Author: wxmanscottk

Snowy Saturday Morning

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Yes, snow is still on the way, and this is an update to our forecast, but it really hasn’t changed that much.

Low pressure will move out of the Ohio Valley today, passing south of New England early on Saturday. We’ll have some cold air in place, so many of us will have some snow Saturday morning, but don’t worry, it won’t be a lot, and it won’t hang around for too long.

The precipitation will move in around midnight, and it will likely start as rain for most of us, with temperatures still in the upper 30s to lower 40s. However, it will quickly change over to snow as temperatures drop into the middle 30s. It looks like there may be a burst of moderate to heavy snow overnight, especially along and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike. A change back to rain is expected towards daybreak, except in the hills from northern Rhode Island into Worcester County and the Monadnocks in southwestern New Hampshire.

The GFS model shows the progression of snow and rain across the region. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

As we mentioned yesterday, it’s awfully tough to get accumulating snow in mid-April for a variety of reasons, but there are some things that will help this time. First of all, most of the snow will fall at night. Once the sun comes up, the sun angle is similar to late August, so once we get past about 7-8am, even if there are still flakes falling, there won’t be any more accumulation. Second of all, temperatures will be close to freezing. Third, the snow may come down at a decent clip, which will help bring down a little bit of colder air from aloft. Working against accumulating snow is the fact that the ground is warm. Any accumulations will be mainly confined to grassy surfaces, as the pavement is considerably warmer. There may be a little slush on paved surfaces, but not much. Also, we’re not going to have a large window of time for accumulating snow. As we said, the precipitation will start as rain around midnight before flipping to snow. Once it does start snowing, it will take a little time to start accumulating, due to the wet/warm ground. That will take until 1-2am, and by 7am, the daylight will help put an end to accumulations. So, we’ve really only got about 5-6 hours of accumulating snow out of this system.

Temperatures likely won’t drop below freezing across most of the region tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.

So, how much do we expect now? Our thinking really hasn’t changed too much from yesterday. The jackpot is still going to be in the Worcester Hills and the Monadnocks, where 3-5″ is expected, possibly some heavier amounts. For the rest of us, a general 1-3″ from southern New Hampshire into the Merrimack Valley and Metro West, as well as the Seacoast of New Hampshire. The immediate Boston area will probably see around 1 inch. The biggest question mark for us is the area south of the Mass Pike into northern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island, and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. There will be some heavier precipitation here, but temperatures may also be a bit milder. Right now, we’re thinking 1-2″ for places like Woonsocket, Brockton, and Taunton, but it could end up a bit more if there is that heavier burst of snowfall. It also could end up less if temperatures stay in the upper 30s instead of dropping into the middle 30s.

The GFS model remains closest to our thinking for snowfall amounts. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The rest of Saturday will feature rain showers and temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s, which will help melt away some of the snow from the morning. Skies will clear out at night, but clouds will come back in Sunday afternoon ahead of the next storm system. The good news is that Sunday will see temperatures well into the 50s and lower 60s, so that should take care of the rest of the snow. That next system? It’ll stay well offshore, but may produce a few rain showers on Monday. Is this the last time we’ll see snow until the fall/winter? Possibly. History says it can snow as late as mid-May here, so we can’t completely rule it out. In yesterday’s blog, we mentioned the possibility of flakes around April 28-29, based on the ECMWF Ensemble and its 51 members. Well, the newest run of that model no longer has that threat, but a significant portion of the ensemble members have at least a trace of snow for parts of the area around May 2, with a little bit of wet snow mixed in during a rainstorm. So, there’s a good chance tonight is our last accumulating snow for several months, but it might not be the last time we see some snowflakes. That same model also shows high temperatures near or above 70 on a regular basis starting around the middle of May.

Snow? Really?

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After a winter where we didn’t really have much snow, it does look like there is some more coming, for at least part of the region.

Snowfall was well below normal across most of the region this winter. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Some of you woke up to the ground being white this morning after a disturbance moved through with some snow and rain showers. Well, a similar occurrence is possible Saturday morning. A weak storm system will pass south of the region Friday night and Saturday. We’ll have some cold air (relative to mid-April) in place, with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 30s, especially north and west of Boston. As the system moves in, precipitation will develop late Friday night, and it will likely be in the form of snow north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Light snow will fall through the early morning hours changing to rain across most of eastern Massachusetts, but possibly staying all snow from the Worcester Hills into the Monadnocks and maybe even southern New Hampshire before it ends during the afternoon.

A weak storm will bring in some light snow and rain Friday night and Saturday. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

It’s awfully tough to get accumulating snow in mid-April for a variety of reasons, but there are some things that will help this time. First of all, a lot of the snow will fall at night. Once the sun comes up, the sun angle is similar to late August, so it’s awfully tough to accumulate in the daytime. Second of all, temperatures will be close to freezing. Third, the snow may come down at a decent clip, which will help bring down a little bit of colder air from aloft. Working against accumulating snow is the fact that the ground is warm. There aren’t many sources for ground temperatures, and the nearest station is in Bennington County, Vermont, but even there, the latest reading shows a soil temperature of 37, which is 3 degrees above normal. On pavement, it will have an even tougher time accumulating, if it at all. Despite air temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s this afternoon, pavement temperatures are in the 60s and 70s, thanks to the sunshine. They’ll drop at night, but with air temperatures staying above freezing, the pavement temperatures will as well. Any snow that does accumulate should quickly melt Saturday afternoon and evening, as rain and milder temperatures eat away at it.

It’s also fairly rare to get accumulating snow in late April. The last time that Boston or Providence had 1″ or more in late April or May was on April 28, 1987! In Lowell, 1″ or more has been recorded after April 16 only 6 times in the past 92 years, and the last one was on May 18, 2002. This is why we never declare winter to be “over” in March or even early April. Having said that, we’re not convince this is the last time we’ll see any flakes this season either. Many members of the ECMWF Ensemble are signalling the potential for some flakes around April 28-29. Will it happen? We’ll see. For now, it’s something to keep in the back of our mind and pay attention to.

So, how much snow are we expecting? Not much. For those of you inside I-495, you’ll see some flakes, but there will be little to no accumulation. From the Merrimack Valley into Southern New Hampshire, a coating to an inch, mainly on grassy surfaces. As you get into the hills of Worcester County and the Monadnocks, some places could see 2-4 inches of accumulation.

The GFS model is probably closest to our thinking for snowfall. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’re aware that many models are forecasting more snow than this, and over a wider area. However, the models are just tools, and knowledge an experience are a big factor in our forecasts. We explained why it’s tough to get accumulating snow at this time of year, and many of the models don’t factor that in. This is why you should always follow a trusted source for your forecasts. There are plenty of “Facebook Forecasters” out there who will just regurgitate the models, and gleefully tell you that 2-4″ or more is expected. Sure, it’s possible, but in reality, it’s not likely.

Another storm will pass south and east of New England on Monday, likely too far offshore to have much of an impact on us, but we’ll keep an eye on it anways. After that, as we mentioned earlier, we’ll keeping an eye on the period around April 28-29. Hopefully that doesn’t pan out and winter is truly over. However, this is New England, so who knows. For now, stay safe, and watch the snow fall Saturday morning.

Weekly Outlook: April 13-19, 2020

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We’ve got quite the storm coming in to start the week, but it’s not the only one that may impact us before the week is out.

The high-resolution NAM model depicts the progression of rain across the region with some embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Low pressure will head through the Great Lakes and into Ontario today, bringing some very adverse weather into the region. We’ll have periods of rain, possibly heavy at times throughout the day, with some thunderstorms possible as well. The biggest threat will be the wind. High Wind Warnings have been posted for nearly all of Southern New England, with Wind Advisories for southern portions of New Hampshire and Maine. Sustained southerly winds of 25-35 mph are likely, with gusts to 50 mph or more common, especially in southern New England. This would be enough to take down some trees and power lines, but it could end up being worse. Not far above the surface, winds will be screaming out of the south at 90-100 mph. We’ll have some relatively stable air below that, keeping those winds aloft from getting down to the surface for the most part. However, some of the heavier downpours, especially in thunderstorms, will help bring some of those strong winds down during the afternoon, which could result in wind gusts of 60-70 mph or more, especially across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Wind gusts could exceed 60 mph across much of the region this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A cold front moves through during the evening, bringing an end to the rain, and allowing winds to rapidly diminish at night as they shift into the west. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with some sunshine, but it will remain breezy as Monday’s storm moves into northern Quebec. Clouds come right back in Tuesday night as low pressure rides along a front stalled out south of New England. It looks like this system will remain fairly far to the south, with the best chance for any shower activity across the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Another weak disturbance may bring in a few showers on Thursday. High pressure then builds in for Friday and the weekend, but we’ll have to keep our eyes on a couple of systems that look like they’ll stay south of the region right now.

Monday: Windy with rain, heavy at times, possibly some thunderstorms. High 56-63.

Monday night: Rain ending in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy with diminishing winds. Low 37-44.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 51-58.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with a few showers possible along the South Coast and across Cape Cod. High 45-52.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a few showers. High 43-50.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 45-52.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 48-55.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 52-59.

More Strong Winds and Rain for Monday

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A rather strong storm system will wreak all sorts of havoc on a large swath of the nation through the weekend and into Monday.

Low pressure will move out of the Plains states today and into the Great Lakes later Sunday into early Monday. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Low pressure is moving into the Plains states today, producing some strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas into the Southern Plains. That’s just the start of what will be a busy few days. As the storm moves into the southern Plains tonight, showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will spread from Texas into the Mississippi Valley. To the north, snow is expected across the Central Plains. Some locations could pick up 6-12 inches this weekend in a swath from Nebraska and South Dakota into parts of Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

A severe weather outbreak is possible across a large portion of the South on Easter Sunday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Easter Sunday is the day that will likely grab most of the headlines away from the pandemic for a day. As the system moves into the Ohio Valley, warm, moist air will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and as this clashes with the cold air advancing southward behind the storm, the ingredients will be in place for a severe weather outbreak. Severe weather may be ongoing as Easter Sunday dawns across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but activity will spread eastward during the day across the Deep South and the Tennessee Valley. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, torrential downpours, and likely numerous tornadoes. The risk will continue well into the overnight hours, especially in Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western portions of the Carolinas.

The severe weather threat shifts to the East Coast on Monday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

By Monday, the system will move into Ontario, dragging a strong cold front across the Eastern United States. Warm, humid air will continue to flow northward ahead of this front, triggering more showers and thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon from northern Florida into the Mid-Atlantic states. Some of these storms could produce hail, strong winds, heavy downpours, and some tornadoes, especially from the Carolinas to the Delmarva Peninsula.

Heavy snow is likely from Wisconsin in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Sunday into early Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

To the north, heavy snow will continue behind the storm from northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Ontario. Snowfall totals of 10-20 inches or more are likely. Winds gusting to 40-50 mph will create significant blowing and drifting of the snow, with blizzard conditions at times.

Precipitation has been below normal across much of the Northeast during the first 100 days of 2020. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Here in the Northeast, the big story will be the wind. Rain will be a secondary concern, with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches possible across much of the region. Some embedded thunderstorms may produce heavier downpours, especially in western New England and eastern New York, but flooding isn’t much of a concern. Precipitation has been below normal across much of the area through a good chunk of the winter and early Spring, so we need all the rain we can get, though maybe not quite this much at once. There will be some ponding on the roadways, and some of the smaller streams may overflow, but widespread flooding shouldn’t be a problem. The wind, on the other hand, will be a major problem.

High Wind Watches are in effect for parts of the Northeast, and these will likely expand over the next 12-24 hours. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

As the system gets cranked up in Ontario, strong southerly winds will develop across the region. These will bring milder air into the region. We won’t quite reach the 90s that will set records across Florida on Monday, but 50s and 60s are still a bit above normal for mid-April around here. Southerly winds will increase Monday morning, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph expected during the afternoon. Wind gusts of 60-70 mph or higher are expected as well. This will likely result in power outages as they take down trees that are starting to show their leaves, along with power lines. Winds should start to diminish during the evening as a cold front moves through, bringing an end to the rain and shifting the winds into the west.

Wind gusts of 60-70 mph or higher could be widespread Monday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Conditions should improve on Tuesday as high pressure builds in with some sunshine developing, but it will still be breezy as the now-powerful storm moves into northern Quebec, where heavy snow will likely continue.

A Little Bit of Everything on Thursday

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An approaching storm system will make for quite the interesting Thursday across New England.

The low pressure system that will generate severe weather across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys this afternoon and evening will head northeastward tonight, and pass right over New England on Thursday. It will produce a variety of weather across our six-state region, depending on where you’re located. Across southern New England, we’ll have heavy rain, possibly some thunderstorms, and strong winds. Across northern New England, this could turn out to be quite a snowstorm.

The High-Resolution NAM model shows the progression of the system over the next couple of days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Starting with southern New England, we’ll see showes developing during the morning, becoming a steady rain during the afternoon. With warmer air moving at the surface, thunderstorms may develop as the system moves in. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds, and hail, as there will be plenty of cold air aloft with an upper-level low pressure system moving into the Northeast.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Southern New England under a marginal risk for severe weather on Thursday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The rain and thunderstorms should come to an end by late afternoon, but that’s only half of the threat. A cold front will cross the region, with strong winds likely behind it. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, with gusts of 40-50 mph or higher are likely. These winds may diminish a bit overnight, but will likely pick back up on Friday as the storm continues to intensify across eastern Canada. That upper-level low pressure area will also be overhead, so we’ll have plenty of clouds and a few showers popping up. With the cold air aloft, some of those showers could produce some small hail or graupel.

Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph in places Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While we are dealing with strong winds and thunderstorms, it’ll be a completely different story across northern New England. Temperatures will be much cooler across Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, with much of the precipitation falling in the form of snow, especially in the mountains. Some of the snow will be quite heavy, with a foot or more possible, especially across Maine and northern New Hampshire. Winter Storm Watches are in effect for parts of the region. The snow will also be accompanied by strong winds, gusts to 40 mph or more, which may create blizzard conditions at times. There’s already little travel going on due to the pandemic, but there should be even less over the next few days.

Parts of northern New England, especially Maine and northern New Hampshire, could pick up more than a foot of snow Thursday into Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The snow should wind down on Friday, but with the upper-level low in place, snow showers may continue. Some of those snow showers may spread into the Berkshires as colder air works its way in. Some wet snow is even possible into the Worcester Hills and Monadnocks.

High pressure will build in for the weekend with drier weather, but our next system looks to move in on Monday. That one looks like a rain-maker right now, and it might produce a decent amount of rainfall. We’ve been a bit dry this winter, so we need all the rain we can get right now to avoid slipping into a drought.

Weekly Outlook: April 6-12, 2020

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Another week when you’re stuck in the house, and for at least a few days this week, that might not be a bad thing.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, which will result in a pair of very nice days for Monday and Tuesday. Monday will feature sunshine, mild temperatures and gusty winds, while Tuesday will feature less wind, but a little more cloud cover in the afternoon, as well as a seabreeze along the coast. The clouds will be streaming in ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the Great Lakes. A backdoor cold front will slip down the coastline Tuesday night and that low pressure area will ride along it. It will bring in some rain Wednesday morning, along with some cooler weather.

Temperatures could be quite mild this afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While the rain will end Wednesday morning as low pressure pulls away, Wednesday will remain cloudy and chilly thanks to a northeast flow off the Atlantic. Another system quickly follows on Thursday, with more rain likely, possibly even a few wet snowflakes, especially across southern New Hampshire and some of the hilly terrain in central Massachusetts. The rain ends as the system pulls away Thursday night, but an upper-level low pressure area will remain nearby, keeping the region rather cool for the weekend. It will also keep clouds around, and possibly a few showers, especially on Friday. A storm system may bring in some rain on Sunday, but at this time, it looks like it may hold off until Monday, so we’ll keep the forecast dry for now (not that you can really go out and do anything right now).

Thursday’s storm system may produce some gusty winds across much of the region. I age provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds, breezy. High 56-63.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 57-64.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing after midnight. Low 35-42.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, showers ending in the morning. High 44-51.

Thursday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain likely, ending in the evening. Some wet snow may mix in across some of the hilly terrain. High 45-52.

Friday: Some morning sun, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 45-52.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 45-52.

Sunday: Morning sunshine, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 47-54.

Weekly Outlook: March 30-April 5, 2020

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It’s probably a good thing that most of us don’t have anywhere to go this week, since the weather is going to be on the dreary side.

Rainfall has been well below normal across the Northeast this year, so we need all the rain that we can get right now. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The low pressure system that produced last night’s thunderstorms is moving away, but another system will pass to the north today, dragging a cold front across the region. At the same time, an upper-level low pressure system will move across the region. Add those up and we’ll have plenty of clouds and some showers. Showers and drizzle will linger into the evening, and as cooler air settles in, we could even see some wet snow mix in, especially across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts.

Rain may change to wet snow before ending across the region late tonight and early Tuesday. Little to no accumulation is expected. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

That upper-level low moves offshore on Tuesday, but we’ll be stuck with northeast winds, resulting in plenty of clouds, some drizzle, maybe a few showers, and cool conditions. That upper-level low will start to drift back westward Tuesday night into Wednesday, keeping us trapped in the drizzle, fog, and cool weather. In one sense, this is a good thing, as a storm system will be moving off the Carolina coastline. With the upper-level low up here, it will steer that system well offshore, but that doesn’t mean it won’t have any impact. It just won’t be a nor’easter. Instead, as it passes well south and east, a trough of low pressure will extend northwestward from it, back into New England. This will bring in more clouds and a better chance of showers for Thursday into Friday, especially along the coast, where winds may also be quite gusty at times.

Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible Friday morning, especially along the coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The low finally pulls away from the region later on Friday, resulting in some drier weather finally moving in for Saturday, along with milder conditions as high pressure builds into the Northeast. Sunday looks to be milder as well, but a cold front will start to move in by late in the day, with some more showers possible.

Monday: Plenty of clouds, maybe a few glimpses of sunshine along with some spotty drizzle. Showers may develop in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers possibly mixing with some wet snow before ending. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Clouds and some sunny breaks. High 39-46.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some low clouds and drizzle, especially along the coast. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine. High 42-49, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Cloudy with showers becoming likely. High 44-51, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, especially along the coast, showers gradually ending. High 45-52, coolest along the coast

Saturday: Low clouds and fog early, especially near the coast, then that big bright thing in the sky returns. High 45-52, coolest along the coast.

Sunday: Morning sunshine, then clouds come back in the afternoon. Showers are possible late in the day. High 48-55.

Weekly Outlook: March 23-29, 2020

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We’ve finally made it to Spring, so naturally, we’re expecting some snow. Look on the bright side – for many of you, it won’t have any impact on your commute!

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches/Warnings are in effect for parts of the area today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather

Clouds will stream into the region this morning as low pressure starts to take shape off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This system will strengthen as it heads northeastward, passing south and east of Nantucket early Tuesday. Ahead of it, we could see some flurries or snow showers develop late this morning thanks to an onshore flow, but the steadier precipitation associated with the storm arrives during the mid-to-late afternoon hours. There will be some dry air in place, so as the atmosphere moistens up, it will allow temperatures to drop, so we’ll see the precipitation start off as snow for most, with rain across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Temperatures will likely be near or above freezing, so a quick change to rain is expected across much of eastern Massachusetts. The changeover should take place during the evening across the Merrimack Valley and New Hampshire Seacoast, and by midnight across the rest of southern New Hampshire. This will be a fast-moving storm, so everything should wind down before midnight. Even this close to the storm, we’ve got some significant discrepancies among the models as the how much snow to expect. There are still some models forecasting significant accumulations for parts of the area, and then there’s others like the GFS, playing the part of Alfred E. Neuman.

This pretty much sums up the GFS forecast for today’s storm.

As for how much we’re expecting, we’ll get to that in a second. There are some facts both good and bad that go into that forecast, that we’d like to explain.
1. Temperatures will be right around freezing in many places, so what does fall as snow will be wet snow.
2. Elevation will play a role in amounts, as higher elevations should receive more snow, as they’ll be a bit colder.
3. Ground temperatures, especially pavement temperatures, are getting fairly mild now, so accumulations will be more likely on grassy surfaces.
4. The initial burst of snow will fall during the daytime. With the higher sun angle, that’ll make it a little tougher to accumulate as well. However, once it gets dark out, that isn’t a factor.
5. The closer you are to the ocean, the quicker precipitation will change to rain.

So, having said all that, here’s our forecast:
Southeastern Massachusetts/Southern Rhode Island – Zip, Zero, Nada
I-95 Belt (Boston-Providence) – A few flakes
Metro West/North Shore/Northern Rhode Island – An inch or so
Merrimack Valley/New Hampshire Seacoast – 1-2 inches
Southern New Hampshire (Nashua/Manchester/Concord) – 1-3 inches, maybe 4″ in a few spots

The jackpot will be from the Worcester Hills into the Monadnocks, where some places could see as much as 4-8 inches.

While not identical to our forecast, the National Weather Service model blend forecast is similar to ours. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

So, the storm pulls away and skies clear out on Tuesday. With sunshine, temperatures should get well into the 40s, maybe even some low 50s. So, you probably won’t even need to shovel, not that you really can go anywhere. The nice weather doesn’t last long as another system quickly follows for later Wednesday into early Thursday. This system will likely take a similar track to today’s storm, but the atmosphere will be a bit warmer, so this should be mainly rain, with some wet snow at the start across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley.

High pressure builds back for Thursday into early Friday with drier conditions. We may be looking at yet another storm bringing in some rain on Saturday before drier weather returns on Sunday

We didn’t have a St. Patrick’s Day parade, so how about a parade of low pressure systems this week? Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy with snow developing in the afternoon, except rain across southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island. High 3542.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with snow changing to rain from southeast to northwest before ending. Low 31-38.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 47-54.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, clouds move back in overnight. Low 30-37.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely late in the day and at night, possibly mixed with some wet snow, mainly across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. High 40-47.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers ending early, some sun may develop in the afternoon. High 43-50.

Friday: A sunny start, then clouds return, breezy. High 49-56.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 47-54.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 51-58.

Weekly Outlook: March 16-22, 2020

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While everything around comes to a grinding halt, the weather does not, which means that here at StormHQ, The Show Must Go On. This week, that will be a variety show.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, so we’ll have a sunny but rather chilly Monday. The dry weather won’t last much longer though, as the high moves offshore and a disturbance moves into the Great Lakes. This will bring some precipitation in for Tuesday. While most of us will just see some rain, there could be some wet snow mixed in at that start Tuesday morning across southern New Hampshire. We’re not expecting any accumulation, and despite what this winter has been like, this is a fairly normal occurrence in mid-March. The rain ends late in the day and high pressure builds back in with sunshine and seasonable conditions returning for Wednesday.

While today is on the chilly side, the first 2 weeks of March are among the Top 5 warmest on record for the region. Image provided by the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

The latter half of the week isn’t looking that great right now. We’re not expecting any big storms, but a series of smaller ones. The first one moves in for Wednesday night and Thursday. With some cold air in place, this one may start as snow for much of the area (except southern areas), but should change over to rain during the morning. If there’s any accumulation (and it is a possibility this time), it will be most likely across grassy areas and at elevation. Would we be surprised if we end up with some coatings from southern New Hampshire into the northern and western suburbs of Boston? Of course not. In fact, one model shows the potential for a lot more than just coatings. if the trend continues that way, we’ll do a special update later in the week.

There’s still a wide variety of model solutions for Thursday morning, some some snow is possible. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The rain ends during the Thursday evening, but another storm quickly follows. This one will move across the Great Lakes, with significantly milder air expected on Friday. Of course, it will be accompanied by rain, but it’s not like you can do much to head out an enjoy it anyway, right? The rain ends Friday night as a cold front moves through, then high pressure builds in next weekend with sunshine and colder weather once again.

Friday could be a very mild day despite cloudcover and some showers. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine fades behind increasing and thickening afternoon clouds. High 34-41.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 26-33, but temperatures may hold steady or drift up a few degrees after midnight.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers likely, possibly starting as some wet snow across southern New Hampshire. High 44-51.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Sunshine gives way to afternoon clouds again, snow develops late at night, except rain along the South Coast. High 43-50.

Thursday: Cloudy with snow changing to rain, ending by evening. Some accumulation is possible, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 43-50.

Friday: Cloudy, breezy, and quite mild with showers redeveloping. High 62-69.

Saturday: A cloudy start, then skies become mostly sunny, breezy. High 43-50.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 36-43.

Weekly Outlook: March 9-15, 2020

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March Madness is upon us, and we’re not just talking about the NCAA basketball tournament. We’ve got some interesting weather coming up this week.

High pressure slides offshore today, and with southwest winds flowing around that high, we’ve got some very mild weather on tap. Temperatures should get into the 60s in many locations today, with some spots possibly topping 70. Not everywhere will be that warm though. Along the South Coast, those southwest winds will be blowing over water that is still in the 40s, so it”ll be much cooler across the Cape, Islands, Southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island. A backdoor cold front may move into the New Hampshire Seacoast and possibly northeastern Massachusetts tonight, with much cooler conditions, but it will likely head back northward on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of the region should be quite mild once again despite some cloudcover. That front brings in some showers late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Temperatures could top 70 degrees in spots this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure returns on Wednesday with some sunshine and cooler conditions. The dry weather doesn’t last too long as another weak system moves in Wednesday night. This one will produce some rain showers, but a few wet snowflakes are possible, especially across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley.

It’s been a very dry start to 2020, so we can use any rain that we can get. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Dry weather returns on Thursday, but again, it looks like it will be a brief respite. Another system moves in for Friday with more rain. While it doesn’t look that heavy right now, it will be a bit more substantial that the system Wednesday night. High pressure builds in behind that system with dry and seasonably cool conditions next weekend.

Monday: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds at times. High 62-69, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 41-48, except 34-41 from Essex County up into the New Hampshire Seacoast and Southern Maine.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds, breezy, some showers may develop late in the day. High 57-64, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers likely during the evening, some clearing is possible late at night. Low 36-43.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny in the morning, clouds return in the afternoon, chance for a few showers at night, maybe a few wet snowflakes mixed in as well. High 48-55.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine. High 45-52.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild again with some rain likely. High 50-57.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High 44-51.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 39-46.