Weekend Outlook: December 24-27, 2021

Could we actually have a White Christmas across the area? It’s certainly a possibility.

Clouds will thicken up tonight as a weak storm system moves toward the region. That system will spread some light snow across the area Friday morning. It won’t be a big deal, with most places receiving a coating to an inch or two of snow. If you do have to work Friday morning, the commute could be a little slippery. We’ll have some clearing in the afternoon, but temperatures will stay chilly, so much of the snow will remain on the ground. The “official” definition of a White Christmas is 1″ or more of snow on the ground at 7am. Will that happen? It could in some spots, but even if there’s not 1″, the grass should still be white for many of us.

We’re not expecting much snow Friday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Another system quickly approaches for Christmas Day into Sunday morning. This one looks a bit milder, with some rain likely during the afternoon, possibly starting as some freezing rain or sleet from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. The rain won’t be that heavy, but as the system passes by Saturday night, colder air will fill in behind it, with a chance to light snow possible, again, mainly in southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. Some minor accumulations are possible, but again, nothing major is likely. We’ll clear out again for Sunday afternoon into Monday as high pressure builds back in.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, light snow develops before daybreak. Low 14-21.

Christmas Eve: Light snow ends early, some afternoon sunny breaks. Snow accumulation a coating to perhaps 2 inches in spots. High 30-37.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Christmas Day: Cloudy with showers developing, possibly starting as some freezing drizzle or sleet from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. High 36-43.

Saturday night: Showers may change back to wet snow, mainly across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. Low 27-34.

Sunday: Rain or snow showers end early, some sunny breaks in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 33-40.

Weekend Outlook: December 17-20,2021

This shouldn’t be a surprise, since it’s mid-December, but it’s going to snow this weekend.

Temperatures are 15-25 degrees above normal this afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

After a mild day, a cold front will approach the region tonight, but only a few stray showers will accompany it. The front moves through early on Friday, but we’ll remain mild before a stronger push of colder air moves in late in the day as high pressure starts to build in across southern Canada. As we get to Saturday, low pressure will begin moving out of the Midwest and head towards New England, while a secondary area of low pressure develops south of New England. Exactly where this low tracks will help us determine how far north the warmer air will push, which is a key part of the forecast.

Where does the low track and how far north does the warm air penetrate? The models don’t agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Snow should develop across the region towards midday or a little thereafter. A very quick change to rain is expected across the South Coast, if it doesn’t start as rain there. The rain/snow line should quickly move northward during the rest of the afternoon and evening. The evening and overnight is where things get tricky. The warmer air likely only gets as far north as the Mass Pike or possibly Route 2. However, we’ll also have warmer air moving in aloft, which means a change to sleet or freezing rain is possible across northern Massachusetts and possibly southern New Hampshire, even if it doesn’t all change to plain rain. Any changeover will have a significant impact on snow amounts. As the low moves away early Sunday, a change back to snow is possible before everything winds down toward daybreak. High pressure then builds in with sunshine and cooler conditions for Sunday afternoon and Monday.

So, how much are we looking at? There are plenty of models out there showing a decent snowstorm, especially across the interior. We’re not buying it. We think they’re underestimating the mild air aloft. A quicker change to sleet and/or rain than what some of the models are showing seems more likely, especially the farther south and east you go. So, having said that, here’s our thinking:

Cape Cod/South Coast: A few flakes
Points south and east of Interstate-95: 1″ or less
Metro West/North Shore: 1-2″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 1-3″
Southern NH/Central MA: 3-5″
Central NH: 4-7″

The National Blend of Models is probably closest to our thinking for snowfall totals. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy, slight chance for a shower, some clearing late. Low 44-51.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy, high clouds start to stream back in late in the day. High 50-57.

Friday night: Increasing and thickening clouds. Low 28-35.

Saturday: Cloudy with snow developing during the afternoon, quickly changing to rain along the South Coast. High 35-42.

Saturday night: Light snow across southern New Hampshire, changing to sleet and freezing rain across northern Massachusetts, and plain rain elsewhere. Low 27-34.

Sunday: Rain or snow showers ending around daybreak, clearing in the afternoon. High 34-41.

Sunday night: Clear and colder. Low 12-19.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 27-34.

Weekend Outlook: December 10-13, 2021

The next few days will not feel like mid-December, but the pattern won’t exactly be quiet.

Normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll have a cool evening with high pressure in control, but clouds will be streaming in ahead of a warm front. As that front moves through overnight, temperatures will start to rise after midnight, and we could see a few flurries or sprinkles. Friday will be milder with plenty of clouds, but aside from a few stray sprinkles or showers, the day should remain dry. As low pressure heads into southern Canada, it will drag a strong cold front toward the region. Ahead of that front, we’ll have some showers developing Friday night, continuing off-and-on through Saturday. The day won’t be a washout, but it won’t be completely dry either. That’s not the big story for the day though. South to southwest winds will be quite gusty, sending even warmer air into the region. Many locations will likely top 60 degrees once again. The front moves through overnight, with showers ending by daybreak. Skies clear out for Sunday and Monday with high pressure building in, but temperatures will still be near to even above normal for mid-December.

Saturday looks very mild, especially during the afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a flurry or a sprinkle. Low 23-30 during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower. High 42-49.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing late at night. Low 29-36 during the evening, temperatures rise again overnight.

Saturday: Cloudy, windy, and mild with occasional showers. High 57-64.

Saturday night: Cloudy and windy with more showers, possibly a thunderstorm, ending late at night. Low 34-41.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny, still breezy in the morning. High 40-47.

Sunday night: Clear. Low 28-35.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. breezy at times. High 46-53.

Weekend Outlook: December 3-6, 2021

Although we’re in a fairly active pattern, we’re not expecting a lot to happen in terms of the weather over the next few days.

A cold front will move across the region tonight with a few showers accompanying it. It will bring an end to our brief mild spell, as Friday will be quite a bit cooler behind the front, with gusty northwest winds adding a little extra bite to the air. We should have plenty of sunshine at least, with high pressure building in. Another weak disturbance moves through on Saturday with some clouds and just a slight chance for a few flurries or sprinkles. After a little clearing Saturday night clouds will stream back in during the day on Sunday ahead of another frontal system. That system will bring in more showers on Monday, but it will be quite a bit milder, with some places possibly getting close to or over 60 degrees.

Monday has the potential to be a very mild day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Showers likely this evening, then skies start to clear out late at night, becoming breezy. Low 30-37.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy. High 38-45.

Friday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 19-26.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few flurries or sprinkles. High 36-43.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Sunday: Some sun early, then clouds stream back in. High 40-47.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing after midnight. Low 28-35, but temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Monday: Breezy and mild with some showers likely. High 54-61.

Thanksgiving Weekend Outlook: November 25-29, 2021

It’s coming. You know what we’re talking about. It’s that time of year. You’re not going to like it, but you’re going to have to deal with it. No, we’re not talking about the non-stop Black Friday sales ads or the constant barrage of holiday music. It’s something more insidious. That four-letter word most of you hate. It begins with the letter “S”. And it’s in this forecast.

Before we get to that, let’s talk about Thanksgiving. The high pressure area that provided us with chilly weather yesterday and today will slide offshore tonight and Thanksgiving Day, allowing milder air to start to move into the region. However, a strong cold front will also be approaching from the west. Thanksgiving will start off with some sunshine, but clouds will stream in and thicken up during the afternoon and evening. A few showers are likely Friday morning into early afternoon before the cold front finally moves offshore. High pressure then moves in for Saturday and Sunday with the chilly weather returning along with sunshine. By Sunday afternoon though, clouds will start to stream back into the region ahead of the next storm system.

Heading out early Saturday morning? Wind chills will only be in the teens. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A Saskatchewan Screamer (it’s not an Alberta Clipper, since it originates in Saskatchewan) will dive into the Northern Plains and across the Midwest over the weekend, and by Sunday night, it will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This much seems fairly certain. From here, there are a lot of things that we’re not terribly confident in, so we’ll give you our thoughts and best estimate right now, and will refine it this weekend, if need be. At this point, 1 of 3 things is likely to happen:

  1. The storm continues east-northeast, passing out to sea well to our south with minimal impact here.
  2. The storm turns more toward the northeast, bringing a period of light rain or snow here as it heads towards Atlantic Canada while strengthening.
  3. An approaching upper-level trough of low pressure captures the low, allowing it to hang around longer, and it brings a period of heavier snow and/or a wintry mix to the region, especially north and west of Boston.
Monday could be wet or white, or maybe even dry. The models aren’t sure yet and neither are we. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Depending on which forecast model you look at, any of these scenarios is possible. For now, we’re leaning towards scenario number 2. Precipitation should develop Sunday night and continue into Monday. It may start as rain for much of the region with snow north and west of Boston. Some sleet and/or freezing rain could mix in across the interior, with a change to all snow possible into Boston and points south as the system pulls away later on Monday. It’s WAY too early for any kind of estimate of accumulations, especially with the uncertainty in the forecast, but if (and that’s a big “if”) our thinking is in the ballpark, we’d be looking at the potential for a few inches north and west of Boston. There are some models predicting a very significant snowstorm, and you won’t have to look too hard on social media to find them, as all of the “weather weenies” are excited for the first potential “big” storm of the season. We prefer to deal with what we know, and not deal in hype. If this does look like it will materialize, we’ll have another blog post about it this weekend.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 22-29.

Thanksgiving: Morning sunshine, then clouds stream in. High 47-54.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 32-39.

Friday: Cloudy with some showers likely, mainly during the morning and early afternoon, becoming breezy in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy. Low 23-30.

Saturday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 34-41.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 20-27.

Sunday: Some early sun, then clouds return. High 35-42.

Sunday night: Cloudy with light snow or rain developing from southwest to northeast. Low 23-30.

Monday: Cloudy with a chance of snow or a wintry mix north and west of Boston, chance of rain, possibly mixed with a little wet snow south. High 32-39 north and west of Boston, 39-46 south of Boston.

Weekend Outlook: November 19-22, 2021

Hope you enjoyed the mild weather today, because it’ll be a distant memory by tomorrow.

Normal high temperatures in mid-November are within a degree or two of 50. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A cold front will move across the region tonight, bringing some showers with it, but it will also sweep our mild weather offshore and replace it with temperatures closer to normal for mid-November. An upper-level disturbance moves across the region on Friday with some clouds and maybe a shower, but with high pressure building in at the surface, it will turn drier and cooler. That high keeps us dry and cool on Saturday, but clouds will start streaming in late in the day ahead of the next storm system. A warm front moves through on Sunday, allowing temperatures to moderate again, but some showers or even a period of steady rain is likely Sunday night into Monday as another cold front approaches the region.

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 33-40.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy, but clouds may pop up during the afternoon. High 42-49.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 24-31.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to increase again late in the day. High 40-47.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 30-37.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds, showers may develop late in the day. High 50-57.

Sunday night: Periods of rain and showers, breezy. Low 42-49 in the evening, then temperatures rise a bit at night.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with showers ending. High 52-59.

Weekend Outlook: November 12-15, 2021

Our recent stretch of dry weather is coming to an end and temperatures are going to turn cooler. There’s also the potential that a few spots in the area could see some of that s-word on Monday. You know which word I’m talking about. It’s definitely November.

High pressure slides offshore tonight as a strong low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes. A frontal system well ahead of that low will approach the region on Friday. Showers will develop Friday morning, with a period of steady, and perhaps heavy, rain likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder as well. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the front will result in a mild day with many places topping 60 degrees. The front moves through in the evening, bringing an end to the rain, with skies clearing out overnight.

Most of the models are showing the potential for an inch or more of rain across parts of the region on Friday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Saturday starts off with some sunshine, but clouds quickly return. That low pressure system will move into southern Canada, but a disturbance rotating around it will bring in a few more showers Saturday night. Skies will clear out again behind that on Sunday, but much cooler air will start to settle in. We’re not done with that low pressure system though. Another disturbance will rotate around it Sunday night and Monday, and it will trigger another weak system that will bring in some more showers for Sunday night and Monday. With the cooler air in place, we could even see a few wet snowflakes mix in, especially across the hills from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire.

Temperatures may struggle to reach 50 on Sunday across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, some drizzle or a few showers may develop towards daybreak. Low 40-47 this evening, then temperatures may rise a little overnight.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely through early afternoon, becoming a steady and potential heavy rain for the mid-to-late afternoon hours. High 57-64.

Friday night: Showers end during the evening, followed by clearing after midnight. Low 37-44.

Saturday: Mostly sunny through midday, clouds start to move back in during the afternoon with showers possible by late in the day. High 54-61.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some showers likely during the evening, then clearing after midnight. Low 32-39.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, clouds return during the afternoon. High 45-52.

Sunday night: Cloudy with showers developing after midnight, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the interior hills. Low 33-40.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the interior hills. High 44-51.

Weekend Outlook: November 5-8, 2021

We’ve got a fairly easy forecast coming up for the next several days, so let’s get right to it.

High pressure will build in and keep the region dry and cool into the weekend, with some moderation expected by the end of the weekend and start of next week as the high slides offshore. There are only two potential flies in the ointment. We’ve got a low pressure area passing south and east of the region late tonight and Friday. It may pass close enough to spread a few showers into Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts, but the vast majority of the region will stay dry. Whether or not there are clouds (and/or some light rain), will have a big impact on temperatures. Areas north and west of Boston should radiate tonight, with lows dropping well into the 30s, perhaps even some 20s again. Across southeastern Massachusetts, clouds and possibly rain will keep temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. If the storm is farther offshore, then the clouds likely will be too, resulting in temperatures ending up a little cooler than what this forecast shows. Another system will pass offshore late Sunday night and Monday. This system looks to be even farther offshore, so it shouldn’t be much of a concern.

Temperatures could get back to 60 by Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers across Cape Cod. Low 28-35, except 36-43 across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts.

Friday: Chance for a shower across the Cape during the morning, otherwise skies gradually become partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Low 26-33.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 47-54.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 28-35.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 49-56.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 33-40.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny and milder. High 53-60.

Weekend Outlook: October 29-November 1, 2021

The weather will cooperate with cleanup operations from this week’s storm, but another one is lurking on the horizon. Luckily, this one won’t be as strong.

High pressure remains in control into Friday with mostly dry weather and diminishing winds. There will be plenty of cloudcover from Boston southward, as low-level moisture remains in place tonight, while areas north and west of Boston get rather chilly under clear skies. Clouds stream in on Friday ahead of the next storm system. That system will come at the region from the southwest, and not up the coast. It should pass north and west of the region on Saturday, resulting in much milder conditions. Winds may be a little gusty out of the southwest, but we’re talking about gusts of 20-30 mph, not the 75-95 mph we saw Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The main issue with this storm will be rainfall. Rain will develop early Saturday morning, and continue for much of the day. The rain will be heavy at times during the afternoon and evening, but should taper and end by daybreak Sunday. We’ll see some clearing on Sunday, but as an upper-level disturbance crosses the Northeast, clouds will return, and a few pop-up showers are possible. High pressure then builds in for Monday with dry and mild conditions.

Another 1-2 inches of rain is expected this weekend. Some models show even heavier amounts are possible. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy north and west of Boston, partly to mostly cloudy south of Boston. Low 33-40 north and west of Boston, 41-48 south.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 49-56.

Friday night: Cloudy with rain developing, mainly after midnight. Low 42-49.

Saturday: Breezy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. A rumble of thunder is possible, especially across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. High 57-64.

Saturday night: Rain gradually tapers off and ends. Low 48-55.

Sunday: Becoming partly sunny, chance for a shower or two during the afternoon. High 58-65.

Sunday night: Clearing. Low 43-50.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 57-64.

Weekend Outlook: October 22-25, 2021

It may be sunny and warm this afternoon, changes are coming, so enjoy it while you can.

Low pressure moving into southeastern Canada will send a cold front our way tonight. Ahead of it, a few showers are possible late tonight and early Friday, but the bulk of the rain with the system should stay well to our north and west. The cold front moves through on Friday, and although it will still be on the mild side, colder air will start to move in behind the front. High pressure settles in for the weekend with dry and much cooler conditions. Meanwhile, that cold front will be stalled out just south of New England, so even though most of us will be dry, we’ll still have some clouds around, especially the farther south you go. Could there be a shower or two across the Islands? Maybe, but it’s not a sure thing. We’ll also have an upper-level low pressure area passing north of the region. This will also generate some clouds as well, and possibly a pop-up shower or two each afternoon. Again, nothing to cancel plans over, but don’t be shocked if you see a few raindrops.

Temperatures at midday Saturday will be 10-18 degrees cooler compared to midday Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday is where things become less certain. An area of low pressure moving out of the Ohio Valley will ride eastward along our stalled out front. Will it pass close enough to spread some rain into the region or will the high pressure area push it far enough to the south that it doesn’t have any impact? The forecast models have been all over the place with this idea, but for now, we’re leaning toward the drier scenario, but will put the chance of showers in the forecast just to cover ourselves. The second half of next week is looking quite wet at this point, but we’ll worry about that Monday morning with our Weekly Outlook.

The models don’t agree on whether Monday will be wet or dry. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers after midnight. Low 54-61.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, any showers end early. High 66-73.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45-52.

Saturday: Partly sunny and cooler, slight chance for a shower. High 56-63.

Saturday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 37-44.

Sunday: Morning sunshine, clouds return in the afternoon. High 54-61.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers, especially south of Boston. Low 39-46.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers possible, mainly south of Boston. High 52-59.