While Irma continues to plow further into Florida and Jose spends some quality time over the open Atlantic, we’ve got a nice quiet week on our hands, thanks to a large area of high pressure. Not only will it be quiet, it’ll be warm too.

First, we’ll talk about the tropics. Irma continues to move northward across central Florida while weakening early this morning. Irma will weaken to a tropical storm during the day on Monday while turning more towards the northwest. The center of Irma should move across southern Georgia, and then up towards the Tennessee Valley, where it will likely dissipate towards the middle of the week. Winds will still be a major problem across Florida today, especially central and northern Florida, but the bigger threat will shift to rainfall as we head through the day and into mid-week. Additional rainfall totals of 6-12 inches or more are expected across northern Florida and southern Georgia, with 2-6 inches possible from the Tennessee Valley into parts of the Carolinas. This will likely lead to flooding in some areas. While some of this moisture will stream up here in the form of clouds, only a few showers are possible, as high pressure keeps the rain bottled up to our south.

We also are keeping an eye on Hurricane Jose. Early this morning, Jose was a few hundred miles east of the southern Bahamas with top winds near 100 mph. Jose will likely weaken a bit, and stall out or move very erratically for the next few days. As we get towards midweek, Jose may start to strengthen again while turning back towards the west, before eventually turning northward. While it is possible that Jose could be a threat to the East Coast, sometime next weekend or early in the following week, that threat is fairly low at this point. Yes, a couple of the computer models have shown a rather strong Hurricane Jose heading right up the East Coast around 10-12 days from now, but those models have problems picking out where things will be 3 days from now, never mind 10 days from now. In fact, 10 days ago, some of those exact same models showed Irma making landfall in New England. They were only off by over 1000 miles. In other words, despite seeing people post scary looking maps on Facebook and Twitter and telling you to start preparing now because New England could be next, we wouldn’t worry too much about it. If there is going to be a threat, we’ll let you know well in advance.

As for our actual forecast, well, that’s pretty easy. High pressure keeps us warm and dry through at least Thursday. A weak front may try to drop down into the region with some cooler conditions and possibly a few showers late in the week. Next weekend looks cooler, but likely still dry, as high pressure tries to build back into the region.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 75-82.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Clear skies.  Low 55-62.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 78-85.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with some showers possible. High 73-80, possibly cooler right along the coast, especially in the afternoon.

Saturday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 69-76.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Before we get to the week ahead, we’ll address Irma, since we’ve been getting questions about it already. As of 11pm Sunday, Irma was centered a little more than 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. It is moving towards the west-southwest at 14 mph. Hurricane Watches have been posted for the islands in the northeastern Caribbean. Irma will turn more towards the west and west-northwest over the next few days, with some fluctuations in intensity. It will pass very close to the islands of the northeastern Caribbean on Tuesday, then likely pass just north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, before setting its sights on the southeastern Bahamas later this week. Beyond that? Well, that’s a question that really can’t be answered yet. The computer models, which can be notoriously bad more than a couple of days out, are all over the place. Just based on these, landfall, could occur anywhere between New Orleans and Nova Scotia, or not at all. It will be a few more days at least before we start to have any clarity on whether the storm will impact the United States or not. If it were, it wouldn’t happen until early next week anyway. We’ll likely have a special post about Irma later this week, where we take a deeper dive into the storm. For now, just keep an eye on it, especially if you live near the coast.

As for what will happen up here, we’ve got a spectacular Labor Day coming up. As we read the traditional end of summer, it will certainly feel likely summer today with sunshine and warm temperatures. Tuesday will likely end up as another warm day, but the sunshine will disappear early behind increasing clouds. The more sunshine that we get, the warmer it will be. A cold front will slowly approaches the region, and may end stall out across the area. As a result, we’re looking at an extended period of wet weather starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night, going right into Thursday or perhaps even much of Friday. It’s not going to be raining the entire time, in fact, there may be extended stretches of time where it’s not raining, but for the most part, it will be cloudy, cooler, and damp, with occasional rain and thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy, which is actually good news, since parts of the region are starting to slip back towards drought conditions. Once this front finally moves out on Friday, high pressure builds in next weekend with sunshine and milder conditions.

Labor Day: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 76-83.

Monday night: Mostly clear with some high clouds moving in late at night. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Some early sunshine, then clouds thicken up. Showers and thunderstorms may develop late in the day, mainly north and west of Boston. Breezy. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Showers gradually spread across the region. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Cloudy with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms. High 70-77.

Thursday: Cloudy with more showers and drizzle expected. High 67-74.

Friday: More clouds than sun, some lingering showers, especially south of Boston. High 67-74.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 64-71.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 67-74.

“Summer’s going fast, nights growing colder”

Neil Peart wrote that line (and the rest of the song) 30 years ago, but it’s appropriate right now, as we’re coming up on Labor Day weekend, the “traditional” end of summer. Of course, meteorological summer ends on Thursday, so, we really are getting closer to fall. Just for completeness, the autumnal equinox occurs at 4:02pm on September 22. Of course, we’ve had plenty of hot weather in September before, so don’t start putting away the shorts just yet.

Before we get to the forecast around here, we’d like to discuss Harvey a little. In our post a few days ago, we mentioned the possibility that some locations could see 30-40 inches of rain over the span of a week as Harvey stalled across the region. Well, it looks like we underestimated that. Much of the area, especially right around Houston, has already seen 15-30 inches of rain, leading to catastrophic flooding across the region. Some of the pictures of the flooding have been just incredible. Unfortunately, with Harvey expected to move very little over the next few days, another 15-30 inches may fall across the region.

As for around here, the week will start off dry and cool, which is how the last week ended. High pressure remains in control, which will give us some sunshine for one more day. High clouds will start to stream in on Tuesday ahead of a tropical system off the East Coast (more on that in a minute). That system will pass south and east of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as it becomes a post-tropical system. It will likely pass close enough to spread some gusty winds and maybe some showers into Cape Cod and possible southeastern Massachusetts. A cold front then swings through the region on Thursday, bringing in more showers and maybe some thunderstorms. High pressure then returns will dry and cool conditions for Friday and Saturday. Clouds start to move back in on Sunday, and unfortunately, Labor Day isn’t looking that great right now, as a storm system moving in from the Great Lakes may bring us more showers. However, it’s a week away and things can change, so don’t go cancelling any plans just yet.

As we mentioned a moment ago, we may have a tropical system to deal with off the East Coast. As early early Monday morning, Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 was centered about 165 miles south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina. The system doesn’t have a well-defined circulation yet, which is why it’s only a “potential” tropical cyclone. If it does get its act together, it will be named Irma. The current forecast is for that to happen while the storm starts moving northeastward. Since it will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the Carolinas, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the South Santee River in South Carolina northward to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Once it passes the Outer Banks of North Carolina, it will likely accelerate east-northeastward out into the open Atlantic while slowly strengthening, but also losing its tropical characteristics.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 70-77.

Monday night: Some high clouds may start to spread across the region. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds to start, but clouds start to thicken up during the afternoon. High 66-73.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, becoming breezy across Cape Cod. Some showers are possible, mainly across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Low 53-60.

Wednesday: Some showers possible in the morning across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 66-73.

Thursday: A sunny start, then clouding back up with showers and maybe some thunderstorms late in the day. High 77-84.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 65-72.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 69-76.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 76-83.

Labor Day: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of showers. High 78-85.

Longer range: Aside from a system bringing in some showers towards midweek, much of next week looks dry and cool.

We’ve actually got a fairly straightforward forecast for much of this week, so we’ll get right to it.

The week starts off with high pressure bringing us sunshine and seasonable temperatures for Monday. A cold front moves through on Tuesday, with some showers and thunderstorms expected. A few of them could be on the strong side, but the bulk of the activity will remain to the north and west of most of the people reading this. Drier weather returns behind the front on Wednesday. Clouds return on Thursday ahead of another system. This is where we get to our question mark of the week – when will it rain?

Some models have the rain come in for Thursday night and Friday, others for Friday into Friday night. The timing of the rain and the cold front will also have implications on the temperatures, especially on Friday. These questions really can’t be answered yet. Things start to improve on Saturday, though another shower can’t be ruled out. High pressure then returns for Sunday.

Turning our attention to the tropics, we have Tropical Storm Gert, which is in between the East Coast and Bermuda. Unless you are a boater or are planning a cruise to Bermuda this week, you have nothing to worry about. Gert will strengthen some more, possibly even becoming a hurricane in a day or two. It will head northward, then make a sharp right turn and head out into the open Atlantic without threatening any land areas.

Perhaps you’ve heard rumblings of another system in the Atlantic? Yes, there is a wave that came off of Africa recently, and will be monitored as it makes it’s journey westward. Yes, it’s true that some of the models show it strengthening and possibly even threatening the East Coast. Here’s the thing, and we have mentioned this before. The models suck at predicting these things until they actually form. Even then, they’re not that much better. For example, the GFS model, which is the one that most people look at because it goes out 16 days had the storm that eventually became Gert. As we mentioned earlier, Gert is about halfway between the East Coast and Bermuda, and has a central pressure of 1009mb. If you go back and look at the GFS forecast from 11 days ago, it had Gert this evening centered about 50 miles east of Vero Beach, FL as a Category 5 hurricane with a central pressure of 926 mb. If this were the winter, that’d be the equivalent of a forecast of 4 feet of snow and you actually get sunshine. (We don’t want to hear any snide remarks – our forecasts has never been that bad) We’ll step off of our soapbox now, but please keep in mind, unless there’s actually a storm out there, ignore what the computers and especially the Facebook Forecasters have to say.

Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 79-86.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 79-86.

Tuesday night: Clearing skies. Low 60-67.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 80-87.

Thursday: Clouds slowly thicken up throughout the day. High 77-84.

Friday: Cloudy with showers likely. High 72-79.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, another shower or two possible. High 76-83.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 74-81.

Let’s turn the clock back about 6 months, to February 9, 2017. Do you remember that day? Patrice Bergeron had 4 points and the Bruins beat San Jose 6-3 in Bruce Cassidy’s first game as the new Bruins head coach. The Celtics beat the Portland Trailblazers 120-111, led by Isaiah Thomas scoring 34 points. Of course, we were also just four days removed from the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. Do you remember anything else about that day? No? Nothing? Let us refresh your memory:

Yeah, you remember now, don’t you? You were trying to block it out and we just brought it back. It was in the 20s and lower 30s for temperatures, and snowed heavily for much of the day. As you can see from the map above, many of us were shoveling somewhere in the vicinity of a foot of snow that day. So, why are we bringing this up now? We’re betting that on that day, you were probably thinking about a nice week of vacation in the middle of the summer, with sunshine, warm temperatures, and no hint of any snow. Does this sound familiar? Well, that week you were dreaming of is here.

High pressure will be in control for much of the week. For the first half of the week, that means sunshine, warm temperatures, and low humidity. Temperatures and humidity levels will start to creep up as we head towards midweek, with the possibility of some afternoon showers and thunderstorms as we get later in the week. A cold front may bring in more showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, then high pressure returns for Sunday.

Monday: Wall-to-wall sunshine with just a few afternoon clouds. High 81-88, a little cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Mostly clear. Low 59-66.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 83-90. a little cooler right along the coast.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, more humid, a shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. High 83-90.

Thursday: Partly sunny, afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible. High 83-90.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Finally, we’ll mention a couple of things about the tropics. There are still a few storms in the Pacific, and one area we’re watching in the Gulf of Mexico. First, we’ll talk about the Gulf, since it’s closer. There’s a cluster of thunderstorms off the west coast of Florida. It’s got a small window of opportunity to get its act together before moving into Florida on Tuesday. Once it moves back into the Atlantic, it could strengthen on its way out to sea. It’ll bring some heavy rain to Florida and the Bahamas over the next few days, but otherwise, it doesn’t look like a big deal.

In the Pacific,  things aren’t nearly as active as they were earlier in the week. We still have Tropical Storm Irwin in the Eastern Pacific, but probably not for too much longer. In the Western Pacific, we have Super Typhoon Noru. Noru is impacting a few small islands well south of Japan, and has likely peaked in intensity with maximum sustained winds near 150 mph early Monday morning. There’s still plenty of uncertainty in regards to Noru’s future track, and it could threaten southern Japan later this week. For now, just take a look at this beautiful monster: