Author: wxmanscottk

Weekly Outlook: August 28-September 4, 2017

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“Summer’s going fast, nights growing colder”

 

Neil Peart wrote that line (and the rest of the song) 30 years ago, but it’s appropriate right now, as we’re coming up on Labor Day weekend, the “traditional” end of summer. Of course, meteorological summer ends on Thursday, so, we really are getting closer to fall. Just for completeness, the autumnal equinox occurs at 4:02pm on September 22. Of course, we’ve had plenty of hot weather in September before, so don’t start putting away the shorts just yet.

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Rainfall totals across southeastern Texas through Sunday afternoon. Image provided by the National Weather Service Office in Houston.

 

Before we get to the forecast around here, we’d like to discuss Harvey a little. In our post a few days ago, we mentioned the possibility that some locations could see 30-40 inches of rain over the span of a week as Harvey stalled across the region. Well, it looks like we underestimated that. Much of the area, especially right around Houston, has already seen 15-30 inches of rain, leading to catastrophic flooding across the region. Some of the pictures of the flooding have been just incredible. Unfortunately, with Harvey expected to move very little over the next few days, another 15-30 inches may fall across the region.

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Rainfall forecast for the next 7 days across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

As for around here, the week will start off dry and cool, which is how the last week ended. High pressure remains in control, which will give us some sunshine for one more day. High clouds will start to stream in on Tuesday ahead of a tropical system off the East Coast (more on that in a minute). That system will pass south and east of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as it becomes a post-tropical system. It will likely pass close enough to spread some gusty winds and maybe some showers into Cape Cod and possible southeastern Massachusetts. A cold front then swings through the region on Thursday, bringing in more showers and maybe some thunderstorms. High pressure then returns will dry and cool conditions for Friday and Saturday. Clouds start to move back in on Sunday, and unfortunately, Labor Day isn’t looking that great right now, as a storm system moving in from the Great Lakes may bring us more showers. However, it’s a week away and things can change, so don’t go cancelling any plans just yet.

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We’ll start the week off with a cool Monday morning. These readings are 5-10 degrees below normal. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

As we mentioned a moment ago, we may have a tropical system to deal with off the East Coast. As early early Monday morning, Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 was centered about 165 miles south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina. The system doesn’t have a well-defined circulation yet, which is why it’s only a “potential” tropical cyclone. If it does get its act together, it will be named Irma. The current forecast is for that to happen while the storm starts moving northeastward. Since it will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the Carolinas, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the South Santee River in South Carolina northward to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Once it passes the Outer Banks of North Carolina, it will likely accelerate east-northeastward out into the open Atlantic while slowly strengthening, but also losing its tropical characteristics.

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Computer model forecasts for the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone 10. Image provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

 

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 70-77.

Monday night: Some high clouds may start to spread across the region. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds to start, but clouds start to thicken up during the afternoon. High 66-73.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, becoming breezy across Cape Cod. Some showers are possible, mainly across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Low 53-60.

Wednesday: Some showers possible in the morning across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 66-73.

Thursday: A sunny start, then clouding back up with showers and maybe some thunderstorms late in the day. High 77-84.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 65-72.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 69-76.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 76-83.

Labor Day: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of showers. High 78-85.

Longer range: Aside from a system bringing in some showers towards midweek, much of next week looks dry and cool.

Houston Might Have a Problem Named Harvey

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A week ago, Tropical Storm Harvey produced wind gusts as high as 44 mph in the Windward Islands. It moved into the eastern Caribbean and fell apart a few days later, degenerating into a tropical wave. Four days after that,  Harvey has regenerated into a tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche. Now, it’s setting it sights on Texas.

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Sorry, wrong Harvey. This Harvey isn’t a problem at all. Image provided by WCVB.

As of early Thursday morning, Tropical Storm Harvey was centered about 410 miles southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph. Harvey was moving toward the northwest at 7 mph. A hurricane watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from Port Mansfield, to San Luis Pass. Tropical Storm Watches have also been issued from Port Mansfield southward to Boca de Catan, Mexico, and from San Luis Pass northward to High Island, Texas. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island.

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Harvey certainly looks to be heading towards the Texas coastline. Once it gets there, where it goes is a question that really can’t be answered yet. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Current indications are that Harvey should continue to head northwestward while strengthening over the next day or two. Harvey should be approaching the Lower or Middle Texas coast on Friday. With warm water and low wind shear, there is a chance that Harvey could rapidly intensify on Thursday, and should become a hurricane before landfall, possibly a strong hurricane.

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This Harvey is a problem for Gotham City, not Houston. Image provided by DC Comics Database.

Once Harvey makes landfall, it will start to slow down and its movement could become erratic as there will be little in the way of upper-level wind flow to steer the storm. Many models are now showing a turn towards the west or southwest for a day or two, others show the storm nearly stationary once inland, and still others have the storm drift off towards the east or northeast after landfall. There’s also the chance that Harvey stalls before moving inland. The exact track that Harvey takes will have a huge impact on the region for obvious reasons.

While wind and storm surge are obviously threats to Texas, especially along the coast near where Harvey makes landfall, by far, the bigger threat at this point is flooding from heavy rainfall. The slow movement once inland means that heavy rain will continue across portions of the region for several days, leading to widespread, severe flooding, especially across parts of south and southeast Texas.

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GFS model forecast for rainfall across Texas for the 7 days ending Wednesday August 30. That’s a LOT of water. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Some models, such as the one above, are showing the possibility for 10-20 or more inches of rain across parts of the area over the next week. Some models are showing extreme totals of 30-40 or more inches during the same time frame. While these numbers seem unbelievable, they wouldn’t be unprecedented. Hurricanes that move out of the Gulf of Mexico are usually loaded with tropical moisture and if they are moving slow enough, can produce several months worth of rainfall in a matter of days. In 1978, Tropical Storm Amelia dropped 48 inches of rain on Medina, Texas. This is the most rainfall recorded from a single storm anywhere in the United States. Just one year later, Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. In Alvin, Texas, just west of Houston, a total of 42 inches of rain was recorded in just 24 hours. This set a new record for 24-hour rainfall in the contiguous United States. More recently, in 2001, Tropical Storm Allison produced 20-40 inches of rain on portions of southeastern Texas and Louisiana.

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NAM model forecast for rainfall across Florida through Sunday morning. Some flooding seems like a possibility south of I-4. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure is drifting across Florida this morning. This system will produce heavy rain across portions of the Sunshine State over the next few days, which could lead to some localized flooding. Once it drifts back into the Atlantic, it will need to be watched for signs of development. While the most likely track for the system, if it develops at all, is to head northeastward out into the open Atlantic, there are some models that show the potential for the system to impact portions of the East Coast early this weekend or next week, as we mentioned at the end of our Weekly Outlook on Sunday. We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system, just in case it does become a threat.

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An out-to-sea track still looks most likely, but the potential for trouble along the East Coast still exists. Image provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Weekly Outlook: August 21-27, 2016

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As we start a new week all eyes will literally be looking at the sky. As you may have heard, there’s an eclipse today. The weather will cooperate, as high pressure provides us with sunshine, so viewing it shouldn’t be a problem. You’ve probably also heard plenty of people warning you not to look directly at the sun during the eclipse. Since you’ve heard it enough already, we won’t say it. Besides, if you want to look at the sun, we won’t stop you. Eyesight is overrated anyways. Plenty of people live without it. If that’s what you want, who are we to stop you? You’ll still be alive and free to go golfing in the middle of the thunderstorms we’re expecting on Tuesday. Don’t worry, they’ll likely be coming at night, so even if you were golfing, you wouldn’t be able to find the ball if you had eyesight.

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Cloud cover forecast from the HRRR model for 2pm Monday. Just a few clouds around, which shouldn’t impact eclipse viewing much. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Now that we’ve given you the teaser and the sarcasm, let’s get to the details. We start the week off with high pressure, giving us a fantastic Monday. A cold front approaches on Tuesday, producing showers and thunderstorms, mainly at night. A few of these storms could be quite strong, but with the activity mostly expected at night, that should limit the potential for severe weather. Of course, that doesn’t mean you should let your guard down. These storms still could produce heavy downpours, but severe weather is still possible at night. In fact, Tuesday marks the one year anniversary of the tornado that impacted Concord, MA at 3:20 in the morning.

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A rare overnight tornado impacted Concord, MA one year ago tomorrow. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Taunton, MA.

The showers and thunderstorms will taper off and end early Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region, then things get quiet again. We’ll dry out Wednesday afternoon but it will remain warm. We’ll cool off a little more on Thursday as an upper-level trough of low pressure settles into the Northeast while high pressure does at the surface, which will result in some cool days for Friday and the weekend.

Monday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, dimmed for a while by a passing moon in the afternoon. High 82-89.

Monday night: High clouds overspread the region. Low 64-71.

Tuesday: Clouds thicken up, with some showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 85-92.

Tuesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which could contain heavy downpours and gusty winds. Low 68-75.

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms end in the morning, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 78-85.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 74-81.

Friday: A sunny start, then clouds start to pop up with a slight chance for a spot shower in the afternoon. High 71-78.

Saturday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. High 70-77.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77.

Finally, we get to a topic that doesn’t impact this week’s forecast, but could have an impact early next week. For several days now, the Canadian model has been extremely insistent on a tropical disturbance developing near the Bahamas and eventually moving northward, up the East Coast early next week. There have been a few reasons to ignore this for the past few days:

  1. This was the only model showing this feature.
  2. The Canadian model always seems to take every little ripple in the tropics and blow it up into a hurricane.

So, why are we mentioning it now? There are a few reasons.

  1. Other models are starting to show the potential for something to develop near the Bahamas or Florida late this week or early next week.
  2. The Canadian model has been slightly better than many of the other models in regards to the tropics so far this season.
  3. It’s had this feature with very little variation for at least 6 consecutive model runs.

That last point is the main reason why we at least feel the need to mention it. This model has not really wavered much at all, and consistency is one of the things we look for in a model before we start to trust its solution. Add in the fact that other models are starting to come around, and well, it’s something we need to keep an eye on. This does not mean that a massive hurricane is going to wipe out the East Coast just before Labor Day. If anything does materialize, we’ll obviously keep you informed, but for now, it’s just something to keep in the back of your mind. (Of course, now that we’ve mentioned it, the next run of the Canadian model will likely change its tune completely)

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Forecast for Atlantic Disturbance 92L based on the Canadian GEM model initialized Sunday evening. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Weekly Outlook: August 14-20, 2017

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We’ve actually got a fairly straightforward forecast for much of this week, so we’ll get right to it.

The week starts off with high pressure bringing us sunshine and seasonable temperatures for Monday. A cold front moves through on Tuesday, with some showers and thunderstorms expected. A few of them could be on the strong side, but the bulk of the activity will remain to the north and west of most of the people reading this. Drier weather returns behind the front on Wednesday. Clouds return on Thursday ahead of another system. This is where we get to our question mark of the week – when will it rain?

Some models have the rain come in for Thursday night and Friday, others for Friday into Friday night. The timing of the rain and the cold front will also have implications on the temperatures, especially on Friday. These questions really can’t be answered yet. Things start to improve on Saturday, though another shower can’t be ruled out. High pressure then returns for Sunday.

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Some pretty big waves are possible along south-facing beaches by Wednesday as Tropical Storm Gert passes well offshore. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Turning our attention to the tropics, we have Tropical Storm Gert, which is in between the East Coast and Bermuda. Unless you are a boater or are planning a cruise to Bermuda this week, you have nothing to worry about. Gert will strengthen some more, possibly even becoming a hurricane in a day or two. It will head northward, then make a sharp right turn and head out into the open Atlantic without threatening any land areas.

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Model forecast for the track of Tropical Storm Gert. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Perhaps you’ve heard rumblings of another system in the Atlantic? Yes, there is a wave that came off of Africa recently, and will be monitored as it makes it’s journey westward. Yes, it’s true that some of the models show it strengthening and possibly even threatening the East Coast. Here’s the thing, and we have mentioned this before. The models suck at predicting these things until they actually form. Even then, they’re not that much better. For example, the GFS model, which is the one that most people look at because it goes out 16 days had the storm that eventually became Gert. As we mentioned earlier, Gert is about halfway between the East Coast and Bermuda, and has a central pressure of 1009mb. If you go back and look at the GFS forecast from 11 days ago, it had Gert this evening centered about 50 miles east of Vero Beach, FL as a Category 5 hurricane with a central pressure of 926 mb. If this were the winter, that’d be the equivalent of a forecast of 4 feet of snow and you actually get sunshine. (We don’t want to hear any snide remarks – our forecasts has never been that bad) We’ll step off of our soapbox now, but please keep in mind, unless there’s actually a storm out there, ignore what the computers and especially the Facebook Forecasters have to say.

Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 79-86.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 79-86.

Tuesday night: Clearing skies. Low 60-67.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 80-87.

Thursday: Clouds slowly thicken up throughout the day. High 77-84.

Friday: Cloudy with showers likely. High 72-79.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, another shower or two possible. High 76-83.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 74-81.

Weekly Outlook: August 7-13, 2017

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We lost a true legend of the meteorological community a few days ago. RIP Dick Albert. Image provided by WCVB.com

As we get into the middle of August, we are at the traditional end of the so-called “Dog Days of Summer“. Most of this week is not going to live up to that name though. Instead, we’re going to be stuck with “MOTS” as the late, great Dick Albert used to say. That stands for “More Of The Same”. In other words, not much heat, but more rain.

The week starts off with low pressure passing south of New England. That means were in for some rain and cool conditions later Monday into Tuesday. In some places, it might be more than “some” rain, and could be “a lot” of rain. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly Friday, meaning we get to use another one of Dickie’s favorite expressions to describe those days – “F and D”, which means “Fine and Dandy.” Next weekend could be unsettled, as we’ll have a frontal system in the neighborhood, so the possibility for showers and thunderstorms will increase.

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Rainfall forecast through Tuesday evening based on the NAM model. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy with rain developing during the afternoon. High 72-79.

Monday night: Periods of rain and showers, possibly heavy at times, especially along the South Coast. A rumble of thunder is also possible. Breezy at times, mainly south of Boston. Low 58-65.

Tuesday: Showers taper off and end in the morning. Some sunny breaks may develop late in the day.  High 70-77.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 55-62.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 77-84.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 76-83.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 75-82.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 74-81.

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Computer model forecasts for the track of Tropical Storm Franklin. Image provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

The tropical Atlantic is finally waking up from its long slumber. Tropical Storm Franklin formed late Sunday evening in the western Caribbean. As of early Monday morning, it was centered just off the coastline of Nicaragua and Honduras. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph. The current forecast calls for the storm to move into the Yucatan Peninsula Monday evening, then move back into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. From there, it will likely head westward, towards the eastern coast of Mexico. Landfall is likely towards the middle to latter half of the week. The majority of the forecast models are showing that Franklin should make its second landfall as a strong tropical storm. We’re not so sure about that. For one, the models that predict intensity of tropical systems are, shall we say, not that good. OK, they suck. Maybe not as much as the New York Jets or the UMass Hockey team, but they’re not that good. Also, the water in the western Gulf of Mexico is some of the warmest water you’ll find in the Western Hemisphere right now. That could provide plenty of fuel to strengthen a system. There are plenty of other factors involved, starting with the potential for the system to not even survive its trip across the Yucatan. Having said that, we wouldn’t be surprised at all if Franklin approached the coast of Mexico as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane later this week.

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Plenty of bathwater in the western Gulf of Mexico can help fuel a strengthening tropical system. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Weekly Outlook: July 31 – August 6, 2017

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Let’s turn the clock back about 6 months, to February 9, 2017. Do you remember that day? Patrice Bergeron had 4 points and the Bruins beat San Jose 6-3 in Bruce Cassidy’s first game as the new Bruins head coach. The Celtics beat the Portland Trailblazers 120-111, led by Isaiah Thomas scoring 34 points. Of course, we were also just four days removed from the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. Do you remember anything else about that day? No? Nothing? Let us refresh your memory:

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Snowfall totals from February 9,2017. Image provided by the National Weather Service Office in Taunton, MA

 

Yeah, you remember now, don’t you? You were trying to block it out and we just brought it back. It was in the 20s and lower 30s for temperatures, and snowed heavily for much of the day. As you can see from the map above, many of us were shoveling somewhere in the vicinity of a foot of snow that day. So, why are we bringing this up now? We’re betting that on that day, you were probably thinking about a nice week of vacation in the middle of the summer, with sunshine, warm temperatures, and no hint of any snow. Does this sound familiar? Well, that week you were dreaming of is here.

High pressure will be in control for much of the week. For the first half of the week, that means sunshine, warm temperatures, and low humidity. Temperatures and humidity levels will start to creep up as we head towards midweek, with the possibility of some afternoon showers and thunderstorms as we get later in the week. A cold front may bring in more showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, then high pressure returns for Sunday.

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Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s on the last day of July? We’ll take that without question. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Wall-to-wall sunshine with just a few afternoon clouds. High 81-88, a little cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Mostly clear. Low 59-66.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 83-90. a little cooler right along the coast.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, more humid, a shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. High 83-90.

Thursday: Partly sunny, afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible. High 83-90.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Finally, we’ll mention a couple of things about the tropics. There are still a few storms in the Pacific, and one area we’re watching in the Gulf of Mexico. First, we’ll talk about the Gulf, since it’s closer. There’s a cluster of thunderstorms off the west coast of Florida. It’s got a small window of opportunity to get its act together before moving into Florida on Tuesday. Once it moves back into the Atlantic, it could strengthen on its way out to sea. It’ll bring some heavy rain to Florida and the Bahamas over the next few days, but otherwise, it doesn’t look like a big deal.

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Computer model forecasts for the track of a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

In the Pacific,  things aren’t nearly as active as they were earlier in the week. We still have Tropical Storm Irwin in the Eastern Pacific, but probably not for too much longer. In the Western Pacific, we have Super Typhoon Noru. Noru is impacting a few small islands well south of Japan, and has likely peaked in intensity with maximum sustained winds near 150 mph early Monday morning. There’s still plenty of uncertainty in regards to Noru’s future track, and it could threaten southern Japan later this week. For now, just take a look at this beautiful monster:

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Visible satellite loop of Super Typhoon Noru. She’s a beauty, eh? Loop provided by NOAA.

The Atlantic Remains Quiet While the Pacific is Quite Active

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The tropics remain quiet in the Atlantic right now, but it’s a different story in the Pacific, where there are currently six active systems, three in the East, and three in the West. This doesn’t even count the remains of a system crossing Hawaii today and another area being watched for development in the Western Pacific.

Starting with the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary is the strongest on the storms as well as the closest to land. At midday Monday, Hillary was centered about 340 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving towards the west-northwest at 8pm. This track is expected to continue for the next few days, bringing the system away from Mexico. Hilary has maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, but it is in an environment favorable for strengthening, and is expected to become a major hurricane over the next 24-36 hours. After that, a gradual weakening trend is expected.

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Forecast track for Hurricane Hilary. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

 

A little farther to the west is Tropical Storm Irwin. Irwin was centered about 750 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at midday Monday, drifting westward at 3 mph. Irwin has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Irwin should become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday. The forecast track for Irwin is highly uncertain at the moment. Several of the computer models show an erratic motion for the storm, as it may interact with Hurricane Hilary. Whether or not it actually does interact with Hilary will have a large effect on its eventual track. Whether it does interact with Hilary or not, Irwin will remain over open water for the next several days, and is not a threat to any land areas.

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Model forecasts for the track of Tropical Storm Irwin. There is plenty of disagreement among the models on its eventual track. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

 

Heading westward again, we come to Tropical Storm Greg. Greg’s top winds peaked at 60 mph on Friday, and it has been slowly weakening over the weekend. At midday Monday, Greg had top winds near 45 mph, and additional weakening is expected over the next few days. Greg was centered a little more than 1500 miles east of Hawaii, and was moving towards the west at 12 mph. Greg should dissipate well east of Hawaii later this week.

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Tropical Storm Greg continues to gradually weaken over open waters. Loop provided by NOAA.

 

In the Central Pacific, there are no active storms at the moment. However, what’s left of Hurricane Fernanda is moving across Hawaii today, producing some gusty winds along with locally heavy showers and thunderstorms on Oahu and Kauai. At one point last week, Fernanda was a Category 4 hurricane with top winds of 145 mph over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific.

In the Western Pacific, we also have three active systems, and another area being watched for development.

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Satellite photo showing three active systems and another potential tropical system in the Western Pacific. Image provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

 

The strongest of the storms is Typhoon Noru (07W). Noru has been meandering around in the waters well southeast of Japan for several days, and this erratic motion should continue for another day or so before a general westward motion takes over. Noru currently has maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, and some further strengthening is possible over the next 36 hours. Noru will impact the Bonin Islands over the next few days with heavy rain and gusty winds. The GFS model shows the possibility that by next weekend, Noru could become a powerful typhoon in the waters south of Japan

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Forecast track for Typhoon Noru. Image provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

 

To the east of Noru is Tropical Storm Kulap (09W). Kulap is gradually weakening, and this should continue over the next few days. Kulap currently has top winds near 50 mph, but should weaken to a tropical depression by Tuesday. Kulap should continue moving off to the east, heading into the open waters of the Western Pacific, without impacting any additional land areas.

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Forecast track for Tropical Storm Kulap. Image provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

 

The storm that is the biggest threat to populated areas at the moment is Tropical Storm Sonca (08W). Sonca is currently centered about 160 miles east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam, driftng towards the southwest at 4 mph. A turn more toward the west is expected over the next 24 hours, with landfall in Vietnam expected by early Tuesday. Sonca has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. The biggest threat from Sonca is flooding from heavy rains. Sonca could produce rainfall totals of 10-20 inches or more in parts of Vietnam and Laos.

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Forecast track for Tropical Storm Sonca. Image provided by the Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.

 

In addition to all the active systems, an area of disturbed weather about 375 miles northwest of Palau in the Western Pacific Ocean is being monitored for development. Conditions should be favorable for the system to develop over the next few days, and it could become a tropical depression later this week as it moves northward. Current computer model forecasts show the possibility of additional strengthening later this week, with the potential for a threat to the Philippines or Taiwan towards the end of the week.

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GFS Ensemble forecast for the track and strength of a tropical disturbance in the Western Pacific Ocean. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

 

Computer model forecasts show that the active pattern will likely continue, especially in the Western Pacific, for the next few weeks at a minimum, with several more tropical cyclones possible. This is not a surprise, as the Western Pacific usually is the most active tropical cyclone basin in the world. So far in 2017, that hasn’t been the case. Although the number of storms has been close to normal in the Western Pacific (and the Atlantic), many have been weak and short-lived. Using a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which takes into account how strong a storm is, and how long it lasts, we see that so far this year, activity is below normal across the Western Pacific (and the Atlantic), and above normal in the Eastern Pacific.

Weekly Outlook: July 24-30, 2017

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Hope you enjoyed the summer weather we had last week, because we’ve got some suck-tastic (Note: that’s a technical term) conditions on the way today. Don’t worry, things will improve during the week.

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There could be quite a bit of rain around here today into Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A frontal system will remain south of us today into Tuesday, with a wave of low pressure riding along it. That will bring us in some rain today, and it might be fairly heavy in spots, especially along the South Coast. Some localized flash flooding is possible.

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Temperatures could be 10-15 (or more) degrees below normal around here today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

But wait, the rain isn’t the only thing to make Monday suck-tastic! We’ve got cool temperatures too! How cool? We’re glad you asked, because we have the answer. How does 60s sound for highs? Some models are hinting that temperatures could stay in the 50s during the afternoon. That’s awfully chilly for mid-July, even in New England. In fact, we could set some record low max temperatures. We’re all going to have a case of the Mondays.

But wait, there’s more! We’ve also got coastal flooding! That’s right, thanks to a full moon giving us the highest tides of the month, and a persistent onshore wind, some coastal flooding is possible around high tide, especially along east-facing shorelines.

By Tuesday, the low pressure area will start to slowly pull away, though we could see a few leftover showers. The clouds may hang tough for a good chunk of the day, and temperatures may also stay cool, so it won’t be the best of days, but at least it won’t be as bad as today.

Things get much better on Wednesday when high pressure builds in, bringing us sunshine, milder temperatures, and low humidity. Don’t get used to it. The humidity returns on Thursday along with the chance for some showers and thunderstorms ahead of another cold front. That front will move through early Friday, and stall out. We’ll have to see exactly where it stalls, as a wave of low pressure is going to ride along that front on Friday. If it stalls out south of New England, as at least one model shows, then skies could clear out and the rain stays off to our south. If the front stalls out right across the area, as another model shows, then we could be looking at another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms for Friday, with unsettled conditions lingering into Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday with drier and cooler conditions.

The GFS model keeps low pressure well south of New England Friday into Saturday, with some fair weather across the area. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
The ECMWF model brings low pressure right across New England Friday into Saturday, with another round of suck-tastic weather across the area. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Cloudy, breezy, and cool with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. High 60-67.

Monday night: Cloudy with some additional showers or drizzle around. Low 54-61.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few more showers. High 64-71.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 75-82.

Thursday: Partly sunny, becoming humid, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 78-85.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. High 73-80.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few additional showers. High 75-82.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny and drier. High 76-83.

Weekly Outlook: July 17-23, 2017

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Here we are in the middle of summer, and we’re still waiting to have a full week of actual “summer” weather. Well, guess what? That wait may finally be over! That’s right, some actual bona-fide “summer weather” looks like it’ll be here for the next 7 days.

What’s actually going on for most of the week is fairly simple to explain. High pressure will remain in place off the East Coast for the next several days. That means we’ll have warm and increasingly humid conditions right through Wednesday. When it’s warm and humid, we also have the daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. We’re not expecting any widespread severe weather, but any storms that do form could produce some gusty winds and heavy downpours. Thunderstorms may be a bit more widespread as we head into Thursday, especially Thursday evening and night, as a cold front moves towards the region. Ahead of the front, temperatures should reach the 90s across much of the region, making for an oppressive day. Of course, some of you enjoy that, so Thursday might be considered the “best” day of the week by those standards. The front moves through Thursday night, and drier and slightly cooler conditions return for Friday and Saturday. Clouds and maybe more showers and thunderstorms could return on Sunday ahead of another front.

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Thursday is looking like a very toasty afternoon across the area. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly sunny skies, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 81-88.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 78-85.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Sunshine gives way to increasing clouds with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. High 84-91.

Thursday: Partly sunny, hot, and humid, with a chance for late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 88-95.

Friday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, less humid. High 82-89.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 78-85.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 80-87.

Weekly Outlook: July 10-16, 2017

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We’re approaching the mid-point of meteorological summer, so you’d think that we should finally have a week of typical “summer weather”, right? C’mon, you should know better. This is New England, the only thing typical about the weather here is that is typically changes all the time. This week won’t be an exception.

The week will start off with high pressure moving off the East Coast, so we’ll have warm and increasingly humid air in place. So far, so good, right? A cold front approaches on Tuesday, likely triggering some showers and thunderstorms. A few strong storms are possible, but the bulk of the severe weather should remain well to our north and west. That front looks like it’s going to stall out near the South Coast on Wednesday. This may keep clouds and some showers around, especially the closer you get to the South Coast. A couple of weak systems will move through for Thursday and Friday, with more rain and unseasonably cool temperatures, though it could remain warm south of the Mass Pike – south of the front. Things should improve next weekend, both in the skycover and temperature departments.

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A frontal system could set up quite a different in temperature across the region Thursday afternoon. At least one model shows afternoon temperatures dropping into the 50s across parts of Maine and New Hampshire, while the South Coast could be pushing 90. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 80-87.

Monday night: Partly cloudy, showers possible late at night. Low 63-70.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, additional showers and thunderstorms are likely. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms taper off in the evening. Low 65-72.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 78-85.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with more showers and thunderstorms possible. High 70-78 north of the Mass Pike, 78-85 south of the Mass Pike. Temperatures could drop sharply in the afternoon.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and showers. High 63-70 north of the Mass Pike, 70-77 south of the Mass Pike.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 75-82.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 80-87.

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There is a chance that another system could develop in the Atlantic later this week. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Finally, we’ll address the tropics again. Right now, the Atlantic is relatively quiet. A weak tropical wave is passing south of the Cape Verde Islands, producing some showers and thunderstorms. As we normally do at this time of year, we’ll keep an eye on it as it makes it’s way across the Atlantic Ocean this week. Conditions might be favorable for some development, but if any occurs, it likely won’t happen for several more days. That being said, some of the computer models have been suggesting that this system will develop, which has sent some of the weather weenies on the internet into a frenzy. If we had a dollar for every time the models tried to develop a tropical system and it never happened, we’d be filthy rich right now. These models are notoriously bad and predicting the development of these systems. We’re talking UMass-Amherst hockey level of ineptitude. We’re not going to state right now that this system won’t develop. These models are right on occasion, and there is always a chance. But right now, that chance is pretty low. If it does develop, we’ll let you know if there’s anything to worry about.