Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: August 21-27, 2016

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As we start a new week all eyes will literally be looking at the sky. As you may have heard, there’s an eclipse today. The weather will cooperate, as high pressure provides us with sunshine, so viewing it shouldn’t be a problem. You’ve probably also heard plenty of people warning you not to look directly at the sun during the eclipse. Since you’ve heard it enough already, we won’t say it. Besides, if you want to look at the sun, we won’t stop you. Eyesight is overrated anyways. Plenty of people live without it. If that’s what you want, who are we to stop you? You’ll still be alive and free to go golfing in the middle of the thunderstorms we’re expecting on Tuesday. Don’t worry, they’ll likely be coming at night, so even if you were golfing, you wouldn’t be able to find the ball if you had eyesight.

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Cloud cover forecast from the HRRR model for 2pm Monday. Just a few clouds around, which shouldn’t impact eclipse viewing much. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Now that we’ve given you the teaser and the sarcasm, let’s get to the details. We start the week off with high pressure, giving us a fantastic Monday. A cold front approaches on Tuesday, producing showers and thunderstorms, mainly at night. A few of these storms could be quite strong, but with the activity mostly expected at night, that should limit the potential for severe weather. Of course, that doesn’t mean you should let your guard down. These storms still could produce heavy downpours, but severe weather is still possible at night. In fact, Tuesday marks the one year anniversary of the tornado that impacted Concord, MA at 3:20 in the morning.

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A rare overnight tornado impacted Concord, MA one year ago tomorrow. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Taunton, MA.

The showers and thunderstorms will taper off and end early Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region, then things get quiet again. We’ll dry out Wednesday afternoon but it will remain warm. We’ll cool off a little more on Thursday as an upper-level trough of low pressure settles into the Northeast while high pressure does at the surface, which will result in some cool days for Friday and the weekend.

Monday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, dimmed for a while by a passing moon in the afternoon. High 82-89.

Monday night: High clouds overspread the region. Low 64-71.

Tuesday: Clouds thicken up, with some showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 85-92.

Tuesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which could contain heavy downpours and gusty winds. Low 68-75.

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms end in the morning, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 78-85.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 74-81.

Friday: A sunny start, then clouds start to pop up with a slight chance for a spot shower in the afternoon. High 71-78.

Saturday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. High 70-77.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77.

Finally, we get to a topic that doesn’t impact this week’s forecast, but could have an impact early next week. For several days now, the Canadian model has been extremely insistent on a tropical disturbance developing near the Bahamas and eventually moving northward, up the East Coast early next week. There have been a few reasons to ignore this for the past few days:

  1. This was the only model showing this feature.
  2. The Canadian model always seems to take every little ripple in the tropics and blow it up into a hurricane.

So, why are we mentioning it now? There are a few reasons.

  1. Other models are starting to show the potential for something to develop near the Bahamas or Florida late this week or early next week.
  2. The Canadian model has been slightly better than many of the other models in regards to the tropics so far this season.
  3. It’s had this feature with very little variation for at least 6 consecutive model runs.

That last point is the main reason why we at least feel the need to mention it. This model has not really wavered much at all, and consistency is one of the things we look for in a model before we start to trust its solution. Add in the fact that other models are starting to come around, and well, it’s something we need to keep an eye on. This does not mean that a massive hurricane is going to wipe out the East Coast just before Labor Day. If anything does materialize, we’ll obviously keep you informed, but for now, it’s just something to keep in the back of your mind. (Of course, now that we’ve mentioned it, the next run of the Canadian model will likely change its tune completely)

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Forecast for Atlantic Disturbance 92L based on the Canadian GEM model initialized Sunday evening. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Weekly Outlook: August 14-20, 2017

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We’ve actually got a fairly straightforward forecast for much of this week, so we’ll get right to it.

The week starts off with high pressure bringing us sunshine and seasonable temperatures for Monday. A cold front moves through on Tuesday, with some showers and thunderstorms expected. A few of them could be on the strong side, but the bulk of the activity will remain to the north and west of most of the people reading this. Drier weather returns behind the front on Wednesday. Clouds return on Thursday ahead of another system. This is where we get to our question mark of the week – when will it rain?

Some models have the rain come in for Thursday night and Friday, others for Friday into Friday night. The timing of the rain and the cold front will also have implications on the temperatures, especially on Friday. These questions really can’t be answered yet. Things start to improve on Saturday, though another shower can’t be ruled out. High pressure then returns for Sunday.

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Some pretty big waves are possible along south-facing beaches by Wednesday as Tropical Storm Gert passes well offshore. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Turning our attention to the tropics, we have Tropical Storm Gert, which is in between the East Coast and Bermuda. Unless you are a boater or are planning a cruise to Bermuda this week, you have nothing to worry about. Gert will strengthen some more, possibly even becoming a hurricane in a day or two. It will head northward, then make a sharp right turn and head out into the open Atlantic without threatening any land areas.

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Model forecast for the track of Tropical Storm Gert. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Perhaps you’ve heard rumblings of another system in the Atlantic? Yes, there is a wave that came off of Africa recently, and will be monitored as it makes it’s journey westward. Yes, it’s true that some of the models show it strengthening and possibly even threatening the East Coast. Here’s the thing, and we have mentioned this before. The models suck at predicting these things until they actually form. Even then, they’re not that much better. For example, the GFS model, which is the one that most people look at because it goes out 16 days had the storm that eventually became Gert. As we mentioned earlier, Gert is about halfway between the East Coast and Bermuda, and has a central pressure of 1009mb. If you go back and look at the GFS forecast from 11 days ago, it had Gert this evening centered about 50 miles east of Vero Beach, FL as a Category 5 hurricane with a central pressure of 926 mb. If this were the winter, that’d be the equivalent of a forecast of 4 feet of snow and you actually get sunshine. (We don’t want to hear any snide remarks – our forecasts has never been that bad) We’ll step off of our soapbox now, but please keep in mind, unless there’s actually a storm out there, ignore what the computers and especially the Facebook Forecasters have to say.

Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 79-86.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 79-86.

Tuesday night: Clearing skies. Low 60-67.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 80-87.

Thursday: Clouds slowly thicken up throughout the day. High 77-84.

Friday: Cloudy with showers likely. High 72-79.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, another shower or two possible. High 76-83.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 74-81.

Weekly Outlook: August 7-13, 2017

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We lost a true legend of the meteorological community a few days ago. RIP Dick Albert. Image provided by WCVB.com

As we get into the middle of August, we are at the traditional end of the so-called “Dog Days of Summer“. Most of this week is not going to live up to that name though. Instead, we’re going to be stuck with “MOTS” as the late, great Dick Albert used to say. That stands for “More Of The Same”. In other words, not much heat, but more rain.

The week starts off with low pressure passing south of New England. That means were in for some rain and cool conditions later Monday into Tuesday. In some places, it might be more than “some” rain, and could be “a lot” of rain. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly Friday, meaning we get to use another one of Dickie’s favorite expressions to describe those days – “F and D”, which means “Fine and Dandy.” Next weekend could be unsettled, as we’ll have a frontal system in the neighborhood, so the possibility for showers and thunderstorms will increase.

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Rainfall forecast through Tuesday evening based on the NAM model. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy with rain developing during the afternoon. High 72-79.

Monday night: Periods of rain and showers, possibly heavy at times, especially along the South Coast. A rumble of thunder is also possible. Breezy at times, mainly south of Boston. Low 58-65.

Tuesday: Showers taper off and end in the morning. Some sunny breaks may develop late in the day.  High 70-77.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 55-62.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 77-84.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 76-83.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 75-82.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 74-81.

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Computer model forecasts for the track of Tropical Storm Franklin. Image provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

The tropical Atlantic is finally waking up from its long slumber. Tropical Storm Franklin formed late Sunday evening in the western Caribbean. As of early Monday morning, it was centered just off the coastline of Nicaragua and Honduras. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph. The current forecast calls for the storm to move into the Yucatan Peninsula Monday evening, then move back into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. From there, it will likely head westward, towards the eastern coast of Mexico. Landfall is likely towards the middle to latter half of the week. The majority of the forecast models are showing that Franklin should make its second landfall as a strong tropical storm. We’re not so sure about that. For one, the models that predict intensity of tropical systems are, shall we say, not that good. OK, they suck. Maybe not as much as the New York Jets or the UMass Hockey team, but they’re not that good. Also, the water in the western Gulf of Mexico is some of the warmest water you’ll find in the Western Hemisphere right now. That could provide plenty of fuel to strengthen a system. There are plenty of other factors involved, starting with the potential for the system to not even survive its trip across the Yucatan. Having said that, we wouldn’t be surprised at all if Franklin approached the coast of Mexico as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane later this week.

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Plenty of bathwater in the western Gulf of Mexico can help fuel a strengthening tropical system. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Weekly Outlook: July 31 – August 6, 2017

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Let’s turn the clock back about 6 months, to February 9, 2017. Do you remember that day? Patrice Bergeron had 4 points and the Bruins beat San Jose 6-3 in Bruce Cassidy’s first game as the new Bruins head coach. The Celtics beat the Portland Trailblazers 120-111, led by Isaiah Thomas scoring 34 points. Of course, we were also just four days removed from the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. Do you remember anything else about that day? No? Nothing? Let us refresh your memory:

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Snowfall totals from February 9,2017. Image provided by the National Weather Service Office in Taunton, MA

 

Yeah, you remember now, don’t you? You were trying to block it out and we just brought it back. It was in the 20s and lower 30s for temperatures, and snowed heavily for much of the day. As you can see from the map above, many of us were shoveling somewhere in the vicinity of a foot of snow that day. So, why are we bringing this up now? We’re betting that on that day, you were probably thinking about a nice week of vacation in the middle of the summer, with sunshine, warm temperatures, and no hint of any snow. Does this sound familiar? Well, that week you were dreaming of is here.

High pressure will be in control for much of the week. For the first half of the week, that means sunshine, warm temperatures, and low humidity. Temperatures and humidity levels will start to creep up as we head towards midweek, with the possibility of some afternoon showers and thunderstorms as we get later in the week. A cold front may bring in more showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, then high pressure returns for Sunday.

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Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s on the last day of July? We’ll take that without question. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Wall-to-wall sunshine with just a few afternoon clouds. High 81-88, a little cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Mostly clear. Low 59-66.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 83-90. a little cooler right along the coast.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, more humid, a shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. High 83-90.

Thursday: Partly sunny, afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible. High 83-90.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Finally, we’ll mention a couple of things about the tropics. There are still a few storms in the Pacific, and one area we’re watching in the Gulf of Mexico. First, we’ll talk about the Gulf, since it’s closer. There’s a cluster of thunderstorms off the west coast of Florida. It’s got a small window of opportunity to get its act together before moving into Florida on Tuesday. Once it moves back into the Atlantic, it could strengthen on its way out to sea. It’ll bring some heavy rain to Florida and the Bahamas over the next few days, but otherwise, it doesn’t look like a big deal.

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Computer model forecasts for the track of a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

In the Pacific,  things aren’t nearly as active as they were earlier in the week. We still have Tropical Storm Irwin in the Eastern Pacific, but probably not for too much longer. In the Western Pacific, we have Super Typhoon Noru. Noru is impacting a few small islands well south of Japan, and has likely peaked in intensity with maximum sustained winds near 150 mph early Monday morning. There’s still plenty of uncertainty in regards to Noru’s future track, and it could threaten southern Japan later this week. For now, just take a look at this beautiful monster:

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Visible satellite loop of Super Typhoon Noru. She’s a beauty, eh? Loop provided by NOAA.

Weekly Outlook: July 24-30, 2017

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Hope you enjoyed the summer weather we had last week, because we’ve got some suck-tastic (Note: that’s a technical term) conditions on the way today. Don’t worry, things will improve during the week.

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There could be quite a bit of rain around here today into Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A frontal system will remain south of us today into Tuesday, with a wave of low pressure riding along it. That will bring us in some rain today, and it might be fairly heavy in spots, especially along the South Coast. Some localized flash flooding is possible.

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Temperatures could be 10-15 (or more) degrees below normal around here today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

But wait, the rain isn’t the only thing to make Monday suck-tastic! We’ve got cool temperatures too! How cool? We’re glad you asked, because we have the answer. How does 60s sound for highs? Some models are hinting that temperatures could stay in the 50s during the afternoon. That’s awfully chilly for mid-July, even in New England. In fact, we could set some record low max temperatures. We’re all going to have a case of the Mondays.

But wait, there’s more! We’ve also got coastal flooding! That’s right, thanks to a full moon giving us the highest tides of the month, and a persistent onshore wind, some coastal flooding is possible around high tide, especially along east-facing shorelines.

By Tuesday, the low pressure area will start to slowly pull away, though we could see a few leftover showers. The clouds may hang tough for a good chunk of the day, and temperatures may also stay cool, so it won’t be the best of days, but at least it won’t be as bad as today.

Things get much better on Wednesday when high pressure builds in, bringing us sunshine, milder temperatures, and low humidity. Don’t get used to it. The humidity returns on Thursday along with the chance for some showers and thunderstorms ahead of another cold front. That front will move through early Friday, and stall out. We’ll have to see exactly where it stalls, as a wave of low pressure is going to ride along that front on Friday. If it stalls out south of New England, as at least one model shows, then skies could clear out and the rain stays off to our south. If the front stalls out right across the area, as another model shows, then we could be looking at another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms for Friday, with unsettled conditions lingering into Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday with drier and cooler conditions.

The GFS model keeps low pressure well south of New England Friday into Saturday, with some fair weather across the area. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
The ECMWF model brings low pressure right across New England Friday into Saturday, with another round of suck-tastic weather across the area. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Cloudy, breezy, and cool with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. High 60-67.

Monday night: Cloudy with some additional showers or drizzle around. Low 54-61.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few more showers. High 64-71.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 75-82.

Thursday: Partly sunny, becoming humid, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 78-85.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. High 73-80.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few additional showers. High 75-82.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny and drier. High 76-83.

Weekly Outlook: July 17-23, 2017

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Here we are in the middle of summer, and we’re still waiting to have a full week of actual “summer” weather. Well, guess what? That wait may finally be over! That’s right, some actual bona-fide “summer weather” looks like it’ll be here for the next 7 days.

What’s actually going on for most of the week is fairly simple to explain. High pressure will remain in place off the East Coast for the next several days. That means we’ll have warm and increasingly humid conditions right through Wednesday. When it’s warm and humid, we also have the daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. We’re not expecting any widespread severe weather, but any storms that do form could produce some gusty winds and heavy downpours. Thunderstorms may be a bit more widespread as we head into Thursday, especially Thursday evening and night, as a cold front moves towards the region. Ahead of the front, temperatures should reach the 90s across much of the region, making for an oppressive day. Of course, some of you enjoy that, so Thursday might be considered the “best” day of the week by those standards. The front moves through Thursday night, and drier and slightly cooler conditions return for Friday and Saturday. Clouds and maybe more showers and thunderstorms could return on Sunday ahead of another front.

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Thursday is looking like a very toasty afternoon across the area. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly sunny skies, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 81-88.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 78-85.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Sunshine gives way to increasing clouds with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. High 84-91.

Thursday: Partly sunny, hot, and humid, with a chance for late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 88-95.

Friday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, less humid. High 82-89.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 78-85.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 80-87.

Weekly Outlook: July 10-16, 2017

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We’re approaching the mid-point of meteorological summer, so you’d think that we should finally have a week of typical “summer weather”, right? C’mon, you should know better. This is New England, the only thing typical about the weather here is that is typically changes all the time. This week won’t be an exception.

The week will start off with high pressure moving off the East Coast, so we’ll have warm and increasingly humid air in place. So far, so good, right? A cold front approaches on Tuesday, likely triggering some showers and thunderstorms. A few strong storms are possible, but the bulk of the severe weather should remain well to our north and west. That front looks like it’s going to stall out near the South Coast on Wednesday. This may keep clouds and some showers around, especially the closer you get to the South Coast. A couple of weak systems will move through for Thursday and Friday, with more rain and unseasonably cool temperatures, though it could remain warm south of the Mass Pike – south of the front. Things should improve next weekend, both in the skycover and temperature departments.

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A frontal system could set up quite a different in temperature across the region Thursday afternoon. At least one model shows afternoon temperatures dropping into the 50s across parts of Maine and New Hampshire, while the South Coast could be pushing 90. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 80-87.

Monday night: Partly cloudy, showers possible late at night. Low 63-70.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, additional showers and thunderstorms are likely. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms taper off in the evening. Low 65-72.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 78-85.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with more showers and thunderstorms possible. High 70-78 north of the Mass Pike, 78-85 south of the Mass Pike. Temperatures could drop sharply in the afternoon.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and showers. High 63-70 north of the Mass Pike, 70-77 south of the Mass Pike.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 75-82.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 80-87.

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There is a chance that another system could develop in the Atlantic later this week. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Finally, we’ll address the tropics again. Right now, the Atlantic is relatively quiet. A weak tropical wave is passing south of the Cape Verde Islands, producing some showers and thunderstorms. As we normally do at this time of year, we’ll keep an eye on it as it makes it’s way across the Atlantic Ocean this week. Conditions might be favorable for some development, but if any occurs, it likely won’t happen for several more days. That being said, some of the computer models have been suggesting that this system will develop, which has sent some of the weather weenies on the internet into a frenzy. If we had a dollar for every time the models tried to develop a tropical system and it never happened, we’d be filthy rich right now. These models are notoriously bad and predicting the development of these systems. We’re talking UMass-Amherst hockey level of ineptitude. We’re not going to state right now that this system won’t develop. These models are right on occasion, and there is always a chance. But right now, that chance is pretty low. If it does develop, we’ll let you know if there’s anything to worry about.

Weekly Outlook: July 3-9, 2017

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HoustonKansasCity 138
We’ll have perfect weather for fireworks displays on the Fourth of July.

We’ve made it to July, and the stubborn pattern we had for much of the Spring and well into June is finally gone.

We’ll start right off with the forecast for Tuesday, since that’s the day people are most interested in. Planning a barbecue? Perfect weather for it. Heading into the pool or to the beach? Bring the sunscreen. Watching fireworks in the evening? No problems expected. Stuck working because your chosen profession doesn’t take holidays? Sucks to be you, but don’t expect anyone to feel bad for you.

As for the rest of the week, sunshine and warm temperatures will be here for the next few days, along with low humidity, as high pressure builds in across northern New England. There is a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon as a weak upper-level disturbance moves through, mainly along the South Coast. However, the bulk of the activity looks like it should remain well to our south and west. As the high slides offshore later this week, humidity will start to creep back into the region. With humidity comes the risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. That risk looks to be the greatest Friday and Saturday as another cold front starts to approach the region. While it’s still a bit early, and the timing of the front will play a critical role, we wouldn’t be surprised to see some severe storms develop on Saturday, if everything comes together. We’ll monitor this as the week progresses. High pressure will build in behind the front with drier conditions for next Sunday.

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A moist and unstable airmass may be in place ahead of a cold front next Saturday, which could help to produce strong to severe thunderstorms. Image provided by the College of Dupage.
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A moist and unstable airmass may be in place ahead of a cold front next Saturday, which could help to produce strong to severe thunderstorms. Image provided by the College of Dupage.

While we’ve got a fairly simple forecast here for most of the week, things are starting to cook out in the Atlantic. A tropical disturbance located well east of the Lesser Antilles has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week.  There’s nothing to worry about now, but some of the models (not all), try to develop the system into a hurricane at some point, and possibly become a threat to the East Coast or Bermuda about 2 weeks from now. The odds of this happening are still pretty low, so we wouldn’t worry about it too much, but we’ll certainly keep our eyes on this system, as well as the rest of the tropics.

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GFS Ensemble forecasts for the track of a tropical disturbance in the Central Atlantic. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

 

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, just a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm near the South Coast. High 81-88.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 77-84.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Perfect weather for fireworks in the evening. Low 55-62.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 78-85.

Thursday: A sunny start, then clouds develop along with the chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, becoming humid. High 77-84.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, humid, chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 80-87.

Saturday: Partly sunny, more showers and thunderstorms are possible. Some of the storms could be strong to severe in the afternoon. High 83-90.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with a few afternoon clouds, drier. High 75-82.

Weekly Outlook: June 25 – July 2, 2017

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Can you believe that we are just about at the halfway point of the year already? Yup, before you know it, we’ll be talking about football, then hockey, and snowstorms, and….well, we’ll stop there before we upset everyone.

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Yes, it’s late June, but some snow is possible in the higher elevations of Wyoming and Montana later this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Well, we are supposedly in the middle of summer now, but the weather pattern is definitely not a typical summertime pattern. An upper-level trough of low pressure will move into the Northeast for the start of the week. That means that we’ll start off each day with sunshine, but clouds will pop up and likely some showers or thunderstorms each afternoon. High pressure starts to build in on Wednesday with drier and milder conditions. By Thursday, a warm front will cross the region, with more showers and thunderstorms expected. Friday will finally be a typical summer day, with warm and humid conditions, but also the chance for more showers and thunderstorms. Next weekend, things get tricky again. A back door cold front will try to drop down from the north and will likely stall out somewhere in our vicinity. Exactly where it stalls will have a huge impact on the temperatures around here. South and west of the front, it will remain humid, with temperatures well into the 80s or even the 90s. North and east of the front, temperatures may stay in the 60s and lower 70s, especially near the coastline. Of course, since, it’s the start of the long holiday weekend, these details are fairly important. Hopefully, we’ll have more clarity as we head through the week.

Monday: A sunny start, then clouds develop along with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 74-81.

Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms taper off in the evening, then skies clear out overnight. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Clouds return along with the chance for more showers and thunderstorms. High 72-79.

Tuesday night: Clearing skies. Low 53-60.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny, just a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 72-79.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly late in the day and at night. High 76-83.

Friday: Partly sunny and breezy, more showers and thunderstorms may develop. High 83-90.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83, possibly warmer well inland and cooler right along the coast.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with more showers and thunderstorms around. High 80-87.

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The Atlantic remains quiet, but in the Pacific, Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Dora is intensify just off the southern Mexican coastline. Loop provided by NOAA.

Weekly Outlook: June 19-25, 2017

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We apologize for the brief post this week, but we wanted to make sure we still provided you with an update, especially since Monday could be an active day.

A cold front will approach the region on Monday, and with a warm and humid airmass in place, that front will likely trigger some strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will likely occur west of our area, but some of them will likely survive into eastern New England. Some of the storms will produce heavy downpours, strong winds, hail, and possibly even a tornado or two.

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Severe weather is possible across New England on Monday, especially northern and western areas. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

High pressure will build in for the middle of the week with much drier conditions. The high slides offshore late in the week, allowing warm and humid conditions to return. Another front approaches next weekend, with more showers and thunderstorms possible.

Monday: Becoming cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms developing, some of which could become strong to severe. High 80-87, cooler along the South Coast.

Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms taper off in the evening, then skies clear out late at night. Low 65-72.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 75-82.

Thursday: A sunny start, high clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 76-83.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, warmer, and more humid, with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 81-88, cooler along the South Coast.

Saturday: More clouds than sun with more showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 78-85.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 76-83.

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Two tropical disturbances are being monitored right now, one near the Yucatan, and one east of the Lesser Antilles. Loop provided by NOAA.

The tropics have also awakened. There a disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles that could become a tropical depression on Monday. Tropical Storm Warnings have already been issued for some of the islands. A second disturbance near the Yucatan could become more of a threat to the Gulf of Mexico later this week.