We’ve got some unsettled weather to start and end the weekend, but in between, it should be rather nice.
The drought continues across the region, but we’ll put another big dent in it this weekend. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
A cold front is approaching the region, and we’ll have some rain and gusty winds ahead of it tonight into Friday. Some of the heavy could be heavy, especially from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire, where flood watches are in effect. The rain tapers off to showers Friday morning, ending from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Skies clear out Friday night, then high pressure builds in for Saturday with sunshine and mild temperatures. Sunday also looks mild, but clouds will start to increase ahead of the next system moving toward the region. That system will bring in showers and cooler weather for Monday into Tuesday. In fact, much of next week is looking cool at this point.
Between tonight and Monday, we’re expecting quite a bit of rain around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Breezy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. Low 57-64.
Friday: Rain tapers off to showers, ending during the afternoon. Winds diminish in the morning. High 65-72.
Friday night: Any lingering showers end during the evening, then skies clear out. Low 44-51.
Saturday: Sunny and mild. High 62-69.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 45-52.
High pressure will be in control for much of the upcoming week, but there is some unsettled weather on the way.
Normal high temperatures for mid-October are still in the middle 60s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Another cool day to start off the week with a weak frontal system moving through, but only producing some clouds. High pressure will be in in control with moderating temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday with dry weather. Clouds will start to move in later Wednesday and Thursday as a strong cold front starts to approach the region. That front will bring in a period of rain and showers for Thursday night and early Friday, along with some gusty winds at times. Behind the front, high pressure builds back in with cooler weather for next weekend.
Some models are showing the potential for heavy rain Thursday into Friday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Partly sunny, just a slight chance for an afternoon sprinkle, mainly north of Boston. High 59-66.
Monday night: Clear skies. Low 38-45.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 60-67.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 40-47.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 65-72.
Thursday: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy with showers developing in the afternoon, possibly becoming a period of rain at night. High 65-72.
Friday: Showers end in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. High 64-71.
Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 59-66.
Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 59-66.
We’ve got one more mild day coming up but fall weather really arrives.
We’ll have some clouds across the region tonight as a weak upper-level disturbance crosses the Northeast, but Friday is shaping up to be another fantastic early October day with mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures, with many locations topping 70. However, a strong cold front will slice across the region late in the day. It will be accompanied by some clouds and possibly a few showers, but for the most part, it’ll have little fanfare. Behind it, you’ll notice a big difference. High pressure builds in for the weekend with sunshine for Saturday through Monday, but temperatures will be significantly cooler. Many locations may fail to top 60 on Saturday despite ample sun, and some frost is possible Saturday night as temperatures tumble into the 30s in some of the normally cooler locations. Temperatures will moderate a bit for Sunday and Monday, but will still be near or a little below normal for early October.
Saturday morning is looking quite chilly. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.
Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, chance for a few late-day showers. High 69-76.
Friday night: Gradual clearing. Low 40-47.
Saturday: Sunny and cool. High 54-61.
Saturday night: Clear and chilly. Low 35-42.
Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 56-63.
Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 38-45.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 57-64.
The first full week of October will bring us a variety of weather between now and next weekend.
We’re starting the week off on a cool note. High pressure will be located to the north, while the remains of Ian will generate a new low pressure area to our south, off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The gradient in between the two will produce some gusty northeast to east winds for the next few days. This will result in below normal temperatures. The high to the north will help keep the region dry for the most part, but the low to the south, which will take its time moving out to sea, will be closer enough to bring some clouds in, with a few showers possible, mainly near the South Coast, and mainly Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Once again, the models don’t agree on how far north the rain gets and how much will fall. We’re leaning towards lighter amounts, mainly near the South Coast. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
By Thursday, the low finally pulls away, and the high slides eastward as well, resulting in sunshine and warmer temperatures. Friday looks to be similar, but a strong cold front will be advancing toward the region. While it will be starved for moisture, it will usher the coolest airmass so far this fall into the region. Saturday looks to be breezy and quite cool, with a widespread frost and/or freeze possible Saturday night as the winds die down. Sunday should remain dry, but temperatures will remain on the cool side.
Saturday night is looking rather chilly right now. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy. High 53-60.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42 north and west of I-95, 43-50 south and east of I-95.
Tuesday: Plenty of clouds, breezy, chance for a few showers late in the day near the South Coast. High 56-63.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with some showers possible, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island. Low 45-52, a little cooler across southern New Hampshire.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, breezy again, chance for a few more showers across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. High 58-65.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny and milder. High 66-73.
Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 68-75.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and much cooler. High 54-61.
What’s left of Hurricane Ian will bring some rain into part of the region this weekend.
Ian may not get anywhere close to us, but the rain from the storm will. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
High pressure remains in control tonight and Friday with dry and cool conditions, but high clouds will be streaming northward, which will result in limited sunshine on Friday. By Saturday, what’s left of Ian will start to meander around across the Mid-Atlantic states, but some of the rain associated with it will move into southern New England. There are still questions as to how far north the rain will get, but for now at least, the best chance for rain looks to be south of Mass Pike. Most of the heavy rain should stay offshore to the south, but it could make it into the South Coast at times. Accompanying the rain will be gusty east to northeast winds, resulting in some rather cool temperatures as October begins. We may get a bit of a lull in the rain later Sunday into Monday as Ian’s remains drift around well to our southwest.
The models don’t agree on how much rain will fall and how far north it will get. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Increasing high clouds. Low 40-47, a little milder along the coast south of Boston.
Friday: Sunshine dimmed by thickening clouds. High 58-65.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 43-50.
Saturday: Cloudy with rain developing, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 56-63.
Saturday night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with more showers, mainly south of the Mass Pike. Low 47-54.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, windy, and cool, chance for a few morning showers, mainly near the South Coast. High 53-60.
Much of the forecast for this week is fairly straightforward, but it gets very complicated next weekend.
An upper-level trough of low pressure will move across the Northeast today into Tuesday. This means we’ll have some clouds popping up with a few showers developing during the afternoon, mainly on Monday, but a couple are possible on Tuesday as well. Wednesday through Friday will feature high pressure, which means we’ll remain dry and on the cool side. Next weekend has a high amount of uncertainty, and it has to do with Tropical Storm Ian.
Normal high temperatures in late September are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
As of 12am Monday, Tropical Storm Ian was centered about 115 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman, moving toward the northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 70 mph. The forecast calls for Ian to pass close to the Cayman Islands on Monday as a hurricane, then near or across western Cuba Monday night and Tuesday before moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Ian could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane over the next few days. After that, its future gets a little murkier. A trough of low pressure across the eastern US should steer Ian northward and at some point northeastward, but when it makes that turn is not clear. This impacts where and when landfall will occur. At this point, landfall is possible anywhere from Fort Myers, Florida all the way to New Orleans. Complicating matters even more is the fact that as it gets farther northward, drier air and wind shear will act to weaken the storm. So, a sooner landfall (say in the Ft Myers to Tampa area) could result in a stronger storm making landfall, but if it heads toward the Florida Panhandle or central Gulf Coast, it could be considerably weaker at landfall. An earlier turn toward the northeast could also result in Ian moving back into the Atlantic, and thus could be a threat to the Carolinas.
The members of the various ensembles show a wide range of tracks for Ian as you get out to next weekend. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
So, how does that impact our forecast next weekend? Well, an earlier turn would likely keep the storm off to our south, with high pressure holding on over the Northeast, keeping us drier. A landfall farther north likely results in the storm rapidly weakening over land, but increases the possibility that the remains move up the Appalachians and bring some rain, possibly heavy, in here or across northern New England next weekend. At this point, it’s just too early to figure out which scenario may occur, so we’re going to be very vague in the forecast for now.
Most of the models keep the heavier rain both north and south of the region next weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds with a few showers possible in the afternoon, mainly north and west of Boston. High 68-75.
Monday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a few showers during the evening. Low 51-58.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, just a slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 67-74.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 47-54.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 64-71.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 60-67.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 59-66.
Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers. High 63-70.
Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance for showers. High 63-70.
Remember all that talk not too long ago about how quiet hurricane season had been? Well, we now have four active systems in the Atlantic, one in the eastern Pacific, and two more in the western Pacific.
The tropics are very active right now. Image provided by Brian McNoldy, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School.
We’ll start off with Hurricane Fiona, as it is the strongest one of the four and also the biggest threat. As of 5pm EDT, Fiona was centered about 370 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving toward the north-northeast at 40 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 125 mph, making Fiona a high-end Category 3 storm. Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada. An upper-level trough across the eastern US will pull Fiona a bit more toward the north later today and tonight. Fiona is expected to steadily weaken and become extratropical as it moves over cooler waters, but this is both good and bad. It’s good because it will be a weaker storm, but it’s bad because the extratropical transition means that the wind field will spread out, bringing stronger winds to a much larger area. Fiona is expected to make landfall in eastern Nova Scotia early Saturday as an extratropical system with the equivalent strength of a Category 2 hurricane. While Atlantic Canada is no stranger to powerful extratropical storms from the Fall into the Spring, this one will be much stronger than most of those storms. Widespread wind damage is likely as well as storm surge flooding near the coastline. Freshwater flooding won’t be as much of a concern as the system will be moving too quickly to drop excessive rain in many locations. Across parts of Labrador and eastern Quebec, cold air on the backside of the storm will allow the rain to change to snow, with several inches of accumulation possible in spots.
Forecast track for Hurricane Fiona. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
Fiona has already left a trail of destruction in its wake, and will almost certainly have its name retired after the season ends. It crossed the Lesser Antilles a week ago, producing some wind damage and flooding across Guadeloupe and nearby islands. Heavy rain and strong winds buffeted the Virgin Islands next, especially across St. Croix, but Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic were the beneficiaries of Fiona’s full fury. Torrential rainfall led to widespread severe flooding, and wind gusts in excess of 115 mph resulted in widespread damage across the region. At one point, the entire island of Puerto Rico was without power. Many locations in this region are still trying to recover from Hurricane Maria back in 2017. After leaving the Great Antilles, Fiona brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the nearby southeastern Bahamas. Finally, Fiona passed just west of Bermuda late last night and early this morning. Although the core of the storm missed the island, there were still reports of wind gusts to 100 mph. Large swells from Fiona have been impacting the Eastern US for the past few days and will gradually subside through the weekend.
Radar loop of Fiona approaching and crossing Puerto Rico. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School
Next up is Tropical Storm Gaston. As of 5pm EDT, Gaston was centered about 70 miles north of Faial Island in the Central Azores, moving toward the south at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect of the islands of the Western and Central Azores. Gaston is expected to turn more toward the southwest, then west over the next day or two. This will bring the center of Gaston closer to or across parts of the Azores. Gusty winds and heavy rain that could produce flooding and mudslides are expected. Steady weakening is expected, and Gaston will likely become extratropical by Sunday.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Gaston. Loop provided by NOAA.
Tropical Storm Hermine just formed late this afternoon in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. As of 5pm EDT, Hermine was centered about 290 miles northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the north-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Hermine’s forecast calls for a little strengthening tonight, then it’ll weaken as it moves back over cooler water, and it will likely dissipate before the weekend is over. However, it will bring some heavy rain to parts of the Canary Islands over the weekend, with rainfall totals of 2-4 inches and locally heavier possibly resulting in flooding in some spots.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Hermine. Loop provided by NOAA.
The last storm in the Atlantic is Tropical Depression 9. As of 5pm EDT, TD9 was centered about 430 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. The short-term forecast for the depression is fairly simple. It should head more toward the west tonight and Saturday while steadily strengthening. Once it reaches Tropical Storm strength it will be named Ian. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands. The storm should pass south of Jamaica late Saturday or early Sunday, then turn more toward the northwest and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday as a strong tropical storm, or possibly a hurricane. It should approach western Cuba on Monday, likely as a hurricane. Heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge are expected across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, and to a lesser extent across Jamaica. After that, things get more complex.
Forecast track for Tropical Depression 9 through the next 3 days. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
A trough of low pressure will move into the eastern US, which should steer the system northward, and eventually northeastward. When that turn occurs is vital to the forecast. Once the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it should strengthen, and could become a major hurricane, so obviously, where it heads towards becomes an important question. As you can see from the image below, the various model ensemble members do not agree on where that turn happens. Some have it miss the trough and head more toward the northwest, while the majority have it move toward western Florida or the Florida Panhandle. Beyond that, some bring it inland into the Southeast, others have it cross Florida and then become a threat to the East Coast. Some even bring it into New England or Nova Scotia (which would be really bad), and many just head out to sea once back in the Atlantic. Obviously, this is something that we won’t have a better handle on for at least a few more days, but anyone from the Central Gulf to the East Coast should keep an eye on this storm’s progress.
Ensemble forecasts for the track if Tropical Depression 9. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
There are a few other active systems in the Pacific as well. Tropical Storm Newton is expected to pull away from Socorro Island off of the Mexican coastline tonight and head out into the open waters of the eastern Pacific where it should weaken and dissipate over the next several days. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Talas is expected to dissipate just off the south coast of Japan on Saturday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Noru will become an increasing threat to the Philippines over the next few days. As of Friday evening, Noru was centered about 580 miles east-northwest of Manila, moving toward the west-southwest a 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph. The forecast calls for steady strengthening, and Noru is expected to cross Luzon early Sunday as a typhoon. It should re-emerge in the South China Sea later in the day, then head westward, gathering strength early next week. It could make landfall in Vietnam by mid-week as a typhoon.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Noru. Image provided by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration.
We’ll provide an update on TD9 in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning, then likely do a full blog post about it later in the day on Monday.
Fall has begun and fall weather is arriving right on schedule.
Cooler weather is already filtering in behind the cold front that moves through earlier today, and gusty northwest winds on Friday will result in the coolest day across the region in the past several months. High pressure will bring plenty of sunshine, but temperatures may struggle to reach 60 across parts of the area. The high slides off to the east on Saturday, allowing temperatures to moderate a bit, but it will remain breezy. Sunday may start off with some sunshine, but clouds will quickly move in as the next system moves toward the area. Some showers are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning, but most of the daylight hours on Sunday should be dry. Most of Monday looks dry too, with the rain ending in the morning, then some sunshine may develop in the afternoon.
Saturday morning will feature wind chills in the 30s. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona will remain a powerful storm in the Atlantic. It’ll pass west of Bermuda tonight, then start to weaken and become extratropical as it heads northward toward eastern Nova Scotia. When it moves inland late Saturday or early Sunday, it will be an incredibly strong storm, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to most of eastern Canada. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for most of Atlantic Canada, and a High Wind Watch is in effect across eastern Maine. Around here, we may see some of the clouds on the western edge of the storm, but the bigger impact will be rough seas and large waves impacting the coast. A High Surf Advisory is in effect along the coast, with a Gale Warning for the coastal waters. Conditions should start to improve on Sunday as the storm moves into eastern Canada.
Forecast track for Hurricane Fiona. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 42-49.
Changes are on the way as astronomical summer comes to an end and autumn begins later this week.
We start the week off with a backdoor cold front stalled out across the region, making for a rather tricky temperature forecast. North of the front, northeast to east winds will keep temperatures in the 60s (even upper 50s near the coast), while south of the front, temperatures will get well into the 70s once again. A wave of low pressure will pass north of the region later today, producing some showers and possibly thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Tuesday looks to remain rather cloudy and on the cool side with a few more showers possible as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region. Wednesday should be a rather nice day with some sunshine and milder temperatures, but don’t get used to it. Another cold front starts to approach late in the day, with another round of showers and perhaps thunderstorms expected Wednesday night into early Thursday. This brings us to the start of fall and the bigger changes.
Temperatures at midday may range from near 60 along the NH Seacoast to near 80 along the South Coast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The autumnal equinox occurs at 9:03pm Thursday, marking the end of astronomical summer and start of astronomical fall, and right on cue, some fall weather will settle in. The system moving through early Thursday will move offshore, allowing much cooler air to settle in. How cool? The rain may end as some wet snow across the mountains of northern New England. (Yes, really.) Around here, high pressure builds in, and despite sunshine, temperatures may struggle to reach 60 in some spots on Friday. Friday night looks rather chilly, with some frost possible in the normally cooler locations. Temperatures will moderate a bit over the weekend, but likely will remain below to near normal.
Friday is shaping up to be a rather cool day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: A few sunny breaks across Cape Cod early, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers or some drizzle early, showers becoming more widespread during the afternoon, except along the South Coast. High 57-64 across the Maine and NH Seacoast, 64-71 elsewhere north of the Mass Pike and east of Worcester, 72-79 south of the Mass Pike.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mostly before midnight. Low 55-62.
Tuesday: More clouds than sun, chance for another shower or two. High 64-71.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, showers move in by evening, continuing overnight. High 68-75.
Thursday: Showers gradually ending, skies start to clear out late in the day, breezy at times. High 68-75.
Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, and cool. High 57-64.
It’s starting to feel like fall around here, but temperatures will warm up again, and some rain is on the way.
Friday morning will be on the chilly side when you walk out the door. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure keeps the region dry and cool into Saturday before it finally pushes offshore. Some of the haze and smoke from the fires out West may drift across the region tonight and early Friday, which could result in a colorful sunrise Friday morning if you’re up that way. By Sunday, the high slides offshore, and we start to warmup, but clouds will also be moving in. Late Sunday and Monday is much more uncertain. A backdoor cold front is going to try and drop southward, but whether it actually gets here or not is something the models don’t agree on. Some showers may move in late Sunday ahead of the front, but they’ll be more likely on Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along that front. As for temperatures on Monday, they will be highly dependent on the location of the front. North of the front, temperatures may stay in the 60s, while south it will be in the 70s or even low 80s. For now, we’re leaning toward the warmer air being mainly south of the Mass Pike, with cooler conditions to the north, but this is obviously highly uncertain.
Some models keep parts of the region warm on Monday, some don’t. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Meanwhile in the tropics, Tropical Storm Fiona has formed. As of 2pm, Fiona was centered about 465 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving toward the west at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for many of the islands in the northeastern Caribbean. The current forecast calls for some slow strengthening over the next few days, despite the presence of westerly wind shear. It is expected to track across the Leeward Islands late Friday, and pass very close to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands Saturday into early Sunday. Beyond that, there are a number of scenarios, and depending on which model you believe, the storm could end up anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico to Bermuda to dissipated completely by this time next week.
Forecast track for Fiona based on the various members of several different model ensembles. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy, hazy at times. Low 44-51.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 69-76.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 45-52.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 68-75.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 56-63.
Sunday: Morning sun, increasing afternoon clouds, showers possible late in the day. High 77-84, but temperatures may drop quickly late in the day, especially from northeastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire northward.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly during the evening. Low 58-65.
Monday: Plenty of clouds, with showers possible. High 65-72 north of the Mass Pike, 73-80 south of the Mass Pike.
Storm HQ 