Thanksgiving is upon us, and at least it shouldn’t be as cold as last year. We’ve got a few things to worry about before worrying about leftovers though.

Similar to last week, we’re starting off this week with a bit of an icing problem. Many roads remained wet after yesterday’s rain, and temperatures dropped below freezing this morning, so again, if you’re heading out this morning, be careful as untreated surfaces could be slippery. We will see sunshine though, as high pressure builds into the region. That’ll keep it on cool side today, but as the high slides off to the east, milder weather will settle in for Tuesday.

Moving along, Wednesday is a big travel day for many people, and also the last work day of the week for plenty of people as well. Well, it’ll be mild, but also damp. Low pressure will pass north and west of the region, so we’ll be on the warm side of it for a while, but it will drag a cold front through late in the day. That’ll bring an end to the rain, but also usher colder air in for Thanksgiving. It won’t be as cold as last year, but it will still be cool and breezy, so bundle up if you’re heading outside, especially if you’re heading to one of the traditional Thanksgiving high school football games.

Sunny and cool conditions are expected on Friday as high pressure builds in, so dress warmly if you’re heading out for some Black Friday sales. The dry and cool weather continues into Saturday. Sunday, however, is still a big question mark. Low pressure will move into the Midwest for the weekend, but could impact our area on Sunday. The models don’t agree on the evolution of the system, and as a result, have a wide variety of ideas. At this point, almost anything could happen. We could have snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, any combination of all of these, or even none of them if the system ends up moving slower than expected. For now, we’ll just say that Sunday looks unsettled, and we should have a better idea of what to expect later in the week.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds, watch out for black ice in the morning. High 45-52.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 49-56.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers likely during the afternoon and evening. High 47-54.

Thanksgiving: A mix of sun and clouds, a lingering shower or two are possible across parts of Cape Cod, breezy. High 41-48.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Saturday: Sunshine gradually fades behind increasing clouds. High 34-41.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of…….something. High 38-45.

Ice in your drink? That’s a good thing. Ice on an injury? It helps, so it’s good too. Ice on the roadways? Not good at all. Unfortunately, some of you may have to deal with that this morning.

The low pressure system that brought heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding to the Carolinas over the weekend will pass south and east of New England today, bring some of those same issues here, but also introducing other problems. It will bring in some rainfall to our area today, with some strong winds, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Some coastal flooding is possible across eastern Massachusetts around high tide as well. However, the biggest problem will already be ongoing (or maybe even over) by the time most of you read this.

Some light precipitation will move into the region this morning ahead of the system. Temperatures will also be below freezing, mainly north and west of Interstate 95. What happens when you have subfreezing temperatures at the surface, warmer air aloft, and some precipitation falling? If you guessed freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle, then you are correct! That’s bad news if you’ve got to be out and about on the roads this morning. Most cities and towns should have pre-treated the roads, but some of the side roads and also bridges and overpasses could be a little slick this morning, so use caution and give yourself a little extra time. Temperatures should warm above freezing most places this morning before the steadier and heavier rain arrives, so there shouldn’t be too many problems.

After a miserable day today (temperatures in the 30s, gusty winds, and rain – you have a better word to describe it?), the system pulls away tonight, but one last batch of precipitation moves through overnight and early Tuesday as an upper-level low pressure area moves across the Northeast. This will be mostly rain, but as some colder air starts to move in behind the storm, some wet snowflakes could mix in, especially across the higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire.

Once the system pulls away, we dry out on Tuesday, but the clouds remain in place into Wednesday as another system passes offshore. This one will be too far offshore to produce anything more than clouds, but it will help to bring colder air down from the north. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and Thursday with clearing and chilly weather.

Clouds come back late Thursday as low pressure heads toward southeastern Canada. That low passes by to the north and west on Friday, dragging a cold front across the region. It will get mild ahead of the front, but some more rain is expected as well. Once the front moves through, high pressure builds back in for Saturday with another shot of cold weather. Sunday is still up in the air a bit. We’ve got one model showing a weak system passing by to the north, with a few snow showers, while another model has a system moving in from the southwest, with some rain, and a third model has high pressure building in.

If you’re looking ahead to Thanksgiving already, well, it’s too early to try and pin down any specifics, but most of the models have a fairly potent storm system moving out of the Midwest and towards the Northeast sometime in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. For now at least, the models are showing mostly rain, but again, it’s a long ways away. If you’re traveling for the holiday, just keep an eye on the forecast. We’ll have more details in next week’s outlook obviously.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy (windy across Cape Cod) with some freezing drizzle north and west of I=95 in the morning, changing to plain rain by midday. Occasional showers becoming a steady rain during the afternoon south and east of I-95. High 33-40 north and west of Boston, 40-47 south of Boston.

Monday night: Cloudy with some showers likely. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers ending in the morning, possibly mixed with some wet snow over the higher terrain. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds. High 38-45.

Thursday: That big bright thing in the sky returns, though some high clouds move in late in the day. High 41-48.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and milder with some showers likely. High 49-56.

Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and colder. High 38-45.

Sunday: Clouds return again with a chance for some showers. High 40-47.

Uh-oh. It’s that time. You’ve been dreading it, but you knew it was coming eventually. We’re going to use a four-letter word that you hate. That’s right, the word is “snow”. It is November after all, and your luck will run out eventually.

We’ll start the week under the influence of high pressure, so another dry and cool day is expected today. A weak cold front moves through on Tuesday, producing some showers, but they shouldn’t be too heavy or last that long. Ahead of the front, it actually might be a bit mild around here. Don’t get too used to it, because high pressure returns for Wednesday with dry and cool weather once again. This brings us to the end of the week.

Another cold front will move through on Thursday, with some rain likely. The front will likely stall out, but where it stalls is still a big question mark. It’s an important one too, as a wave of low pressure will likely ride along the front. One model has the front stall out well to the south, with the wave staying well offshore. This would allow high pressure to build in, and result in a dry but very cold Friday, and into the weekend. Other models have the front stall just south of the region, and the wave pass a lot closer. This would likely result widespread precipitation across the region, with at least some of it falling as snow across the interior, possibly even to the coastline. High pressure would then build in behind the storm for a dry and very chilly weekend.

There’s still plenty of uncertainty with this storm, and at this point, we’re not sure which way to lean. On one hand, some of the models have been indicating for quite some time now the possibility of snow for parts of the area somewhere in the November 9-13 time frame. However, they’ve been changing with the details on nearly every run, so while our confidence has growing that we’d some “some” snow during that period, we really couldn’t go into deeper detail than that. At this point, we still can’t, because there is still little agreement with the models. However, should we end up dealing with a storm system, the closer you are to the coast, the less likely you’ll see accumulating snow. Ocean temperatures are still in the upper 40s to lower 50s, so a wind blowing off the ocean would bring milder air in along the coast. Plus, the ground is still relatively mild. Sure, we could see some snow even at the coastline, but the better chance for accumulating snow would be north and west of Boston. The farther inland, the better the odds. Obviously, we’ll keep an eye on the evolution of this system as the week goes on, and if needed, will write a special blog post later in the week.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Tuesday: Some morning sunshine, then becoming cloudy with a few showers likely during the afternoon. High 54-61.

Tuesday night: Any lingering showers end during the evening, then skies become mostly clear. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 44-51.

Thursday: Some early sun, then becoming cloudy with showers developing late in the day. Showers may change to snow overnight, especially north and west of Boston. High 47-54.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow north and west of Boston in the morning, chance of rain possibly mixed with wet snow from Boston southward. Skies will clear out late in the day. High 34-41.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 32-39.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 41-48.

One final note – several models show the potential for another system towards the middle of next week that may also contain the “s” word. Welcome to winter!

Changes are coming, right about when we flip the calendar until November. Before that? Let’s just say that this will be a good week to get stuff done around the house in you’re not working.

The low pressure that brought us all the rain and wind yesterday? Yeah, it hasn’t gone too far away yet. It’ll keep some clouds around today, especially close to the coastline, with some patchy drizzle, fog, and maybe even a few showers. It may also help produce a little coastal flooding, as tides remain astronomically high, and persistent northeast to east winds will help push the water into the coastline.

The low starts to pull away Monday night and high pressure starts to build into the Canadian Maritimes, so things get better for Tuesday and Wednesday, right? Sorta. We’ll still have some residual moisture around thanks to easterly winds, that’ll keep clouds and maybe some drizzle or a few showers around. A weak trough of low pressure may bring in some additional showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

OK, so once the trough moves through, things finally improve, right? Wrong, they go downhill even more. Low pressure moving across the Ohio Valley will move into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. Ahead of it, we should get pretty mild around here, thanks to some gusty south to southwest winds. However, we’ll also have plenty of clouds and some rain, possibly a decent amount of rain. (For trick-or-treaters: Find an umbrella) A strong cold front brings an end to the rain sometime Friday morning or early afternoon.

Alright, so things will finally get better for next weekend, right? Yes and no. High pressure will build in, so we’ll have sunshine returning. That’s good. However, much cooler air will also move in (it will be November after all), and for some of you, that’s not a good thing. Also, don’t forget that Daylight Saving Time ends next Sunday morning at 2am. That means you get an extra hour of sleep!

Monday: Low clouds, fog, drizzle, maybe a few sunny breaks well inland in the morning. High 51-58.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some drizzle and fog around. Low 44-51.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with a chance for some drizzle or a shower, a few sunny breaks are also possible. High 53-60.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers likely. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and milder with a few showers around. High 60-67.

Thursday (Halloween): Cloudy, breezy, and mild with scattered showers. High 59-66.

Friday: Windy with rain ending in the morning, then becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 61-68 in the morning, then temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds, much cooler. High 49-56.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Finally, we’ve seen plenty of people releasing their “Winter Outlook” over the past week or two, and more will be coming in the next few weeks. Lots of these will fail spectacularly, others may end up close to the truth. But we’re going to give you ours right now. Not only that, we’re going to guarantee that it’s 100% accurate! You read that right. So, without further delay, here’s our outlook: The months of December through March will be colder than temperatures are now, and there will be some snow. If you want any more details than that, we’ll keep providing them through the winter, 7 days at a time, more often when there are storms.

Who likes rain? Well, you’ve got some coming this week. What about mild weather? That’s coming as well. Cool weather instead? Yup, we’ve got that too. What about snow? Sorry, none of that…..yet.

We start the week off with what’s left of “Tropical Storm Nestor” (we’re not convinced it was ever really a tropical storm), south and east of the Cape and Islands. Any lingering showers from the storm end in the morning, with some clearing taking place in the afternoon, especially the farther north you go. The clouds come right back in Monday night as a frontal system starts to move in from the west. That front will bring in some showers, mainly late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Once the front moves offshore on Wednesday, skies start to clear out as high pressure builds in. That will bring us dry and seasonably mild weather for Thursday. However, another system will start to move in later Friday with another round of showers expected late Friday and Friday. High pressure builds in behind the system with dry and cooler conditions for next weekend. While we’re fairly sure Saturday will be dry, Sunday may not be. One model shows the potential for another storm to move in, with rain by late in the day. A second model holds the rain off until Sunday night, while a third keeps the system south of the region entirely. We’re going to lean towards a dry forecast for now, but it’s low confidence at this time.

Monday: Some lingering clouds and a few showers across southeastern Massachusetts, becoming partly to mostly sunny elsewhere. High 56-63.

Monday night: Clouds return. Low 42-49.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late in the day. High 53-60.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, a few of which may be heavy. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: Breezy with showers ending early then clouds gradually give way to afternoon sunshine. High 59-66.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 57-64.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely late in the day and at night. High 57-64.

Saturday: Any lingering showers end in the morning, then a mix of sun and clouds and cooler in the afternoon. High 50-57.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late in the day and at night. High 49-56.

We’ve got good news and bad news for this week’s forecast. Good news: Some mild weather is expected. Bad news, some rain is expected as well. But wait, we need the rain, so maybe that’s good news too! Let’s get to the details.

We start the week off with an area of low pressure passing south of the region. It may produce some showers this morning across the Cape and the Islands and possibly the South Coast, but by afternoon, we’ll see sunshine in most places. A weak cold front moves through this evening, then high pressure builds in for Tuesday into part of Wednesday. This will result in more sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures.

Later Wednesday, a coastal storm will start to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and head northeastward, likely passing very close to, if not right over, the Cape and Islands. As this storm gets wound up, it will bring some gusty winds to the region, especially on Thursday as it moves into the Gulf of Maine. It will also produce some rainfall. Many of the models are indicating the potential for some heavy rainfall. However, these same models went for heavy rainfall with the last few similar storms, and for the most part, it didn’t materialize. Plus, we’ve been very dry lately. We’re not in a drought yet, but things have been trending that way. When we are in drought, most storms seem to under-perform rainfall-wise, compared to what the models show. Since we’ve been burned on the last couple of storms, we’re of the opinion that we need to see it to believe it. Yes, we’re expecting rain Wednesday night into part of Thursday, but we’re not buying the “heavy rain” aspect just yet (but you can bet some of the TV guys will because they need something to hype).

High pressure builds in behind the storm on Friday with some cooler weather as an upper-level low pressure area crosses the Northeast. After that, the high moves offshore, and we warm up again next weekend. In fact, don’t be surprised if we top 70 again on Sunday. The warm weather may even remain in place for the beginning of the following week as well.

Monday: A few showers in the morning across the Cape and possibly the South Coast, otherwise skies will become partly to mostly sunny. High 63-70.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 40-47.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 54-61.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Wednesday: Some morning sunshine, then clouds move in during the afternoon. Breezy at times with rain developing towards the evening commute and continuing overnight. High 57-64.

Thursday: Windy with showers ending in the morning from southwest to northeast, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon. High 51-58.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, still breezy. High 53-60.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 56-63.

Sunday: More sunshine. High 63-70.

Remember all that sunshine and the warm temperatures that we had in September? Yeah, that’s not in this week’s forecast. This week will be a reminder of what October is usually like around here.

The week starts off with a mild day, but with plenty of clouds. An approaching cold front will bring in some showers by late afternoon, with some downpours possible during the evening and into the night. The rain comes to an end as the front pushes offshore, but it will stall out just south of the region. High pressure tries to build in from the north of Tuesday, but clouds may hang tough across southern parts of the region with the front just offshore, and a few showers are possible near the south coast.

By late Tuesday, low pressure will develop off the North Carolina coast and start drifting northward. It’s not going to move too much though with a ridge of high pressure off to the north and east, but the big question is – how far north does it actually get. Right now, it looks close enough to spread some occasional rain into the region by Tuesday night, mainly south of the Mass Pike, but possibly up into parts of New Hampshire and southern Maine. It will also produce east to northeast winds that may be gusty at times. This will result in some rather cool temperatures.

Oh, did we mention that the low will likely sit there until late Saturday when a cold front finally kicks it out to sea? Yeah, that means cool and occasionally wet conditions from Tuesday night into Saturday. Doesn’t that sound…..awful? (OK, that’s probably not a strong enough word, but we didn’t want to resort to profanity). High pressure finally brings drier weather in for Sunday behind the cold front.

One note about that cold front, the system generating the front will be moving across parts of the Plains states and the Upper Midwest before moving into southern Canada. Before crossing the border, it could produce quite the snowstorm across parts of the Northern Plains later this week. Parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota could see a couple of feet of snow. While they get snow quite often in the winter, they usually don’t get this much at once, and even for places like Minnesota and North Dakota, this is a little early in the year for a storm to produce that much snow. For example, in Grand Forks, ND, home of the University of North Dakota, the largest October snowstorm on record is 10.9″ from October 24-26, 2001. In Bemidji, MN, the October snowstorm record is just 8.0″, done twice – October 18-20, 1917, and again October 29-30, 1932.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with showers developing late in the day from west to east. High 68-75.

Monday night: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, possibly a few downpours. Low 49-56.

Tuesday: Some sunshine may develop across southern New Hampshire, mostly cloudy elsewhere with a few showers possible across the South Coast and Cape Cod. High 60-67.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy and becoming breezy with showers possible, mainly south of Boston. Low 45-52.

Wednesday: Breezy and cool with periods of rain and showers likely. High 53-60.

Thursday: Cloudy, breezy, and cool again with occasional showers and drizzle. High 52-59.

Friday: More clouds, more drizzle, more showers at times too. High 55-62.

Saturday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks possible, but also some more showers and drizzle at times. High 57-64.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 62-69.

Yes, we’re a little later than normal, but we did warn you that would likely be the case. Without further delay, let’s get to a forecast that has some big changes coming to the area.

The rest of today should be pretty self explanatory with high pressure in control, so let’s jump ahead to tomorrow. A warm front will move through, and that will bring us a return to summer-like air as we flip the calendar to October. A few showers are possible ahead of the warm front, but overall, we’ve got a decent day coming up, despite some cloud cover.

This brings us to Wednesday – the transition day. We’ll start off warm, and could get very warm, but a strong cold front will move through. Exactly when that front comes through is still a little up in the air, which will have a significant impact on the temperatures. If it comes through late enough, we could see some locations get into the 80s. Behind it, temperatures will quickly drop. We’ll also have some showers and possibly thunderstorms to deal with as the front moves across the region.

The front settles south of the region Wednesday night and we may even clear out a bit, but that will be short-lived. Another system quickly approaches from the west with rain likely for much of Thursday and into early Friday. The rain isn’t the only part of Thursday that you’ll hate. Temperatures will likely be 20-30 degrees colder than Wednesday, with highs only in the 50s. Yup, fall will finally arrive. High pressure builds in behind that system for Friday into the weekend, with cool conditions. Some frost is possible for much of the region.

Monday afternoon: Partly sunny. High 59-66, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly north of the Mass Pike. Low 46-53, but temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Tuesday: A few showers possible early, then some sunshine may develop. Breezy and warmer. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely. Low 61-68.

Wednesday: Cloudy and mild with scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Turning sharply cooler in the afternoon. High 73-80.

Thursday: A few sunny breaks early, mainly from the Merrimack Valley northward, otherwise cloudy with showers developing, becoming a steady rain late in the day and at night. High 52-59.

Friday: Cloudy with showers ending early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and windy. High 57-64.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 55-62.

Sunday: More clouds than sun., breezy. High 59-66.

The autumnal equinox occurs at 3:50AM today, which means that by the time you read this, fall will have already started. Naturally, it will still feel like summer today.

We’ll start off fall with unseasonably warm temperatures once again, but clouds will start to move in ahead of a cold front. This front will produce some showers and maybe a few thunderstorms later today and tonight as it moves through the region. Cooler air settles in behind the front for Tuesday, but an upper-level low moving across the Northeast may result in some clouds and possibly another shower or two.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with dry weather. Temperatures will remain above normal, and should start to warm up again, but another cold front will quickly follow. This one will produce some more showers late Thursday and Thursday night, with high pressure building back in for Friday.

For next weekend, right now, it looks like we’ll be in a similar pattern with a warm day on Saturday, then a cold front brings in showers followed by cooler weather on Sunday. However, there is a chance that this front gets hung up north and west of the region or possibly even washes out. If that were to happen, Sunday could end up significantly warmer. We’re leaning against this scenario right now, but it is a possibility.

When will fall finally arrive? Well, right now, it looks like the unseasonably warm weather will continue into at least the first few days of October before we see a pattern change. Cooler weather looks like it may arrive late next week, which is perfect as far as we’re concerned, because that’s when hockey season starts. It shouldn’t be in the 70s around here when the Bruins are playing, unless it’s deep in the playoffs in May or June.

Monday: Some morning sunshine, then increasing clouds and breezy with showers and possibly some thunderstorms developing late in the day. High 81-88, cooler along the South Coast.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east, skies will clear out north and west of Boston overnight. Low 58-65.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or two in the afternoon, mainly north and west of Boston. High 71-78.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 68-75.

Thursday: Morning sunshine, then becoming mostly cloudy and breezy during the afternoon with some showers possible late in the day and into the evening. High 74-81.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 69-76.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a chance for a few showers. High 74-81.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds, some sunny breaks develop in the afternoon. High 70-77.

Note – this outlook is usually posted very early Monday morning. Next week, it may not get posted until late morning. We at StormHQ are taking a little road trip next week to western New York, to watch the Patriots stomp the Bills on the road to their seventh Super Bowl title. Since we have an early morning flight home Monday, we may not get a chance to write and subsequently post the weekly outlook until we’re back at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound until late Monday morning.