Weekend Outlook

Tropical Update + Weekend Outlook: September 7-10, 2023

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While the heat will fade away over the next few days, the humidity won’t, and there’s some rain in our future as well. Meanwhile, we’ve got Hurricane Lee and a new Tropical Depression in the Atlantic.

Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees above normal for the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure will move offshore and sit there for the next several days while a frontal system very slowly moves eastward from the Great Lakes. In between the two, southerly winds will keep us warm and rather humid right through the weekend. We’ll have a little more cloud cover over the next few days, which will keep temperatures a little lower, but still likely into the 80s each afternoon for many locations. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible during the next few afternoons and evenings, but most of them should stay north and west of our area. Sunday and Monday is the more likely timeframe for showers and thunderstorms to develop around here, as the cold front will finally be approaching our neighborhood. Sunday is the home opener for the Patriots, so a lot of people are interested in that forecast. While there will likely be some showers and possibly thunderstorms around, whether they will impact the game (or the tailgating) is a little tough to pin down at this point, so if you’re heading to Foxborough, best to plan for it, but hope it doesn’t materialize. Temperatures will likely be in the upper 70s at kickoff, and it will be quite humid.

Many of the models have some showers around at the time of kickoff on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Increasing clouds, patchy fog developing, slight chance for a shower during the evening from southern New Hampshire into central Massachusetts. Low 66-73.

Friday: Partly sunny, a shower or two possible during the afternoon, mainly from southern New Hampshire into central Massachusetts. High 83-90.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 67-74.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, a few showers possible into the afternoon, mainly north and west of I-495. High 79-86.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a shower or two. Low 66-73.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with some showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly north and west of I-95. High 76-83.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with some showers around, mainly during the evening. Low 64-71.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely. High 75-82.

Hurricane Lee was joined by Tropical Depression 14 this afternoon. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Lee will be grabbing headlines for the next several days and rightfully so. As of 11am, Lee had maximum sustained winds near 105 mph, making it a Category Two hurricane. It was centered about 870 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. There is little wind shear over Lee, and extremely warm waters that extend deep into the ocean, which means conditions are ideal for Lee to continue to rapidly strengthen, and the forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Lee to become a Category 5 hurricane with winds near 160 mph by Friday evening. Lee should continue on a west-northwest track, passing north of the Caribbean this weekend. After that, things get a little trickier. Lee will likely start to see its intensity fluctuate over the weekend as eyewall-replacement cycles begin to develop. As for its track, a west-northwest track will continue into the weekend, but it will start to slow down as it reaches the western edge of a ridge of high pressure. At this point, a turn more toward the northwest or north will likely develop. When that turn takes place will be key to the forecast next week. There has already been considerable hype on the internet about Lee threatening the East Coast next week. We’ll just say this. It is FAR too early to speculate on where Lee will be heading 7-10 days from now. Is there a chance Lee could threaten the East Coast or Atlantic Canada? Yes, there is, but it’s not a likely scenario at this point. Even if it does threaten the East Coast, it is not likely to be the Category 5 monster it will develop into this weekend.

Ensemble forecasts for the track of Hurricane Lee over the next week. Image provided by Tomer Burg

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 14 has developed in the eastern Atlantic. As of 11am, TD 14 was centered about 160 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. The system is expected to steadily strengthen, likely become a Tropical Storm tonight or Friday, and possibly reaching hurricane strength over the weekend. The forecast calls for it to eventually turn more toward the northwest and north, staying over open water the entire time.

Forecast track for Tropical Depression 14. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

We’ll post a special blog about the tropics with a deeper dive into Lee’s future either Friday or Saturday.

Tropical Update + Weekend Outlook: September 1-4, 2023

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While the tropics remain active, our weather pattern definitely isn’t.

High pressure will remain in control through Saturday, providing plenty of sunshine, but keeping temperatures cool, though we’ll start to moderate over the weekend. A weak disturbance will bring in some clouds late Saturday and Saturday night, but high pressure builds back in for Sunday and Labor Day with more sunshine, warmer temperatures, but also more humidity.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 69-76.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 52-59.

Saturday: Sunshine and some late-day clouds. High 74-81.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Early clouds, then becoming sunny. High 79-86, a little cooler near the South Coast.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Labor Day: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 81-88, a little cooler near the South Coast.

There are still three named storms in the Atlantic. Image provided by Environment Canada.

Meanwhile, we have three named storms in the Atlantic, but only one may still be a threat to land.

Tropical Storm Idalia has moved off the North Carolina coast and is weakening. As of 2pm, it was centered about 120 miles southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, moving toward the east at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph. Idalia is starting to interact with a frontal system just to the north and will likely become an extratropical system later today or tonight. However, that’s likely not the end of Idalia’s story. It will continue eastward, and as it moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, it may start to regain tropical characteristics and possibly strengthen again. It could be a threat to Bermuda this weekend, but beyond that, its future is a little murky. The steering currents may collapse, and Idalia could stall out and/or drift around near Bermuda. Many models have it start moving toward the northeast and out to sea, but this is hardly a lock. It will continue to generate some rough surf for the East Coast into next week.

Idalia;s future beyond the weekend is uncertain. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

Farther to the east, Hurricane Franklin continues to pull away from Bermuda this afternoon. As of 11am, Franklin was centered about 265 miles northeast of Bermuda, moving toward the east-northeast at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were still near 100 mph. Franklin’s future is fairly straightforward. It will head northeastward over open water while slowly weakening and losing tropical characteristics over the next few days without impacting any land areas.

Forecast track for Hurricane Franklin. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

We also have Tropical Storm Jose in the Atlantic. As of 11am, Jose was centered about 770 miles east of Bermuda, moving toward the north at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Jose is expected to continue northward and weaken, and it will likely be absorbed by Franklin over the next day or two.

A system in the eastern Atlantic could become a tropical depression over the next few days, but isn’t a threat to land. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Way out in the Atlantic is an area of low pressure just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is slowly organizing, and conditions are favorable for more development. It could become a tropical depression by this weekend. Whether it develops or not, steering currents should send the system northwestward over open water through the weekend with no threat to any land areas.

Weekend Outlook: August 25-28, 2023

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More rain is on the way, but most of the weekend should end up rather nice.

Rainfall totals over the past few months have been 1.5 to 3 times the normal amount. We’ll add to that tonight and Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Low pressure is moving across the Great Lakes this afternoon, and it will slowly head eastward, sending clouds into the region today, with rain developing tonight. Friday is looking like a cloudy, breezy, cool, and wet day ahead of the system, with episodes of rain and showers, possibly a few embedded thunderstorms, especially near the South Coast. The system will try to send a warm front across the region, but it doesn’t look like it’ll make too much progress northward, so most of us will stay cool, except areas closer to the South Coast. Some of the rain may be heavy during the day on Friday. The rain will taper off Friday night, but it may not end until Saturday morning, especially across eastern Massachusetts. As a cold front pushes offshore, we’ll see some sunshine develop, but another upper-level disturbance will move across the region, generating some additional clouds, and possibly a few late-day showers. High pressure starts to build in on Sunday, but yet another upper-level disturbance will move through, likely producing more clouds. We’ll have some drier air in place, but there will still be a chance for a stray shower or two as the disturbance moves through. Monday looks like the pick of the weekend with partly to mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures.

The potential exists for some heavy rainfall across the region between tonight and Saturday morning. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers developing, especially after midnight. Low 58-65.

Friday: Breezy and cool with episodes of rain and showers, some possibly heavy, a few rumbles of thunder are also possible. High 67-74.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, rain and showers slowly taper off. Low 61-68.

Saturday: Some lingering showers in the morning, then becoming partly sunny, with a few more showers possible late in the day. High 74-81.

Saturday night: Any showers end during the evening, becoming partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or two. High 69-76.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 71-78.

Weekend Outlook: August 18-21, 2023

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Some more rain is on the way, but so is a fantastic weekend.

Some downpours are possible on Friday, but for the most part, the rain won’t be heavy across the region. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

A strong cold front is making its way across the Great Lakes this evening, and it will move into New England on Friday. Ahead of it, we’ll have plenty of clouds and some fog tonight, with a few showers around, becoming more numerous toward daybreak. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday morning into early afternoon, and a few of them could contain some downpours and gusty winds, but a widespread severe weather event is not likely. Once the front moves offshore, we’ll quickly clear out late in the day, with breezy northwest winds ushering much drier air into the region. High pressure then settles in for the weekend. Saturday will feature sunshine and some fair-weather clouds with low humidity and below normal temperatures. We should have more sunshine on Sunday, with temperatures starting to creep up a little. Humidity starts to increase on Monday, as well as the cloudcover as the next system starts to move toward the region.

Dewpoints will drop into the 50s, possibly upper 40s, early Saturday. Images provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers becoming more likely late at night. Areas of fog likely. Low 63-70.

Friday: Showers and some thunderstorms through early afternoon, clearing and breezy late in the day. High 76-83.

Friday night: Clear skies, diminishing winds. Low 54-61.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy, less humid. High 70-77.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 56-63.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 77-84.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 80-87.

Weekend Outlook: August 10-13, 2023

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An active weather pattern is expected for the next few days with several chances of rain.

A low pressure system will move across the region this evening, with some showers and thunderstorms likely. A few of the storms could produce some heavy rain, and there is a very low risk for some severe storms, mainly near the South Coast. We could see some brief spinups that may result in a weak tornado, similar to what we saw on Tuesday.

A few models show the potential for some heavy rain tonight, especially near the South Coast. Images provide by Pivotal Weather.

The rain winds down around midnight, then skies clear out as high pressure builds in, setting up a fantastic Friday with sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures, and low humidity. Clouds stream back in on Saturday ahead of the next system. This one will be moving along quickly, but it will likely bring in some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. We’ll clear out behind that system Sunday afternoon, but another one quickly follows for Monday. Most of Monday should remain dry, but showers and thunderstorms may develop late in the day. They’ll be more likely at night and into Tuesday, with some heavy rain possible once again.

Dewpoints will drop into the 50s for most of the region Friday afternoon. Images provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely this evening, skies start to clear out after midnight. Low 60-67.

Friday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, breezy. High 76-83.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 56-63.

Saturday: Morning sun, increasing afternoon clouds. High 79-86.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 64-71.

Sunday: Showers end early, clearing during the afternoon, breezy. High 79-86.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Monday: Sunny in the morning, clouds return in the afternoon with a chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day. High 77-84.

Weekend Outlook: August 4-7, 2023

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Humidity and rain are set to return to the region, but they won’t hang around that long.

Dewpoints will jump back into the middle to upper 60s on Friday. Images provided by Weathermodels.com

A warm front will move toward the region tonight, bringing the humid air back in. A few showers may accompany the front, but most of the region should remain dry. As low pressure moves into southeastern Canada, it will drag a cold front our way. A few days ago, it looked like another washout with heavy rain, especially late in the day, but now, it looks like some occasional showers, especially during the morning/early afternoon, then again at night as the front finally moves through. Some of the storms could still produce some heavy rainfall, but we’re not looking at another widespread heavy rain/flooding event. We’ll clear out for Saturday as high pressure builds in, and it will remain in control for Sunday. though we may see a little more in the way of cloudcover on Sunday. The next frontal system approaches on Monday with increasing clouds, though most of the rain should hold off until evening.

A few models still show the potential for some heavy rain tomorrow, but overall, it shouldn’t be that bad. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a shower or two. Low 60-67.

Friday: Plenty of clouds, some showers likely, especially during the morning and early afternoon High 72-79.

Friday night: Showers ending, skies start to clear out late at night. Low 59-66.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 76-83.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Monday: Partly sunny, clouds thicken up late in the day, showers may develop by evening. High 78-85.

Weekend Outlook: July 28-31, 2023

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We’ve got a little bit of everything this weekend – severe weather, heat and humidity, and a return to cooler and drier weather. Let’s get right to the details.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 8pm. Image provided by NOAA.

We’re starting things off on an active note, with a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for most of the region, except Cape Cod and the Islands, until 8pm. A vigorous upper-level disturbance is moving toward the region, and it has already triggered some showers and thunderstorms. They’ll become a bit more widespread as the afternoon wears on while moving generally eastward towards the area. Some of the stronger storms may produce hail, strong winds, heavy downpours that could lead to flash flooding, and possibly a tornado or two. With the potential for some heavy rain, a Flood Watch is also in effect for a good portion of the area. Activity should wind down and move offshore before midnight, leaving us with a warm and muggy night, with many spots not dropping below 70. Friday looks to be a very warm to hot day with moderate to high humidity for much of the region. High temperatures will likely approach or exceed 90 in many locations, except for the immediate South Coast. The combination of heat and humidity will send the heat index well into the 90s, so a Heat Advisory has also been issued. Friday night will be another warm and muggy night, leading into Saturday, which is the transition day.

The heat index will be in the middle to upper 90s in many areas Friday afternoon. Images provided by WeatherBell.

Saturday will start off with some sunshine, along with very warm and humid conditions, but a strong cold front will be moving toward the region. Depending on how quickly the clouds move in, some spots could reach 90 by midday, especially south of the Mass Pike. We’ll have some showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front by early afternoon, and again, the threat is there for some severe weather, as well as heavy rainfall, so Flood Watches will likely be issued once again. Showers and storms end with the passage of the cold front at night, then a much cooler and drier airmass settles in for Sunday and Monday. Dewpoints will drop into the 50s, and temperatures will only be in the upper 70s and lower 80s for highs both days. With night time lows dropping into the 50s in many spots Sunday night, you’ll be able to turn off the air conditioner and open the windows in your dwelling. This airmass may hang around for a good chunk of the week, with one model showing the potential for a few spots to drop into the upper 40s Wednesday morning. We’ll have a closer look at that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Lows could drop into the 50s in many locations Monday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe during the evening, ending by midnight, then skies clear out. Low 67-74.

Friday: Sunny, hot, and fairly humid. High 86-93.

Friday night: Clear skies, clouds start to filter in late at night. Low 68-75.

Saturday: Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing by early afternoon, some could be strong. High 84-91.

Saturday night: Showers and thunderstorms end during the evening, some clearing late at night. Low 60-67.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 75-82.

Weekend Outlook: July 21-24, 2023

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We’ve actually got some nice weather coming up for the weekend, unlike the last several weekends across the region.

Most of the region has received between 5 and 12 inches of rain over the past 30 days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A warm front will move toward the region tonight, spreading in some clouds, and possibly a shower or two. A cold front will move toward the region on Friday, with plenty of clouds, and some showers and thunderstorms, though it looks like they may hold off until late in the day, more likely during the evening and at night. The front pushes offshore early Saturday, with skies gradually clearing during the day. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, but as high pressure settles in, humidity levels will drop. The high then remains in control for Sunday and Monday with sunshine, warm temperatures, and moderate humidity levels.

Dewpoints in the 50s Sunday afternoon? A much-welcome change from the past couple of weeks. Images provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Partly cloudy this evening, then clouds move in overnight, just a slight chance for a shower. Low 61-68.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely thunderstorms developing late in the day. High 75-82, coolest along the coast.

Friday night: Showers and storms taper off in the evening, some late-night clearing. Low 61-68.

Saturday: Gradual clearing. High 78-85.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 60-67.

Sunday: Lots of sunshine. High 80-87.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88.

Weekend Outlook: July 14-17, 2023

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Another summer weekend, another upper-level low impacting our weather.

You’ve heard this from us plenty of times, but the pattern just hasn’t changed much. We’ve got a blocking pattern in place across Greenland, with a trough of low pressure, often times a closed low, setting up shop over the Midwest. These lows slowly drift eastward, and as they move out, we get a couple of nice days before the next trough/low drops into the Midwest. As disturbances rotate around those troughs, they help to trigger showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. At least we’re on the warm side of the troughs, with southwest flow aloft, meaning it’s warm and humid most of the time. Consider yourselves lucky, in places on the other side of the trough, like the Northern and Central Plains, not only have the last few weeks been quite wet, temperatures have been well below normal.

Temperatures have been well below normal across the nation’s midsection so far in July. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

In terms of what we can expect around here, well, expect some showers and thunderstorms to develop each day, mainly during the afternoon hours, and they should diminish after sunset. These storms will be most widespread on Friday and again on Sunday as disturbances rotate through the region. Any storms that develop may produce heavy rainfall, which could trigger flooding, especially with the ground quite wet across much of the region. Temperatures will be mainly in the upper 70s and 80s during the day, but it will remain humid.

Some locally heavy rainfall is possible over the next few days. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, some showers and thunderstorms possible during the evening. Low 67-74.

Friday: Plenty of clouds, showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly from late morning into the afternoon. Some of the storms may produce heavy rain and gusty winds. High 78-85.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers taper off in the evening. Low 65-72.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a few showers and storms possible in the afternoon. High 80-87.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 67-74.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, showers and thunderstorms likely, some may produce heavy rain. High 76-83.

Sunday night: Plenty of clouds, showers end in the evening. Low 66-73.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82-89.

Weekend Outlook: July 7-10, 2023

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The first half of the weekend looks rather nice, but the second half not so much. Either way, the humidity is going anywhere anytime soon.

Dewpoints will be near or above 70 for the next several days. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Another upper-level low pressure system will settle into the Great Lakes over the next few days, keeping us on the warm and humid side. We’ll stay dry for the most part on Friday and Saturday, aside from a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, mainly across the interior. Temperatures may reach 90 in many areas again on Friday, but as winds become more southerly on Saturday temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but still well into the 80s in many areas, A frontal system will slowly move toward the region this weekend, and by Sunday it should be close enough to spread more clouds in. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front in the Mid-Atlantic states and ride it northward, bringing us more widespread showers and thunderstorms later Sunday and again on Monday, some of which could be locally heavy, again they’ll be most numerous across the interior.

Rainfall has been above normal across the region since early June. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy with areas fog developing. Low 65-72.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 83-90, a little cooler at the coast.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog. Low 65-72.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, again mostly well north and west of Boston. High 80-87, a little cooler at the coast.

Saturday night: Plenty of clouds, fog possible again. Low 64-71.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially across the interior. High 77-84.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 64-71.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83.