Winter Weather

Weekly Outlook: January 13-19, 2020

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We hope you enjoyed the warm weekend, because in case you forgot, it’s January. Don’t worry, Mother Nature will remind you as the week goes on.

Record highs were smashed across the Northeast again on Sunday, but a cold front moved through during the afternoon, ending the warmth. Temperatures will still be near to above normal for the next few days, but the 60s and 70s are gone. High pressure builds into Quebec today, but there will be plenty of clouds around thanks to northeast winds off of the ocean. In fact, we could see a few flurries or snow showers, especially along the coast from Plymouth County up to the New Hampshire Seacoast. Temperatures will be mainly in the 30s, so yes, you’ll need to find your winter clothes again. As the high slides off to the east, temperatures will start to moderate again on Tuesday, but a weak system will also be moving in. This system will produce a little light rain Tuesday night, maybe mixed with some snow from the Merrimack Valley into Southern New Hampshire.

The High Resolution NAM model shows the potential for coastal snow showers today, and then the system for late Tuesday as well. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

Behind that system we’ll have some clearing on Wednesday with mild temperatures, but clouds quickly come back late in the day ahead of yet another system. This system also doesn’t look like a big deal, but it could produce a little more in the way of precipitation late Wednesday night into Thursday, with a better chance for some light snow mainly north of the Mass Pike.

Once that system pulls away, gusty winds will usher much colder air into the region for Thursday night and Friday. You’ll be wishing for the 60s and 70s again, as temperatures will likely stay in the 20s on Friday, with wind chills in the single digits and teens.

Wind chils will start the day on Friday in the single numbers and won’t get that much higher in the afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Friday night, low pressure will be starting to move out of the Ohio Valley towards the East Coast, and it will likely impact us from Saturday into Sunday. Right now, most of the models have the system track very close to or right across southern New England, but the timing is still in question (along with many other aspects of this potential storm). It’s still 5-6 days away, so things can and will change, but obviously we’ll need to keep an eye on this. Right now, the models are showing the potential for snow, changing to rain at least south of the Mass Pike, possibly farther north. We’re not going to get into many more details than that at this point, but suffice to say, if you have plans on Saturday, keep an eye on the forecast, as the potential exists for a snowstorm, possibly a significant one. Behind the storm, windy and even colder weather settles in on Sunday, and remains in place for much of next week.

Temperatures look like they’ll be well below normal next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for some snow showers or flurries along the coast. High 34-41.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely in the evening, possibly mixed with snow from the Merrimack Valley into Southern New Hampshire, some partial clearing possible late at night. Evening low 31-38, then temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, but clouds start to return late in the day. High 42-49.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy and windy with a chance for showers during the morning, possibly some snow showers from southern New Hampshire into northern Massachusetts. High 38-45.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, and colder. High 21-28.

Saturday: Cloudy and windy with a chance of snow, possibly changing to rain, especially south of the Mass Pike. High 28-35 north of the Mass Pike, 36-43 south of the Mass Pike.

Sunday: Snow or snow showers ending early, then clouds give way to some afternoon sunny breaks, windy. High 27-34.

Weekly Outlook: December 30, 2019 – January 5, 2020

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Another year has come and gone, but before we get to New Year’s Eve, we’ve got quite a mess to deal with today.

A variety of Advisories and Warnings are in effect across the Northeast today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes today, with a frontal system extending eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This will keep us on the cold side, but warmer air will move in aloft. When you have warm air aloft, cold air below, and precipitation, you get sleet or freezing rain, depending on how thick the layers of warm and cold air are. For today, we’re looking at freezing rain across the higher elevations of Worcester County up into the Monadnocks, with a mix of sleet and some freezing rain from southern New Hampshire into the Merrimack Valley and interior portions of eastern Massachusetts. This will result in significant travel problems, not to mention the potential for tree and power line damage. For the rest of our area (mainly south and east of I-95), warmer air moving in off the ocean will keep temperatures above freezing, so it’ll be just another rainy, but chilly, Monday.

The potential still exists for some significant sleet accumulations from the Merrimack Valley into Southern New Hampshire today. Image provided by WeatherBell,

A secondary area of low pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline tonight, and pass across Cape Cod before moving into the Gulf of Maine on Tuesday. This should force the warmer air farther inland, with a change to plain rain for most of the area, though sleet and/or freezing rain will still be likely up into central New Hampshire. As that low moves into the Gulf of Maine on Tuesday, everything will start to wind down in the morning.

Freezing rain will likely cause problems from the Worcester Hills into the Monadnocks and also across the Berkshires today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As for New Year’s Eve, the original low pressure area from the Great Lakes will pass north of the region, dragging a cold front through. Although it will likely remain dry, a few snow showers or flurries can’t be ruled out during the evening. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy at night, with midnight temperatures generally in the 30s. An upper-level low will move across the region on New Year’s Day, so we’ll have some clouds, but probably not any flurries, though it will be seasonably chilly. High pressure then builds in for Thursday with sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

The next storm system moves into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. Oh great, another ice storm, right? Nope. This time, it looks milder (much milder on some models), so we’re looking at mainly rain, probably not a lot of it though. An early look at the weather for Foxborough Saturday evening (don’t get us started on the fact there will actually be a game this weekend), is for partly cloudy skies, light winds, and temperatures in the lower 40s. Drier and colder air settles in for Sunday.

Highs in the 50s on Saturday? The GFS thinks so, We’re not convinced yet. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Breezy with sleet and freezing rain across the interior, rain along the coast. Sleet accumulations of an inch or two are possible across the Merrimack Valley and southern Hampshire, while up to 1/2″ of ice accretion is possible across the higher elevations of the Worcester Hills and the Monadnocks. High 30-37.

Monday night: Precipitation changing to all rain most areas, except sleet and freezing rain continue across central New Hampshire. Temperatures will slowly rise overnight.

Tuesday: Rain tapers off and ends in the morning, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon. High 39-46.

New Year’s Eve: Partly cloudy, chance for a snow shower or flurry during the evening. Low 25-32.

New Year’s Day: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 34-41.

Thursday: Sunshine and just a few clouds. High 36-43.

Friday: Cloudy with some light rain or showers likely. High 40-47.

Saturday: A cloudy start, then becoming partly sunny. High 48-55.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 36-43.

Another Messy Monday

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As we head into the home stretch of 2019, it looks like the year is going to end with a wintry mess.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect across interior portions of New England and eastern New York. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The storm system that produced heavy snow in the Plains and strong to severe thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley on Saturday will head into the Great Lakes on Sunday, then just mill around in the Midwest for Monday and early Tuesday. Clouds will stream into our area later Sunday ahead of the system, but as is usually the case with a storm that far west, the warmer air that we usually find on the east side of a storm system won’t make it in here, at least at the surface (that becomes important later on).

Sunday will be a mild day (by late December standards) as high pressure moves out, but temperatures should drop below freezing during the evening. We’ll see precipitation start to break out before midnight across much of the area. While there will still be cold air in place at the surface, warmer air will be starting to move in aloft. So, we should see sleet and some freezing rain developing, with some snowflakes, mainly from central and southern New Hampshire northward. Some accumulations are possible, especially from the Seacoast up into the Lakes Region, but only a few inches at most before a change to sleet occurs. Along the South Coast, this will be mainly rain with temperatures above freezing.

The NAM model shows the progression of the storm system and how the precipitation changes from sleet to freezing rain, to rain across the region. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits,

With a frontal system stalled out south of New England, we’ll have generally east to northeast winds on Monday. This will allow parts of southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island (mainly south and east of Interstate 95), to warm above freezing as somewhat milder air moves in off the ocean. Across inland areas, it’ll be a much different story.

This graphic shows the difference in how you get snow vs sleet vs freezing rain. Image provided by NOAA.

Cold air will remain in place for most of the day on Monday and into Monday night. Meanwhile, a few thousand feet above the ground, warmer air will be moving in. This will mean sleet at first, but as that warmer air layer grows thicker, the sleet should transition over to freezing rain. When that transition occurs is still a bit of a question mark.

NAM model forecast for temperatures at 700mb (about 10000 feet) for midday Monday. Temperatures will be above freezing across most of our region that high up, melting any high-level snowflakes falling into that part of the atmosphere. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

Some models are showing the potential for significant amounts of sleet from interior eastern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire, with significant ice accretion from freezing rain across the Worcester Hills, Monadnocks, and the Berkshires. No matter what happens, travel will be very slippery across the interior on Monday,

The High-Resolution NAM model is forecasting a LOT of skeet across the interior. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Monday night, a secondary area of low pressure should develop south of Long Island, and it will head northeast, moving across Cape Cod early Tuesday, then into the Gulf of Maine. As it moves close to the area, it should help force the warm air farther inland, allowing temperatures to rise above freezing across most of the area. However, once it moves into the Gulf of Maine, colder air will settle in behind it, both at the surface and aloft, changing everything back to snow showers before the precipitation winds down Tuesday morning.

Significant ice accretion could result in major issues including tree and power line damage across the interior. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll update this forecast as well as a look at New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Messy Tuesday, Frigid Thursday

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The Winter Solstice is Saturday, but winter will certainly make it’s presence felt over the next few days.

The low pressure system that produced severe weather across the South on Monday will head northeastward, impacting our area on Tuesday. The storm will be moving fairly quickly, and it doesn’t have a lot of cold air to work with, so we’re not expecting a big snowstorm. That doesn’t mean it won’t cause any problems.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for most of the region. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Snow will develop around midnight across parts of Connecticut and Southern Rhode Island, gradually spreading northward across the rest of the region before daybreak. The snow should quickly change to rain after daybreak across the South Coast and Cape Cod. As warmer air moves in aloft, a change to sleet and freezing rain will start to take place across the interior, with plain rain along the coast as milder air moves in off the still relatively mild ocean. Right now, it looks like the mixing may get as far north as the Merrimack Valley during the afternoon. North of there, precipitation should stay all snow. The precipitation will lighten up during the afternoon, but won’t completely end until the evening or first part of the overnight.

The morning and evening commute will both be impacted by this storm, but the greater impacts will certainly be during the morning commute. Not only could icing be a problem, especially in parts of Connecticut and Rhode Island, we could be looking at a band of moderate to heavy snow along and south of the Mass Pike. With temperatures expected to drop below freezing at night, many roads could ice back up, so untreated surfaces could become slick, especially in areas that changed over to rain during the afternoon.

Icing could become a significant problem across parts of Connecticut and Rhode Island on Tuesday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

As for how much snow to expect, we haven’t changed our thinking much from our earlier forecast.

South Coast/Cape Cod: Less than 1″
Southeastern Massachusetts (including the I-95 corridor): 1-2″
MetroWest/North Shore: 1-3″
Merrimack Valley: 2-4″
Central + Southern New Hampshire/NH Seacoast: 3-6″

The High Resolution NAM model is probably closest to our expectations for snowfall. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Behind this system, we’ve got to pay attention to an arctic cold front that will move across the region late Wednesday. It could produce some snow showers or squalls as it moves through. These won’t impact everyone, but in places they do, visibility could rapidly drop, and a quick half an inch to an inch of snow could fall.

Wind chills will likely drop below zero across most of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels,com

Behind that front, some of the coldest air so far this season will settle in for Thursday. Wind chills will be below zero during the morning hours, and actual temperatures may not make it out of the teens during the afternoon. Friday will see temperatures start to moderate a bit, but it will still remain quite chilly, even by December standards.

Weekly Outlook: December 9-15, 2019

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Given a choice, would you prefer cold weather or warm weather? What about a choice between rain, snow, or dry weather? Well, you’re going to get ALL of these this week!

Temperatures could reach 60 across parts of the area on Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start the week with low pressure moving into the Great Lakes and then eventually up the St. Lawrence Valley. With low pressure passing to our north and west, we’ll be on the warm side, with rain expected, mainly in two waves. The first one will come in today, with rain developing this morning, and continuing into tonight, when it cold be locally heavy. The warm air should move in south of Boston fairly quickly, but it may take until tonight to get into the Merrimack Valley and southern New Hampshire.

Warm air comes in today, and is quickly pushed out by cold air late Tuesday into Wednesday. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll have a bit of a lull tomorrow morning, but a cold front will approach later in the day, with rain coming back ahead of that front. We’ll still be on the mild side, that is until the front comes through. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the front late Tuesday and Tuesday night but the precipitation may linger, so we will likely see rain changing to snow Tuesday night.

The NAM model shows the progression of the storm with 2 waves of rain followed by some snow. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

On Wednesday, a little disturbance will move across the region, bringing us some additional light snow, mainly in the morning. There’s still a bit of uncertainty with this, but plan on the morning commute being impacted. We’re probably only looking at a few inches, but all it really takes to screw up the morning commute is a few flakes at all. High pressure builds in late in the day and into Thursday with drier and much colder weather.

A few inches of snow could really mess up the Wednesday morning rush hour. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

By Friday, temperatures start to moderate again as the high slides offshore. It’ll still be chilly (it is December after all), but not quite as cold as Thursday. The weekend looks even milder once again, but that’s because we’ll have another storm system passing to our north and west, so we’re looking at another round of rain, possibly heavy once again.

Saturday could end up quite mild once again, but wet as well. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with periods of rain and showers. High 49-56.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times, tapering off late at night. Temperatures hold steady or possibly rise a few degrees.

Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy with showers redeveloping late in the day. High 53-60, but temperatures start to quickly drop from northwest to southeast during the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with rain changing to snow during the evening. Low 26-33.

Wednesday: Cloudy with light snow ending around midday. Skies clear out at night. Temperatures hold steady or drop a few degrees during the day.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, but cold. High 24-31.

Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 32-39.

Saturday: Cloudy, breezy, and milder with rain likely. High 46-53.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for a few showers. High 42-49.

Weekly Outlook: November 11-17, 2019

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Thank you to all that have served or continue to serve our nation. Image provided by the United States Army

Are you ready? Ready for Winter? It’s coming, and quickly. Better enjoy today, because after that, it’s going to get cold.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, but we’ll have plenty of clouds as a cold front begins to approach the region. That front will move through on Tuesday, with some rain likely ahead of it. Low pressure will develop along this front and move right across the region on Tuesday. Ahead of the low and the front, it will be somewhat mild, but once the front moves through in the afternoon, that’s when things start to happen.

NAM model forecast showing rain coming in ahead of the cold front, changing to snow before ending behind it. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Colder air comes surging in behind the front, and temperatures will quickly drop Tuesday afternoon. Rain will likely change over to sleet and snow from northwest to southeast. Now we’re not talking about a lot of snow, probably an inch or less in most spots, and mainly on grassy surfaces, but snow will be the least of the concerns. Gusty winds will help to dry out the roads, and ground temperatures remain fairly mild, but with temperatures dropping into the 20s by late Tuesday, we could see some ice developing, especially on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. So, if you’re going to be out and about Tuesday evening or night, use caution.

While there might be a pretty good snowstorm up north, around here, we’re not expecting much. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ve covered the snow potential, and the potential for slick roads, but here’s the biggest issue we’ll be dealing with – it’s going to be cold. When we say “cold”, we mean “COLD”. As in, record low temperatures Wednesday morning across most of the region. As in wind chills (another phrase most of you don’t like) in the single numbers (Fahrenheit, not Celsius). Yeah, it’s going to feel like January Tuesday night into Wednesday. Oh yeah, we forgot to mention that Wednesday may see highs in the 20s to lower 30s.

Any location that is circled is likely to set a record low temperatures Wednesday morning. Yeah, it’s going to be cold. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Winds will diminish for Thursday, but it will remain chilly. Temperatures should start to moderate a little on Friday as high pressure slides offshore. Of course, another cold front comes through Friday night and then we get cold again next weekend, but probably not quite as cold as Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will still be well below normal.

Wind chills will be in the single numbers when most of you wake up Wednesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible, mainly north of the Mass Pike. High 41-48 north and west of Boston, 49-56 south of Boston.

Monday night: Cloudy with showers developing late at night. Evening low 34-41 north and west of Boston, 42-49 south of Boston. Temperatures may rise after midnight

Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, changing to sleet and snow during the afternoon. Morning high 42-49 north and west of Boston, 50-57 south of Boston, then temperatures quickly drop in the afternoon.

GFS forecast for temperatures starting at midnight tonight and ending at 7am Wednesday. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Tuesday night: Any lingering snow showers end in the evening, then clearing, breezy, and colder. Low 13-20.

Wednesday: Sunny, breezy, and cold. High 25-32.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun, a few flurries are possible at night. High 34-41.

Friday: Sunshine to start, then clouds move in during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 31-38.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 37-44.

Boston May Need an Ark, Bismarck Needs a Plow

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Two developing storm systems – one off the East Coast and one in Plains, will both wreak havoc in the next few days, but for very different reasons.

Two low pressure areas are developing off the East Coast early this morning. The northern system is the stronger of the two, but the southern one is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. It has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or subtropical storm later today. Whether it does or not, these two low pressure areas will eventually merge and become a rather strong non-tropical system over the next 24 hours. There is very little in the way of steering currents right now, so the system will just meander around off the coast until Saturday.

Low pressure won’t be in a hurry to go anywhere off the East Coast for the next few days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

As the system drifts northward, it will produce gusty winds along the coast, especially in New England. Tides are astronomically low at the moment, but will be rising later this week, so coastal flooding, while not a major concern, will still be possible in some locations. A coastal flood watch has been issued for parts of Plymouth County, Cape Cod, and Martha’s Vineyard. Rough seas will also be a large concern for marine interests, with Storm Warnings now in effect offshore. However, the biggest concern and also the biggest question mark right now is heavy rainfall.

Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible across much of Southern New England. Yeah, that blows. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While the storm will likely spread some heavy rainfall into New England, there is still plenty of uncertainty as to how far north the heavy rain gets, as well as how much rain actually falls. Some of the models are producing extremely heavy rainfall, with totals in excess of 10″ in southeastern Massachusetts! While we aren’t buying the extreme totals, the fact that most of the models are showing this potential means that some very heavy rain is likely, especially south of Boston, where a Flood Watch has been issued.

That’s a lot of water coming out of the sky over the next 3 days. Some models have even more than this! Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thanks to some dry weather over the past couple of months, we shouldn’t have to worry about any flash flooding, though downpours will result in ponding of water on roadways, and some locations normally prone to flooding in heavy rain will also have problems. However, since we’re expecting a prolonged period of heavy rain, flooding is still a possibility in some locations, other than the ones we just mentioned, especially some of the smaller streams and rivers. Strong winds will also start to take some of the leaves off of trees, which may clog up storm drains, resulting in some flooding as well.

Recent dryness means that flash flooding is not likely in New England with this storm. Image provided the the Northeast River Forecast Center.

While all this is taking place off the East Coast, some very cold air will settle into the Rockies and Plains states as low pressure starts to develop across the Central Plains. Record lows are likely to be set in numerous locations over the next few mornings across the region. This system will head north-northeastward while strengthening. The system isn’t expected to become that strong, but with a large high pressure area building in behind it, it will produce some strong winds. It will also draw warm and moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. As this air runs into the much colder air on the backside of the storm, the first significant snowstorm of the season is expected to develop across the Northern Plains.

Winter Storm Watches and warnings have been posted from parts of Idaho Montana, and Wyoming into parts of northern Nebraska and the Dakotas as well as northwestern Minnesota. across Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, snowfall totals of 6-12 inches are possible, with some heavier amounts in the higher elevations. The biggest issues are expected across the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota.

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph or more are expected across the Northern Plains. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The precipitation will start as rain across this area later today, but strong northerly winds will usher much colder weather in, changing the rain to snow from west to east on Thursday. Like its East Coast counterpart, this storm won’t move at a rapid pace, so snow, possibly heavy at times will continue across this area into early Saturday, with snow showers lingering into Sunday.

This storm also has some questions with it’s precipitation shield. While heavy snow is likely across a large area, how much falls and where the heaviest snow will fall is still a question. Right now, it looks like the heaviest snow will fall from central South Dakota into central and eastern North Dakota, but that still could change. As for amounts, many areas could see more than a foot, with totals in excess of 2 feet possible in some areas. The snow will be accompanied by winds gusting to 40-50 mph, resulting in blizzard conditions, especially late Thursday into Friday.

Welcome to winter! Snowfall totals of 1-2 feet or more are possible across the Dakotas. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

While snow in October is not unusual across this region, snowfall amounts of this magnitude this early in the year are extraordinarily rare. In Grand Forks, ND, the largest October snowstorm on record occurred October 24-26, 2001, and it dropped 10.9″ on the city. In Fargo, ND, the largest October snowstorm on record is only 8.1″ on October 30-31, 1951. For Pierre, SD, the October snowstorm of record occurred October 30-31, 1943, and it only produce 7.2″ of snow. Current model forecasts are forecasting amounts that are 3-4 times the records. These model forecasts are likely too high, but it seems likely that many of these October records are going to be obliterated in the next few days. Hopefully, this is not a sign of what’s to come this winter.

Weekly Outlook: March 4-10, 2019

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The first full week of March is shaping up to be a wintry one, mainly in the temperature department, but a little in the precipitation department as well.

The snow will be ending across the region this morning as our storm system pulls away, with some clearing this afternoon. Temperatures may even get a tad mild, allowing for some melting to take place. However, we’re going to drop back below freezing tonight, so anything that melted with ice back up. If you’re heading out this evening, watch out for slippery conditions on untreated surfaces.

Temperatures could get into the middle to upper 30s this afternoon, allowing some of the fresh snow to melt. Image provided by WeatherBell.

After that, a rather cold airmass will settle into the region for Tuesday through Thursday. While temperatures won’t be as extreme as in the Plains states, we’re still looking at temperatures that are 10-20 degrees below normal, especially Wednesday and Thursday. A couple of upper-level disturbances will also be moving through the region, which may produce a few snow showers at times, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees below normal during the middle of the week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

By Friday, high pressure will move offshore and temperatures will start to moderate. That just means it won’t be quite as cold, but temperatures will still be below normal. The weekend is where things get complicated.

It looks like we’re going to have 2 systems impact the area, a weak one on Saturday, and a stronger one on Saturday. Given that these are both several days away, nothing is set in stone at this point. The first system passes south of New England on Saturday. There is at least one model that has it pass too far south to have any impact on us, but most bring it close enough to spread in some light precipitation. Right now, it looks likely mainly some light snow, but it could be some rain as well, especially along the south coast.

The stronger storm comes in on Sunday. This one looks like it will produce some rain across the area. However, some models are showing temperatures below freezing at the start, which means we’d be looking at yet another situation where we have snow to sleet or freezing rain inland and rain along the coast. Again, this is a week away, so trying to nail down details at this point is a futile exercise. Just be aware that next Sunday could be messy, especially north and west of Boston.

Daylight Saving Time starts at 2am Sunday. Sunset next Sunday evening will be at approximately 6:45pm. Image provided by the National Weather Service.

Monday: Snow (rain on the Cape) ending early, some sunny breaks develop in the afternoon. High 33-40.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 9-16.

Tuesday: Morning sunshine, afternoon clouds, slight chance for a snow flurry. High 24-31.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 10-17.

Wednesday: A sunny start, then clouding up again, breezy. A snow shower is possible. High 19-26.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, with a few afternoon snow showers possible. High 20-27.

Friday: Plenty of clouds. Light snow or rain developing at night. High 28-35.

Saturday: Cloudy with some snow or rain showers possible in the morning. High 31-38.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of rain, possibly some snow or a wintry mix across the interior. High 34-41.

Sunday Night Special or Monday Morning Madness?

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As promised, the second storm in our one-two punch is heading this way. While most of the snow is expected while you’re asleep Sunday night, it could have a big impact on your Monday morning commute.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for most of the Northeast as of Sunday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure is hanging on this morning, providing us with sunshine, but clouds will quickly move in this afternoon as low pressure starts to move towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline, passing south of New England Monday morning. This storm will be a bit stronger than the one we had yesterday, and also have a little more moisture to work with, but will be moving fairly quickly, limiting the amount of time it spends in the region. One thing working in its favor is that most of the snow will fall at night. We’re at the time of year where the sun angle is high enough that snowfall during the daytime has a hard time sticking on pavement. At night, that’s not an issue.

The high-resolution NAM model shows the snow moving in this evening, becoming heavy overnight, and ending in the morning, with any rain confined to the south coast. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Snow will move in this evening, likely in the 7-10pm time frame, and will continue through the overnight hours. It may be heavy at times, especially between about 1 and 5am. A change to rain is expected for Cape Cod and the South Coast, but likely won’t advance past Route 44. Everything should wind down and end around 6-8am. That’s also the time of the morning commute. Road crews should have plenty of time to work on getting the roads cleared, but given past experience, and that people will likely leave early since it’ll still be snowing, we expect many roads to still be in awful shape. Give your self a lot of extra time in the morning. We also expect many school districts to cancel classes for Monday.

Snowfall is running about 10-20 inches below normal across the area this winter. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

It’s been a down year for snowfall, running 10-20 inches below normal across the area, but this storm will put a dent in those departure numbers. How much are we looking at?

Cape Cod/South Coast/Southern RI: 2-5″
The rest of the region: 4-8″ with isolated 10″ totals possible, especially from northern RI into the South Shore.

The high-resolution NAM has had a great winter for snowfall predictions, and we’re not straying from it again. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Things look to quiet down and get colder behind this storm, but a pattern change to milder weather could be coming as we head towards mid-March. We’ll have more details on at least the next week in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Not One, But Two Storms on the Way

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Back in our Weekly Outlook on Monday, we warned you that even though Meteorological Winter ends on February 28, that March can still be a wintry month. Well, today is March 1, and we’re looking at two snowstorms in the first four days of the month.

You can see that this is a fairly fast-moving storm. In by daybreak Saturday, out before dinnertime. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Technically, there’s actually 3 storms, as the first one is passing south of the region this morning. It brought in some clouds, and a few stray flakes across southeastern Massachusetts, but otherwise, had little impact on us. The first storm we need to pay attention to is moving across the central Appalachians this afternoon. It will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, then pass south of New England on Saturday. A few days ago, it looked like this storm would pass harmlessly to our south while a a system to the north brought in some snow or rain later on Saturday. Well, this storm became the more dominant of the two, and will pass closer to us than originally thought.

Snow will develop Saturday morning, maybe before daybreak south of Boston. It may even start as some sleet or rain across Cape Cod before changing to snow It will snow steadily during the morning hours, and then taper off and end during the afternoon, possibly lingering along the coast until evening. Despite the hype from some of the media, this will not be a big storm. Oh sure, it’ll be disruptive to your Saturday morning/afternoon plans, but it’s not a major storm.

So, the big question – how much?

Central NH/Southern ME (Concord/Portland) – Less than 1″
Southern NH/Seacoast/Cape Cod (Manchester/Nashua/Portsmouth) – 1-2″
Merrimack Valley – 2-4″
Metro Boston/MetroWest/Southeastern MA/ Rhode Island – 3-6″

Would be we shocked if a few spots, especially south of Boston, pick up 7 or 8 inches? Nope, not at all. This won’t be the fluffy snow we had a few days ago, so it won’t pile up as quickly.

We’ve stuck with the high-resolution NAM for most of the winter and it’s served us well, so we’re going to do it again. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

OK, so the snow ends Saturday afternoon/evening, and we’re all set, right? Nope – the next storm, follows fairly quickly for Sunday night and Monday. This one looks a little strong, and will pass a little closer. This will allow for the rain/snow line to penetrate a little farther into southeastern Massachusetts. However, with it being a stronger storm, it will have more moisture to work with, and that means more snow. There’s still many details that need to be worked out, and some things will depend on what the first storm does, so we’re not going to go into too much detail yet. We’ll have another blog post Sunday morning focused on that storm. But, there are several models showing the potential for up to, or even more than a foot of snow in spots from that storm.

The NAM model indicates that we could get a pretty good wallop early Monday. We’ll see if things stay that way over the next day or two. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

After that storm goes by, it looks cold and dry for a few days. But let’s take it one storm at a time for now. Look for an update from us Sunday morning.