Weekend Outlook: September 18-21, 2020

Astronomical fall officially begins Tuesday morning at 9:31am. As far as the weather is concerned, fall is going to start tomorrow.

Temperatures are going to turn much cooler, but we’re still not expecting much, if any, rain for the next several days, so our drought situation will continue to get worse. A cold front will move across the region tonight, but it will be starved for moisture, so aside from a few very widely scattered showers, we’re not expecting any rain for most of us. There may be a few appreciable showers along the South Coast and across the Cape, but for the rest of us, you’ll probably be able to count the number of raindrops that fall on one hand.

Little to no rainfall is expected through Monday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

After that, high pressure starts to build in behind the front on Friday and remains with us right through the weekend. This will give us plenty of sunshine for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but it will remain on the cool side. Some places may not even reach 60 during the afternoons. What about at night? If you’ve got some plants outside, or still growing in the garden, it’s time to bring them inside. There’s a good shot at the first frost for portions of the region. Welcome to Autumn.

Saturday morning looks quite cool, but Sunday morning could be a few degrees cooler. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Finally, we’ll briefly talk about the tropics, though we’re expecting to write a much more detailed post about them tomorrow. What’s left of Sally will bring heavy rain to the Carolinas today, then move offshore, sending some clouds our way tonight and early Friday, but the rain should stay to the south. A disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico may become a Tropical Depression later today or tomorrow. What impact it has on Mexico and/or Texas remains to be seen. Tropical Depression Vicky should dissipate in the Central Atlantic today or tomorrow. Then there’s Hurricane Teddy. Teddy is going to become a pretty powerful storm in the next day or two. The current track brings it very close to Bermuda early Monday. Bermuda just got hit hard by Paulette, and here were are talking about another hurricane just a week later. Beyond that, Teddy likely heads northward, and could impact parts of Nova Scotia towards mid-week unless it hooks more quickly and heads out to sea. Now, you may have heard some of the media talking yesterday about the potential for Teddy to head our way. This is because one model (which has performed very poorly for several months now) showed a track that brought the storm closer, or even made landfall in Maine. In fact, one unnamed Boston TV meteorologist went so far as to show a map based on this model with a wind forecast for the region for next Tuesday (we can think of several words to describe this, but we’ll settle for STUPID). This is the equivalent of showing a model forecast snowfall map on Wednesday for a storm that one model shows might hit us next Tuesday. (Wait, they already do that too) The odds of Teddy impacting our area are extremely low (maybe not zero, but close enough). We long for the days when our local TV meteorologists just came on and provided a weather forecast for the next 3-5 days, and didn’t try and hype up everything.

There are still three named storms out there, though two of them are now tropical depression. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Thursday night: Plenty of clouds, a few torrential sprinkles are possible, especially near the South Coast. Low 50-57.

Friday: Morning clouds, maybe even another raindrop or two across the Cape and the Islands, then skies start to clear out in the afternoon, but it will turn much cooler. High 58-65.

Friday night: Mostly clear and chilly. Low 37-44, a little warmer in the urban areas. A little patchy frost is possible in a few f the colder spots.

Saturday: Sunshine and possibly a few high clouds near the South Coast. High 57-64.

Saturday night: Clear and chilly again. Low 35-42, a little warmer in the urban areas. Some frost is possible, especially in the normally cooler locations.

Sunday: Wall-to-wall sunshine. High 56-63.

Sunday night: Clear skies, still chilly. Low 38-45, a little warmer in the urban areas.

Monday: Sunshine. Nothing but sunshine. High 58-65.

Weekend Outlook: September 11-14, 2020

At the risk of sounding like a broken record – we need rain, quite a bit of it in fact. We’ll get a little this weekend, but not much.

We’re getting some rain today and tonight as a cold front moves in from the northwest and a stream of tropical moisture moves up from the south. While some of this rain may be heavy, the bulk of the heavy rain won’t impact much of the region. The rain should end tonight from northwest to southeast as the cold front pushes through and then offshore.

The longer we go without significant rain, the worse the drought gets. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Behind the front high pressure builds in on Friday with much cooler and less humid conditions. This is the same airmass the produced record lows across the nation’s mid-section over the past few days, but obviously, it will be modified significantly by the time it arrives here. Still, highs will only be in the upper 60s and 70s on Friday and Saturday, with nighttime lows dropping into the 40s in some spots.

Normal low temperatures for the middle of September are in the lower to middle 50s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

By Sunday, we’ll start to warm up again as another cold front approaches from the west. This front will produce some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder, but the day won’t be a washout, as most of the shower activity should hold off until late in the day or at night. Some of the models are hinting at the possibility of some heavy rain with this front, but we’re not buying that at the moment. Of course, many of us will be on our couches Sunday afternoon watching the start of the NFL season. For the Patriots game, kickoff conditions should feature mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the lower to middle 70s, and southerly winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Any rain should hold off until after the game.

The Cam Newton Era will begin under mostly cloudy skies on Sunday.

Any showers will comes to an end Monday morning as the front moves through, then skies will clear out once again. Gusty northwest winds will usher cooler air back in, but most of the day should remain fairly mild.

At least one model thinks parts of the region may receive no rain at all Sunday night or Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Periods of rain and showers gradually ending. Low 58-65.

Friday: Skies gradually become partly to mostly sunny. High 67-74.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 47-54, a little warmer in some of the urban areas.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, though some clouds may start to move in late in the day. High 65-72.

Saturday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48-55, a little warmer in some of the urban areas.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, showers develop late in the day. High 70-77.

Sunday night: Cloudy with a chance of showers, possibly a rumble of thunder. Low 60-67.

Monday: Showers end early, then skies gradually clear out, breezy. High 72-79.

Labor Day Weekend Outlook: September 4-7, 2020

Labor Day Weekend is the “traditional” end to summer, and this one will be a lot like most of the summer has been – dry.

Yes, we’ll say it again – we really need some rain. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

This forecast will be fairly brief, because there’s not a lot to talk about. A cold front moves through tonight, bringing an end to the showers we’ll have this afternoon and evening. High pressure then builds in for Friday and the weekend. Friday will remain quite warm, but noticeably less humid. We’ll cool off a bit for Saturday, but then we’ll start to warm up again for Sunday and Monday, with humidity levels starting to creep up once again.

High temperatures should be well into the 80s across the region on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Any lingering showers come to an end, the skies start to clear out late at night. Low 63-70.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 80-87.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 52-59.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 70-77.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 52-59.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.

Labor Day: Partly to mostly sunny. High 76-83.

Weekend Outlook: August 28-31, 2020

We’ve reached the final days of not only August, but meteorological summer, and some of them may not feel like summer.

A warm front will get hung up to our south today, keeping most of the severe weather well south and west of us. In fact, it’ll stay far enough south that high pressure will build in for Friday. This will bring us some sunshine and milder temperatures. However, this dry weather will be short-lived.

Another system will approach on Saturday, bringing some showers and possibly some thunderstorms into the region. We may be dealing with a situation similar to today where a warm front struggles to move into the region, which could keep some areas on the cool side. This front looks to have at least a little more push than today’s as the parent low will likely move across Northern New England, but we’ll have to see keep an eye on it.

Complicating things even more will be the remnants of Laura moving off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and passing south and east of New England. Laura won’t be tropical any more, but as the system moves back out over water, it may start to strengthen a little bit as an extratropical system. If it is far enough north, some of the moisture from it could stream northward as a cold front moves across the region. This could enhance the rainfall, making for a very wet time late Saturday and Saturday evening, especially along the South Coast.

Saturday’s system could bring some much-needed rainfall to the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Once the cold front moves offshore Saturday night, high pressure will build back in for Sunday and Monday. This will bring a return to sunshine and seasonably mild conditions for the final days of August.

High pressure brings in dry and seasonably mild air for Sunday and Monday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: A few showers or thunderstorms along the south coast during the evening, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62, possibly a little cooler across southern NH and the NH Seacoast.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 77-84.

Friday night: Clouds return with showers developing after midnight. Low 60-67.

Saturday: Cloudy with periods of showers and thunderstorms. High 75-82.

Saturday night: Showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, then skies clear out towards daybreak. Low 59-66.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 72-79.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 50-57.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 70-77, coolest along the coast.

Weekend Outlook: August 21-24, 2020

We need some rain, and there’s some in the forecast, but we need a lot more.

We’ve had a little rain, but we need a lot more, as the drought is getting worse. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

With high pressure sliding offshore, a warming trend is expected for Friday into Saturday, along with an increase in humidity levels. We’ll remain sunny on Friday, but may see a few more clouds on Saturday. A shower or thunderstorm may pop up here or there on Saturday, but they’ll be few and far between.

By Sunday, things start to change. An upper-level disturbance will head toward the region, bringing us more clouds, along with some showers and thunderstorms. A few of them may produce gusty winds and downpours, but this does not look like a widespread severe outbreak. It also doesn’t look like the widespread rain that we need, but every little bit helps. A cold front then moves through on Monday, with more showers and thunderstorms possible.

We’re not expecting a lot of rain between now and Monday evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.

Friday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 83-90.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Sunday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. High 83-90.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. High 83-90.

There are two tropical depressions in the Atlantic at the moment. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

In the tropics, Tropical Depression 14 is moving into the western Caribbean and Tropical Depression 13 is approaching the Leeward Islands. The former will be a threat to parts of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, and the latter to the Leeward Islands as well as Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. We’ll have a much more detailed blog post about the tropics Friday afternoon or evening.

Weekend Outlook: August 14-17, 2020

We’ve got a tug-of-war this weekend between high pressure to our northeast and a frontal boundary stalled out to the south. For the most part, the high should win out.

The late-morning surface analysis shows high pressure buolding into northern new England and a frontal stalled near the South Coast. Image provided by the Weather Predicition Center.

As high pressure builds in, drier air has also settled in, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s across much of the region. While we’ll still be warm today, cooler air will gradually settle in over the next few days, thanks mainly to east to northeast winds off of the Atlantic. The ocean is about the warmest it will get around here during the year, but it’s still only in the 60s and lower 70s east of New England, so winds blowing off the water will still have a cooling effect, especially along the coastline.

Current sea-surface temperature analysis. Image provided by NOAA.

Meanwhile, that front to the south will keep some clouds around, especially along the South Coast. A couple of waves of low pressure will ride along this front. They’ll bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic states, where flash flood watches and warnings remain in effect, but around here, they won’t do much for now. The first wave should pass harmlessly south of the region, except for possibly a few showers along the south coast this afternoon and evening. It’s the second wave, for late Sunday and Monday, that we’re keeping an eye on. Many of the models have it coming in farther north, bringing us some showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. However, we’ve also had plenty of times recently when the models have been trying to bring in widespread showers a few days out, and they just haven’t materialized. As we’ve said several times, the old forecaster’s adage is “When in Drought, Leave it Out”. We wouldn’t be surprised if the high pressure area wins out again, and most of us stay dry Sunday night and Monday too.

The latest Drought Monitor shows the drought worsening across the Northeast. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86, coolest along the coast.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 73-80, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few showers. High 72-79.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for some showers. Low 61-68.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, some showers are also possible. High 75-82.

Forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Josephine. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Finally, we’ll briefly mention Tropical Storm Josephine. Tropical Depression 11 strengthened into Tropical Storm Josephine this morning. As of midday, it was centered a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph. Josephine may strengthen a little more in the next day or so, but after that, it will be moving into some rather unfavorable conditions. The current forecast calls for it to pass north of the Antilles this weekend, by which point strong wind shear could rip the system apart. It will likely dissipate without threatening any land areas. Even if it does survive, it will start to recurve and head out to sea north of the Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas.

Weekend Outlook: August 7-10, 2020

It won’t be all sunshine and warm temperatures, but we should be able to salvage a decent weekend around here.

The high pressure system providing us with a nice day today will slide off to the east tonight, while a weak low pressure system moves along a frontal boundary that has stalled out to our south. That will send clouds our way tonight and Friday. Some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm are expected on Friday as the front tries to lift northward, but they’ll likely be confined to areas south of the Mass Pike. With plenty of cloud cover and east to northeast winds, it definitely be cooler than it has been for a while.

Temperatures may stay in the 70s all day Friday across much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As we get to Saturday, a weak upper-level disturbance will move across the region. We’ll still have plenty of clouds, especially early, with a few showers or thunderstorms possible as the disturbance moves through. However, once it exits, skies should start to clear out late in the day, and we’ll get a bit warmer. High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday, with warm and humid conditions returning to the area.

The drought will continue to get worse until we get some significant rain on a regular basis. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 74-81.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 60-67.

Saturday: Cloudy with some showers or a thunderstorm early, some sunshine develops in the afternoon. High 75-82.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 83-90.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 64-71.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93.

Weekend Outlook: July 30-August 3, 2020

We’ll have a little bit of everything in the next few days, warm temperatures, high humidity, low humidity, thunderstorms, and maybe a tropical system.

A cold front will slowly cross the region today, with warm and humid conditions ahead of it. The front may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, somke of which could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

Some thunderstorms may move across the region ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

The front may hang up near the South Coast early Friday, otherwise, everyone else should start to clear out with drier air settling in. High pressure builds in for the rest of the day on Friday and into Saturday with seasonably warm temperatures but comfortable humidity levels.

Dewpoints will drop into the 50s across much of the region on Friday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Low pressure starts to move toward the region on Sunday, with a war front bringing in more humid conditions, along with the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms. With some cloud cover it shouldn’t be as hot as recent days, but it will be quite warm.

This sets the stage for Monday, which is a VERY uncertain forecast at this time. We’ll need to keep an eye on what happens with Tropical Storm Isaias. Some models show the potential for the storm or its remnants to move up the coast either Monday or Tuesday. At this point, we really can’t rule out any scenario. It’s still too early to determine what, if any, impact it has up here, but we should start to get a better idea over the next couple of days. We’ll likely have multiple blog posts about Isaias between this evening and this week, so we’ll keep you informed.

Will Isaias head up the coast? It looks that way, but exactly where is still a question. Image providsed by WeatherBell.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 85-92.

Thursday night: Showers gradually ending along the South Coast, skies start to clear out north of the Mass Pike. Low 64-71.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and less humid. High 81-88.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 84-91.

Saturday night: Increasing clouds. Low 63-70.

Sunday: More clouds than sunshine with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 80-87.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 67-74.

Monday: Partly sunny with a chance for a hurricane. Plenty of clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 84-91.

Weekend Outlook: July 24-27, 2020

This outlook will be rather brief, because the forecast is rather simple. We’ll dry out today and Saturday, then heat and humidity return for Sunday and Monday.

Monday looks to be the hottest day, when the heat index could reach 100 in some spots. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and less humid. High 80-87.

Friday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 63-70.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 83-90.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, hot, and humid. High 88-95.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy and muggy. Low 69-76.

Monday: Partly sunny, hot, and humid. High 89-96.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo looks healthier and TD 8 has become Tropical Storm Hanna in the Gulf of Mexico. Loop provided by NOAA.

We’ll likely publish another blog on the tropics late Friday, but here’s a quick update for you. Tropical Depression 8 has become Tropical Storm Hanna. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for much of the Central and Southern Texas coast, all the way to the mouth of the Rio Grande. A track towards South Texas is likely with landfall on Saturday. Heavy rain is still the main threat. Tropical Storm Gonzalo looks a little healthier this evening, and will likely cross the southern Windward Islands on Saturday. Once it gets past the islands, its future is still very uncertain. In the Eastern Pacific, Douglas is now a Category 4 Hurricane, but will likely start to weaken today. It should pass very close to or right across the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday as either a weakening hurricane or a strong tropical storm.

Weekend Outlook: July 17-20, 2020

Your air conditioner has gotten a much-needed rest for the past few days, but it’s about to get a workout. Some typical summertime weather is coming up for the weekend with heat and humidity settling into New England.

Midday temperatures in the 70s in mid-July? It doesn’t get much better than that. Image provided by NOAA.

High pressure remains in control today with mild temperatures (a little below normal for mid-July) and comfrtoable humidity levels, but that’s about to change. A warm front will send clouds into the region tonight, with some showers and thunderstorms likely on Friday. Most of the storms shouldn’t be that strong, but could contain some heavy downpours. We’re not expecting much, if any, severe weather. Temperatures will remain a little below normal, but it will be breezy and significantly more humid.

Dewpoints could reach the lower to middle 70s by Monday across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in for the weekend and with it comes the heat and humidity. Temperatures will be near or above 90 on Saturday, and should be in the 90s away from the South Coast for Sunday and Monday. Dewpoints will likely get above 70 for Sunday and Monday as well, so it will be quite uncomfortable if you’re outside for any length of time, as the heat index will be apporoaching (or even exceeding) 100 in some spots. We may get a little relief Monday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves through, triggering a few showers and thunderstorms, but that’s about it.

The heat index will be near or over 100 across the region Monday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thinking about heading to the beach or out on a boat? Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s at beaches along the South Coast and lower to middle 80s at beaches along the east coast this weekend. You’ll have south winds 10-15 mph on Friday, becoming southwest over the weekend, and seas generally 1-3 feet. With a UV Index in the very high range, you’ll start to get a sunburn in just 15 minutes or so, so make sure you put on sunscreen!

Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, a few showers are possible towards daybreak. Low 56-63.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 71-78.

Friday night: Clearing. Low 63-70.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, humid. High 86-93.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 65-72.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. High 90-97, a little cooler right at the coast.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 71-78.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, hot, and humid, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 90-97, a little cooler right at the coast.