Weekly Outlook: March 20-26, 2017

Astronomical spring starts today at 6:29am, and for part of this week, it will actually feel like Spring. Of course, that means part of the week won’t feel like Spring. Sorry to disappoint you, but the parts that don’t feel like Spring won’t feel like Summer. Yup, that means they’ll feel like Winter. It is still March after all.

The week will start off with low pressure continuing to pull away from the area and high pressure building in. That means sunshine, diminishing winds and mild temperatures. A weak front moves through tonight, bringing some clouds with it, and little more than that. Tuesday will have plenty of clouds and some sunny breaks, but it will be a few degrees warmer than Monday. We’re heading in the right direction, right? Wrong. A stronger cold front moves through Tuesday night, with a few snow showers possible. Skies quickly clear out behind it giving us plenty of sunshine on Wednesday, but it will be windy and much colder. Possibly even cold enough to set a few records. Yeah, that’s cold. High pressure builds in later Wednesday into Thursday with sunshine, diminishing winds. We start to warm up on Friday as a warm front approaches, possibly bringing a few showers with it. Whether that warm front actually makes it through or not is still not set in stone.

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Thursday morning will be chilly, with some record lows possible in the Northeast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

This brings us to next weekend. This is where things get complicated. If the warm front moves through, Temperatures on Saturday could spike into the 60s in many areas, especially if we get any sunshine. If the front doesn’t come through, we might stay in the 40s all day. For now, we’ll stay right in the middle, with upper 40s to middle 50s, but please realize that temperatures could be considerably warmer or colder than what we are forecasting at the moment. Regardless of whether the warm front moves through, a cold front will drop southward across the region later on Saturday, bringing in some showers and cooler conditions, especially if we get into the warm air. That front will stall out south of New England on Sunday while a wave of low pressure moves along it. Exactly how quickly that wave moves along the front and how far south the front stalls are key to the forecast. Right now, it looks to be a little too far south and moving a little too quickly, which means that most of the precipitation moves out before the colder air settles in. That means the rain may end as some snow on Sunday, with only a little accumulation in some spots. However, there are some models that have the front stall a little closer to the South Coast, and the wave moves through a little slower. The result is a better chance of some accumulating snow later Sunday into Monday, and for at least one model, a lot more accumulating snow. For now, we’re leaning towards the solution with little to no snow, but the potential is there for more snow across the area. If anything does materialize, we’ll let you know later in the week. For now, don’t worry about changing any plans, but just keep an eye on the forecast on the off-chance that this does become a problem.

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A few models are showing the potential for highs in the 60s on Saturday. Not all of them show this though. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with diminishing winds. Clouds start to move in late in the day. High 44-51.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 47-54.

Tuesday night: Slight chance for a rain or snow shower, then clearing skies and windy. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 30-37.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, still breezy and cold. High 29-36.

Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy, breezy, and milder with a chance of showers. High 40-47.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for a few showers. High 48-55.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for some snow or rain showers, especially along the South Coast. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: March 13-19, 2017

Spring is almost here. Just keep reminding yourself of that. Red Sox Opening Day is 3 weeks from today. Marathon Monday is 5 weeks from today. Before you know it, we’ll be walking around in shorts and enjoying warm weather. Got those thoughts in your head now? Good, because this week will feel like the middle of winter. In case you haven’t heard and thanks to the relentless TV and internet hype, everyone has heard, the “Storm of the Century of the Week” is going to paralyze the region for the next 6 weeks. OK, we got caught up in the hype for a second. Seriously though, we’ve got ourselves a significant snowstorm heading our way for Tuesday.

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GFS model forecast for the progression of the storm from Monday evening through Wednesday evening. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

The week starts off with the proverbial “calm before the storm” on Monday, as high pressure keeps us dry and chilly. Low pressure will be moving across the Ohio Valley while a second area of low pressure starts to take shape off the Southeast coast. As the Ohio Valley system weakens, it will transfer its energy to the coastal storm, and then things really start to happen.

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It’s gonna blow on Tuesday. The wind that is. NAM model forecast for wind gusts Tuesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The low will move up the coastline Monday night into Tuesday and rapidly strengthen. Snow will break out across the region towards daybreak Tuesday, and will fall heavy at times from Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening. When we say heavy, we mean HEAVY, as in 2-3 inches per hour at times. The snow will be accompanied by winds gusting to 40-50 mph at times, even higher near the coast, and especially across Cape Cod. This may create blizzard conditions at times. If you’ve got plans for Tuesday, either get there by daybreak, or wait until evening to get there, because driving won’t be fun during the daytime hours, and could be quite hazardous. The good news is that the storm will be moving relatively quickly, so the snow will taper off in the evening, and end at night. The other potential good news is that the snow will likely change to rain for a time across Cape Cod. That changeover could make it into southeastern Massachusetts as well, but how far inland is still a big question. Obviously, that will have a big impact on snowfall totals.

So, how much snow are we looking at? You’ve probably heard the apocalyptic forecasts out there of 1-2 feet, or 15-30 inches, or some other crazy ranges. The fact is, with a storm moving as quickly as this one is (it’s only going to snow for about 12-15 hours), it’s tough to get amounts that high. Our preliminary numbers are:

Cape Cod: 3-6″ on the Outer Cape and Islands, 5-10″ closer to the Canal
SE Mass: 6-12″ where it mixes with rain, 10-16″ where it doesn’t.
Southern NH/ME: 10-16″
Eastern/Central Mass: 12-18″, with some isolated heavier amounts.

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GFS model forecast for snowfall through Wednesday evening, This model most closely matches our thinking for snowfall right now. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Things will slowly improve on Wednesday, but with an upper-level low moving across the region, we can expect some occasional snow showers, and winds will remain quite gusty as the storm gets cranked up over Atlantic Canada. High pressure starts to build in on Thursday, but it will likely be another blustery and cold day. For the holiday on Friday (it is Evacuation Day after all), it’ll be another sunny and chilly day, but winds will start to diminish as high pressure continues to build into the region. Clouds return on Saturday, then a weak cold front moves through Saturday night, bringing some snow showers in. An upper-level low may hang around into Sunday, possibly producing more snow showers.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine to start, clouds increase during the afternoon. High 26-33.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy, snow developing towards daybreak. Low 16-23.

Tuesday: Hazy, hot and humid. Windy with snow, heavy at times. High 26-33, except 33-40 across Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Snow tapers off and ends, winds gradually diminish. Low 15-22.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a few snow showers possible. High 24-31.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, still breezy. High 23-30.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 28-35.

Saturday: Sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. Chance for light snow or snow showers at night. High 30-37.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a few snow showers possible. High 31-38.

We will have an update on the storm Monday afternoon. Hopefully, things will be a little clearer by then. Remember, spring is just around the corner. If you keep telling yourself that, you might even start to believe it.

 

Weekly Outlook: March 6-12, 2017

The past few days have certainly been a reality check, haven’t they? It’s been cold, even by March standards. Don’t worry, the cold weather will be replaced by mild conditions for the next few days, especially at mid-week. But wait, what’s that lurking for the end of the week? Not one, but two potential chances at snow?  Remember, it is still March.

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It’s rather chilly out there early this morning with wind chills in the single numbers. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The week starts off with high pressure moving offshore, giving us sunshine and a chilly start, but temperatures will rebound nicely in the afternoon. Clouds will start to move in late in the day as a warm front starts to approach the region. With clouds in place tonight, it won’t be as chilly as the last few nights. Showers will move in Tuesday afternoon, and continue into Tuesday night, ending Wednesday morning when a cold front crosses the region. Despite the front, Wednesday will still be mild, with sunshine developing in the afternoon.High pressure builds back in on Thursday with windy and colder conditions, setting the stage for Friday and the weekend.

First, we start with Friday. Low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes and heads eastward, passing south of the region. The latest indications are that it may pass too far south to have too much of an impact on us, but we’ve still got plenty of time for the exact track to be worked out. Regardless, we’re not looking at a major storm here, as it will be moving relatively quickly, and not have a lot of moisture to work with. However, a few inches of snow would be just enough to screw up the Friday afternoon commute. Then again, three snowflakes is enough to screw up the Friday afternoon commute. High pressure builds in behind the system, but another one quickly follows from the Plains states. This one looks to impact the region late Saturday night into Sunday. Unlike the first one, it will be a little stronger, a little slower, and have a little more moisture to work with. It will also be a little farther to the south, increasing the chances that it stays to the south and has even less of an impact on parts of the region. However, that also means it could have more of an impact the farther south you go. Right now, the models are showing this storm with the potential to be a significant storm system….for the Mid-Atlantic states. Since there’s still plenty of uncertainty with both of these storms, but especially the second one, we’ll just have to keep an eye on them, and update you during the week if it looks like either of them could cause us some problems.

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One model wants to bury us with snow on Sunday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
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Another model says we miss the storm completely and it hits Virginia and North Carolina instead. Image provided by Pivotal Weather

 

Monday: A sunny and chilly start, then clouds start to filter in during the afternoon. High 37-44.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 24-31.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon.High 44-51.

Tuesday night: Scattered showers. Low 39-46 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Showers ending in the morning, some sunshine develops in the afternoon. Becoming breezy. High 52-59.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 35-42.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of light snow. High 36-43.

Saturday: Morning sunshine, then clouds return. Snow possible at night. High 24-31.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. High 24-31.

Wait, there might be another strong storm towards the middle of next week too? We’ll worry about that one next week.

Weekly Outlook: February 27-March 5, 2017

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Please remain seated until the ride has come to a complete stop. Image provided by Coastergallery.com

 

Sure, it felt warm enough to go to an amusement park at the end of last week, and it will again in a few days. But, much like the rollercoaster above, things will go downhill too.

The week starts off with us going up the incline, as temperatures slowly rise over the next few days. While today will be sunny, thanks to high pressure, clouds will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday as a storm system approaches from the west. A few showers are possible Tuesday morning, but there’s a better chance Tuesday night into Wednesday as a warm front crosses the region. A cold front moves through Thursday morning, which means we start the downhill part of the ride at that point. This is where some of you will start screaming, because even though the rain will end and the sun will return, it will be windy and colder, with temperatures dropping all day. But wait, the thrills don’t end there! An Alberta Clipper comes through the region on Friday, bringing us some light snow (some of you are probably screaming again right now). This isn’t set in stone just yet, as some models have the storm staying just to our south, so we’ll need to keep an eye on this as the week goes on. High pressure builds in for the weekend, with chilly temperatures expected on Saturday. We start the next uphill climb on Sunday as temperatures start to head back up once again.

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Record highs again on Wednesday? Certainly looks like a possibility. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy. High 48-55.

Monday night: Increasing clouds, chance for a few showers towards daybreak. Low 30-37.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, a few showers are possible in the morning. High 49-56.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers likely. Low 39-46.

Wednesday: Breezy with mild with showers likely, maybe even a thunderstorm. High 58-65.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 45-52 early, then temperatures drop throughout the day.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow. High 31-38.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy. High 26-33.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 42-49.

Weekly Outlook: February 20-26, 2017

After a couple of warm days, those rapid-fire snowstorms sure seem like they happened awhile ago, right? OK, so you still can’t see your lawn, but the good news is, you probably will within a few days. That’s right, the warm weather will continue and there’s no snow in the picture.

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Another sure sign that spring is just around the corner. Before you know it, you’ll see pictures of David Price throwing at Fenway, not Fenway South. Image provided by Redsox.com

 

The week starts off with high pressure keeping us dry for Monday and Tuesday. Monday will be cooler than the weekend was, but temperatures will still be right around or maybe a little above where they should be for mid-to-late February. We’ll start to warm up on Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore, but a weak system may bring in some showers Tuesday night. Then it turns warmer again. Wednesday should see highs in the 50s, and we may even make a run at 60 on Thursday, with some record highs possible. A weak cold front moves through late Thursday, but behind it, temperatures should remain quite mild for Friday and Saturday, though Saturday is also looking wet, as a storm system moves into the Great Lakes. That storm drags a cold front through Saturday night, and Sunday will be windy and colder. Of course, when we say “colder”, we mean,”right about where we should be in late February.”

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Thursday is looking quite mild with some record highs possible. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 35-42.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Morning sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with scattered showers. Evening low 28-35, then temperatures rise overnight.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks. High 47-54.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine. High 54-61.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. Showers likely at night. High 48-55.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. High 50-57.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy, and cooler. High 38-45.

Just because this week is going to be warm, doesn’t mean that winter is over. We’ve had some sizable snowstorms around here in March and April, and even on rare occasions into May. There are some indications that it may turn cooler again as we head into early March.

(Did we mention that Red Sox Opening Day is 6 weeks from today?)

Weekly Outlook: February 6-12, 2017

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All is right in the world again. Image provided by Associated Press.

Well, looks like there’s going to be yet another parade in the City of Boston. It also looks like Mayor Marty Walsh didn’t consult with any meteorologists before announcing it, because the weather on Tuesday at 11am doesn’t look pretty at all. But Tuesday’s not the only day we need to worry about, there’s also Thursday (which could be a bigger threat) along with Saturday and Sunday. So, let’s get right to it.

The week starts off with high pressure on Monday, giving us some sunshine, but cooler temperatures. By Tuesday, low pressure starts heading into the Great Lakes, with a warm front extending eastward. As is typical of this time of year, the warm front will have a hard time moving northward, which will create a mess across inland areas, as cold air remains trapped at the surface while warmer air moves in aloft.From Boston southward, this will be mainly a rain storm, with some snow possible at the start Tuesday morning. Inland though, especially north and west of 495, it’ll be a much different story. Accumulating snow is likely, which a change to sleet and freezing rain Tuesday evening, The wintry mix may continue through much of the overnight, especially across southern NH, before the warmer air finally moves in Wednesday morning, allowing a change to plain rain before it ends around midday. We’re not looking at a lot snow, mainly 1-3″ in most spots, maybe a little more into southern NH, but the sleet and freezing rain could make for some slippery travel Tuesday night. If you’re heading in for the parade, expect some snow changing to rain, gusty easterly winds, and temperatures in the middle 30s.

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Snowfall forecast through Wednesday afternoon from the NAM model. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once that storm moves out, we turn our eyes to the south for Thursday. Most of the models show a storm system moving off the Southeast coast and heading northeastward. Most of the models also have it passing close enough to spread some snow into at least southern New England. The question is, how close does it get? That could mean the difference between a few inches from Boston southward (as some models show), , 3-6″ across most of eastern New England as another model shows, or a widespread 6-12″ across the entire region, as another model is currently showing. For now, we’re going to lean towards the lighter side, but we’ll have to keep a close eye on the models for the next few days to see which way they are trending. As usual, if it looks like a threat, we’ll write another post about it.

Once that system goes by, then high pressure builds in for Friday with much colder conditions, but an Alberta Clipper will head our way for Saturday. This will bring in some light snow, but shouldn’t be a big storm. Another system quickly moves out of the Great Lakes behind that one for Sunday, but this one looks warmer, with more rain than snow. However, it’s nearly a week away, so a lot can and will change, and we’ll need to keep an eye on this one too.

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Sick of winter already? Today is Red Sox Truck Day! Spring training isn’t far behind. Image provided by Boston Herald.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine to start, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 28-35.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy, some flurries or freezing drizzle are possible. Low 21-28 in the evening, then temperatures hold steady or slowly rise overnight.

Tuesday: Snow developing, quickly changing to rain from Boston southward, gradually changing to a mix of sleet and freezing rain north and west of Boston late in the day. High 29-36 north and west of I-95, 36-43 south and east of I-95.

Tuesday night: Freezing rain continues across southern NH, changing to plain rain close to daybreak, elsewhere, light rain is expected overnight. Temperatures slowly rise across the region.

Wednesday: Showers ending around midday, otherwise remaining mostly cloudy. High 41-48 north and west of I-95, 48-55 south and east of I-95.

Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. High 26-33.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few snow showers. High 18-25.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance for some light snow, possibly changing to rain across Cape Cod and the South Coast. High 30-37.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 32-39.

Weekly Outlook: January 30- February 5, 2017

So, who’s ready for more winter weather?

That’s what we thought. Well, you’re out of luck, because not only is it going to turn colder this week, it’s going to snow too! Control your enthusiasm everyone – it’s not going to snow a lot.

The week starts off with a weak storm system passing to our south today. It may produce some snow showers along the South Coast and across the Cape and the Islands, with little accumulation expected. For the rest of us, it’ll just be a cloudy day. It’ll clear out tonight, and turn colder, but clouds quickly come back Tuesday morning as an Alberta Clipper (more likely a Saskatchewan Screamer and maybe even a Manitoba Mover) quickly heads towards the region. Some light snow will develop a little after dinner time, and continue overnight, likely changing to rain south of Boston. It all winds down before midday on Wednesday, with most of us getting an inch or two. Not a big deal, right? A few more snow showers are possible that afternoon as an upper-level disturbance moves through, but then high pressure builds in for the rest of the week and into the weekend with sunshine along with breezy and colder conditions. As we get to later Sunday (around the time the Patriots should be hoisting Lombardi Trophy #5) some more snow is possible as the next storm system starts to approach the region. That one could bring us some more snow into Monday, but we’ll worry about that one later in the week.

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Most of us will only see an inch or two (maybe three) from the system Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks at times. High 31-38.

Monday night: Clearing skies. Low 12-19.

Tuesday: Clouds return by midday, snow developing towards evening.High 26-33.

Tuesday night: Light snow likely, changing to rain south of Boston. Low 22-29 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Rain changes back to snow in the morning, ending around midday. Some sunny breaks may develop late in the day. Becoming breezy. High 34-41.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 29-36.

Friday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. High 25-32.

Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 24-31.

Sunday: Becoming cloudy, chance of snow late in the day. High 27-34.

Super Bowl Forecast: Expect the roof to be closed with some showers possible, and outdoor temperatures around 70 at game time. Inside? Patriots 34 Falcons 24

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Couldn’t have said it better myself. Image provided by NESN.com

Weekly Outlook January 23-29, 2017

Another week has arrived but just like last week, we’re starting off with a messy storm. Unlike last week, this one should go over to rain in most spots, and the rain could be quite heavy as we get into Monday night and early Tuesday.

The storm system that brought all the severe weather to the Deep South and the Southeast over the past few days will move into the Appalachians today while a secondary low pressure area starts to take shape off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This secondary low will quickly become the dominant storm as it intensifies while moving north-northeastward, passing south and east of Cape Cod on Tuesday. This will be mainly a rain storm from Boston southward, but a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain is likely north and west of Boston for a while on Monday. Eventually, warmer air moves in by early Tuesday morning, changing everything over to plain rain. The rain may be heavy early Tuesday, and as a result, Flood Watches have been posted for parts of Southern New England. Some areas could see 2-3 inches of rain, possibly even more than that. In addition, we’re looking at strong winds with this storm, especially close to the coastline. High Wind Warnings are up, with some gusts of 50-60 mph or more possible, especially across Cape Cod.

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A lot of rain is expected between now and Wednesday morning. This will help put a dent in the drought. Image provided by WeatherBell,.

 

Once this system moves by, things dry out a bit on Wednesday, but another cold front brings in more showers on Thursday. After that, high pressure builds in for the end of the week and the weekend, with more seasonable (read: colder) conditions settling in.

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The heaviest snow with the current storm will stay well to our north and west, and mainly at the higher elevations. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with some occasional rain or snow showers, drizzle, and maybe a little sleet, all becoming a steadier rain (light snow well north and west of Boston) by late in the day. High 31-38.

Monday night: Windy with any remaining wintry mix becoming rain across the region. Rain may be heavy at times, mainly across eastern Massachusetts, and especially south of Boston and across Cape Cod. Temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Tuesday: Rain tapers off to showers and winds gradually diminish across the region. High 34-41 north and west of Boston, 42-49 south and east, with some spots across Cape Cod possibly breaking into the 50s.

Tuesday night: Showers gradually ending from west to east. Low 30-37.

Wednesday: Morning clouds give way to partly to mostly sunny skies by afternoon. High 40-47.

Thursday:Mostly cloudy and becoming breezy with scattered showers, mainly early in the day. High 44-51.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a few snow showers. High 34-41.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 32-39.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 31-38.

Wintry Mess Tonight and Wednesday?

Another storm system is set to move into the region later today and into Wednesday. While this one will produce a wintry mess across parts of the area, for the majority of us, it won’t be a big deal.

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Current surface map as of 10am EST Tuesday. Image provided by NOAA.

 

A low pressure system is currently moving into Michigan. This is the same system that brought heavy snow to the central and southern Rockies and a significant ice storm to the central and southern Plains and parts of the Mississippi valley over the past few days. This storm will head towards the eastern Great Lakes this evening and start to weaken, while at the same time, a secondary area of low pressure will develop south of New England.

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NAM Model forecast for the next 48 hours across the Northeast. This model is closest to our thinking for this storm. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Along and south of the Mass Pike, this is mainly a rain storm. Rain will develop around dinner time this evening, might be heavy overnight, and will taper off to showers or drizzle Wednesday morning, but likely doesn’t end until Wednesday evening. For Western and Central New England, we have bigger issues.

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Freezing rain forecast through Thursday morning across the Northeast, Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Across the Berkshires, Catskills, and Adirondacks (and possibly the higher elevations of the Monadnocks and Worcester Hills), we’re looking at freezing rain, possibly a lot of it. Temperatures aloft will warm above freezing, but a thin layer of colder air will remain just above the surface. Since that layer is the ground layer in the hills, it will fall as freezing rain. Driving along I-90 through the Berkshires and also west of Albany out to about Utica could be very slick later today into early Wednesday. As the secondary storm takes over early Wednesday, colder air will move back in, changing the freezing rain over to snow, with a little accumulation possible.

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This graphic shows the difference in how you get snow vs sleet vs freezing rain. Image provided by NOAA.

 

Meanwhile, we’re looking at some snow across portions of central and southern Vermont and New Hampshire and into southwestern Maine. In areas that stay all snow, mainly across central New Hampshire and Vermont, we could see as much as 4-8 inches fall by the time the storm winds down late Saturday. The tricky forecast is from coastal Maine and New Hampshire into southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. In these areas, precipitation likely starts as snow this evening, but a change to sleet and eventually rain should take place overnight tonight or Wednesday morning, with a change back to snow possible late Wednesday as the system starts to wind down. How long that change takes will have a big effect on how much snow accumulates. Right now, it looks like we could see as much as 3-5″ near Manchester, NH, dropping down to 2-4″ around Nashua, and maybe an inch or less across the Merrimack Valley and the Seacoast, including Lowell, Lawrence, and Portsmouth. As you can see, with such a sharp gradient between several inches and virtually nothing, only a slight shift in the forecast can have a big difference in what actually falls across these areas.

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Snowfall forecast through Thursday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

The good news is that there isn’t much colder air following this storm. Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal for much of the remainder of the week, with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s. Contrast that with Alaska, where low temperatures for the next several mornings will range from 25 to 55 below zero across much of the state.

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Brutally cold air has settled into Alaska and will remain in place for much of the week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Weekly Outlook January 16-22, 2017

We’ve got good news and bad news in this week’s outlook. The good news is that the majority if the next 7 days will feature some pretty nice mid-winter conditions. The bad news is that late Tuesday and Wednesday might be rather nasty in parts of the region.

The week starts off with high pressure keeping us dry on Monday. By Tuesday, low pressure will start to head towards the Great Lakes. This is the same system that produced a severe ice storm across the Plains this past weekend. As this storm moves into the Great Lakes, a secondary storm will form off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This will complicate the forecast considerably, as it will keep cold air in place at the surface, while warmer air tries to move in aloft. The result will be quite a mess, especially across the interior. From Boston southward, this is mainly a rain storm, with some snow or sleet right at the start late Tuesday. North and west of Boston, it’s a different story. We’ll likely start as some snow, but a changeover to sleet and freezing rain seems likely at some point Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This leads us to a couple of questions. First, when does that change take place, because that will determine how much snow and how much freezing rain we’re getting. Secondly, do temperatures ever get above freezing to allow everything to change over to plain rain? We’ll likely devote another blog post to this later Monday or Tuesday as the threat becomes a little clearer. Depending on how quickly the storm pulls away, precipitation may linger into early Thursday,  but high pressure starts to build in later that day, and remains in control right through the weekend.

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The roads might be in rough shape Tuesday evening north and west of Boston with a wintry mix possible. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, but some high clouds will start to move in late in the day. High 34-41.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Tuesday: Cloudy, showers developing in the afternoon south of Boston, a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain north and west. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Wintry mix continues outside of 495, precipitation changes to all rain inside of 495. Low 28-35 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Precipitation eventually changes to all rain in most areas, though it could remain a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across central New Hampshire. Everything tapers off and ends in the evening, possibly changing back to wet snow in many areas before doing so. High 33-40 from the Merrimack Valley northward, 40-47 south of the Merrimack Valley.

Thursday: Breezy with rain or snow showers possibly lingering in eastern areas during the morning, some sunny breaks may start to develop in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 37-44.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 37-44.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 39-46.

Foxborough Forecast: Skies should be mostly clear Sunday evening with light winds, and temperatures starting in the lower 30s, dropping into the upper 20s around the time the Lamar Hunt trophy gets handed to Mr. Kraft for the 8th time. Patriots 27 Steelers 24

APTOPIX AFC Championship Football
Hopefully we’ll see a similar picture taken Sunday evening. Image provided by Patriots.com