Weekend Outlook: December 11-14, 2020

Another stormy weekend is on tap, but it shouldn’t be anywhere near as bad as last weekend was.

High pressure will remain in control of the region into Friday, with generally dry weather and moderating temperatures. However, low pressure will be heading towards the Great Lakes, sending cloudcover our way, though Friday will still be a decent day around here, by mid-December standards at least.

We still need more rain to alleviate drought conditions, and this weekend will help. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

By Saturday, that low will be moving across the Midwest, resulting in a few things happening around here. Some rain will move in late in the day and at night, likely ending Sunday morning. While it’s not expected to be heavy, it will make for a wet Saturday night and Sunday morning. The storm will also send a warm front toward the region, but this is where things get tricky, because we’ll also have a strong high pressure area in southeastern Canada. That high will send cooler air down into the region – meteorologists refer to this as “cold air damming”, as both the mountains to the west and the warm front to the south act as a dam to prevent the cold air from advancing. That warm front likely doesn’t get much past the Mass Pike Saturday night, which keeps areas north of the Pike on the cool side. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure will ride along that front, keeping the cold air locked in from southern New Hampshire into the Merrimack Valley. Temperatures will likely be in the middle to upper 30s in these areas, but if they are just a few degrees cooler, then we may have to worry about the rain becoming freezing rain. If you’ve got plans in these areas Saturday night, keep an eye on the conditions before you head out.

Most of the models show the warm air staying south of the Mass Pike Saturday evening. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

By Sunday, the main low pressure area moves into southeastern Canada, dragging a frontal system across the region. As winds shift into the west, it will scour the cold air out, bringing milder air in. For areas south of the Mass Pike, where the warm air will already be in place, temperatures will actually cool off a bit behind the front on Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday with cooler air drier conditions.

Finally, we’ll just address this now, before the hype gets out of control. Yes, there are some models that show the potential for a snowstorm towards the middle to latter half of next week. However, not all of the models show that. Plus, most of the models have done a relatively poor job forecast beyond about 3-4 days out for quite a while now. So yes, there is the “potential” for something next week. There’s also the “potential” that the Patriots will win the Super Bowl again this season. That’s all it is for now – potential. We’ll address it in a bit more detail in out Weekly Outlook Monday morning, if the potential is still there.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Friday: Sunshine dimmed by afternoon high clouds. High 45-52.

Friday night: Thickening clouds. Low 27-34 north of the Mass Pike, 35-42 south of the Pike.

Saturday: Cloudy with showers developing by late afternoon. High 41-48 north of the Mass Pike, 49-56 south of the Pike.

Saturday night: Scattered showers, possibly some freezing rain across parts of southern New Hampshire. Low 32-39 north of the Mass Pike, 40-47 south of the Pike.

Sunday: Any lingering showers end in the morning, some afternoon sunny breaks are possible. High 47-54.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 30-37.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 37-44.

Weekend Outlook: December 4-7, 2020

It looks like we’ve got some snow coming in this weekend for at least part of the region, but that’s only part of a complex forecast for the next few days.

High pressure will slide offshore later today and tonight while clouds start to stream in ahead of a cold front. That front may produce a few showers on Friday, but most of us will just see some clouds as the front moves through. However, this will set the stage for the next storm.

Enjoy the mild weather on Friday, because changes are coming. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Low pressure currently near the Louisiana coastline will head northeastward tonight, moving up the Appalachians on Friday, then off the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday. At the same time, an upper-level disturbance in Canada will dive southeastward. As these two systems meet up or “phase”, they will create a strengthening low pressure system. The track of that low will determine several things, but the two main ones are how much precipitation will fall, and whether it will be rain or snow. Most of the models bring the storm near Cape Cod or just south of it, but there are others that bring it across southeastern Massachusetts. The farther north and west the low travels, the farther north and west the rain/snow line ends up.

There are still some significant differences among the models for the weekend storm. Images provided by Pivotal Weather

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s get to what we are fairly sure about. Rain will develop across the region early Saturday morning, and may fall heavy at times during the day on Saturday. This will help put another dent in our long-term rainfall deficit. As the low passes by, northerly winds will bring cooler air into the region. There’s not a lot of “cold” air to begin with, but temperatures will likely drop to near or below freezing, which will allow for a changeover to snow, at least north and west of Boston. That changeover is likely to occur Saturday night, but at least one model has it change over much earlier – during the afternoon. Others only have the changeover occur as the precipitation winds down and ends Sunday morning, and at least one other doesn’t have it changeover at all. Obviously when that changeover occurs will have an impact on how much snow (if any) accumulates.

Whether it’s all rain or rain to snow, this will be another heavy precipitation producer. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Right now, we’re expecting a change to snow from northwest to southeast Saturday evening and night, with everything winding down around daybreak Sunday. The snow could be heavy at times during Saturday evening, but should taper off at night as the system starts to pull away. Several inches could accumulate well north and west of Boston, but this is still a bit uncertain. We’re not going to forecast any amounts yet, as there’s not enough confidence yet to come up with specific amounts. We’ll do another blog post just on the storm tomorrow, and at that point we’ll have a specific snowfall forecast.

Skies should start to clear out Sunday afternoon as gusty west to northwest winds will bring drier air in behind the storm. High pressure will start to build in on Monday, but with an upper-level low pressure system moving through, we’ll still have some clouds, and a few rain or snow showers are possible.

Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 32-39.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, becoming breezy, chance for a few showers, mainly south of the Mass Pike during the afternoon. High 49-56.

Friday night: Cloudy with some showers developing. Low 35-42.

Saturday: Cloudy and windy with rain, heavy at times, changing to snow from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire late in the day. High 39-46 early (47-54 across Cape Cod and the Islands), then temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Saturday night: Cloudy and windy with rain changing to snow from northwest to southeast before tapering off and ending toward daybreak. Low 25-32, a little milder across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Sunday: A few lingering rain or snow showers early, then clearing in the afternoon, breezy. High 33-40.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 19-26.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a rain or snow shower. High 32-39.

Thanksgiving Weekend Outlook: November 26-30, 2020

A wet Thanksgiving day appears likely, but much of the rest of the weekend looks dry at this point.

We’ve got plenty of clouds around today, well ahead of a low pressure system moving towards the Great Lakes. As that system continues eastward, we’ll see showers moving in tonight. While temperatures will be fairly mild for most of us, some chilly air is hanging around this afternoon from Southern New Hampshire into north-central Massachusetts and the Merrimack valley. While temperatures are mainly above freezing, a few spots could drop back close to freezing this evening, which may result in a few slippery spots as the rain moves in tonight. Temperatures should gradually rise towards morning even in these areas.

The milder air may never actually make it into Southern New Hampshire on Thanksgiving Day. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Thanksgiving starts out with some rain, but there may be a bit of a lull around early afternoon as the initial batch of rain moves out. A cold front will be approaching from the west, and a secondary area of low pressure will ride up along it, bringing more rain in by late afternoon and evening. There may even be a rumble of thunder with the rain, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts. Temperatures may remain on the cool side from southern New Hampshire into parts of interior Massachusetts, but across eastern Massachusetts, much milder air is expected, with some places, especially near the South Coast, possibly getting close to 60. Everything finally moves offshore during the evening, but skies remain cloudy overnight, with some patchy fog possible as there will be plenty of low-level moisture in place across the area.

The NAM model shows the progression of the storm tonight and Thursday. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits

Friday likely features plenty of clouds but only a slight chance for a shower or two as an upper-level disturbance moves through, but temperatures should be mild in most places, with highs generally reaching the 50s. We finally start to clear out Friday night, with high pressure building in for the weekend with sunshine and cooler temperatures.

Monday will feature more changes. Another storm system will head towards the Great Lakes, sending some more clouds into the region. Right now, it looks like this could be a significant rain-maker for Monday night into Tuesday (and possibly Wednesday). This will help put a big dent into our long term rainfall deficit. This may also turn out to be a significant storm system for portions of the Midwest and East Coast. If this is still looking that way by Friday or Saturday, we’ll likely write up a special blog post about it.

Between Thursday’s storm and the one early next week, much of the region could receive some significant rainfall. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Wednesday night: Cloudy with showers developing after midnight. Low 33-40 in southern New Hampshire and north-central Massachusetts, 41-48 elsewhere.

Thanksgiving Day: Periods of rain and showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder. High 45-52 in southern New Hampshire and north-central Massachusetts, 53-60 elsewhere.

Thursday night: Showers end in the evening, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog likely. Low 36-43 in southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, 44-51 elsewhere.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun, just a slight chance for a late-day shower. High 52-59.

Friday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 36-43.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 28-35.

Sunday: Sunshine. Lots of sunshine. High 44-51.

Sunday night: Clear during the evening, clouds start to move in overnight. Low 29-36.

Monday: Becoming cloudy High 51-58.

Weekend Outlook: November 20-23, 2020

A warming trend is on the way for the weekend, but possibly some rain as well.

After a rather chilly start to the day, temperatures have moderated as high pressure moves offshore. Temperatures will continue to warm up into Friday and Saturday, though as the high moves off to our north and east, winds will shift into the northeast, allowing cooler air to slide back in later on Saturday and into Sunday.

Temperatures bottomed out in the middle teens to middlle 20s across most of the region this morning. Image provided by NOAA.

By later on Sunday, a warm front will move toward the region. Whether or not it makes it all the way through is still a question mark, but parts of the region, especially south of Boston, should see milder air move in for a while on Monday. The milder air will be preceded by some showers Sunday night and early Monday ahead of a cold front. While this won’t be drought-busting rainfall, every little bit helps at this point.

The models don’t agree on how far north the warm air will get on Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 53-60.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 39-46.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 52-59.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy, some low clouds, fog, and drizzle are possible along the coast. Low 27-34.

Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 42-49.

Sunday night: Showers likely, maybe mixed with a little sleet or wet snow at the start up into central New Hampshire. Low 34-41.

Monday: Showers end early, skies may clear out in the afternoon, breezy. High 53-60, possibly a little cooler in southern New Hampshire.

Weekend Outlook: November 13-16, 2020

After several days of sunshine and record-breaking warmth, we’re going to be dealing with cooler conditions and some wet weather at times in the next few days. In other words, welcome to November.

November is off to a very warm start across the Northeast. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Our record warmth is now a memory as a cold front has moved across the region. That front will stall out just to the south tonight, and a wave of low pressure will ride along it on Friday, bringing us some more showers as cooler air continues to settle into the area. Temperatures on Friday will be 25-30 degrees colder than they were on Wednesday.

Average high temperatures for mid-November are in the lower 50s across the area. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in on Saturday with sunshine and temperatures that are more representative of mid-November. Sunday will start off dry, but another cold front will be approaching the region. We should turn milder again ahead of that front, but not nearly to the extent of what we’ve had for the past week. Showers are likely Sunday night into Monday morning as the front moves through. We’ll dry out and turn breezy and cooler again Monday afternoon as that front pushes offshore.

Thursday night: Cloudy with some patchy drizzle and a few showers. Low 37-44.

Friday: Scattered showers. High 46-53, possibly a little cooler north and west of 495.

Friday night: Clearing. Low 32-39.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 44-51.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 26-33.

Sunday: Some morning sun, then clouds move in during the afternoon with showers possible toward evening. High 52-59, possibly cooler in southern New Hampshire.

Sunday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, ending before daybreak. Low 37-44.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 47-54.

Weekend Outlook: November 6-9, 2020

This will likely be the shortest update we’ve ever written. High pressure remains in control right through the weekend and into the start of next week with generally fair weather and unseasonably mild temperatures.

While it’s quite mild here, temperatures will be as much as 20 degrees above normal across the Midwest this weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny, a little breezy at times. High 64-71.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 44-51.

Saturday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 65-72.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 41-48.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 63-70, a little cooler right along the coast.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 41-48.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 64-71.

Weekend Outlook: October 30 – November 2, 2020

We’ve got a little bit of everything coming up in the next few days, but that’s actually fairly typical for autumn.

The weekend starts off on a stormy note as the remains of Zeta pull away tonight while a second system quickly follows. The heaviest rain is expected this evening and the first part of tonight from Zeta’s remains, but as it pulls away, it will draw some colder air into the region just as the second storm moves in. As that colder air moves in, we’ll see the rain mix with and change over to sleet and wet snow, first in the hills of southwestern New Hampshire and central Massachusetts early Friday morning, then across the rest of southern New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts by daybreak or shortly thereafter. Everything should wind down by early afternoon, followed by rapid clearing and diminishing winds (more on this in a moment).

The rainfall tonight and early Friday will be beneficial and help put a dent in the ongoing drought. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Since the National Weather Service has posted Winter Weather Advisories for the interior of the region, you must be expecting some decent snow, right? We don’t think so. Across the hills of Worcester County and the Monadnocks, a few inches may accumulate, possibly a little more on top of the hills. For Southern New Hampshire (Concord-Manchester-Nashua), you could see an inch or so, maybe two inches in a few spots, mainly on grassy surfaces. From the New Hampshire Seacoast into the Merrimack Valley of Massachusetts we’re looking at an inch or less, again mainly on grassy surfaces. For the rest of us, just a mix of rain or snow, maybe enough to coat the grass in some spots, mainly from Metro West to the North Shore.

Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for interior portions of New England. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Why is our forecast for less than most of the TV and NWS forecasts out there? Most of the forecast models are showing the potential for 1-3, possibly as much as 6 inches of snow. However, a lot of people seem to forget a few things. First, those maps assume a 10:1 ratio of snow to liquid (1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow). With temperatures near or just above freezing, the ratio won’t be 10:1, more like 7 or 8 to 1, so that trims to 20-30% off of the map totals. Second. the ground is still relatively mild. While this impact is minor, it just means that the snow won’t stick initially, as it will melt on contact until the ground cools a bit more. So that may take away another 10% of the model totals. Factor those into the model forecasts, and you arrive at the numbers we have.

Once the system pulls away, it will clear out as we mentioned before. Temperatures will drop quickly, likely bottoming out in the 20s across much of the region, maybe even upper teens in some spots. Any roads that are still wet during the evening may start to ice up, especially bridges, overpasses, and elevated roadways. Keep this in mind if you’ll be out Friday night or early Saturday morning. As for Saturday, it’ll be a rather chilly Halloween despite sunshine. High temperatures will only get up into the middle to upper 40s at best.

Temperatures will only be in the 30s Saturday evening, so make sure the kids are dressed properly for trick-or-treating. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Saturday night probably won’t be quite as cold, as winds will shift into the southwest and clouds will start to move in. Sunday will be milder, but with a cold front approaching, a few showers are possible during the afternoon and evening. Much colder air settles in behind that front on Monday, when temperatures will struggle to reach 40 in some spots. We may even see a few flurries. The good news is, it looks like it will start to warm up again later next week, but we’ll have more details on this on our Weekly Outlook Monday morning.

Most of next week should feature temperatures that are near or a little above normal for early November. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Breezy with rain, possibly heavy at times, gradually mixing with and changing over to sleet and wet snow. Low 30-37, except 37-44 across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Friday: Snow or a wintry mix ending around midday, then skies start to clear out with diminishing winds. High 34-41, a little warmer across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Friday night: Clear and chilly. Low 18-25, 26-33 across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Saturday: Sunny and cool. High 40-47.

Saturday night: Clear during the evening, clouds start to move in after midnight. Low 25-32, but temperatures may start to rise a bit after midnight.

Sunday: Cloudy with a few late-day showers possible. High 54-61.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, any showers end during the evening. Low 30-37.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a snow flurry or a sprinkle. High 39-46.

Weekend Outlook: October 23-27, 2020

Temperatures will be riding a rollercoaster around here through the weekend, but as has been the case more often than not recently, little rainfall is expected.

Last week’s rain helped, but much of the region is still experiencing severe to extreme drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

We’re starting off with a sunny and warm afternoon, but high pressure building in tonight will result in some cooler weather for Friday, as winds shift into the east. There may be a little patchy fog again tonight, but otherwise, we’ll have generally clear to partly cloudy skies into Friday.

That high will slide off to our east on Saturday, allowing us to warm back up, but clouds will also be streaming in ahead of a cold front. That cold front will move through during the afternoon, but it will be starved for moisture, so other than a spot shower or two, it should remain dry. However, you will notice the front in the temperature department. Temperatures could approach 70 during the afternoon, but will start to drop pretty quickly behind the front. By Sunday morning, many of us will see temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s. With high pressure building back in on Sunday we’ll have some sunshine, but north to northeast winds will keep temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s all afternoon.

After several mild nights, Sunday morning will be much cooler. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We start heading back up the rollercoaster on Monday as low pressure passes north and west of the region, bringing a warm front through. This will allow us to warm up again, but it may also bring in some showers. They shouldn’t be too heavy or widespread, but at this point, any rain helps with our current drought. As the low moves by, it will drag a cold front through towards evening, with a few more showers possible, and sending temperatures downward again as we head into next week.

Little rainfall is expected between now and Monday evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy with some patchy fog developing. Low 48-55.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 62-69.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, more fog is possible. Low 46-53.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, breezy late in the day, slight chance for a shower. High 65-72.

Saturday night: Clearing. Low 34-41.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds, much cooler. High 47-54.

Sunday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 36-43.

Monday: Cloudy with a chance for some showers. High 56-63.

Weekend Outlook: October 16-19, 2020

After a good soaking a few days ago, we have more rain in our future.

Enjoy today’s weather, because things will be quite different tomorrow afternoon. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

We’ve got a breezy and mild day in progress today, but changes are coming. Clouds will start to stream into the region tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers will develop ahead of this front on Friday, making for a rather damp day. By late in the day, as the front moves into eastern New England, a wave of low pressure will ride along it from the south, bringing in some steadier and heavier rainfall at night. The models still disagree on how much rain we’ll actually get, but they all have come down significantly from the projected totals earlier this week of 2-3 inches, as expected. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if parts of eastern Massachusetts receive less than 1 inch of rain from this system.

A decent slug of rainfall is on the way for the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The front pushes offshore Saturday morning, bringing an end to the rain. We’ll start to clear out behind the front during the afternoon, but it will be breezy and cool. High pressure then builds in for Sunday into Monday with dry and seasonably cool conditions.

It might be on the chilly side if you’re up early Sunday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Increasing clouds. Low 53-60.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with showers developing by midday. High 64-71, but temperatures may drop quickly in the afternoon.

Friday night: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, some of the rain may be heavy. Low 40-47.

Saturday: Rain ending in the morning, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 51-58.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 33-40, a little warmer in urban areas and right along the coast.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 55-62.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 41-48.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 60-67.

Weekend Outlook: October 9-12, 2020

We’ve reached Columbus Day Weekend, or for our friends north of the border, it’s Thanksgiving Weekend. For one day at least, it’s not going to feel like it.

Friday morning will be rather chilly across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Once again, we’ve got a fairly simple forecast for the most part. High pressure remains in control through Saturday. This provides us with cool weather into Saturday. Frost advisories are in effect away from the coastline tonight, as temperatures will drop into the 30s in many areas. If you still have anything in your garden, it’s time to bring it inside. The high slides offshore Friday night, allowing milder air to move back in. In fact, Saturday will be quite warm, with temperatures reaching the 70s for most of us.

Saturday is definitely the better of the weekend days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Sunday is when things start to change. A cold front moves through during the early morning, but there will be little precipitation accompanying it. There may be a few sprinkles or a spot shower, but the vast majority of the region should remain dry. However, much cooler weather will settle back in, with temperatures similar to today and Friday as high pressure builds back in behind the front.

This brings us to Monday, which is a bit of a question mark at this point. What’s left of Hurricane Delta will start moving this way in the form of some shower activity. The high pressure area will still be in control, keeping most of the shower activity from moving in. However, the high will be pushing off to the east, so right now, it looks like we may see some showers start to move in during the afternoon and evening. The day shouldn’t be a washout, and in fact, it may remain dry during the daylight hours. It will stay cool though with plenty of cloud cover.

Will some rain move in on Monday or not? The models don’t all agree on the outcome. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear and chilly. Low 33-40.

Friday: Sunny and cool. High 57-64.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 44-51 during the evening, temperatures will start to rise a bit after midnight.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and warmer. High 71-78.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower late at night. Low 50-57.

Sunday: More clouds than sun. High 59-66.

Sunday night: Plenty of clouds. Low 42-49.

Monday: A few sunny breaks early, otherwise mostly cloudy, showers may develop towards evening. High 56-63.