Weekly Outlook: September 28 – October 4, 2020

As September ends and October begins, we’ve got some changes coming for our weather pattern.

We start the week off with warm and humid conditions that feel more like late summer than early fall. Thanks to high pressure off the East Coast, southerly flow will continue to pump warm and humid air into the region today and Tuesday. However, we’ll also have plenty of clouds, along with a few showers today and again on Tuesday as a couple of weak disturbances move across the region.

With a little bit of sunshine, temperatures could approach 80 in some spots on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Tuesday night into Wednesday is when the bigger changes start to happen. A cold front approaches the region Tuesday night, moving through on Wednesday. A low pressure area will ride along this front, bringing in some showers. While the bulk of the activity, especially the heavy rain, looks like it will stay to our west, we will see some beneficial rain here, mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We may get a bit of a lull Wednesday afternoon and evening, but by Wednesday night, a low pressure area will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and head northeastward, passing near or just east of the Cape and Islands early Thursday.

Over the last 6 months, rainfall is generally 5-10 inches below normal across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Some models are showing the potential for heavy rain across eastern New England with this system, but we’re a bit skeptical at this point. We’ve seen the models forecast significant rainfall around here numerous times in the past few months, and it just hasn’t materialized for the most part. Add in the fact that not all the models are showing the heavier rain getting in here, and the fact that even the ones that do haven’t been consistently showing it on every run, and we’ve got plenty of reasons to doubt it. Having said that, droughts don’t last forever, and it does have to start raining more consistently at some point, because this is New England, not Arizona.

The models mostly agree that we’ll have some significant rainfall this week, but they don’t agree on how much or where the heaviest rain will fall. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure will try to build in for the end of the week and the weekend with cooler and drier conditions. However, an upper-level low will remain off to our west, and little impulses riding around that low may bring in some more clouds and possibly a few showers, mainly Friday, but possibly Saturday too. Beyond that, it looks like a cooler pattern sets up for next week. There are even a couple of models that show the potential for a storm late next week that may not produce just rain across the higher elevations of northern New England (We’ll be kind and refrain from using that 4-letter word that begins with S that many of you don’t like).

Temperatures may average below normal across the region next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. High 74-81.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine with showers possible late in the day, mainly north and west of Boston. High 73-80.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with some showers around, becoming a steady rain at night. High 69-76.

Thursday: Rain ending early, some clearing in the afternoon. High 65-72.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a pop-up shower. High 62-69.

Saturday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 61-68.

Sunday: Some sun early, clouds return in the afternoon. High 58-65.

Weekly Outlook: September 21-27, 2020

We’re starting to sound like a broken record, but little to no rainfall is expected again this week.

This week’s forecast is fairly simple, so we’ll keep it brief. Monday and Tuesday will feature dry and cool conditions with high pressure in control. Winds will pick up on Tuesday as the extratropical remains of Hurricane Teddy pass to our east and into Nova Scotia. It will create some very rough surf, so heading to the beach or out on a boat won’t be advisable until seas start to calm down later in the week.

Wave heights will be in excess of 40-50 feet east of the Cape and Islands by late Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Wednesday, the high slides offshore, and warmer weather settles in for Wednesday and Thursday. A weak disturbance crosses the region on Friday with some clouds and maybe a shower or two, but that’s about it. Dry weather returns next weekend.

Little to no rainfall is expected across the reion this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Monday: Sunshine and lots of it. High 59-66.

Monday night: Clear skies, though some high clouds may move into eastern areas late at night. Low 36-43, warmer in the urban areas and across the Cape Cod.

Tuesday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds, though some thicker clouds are possible across Cape Cod, becoming breezy, especially along the coast. High 63-70.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny., breezy, and warmer. High 71-78.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 72-79.

Friday: More clouds than sun with a chance for a few widely scattered showers. High 71-78.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 70-77.

Sunday: More sunshine. High 71-78.

Five Storms in the Atlantic

With the formation of Tropical Storm Vicky this morning, we now have a record-tying five storms in the Atlantic, and there may be another one coming soon.

The Atlantic remains active with 5 named storms this morning. Loop provided by NOAA.

The most immediate threat to the US is Tropical Storm Sally. Sally continues to slowly strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. As of late Monday morning, Sally was centered about 185 miles southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi, moving toward the west-northwest at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Sally. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Sally is expected to track northwestward across the northern Gulf of Mexico while strengthening later today into Tuesday. It will likely become a hurricane by tonight. Current forecasts call for landfall in either southeastern Louisiana or southern Mississippi on Tuesday. Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for much of the region. The location of landfall will have a significant impact on what conditions occur in some locations, namely storm surge. The highest storm surge is usually found near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. A landfall in southeastern Louisiana brings that storm surge to parts of the Louisiana coast and into Mississippi and Alabama. A track a bit farther east spares Louisiana from significant surge, but increases the threat to Mississippi, Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle.

Significant storm surge is likely near and to the east of where the eye makes landfall.

While storm surge and strong winds are significant threats, rainfall will be the most significant issue residents of the Gulf Coast need to prepare for. Sally will be a slow-mover, and could even stall out near or just after landfall. We’ve seen plenty of slow-moving tropical systems dump torrential rainfall on places in recent years, and this system will likely do the same. Rainfall totals of 15-25 inches and possibly heavier will create widespread significant flooding. The heavy rain will also spread well inland, with flooding possible into parts of the Tennessee Valley later this week.

Torrential rainfall is likely along the Gulf Coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While Tropical Storm Sally is a threat to land, Hurricane Paulette impacted land earlier this morning, when it moved directly across the island of Bermuda. Paulette was centered about 65 miles north of Bermuda late this morning, moving toward the north at 14 mph. It has maximum sustained winds near 100 mph, and some additional strengthening is likely over the day or so as it turns more toward the northeast. Paulette is expected to head out into the open Atlantic over the next several days, presenting no additional threat to land.

Radar loop showing Hurricane Paulette approaching Bermuda Sunday night and early Monday. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School

In the central Atlantic, Tropical Depression Rene remains weak late this morning. It is centered about 1100 miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph. Rene is expected to dissipate over open water in the next day or two.

Heading further eastward, we have Tropical Storm Teddy. As of late this morning, Teddy was centered about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds were at 40 mph, and additional strengthening is likely. Teddy could become a hurricane by late Tuesday or Wednesday, and could strengthen into a rather potent storm by later this week. A turn toward the northwest should keep Teddy over open water, though residents of Bermuda should keep an eye on this storm, as it could present a threat to the island by late this weekend or early next week.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Teddy. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Even farther to the east, Tropical Storm Vicky developed this morning. As of late morning, Vicky was centered about 350 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the northwest at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph. Vicky is expected to turn more toward the west over the next day or two while slowly weakening. It will likely dissipate over open water later this week.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Vicky. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

With the formation of Vicky, we now have 5 named storms in the Atlantic. This ties the record for the most named storms at once, originally set between September 11-14, 1971. During September 11-12, 1971, there was also a short-lived tropical depression in the Atlantic, so we had 6 active tropical cyclones, a record that still has not been broken.

As if five storms wasn’t enough. Another tropical wave moved off the coast of West Africa today. Conditions may be favorable for some development over the next few days as it heads westward into the Atlantic.

Weekly Outlook: September 14-20, 2020

When will it rain? The simple answer is not anytime soon. Little to no significant rain is expected for a while.

The week starts off with high pressure building into the region today. We’ll have a relative warm day, but northwest winds will start to usher cooler air into the region by late afternoon and evening. With the high moving across the region for Monday night and Tuesday, temperatures should be much cooler. The high then slides offshore, so we’ll start to warm back up again for Wednesday and Thursday.

Tuesday morning could be quite chilly, especially well north and west of Boston. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A cold front will approach the region late Thursday into Friday, producing a few showers. The wild card with this front is the remnants of Sally. If they get pulled far enough north, they could enhance the rainfall with the cold front, especially along the South Coast. However, the models don’t agree on how far north they will get. Given how the spring and summer have gone, we’re going to lean on the dry side again. High pressure then builds in for next weekend with cool and dry conditions.

Very little rainfall is expected over the next 10 days across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Two things to also take note of for the next few days. With Hurricane Paulette in the Atlantic, we’ll have some rough conditions at the beaches, especially along the south coast, for a few days. High Surf Advisories are currently in effect through Tuesday evening. Also, with the fires out west, some of the smoke will make its way here, creating some hazy conditions at times, and some brilliant sunrises and sunsets.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy. High 71-78.

Monday night: Clear and cool. Low 41-48, a little warmer in the urban areas.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 45-52.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and milder. High 72-79.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers at night. High 75-82.

Friday: Chance for an early shower, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 62-69.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 59-66.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 59-66.

Weekly Outlook: September 7-13, 2020

The late great Dick Albert loved to used abbreviations on his forecasts maps, and we’re going to invoke one of his more common ones for this week’s forecast – MOTS (More Of The Same).

Stop us if you heard this before – we’ll start the week with high pressure in control, providing us with ideal cookout weather for Labor Day – sunshine, warm temperatures, and moderate humidity. As the high slides off to the east, temperatures and humidity levels will creep up a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday.

On average, high temperatures should be in the middle 70s for the middle of September. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll have a cold front move across the region on Thursday, bringing us some showers and thunderstorms, but right now they don’t look that heavy, so the drought we’re in will likely continue to worsen. High pressure builds in behind that front with cooler and drier conditions for Friday and Saturday. Sunday doesn’t look as good, with clouds and some showers possible, but given the recent performance by the models beyond a few days, we’re skeptical as to how wet it will be. We should have a better idea by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

While we may see some rain on Thursday and possibly Sunday, we’re not expecting a lot. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine and plenty of it. High 75-82.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 80-87.

Thursday: More clouds than sun with some showers or thunderstorms possible. High 79-86.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and much cooler. High 68-75.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 71-78.

On a separate note, while our weather has been, and will continue to be fairly quiet, there is some wild weather going on in other parts of the nation. Much of California and the Southwest has been baking in some extreme heat over the weekend. San Francisco set a record high when it reached 100 downtown yesterday and 102 at the airport. The normal high for the day is only 74. Even wilder weather will invade the Rockies and the Plains in the coming days. Denver reached 97 yesterday, tying their record for the day. They should reach 90 again on Monday ahead of a strong cold front. Behind that front, they could receive 6 or more inches of snow on Tuesday. Denver’s record for earliest snow on record is September 3, 1961. On average, they don’t see snow until October 18. In the higher elevations of the Rockies, snowfall totals 1-2 feet or more are possible.

A significant snowstorm is likely in the Rockies tonight and Tuesday. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

We also have a new tropical depression in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression 17 developed last evening. It will likely become Tropical Storm Paulette today, but will remain over open water for the next several days, presenting no threat to land. Another wave in the eastern Atlantic could become a tropical depression or storm in the next day or two as well. The climatological peak of hurricane season is still about 10-14 days away, so the uptick in activity is not a surprise at all.

Weekly Outlook: August 31-September 7, 2020

As we close the book on Meteorological Summer and welcome in Meteorological Autumn, we’ll have some summer-like weather for at least part of the week.

Despite a lack of extreme heat, this will still go down as one of the warmest summers on record across the region. Image provided by the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, providing us with a dry but cool Monday. It won’t be nearly as breezy as Sunday was as the high moves right across the region. Tuesday and Wednesday will both feature some clouds, with a chance for a few showers as a pair of upper-level disturbances move through, but we’re not expecting widespread rainfall. At the same time, low pressure will pass well south of New England. Since it will almost certainly contain at least 1 thunderstorm, and the system itself will probably be rotating, the National Hurricane Center will probably name it. We shouldn’t have anything to worry about here, though it may result in some increasing wave action along the South Coast towards midweek.

By Thursday, things start to change. We’ll turn warmer and more humid thanks to a southwest flow ahead of a cold front. Some places could make a run at 90, which is actually fairly normal for early September. With the warm and humid air comes a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. The cold front itself moves through early Friday, with drier air settling in behind it, though it will likely remain warm.

Temperatures could approach 90 across parts of the area on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure returns on Saturday with cooler and dry conditions to kick off Labor Day Weekend. As the high slides offshore we’ll start to warm up again on Sunday. As for Labor Day itself, it looks like another cold front will approach, with some showers and thunderstorms possible, but we’ll fine-tine that outlook later this week.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon high clouds. High 69-76.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a few afternoon showers. High 70-77.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, some showers may develop during the afternoon. High 72-79.

Thursday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, ending overnight. High 80-87.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 71-78.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Monday: Becoming cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 74-81.

The Atlantic is showing signs of waking up once again. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

One final thought on this final day of Meteorological Summer. The weather patterns across the US are starting to change as we head into a new season. Much cooler air will invade the Rockies and the Plains States later this week and likely linger into next week. Some light snow is possible in parts of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, mainly at elevations above 9000 feet. Meanwhile, there are several areas in the tropics being monitored as you can see in the graphic above. In addition to the system that will pass well south of us, another system in the Caribbean could become a tropical depression and may bring some heavy rain to central America later this week. The parade of tropical waves continues to come off the African coast, and any of those could develop as they cross the Atlantic, though nothing appears imminent. So, even though we’re about the begin autumn, there are elements of both summer and winter showing up across our portion of the world.

Weekly Outlook: August 24-30, 2020

We’ve reached the last full week of meteorological summer, but at least one day this week will likely feel more like fall.

Beneficial rain fell over the weekend, especially along and just south of the Mass Pike. Image provided by NOAA.

We start the week off with another very warm to hot and humid day today. With warm and humid conditions in place, we’ll see showers and thunderstorms develop, mainly during the afternoon hours. While not as potent as yesterday, some storms may produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and possibly some hail. Most of the activity should diminish after sunset, but a warm and muggy night is likely.

Tuesday will be a different story. A strong cold front will be approaching the region. It will likely produce showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening, and many of those storms could become strong to severe. Heavy downpours, strong winds, and hail are all threats with the stronger storms.

There is a slight risk of severe weather across most of the Northeast on Tuesday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Behind that front, high pressure builds in for Wednesday with an early taste of fall for the region. High temperatures will only be in the 70s, with some spots even staying in the upper 60s. Dewpoints will also drop into the 40s and possibly the upper 30s. We could even see some low temperatures drop into the upper 40s Wednesday night. The cool air will be short-lived, as we’ll start to warm back up for Friday. While the warmer air may try to move back in on Thursday, an approaching low pressure system bring bring in clouds and showers, keeping temperatures on the cool side.

Dewpoints in the upper 30s and 40s? We haven’t seen that for a few months, Image provided by WeatherBell.

The weekend is a bit of a question mark at this point. We’ll need to keep an eye on the remains of Laura and possibly Marco. Once they move inland, they’ll rapidly weaken, but the moisture will eventually head this way. Right now it looks like we may see that rain come through late Friday into Saturday, but obviously, it’s dependent on what the storms actually do. High pressure looks to build in for Sunday with cooler and drier weather once again.

Monday: Some patchy fog early, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds with a chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 84-91.

Monday night: Any showers end during the evening, then becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. High 84-91.

Tuesday night: Showers and storms end in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Low 55-62.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, and cooler. High 70-77.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers are possible late in the day and into the evening. High 71-78.

Friday: More clouds than sun with periods of rain and showers during the afternoon and at night. High 77-84.

Saturday: Plenty of clouds with some rain and showers possible. High 75-82.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 72-79.

Weekly Outlook: August 17-23, 2020

As has been the case for a few months now, most of the upcoming week will be dry across the region, but not all of it.

Up to half an inch of rain had fallen across the region through midnight, but much more is needed. Image provided by NOAA.

We did receive some beneficial rainfall across parts of Southern New England on Sunday, and it may linger into this morning, especially across parts of the Cape, before low pressure finally pulls away from the region. However, an upper-level disturbance will move through later today, and it may kick off a few additional showers or even a thunderstorm. This won’t be a widespread beneficial rain, but every little bit helps to alleviate the drought.

Dating back to the beginning of April, rainfall is well below normal across the region. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

High pressure builds in on Tuesday, and remains in place through Friday, with generally dry and seasonably warm conditions expected. Humidity levels will remain comfortable as well, with dewpoints generally in the 50s.

Average high temperatures in mid-August are in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Image provided by Weathernodels.com.

Clouds start to move back in on Saturday and humidity levels start to rise as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will likely produce some showers and thunderstorms later Saturday into Sunday, but the timing will depend on how quickly the front actually crosses the region. We’ll nail down those details in our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Monday: Early clouds and a few showers, then becoming partly sunny with a chance for a few late-day showers. High 73-80, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some more showers possible, mainly during the evening. Low 59-66.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 76-83.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 77-84.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High 82-89.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High 78-85.

Weekly Outlook: August 10-16, 2020

The heat and humidity are back, and they’ll hang around for at least a few days.

We start the week with high pressure in control, pumping warm to hot and humid weather in for Monday and Tuesday. Many places away from the shoreline will top 90, and when the humidity is factored in, it will feel like its in the middle to upper 90s, especially on Tuesday. Heat advisories have been posted for this afternoon and Tuesday for much of interior Southern New England. A couple of pop-up showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but they’ll be few and far between, and even less likely on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be another hot and humid day, but a cold front will be slowly approaching from the west. It will produce some more numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Some of these storms may produce heavy downpours and gusty winds, but for now at least, it doesn’t look like we’ll have widespread severe weather. More showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday before the front finally gets through the region. The front looks like it will stall out just to the south, which will keep clouds and possibly more showers around for Friday, especially south of the Mass Pike. High pressure finally builds in for next weekend with drier and cooler conditions.

Showers and storms will bring in some much-needed rain late this week, but a lot more is needed to help alleviate the drought. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Some patchy fog this morning, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds, just a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, humid. High 85-92, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy, some patchy fog may redevelop. Low 66-73.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid, a very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 89-96.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy and muggy. Low 67-74.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, humid, showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening. High 88-95.

Thursday: More clouds than sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 82-89.

Friday: More showers south of the Mass Pike, mainly during the morning, otherwise, skies gradually clear out from north to south. High 80-87, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 76-83, coolest along the coast.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Tropical Storm Isaias Nears the Carolinas

Tropical Storm Isaias is near the Carolina coastline this afternoon, but struggling to maintain its intensity.

The center of Isaias now shows up on radar off the South Carolina coast. Loop provided by Weathertap

As of 2pm Monday, Tropical Storm Isaias was centered about 115 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina, moving toward the north at 13 mph, though radar and data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft appear to show a motion more toward the north-northeast. The National Hurricane Center says maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, but again, data from reconnaissance aircraft show the system to be weaker than that.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Isaias. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina, and also from Oregon Inlet, North Carolina to the Virginia/North Carolina border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Between Cape Fear and Oregon Inlet, a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect south of South Santee River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, and north of Surf City, all the way to the Mouth of the Merrimack River in Massachusetts, , including Chespeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac, River, Delaware Bay, and Long Island Sound. North of the Merrimack River, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect to Eastport, Maine.

Isaias should continue heading north-northeastward, making landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border this evening. Although the official forecast calls for the storm to strengthen back into a hurricane before landfall, this appears unlikely at this point. There really isn’t much difference between a strong tropical storm and a weak hurricane anyway, so it’s a moot point. Once inland, it should continue on a north-northeast track, moving up the coastline, steered by an upper-level trough moving in from the west. Normally, tropical storms weaken rapidly as they move over land and away from warm water, which is their main source of energy. However, Isaias will be making the transition into an extratropical storm, so it may not weaken that rapidly.

There are a few differences between tropical and extratropical storms.Image provided by the University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography

Storm surge will be a threat along the Carolina coast, near and east of where the center makes landfall. A surge of up to 5 feet above normal tide levels could result in some coastal flooding. Strong winds will also be a threat, mainly east of the storm’s center. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph have been reported just off the South Carolina coastline this afternoon. As it moves northward, some strong winds will be likely across eastern North Carolina as the storm moves inland, and possibly across eastern New England late Tuesday as the system moves across the Northeast.

The strongest winds will be east of the storm’s track and mainly offshore. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By far, the biggest threat with Isaias is heavy rainfall and the resulting flooding. The heaviest rain is likely along and west of the storm’s track. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches and locally heavier are likely from the Carolinas into eastern Canada, which will produce flooding in many areas. The storm’s relatively quick motion will preclude even heavier totals. East of the storm’s track, rainfall will be much lighter, with many places likely seeing less than 1 inch, which won’t help with the drought developing across eastern New England.

Isaias will produce heavy rainfall along and west of its track from the Carolinas into eastern Canada. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Elsewhere, we’re keeping an eye on a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Conditions could become favorable for it to develop into a tropical depression in a few days. Model forecasts show it heading northwestward for the next few days, staying over open water. By mid-week, most forecasts show it stalling out about midway between Bermuda and the Bahamas. It does not look like a threat to any land areas at this time.