Winter Weather

The Party’s Over – Here Comes the Snow

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We haven’t had a decent-sized snowstorm around here since late November. Well, that is about to end, much to the dismay of most of you. We’ve got several different concerns with this system, so we’ll try and touch on all of them.

Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for most of the Northeast with a Coastal Flood Watch for parts of the Massachusetts coastline. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ll start with what’s going on now. High pressure is building into Quebec, and this will bring cold air into the region. Tonight will be chilly, with lows in the teens, maybe even some single numbers. Meanwhile, low pressure is moving out of the Southern Plains. This low will move towards the Appalachians on Saturday, then off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Saturday night. This brings us to forecast problem number 1. Where does the low track from there? This is a critical point, as it will help determine what type of precipitation falls across the area. Some models keep the storm offshore, south of the Cape and Islands, while others bring it right across southeastern New England. We’re thinking it tracks pretty close to the Islands, but stays just to the south. By Sunday, it moves into the Gulf of Maine, and takes all of the precipitation away.

As for the timing of that precipitation, there’s not much disagreement among the models. Snow should move in during the evening hours (7-9pm) from west to east, and end during the afternoon (3-5pm) on Sunday, except across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts, where it may linger into Sunday night. The heaviest precipitation will likely fall between about 11pm Saturday and 8am Sunday, so if you don’t have to be out then, we’d recommend that you stay where you are.

The High-Resolution NAM model shows the progression of the precipitation across the region. Blue is snow, orange is sleet, purple is freezing rain, and green/yellow is rain. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

What type of precipitation is going to fall? Well, that is a BIG question, that is still in doubt for a large portion of the region. It should start as snow for everyone. It will likely change to rain across Cape Cod and the South Coast, and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. In between? That’s where things get really complicated. As we usually see during storms, we’re going to have a “coastal front” set up. Basically, the milder air from the ocean will push inland a bit. If you are south and east of this coastal front, temperatures will be near or just above freezing. If you are on the other side of the front, temperatures will be in the teens. Eventually, this front will collapse to the coast on Sunday, bringing the cold air in everywhere (more on that later). But the surface is only part of the equation. Warmer air will also move in aloft. How far inland it moves is something that that models disagree on right now. With warm air aloft and cold air at the surface, the precipitation will change to sleet or freezing rain, depending on how thick the layer of warm air is above the surface. Obviously, this will have a significant impact on snowfall amounts. Everything should go back to all snow Sunday afternoon as the coastal front collapses toward the coastline.

The high-resolution NAM model shows a well-defined coastal front setting up in the Merrimack Valley and the I-495 belt Sunday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ve got more concerns than just what falls from the sky though. The full moon is Sunday night, which means that tides will be astronomically high. That is usually enough for some minor coastal flooding in a few spots. However, when you add in east to northeast winds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 40-50 mph (or more), then you get coastal flooding in a much wider area, possibly even some moderate flooding in the more vulnerable locations. This is mainly a concern for the high tide that occurs Sunday morning. The winds will also be a concern inland, as it will create blowing and drifting snow, making driving even more hazardous.

We mentioned earlier that the coastal front would collapse to the coastline during the afternoon, bringing cold air back in everywhere. As that cold air comes rushing in, we expect everything to quickly freeze up Sunday afternoon and evening. This will create black ice on the roads, but more importantly, any snow still on your driveway, cars, roads, etc, will quickly turn into cement. You’ll want to get outside and quickly clear everything off, because the longer you wait, the more difficult it will become. Temperatures will continue to drop Sunday night, and as high pressure builds in, skies will clear out, which may allow for viewing of the total lunar eclipse Sunday night. On Monday, temperatures won’t rise that much, with many places likely staying in the single numbers or lower teens. It will still be breezy, so wind chills may stay below zero all day long. Temperatures will start to moderate on Tuesday, but longer-range indications are that we are in a colder (and stormier) pattern now, so winter has finally arrived.

This is the forecast high temperatures for Monday based on the GFS model. It’s going to be cold. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

OK, finally, the part you’ve all been wondering – how much are we getting? As we’ve said, the amount of sleet and freezing rain will have a significant impact on snow accumulations, so we’re going to keep our ranges somewhat wide for now, and if need be, we’ll put out an update on Saturday.

Cape Cod: 2-4″
Southeastern Massachusetts/Southern Rhode Island: 3-6″
I-95 corridor (including Boston and Providence): 4-8″
MetroWest/North Shore: 6-12″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 8-14″
Southern NH/Southern ME (Nashua/Manchester/Portland): 10-16″
Central NH (Concord): 12-18″

The NAM model is probably closest to our thinking right now, though some of these numbers may be a bit higher than our thoughts. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

If time allows, and/or there is a significant change in the forecast, we’ll update this on Saturday.

Weekly Outlook: January 14-20, 2019

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The hype train is already leaving the station – that’s right, there’s a “chance” for some snow next weekend. Since we haven’t had much snow yet this winter (haven’t heard many complaints about that), much of the media is going nuts, salivating at the prospect of a week of trying to outdo each other in the stupidity department. You’ll find none of that here, so let’s just get to the forecast.

We really haven’t that much snowfall so far this winter. Will that change? We’ll see. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We will start the week off with a little bit of snow for some of you, mainly along the coast and south of Boston. Northeast winds blowing over the still relatively mild Atlantic will produce a little ocean-effect snow across Cape Cod and parts of Plymouth County. We’re not talking about much more than a dusting, though a few localized spots could see an inch or even two. Otherwise, high pressure keeps us dry and seasonably cold right through Thursday.

On Friday, low pressure will approach from the west. We’ll see some light snow or rain with this system, with the best chance for any snow mainly north of the Mass Pike. Obviously, this will depend on exact track of the system, but temperatures won’t be that cold, the system won’t be that strong, and it’ll be moving along fairly quickly. So, not that big of a deal. High pressure builds in late Friday into Saturday while another storm system moves into the Southeast. This brings us to Sunday.

A little bit of snow is expected on Friday, mainly north and west of Boston. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Many of the forecast models are showing the potential for this system to head up the East Coast Saturday night into Sunday while high pressure moves into Quebec. This is the setup for a classic Nor’easter, and most of the models are showing this. They mainly show that Sunday will feature heavy snow, strong winds, and likely some coastal flooding due to the astronomical high tides. Some of the models are showing snowfall amounts in feet, not inches. Of course, many in the media have seen this, and are gleefully hyping it up already, while throwing in words like “possible” as an afterthought, after showing maps with model snowfall amounts, meaning that nobody hears the word “possible”. Here’s the thing, this is still 6-7 days away, and as we’ve mentioned more than a few times, the models have been absolutely horrible beyond about 2-3 days. So, why would we suddenly take a 7-day forecast and believe it now? Remember, the storm that hit Washington, DC yesterday was forecast by the models a week ago to bury New England instead. In short, yes, there is a “chance” for a storm next weekend, but we’re not buying what the models are selling just yet. If they are still forecasting this as we get towards Thursday or Friday, then maybe we’ll jump on board and have a blog post about it. Until then? Nope, not gonna do it.

One thing we are certain about for next Sunday is that the Patriots season will continue, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line against the Kansas City Chiefs. Right now, it looks like we’ll have clear skies for the game which kicks off at 6:40pm EST on Sunday, with a game-time temperature around 10 degrees. Obviously, this is subject to change for the reasons we outlined above in reference to the models. As for the game itself, the Patriots will make a 3rd straight trip to the Super Bowl after they knock off the Chefs Chiefs by a score of 34-31.

Monday: Morning flurries along the coast south of Boston, otherwise becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 27-34.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 15-22.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 30-37.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 34-41.

Thursday: Sunshine gives way to increasing clouds. High 23-30.

Friday: Cloudy with a chance for snow north of the Mass Pike, rain or snow south of the Pike. High 33-40.

Saturday: Some early sun, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 24-31.

Sunday: Cloudy and windy with a chance of snow. Highs ranging from the teens north and west of Boston, to the lower 30s across southeastern Massachusetts.

Weekly Outlook: January 7-13, 2019

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Since we’re into January, how about we change things up and get some snow in here? Whaddyathink? Good idea? Bad idea? Don’t worry, we’re not looking at much, well at least not in in the next few days.

The week starts off on a sunny, but chilly note with high pressure in control. Both the sunshine and cold temperatures won’t last long though as low pressure starts to approach the region. Clouds move in late in the day with some light snow developing at night. However, milder air will move in, so we’ll see a fairly quick change to rain south of the Mass Pike, with the change taking place farther north during the morning. Everything winds down by early afternoon, with accumulations of an inch or two possible, mainly in southern New Hampshire.

The Bears got a double-doink on Sunday, we get a double-whammy Tuesday into Wednesday, but ours won’t be that tough to take. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The story doesn’t end there, as another system will quickly follow for Tuesday night and Wednesday. This one will start off as rain everywhere Tuesday night, but as the system moves into the Gulf of Maine, it will bring some cold air in, possibly changing the rain back to snow before ending Wednesday afternoon or evening. Again, we’re not looking at much accumulation, so this is not a big deal. High pressure builds in with much colder weather behind that system for Thursday through Saturday. When we say cold, we mean COLD. As in, the type of weather we haven’t had since Thanksgiving. This brings us to next Sunday.

Highs in the upper teens to middle 20s on Friday? You’d think it was January or something. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Before we get to our thoughts on Sunday, let us say that most of the forecast models have been utter crap (note: technical term) this winter beyond about 2-3 days. This seems to happen every winter, but it doesn’t stop some of the morons that don’t know better from posting maps for a “potential” snowstorm that is a week or more away. As you’ve probably figured out by now, one of those “potential” storms is being shown by at least one of the models for the timeframe of next Sunday/Monday. In fact, over the past 2-3 days, nearly all of the models have shown this storm in one form or another, but never all at the same time. Some of them show the storm staying well south of us, with nothing happening. Some show it cutting right across New England, with rain to the south and snow to the north. Some show it clipping us with snow along the coast and nothing inland. Some show it not developing at all. And finally, some show a crippling blizzard. Of course, it’s the last one that gets the attention of the amateurs, because that’s the best way to generate clicks on their websites. It’s also the least likely scenario.

Of course, Sunday is also an important day because the Patriots host the Chargers at Gillette Stadium that afternoon. The Patriots excel in cold weather and snow, so this wouldn’t be a bad thing, unless you have tickets. The Patriots are 45-10 when the game-time temperature is 34 or colder, 13-2 in the postseason. They are 11-0 in Foxboro, when it snows.

There have been some memorable games played in the snow at Gillette Stadium. Is another one on the way? Image provided by ESPN

As for the forecast for Sunday? We wouldn’t be surprised if there was some snow, but probably not during the game. Obviously we’ll keep an eye on things, and if it does look like a storm is headed our way, we’ll have a special blog post once things become clearer. As for the game itself – Patriots 27 Chargers 23, and a trip to the AFC Championship game for the 8th year in a row.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, though clouds will start to move in late in the day. High 25-32.

Monday night: Cloudy with snow developing after midnight. Low 20-27 in the evening, then temperatures rise after midnight.

Tuesday: Cloudy with snow changing to rain from south to north, ending by early afternoon. Snow accumulation an inch or so from the Merrimack Valley into southern NH, less than an inch elsewhere. High 38-45.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely, possibly a little freezing rain or snow across central NH. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers gradually changing to snow showers before ending in the evening. Little snow accumulation expected. High 37-44.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and colder. High 30-37.

Friday: Mostly sunny and cold. High 18-25.

Saturday: A sunny start, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 21-28.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow. High 23-30.

Weekly Outlook: December 31, 2018-January 6, 2019

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Remember last week when we hinted that First Night could be really cold? Well, it seems as though we were wr….wro….wro….we were a little off.

It is NOT going to be a fun First Night in the Dakotas. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

First Night is actually going to be bitterly cold, if you’re planning on spending it in Fargo, where wind chills will be 25 to 35 degrees below zero when the clock strikes midnight. Around here? It’ll be a tad milder. Low pressure will move from the Great Lakes into northern New England later today and tonight. Precipitation will move in this evening, and it will likely still be cold enough for some snow, sleet, or freezing rain from the Merrimack Valley northward, at least at the start. Elsewhere, just some rain is expected. Milder air will move in aloft, and eventually at the surface too, changing the precipitation to rain everywhere overnight. That warm air may take its time moving in, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire, but New Years Morning will likely be quite mild across much of the area. Don’t get used to it, as a cold front moves through during the morning, with windy and colder conditions likely for the afternoon.

The NAM model shows cold air stubbornly hanging around in southern NH and the Merrimack Valley Tuesday morning, while everywhere else turns milder. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Tuesday afternoon is also when the Winter Classic takes places, featuring two of the absolute best sweaters in the NHL (and two of our favorite teams here at StormHQ) – the Boston Bruins and the Chicago Blackhawks. We’ll refrain from comment about the fact that it’s taking place at the home of the Angry Leprechauns – Notre Lame, er, Dame, or that outdoor hockey games are much better on TV than in person (trust us, we’ve experienced it), but for the game itself, it should be cloudy with temperatures in the middle 30s, which is pretty much perfect for outdoor hockey.

We’re not fans of outdoor hockey games, but we are fans of the Bruins and the Blackhawks. The weather will cooperate, so let’s hope for a great game (and a Bruins victory). Image provided by the National Hockey League.

As we head deeper into 2019, things get quieter (and colder) around here for a few days. High pressure builds in, and we’ll have generally dry and cool conditions for much of the remainder of the week, as we remain in a split jet-stream pattern. Basically, we’ve got a northern stream keeping some storms across southern Canada and to our north, and a southern stream keeping the warmer, juicier storms to our south. This will be the case on Friday when it looks like a southern stream storm will come along and give us some rain, while the northern stream remains locked up in Canada. If you don’t like snowstorms, then you want this pattern to continue. Why? Because if the streams cross, to quote Dr. Egon Spengler, “It would be bad.” That’s usually how we end up with some of our bigger snowstorms in the winter. As the storm moves by, colder air will work in behind it, with the rain possibly changing over to snow before ending on Saturday. High pressure then returns for next Sunday.

New Years Eve: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 37-44.

Monday Night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with rain developing, starting as some snow or a wintry mix from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. Rain ends towards daybreak. Low 32-39 during the evening, then temperatures will hold steady or slowly rise overnight.

New Years Day: A lingering shower early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 49-56 in the morning then temperatures quickly drop through the 40s during the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 27-34.

Thursday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a snow or rain shower. High 35-42.

Friday: Cloudy with rain developing in the afternoon, continuing at night. High 38-45.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with rain, possibly mixing with or changing to snow before ending late in the day. High 34-41.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 36-43.

Ready or Not, Snow is on the Way

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You’ve been dreading this day for months. Snow is in the forecast. Winter has arrived, and there’s not much you can do about it.

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Snow will develop this evening, but change to rain across most of the region by daybreak. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

High pressure is moving out of the region at midday after providing us with a chilly morning. Low pressure is starting to move northward from the Carolinas, and the clouds have already streamed in ahead of it. With that cold air still in place, as the moisture from the storm moves in, we’ll have snow developing late this afternoon and this evening across the area. Right along the coast, the precipitation may start off as rain, as water temperatures are still relatively warm.

As winds become easterly across the region, that warmer air will gradually push farther inland both at the surface and aloft. As a result, we’ll see the snow change to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually rain from south to north overnight. How quickly that warmer air moves in, especially aloft, will determine how much snow falls. More sleet and freezing rain would cut down on snow amounts, but also created some more hazardous driving conditions overnight, especially north and west of Boston.

By morning, we should be all rain for much of the region, though from central New Hampshire northward, it will still be fairly wintry. The rain may be heavy at times through the morning, which will probably wash away most of the snow that falls this evening. So, you probably won’t need the shovels or the snow brushes when you head out to work or school in the morning. Everything winds down around midday, then gusty northwest winds behind the storm help clear things out late in the day.

So, how much can we expect? Here’s our current thinking:

MA/RI coast/Cape Cod: Less than 1″
Interior E Mass/RI: 1-2″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 2-4″
Interior Southern NH (Manchester/Concord): 2-5″
Central NH: 4-7″

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The NAM model is closest to our thinking for the current storm, perhaps a little too high with snowfall across eastern Massachusetts. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Another weak system will come through late Sunday night into Monday morning. This will produce some snow or rain showers, but won’t be a big deal at all. Winter’s here, so you’d better get used to it.

 

Hurricanes, Severe Weather, and Snow, All at the Same Time (not the Same Place)

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For the third year in a row, the “M” storm in the Atlantic is prepared to wreak havoc on a populated area, but Michael isn’t the only headline maker in the weather at the moment.

Hurricane Michael isn’t the only storm in the news, but it is the biggest threat at the moment. As of early Tuesday afternoon, Michael was centered about 335 miles south of Panama City, Florida, moving toward the north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, making Michael a Category 2 Hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected over the next 12-18 hours as the storm moves over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida, with Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches surrounding the Hurricane Warnings. Tropical Storm Watches are also in effect for the Atlantic coast from northeastern Florida into South Carolina.

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Michael is going to pack quite a wallop when it slams into the Florida Panhandle Wednesday afternoon. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Michael is expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, likely as a Category 3 storm. Strong winds, torrential rainfall, storm surge, and some tornadoes are all possible with this storm. Unlike Florence, which hung around the Carolinas for days and dumped incredible amounts of rainfall on the region, Michael is expected to keep moving at a steady pace, emerging off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday morning. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are still expected in parts of the region, which will produce flooding in some areas, especially in Carolinas, where many areas are still recovering from Florence. Right along the coast, a storm surge of 6-12 feet is possible, especially in the Big Bend area of Florida. Fortunately, this area is not heavily populated, but for the residents that do live in this area, storm surge flooding is a significant threat.

Once it moves back into the Atlantic early Friday, it should pass well south of our area. The northern edge of the rainfall from the system could reach the South Coast, but the bulk of the heavy rain should remain well to the south.

This is the 3rd year in a row that the “M” storm is expected to result in significant damage to a populated area. In 2014, Category 5 Hurricane Matthew left a path of death and destruction across parts of Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and eventually parts of the southeastern United States. Last year, Category 5 Hurricane Maria devastated the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. While Michael is not expected to become a Category 5 storm, it is still expected to result in significant damage to parts of Florida and the Southeast.

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Tropical Storm Leslie has been around for near 2 weeks and still looks rather healthy. Loop provided by NOAA.

Meanwhile, in the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Leslie refuses to go away. As of midday Tuesday, Leslie was centered a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores, moving toward the south-southeast at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. The forecast for Leslie calls for a turn more toward the east over the next few days while it strengthens back into a hurricane. Leslie is expected to remain over open waters for the next few days, and could become an extratropical storm this weekend while continuing on a general easterly track.

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Nadine is a fish storm. Nothing to worry about here. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

To the south, Tropical Storm Nadine as formed nearly 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Nadine has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. Nadine is expected to remain fairly weak over open waters for the next several days while turning more toward the northwest. As it moves over colder water late this week and this weekend, it should weaken and eventually dissipate.

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What month is it again? 70s and 80s early in the afternoon on October 9th? Image provided by WeatherBell.

Back in the United States, unseasonably warm conditions remain in place across much of the eastern half of the nation. Temperatures are in the 70s and 80s across much of the region, which is 15 to 25 degrees above normal. A strong frontal system is located in the Plains states this afternoon, separating the warm air in the East, from much cooler weather behind it in the Plains and the Rockies. Right along this front, which hasn’t moved much for the past 24 hours, severe weather and heavy rainfall are common this afternoon.

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That’s snow in Colorado, and heavy rain along with severe weather from Texas into the Central Plains this afternoon. Loop provided by WeatherTAP.

Several tornadoes have been reported already today, including a few in the Oklahoma City area, and more are expected later today and tonight. Heavy rainfall is also expected from Texas into the Central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier may produce flash flooding in some areas. Flash flood watches are in effect for much of the region.

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Several inches of snow is expected form the Plains into the Upper Midwest over the next few days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

On the other side of the front, where much cooler weather is in place, rain is expected to change over to snow as low pressure rides along the front and into the Midwest. Winter weather advisories have already been posted for parts of the region. Snow is already falling in parts of Colorado this afternoon, and several inches may fall over the next 36-48 hours from western portions of Kansas and Nebraska into the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

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Some heavy rain is possible across our area on Thursday as a strong cold front approaches the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As the system moves eastward, it will spread some heavy rain and thunderstorms into our area on Thursday. We’re not expecting any severe weather, but some heavy downpours are possible, especially from western Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. Some localized flooding may result. Once this front pushes offshore, much cooler weather will settle in for the Friday and the weekend.

Winter’s Last Gasp?

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We’ve reached Patriots Day weekend, which is usually one of the truest signs that winter is over and Spring has finally started in New England. This year that will not be the case. In fact, this year, Patriots Day weekend is going to be absolutely miserable.

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In mid-April, high temperatures should normally be in the middle to upper 50s around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Don’t let today’s warmth fool you. Even though temperatures are in the 60s and even lower 70s away from the South Coast, big changes are coming, and not for the better. A backdoor cold front will drop down across the region late tonight and early Saturday, bringing much colder air back into the region. Temperatures are going to go slowly down through the 40s all day on Saturday and gusty northeast to east winds are going to make it feel even colder. By Saturday evening, temperatures will drop into the 30s, and they’ll likely stay there through most of Sunday. They may start to drift back up Sunday night and Monday, but it will still be on the chilly side. That’s the least of our problems.

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Temperatures on Sunday will be 15 to 25 degrees (or more) below normal. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

A large storm system is going to bring severe weather to the Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast today and tomorrow, while producing blizzard conditions in the Plains and Upper Midwest, with a significant ice storm expected in parts of the Great Lakes. That storm is going to slowly make progress eastward over the next few days, with the moisture from it likely arriving late Saturday. As we mentioned earlier, temperatures are going to be dropping into the 30s late on Saturday. If you combine that with incoming moisture, you get a giant mess.

Rain will develop late Saturday afternoon or evening across the region, but as temperatures continue to drop, some sleet will likely mix in, with freezing rain also a possibility, especially north and west of Boston where temperatures could even fall into the upper 20s Saturday night. Sleet and freezing rain will continue across much of the region for a good chunk of the day on Sunday, as temperatures will only rebound into the middle 30s at best for most of the area. The reason we’re expecting sleet (and freezing rain) and not snow, is that the colder air will all be at the lower levels of the atmosphere. It will actually be warmer aloft. We wouldn’t be surprised if the summit of Mount Washington is one of the warmest places in New England Sunday afternoon.

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This storm may drop quite a bit of sleet on the region Saturday night into Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Somewhat milder air will start to filter in Sunday night as low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. This will change everything back over to a cold rain. For once, a cold rain is actually good news, because it means we don’t have to worry about the sleet any more. However, this is bad news as we head into Marathon Monday. As that low heads off to the north and west of the region, it will bring a cold front towards the Northeast. As warmer air surges northward ahead of the front, it will help bring some heavy rain into the area. That warmer air will mainly be aloft, but some of it could reach the surface during the afternoon. In the morning though, when the race starts, and the Red Sox are scheduled to play, we’ll likely have periods of heavy rain, with temperatures only in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Not exactly baseball or running weather. Temperatures could get into the 50s or even low 60s in the afternoon, especially south of Boston, but we’ll still have the heavy rain to deal with. The cold front moves through late in the day, and drier air starts to filter in on Tuesday. Even then, a few showers are still possible as an upper-level low pressure system moves across the Northeast.

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The GFS forecast is not pretty for the next few days. Stay inside, watch some playoff hockey, and remember that warmer weather is coming eventually. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

So, is this it for winter? We’d like to say yes, but at this point, we can’t make that statement definitively. Longer-range models show below normal temperatures continuing into much of May. While it’s awfully tough to get wintry weather around here at this time of year, it’s not impossible. We have had heavy snow events in late April (1987), and early May (1977). As some of you may remember, in 2013, up to 3 feet of snow fell in parts of Northern New England and Upstate New York during Memorial Day weekend. So, we’d wait until at least mid-May before taking the flip-flops and shorts out of where ever you stored them for the winter.

 

Storm Update: Things Might Not Be So Bad

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Unlike the last storm, which we admittedly underestimated, this storm is likely not going to live up to expectations for parts of the region, mainly north and west of Boston.

As the storm starts to move in this afternoon and evening, there is a lot of dry air in place. Dewpoints are only in the upper teens and 20s across much of the region. So, as the moisture from the storm moves in, it’s moistening up the atmosphere slowly, but anything that falls from the clouds is evaporating before hitting the ground.

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Very dry air remains in place across the region this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Eventually, the moisture will overcome this drier air, but the storm is also tracking a little farther to the south than we were thinking yesterday. As a result, snowfall totals will be considerably lower north and west of Boston than our previous forecast. Of course, this also means that there could be a bit more snow than we were thinking south of Boston, especially across Cape Cod, though some rain could still mix in there, which would limit amounts a bit.. This scenario was first hinted at by the ECMWF model 2 days ago, and most meteorologists thought of it as an outlier, since most of the other model guidance was painting a snowier scenario. We tended to discount it as well, but in the back of our minds, we kept hearing a phrase that a noted meteorologist has repeated over and over to us “Ignore the Euro at your own peril.”

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Hour-by-hour forecast for the storm based on the HRRR model from 2pm Wednesday through 8am Thursday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

So, with that in mind, we are revising our forecast to be closer to what the European model is showing (but not exactly):

Southeastern Massachusetts/Cape Cod: 5-9″ (possibly less on the Outer Cape if rain mixes in)
I-95 Corridor (Boston/Providence): 4-7″
MetroWest: 3-5″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 2-4″
Southern NH (Nashua/Manchester): 1-3″

This will still be a fairly wet snow south of Boston, so keep that in mind when you go out to shovel it tonight or Thursday. Once the sun comes up, thanks to the higher sun angle, any additional accumulations are not expected on paved or treated surfaces. Everything should wind down and end completely by early Thursday afternoon.

9-km ECMWF USA Surface Mass & CT & RI Snowfall 36
Snowfall forecast from the ECMWF model through Thursday evening. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As this storm moves into Atlantic Canada, and upper-level low will settle into the Northeast for Friday and Saturday, keeping us cloudy and cool. An impulse riding around the system may bring some light snow and snow showers in on Saturday, but accumulations will likely be on the light side, if we get much at all.

Mother Nature Ignores the Start of Spring

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“Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.”

At 12:15 EDT this afternoon, the sun was directly over the Equator, marking the Vernal Equinox, or as it is more commonly known, the start of Astronomical Spring. Here in New England, astronomical seasons don’t have really have much influence on the weather, at least the start and end of those seasons. Take this week for example. Tomorrow is the first full day of spring, but we’re expecting another snowstorm. Yup, that’d be the fourth one this month.

There’s actually a storm passing well south of New England today, so in a sense, we were spared a bit. It’s producing some rain and snow across the Mid-Atlantic states and sending a veil of high clouds across New England, dimming the sunshine this afternoon. Another storm will quickly follow on Wednesday, thickening up the cloud cover. Let’s start out by saying that this storm will not be as bad as the ones we’ve had earlier this month. We’re not expecting blizzard conditions. Oh, we’ll still have a decent amount of snow, strong winds, and some coastal flooding issues, but not at the magnitude of the earlier storms.

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Forecast for the storm’s progression based on the High-Resolution version of the NAM model. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

We’ll start with the winds and coastal flooding. Tides are astronomically high again this week, so the biggest concern will be at high tide at northeast and north facing beaches, especially the high tides early Wednesday and Thursday morning, as well as Wednesday afternoon. A coastal flood watch is in effect for the early Thursday morning high tide across Plymouth County as well as the Cape and Islands. As for the winds, sustained winds of 20-30 mph are expected, especially along the coast, with gusts of 40-50 mph, perhaps as high as 60 mph across the Cape and Islands, Southeastern Massachusetts, and parts of Rhode Island. Combine that with heavy, wet snow (more on that in a moment), and yes, power outages become a concern once again.

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Wind gusts for 11pm Wednesday predicted by the High-Resolution NAM model Image provided by WeatherBell.

Now, for the part that most of you care about – snowfall. The snow should develop during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. While it’ll be snowing during the afternoon rush hour, it shouldn’t cause too many problems (the people on the roads, however, probably will). With the higher sun angle at this time of year (equivalent to mid-September), and only light snow expected during the daylight hours on Wednesday, accumulations will be fairly light, especially on paved surfaces. Once the sun sets, steadier snow will move in, with the bulk of the accumulating snow expected Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. While the accumulating snow will be all done Thursday morning, light snow and snow showers may linger into the afternoon. We also will likely be dealing with a rain/snow line. A change to rain seems likely across Cape Cod for a while Wednesday evening, with that changeover likely penetrating into parts of southeastern Massachusetts. The question is – how far? Right now, we don’t expect it to get past Route 44, if it even gets that far.

That brings us to the amounts. With temperatures close to freezing, this is going to be a heavy, wet snow, so keep that in mind when you go out to shovel or fire up the snowblower. Here’s what we’re thinking:

Cape Cod: 1-3″, highest totals on the Upper Cape
South Coast: 3-5″
South and East of I-95: 4-7″
Metro Boston/MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/North Shore: 5-9″
Southern NH (Nashua/Manchester)/NH Seacoast: 4-7″

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The snowfall forecast from the High-Resolution NAM model is closest to our thinking right now. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once this system pulls away, an upper-level low pressure area will slowly move across the Northeast, which may give us some additional snow showers on Friday and Saturday, but we’re not expecting much accumulation (if any), with those. Beyond that – right now, the models aren’t showing any big storms over the next 2 weeks, but that is always subject to change. Remember, just a couple of days ago, most of the TV talking heads told you that this storm was going to stay offshore and we didn’t have to worry about it. As for when we can expect some actual “Spring” weather – well, the pattern looks to remain chilly right into at least early April.

 

Storm Update: This Could Be Bad

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So, remember just 24 hours ago when we said that we weren’t buying all of the ridiculous numbers being floated out there because we expected the models to shift the storm a bit eastward? Yeah, the opposite happened.

Hey, we’re the first ones to admit when we are wr….wro…..wro….when our forecast starts going off the track. We wait until we’re fairly sure we’ve got a good forecast before we publish, because we want you to have the best info available. Well, in this case, that didn’t work out. Luckily, we still haven’t gotten into the storm, so we have time to fix things.

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Forecast for the storm based on the GFS model. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

The basics that we outlined last night still hold true. Low pressure will move up the East Coast and rapidly intensify, passing south and east of Cape Cod later Tuesday. Strong winds are likely, especially along the coast. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph inland and possibly 70 mph along the coast. We may have understated the coastal flood threat a bit, but still, any coastal flooding will be minor in nature and confined to right around high tide.

Even the timing is still close to what we were thinking last night. Precipitation should develop near or just after midnight, and quickly get heavy. Blizzard conditions are likely, mainly along the coastline, from daybreak through early afternoon. Snowfall should start to lighten up after midday, but likely doesn’t completely end until late evening or even close to midnight Tuesday night.

That brings us to the snowfall amounts. There are still some models that are showing amounts that border on ridiculous. As you should know by know, our forecasts, while filled with sarcasm and satire, try to be level-headed, not ridiculous. How much can you expect?

Outside of I-495: 6-12″
Merrimack Valley/Southern NH/NH Seacoast: 8-14″
Most of the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island: 12-18″

The “jackpot” is likely to be across portions of Plymouth County and onto Cape Cod, where some totals of 18 to perhaps 24″ are possible. The big question here is whether any rain mixes in. This is especially possibly across the Outer Cape and Nantucket. If there is any rain, that will knock accumulations down.

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The GFS model is still the closest to our current thinking for snowfall amounts. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once the storm moves out, an upper-level low pressure area may trigger additional snow showers on Wednesday and again Thursday (and possibly Friday too). Oh, and since you’re all sick of snowstorms by now, depending on which model you believe, we could have as many as 3 more between now and the end of March. We’ll worry about each of those as they become a threat (or don’t).