Weekend Outlook: August 13-16, 2021

Heat and humidity are here for now, but changes are on the way this weekend.

High pressure remains anchored off the East Coast into Friday, which means that another hot and humid day is on the way. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up to take the edge off the heat, but they’ll be mainly late in the day. A cold front will move in on Saturday though, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, much drier and cooler air will start to move in late Saturday. High pressure builds in for Sunday and Monday with seasonably warm and dry conditions.

The heat index may approach 100 across parts of the region again Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 69-76.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, hot, and humid, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 88-95.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers or thunderstorms around, mainly during the evening. Low 69-76.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 60-67.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds, not as humid. High 77-84.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Weekend Outlook: August 6-9, 2021

After a good soaking this morning, drier air is on the way, but the weekend won’t be completely dry.

Much of Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts received 2-4 inches of rain in the past 24 hours. Image provided by NOAA.

High pressure starts to build into the region tonight, with skies clearing out by Friday morning across much of the region. This sets up a rather nice day on Friday with sunshine and warmer temperatures. A good chunk of Saturday looks decent too, but an approaching disturbance will spread clouds in, with some showers possible at night and into parts of Sunday as it moves through. Sunday won’t be a washout, but it will be cloudy and a little cooler with some showers around. High pressure builds back in on Monday with some sunshine returning.

Saturday looks quite warm across the area. Image provided by WeatherNBell.

Thursday night: Gradual clearing. Low 58-65.

Friday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 80-87. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-10 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Saturday: Thickening clouds. High 82-89. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 63-70.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds with some showers around. High 77-84. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 61-68.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82. Offshore: Southeast winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

The Atlantic is starting to wake up once again. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Finally, we’ll touch on the tropics, since we’re into August, which is when activity usually starts to ramp up, and this year is no different. There are two areas being watched in the Atlantic right now. The first wave will bring some showers and breezy conditions to the Caribbean this weekend and early next week, but shouldn’t amount to much. It’s the wave that is just moving off of Africa that bears watching. Some of the models show that system developing over the next several days. Obviously it’s WAAAAAAY to early to determine if it will become anything or impact any land, but these waves will become more common over the next several weeks, with many storms expected to form. Colorado State University issued their updated hurricane season forecast this morning, and they are expecting another 13 named storms this season. Late August and most of September is when we especially need to be alert up here. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.

Weekend Outlook: July 30-August 2, 2021

We’re entering the final days of July, but part of the weekend may feel more like the final days of August.

We’ve got a rather nice afternoon in progress, but changes are coming. A cold front will move across the region tonight, with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall, which would be a fitting end to what has been a record or near-record July for rainfall across the region. While most of the severe weather associated with this system should remain south of our area, we need to keep an eye on areas near the South Coast overnight. If there are going to be any severe storms, this would be the most likely spot.

Most of the models keep the heavy rain to our north, but some have heavy rainfall around here too. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Rain ends Friday morning, but with an upper-level low pressure area moving across the Northeast, we’ll still have some clouds, and possibly another shower or two in the afternoon. High pressure then builds in with clearing and a rather cool airmass settling in for Friday night and Saturday. If you’re up early Saturday morning, you might see temperatures in the 40s in some spots. After a comfortable day on Saturday, temperatures will moderate again on Sunday ahead of another system. This system may produce a few showers Sunday night, then high pressure returns on Monday.

It could be rather cool around here Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 62-69.

Friday: Showers end early followed by partial clearing, though clouds and possibly another shower return in the afternoon, breezy. High 77-84. Offshore: Southwest to west 10-15 knots gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Friday night: Clear and cool. Low 49-56.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77. Offshore: West 10-15 knots gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-5 feet.

Saturday night: Increasing clouds. Low 52-59.

Sunday: More clouds than sunshine. High 73-80. Offshore: Southwest 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for some shower. Low 56-63.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 74-81. Offshore: West 5-10 knots, seas 3-5 feet.

Weekend Outlook: July 23-26, 2021

Now that the sun has finally returned, we might actually see it more than a few times over the next few days. Don’t worry, there’s still some rain in the forecast too.

Just some fair-weather cumulus out there today – a welcome change from the last several days. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

High pressure will continue to build in tonight, which means that you might be able to give the air conditioner a break and open the windows tonight. We will see some clouds come back on Friday as a weak disturbance crosses the region, with a shower or thunderstorm possible in a few spots as well, but don’t go cancelling any outdoor plans you may have for the afternoon or evening. High pressure returns on Saturday with sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures. The next system will be on its way though, with clouds moving in at night, and some showers and thunderstorms likely on Sunday as a warm front crosses the region. The day won’t be a washout, but there will be plenty of cloudcover and it will be noticeably more humid than Saturday. Showers may linger into early Monday before a cold front crosses the region, with some clearing behind it late in the day.

Monday could end up as a warm day ahead of the cold front. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few late-day showers or thunderstorms. High 74-81. Offshore: Northwest winds 5-10 knots becoming onshore in the afternoon, seas 1-3 feet.

Friday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 55-62.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, though some clouds may start to move back in late in the day. High 74-81. Offshore: North to northwest winds around 5 knots becoming onshore in the afternoon, seas 2-3 feet.

Saturday night: Increasing clouds, showers are possible towards daybreak. Low 60-67.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with some showers or thunderstorms expected. High 73-80. Offshore: Southwest to south winds 15-20 knots, gusts to 25 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for more showers or storms. Low 63-70.

Monday: Chance for a shower early, some clearing possible late in the day. High 80-87. Offshore: Southwest to west winds 10-15 knots gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Weekend Outlook: July 16-19, 2021

We’re in a typical summertime pattern for a few days, but more rain is on the way.

High pressure is sitting offshore, which means another hot and humid day is expected on Friday, with temperatures well into the 80s and lower 90s in most locations. A few late-day showers and thunderstorms are possible, but activity shouldn’t be that widespread. An approaching frontal system will spread more clouds in for Saturday, keeping temperatures down a bit, with a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially late Saturday and Saturday night. Some of these storms may produce heavy rain, because that’s what seems to happen with every storm this month. That front will stall out near or just south of the region for Sunday and Monday. That means it’ll be cooler with more cloud cover and a chance for more showers and thunderstorms, though areas near the South Coast could remain warmer, depending on where the front actually stalls out.

Some heavy rain is possible across parts of the region this weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 85-92.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, any showers end in the evening. Low 64-71.

Saturday: Plenty of clouds, showers and thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon. High 79-86.

Saturday night: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce heavy rain. Low 63-70.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. High 72-79.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: More clouds than sun with a shower or thunderstorm possible. High 74-81.

Weekend Outlook: July 9-12, 2021

We’re not sure if you’ve heard, but Tropical Storm Elsa is heading this way. It have have some impacts around here tonight and Friday.

Flash Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Northeast, with Tropical Storm Warnings along the coast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

As of 2pm EDT, Elsa was centered about 25 miles southwest of Raleigh, NC and moving toward the northeast at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are down to 45 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Connecticut from New Haven eastward, coastal Rhode Island, and nearly all of the coast of Massachusetts from the Mouth of the Merrimack River southward (sorry Salisbury, you don’t get to play), including Cape Cod and the Islands. Elsa will continue northeastward tonight, turning more toward the east-northeast on Friday, likely passing right across southeastern Massachusetts.

Winds may gust to 40 mph or more across parts of RI and southeastern MA on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Tropical systems have different characteristics when they get up this way, compared to how they look in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. They take on a “rain to the left, wind to the right” appearance. This means that the heavy rain shifts to the left side of the storms track, while most of the strong winds are to the right of the track. In this case, that means most of the wind will be confined to parts of southern RI, southeastern MA, and the offshore waters, but much of the rest of the region can expect heavy rain. How much rain? Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches and possibly heavier, most of it falling between about 8am and 2pm on Friday. Oh, an just to add to the fun for the folks in southern RI and southeastern MA, these systems can and usually do produce some short-lived weak tornadoes, mainly in the right-front quadrant of the storm.

Elsa will produce heavy rain, especially north and west of I-95. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Before Elsa gets here, we’ll have some showers and thunderstorms to deal with this evening and tonight, thanks to a stalled out frontal system draped across the South Coast. Once Elsa’s rain moves out late Friday, high pressure will try to build back in on Saturday, but we’ll still have plenty of moisture around, which means we could pop a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Warm and humid air moves back in for Sunday and Monday (and into the middle of next week), with some showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon, especially Monday.

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Rain and showers redevelop late at night. Low 60-67, a little warmer along the South Coast.

Friday: Windy with rain, heavy at times, tapering off in the afternoon. High 72-79. Offshore: East Coast Southeast 15-25 knots, gusts to 40 knots, becoming northwest late in the day, seas 3-6 feet. South Coast: Southeast to south winds 20-40 knots, gusts to 50 knots, seas 6-10 feet.

Friday night: Showers end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 73-80. Offshore: West to northwest 5-10 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a shower or thunderstorm is possible during the afternoon. High 75-82. Offshore: East to southeast winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: Partly sunny, chance for a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 77-84. Offshore: South winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Weekend Outlook: July 2-5, 2021

It’s a long holiday weekend for most of you, but unfortunately, it’s not going to be all sunshine and warm temperatures.

What’s left of the warm and humid weather disappears overnight as a frontal boundary settles south of the region. This will bring in showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce heavy rain. The front stalls out to our south on Friday, with waves of low pressure riding along it, bringing in more showers, along with much cooler conditions. Some of the models are forecasting very heavy rainfall across the region, which could lead to some areas of flooding. We’re not quite sure we believe some of these numbers, but your lawn should definitely get a big drink of water over the next few days.

Parts of the region could see quite a bit of rain this weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather,

Over the weekend, the front washes out, but an upper-level low pressure system will slowly move across the region. This will keep clouds and cool temperatures in place, especially on Saturday, with some occasional showers, but neither day looks to be a washout. While Sunday isn’t ideal barbecue weather for the Fourth of July, it may not be THAT bad. Just keep an eye on the radar if you do have outdoor plans. By Monday, the upper low moves out, and we get back into sunshine and temperatures closer to normal for early July.

Some models try to keep it very cool around here on Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

In the tropics, Tropical Storm Elsa was centered about 345 miles east-southeast of Barbados this evening, moving toward the west-northwest at 28 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for various islands in the eastern and northern Caribbean. The current forecast calls for some strengthening, as conditions remain favorable for the next day or so, but unless it slows down, it won’t strengthen too much. We’ll take a much more in-depth look at Elsa in a special blog post either Friday afternoon or evening.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Elsa. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Thursday night: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers and some embedded thunderstorms. Low 59-66, a little milder near the South Coast.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with more showers, especially in the morning. High 64-71. Offshore: Winds becoming northeast to north 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-6 feet, visibility under 1 mile in showers and fog.

Friday night: Plenty of clouds with more showers likely. Low 53-60.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and cool with occasional showers. High 59-66. Offshore: Northeast 10-20 knots gusts to 25 knots, seas 3-6 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and fog.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 51-58.

Fourth of July: Clouds and some sunny breaks with more showers possible. High 65-72. Offshore: Northwest 10-15 knots, seas 3-6 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and fog.

Sunday night: Showers end in the evening, some clearing late at night. Low 52-59.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 74-81. Offshore: Southwest 10-20 knots, seas 3-5 feet, visibility 10 miles or better.

Weekend Outlook: June 25-28, 2021

The first full weekend of summer will feature a return of humidity and heat to the region.

A warm front will cross the region late tonight and early Friday. A few showers may accompany the front, maybe even a rumble of thunder, but they should be gone before midday, and they shouldn’t be that heavy either. Skies will start to clear out in the afternoon, and you’ll start to notice the increase in humidity. With the cloud cover likely hanging on through early afternoon, temperatures may not get that warm, especially along the Maine and New Hampshire Seacoast, where the front will take the longest to move through.

Dewpoints will jump into the middle to upper 60s on Saturday behind the warm front. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The rest of the weekend and Monday will feature typical summertime weather, with sunshine and afternoon clouds, along with a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms. We’ll have a frontal boundary well to our north and west, so we shouldn’t expect any organized severe weather with the front too far away, but any storms that do form could produce some localized downpours and gusty winds. In terms of temperatures, Sunday and Monday look quite toasty, and some models have temperatures getting well into the 90s away from the South Coast. The heat and humidity look to persist into at least the middle of next week.

Monday is looking like it’s going to be hot. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Increasing clouds with some showers possible late at night. Low 51-58, but temperatures may start to rise a bit after midnight, especially south of Boston

Friday: Any showers ending in the morning, some partial sunshine develops in the afternoon. High 72-79. Offshore: Southeast to south winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Saturday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 80-87. Offshore: South to southwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92, cooler along the South Coast. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-20 knots, seas 3-5 feet.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 67-74.

Monday: Partly sunny, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89-96, cooler along the South Coast. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-20 knots, seas 3-5 feet.

Finally, we’re just going to touch on a couple of other topics. As you may have heard, some incredible heat is expected in the Pacific Northwest this weekend and early next week. Places like Portland, Seattle, and Spokane could shatter all-time records, with temperatures possibly topping 110 degrees. Meanwhile, in the tropics, a rather robust wave has moved off the coast of Africa, and some of the models show the potential for this wave to develop as it crosses the Atlantic. It’s a little early in the season for easterly waves, but we’ll keep an eye on its progress. We plan to write a special blog post on Friday that will cover both of these topics in greater detail.

Weekend Outlook: June 18-21, 2021

Summer officially starts Sunday night, but the last weekend of Spring is looking pretty good for the most part.

Aside from some pop-up cumulus, it’s a picture-perfect day across the region. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

High pressure remains in control into Friday with more sunshine and warm temperatures as the high slides offshore. Humidity levels may start to creep up a bit on Friday, but it will still be comfortable. Low pressure will be heading into southern Canada later on Friday, and it will send a warm front our way at night. As that front moves through early Saturday morning, it may produce a few showers or thunderstorms. Not a big deal, and they should be done before most of you have finished your breakfast (or even gotten out of bed). Some sunshine may break out in the afternoon, and it will be quite warm and humid. A cold front will sweep across the region during the afternoon and evening. That front will produce another round of showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the timing of the front, some of those storms could become strong to possibly even severe. Don’t go cancelling any late-afternoon or evening plans, but if you’ll be outside, keep an eye to the sky.

High pressure builds back in on Sunday for the final day of Spring (the Summer Solstice occurs at 11:31pm Sunday night) with lower humidity, but it will remain quite warm. Humidity levels and temperatures will creep back up on Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Any shower or thunderstorm activity with this system should hold off until after dark.

We’ll give a quick mention about the tropics here as well. There are no active systems at this time, but there is a cluster of thunderstorms in the western Gulf of Mexico that is being monitored. It will likely become a tropical depression, possibly as early as tonight, then head northward. It should bring some heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast and Deep South this weekend. The National Hurricane Center is going to start issuing advisories on “Potential Tropical Cyclone Three” at 5pm EDT. We’ll likely write a blog post about the system either late tonight or tomorrow, once it actually becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm. Beyond that, some of the moisture from this system could interact with the cold front approaching us Monday night, but it’s still a little early to determine if that will happen or not. We’ll have a better idea by the time we issue our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Satellite loop of the Gulf of Mexico where a tropical depression will likely develop tonight or tomorrow. Loop provided by NOAA.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.

Friday: Morning sunshine starts to fade behind increasing late-day clouds. High 77-84. Offshore: Southwest to south winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms late at night. Low 59-66.

Saturday: A few early showers, then becoming partly sunny. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible late in the day. High 80-87. Offshore: Southwest to south winds 10-20 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Saturday night: Showers and storms end in the evening followed by clearing. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 81-88. Offshore: Southwest to south winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday night: Clear during the evening, clouds start to filter in late at night. Low 59-66.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 85-92, cooler along the South Coast. Offshore: South winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Weekend Outlook: June 11-14, 2021

The heat and humidity are gone, and won’t be back for a while, but that doesn’t mean the weather will be perfect this weekend.

The first 9 days of June have averaged 4-8 degrees above normal across the region. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

High pressure settles in for Friday with dry and cool conditions. A weak frontal system will drop southward Friday night, possibly producing a few showers across the region late Friday night or early Saturday morning. High pressure builds back in for Saturday afternoon and evening with sunshine returning. It will remain cool, with easterly winds keeping locations right along the coast in the 60s. We’ll start to warm up again on Sunday, but another system approaches the region with some showers and possibly thunderstorms later Sunday and Sunday night. As that system slows down, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible on Monday.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 67-74. Offshore: Northwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet, unlimited visibility.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly in southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. Low 51-58.

Saturday: Showers end early, then becoming partly sunny. High 69-76. Offshore: Northeast winds 10-15 knots becoming southeast 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 miles early, improving in the afternoon.

Saturday night: Plenty of clouds. Low 52-59.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some late-day showers. High 75-82. Offshore: Southwest to south winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet. Visibility lowering to 1-3 miles in late-day showers.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 55-62.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms possible, especially late in the day. High 71-78. Offshore: South winds 10-15 knots, seas 3-5 feet. Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some late-day showers. Offshore: Southwest to south winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet. Visibility lowering to 1-3 miles in late-day showers.