Weekly Outlook: May 18-25, 2020

If we had written this forecast a few days ago, it would have looked rather cool and damp for a large chunk of the week. Instead, it’s now looking a lot drier, and likely a bit milder, especially late in the week.

We start the week off with a warm front trying to move into the region, producing a few light showers this morning , mainly north of the Mass Pike. The front won’t quite make it, so we’ll remain on the cool side, with plenty of clouds. The reason the front won’t make it is a large area of high pressure over eastern Quebec is going to slowly build in and drop southward. As the high builds in, we’ll start to clear out for Tuesday, with another cool day expected, especially along the coast.

Normal high temperatures are in the upper 60s to near 70 in mid-to-late May. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As we had into the middle to latter portions of the week, that high pressure area will continue to slide southward and offshore, with winds shifting into the west and southwest. This will bring milder air back in, especially by Friday, when temperatures could top 80 degrees in spots.

By Friday night, a weak area of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states will start to push offshore south of New England. This will bring clouds back in along with a few showers. The more noticeable effect will be on temperatures, as winds will shift back into the east, bringing much cooler air back in off the chilly Atlantic. We’ll dry out Saturday night and Sunday as the low pulls away. High pressure should build back in for Memorial Day, with warmer weather returning.

At least one model is forecasting a rather warm Memorial Day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers in the morning, mainly north of the Mass Pike. High 60-67, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 41-48.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 55-62, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 38-45.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 59-66, a little cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 67-74, cooler along the South Coast.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80, cooler along the South Coast.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, chance for a few showers. High 68-75, but temperatures may turn cooler in the afternoon, especially along the coast.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 63-70, cooler along the coast.

Memorial Day: A mix of sun and clouds. High 70-77, cooler along the coast.

Tropical Storm Arthur will bring some rain and gusty winds to the Outer Banks of North Carolina today. Loop provided by NOAA.

Tropical Storm Arthur remains fairly weak off the Southeast coast early this morning. It will brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina later today with some gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but is expected to turn more toward the northeast and east and head out to sea while becoming extratropical on Tuesday. It may bring some gusty winds and rainfall to Bermuda later this week as an extra tropical system. After that, it may actually meander around in the central Atlantic for several days as an extratropical system, but won’t impact any land areas.

Weekly Outlook: May 11-17, 2020

We are finally ready to type the phrase you’ve all been waiting months to read – “Winter is over.”. We are done with snow until at least October, probably even later than that. Temperatures should finally start feeling like Spring as well. That doesn’t mean this week will be all sunshine and warm days.

We start the week off with low pressure heading out of the Great Lakes and towards New England today. It will send a warm front across the region this morning, with some showers likely. Once they move out, we’ll see some sunshine develop allowing temperatures to get fairly mild. However, a cold front will be approaching from the west and it will produce some showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon. A few of these storms may get quite strong, especially across the interior, with gusty winds and heavy downpours possible. With very cold air still in place aloft, we could also see some hail with any stronger storms that develop.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across most of the region today. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Everything moves offshore during the evening and then high pressure builds in with clearing Monday night. This will bring some chilly air back in for Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper-level low moves through on Tuesday, producing some afternoon clouds and possible a few sprinkles. Skies will clear out Tuesday night as the high really settles in, and we could be looking at record low temperatures Wednesday morning with frost likely for much of the region. We’ll remain on the chilly side (relative to May) on Wednesday.

Record low temperatures could be broken across parts of the region Wednesday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The high slides offshore on Thursday, with temperatures starting to warm up once again. We may start to see some clouds stream in late in the day ahead of the next system moving into the Great Lakes. The system will send a warm front across the region Thursday night, with another round of showers expected. As the system passes to the north, we’ll see much warmer air move in on Friday, with gusty winds winds and some sunshine allowing temperatures to rise into the 70s. However, another cold front moves through late in the day, with more showers or thunderstorms possible.

Right now, Friday looks like it will be quite warm. Image provided by WeatherBell.

This brings us to next weekend, where there is plenty of uncertainty in the forecast. High pressure builds in on Saturday with dry weather, and temperatures may remain warm. However, as that high slides off into Atlantic Canada, it will send a backdoor cold front down the coast Saturday night and into Sunday. Sunday could still end up a decent day well inland (say from the Connecticut Valley westward), but the closer you are to the coast, the more likely you’ll experience east to northeast winds, possibly some drizzle and/or fog, and temperatures in the 50s (or even 40s) during the afternoon. Beyond that, there are some signals that temperatures could be on the warm side for at least a few days next week.

The latest 8-14 day outlook, valid for next week, has temperatures near to a little above normal around here. Image provided by the Climate Prediction Center

Monday: Morning clouds and showers, then becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 57-64.

Monday night: Clearing. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Morning sunshine, afternoon clouds, possibly a sprinkle, breezy. High 49-56.

Tuesday night: Clear and chilly. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, still breezy. High 52-59.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, but some high clouds may start to stream in during the afternoon. High 59-66.

Friday: Morning showers, then becoming partly sunny, breezy, and warm. High 70-77, cooler right along the South Coast, and possibly along the NH Seacoast.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 64-71, cooler along the coast.

Sunday: Partly sunny, low clouds, drizzle, and fog possible along the coast. High 50-57 along the coast, 58-65 inland.

Weekly Outlook: May 4-10, 2020

The weather really was fantastic this weekend, wasn’t it? Spring has finally arrived! Hope you enjoyed it, because you won’t see it again for a while, certainly not this week.

Temperatures reached the 70s away from the South Coast on Sunday, with a few spots reaching 80 for the 1st time this year. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll start the week off with what will probably be the best day of the week, certainly the warmest. It won’t be as warm as the weekend, but temperatures will still be close to normal for early May. The problem is, we’ll have a cold front moving through, with some clouds, and maybe a shower or two. Gusty northwest winds behind the front will usher some cooler air into the region. Winds will start to die down on Tuesday as high pressure builds in, but temperatures will be noticeably cooler.

Clouds return on Wednesday as another system moves into the Mid-Atlantic states. This system will pass south of the region Wednesday night into early Thursday, likely producing some showers. Another shot of colder air settles in behind that system as an upper-level low pressure area drops southward from Canada. This sets us up for a very chilly end of the week and weekend.

Some frost is possible in the suburbs Saturday morning. Keep that in mind if you’ve got some things planted outside already. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As the upper-level low settles in, a weak disturbance rotating around it will move in on Friday, with plenty of clouds, a few showers, and unseasonably chilly temperatures. Another low pressure area will then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast and head northeastward, passing south and east of the region late Saturday into early Sunday. This will bring in some more rain, but that might not be all. The airmass moving in for the weekend is one that is more typical of early March than early May. Daytime highs may not reach 50, and the rain will make it feel that much worse. At night, as temperatures drop, there’s even a chance that some wet snow could mix in, especially across the hills of Worcester County and Northern Rhode Island. While this is highly unusual, it is not unprecedented. On May 9, 1977, a late-season storm produced snow across a large portion of southern New England, away from the coastline, with 1-2 feet in the hills of Worcester County. We also had up to 1″ of snow in some of the northwestern suburbs of Boston on May 18, 2002.

A late-season storm brought heavy snow to the region on May 9, 1977. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

The system pulls away early Sunday, then high pressure builds back in with clearing and chilly conditions for Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately, it looks like the cool pattern will continue into the following week. In fact, we may not see any sustained warmth until we get past the middle of May. We know that’s not what you want to hear, but it’s how we see things right now.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, chance for a few showers, favoring the South Coast in the morning. High 60-67.

Monday night: Clearing, breezy. Low 34-41.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 52-59.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers develop at night. High 53-60, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, especially during the morning. High 50-57, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Early sun, then some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 52-59.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the hills of Worcester County and northern Rhode Island. High 45-52.

Sunday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 46-53.

Weekly Outlook: April 27-May 3, 2020

Here we are in the final days of April, and we’re still talking about snow. Don’t worry, it won’t cause any problems but the fact remains that it’s still in the forecast. Much of the rest of the week won’t be a lot better.

The week starts off with an absolutely miserable day on Monday. Low pressure will be meandering around south of New England, keeping us cloudy, cool, and rather wet, with occasional showers. Across the hills from Worcester County into the Monadnocks, there will likely be some flakes flying, especially in the morning and again late in the day. Temperatures will likely stay in the upper 30s and 40s all day today, which is 20-25 degrees below normal for late April. By Monday night the storm will start to slowly pull away, but things won’t improve that quickly. In fact, Monday night will be even more miserable, as the lingering showers may mix with or change over to wet snow across much of southern New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts. There may be enough to coat the grass in some spots, but this shouldn’t be a big deal.

High temperatures are in the lower 60s on average at the end of April around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The low finally pulls away on Tuesday, but with an upper-level low crossing the Northeast, we’ll still have plenty of clouds, a few showers, and some cool temperatures. We’ll finally see some clearing Tuesday night, and then as Wednesday begins, the sun should make a return. It won’t last too long, as clouds will start to stream back in during the afternoon as yet another storm system heads toward the region.

Even though April has been fairly wet, precipitation is still below normal since the start of the year across much of the Northeast. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Thursday is looking like a very wet day as low pressure heads into the Great Lakes. It’s also looking quite breezy, but it’s not looking as cold as today. We could be looking at wind gusts of 40-50 mph once again. A southerly flow ahead of the storm will bring plenty of moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas, so we could be looking at quite a bit of rain later on Thursday into Thursday night. This isn’t a bad thing, as we still need more rain, despite the already wet month of April. Rain should taper off late Thursday night, but another upper-level low moves through on Friday, so we’re looking at more clouds, and likely some more showers.

We could be looking at some very heavy rainfall totals for Thursday into Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

This brings us to next weekend. Finally, we’ll see some improvement. High pressure builds in on Saturday, so we’ll see sunshine and milder temperatures. We’ll still be under the influence of the upper-level low, so some clouds will pop up, and there’s a slight chance for another shower. Sunday is the tricky day. We’ll have a cold front approaching the region, likely producing some showers. However, ahead of the front, if we can get some sunshine, temperatures could make a run at 70 degrees.

70 on Sunday? It’s a possibility. We’ll see what changes as the week goes on. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with occasional showers, possibly mixed with some wet snowflakes across the hills early in the day and again late in the day. High 37-44.

Monday night: Cloudy with a few rain or snow showers possible. Low 31-38.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a few lingering showers along the coastline early, a few sunny breaks are possible late in the day. High 45-52.

Tuesday night: Clearing. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, clouds start to filter back in during the afternoon. High 50-57, a little cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Cloudy and windy with rain developing, possibly heavy at times late in the day and at night. High 49-56.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with steady rain ending early, but a few showers may pop up in the afternoon, a few sunny breaks are also possible. High 58-65.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 59-66.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, showers possible during the afternoon. High 62-69, cooler right along the coast.

If you’re curious as to when the warmer weather will be here to stay, it looks like this pattern will continue through the 1st 2 weeks of May. Beyond that, things should start to improve, with a pattern change possibly bringing us temperatures that are near to above normal for the latter half of May.

Weekly Outlook: April 20-26, 2020

Today was supposed to be our unofficial start to Spring. Patriots Day is when we finally feel like Spring has arrived. Thousands of runners heading from Hopkinton to Boston. Sox fans having hot dogs and beer for breakfast with first pitch at 11:05am for the only morning game in the major leagues all season. Re-enactments of Paul Revere’s ride and the Battles of Lexington and Concord. Instead, it’s just another day with people stuck in their houses, but the weather wasn’t going to be that great to be outside anyway.

As far as we’re concerned, Patriots Day is the best day of the year. Image provided by the New York Times.

The week starts of with low pressure passing well south and east of New England. In fact, it’ll be far enough offshore that aside from a few showers across the Cape and the Islands, most of us will just have clouds and cool temperatures. Tuesday will be a different story. We’ll have some sunshine to start, but low pressure moving across southern Canada will drag a strong cold front across the region. As that front moves into the region showers and some thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and into the evening. We’re not expecting widespread severe weather like they had along the Gulf Coast, but a few storms could become strong, with gusty winds, heavy downpours, and possibly some small hail.

There is a marginal risk for some severe weather on Tuesday across most of the region. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Behind the front, skies quickly clear out Tuesday night, but strong northwest winds will usher much cooler air into the region. It will remain breezy and chilly on Wednesday as an upper-level low crosses the region, with a few sprinkles possible. High pressure then builds in for Thursday with milder conditions, but clouds will start to move as another storm system heads toward the region.

Wednesday looks like it will be a frosty morning, so if you’ve got any tender vegetation outside, you may want to take care of it. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Low pressure will move out the Tennessee Valley then re-develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday night, heading northeastward on Friday. This is where the uncertainty starts to increase. There are some models that show the system staying just a bit too far south, with most of the rain confined to the South Coast or offshore. Other models have showers move in Thursday night, with rain, possibly heavy at times through the day on Friday, ending late in the day. One model even has the rain change to snow before ending across parts of southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. At this point, any of these solutions could be valid. For now, we’re going somewhere in the middle, with Friday being a rather wet day, with the heaviest rain south of the Mass Pike.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty among the models in regards to Friday’s forecast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ll dry out a bit on Saturday, but another system quickly follows, but again, there’s questions about the timing and evolution of that system. It looks like we’ll have some showers come through Saturday night, then a stronger coastal storm may move in for somewhere around Sunday and/or Monday. Next Sunday could be a rainy and possibly windy day, but it’s still a little early to be sure. Then again, it’s not like most of us would have any outdoor plans anyway.

Monday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers across the Outer Cape and Islands. High 48-55, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Skies clear out. Low 30-37.

Tuesday: Sunny during the morning, then clouds return, showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon, becoming breezy. High 51-58.

Tuesday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, then clearing, windy, and colder. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 41-48.

Thursday: Sunshine gradually fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. High 51-58.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely, especially south of the Mass Pike where some heavier rain is possible. High 48-55, coolest along the coast.

Saturday: Some morning sun, then clouds return, breezy. High 54-61, cooler along the coast.

Sunday: Cloudy with more rain possible. High 48-55.

Weekly Outlook: April 13-19, 2020

We’ve got quite the storm coming in to start the week, but it’s not the only one that may impact us before the week is out.

The high-resolution NAM model depicts the progression of rain across the region with some embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Low pressure will head through the Great Lakes and into Ontario today, bringing some very adverse weather into the region. We’ll have periods of rain, possibly heavy at times throughout the day, with some thunderstorms possible as well. The biggest threat will be the wind. High Wind Warnings have been posted for nearly all of Southern New England, with Wind Advisories for southern portions of New Hampshire and Maine. Sustained southerly winds of 25-35 mph are likely, with gusts to 50 mph or more common, especially in southern New England. This would be enough to take down some trees and power lines, but it could end up being worse. Not far above the surface, winds will be screaming out of the south at 90-100 mph. We’ll have some relatively stable air below that, keeping those winds aloft from getting down to the surface for the most part. However, some of the heavier downpours, especially in thunderstorms, will help bring some of those strong winds down during the afternoon, which could result in wind gusts of 60-70 mph or more, especially across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Wind gusts could exceed 60 mph across much of the region this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A cold front moves through during the evening, bringing an end to the rain, and allowing winds to rapidly diminish at night as they shift into the west. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with some sunshine, but it will remain breezy as Monday’s storm moves into northern Quebec. Clouds come right back in Tuesday night as low pressure rides along a front stalled out south of New England. It looks like this system will remain fairly far to the south, with the best chance for any shower activity across the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Another weak disturbance may bring in a few showers on Thursday. High pressure then builds in for Friday and the weekend, but we’ll have to keep our eyes on a couple of systems that look like they’ll stay south of the region right now.

Monday: Windy with rain, heavy at times, possibly some thunderstorms. High 56-63.

Monday night: Rain ending in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy with diminishing winds. Low 37-44.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 51-58.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with a few showers possible along the South Coast and across Cape Cod. High 45-52.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a few showers. High 43-50.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 45-52.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 48-55.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 52-59.

Weekly Outlook: April 6-12, 2020

Another week when you’re stuck in the house, and for at least a few days this week, that might not be a bad thing.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, which will result in a pair of very nice days for Monday and Tuesday. Monday will feature sunshine, mild temperatures and gusty winds, while Tuesday will feature less wind, but a little more cloud cover in the afternoon, as well as a seabreeze along the coast. The clouds will be streaming in ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the Great Lakes. A backdoor cold front will slip down the coastline Tuesday night and that low pressure area will ride along it. It will bring in some rain Wednesday morning, along with some cooler weather.

Temperatures could be quite mild this afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While the rain will end Wednesday morning as low pressure pulls away, Wednesday will remain cloudy and chilly thanks to a northeast flow off the Atlantic. Another system quickly follows on Thursday, with more rain likely, possibly even a few wet snowflakes, especially across southern New Hampshire and some of the hilly terrain in central Massachusetts. The rain ends as the system pulls away Thursday night, but an upper-level low pressure area will remain nearby, keeping the region rather cool for the weekend. It will also keep clouds around, and possibly a few showers, especially on Friday. A storm system may bring in some rain on Sunday, but at this time, it looks like it may hold off until Monday, so we’ll keep the forecast dry for now (not that you can really go out and do anything right now).

Thursday’s storm system may produce some gusty winds across much of the region. I age provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds, breezy. High 56-63.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 57-64.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing after midnight. Low 35-42.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, showers ending in the morning. High 44-51.

Thursday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain likely, ending in the evening. Some wet snow may mix in across some of the hilly terrain. High 45-52.

Friday: Some morning sun, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 45-52.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 45-52.

Sunday: Morning sunshine, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 47-54.

Weekly Outlook: March 30-April 5, 2020

It’s probably a good thing that most of us don’t have anywhere to go this week, since the weather is going to be on the dreary side.

Rainfall has been well below normal across the Northeast this year, so we need all the rain that we can get right now. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The low pressure system that produced last night’s thunderstorms is moving away, but another system will pass to the north today, dragging a cold front across the region. At the same time, an upper-level low pressure system will move across the region. Add those up and we’ll have plenty of clouds and some showers. Showers and drizzle will linger into the evening, and as cooler air settles in, we could even see some wet snow mix in, especially across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts.

Rain may change to wet snow before ending across the region late tonight and early Tuesday. Little to no accumulation is expected. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

That upper-level low moves offshore on Tuesday, but we’ll be stuck with northeast winds, resulting in plenty of clouds, some drizzle, maybe a few showers, and cool conditions. That upper-level low will start to drift back westward Tuesday night into Wednesday, keeping us trapped in the drizzle, fog, and cool weather. In one sense, this is a good thing, as a storm system will be moving off the Carolina coastline. With the upper-level low up here, it will steer that system well offshore, but that doesn’t mean it won’t have any impact. It just won’t be a nor’easter. Instead, as it passes well south and east, a trough of low pressure will extend northwestward from it, back into New England. This will bring in more clouds and a better chance of showers for Thursday into Friday, especially along the coast, where winds may also be quite gusty at times.

Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible Friday morning, especially along the coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The low finally pulls away from the region later on Friday, resulting in some drier weather finally moving in for Saturday, along with milder conditions as high pressure builds into the Northeast. Sunday looks to be milder as well, but a cold front will start to move in by late in the day, with some more showers possible.

Monday: Plenty of clouds, maybe a few glimpses of sunshine along with some spotty drizzle. Showers may develop in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers possibly mixing with some wet snow before ending. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Clouds and some sunny breaks. High 39-46.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some low clouds and drizzle, especially along the coast. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine. High 42-49, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Cloudy with showers becoming likely. High 44-51, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, especially along the coast, showers gradually ending. High 45-52, coolest along the coast

Saturday: Low clouds and fog early, especially near the coast, then that big bright thing in the sky returns. High 45-52, coolest along the coast.

Sunday: Morning sunshine, then clouds come back in the afternoon. Showers are possible late in the day. High 48-55.

Weekly Outlook: March 23-29, 2020

We’ve finally made it to Spring, so naturally, we’re expecting some snow. Look on the bright side – for many of you, it won’t have any impact on your commute!

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches/Warnings are in effect for parts of the area today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather

Clouds will stream into the region this morning as low pressure starts to take shape off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This system will strengthen as it heads northeastward, passing south and east of Nantucket early Tuesday. Ahead of it, we could see some flurries or snow showers develop late this morning thanks to an onshore flow, but the steadier precipitation associated with the storm arrives during the mid-to-late afternoon hours. There will be some dry air in place, so as the atmosphere moistens up, it will allow temperatures to drop, so we’ll see the precipitation start off as snow for most, with rain across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Temperatures will likely be near or above freezing, so a quick change to rain is expected across much of eastern Massachusetts. The changeover should take place during the evening across the Merrimack Valley and New Hampshire Seacoast, and by midnight across the rest of southern New Hampshire. This will be a fast-moving storm, so everything should wind down before midnight. Even this close to the storm, we’ve got some significant discrepancies among the models as the how much snow to expect. There are still some models forecasting significant accumulations for parts of the area, and then there’s others like the GFS, playing the part of Alfred E. Neuman.

This pretty much sums up the GFS forecast for today’s storm.

As for how much we’re expecting, we’ll get to that in a second. There are some facts both good and bad that go into that forecast, that we’d like to explain.
1. Temperatures will be right around freezing in many places, so what does fall as snow will be wet snow.
2. Elevation will play a role in amounts, as higher elevations should receive more snow, as they’ll be a bit colder.
3. Ground temperatures, especially pavement temperatures, are getting fairly mild now, so accumulations will be more likely on grassy surfaces.
4. The initial burst of snow will fall during the daytime. With the higher sun angle, that’ll make it a little tougher to accumulate as well. However, once it gets dark out, that isn’t a factor.
5. The closer you are to the ocean, the quicker precipitation will change to rain.

So, having said all that, here’s our forecast:
Southeastern Massachusetts/Southern Rhode Island – Zip, Zero, Nada
I-95 Belt (Boston-Providence) – A few flakes
Metro West/North Shore/Northern Rhode Island – An inch or so
Merrimack Valley/New Hampshire Seacoast – 1-2 inches
Southern New Hampshire (Nashua/Manchester/Concord) – 1-3 inches, maybe 4″ in a few spots

The jackpot will be from the Worcester Hills into the Monadnocks, where some places could see as much as 4-8 inches.

While not identical to our forecast, the National Weather Service model blend forecast is similar to ours. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

So, the storm pulls away and skies clear out on Tuesday. With sunshine, temperatures should get well into the 40s, maybe even some low 50s. So, you probably won’t even need to shovel, not that you really can go anywhere. The nice weather doesn’t last long as another system quickly follows for later Wednesday into early Thursday. This system will likely take a similar track to today’s storm, but the atmosphere will be a bit warmer, so this should be mainly rain, with some wet snow at the start across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley.

High pressure builds back for Thursday into early Friday with drier conditions. We may be looking at yet another storm bringing in some rain on Saturday before drier weather returns on Sunday

We didn’t have a St. Patrick’s Day parade, so how about a parade of low pressure systems this week? Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy with snow developing in the afternoon, except rain across southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island. High 3542.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with snow changing to rain from southeast to northwest before ending. Low 31-38.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 47-54.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, clouds move back in overnight. Low 30-37.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely late in the day and at night, possibly mixed with some wet snow, mainly across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. High 40-47.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers ending early, some sun may develop in the afternoon. High 43-50.

Friday: A sunny start, then clouds return, breezy. High 49-56.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 47-54.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 51-58.

Weekly Outlook: March 16-22, 2020

While everything around comes to a grinding halt, the weather does not, which means that here at StormHQ, The Show Must Go On. This week, that will be a variety show.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, so we’ll have a sunny but rather chilly Monday. The dry weather won’t last much longer though, as the high moves offshore and a disturbance moves into the Great Lakes. This will bring some precipitation in for Tuesday. While most of us will just see some rain, there could be some wet snow mixed in at that start Tuesday morning across southern New Hampshire. We’re not expecting any accumulation, and despite what this winter has been like, this is a fairly normal occurrence in mid-March. The rain ends late in the day and high pressure builds back in with sunshine and seasonable conditions returning for Wednesday.

While today is on the chilly side, the first 2 weeks of March are among the Top 5 warmest on record for the region. Image provided by the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

The latter half of the week isn’t looking that great right now. We’re not expecting any big storms, but a series of smaller ones. The first one moves in for Wednesday night and Thursday. With some cold air in place, this one may start as snow for much of the area (except southern areas), but should change over to rain during the morning. If there’s any accumulation (and it is a possibility this time), it will be most likely across grassy areas and at elevation. Would we be surprised if we end up with some coatings from southern New Hampshire into the northern and western suburbs of Boston? Of course not. In fact, one model shows the potential for a lot more than just coatings. if the trend continues that way, we’ll do a special update later in the week.

There’s still a wide variety of model solutions for Thursday morning, some some snow is possible. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The rain ends during the Thursday evening, but another storm quickly follows. This one will move across the Great Lakes, with significantly milder air expected on Friday. Of course, it will be accompanied by rain, but it’s not like you can do much to head out an enjoy it anyway, right? The rain ends Friday night as a cold front moves through, then high pressure builds in next weekend with sunshine and colder weather once again.

Friday could be a very mild day despite cloudcover and some showers. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine fades behind increasing and thickening afternoon clouds. High 34-41.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 26-33, but temperatures may hold steady or drift up a few degrees after midnight.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers likely, possibly starting as some wet snow across southern New Hampshire. High 44-51.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Sunshine gives way to afternoon clouds again, snow develops late at night, except rain along the South Coast. High 43-50.

Thursday: Cloudy with snow changing to rain, ending by evening. Some accumulation is possible, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 43-50.

Friday: Cloudy, breezy, and quite mild with showers redeveloping. High 62-69.

Saturday: A cloudy start, then skies become mostly sunny, breezy. High 43-50.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 36-43.