed with rain, especially near the South Coast.
Saturday morning could be rather chilly around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers during the afternoon, some late-day clearing, breezy. High 51-58.
Monday night: Partly cloudy through the evening, clouds move back in late at night. Low 27-34.
Tuesday: Cloudy and cooler with some rain or snow showers likely during the afternoon and evening. High 36-43.
Tuesday night: Clearing, breezy. Low 24-31.
Wednesday: Early sun, then clouds return, snow and sleet developing at night. High 37-44.
Thursday: Snow changing to sleet and freezing rain, plain rain south of Boston, breezy. High 25-32 north of the Mass Pike, 33-40 south of the Pike.
Friday: Snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain ending early, some late-day clearing, windy. High 30-37.
Saturday: Partly sunny and chilly, clouds thicken up in the afternoon, light snow developing at night, mixed with rain near the South Coast. High 23-30.
Sunday: Snow or rain ending early, some late-day clearing, breezy. High 36-43.
We’ve got another fairly quiet week coming up with some rather mild weather on the way once again.
Normal high temperatures for mid-February are in the middle to upper 30s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
We start the week off with low pressure pulling away from the region. Any lingering showers across Cape Cod will end this morning, but skies will remain cloudy. An upper-level disturbance moves through tonight with more clouds, and possibly a few snow showers, mainly north of Route 2. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with clearing and mild temperatures. The warming trend will continue for Wednesday and Thursday, with highs on Thursday possibly setting some records with temperatures topping 60 in some spots. Wednesday will remain dry, but some rain will develop later on Thursday as low pressure heads toward the St. Lawrence Valley. The rain will end on Friday as the system drags a strong cold front across the region. The timing of this front is a huge question mark right now, and that will have a significant impact on the temperature forecast. The later the front moves through, the more likely we have another warm day with more record highs possible. An earlier frontal passage results in a cooler day. Either way, high pressure builds in for the weekend with dry and much cooler conditions.
Record highs could be challenged across the region again on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, any lingering showers near the South Coast and Cape Cod end in the morning. High 40-47.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few snow showers or flurries, mainly north of Route 2. Low 28-35.
Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy. High 42-49.
Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, then clouds increase once again. Low 26-33.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, windy. High 49-56.
Thursday: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy with showers likely late in the day and at night. High 58-65, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers ending, some late-day clearing, windy. High 52-59, temperatures drop during the afternoon.
Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, and cooler. High 32-39.
Storm HQ 