OK, let’s dispense with this right away – despite what you may have seen or heard about online today, the odds of a hurricane hitting the East Coast next week are still fairly small. Just because a couple of computer models are showing that possibility does not make it a fact. The “storm” in question hasn’t even formed yet, and may not form this weekend (or at all).

Having said that, the tropics are getting active. In the Northern Hemisphere, tropical activity normally peaks during the latter half of August and much of September. So far, it looks like 2016 will follow that pattern, as there are currently five active systems around the world, and a couple of other areas being monitored for development.

The most active area right now is the Western Pacific Ocean, where there are three active systems, a third that is dissipating in northern Vietnam, and another disturbance that could develop in the next day or two.

Tropical Storm 10W (Mindulle) is probably the most immediate threat to land. The system is located several hundred miles east of Japan, moving towards the northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Mindulle could become a typhoon this weekend. Computer model forecasts indicate a northerly track over the next few days, with landfall possible in southern Japan towards the end of the weekend or beginning of next week.

Tropical Storm 12W (Lionrock) is actually closer to the south coast of Japan right now than Tropical Storm Mindulle, but is less of a threat. Lionrock is expected to head westward to southwestward over the next few days, with some slow strengthening expected. Lionrock could threat some of the islands southwest of Japan during the early to middle portion of next week.

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm 11W (Dianmu) made landfall in northern Vietnam earlier today. The system will continue moving inland while dissipating. It will continue to bring heavy rain to parts of the region, with flooding likely. Another disturbance in the Western Pacific, located about 1000 miles southeast of Japan, is being monitored for development. The system could become a tropical depression this weekend while heading on a general northwesterly track. It could be a threat to parts of northern and eastern Japan towards the middle of next week.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Kay has formed. As of midday Friday, Kay had top winds near 40 mph and was passing very close to Socorro Island, off the coast of Mexico. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight and Saturday before Kay moves over colder waters and starts to weaken and eventually dissipate. Once Kay moves away from Socorro Island this afternoon and evening, it should not be a threat to any land areas.

Finally, we get to the Atlantic, where we have Tropical Storm Fiona. As of Midday Friday, Fiona was centered about 1300 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, moving towards the west-northwest at 10 mph. Top winds are near 45 mph, but conditions are not favorable for additional strengthening. Indications are that Fiona should remain a weak system over the open waters of the Central Atlantic right through the weekend, with no threat to any land areas.

Farther to the east, a tropical wave located about 600 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, is being monitored for further development. The system should remain weak through the weekend, but conditions should become favorable for development as it moves into the Central Atlantic Ocean by the beginning on next week. Many of the computer models are forecasting the system to develop into an organized tropical system during that time frame. If these forecasts are correct, the system could become a threat to the islands in the eastern and northeastern Caribbean by the middle of next week. Anyone with interests in that region should keep an eye on the system and it’s progression.

What this system does once it gets past the islands is pure speculation at this point, assuming it even develops and gets that far. Just based on some of the computer models today, it will either A) Not develop at all, B) Stay over water the entire time and never threaten land, except possibly Bermuda, or C) Make landfall just before Labor Day Weekend somewhere between the Central Gulf Coast and Newfoundland. If you hear someone say something about the “hurricane that’s going to hit the East Coast next week”, then they don’t have a clue as to what they’re talking about. It’s pure hype ad speculation, and we’ll have no part of it.

After a quiet July across the Atlantic Ocean, August began with Tropical Storm Earl forming southwest of Jamaica on Tuesday. Earl strengthened into a Hurricane Wednesday afternoon while approaching Central America, with landfall expected in Belize around midnight.

As of 11pm EDT, Hurricane Earl was centered about 40 miles east of Belize City, moving towards the west at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, with little additional strengthening expected in the next few hours before Earl makes landfall.

Hurricane warnings are in effect from Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

Most of the strong winds are in the northeastern quadrant of Earl, which will spare coastal locations in Honduras and Belize from significant wind damage. Right along the immediate coast, a storm surge of 4-6 feet, along with large waves will result in coastal flooding, especially near and north where the central makes landfall in Belize. The biggest threat by far is flooding and mudslides from torrential rainfall. Rainfall totals of 10-15 inches, with isolated totals in excess of 20 inches, are expected across Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico over the next few days.

Once Earl moves inland, it would steadily weaken, likely being downgraded to a tropical depression by Thursday night. Earl should continue on a westward track, but the exact track will be critical for Earl’s future. If Earl remains over land, it will dissipate over southern Mexico. However, if the center can emerge in the southern Bay of Campeche, it could regain a little strength before making landfall again in Mexico.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, things are mainly quiet. A tropical wave will bring showers and thunderstorms along with some gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles late Thursday, moving across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Thursday night and Friday.  Further development isn’t expected at this time.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Ivette continues to gather strength this evening. As of 11pm EDT, Ivette was centered a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, moving toward the west at 16 mph. Ivette has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Ivette could become a hurricane in the next day or two while moving over open waters in the Eastern Pacific.

Now that we’re in August, the tropics are starting to get active all around the world. We’ll take a look at all of the systems out there, starting close to home.

A strong tropical wave is centered about 200 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica late this evening. The system is producing heavy rain and gusty winds across parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica, and these conditions will spread into the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Although the system looks pretty good in satellite photos, it does not have a closed circulation as of yet. Once that occurs, the system will likely be upgraded to Tropical Storm Early.An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft will investigate the storm early on Tuesday to see if that has happened.

Whether or not the system develops, it should continue to move in a general westward direction at a fairly fast pace for the next few days. The system will likely move across the Yucatan or Belize towards midweek. After that, if it moves into the Bay of Campeche it could strengthen some more before hitting Mexico again late in the week. One thing that is likely is that heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and mudslides across pparts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through Tuesday, and parts of the Yucatan and Belize later this week. For the latter locations, rainfall totals of 8-15 inches are possible, which some heavier amounts not ruled out.

In the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Howard is centered about 1125 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico late this evening. Howard has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph, and is moving towards the west-northwest at 14 mph. Howard is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest or west over the next few days while steadily weakening as it moves over colder waters.

A little to east of Howard, a cluster of thunderstorms well southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is being watched for development. Conditions look favorable for this system to develop over the next few days and it could become a tropical depression later this week. Forecast models show some steady strengthening through the week, and if the system gathers enough strength, it will be named Ivette.

In the Western Pacific Ocean, Typhoon 06W (Nida), made landfall very close to Hong Kong earlier on Tuesday. After lashing the northern Philippines with up to 10 inches of rain on Sunday, Nida took aim at Hong Kong on Monday. It made landfall in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday just east of Hong Kong, producing a wind gust to 64 mph at Hong Kong International Airport, and a gust to 94 mph at Ngong Ping. Nida will continue to move inland on wednesday while dissipating. Rainfall totals of 6-12 inches are possible in the region, likely leading to flooding in some areas.

As we approach the end of July, tropical cyclone activity normally starts to ramp up across both the Atlantic and the Pacific. This year, that is the case once again, with one active system right now and three other areas of disturbed weather that are being monitored for development.

The only active tropical system right now is located in the Western Pacific Ocean. Tropical Depression 06W formed Friday afternoon about 450 miles east-southeast of Manila in the Philippines. The system is expected to steadily strengthen on Saturday, likely becoming Tropical Storm Nida. The current track calls for the system to become a typhoon before passing very close to northern Luzon on Sunday. This track will likely bring very heavy rainfall to northern portions of Philippines. Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches are possible, with some heavier amounts. Flooding and mudslides are likely across this area. After passing near or over northern Luzon this weekend, the storm will head west-northwestward into the South China Sea. A track towards southern China seems likely, with a landfall near Hong Kong possible. Flooding has been reported in southern China recently from heavy monsoonal rains, and additional heavy rain from a tropical system will likely worsen flooding in the region.

Heading eastward, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms centered about 750 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico is being watched for signs of development. Although the shower activity is disorganized right now, conditions are favorable for the development of a tropical depression this weekend. Some slow but steady strengthening is expected into early next week. The system will not be a threat to any land areas.

In the Atlantic, after a record-setting start to the season, things have been quiet throughout the month of July. As we flip the calendar into August, that could change.

During the first part of hurricane season (June/July), attention is mainly focused on the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and the Bahamas for tropical development. These are the areas where water temperatures are warm enough to sustain tropical systems, but also areas where conditions are usually more favorable for systems to develop. Out across the open waters of the Atlantic, strong easterly winds can bring surges of Saharan dust off of Africa and send them across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean. This dry, dusty air inhibits the development of thunderstorms. As we get into August, the easterlies usually calm down a bit, and tropical waves start rolling off of Africa every few days. Some of these waves look impressive as they exit the coast, with plenty of shower and thunderstorm activity, only to quickly collapse when they hit the colder waters right off the coast of Africa. Others survive that part of the trip and make their way across the Atlantic. The ones that develop quickly into tropical systems are known as “Cape Verde Storms”, since the often form not far from the Cape Verde Islands. With plenty of time to cross the Atlantic, some of these storms are the most powerful storms we’ve seen.

Right now, there are two areas of disturbed weather we’re watching in the Atlantic. One of these is a cluster of thunderstorms passing south of the Cape Verde Islands. Although the system is disorganized at the moment, conditions are favorable for some development this weekend. As we head into the beginning of next week, conditions look less favorable. Most of the forecast models indicate that the system should remain weak, if it develops at all, and remain over open waters, with no threat to any land areas.

The second disturbance is the one that bears watching, and will have impacts on land areas. A tropical wave is centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles this evening, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is moving along rather quickly (around 20-25 mph), and this fast motion will likely preclude much development over the weekend. The wave will bring showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds to the islands of the eastern and northeastern Caribbean this weekend. Parts of this region are still recovering from a drought, so the rainfall will be welcome. As this system moves into the Caribbean, we’ll need to keep a close eye on it. Some models have the center of the system pass north of the islands, and towards the Bahamas, some have it pass directly over the islands, and others have it pass south of the islands and across the Caribbean, then possibly towards the Gulf of Mexico. The exact track it takes will determine whether it has a chance to develop or not. At this time, it’s far too early to tell which way it will go, so we’ll need to keep an eye on it.

As we head into August, tropical activity should continue to ramp up across the Atlantic and the Pacific as we head towards the peak of the season, which is usually from late August to late September.

After a rather slow start to the Hurricane Season, the Eastern Pacific has gotten very active, setting records in the process.

Late Friday morning, Tropical Depression Eight-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Georgette, the seventh named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific this month. This ties July of 1985 for the record for most storms to form during the month of July in the Eastern Pacific. as of 8am PDT, Georgette was centered about 870 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. Georgette had maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Georgette could become a hurricane this weekend while moving across the open waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

Closer to Mexico is Tropical Storm Frank. As of 8am PDT, Frank was centered about 235 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico with top winds near 50 mph, moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Frank is expected to continue moving toward the northwest this weekend with some additional strengthening possible. Frank could become a hurricane before a weakening trend starts. By the end of the weekend, Frank is expected to start weakening while moving over colder waters west and southwest of Baja California. While Frank does not appear to be a threat to land at this time, anyone with interests in the Southern Baja Peninsula should monitor Frank’s progress, in case it tracks a bit farther east of the current projections.

To the west, Tropical Storm Estelle was centered about 1500 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico as of 8am PDT. Estelle continues to weaken, with maximum sustained winds down to 40 mph. Estelle is expected to dissipate over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific this weekend.

Despite all the activity in the Eastern Pacific, most of the attention is centered on the Central Pacific Ocean, where Tropical Storm Darby is bearing down on Hawaii.

As of 5am HST, Darby was centered about 390 miles east of Hilo, HI moving toward the west at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph, and some additional weakening is expected. Darby is expected to turn more towards the northwest this weekend, passing very close to or right over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the island of Hawaii, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe. While Darby may bring gusty winds, possibly to 50 mph at times, to portions of Hawaii this weekend, the main threat will be rainfall and resultant flooding. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are possible, with some heavier amounts expected. Conditions should improve across the islands by Monday as the storm pulls away from the region and continues to weaken.

After a very quiet start to the season, the Pacific Ocean is starting to get active.

Super Typhoon 02W (Nepartak) has been gathering strength while crossing the Western Pacific Ocean for the past few days. After peaking with top winds near 170 mph on Wednesday, some slight weakening has occurred today, with winds decreasing to near 160 mph. Unfortunately, only a little additional weakening is expected before the storm makes landfall in Taiwan late Thursday.

After crossing Taiwan, the storm will steadily weaken before moving into eastern China. While wind and storm surge will still be threats along the coast, the bigger threat to much of the region will be heavy rainfall and the resulting flooding. Recent heavy rain has already created flooding that result in the dozens of deaths across the region. Another 5 to 10 inches or more is expected with the storm, likely worsening conditions across the region.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, there are currently two active storms, though neither is a threat to land.

Hurricane Blas peaked on Tuesday night as a Category 4 Hurricane with top winds near 140 mph. As of Thursday afternoon, Blas was centered a little more than 1200 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico with top winds near 120 mph, making it a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Blas is moving towards the west-northwest at 10 mph, and Blas is expected to continue heading across the open waters of the Eastern Pacific while steadily weakening over the next few days.

Closer to Mexico is Tropical Depression Four-E, which formed late Wednesday. As of midday Thursday, the depression was centered about 700 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico with top winds near 35 mph. The depression was heading towards the west-northwest at 8 mph. The forecast for the system is for it to continue heading away from Mexico and out into the open waters of the Eastern Pacific over the next few days. The system could become a Tropical Storm in the next 24-36 hours, at which point it would be given the name Celia.

While the Pacific is active, the Atlantic has quieted down after a record-setting June. A large area of high pressure continues to dominate the region, suppressing most of the tropical waves well to the south. In additional, strong easterly winds keep sending surges of Saharan Dust across the region, which inhibits thunderstorm development. Conditions should remain quiet across the Atlantic into next week.

Just when you thought it was safe to call the tropics quiet with Bonnie disappearing, a new tropical depression has formed.

Earlier today, Tropical Depression Three was born in the southern Gulf of Mexico. As of 5:30pm EDT, the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin with top winds near 40 mph. Colin was centered about 465 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving towards the north at 12 mph. The current forecast is for Colin to turn more towards the northeast over the next day or so and strengthen.

Based on the current forecast track, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood. A tropical storm watch has also been issued for the Atlantic coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the Flagler/Volusia County border in Florida. While the system will likely bring gusty winds to the region along some minor storm surge flooding near where it makes landfall, the biggest impact by far will be heavy rainfall and the flooding it likely produces.Most of the state can expect between 2 and 5 inches of rain, with isolated totals of up to 10 inches possible. Flood watches are already in effect for portions of the state, and more will likely be issued.

Once the system crosses Florida it will likely move into the Atlantic and continue on a northeasterly track out into the open Atlantic. The system may be close enough to the coast to bring additional heavy rain to parts of the Carolinas that were deluged by Bonnie a week ago. This could lead to additional flooding in this area.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, there are now two areas being monitored this evening. The first one is the same one we’ve been watching all week. An area of low pressure is centered about 1100 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, heading westward out into the open waters of the Pacific. Despite the models insisting all week that the system would develop (and some continue to insist on this happening), the system has not gotten its act together, and conditions won’t remain favorable for more than another day or two. So, we can probably write this system off.

The more immediate concern is a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. This system will slowly drift towards the northeast over the next few days, with some strengthening possible. It could become the first tropical depression of the season in the Eastern Pacific by midweek.

Whether the system develops into a tropical depression or not, it will bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala over the next several days. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are possible in this area, with some heavier amounts likely. This will also certainly lead to flash flooding across parts of the region.