Weekly Outlook: June 7-13, 2021

The heat is definitely on, and will remain on for a few more days.

Heat Advisories are in effect for parts of the Northeast today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure remains anchored offshore, with southwesterly winds pumping hot and humid air into the region for the next few days. Today should be the hottest of the days, but humidity levels will be on the rise for Tuesday and Wednesday. A few widely scattered showers are possible this afternoon and evening, but the most of the activity should stay west of us. We’ll have a better chance at showers and thunderstorms developing on Tuesday, but Wednesday looks like the best chance overall as a cold front approaches the region. When that cold front moves through will have a large impact on the temperatures across the area. Right now, it looks like the front holds off until Wednesday night, so another very warm to hot and humid day is expected, but an earlier arrival would result in a much cooler afternoon, especially along the coast.

Away from the South Coast it’s going to be quite toasty today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in for Thursday with much drier and cooler conditions. Beyond that, things get a little uncertain. That front likely stalls out just south of the region, but how far south is yet to be determined. Waves of low pressure may ride along the front, with some showers accompanying these waves, but again, if the front stalls out too far to the south, these waves will have little to no impact here. Some models show the potential for Friday to be quite chilly and wet. We’re not so sure that’ll be the case, but we’re not completely ruling it out yet either. By late Saturday or Sunday, another system may approach with another round of showers possible.

At least one model shows another chilly and wet day coming up on Friday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 90-97, cooler along the South Coast.

Monday night: Partly cloudy, slight chance for a shower during the evening. Low 66-73, cooler along the South Coast.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. High 86-93, cooler along the South Coast.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers during the evening, some patchy fog may develop along the South Coast. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, a few showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 83-90, cooler along the South Coast.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82, cooler along the coast.

Friday: More clouds than sun with some showers possible. High 68-75.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 68-75.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 71-78.

Weekly Outlook: May 31 – June 6, 2021

After an utterly craptastic weekend, things will improve this week. That doesn’t mean it’ll be sunny and warm the entire time (certainly not at night), but it’ll be a lot better than that past few days.

The improvement starts today as low pressure pulls away from the region. Any lingering showers end this morning, then we start to see some clearing this afternoon. It also should start to turn milder today (because during late May it really couldn’t be too much cooler than the past few days). As we flip the calendar to June on Tuesday, high pressure builds in with drier and more seasonable conditions. That will certainly be a welcome change from the past few days.

Much of the region received 2-4 inches of rain over the weekend. Image provided by NOAA.

As we get to the latter half of the week, another cold front will approach, with some showers and possibly thunderstorms for Thursday into Friday. Neither day should be a washout, and it won’t be anywhere near as chilly as the past few days were, but neither day is looking like a beach day. As we get into next weekend we will have some beach days, as it will really start to feel like summer. A Bermuda high will set up offshore, pumping warm and humid air into the region. Temperatures should get well into the 80s in most spots, with some lower 90s possible, especially on Sunday. Longer-range forecasts show the potential for the hot and humid air to remain in place for much of next week as well. Yes, it might finally be time to put away the sweatshirts for the summer.

At least one model is showing the potential for hot weather for much of next week. Images provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Any lingering showers end in the morning, some sunny breaks develop in the afternoon. High 56-63.

Monday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 46-53.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 72-79.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 75-82, coolest on the South Coast.

Thursday: More clouds than sun, breezy, humid, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day and at night. High 73-80, coolest on the South Coast.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and humid with more showers and thunderstorms possible. High 74-81, coolest on the South Coast.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 80-87, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds, becoming humid. High 83-90, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Weekly Outlook: May 24-31, 2021

Temperatures will be riding the rollercoaster this week, but in general, we’ll be on the dry and cool side much of the time.

High pressure builds in today with temperatures that are not only significantly cooler than what we had over the weekend, but below normal for late May. Despite plenty of sunshine, temperatures will only be in the 60s to lower 70s today, with the coolest readings along the coast, thanks to a seabreeze off the still-cool Atlantic. After a chilly night tonight, temperatures will start to moderate on Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore and winds become southwesterly.

Water temperatures are still in the 50s to lower 60s across the area, Images provided by Rutgers University Coastal Ocean Observation Lab.

Low pressure will head into southeastern Canada on Wednesday, dragging a warm front across the region early in the day. This will result in a return of heat and humidity. A few showers or storms could accompany the warm front, but the temperatures will be the big story, as most of us will get well into the 80s once again, with lower (perhaps middle) 90s possible. The heat won’t last long though, as a cold front will swing through the region Wednesday evening or night, with some showers and thunderstorms likely ahead of it.

Wednesday is looking like another hot day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in behind the front on Thursday with drier and cooler conditions. This brings us to the Memorial Day Weekend. There is still some uncertainty among the models as to what we can expect next weekend. The models are in decent agreement that we’ll have high pressure centered over southeastern Canada while low pressure moves out of the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic states before spending much of the weekend south of New England while only slowly drifting eastward. They mostly agree that this means we’ll be on the cool side from Friday into Monday, with temperatures mainly below normal. What they don’t agree on is exactly where the low pressure system tracks, and whether it will send any precipitation our way (which also has an impact on the temperature forecast). For now, we’re going to lean on the dry side and be optimistic, but there is a chance that the long weekend could feel more like mid-Spring than the “traditional start of summer.” We should have a better handle on it for our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

There’s a pretty wide range in the model temperature forecasts for next weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 65-72, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 46-53.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 73-80, cooler along the South Coast.

Tuesday night: Variably cloudy, just a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Low 57-64.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, breezy, and humid, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day and at night. High 84-91, cooler along the South Coast.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 59-66.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 61-68.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 62-69.

Memorial Day: A mix of sun and clouds. High 64-71.

Weekly Outlook: May 17-23, 2021

It looks like it’s finally time to put away the winter gear and break out the summer gear, if you haven’t already. We’ve got some warm weather on the way for much of the upcoming week.

High pressure will be in control for the next several days. However, we’ll also have some weak upper-level disturbances moving across the region. What that means is that much like the past few days, we’ll start out with sunshine in the morning, then clouds develop, followed by some showers and thunderstorms, and once the sun sets, everything winds down and skies clear out. That’s what will happen today and to a lesser extent on Tuesday as well. High pressure becomes a little more dominant on Wednesday with sunshine and warmer weather. Temperatures may top 80 on Wednesday away from the coast.

At least one model thinks that Wednesday could be quite toasty. We’re not convinced it will be this warm, but it’s possible. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday is when we may see some changes start to take place. It still looks like a sunny and warm day well inland, but closer to the coast, a backdoor cold front may move in, ushering cooler air in to eastern parts of the region during the afternoon. That cooler air may hang around for Friday and Saturday as a disturbance moves across the region with more clouds and possibly some showers. Some of the models try to bring the warm air right back in on Friday and/or Saturday, but as we’ve learned the hard way over and over again, extended stretches of warm weather are hard to come by during Spring here in eastern New England. The ocean is still quite cool, and has a big impact on temperatures at this time of year. With this in mind, we’re going to lean cooler than some of the models (and nearly all of the talking heads on TV). Sunday should be warmer again as winds shift into the west ahead of a cold front, which may produce showers and thunderstorms.

Ocean temperatures are still mainly in the 50s around the region. Image provided by the Rutgers University Coastal Ocean Observation Lab.

Monday: Sunny to start, then clouds develop and some showers and thunderstorms pop-up. High 70-77, a little cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 48-55.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 73-80, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 51-58.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Early sun, then some clouds move in, a shower is possible late in the day. High 77-84, but temperatures may drop into the upper 50s or 60s during the afternoon, especially along the coast.

Friday: Intervals of sun and clouds. High 69-76, coolest along the coast.

Saturday: More clouds than sun with a chance for a few showers. High 68-75.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms are possible late in the day. High 74-81.

Weekly Outlook: May 10-16, 2021

We’ve got a fairly quiet week coming up for the first time in a while.

Low pressure pulls away from the region this morning, with rain coming to an end. We’ll see some clearing this afternoon, but an upper-level low pressure area will move through on Tuesday with more clouds and possibly a shower or two. High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with generally dry conditions and a warming trend.

Much of the region remains dry, and we’re not expecting much rainfall this week. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

The end of the week is a little uncertain at the moment, but it doesn’t look that bad. Another upper-level low will move into the Northeast, so we’ll have more cloudcover at times, with a few showers possible each afternoon. Most of these won’t be that heavy, and they shouldn’t be that widespread, so overall, the weekend shouldn’t be that bad. Temperatures should be on the mild side, likely near to above normal for mid-May.

Some mild weather could be on the way for next weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Showers end early, some afternoon sunny breaks. High 56-63.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40-47.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a shower or two, breezy. High 57-64.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 56-63.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 62-69.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for an afternoon shower. High 63-70.

Saturday: Partly sunny, showers possible during the afternoon. High 64-71.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers. High 64-71.

Weekly Outlook: May 3-9, 2021

This is definitely not shaping up to be a great week to be on vacation, but it is shaping up to be a decent week to put another dent in our developing drought.

Rainfall has been well below normal across the region for several months. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

A cold front moved through late yesterday, and it will stall out south of the region today. With the front nearby, we’ll have plenty of clouds around today, with temperatures that are much cooler than we had on Sunday. We could see a few breaks of sun, but in general, clouds will dominate. By late in the day, we’ll see some more showers moving in as a wave of low pressure rides along that frontal boundary. Those showers should come to an end Tuesday morning, but again, we’ll still have lots of clouds around, with temperatures possibly becoming quite cool behind that wave. Another wave will approach during Tuesday night and Wednesday. This wave may lift the front northward, allowing milder air to move back in to at least part of the region. That wave moves offshore on Wednesday, bringing an end to the rain and dragging the front much farther offshore. High pressure then builds in for Thursday with some sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures. Thursday will definitely be the pick of the week.

Temperatures will be near to below normal across most of the region this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As we head into the end of the week and the weekend, things get unsettled again. A coastal storm will likely impact the region, but the models don’t completely agree yet on what that impact will be, or exactly when it will be. Friday and/or Saturday will likely feature a period of rain, possibly heavy, some gusty winds, and cool temperatures. How much rain, how much wind, and how cool it will be are details that we don’t have a good handle on yet. In fact, at least one model shows the potential for some wet snow to mix in, especially over the hills of central New England. While this wouldn’t be unheard of this late in the season, we’re not expecting it to occur, though we’re not completely ruling it out either. As for next Sunday, the coastal storm should be out of the picture, but another system may be approaching from the west, as our active pattern is expected to continue for quite some time.

There is plenty of disagreement among the models in regard to a potential storm system late this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers possible late in the day. High 54-61 along the coast, 61-68 inland.

Monday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 44-51.

Tuesday: Showers end in the morning, remaining mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High 55-62, potentially turning much cooler during the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers redeveloping. Low 43-50.

Wednesday: Showers ending by midday, some sunny breaks are possible late in the day. High 58-65, cooler along the coast

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 58-65.

Friday: Cloudy with showers possible. High 53-60.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for showers. High 55-62.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 57-64.

Weekly Outlook: April 26 – May 2, 2021

In our Weekend Outlook, we mentioned the potential for a significant warmup later this week. Well, that was a bit premature.

We start the week off with high pressure building in behind yesterday’s storm system. We’ll still have breezy conditions in the wake of the system, especially during the morning and early afternoon. With an upper-level low pressure area also moving across the Northeast, some clouds may pop up during the afternoon as well. As the upper low pulls away on Tuesday we’ll have some sunshine, less wind, and milder temperatures.

Wind gusts of 30 mph or higher are possible today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A warm front moves into the region late Tuesday night, with some showers and possibly a thunderstorm accompanying it. This sets up a very mild day on Wednesday, with much of the region getting well into the 70s, and some 80-degree readings possible well inland. The warmth won’t last long though, as a cold front will be approaching the region later in the day, producing another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms.

Wednesday looks like it will be the warmest day of the week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

After that, things get a little complicated, as the models don’t agree on exactly how the pattern evolves. That cold front stalls out near or just south of the region Wednesday night. Another wave of low pressure rides along that front, bringing in another round of showers on Thursday. Will that wave lift the front back through as a warm front or not? That’s a critical question for the temperature forecast. The showers look like they will linger into Friday with mild temperatures before a stronger cold front moves through late in the day. Saturday looks to be drier and cooler with high pressure building in, but another upper-level low moves through, with more clouds and possibly a shower or two. Sunday looks milder as high pressure moves offshore and a southwesterly flow redevelops. However, another system could be approaching the region from the west. Whether the shower activity ahead of that system arrives late in the day Sunday or on Monday is a detail that can’t be resolved this far out.

Temperatures on Thursday will be highly dependent on where the front is located. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 53-60.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 63-70.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible, maybe even a rumble of thunder. Low 43-50.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day and into the evening. High 69-76, cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely. High 56-63.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with more showers. High 59-66.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 56-63.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a few late-day showers. High 57-64.

Weekly Outlook: April 19-25, 2021

It’s Patriots Day in Massachusetts, and although the Marathon won’t be held until October, there’s still plenty going on today, and the weather should cooperate for the most part.

The day will start off with some sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures, but an upper-level disturbance will cross the Northeast today, allowing for some clouds, and probably a few showers, maybe even a thunderstorm, this afternoon. They shouldn’t be widespread, nor heavy, but given that we still have a significant rainfall deficit, every little bit helps. A cold front will move through on Tuesday, but with little fanfare aside from some clouds and possibly a shower or two. Ahead of it, temperatures will be quite mild, possibly topping 70 in some locations. That front will stall out near or just south of the South Coast Tuesday night, then lift back northward as a warm front on Wednesday as low pressure passes north and west of the region. With low pressure to our northwest, it’ll be quite mild again, but another cold front will approach from the west, producing another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures could reach 70 in many areas on Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Behind that front, high pressure builds in with much cooler conditions on Thursday and to a lesser extent on Friday. A few weak upper-level disturbances will also be moving through with some clouds at times, but little precipitation other than a stray shower. Next weekend looks unsettled, but the details are still a little fuzzy. A period of rain or showers and cool temperatures appears likely at some point, but will it be late Saturday and Saturday night as one model shows, or on Sunday as a different one indicates? We should have a better handle on that when we do our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Year-to-date rainfall totals are running 4-6 inches below normal across much of the region. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Monday: Early sun, then clouds develop, with a few showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. High 61-68, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, just a slight chance for a late-day shower. High 64-71.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 41-48.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy with showers likely, possibly a thunderstorm, ending in the evening. High 59-66.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with a slight chance for a shower, windy and much cooler. High 43-50.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy. High 53-60.

Saturday: Early sun, then clouds return with showers possible late in the day and at night. High 60-67.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of rain. High 53-60.

Weekend Outlook: April 16-19, 2021

It’s not April 1, and this isn’t a joke – there’s snow in forecast for parts of our area.

Low pressure is moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon while an upper-level low pressure area moves in from the west. The upper-level low will draw the surface low northward towards southeastern New England while it intensifies. Rain is spreading across the region this afternoon, and it will become steadier and heavier tonight as the low moves up the coast. With the upper-level low moving in, we’ll have some very cold air aloft. As the rain becomes heavier, it will pull the cold air down from above, a process called “dynamic cooling”. As this occurs Friday morning, we’ll see the rain change over to snow across the hills from northwestern Rhode Island and central Massachusetts into southwestern New Hampshire. Some wet snow may mix in across the lower elevations of southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts as well but we’re not expecting much, if any, accumulation, and what does accumulate will be mainly on grassy surfaces because the pavement is too warm, and air temperatures won’t drop below freezing. It’ll be a different story across the hills from Worcester County into the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire, where several inches may accumulate. Even heavier snow is possible for the Berkshires and the Green Mountains of Vermont. We should note that there are some models that are forecasting accumulating snow, and in some cases quite a bit of it, across most of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. While we can’t completely rule out this scenario, we’re not expecting it to occur.

Most of us won’t see much, if any, snow from this system. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The surface low will pass near or over Cape Cod or southeastern Massachusetts Friday afternoon, allowing any mixed precipitation to change back to all rain and milder air moves in. The rain will taper off to showers in the afternoon, but the showers may not completely end until early Saturday as the system slowly starts to move away. Given the recent lack of rainfall, we’re starting to see drought conditions develop. With 1-2 inches of rain expected from this storm, we’ll help put a nice dent in that developing drought.

Much-needed rain is expected over the next 48 hours. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Saturday won’t be quite as chilly as Friday, but we probably won’t see much sunshine either as the system only slowly moves away. High pressure starts to build in on Sunday with more clearing and milder temperatures. However, an upper-level disturbance will be moving through, so a couple of pop-up showers can’t be ruled out. Patriots Day on Monday is shaping up to be a nice Spring day with partly sunny skies and mild temperatures, but again, a pop-up shower can’t be ruled out as another weak upper-level disturbance crosses the region.

Monday looks to be a mild day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, changing to snow across the hills from northwestern Rhode Island and central Massachusetts into southwestern New Hampshire, breezy. Low 33-40.

Friday: Windy with rain mixed with snow at times in the morning, tapering off to showers during the afternoon. High 37-44, possibly a little warmer south of Boston.

Friday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers ending. Low 33-40.

Saturday: Plenty of clouds, possibly a few showers near the coast, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon. High 44-51.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 32-39.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for a shower. High 49-56.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 33-40.

Monday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 56-63.

Weekly Outlook: April 12-18, 2021

One of our colleagues called the current weather pattern a “quiet active pattern”, which is a very good way to describe the week ahead.

In the big picture, we’ve got an upper-level low pressure area in place for today into Tuesday before it moves out, but another one moves in for the end of the week and the start of the weekend. Looking a little closer, we’ve got some typical April weather, but since this is New England and not Florida, a lot of you probably won’t like it. Low pressure passes south of the region today into early Tuesday, with plenty of clouds around and a chilly east wind off the Atlantic. Some showers are possible, mainly today, but we’re not looking at widespread rainfall. Wednesday looks a little drier as high pressure tries to build in with some partial sunshine and mild temperatures.

Temperatures will average close to normal around here over the next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The end of the week isn’t looking pretty at this point. As that second upper-level low pressure area moves eastward on Thursday, a low pressure area will likely spin up at the surface near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As it gets caught up under the upper-level low, it will meander around near or just south of New England. The result will be chilly conditions, some gusty winds at times, and periods of rain from later Thursday into Saturday. But that’s not the entire story. With colder air aloft, we could see the rain change over to snow, with some accumulation in the higher terrain, such as the hills from northwestern Rhode Island into Worcester County and the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire. Could we see snow mix in at lower elevations? Sure, it’s possibility, but accumulations aren’t likely (though not impossible). Remember, it was this same weekend last year (April 17-18), when we had a storm drop 3-6″ of snow on the hills, with up to an inch of snow across the rest of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. We’ll obviously have a better handle on this situation when we do our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Models are showing the potential for snow, especially in the hills, at the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once the system pulls away, conditions will slowly improve over the weekend as high pressure starts to build in.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 44-51.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks. High 52-59, cooler along the coast.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 54-61, cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with showers developing, possibly changing to snow in the hills at night. High 49-56.

Friday: Windy with periods of rain, possibly mixed with snow at times, especially in the hills. High 35-42 north and west of Boston, 43-50 south of Boston.

Saturday: Cloudy with showers gradually ending. High 47-54.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 54-61, cooler along the coast.