Weekly Outlook: September 26-October 3, 2022

Much of the forecast for this week is fairly straightforward, but it gets very complicated next weekend.

An upper-level trough of low pressure will move across the Northeast today into Tuesday. This means we’ll have some clouds popping up with a few showers developing during the afternoon, mainly on Monday, but a couple are possible on Tuesday as well. Wednesday through Friday will feature high pressure, which means we’ll remain dry and on the cool side. Next weekend has a high amount of uncertainty, and it has to do with Tropical Storm Ian.

Normal high temperatures in late September are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As of 12am Monday, Tropical Storm Ian was centered about 115 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman, moving toward the northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 70 mph. The forecast calls for Ian to pass close to the Cayman Islands on Monday as a hurricane, then near or across western Cuba Monday night and Tuesday before moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Ian could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane over the next few days. After that, its future gets a little murkier. A trough of low pressure across the eastern US should steer Ian northward and at some point northeastward, but when it makes that turn is not clear. This impacts where and when landfall will occur. At this point, landfall is possible anywhere from Fort Myers, Florida all the way to New Orleans. Complicating matters even more is the fact that as it gets farther northward, drier air and wind shear will act to weaken the storm. So, a sooner landfall (say in the Ft Myers to Tampa area) could result in a stronger storm making landfall, but if it heads toward the Florida Panhandle or central Gulf Coast, it could be considerably weaker at landfall. An earlier turn toward the northeast could also result in Ian moving back into the Atlantic, and thus could be a threat to the Carolinas.

The members of the various ensembles show a wide range of tracks for Ian as you get out to next weekend. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

So, how does that impact our forecast next weekend? Well, an earlier turn would likely keep the storm off to our south, with high pressure holding on over the Northeast, keeping us drier. A landfall farther north likely results in the storm rapidly weakening over land, but increases the possibility that the remains move up the Appalachians and bring some rain, possibly heavy, in here or across northern New England next weekend. At this point, it’s just too early to figure out which scenario may occur, so we’re going to be very vague in the forecast for now.

Most of the models keep the heavier rain both north and south of the region next weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds with a few showers possible in the afternoon, mainly north and west of Boston. High 68-75.

Monday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a few showers during the evening. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, just a slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 47-54.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 64-71.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 60-67.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 59-66.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers. High 63-70.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance for showers. High 63-70.

Weekly Outlook: September 19-25, 2022

Changes are on the way as astronomical summer comes to an end and autumn begins later this week.

We start the week off with a backdoor cold front stalled out across the region, making for a rather tricky temperature forecast. North of the front, northeast to east winds will keep temperatures in the 60s (even upper 50s near the coast), while south of the front, temperatures will get well into the 70s once again. A wave of low pressure will pass north of the region later today, producing some showers and possibly thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Tuesday looks to remain rather cloudy and on the cool side with a few more showers possible as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region. Wednesday should be a rather nice day with some sunshine and milder temperatures, but don’t get used to it. Another cold front starts to approach late in the day, with another round of showers and perhaps thunderstorms expected Wednesday night into early Thursday. This brings us to the start of fall and the bigger changes.

Temperatures at midday may range from near 60 along the NH Seacoast to near 80 along the South Coast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The autumnal equinox occurs at 9:03pm Thursday, marking the end of astronomical summer and start of astronomical fall, and right on cue, some fall weather will settle in. The system moving through early Thursday will move offshore, allowing much cooler air to settle in. How cool? The rain may end as some wet snow across the mountains of northern New England. (Yes, really.) Around here, high pressure builds in, and despite sunshine, temperatures may struggle to reach 60 in some spots on Friday. Friday night looks rather chilly, with some frost possible in the normally cooler locations. Temperatures will moderate a bit over the weekend, but likely will remain below to near normal.

Friday is shaping up to be a rather cool day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: A few sunny breaks across Cape Cod early, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers or some drizzle early, showers becoming more widespread during the afternoon, except along the South Coast. High 57-64 across the Maine and NH Seacoast, 64-71 elsewhere north of the Mass Pike and east of Worcester, 72-79 south of the Mass Pike.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mostly before midnight. Low 55-62.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, chance for another shower or two. High 64-71.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, showers move in by evening, continuing overnight. High 68-75.

Thursday: Showers gradually ending, skies start to clear out late in the day, breezy at times. High 68-75.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, and cool. High 57-64.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 62-69.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.

Weekly Outlook: September 12-18, 2022

We’ve got another week that starts out with some rain, but shouldn’t end that way.

Last week’s heavy rain helped, but we remain in in severe to extreme drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

We start off with a few showers this morning as a warm front moves through, but once they end we’ll see some sunshine today with warm and humid conditions. Clouds return tonight as a cold front approaches, and that front will produce some showers and thunderstorms as it moves through on Tuesday. A few storms may produce some gusty winds and heavy downpours, but for the most part, this should be a light rainfall event for the region. Behind the front, high pressure starts to build in on Wednesday, but temperatures will remain on the mild side. A stronger push of colder air moves in Wednesday night, leading to below normal temperatures for Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures may fail to reach 70 for highs in parts of the region, especially Thursday and Friday. By Sunday, the high moves off the east, allowing temperatures to moderate across the region.

Tuesday’s rain will be beneficial, but we need a lot more. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, a few showers likely, mainly in the morning. High 77-84.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy, showers may redevelop toward daybreak. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm. High 73-80.

Tuesday night: Clearing. Low 54-61.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 74-81.

Thursday: More sunshine. High 67-74.

Friday: Sunshine continues. High 66-73.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 70-77.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 72-79.

Weekly Outlook: September 5-11, 2022

Some much-needed rain is on the way, but unfortunately much of it will fall on a holiday.

Despite last week’s rain, much of the region remains in severe or extreme drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

We start the week off with a cold front stalling out across the region. North of the front we’ll have some showers today with temperatures likely staying in the 60s. Closer to the South Coast, temperatures may be in the 70s with less rain at first, but still plenty of clouds. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing some additional showers or a period of steady rain in late today and tonight. By Tuesday, the front starts to push off to the south, and the shower activity winds down during the afternoon. How much rain we’ll see is still a bit of question, even as it has already started across parts of the area. Some models are still showing the potential for 3-6 inches of rain (or more) across the region, while others show less. Either way, we need all the rain we can get to help put a dent into the ongoing drought and to help refill the rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the region. With most places likely to see at least a period of heavy rain, Flood Watches have been issued for much of the region through later Tuesday.

Some models show the potential for very heavy rain across the region today and tomorrow. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Skies start to clear out Tuesday night, then high pressure builds in for Wednesday right into the weekend, with a return to dry weather. After a couple of chilly day Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will return to near to above normal levels for the rest of the week and the weekend, with many days featuring highs getting back into the 80s across parts of the area once again.

Normal high temperatures for early September are in the middle to upper 70s across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Occasional showers. High 64-71 north of the Mass Pike, 71-78 south of the Pike.

Monday night: Periods of rain and showers, some of the rain could be heavy. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Cloudy and cool with showers gradually ending during the afternoon. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Overcast with a few lingering showers during the evening, then some late night clearing may develop. Low 53-60.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 76-83.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 77-84.

Weekly Outlook: August 29 – September 5, 2022

The last few days of August and beginning of September, including Labor Day weekend look to be similar to the rest of the summer, warm and dry for the most part.

Despite last week’s heavy rain, rainfall is still 3-6 inches below normal over the past 90 days, and this week will provide little help. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The week starts off with high pressure moving offshore, allowing for a sunny, warm, and humid day today. Tuesday looks similar, but we’ll see clouds start to move in as a cold front approaches the region. That front will produce some showers and possibly a thunderstorm Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before it pushes offshore. After that, high pressure builds back in with cooler and drier conditions for later Wednesday into Friday. As the high moves offshore, warmer weather returns for the holiday weekend. Some models show the potential for a cold front to bring in a few showers late Sunday, then cooler weather for Monday. We’re a little skeptical on the showers at this point, but Labor Day does look to be a bit cooler.

Dewpoints will be in the 60s and lower 70s through Wednesday morning, then drop into the 40s and lower 50s for Thursday and Friday. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 84-91.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, humid. High 86-93.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible, maybe a rumble of thunder. Low 66-73.

Wednesday: Any showers end early, then becoming mostly sunny. High 82-89.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, drier. High 77-84.

Friday: Wall-to-wall sunshine. High 73-80.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 79-86.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers late in the day. High 83-90.

Labor Day: Partly sunny and cooler. High 72-79.

Weekly Outlook: August 22-28, 2022

The week will start off on a damp note, but dry weather will return for a good chunk of the remainder of the week.

Low pressure will pass well north and west of the region over the next 36-48 hours. It will send a warm front toward the region today, triggering showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, but temperatures will actually remain on the cool side. Some of the models are showing the potential for some heavy rainfall today, but we’ve seen that before, and we’re not falling for it again. Will it rain? Probably. Heavy rain? Don’t count on it. Of course, we could use the rain, so it some heavy rain does materialize, that’d probably be a good thing, but we just don’t see it happening. Showers taper off tonight, and we could see some sunshine early on Tuesday. However, a cold front will be approaching, and it may trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly north and west of Boston.

Several models show the potential for heavy rain across the region today and Tuesday. We’re not buying it. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

After that, high pressure builds in for most of the remainder of the week with very warm to hot conditions. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible during some of the afternoons, but they probably won’t be that widespread. The best chance appears to be on Friday when a frontal system moves through, with some cooler and drier air settling in for the weekend.

Dewpoints may drop into the 50s next weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers developing, possibly a rumble of thunder. High 72-79.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a few more showers, mainly during the evening. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms, mainly north and west of Boston. High 76-83.

Tuesday night: A few lingering showers during the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 84-91.

Friday: Partly sunny, chance for some late-day showers or thunderstorms. High 82-89.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85.

Weekly Outlook: August 15-21, 2022

There’s a chance for some beneficial rainfall this week to help put a dent in the drought. Unfortunately, that chance is a lot smaller than it looked a few days ago.

High pressure will slide offshore today, allowing for another in a string of rather nice days across the region with mild temperatures and low humidity. A low pressure system will be starting to take shape off the Mid-Atlantic coast while and upper-level low also sets up residence across the Northeast. The low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will slowly rotate around the upper-level low over the next few days, passing south and east of New England. How close it gets will determine how much, if any, rainfall we get. Over the past few days, the models have been all over the place, with solutions ranging from extreme amounts of rain that would likely lead to flooding, to virtually no rain at all across the region, to everything in between. There’s still plenty of uncertainty, but we’re leaning toward the drier side of things for now, especially given the ongoing drought. We do think there will be some showers at times between late Tuesday and early Thursday morning, favoring eastern portions of the region, but we don’t think they’ll be that heavy. At this point though, every little bit helps.

Most (but not all) of the models are forecasting the bulk of the rain to stay offshore with the mid-week system. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

By the end of the week, the low pressure both at the surface and aloft move out, replaced with high pressure, so a return to very warm and humid conditions is expected, but just a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. The next system will begin to approach from the west on Sunday, though the timing of this system is uncertain as well. Some models bring it in with showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, others hold it off until Monday. We should have a little better idea of the timing by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures could get near or above 90 again on Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.

Monday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a few showers across Cape Cod and the Islands. Low 56-63.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 75-82.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers across eastern Massachusetts and the New Hampshire Seacoast. Low 58-65.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with a few showers possible, especially across eastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, breezy. High 71-78.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 82-89.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 84-91.

Sunday: Partly sunny with a chance for showers. High 79-86.

Weekly Outlook: August 8-14, 2022

The heat and humidity continue to start the week, but relief is on the way.

High pressure remains in place off the East Coast, which means heat and humidity continue into Tuesday. Temperatures likely top 90 for many areas both days, with very humid conditions likely. There is the possibility of a little relief for the coast of Maine, New Hampshire Seacoast, and possibly northeastern Massachusetts. Some models show the potential for a backdoor cold front to drop down into these areas later today and into tonight, bringing some cooler air in. The front likely doesn’t make it past Cape Ann, and should start to retreat northward before daybreak on Tuesday, but a few hours of relief are possible.

A backdoor cold front may drop temperatures into the 60s along the coast of Maine, New Hampshire and extreme northeastern Massachusetts this evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll see some pop-up showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon, but they’ll probably be a bit more widespread on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region. That front will stall out near or just south of the region for Wednesday into Thursday, allowing cooler air to finally move in, but it will likely remain on the humid side. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing in some showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. This big question is, where does the front stall out? If it’s near the South Coast, as most of the models show, then we could see some beneficial rainfall finally fall, especially south of the Mass Pike. If it stalls out offshore, then the beneficial rain may be confined to the South Coast. Recent history suggests that the latter scenario is more likely, despite the majority of the models forecasting the former, so even though our forecast is calling for showers and thunderstorms, we’re not expecting either day to be a washout.

Some beneficial rain is possible this week, but how much and where the heaviest rain falls is still up for debate. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The end of the week and the weekend is even trickier. Some models are showing the potential for low pressure to develop off the Mid-Atlantic or Carolina coast and head northward or northeastward, potentially having some impact here. Given the time of year, and the fact that the water off the East Coast is fairly warm, we wouldn’t be shocked if the National Hurricane Center tries to slap a name on this system if it develops, whether it truly is tropical or not. Whether the system is tropical or not (if it even develops) it appears as though we could be in a period of cool and wet weather, or the models could completely change their tune tomorrow and bring the heat and humidity back. They’ve been pretty unreliable beyond 3 days or so, so at this point, we’re going to lean toward a dry forecast, because as the old saying goes “when it drought, leave it out”. That’s why we do a Weekend Outlook on Thursday afternoons, because we’ll be 3 days closer to the weekend and should have a better idea of what is going on.

Several members of the GFS Ensemble show the potential for low pressure off the East Coast next Saturday, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Speaking of the tropics, it appears as though the Atlantic is starting to awaken, right on time. It’s been 5 weeks since we had “Tropical Storm Colin” (which was really just a big thunderstorm near the Carolina coast, but we digress), and June/July are usually fairly quiet. Activity usually starts to ramp up in August, with the peak of the season coming around September 10. Tropical waves have been rolling off the coast of Africa every few days for the past few weeks, but none of them have amounted to much, as Saharan dust has been inhibiting the thunderstorm development. That appears to be changing. A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday, and even though it is disorganized right now, conditions will be favorable for development over the next few days. As it moves across the Atlantic, it could become a tropical depression toward the middle of this week. If it does develop, chances are that it probably wouldn’t be a strong storm, and it may never be a threat to land. No matter what, we’ll be paying attention and following closely.

We’re keeping our eyes on a system in the eastern Atlantic. Image provided by HurricaneIntel.com

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 90-97.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 72-79, possibly cooler along the coast from Cape Ann northward.

Tuesday: Some morning sun, then increasing clouds with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 91-98.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and storms taper off in the evening. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds and much cooler with more showers possible during the afternoon and at night. High 76-83.

Thursday: Clouds and some sunny breaks with more showers possible, especially in the morning. High 75-82.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 73-80.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82.

Weekly Outlook: August 1-7, 2022

The final month of meteorological summer begins the way the last one ended – with more warm weather.

We’re actually starting the week off with some clouds, and possibly a few showers near the South Coast as a weak disturbance passes south of the region this morning. However, skies should clear out during the afternoon, with a warm and humid afternoon expected. Tuesday looks even warmer and more humid, but with a weak trough of low pressure moving through, we may see a few showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Wednesday looks to be another hot day, but it may not be quite as humid. Thursday certainly looks like the hottest day of this stretch, with some of the models are showing the potential for parts of the region to reach 100 degrees again on Thursday. We’re not quite sure it’ll be that hot, but some upper 90s are certainly plausible.

Rainfall is well below normal across the region since the start of April. The little rain we’ll get today and Tuesday won’t help much. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Friday is the uncertain day of the week. We’ll have a cold front crossing the region, likely producing some showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be determined by how quickly the front moves in, and how much cloudcover there is. The potential is there for much of the region to top 90 once again with muggy conditions. The next question is, how far south does the front get before stalling out. This will determine when we clear out on Saturday or the clouds linger along with the chance for more showers. Either way, temperatures should be cooler. High pressure should build in for Sunday with dry and seasonably warm conditions.

Friday could end up as another hot day across the region, but not all of the models agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers near the South Coast and across Cape Cod and the Islands. High 82-89.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 85-92.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Wednesday: Sunshine. Lots of sunshine. High 85-92.

Thursday: More sunshine. High 92-99, a little cooler near the South Coast.

Friday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and at night. High 86-93.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, lingering showers possible in the morning. High 79-86.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 85-92.

Weekly Outlook: July 25-31, 2022

The final week of July will not be as hot as last week was, but there will still be episodes of humidity to deal with.

After Sunday’s record-breaking heat, which topped 100 in places, today won’t be as hot with a cold front approaching the region. We’ll have plenty of cloud cover with some showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front. Some of the storms could be quite potent, with strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours. There is even a risk for a tornado. While the threat of severe weather exists from Maine to Virginia, around here, we think it’ll be mostly north and west of I-95 where the strongest storms occur, as usual. We could still see some strong storms in Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, so don’t let your guard down if you’ll be in that neck of the woods during the afternoon.

Severe weather looks like a decent bet across the Northeast today. Image provided Pivotal Weather.

While temperatures will be “cooler” today they’ll still be in the 80s, possibly near 90 in spots if we can get enough sunshine in the morning. Of course, if we get some sunshine, that will also help to fuel some stronger thunderstorms. It’ll also be a much more humid day, with dewpoints well into the 60s and 70s, so it’ll feel nearly as hot as Sunday was. As a result, the National Weather Service extended the Heat Advisory for much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island until 5pm today.

It will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees early this afternoon across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The cold front moves offshore tonight, then high pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions. Temperatures should still reach the 80s, but dewpoints will be in the 50s and lower 60s. The next system approaches on Thursday, so we’ll turn warmer and more humid once again, with some showers and thunderstorms likely late Thursday into Friday. At this time, it doesn’t look like the threat for severe weather is as significant as today, but it’s still a few days away, so we’ll keep monitoring things. High pressure builds back in next weekend with seasonably warm and drier weather once again.

Tuesday will be much more comfortable with dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which could be strong to severe. High 85-92.

Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, then skies gradually clear out. Low 59-66.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 83-90.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 85-92.

Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. High 82-89.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 81-88.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 82-89.