What’s left of Tropical Storm Fred is dumping heavy rain on parts of the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, but there are still two active tropical systems in the Atlantic, and both could cause significant problems.

Hurricane Grace is the more immediate threat. As of early Wednesday afternoon, Grace was centered about 295 miles east of Tulum, Mexico, moving toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, with a Tropical Storm Warning for other portions of the Yucatan as well as the Cayman Islands.

Grace’s forecast is fairly straightforward. It should strengthen a bit more today and tonight before making landfall in the Yucatan early Thursday. It should weaken a bit over land, then move back into the Bay of Campeche late Thursday. It will likely strengthen again, likely regaining hurricane status before a second landfall in Mexico late Friday or early Saturday between Veracruz and Tampico. Strong winds, torrential rainfall that will lead to flooding and mudslides, and storm surge flooding are all expected across the region.

Grace produced heavy rain and flooding over the past several days from the Leeward Islands across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, into Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and parts of Cuba. Rainfall totals of up to 10 inches were observed in some areas. While winds haven’t been a huge factor thus far for much of the region, wind gusts exceeded 50 mph on Jamaica, with some gusts to near hurricane force reported in the Cayman Islands this morning as Grace pulled away.

While Grace is preparing to slam into the Yucatan, all eyes here in New England are focused on Tropical Storm Henri. As of early Wednesday afternoon, Henri was centered about 190 miles southwest of Bermuda, or 795 miles south-southeast of Nantucket, moving toward the west at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph. Some slow strengthening is expected, and Henri could become a hurricane over the next few days.

Henri’s future track is highly uncertain at this point. With a ridge of high pressure to the north and east, it should continue westward for the next day or so before it reaches the western edge of the ridge and begins to turn northward. At the same time, an upper-level low pressure area will begin to develop over the Great Lakes. These two features will combine to send Henri up the East Coast, but that’s where the uncertainty really begins. Some models have Henri continue moving around the ridge and turning northeastward, either heading out to sea or possibly impacting parts of Atlantic Canada. Some models have the upper low strengthen a bit more and the ridge build back in, allowing Henri to keep heading north, possibly even turning toward the northwest like Sandy did, which would result in landfall across New England or Long Island. Given that this is still around 4 days or so away from any potential impact, it is just too early to tell which scenario is more likely. Either way, residents of Southern New England should keep a close eye on Henri’s progress.

With the forecast as it is, and knowing how the media can be, we are issuing an Extreme Hype Watch for the region. An Extreme Hype Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for media hype of an event to reach extreme levels within the next 48-72 hours. If conditions warrant, a Hype Advisory or Extreme Hype Warning will be issued as the event draws nearer.

Tomorrow marks 30 years since Hurricane Bob made landfall near Newport, Rhode Island. The 30 years is the 2nd longest we’ve ever gone without a hurricane landfall in New England or Long Island.

• Since 1851, a hurricane has made landfall in New England or Long Island 18 times, an average of one every 9.4 years. The longest we’ve ever gone between hurricane landfalls is 38 years, between 1896 and 1934. It’s been 30 years since Bob, our 2nd longest drought on record. (Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.)
• Since 1851, 9 hurricanes of Category 2 intensity or stronger have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 18.9 years. The longest we’ve gone between hits by storms of that intensity is 69 years, between 1869 and 1938. We’re at 30 years since Bob, the last one to do so.
• Since 1851, New England/Long Island has had 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) make landfall – an unnamed storm in October of 1869, the infamous 1938 Long Island Express, and Hurricane Carol in 1954. That’s an average of 1 every 56.7 years, and the longest time between 2 major hurricanes is 69 years (1869-1938). We’re at 67 years since Carol. There are also 3 documented storms from before 1851 – The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, the 1815 New England Hurricane, and the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. That’s it. That changes the numbers to 6 in 386 years, or one every 64.3 years, with a longest drought of 180 years.

There is some history involving New England and the two current names, Grace and Henri. In 1991, Grace was a hurricane off the East Coast in late September. As it moved northward, it was absorbed by a much larger extratropical system which eventually started moving south and then southwest off the coast of New England. This became the “No-Name Halloween Storm”, or as the book and movie were later titled – ‘The Perfect Storm”. Grace was a new addition to the name list in 1991, as the previous “G” storm had its name retired. That storm was Gloria in 1985, which slammed into Long Island on September 27. As for Henri, it also hit New England in 1985, a few days before Gloria. Most people don’t remember it for two reasons. First, it was very weak – it weakened to a tropical depression right at landfall near Westerly, Rhode Island on September 24 and rapidly dissipated. It did not produce much rain or wind across the region. Second, all eyes were on the much more powerful Hurricane Gloria which was starting to move up the East Coast

There are now three active systems in the Atlantic and two more in the Pacific. All but one are a threat to land.

The most immediate threat is Tropical Storm Fred. After sputtering over Cuba this past weekend, Fred emerged into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and has become better organized. As of early Monday afternoon, Fred was centered about 35 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida, moving toward the north at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for parts of the Florida Gulf Coast. Fred may strengthen a little more before it makes landfall late this afternoon or evening. Once inland, it should rapidly weaken. The main threats from Fred are strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surge, along with the possibility of a few tornadoes.

Fred will produce 4-8 inches of rain across parts of Florida and southern Georgia, with some locally heavier amounts. As it moves inland and weakens, the moisture will start to interact with a frontal system, bringing heavy rain to parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic States, and the Appalachians. In these areas, rainfall totals of 3-6 inches and locally heavier will likely lead to flooding over the next few days.

While Fred heads for Florida, Grace may be starting to get its act together near Haiti Grace brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern Caribbean this weekend, but was very poorly organized. It looks a bit healthier this afternoon as it nears the south coast of Haiti. It was centered about 70 miles southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti early Monday afternoon, moving toward the west-northwest at 12 mph. It is still a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for parts of southern Cuba and the Cayman Islands, while Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Haiti, Jamaica, and parts of southern Cuba.

Grace is expected to continue on a general westward course for the next several days. As it pulls away from Haiti late tonight, it will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean, and gradual strengthening is expected. The current forecast calls for it to be a strong tropical storm as it approaches the northern Yucatan Peninsula in a few days. Beyond that, a track into the Gulf of Mexico seems likely at this point.

Out in the central Atlantic, Tropical Depression Eight developed late Sunday night. As of early Monday afternoon, it was centered about 140 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving toward the south at 9 mph. Max sustained winds were near 35 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda. The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight as it turns westward and rides around a ridge of high pressure. Eventually, it will turn back to the north and northeast and head out into the open Atlantic. There is a slight chance that it could impact the East Coast, depending on how quickly it makes the turn. It should bring some rough seas to the coastal waters from the Carolinas to New England later this week.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Linda still has maximum sustained winds near 105 mph at midday. It was centered about 955 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and moving toward the west-southwest at 9 mph. Linda reached Category 4 strength over the weekend, but now is gradually weakening over open water. It should continue on a general west to west-northwest track this week while slowly weakening. It should pass well north and east of Hawaii late this week as a weakening extratropical system, with little impact other than some rough surf.

Out in the Western Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 16W remains fairly weak. It has maximum sustained winds near 25 mph, and is centered about 180 miles east of Guam, moving toward the west at 18 mph. It will bring heavy rain and some gusty winds to the Northern Mariana Islands over the next day or so as it passes very close to Guam.

The system may start to strengthen once it gets past the Northern Marianas and turns a bit more toward the northwest. Some forecasts call for it to become a tropical storm, and possibly a typhoon by the end of the week. Where it will go is highly uncertain at this point. While the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has it heading towards Taiwan, various models have it continuing westward to the Philippines, continuing west-northwestward toward Taiwan and/or eastern China, or turning northward and heading toward Japan. It will have to be watched closely later this week.

As you might expect, the Atlantic is waking up as we get into mid-August, but it’s not hyperactive just yet. There are also two active storms in the Pacific, and one could be a threat to land.

Tropical Depression Fred remains fairly weak this afternoon near the northern coast of Cuba. It’s centered about 245 miles southeast of Key West, Florida, moving toward the west-northwest at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are only near 35 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, with a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for parts of southwestern Florida and northern Cuba.

The combination of wind shear and interaction with land has kept Fred weak for the past couple of days, and that will continue for the next 12-24 hours. After that, Fred should turn more toward the northwest and eventually north, crossing the Florida Keys and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should allow for some strengthening. Fred may regain tropical storm strength, but it does not (at least for now) look like it will become a hurricane before its eventual in the Florida Panhandle late Sunday or early Monday.

With a track expected to be just off the west coast of Florida, that means that much of the peninsula can expect heavy rain and some gusty winds this weekend. While winds won’t be exceptional, some gusts to 40 mph are possible, especially near the Gulf coast. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches are expected across the region with some heavier amounts likely. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the region. The other threat across the area will be for tornadoes. With tropical cyclones, the threat for tornadoes is highest in the right front quadrant of a storm. With a storm moving northward like this one, that means north and east of the center, which in this case will be across much of Florida.

Fred isn’t the only system in the Atlantic that we’re watching right now. A disturbance centered about 775 miles east of the Leeward Islands is gradually organizing this afternoon. It doesn’t quite have a closed circulation yet, but it is expected to over the next 12-24 hours, so the National Hurricane Center has designated it “Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven”. This designation allows Tropical Storm Watches to be issued for much of the Leeward Islands. For now, it’s not really a storm, but we’ll let NHC play their games. The system is moving westward at 21 mph, and maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph.

The future of this system is uncertain. Some models have it continue westward, across the Leeward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean, following a similar path to Fred, near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, then across Hispaniola. This would keep the system fairly weak. Other models have it a little farther north, passing north of PR/VI and Hispaniola, and into the Bahamas. This would allow for a stronger storm. However, the storm also needs to slow down a bit, or it won’t strengthen that fast, no matter what track it takes. Either way, the system will bring heavy rain and squally conditions to the Leeward Islands on Saturday, and PR/VI through the weekend.

Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Linda continues to strengthen. At midday, Linda had maximum sustained winds near 105 mph, and was centered about 430 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. Linda may strengthen a bit more over the next day or two, becoming a Major Hurricane during that time frame. After that, it should begin to weaken. Linda will head in a general westerly direction for the next few days, likely remaining over open water. The only impact it will have is large swells moving into the west coast of Mexico, creating hazardous rip currents.

Out in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm 16W is starting to gather strength. The system is centered about 235 miles east-northeast of Enewetak, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. It is moving toward the west at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. It is expected to maintain its current strength through the weekend while heading westward. It may start to strengthen by the end of the weekend, and could become a threat to parts of the Northern Mariana Islands by early next week.

Elsewhere, the tropics remain quiet for now, but that likely won’t last too long as we are rapidly approaching the peak of hurricane season in both the Atlantic and the Pacific.

After bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the northeastern Caribbean for a couple of days, a tropical disturbance finally closed off its circulation late last night to earn the designation Tropical Storm Fred.

As of early Wednesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Fred was centered about 30 miles west of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, moving toward the west-northwest at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for much of the Dominican Republic, with Tropical Storm Watches in effect for parts of Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.

The combination of the center crossing the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and westerly wind shear will keep Fred weak for the next day or two as it heads west-northwestward across Haiti and near the coast of Cuba. Whether the center stays offshore of Cuba or near or just onshore will have an impact on how much the storm starts to re-strengthen. It will produce gusty winds and heavy rain across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and parts of the Bahamas, leading to flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches and locally heavier are likely.

By late Friday or Saturday, Fred will start to turn more toward the northwest and north as it rounds the edge of a large ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic. This should bring the storm across the Florida Keys early Saturday, and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It should start to strengthen again as it heads toward the northern Gulf Coast. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Fred to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle early Monday as a strong tropical storm. However, given the average errors in forecasting tropical systems, it could be a hurricane by then. Landfall could also take place as far west as Louisiana, or the system could turn earlier and impact southern or even southeastern Florida. A lot of these variables should become a bit clearer once Fred emerges from Hispaniola early Thursday. It does seem likely that heavy rain will impact at least parts of southern Florida this weekend, with flooding likely. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for at least the Florida Keys, if not parts of southern Florida as well, late tonight or early Thursday.

Fred might be the only named system in the Atlantic right now, but it’s not the only system we’re keeping an eye on. There’s a tropical wave several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. That wave will make its way across the Atlantic over the next several days. It is disorganized at the moment, but conditions should become more favorable for development over the next few days. Some models show to potential for it to become a tropical depression as it nears the Lesser Antilles this weekend. We’ll watch this one over the next few days as it continues its trek westward.

The Atlantic isn’t the only active basin at the moment. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Kevin is a few hundred miles west-southwest of Baja California, but it is expected to dissipate over open water in the next few days. We also have Tropical Storm Linda, located a few hundred miles off the southwest coast of Mexico. Linda is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Thursday, but will head west-northwestward away from land for the next several days. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression 16W is located just west of the International Dateline, but should remain fairly weak as it heads westward over the next few days. It could impact a few islands, such as Enewetak, with squally conditions over the next few days, but in general, it isn’t much of a threat.

Tropical Storm Elsa has its sights set on Cuba and Florida over the next couple of days.

After weakening to a Tropical Storm, Elsa has been battering parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica with strong winds and heavy rainfall over the past couple of days. Cuba is starting to feel the effects, and they’ll become more widespread today and Monday. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for Jamaica, most of Cuba, parts of the Cayman Islands, as well as the Florida Keys and parts of South Florida.

As of midday Sunday, Elsa was centered about 50 miles north of Kingston, Jamaica, moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph. While the storm may strengthen a little today, weakening is expected tonight as the center crosses Cuba. Once it reemerges in the Florida Straits on Monday, it will head northward toward the Florida Keys. While the water is plenty warm enough to support some intensification, shear will begin to increase as well, which acts to weaken the storm. The current forecast calls for the system to maintain its intensity Monday and Tuesday. Since intensity is usually the hardest thing to forecast in tropical systems, we wouldn’t be surprised if it re-intensified back into a hurricane, nor would we be surprised if it continued to weaken as it is moving northward off the west coast of Florida.

Once Elsa crosses the Florida Keys it will continue northward, eventually turning northeastward as it moves around the edge of a large ridge of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. When it starts making that northeast turn will determine where landfall is expected in Florida. At this point, anywhere from Fort Myers to Pensacola could be the spot. Either way, heavy rain is likely across Florida over the next couple of days, especially western Florida. Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches and locally heavier will result in flooding in some areas.

Once it makes the turn, we have another question that we can’t answer yet – when will the center re-emerge over the Atlantic? Obviously, the longer it remains over land, the weaker it will be, but if it were to move offshore closer to northern Florida or Georgia instead of over North Carolina, there would be a window for a little strengthening as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Either way, it will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of Georgia and the Carolinas toward the middle of the week. Once it moves back offshore, it should continue northeastward and out to sea while becoming extratropical later this week. Depending on how far north it actually gets, it could interact with a frontal system and bring some rainfall to parts of eastern New England by the end of the week, but there’s a lot that has to happen first before we can have any clarity on that possibility.

After starting hurricane season with 4 “tropical storms” that were probably not tropical, the first hurricane of the season has developed.

Hurricane Elsa formed as Tropical Depression Five late Wednesday night well east of the Lesser Antilles, and became Tropical Storm Elsa on Thursday. It rapidly intensified into a hurricane Friday morning as it approached Barbados. As Elsa crossed the Windward Islands Friday morning/early afternoon it produced wind gusts as high as 86 mph on Barbados and 79 mph on Saint Lucia. This is the earliest in the season that a storm has hit Barbados, and it is the 2nd earliest Hurricane ever in the eastern Caribbean, trailing only an unnamed storm from 1933.

As of 2am Saturday, Hurricane Elsa was centered approximately 620 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving toward the west-northwest at 29 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as for the island of Jamaica, with Tropical Storm Warnings for the remainder of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for parts of eastern Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for parts of the Cayman Islands.

Elsa could strengthen a bit on Saturday, but for the most part, weakening is forecast. Some dry air got entrained in the circulation late Friday, okus the current rapid forward speed with both serve to inhibit any further strengthening, Although Elsa is expected to slow down over the next 24 hours, a turn more toward the northwest is expected. This will bring the storm closer to Hispaniola, where the mountainous terrain could disrupt the circulation as well.

Current forecasts bring the center of the storm close to southern Haiti Saturday night, then toward southeastern and southern Cuba on Sunday. The intensity of the storm will be determined partially by the track the storm takes. The longer the circulation center stays over water, the better chance that the storm is stronger.

As the storm slows down, it increases the chances for heavy rainfall across southern portions of Hispaniola, eastern and southern Cuba, and parts of Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 6-12 inches and locally heavier will lead to flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to cross Cuba on Monday while turning northward. Given that this is already three days out, the uncertainty in the forecast becomes much large. A track towards Florida seems likely, but is far from definite at this point. Several models bring the storm up the west coast of Florida, while many others bring it up the east coast or even over the Bahamas. How strong the storm is at this point is also highly uncertain. Residents from the central Gulf Coast all the way to the Carolinas should keep tabs on the system this weekend, as it has the potential to impact anywhere within that range by the early to middle portion of next week.

Elsewhere, the tropics remain fairly quiet, with no other organized systems at this time.