We’re into the last week of March and we have our surest sign yet that winter is just about over. Opening Day for the defending World Champion Red Sox (we really love saying that) is Thursday. Granted, it’s in Seattle, and we have to wait another week and a half before they come back to Fenway, but we’re talking about baseball! Summer will be here before you know it.

The first half of the week will actually be fairly quiet. High pressure builds in today and Tuesday behind a departing cold front, with dry but chilly conditions. As the high moves off to the east, temperatures will start to moderate for Wednesday and Thursday.

On Thursday in Seattle, when the World Champion Red Sox take the field for a 4:10pm PDT first pitch, some showers are possible with temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. Don’t worry about the showers though, as Safeco Field T-Mobile Park has a retractable roof, so there shouldn’t be any weather-related issues. As for bullpen issues, well, that’s for other blogs to discuss, but after last season, our mantra for now is “In Alex We Trust”. After all, they are the defending World Champions (we really love saying that).

Getting back to the weather, things start to get complicated around here for Friday and the weekend. You may have heard some forecasts that show highs in the 60s and 70s around here for Friday, Saturday, and possibly Sunday. Sure, that would be great and it’s very possible, at least according to a couple of models. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen though.

A cold front may bring in some showers Thursday night into early Friday. Most of the models show this front stalling out across Northern New England, and remaining there for Friday and Saturday. This would allow milder air to move in, with Friday seeing temperatures in the 60s, and Saturday possibly topping 70 in many areas. The models finally bring that front through on Sunday, with mild temperatures for one more day, though Sunday could end up a rainy day before the front snaps us back to reality. Some models actually have the rain changing to snow Sunday night before ending Monday morning. How’s that for a reality check?

So, if most of the models have it mild, why are we saying it might not happen? Because the models aren’t perfect, and we’ve seen this situation plenty of times in the past during the Spring, especially early Spring, and it doesn’t always work out the way the models show. The ocean is still very cold just to our east, with water temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s. There’s also plenty of snowcover up north. So, if you’ve got high pressure to the north, sitting over that cold air, and a front dropping southward, it’s got a lot of colder air to work with behind it. The front on Friday could very easily stall out just south of New England, and not somewhere across northern New England. If that happens, you can kiss those 60s and 70s goodbye. We’ll be looking at clouds, drizzle, and winds off the Atlantic keeping temperatures in the 40s, maybe even cooler.

The image above shows the forecast highs and lows for Bedford, Massachusetts for the next 15 days, based on the 20 members of the GFS Ensemble. The top horizontal line on high temperatures each day is the highest maximum temperature forecast for highest 10% of the members (2 out of 20). The horizontal line at the bottom of each day is the maximum forecast by lowest 10% of the members. The shaded area in the middle is the range based where 30-70% of the members are forecasting. The dot in the middle is the mean of all 20 members. Using this example for Saturday, the Ensemble has forecast range of 39 to 67 for high temperatures in Bedford. Most of the members come in between 47 and 58, with a mean of 53. With this in mind, we’re going to follow this thinking for now for Friday through Sunday, with highs mainly in the 50s to lower 60s. Keep in mind, temperatures could end up 10-15 degrees warmer or cooler than what we’re currently showing, depending on which scenario actually develops.

Monday: More clouds than sunshine. High 42-49.

Monday night: Clearing. Low 21-28.

Tuesday: Sunshine, and lots of it. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: Sunshine and just a few clouds. High 41-48.

Thursday: Morning sunshine, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. Showers possible at night. Breezy and milder. High 48-55, coolest along the south coast.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, especially during the afternoon. More showers and drizzle are possible at night. High 55-62.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy. High 58-65, cooler along the south coast.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely, possibly changing to snow at night. High 53-60.

Meteorological Spring began on March 1. Astronomical spring begins with the Vernal Equinox this Wednesday, March 20, at 5:58pm EDT. Aside from our brief taste a few days ago, when will it really feel like Spring? Probably not this week.

Once again, we’ve got another fairly quiet week coming up across the region, thanks to high pressure. As it builds it, we’ll have dry and chilly weather for the next few days. Chilly is of course a relative term, as “chilly” in mid-March is a lot different than “chilly” in mid-January. We’ll moderate a bit for the first day of Spring on Wednesday as the high moves offshore. It might even be a decent day for some ice cream, since Dairy Queen is offering a free small vanilla cone to celebrate the start of Spring. Then again, is there a bad day for ice cream?

By Thursday we’ll have a cold front approaching the area. It will bring in some showers. Colder air moves in on Friday, and with an upper-level disturbance moving through, some rain or snow showers are possible. We’re not looking at any accumulation around here, but it’s just a reminder that even though it’ll be “Spring”, Mother Nature follows her own calendar.

High pressure returns on Saturday with much colder conditions. It’ll feel like winter, with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s. The high moves offshore, and we’ll quickly warm up again on Sunday.

Monday: Sunshine and afternoon clouds. High 37-44.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 22-29.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny for much of the day, clouds start to stream in by late afternoon. High 43-50.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds and breezy with scattered showers. High 44-51.

Friday: Some early sun, then clouding up again with a few rain or snow showers possible, breezy. High 41-48.

Saturday: Sunshine. Lots of it. Blustery. High 37-44.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine again, with just a few clouds around. High 53-60, cooler along the South Coast.

There are some indications that we could be looking at a storm around here next Tuesday or Wednesday. It’s obviously way too early for any specifics, and we’re not expecting this to be a snowstorm, but it might not be just rain either. Late-season snowstorms aren’t unheard of, as we’ve had big storms well into April and even early May before. If the models continue down this path, well obviously have more info in our weekly outlook next week. Basically, we’re just telling you now that you shouldn’t take the ice scraper out of the car and put away your winter clothing just yet.

We’ve actually got a fairly quiet week coming up across the region, and we should melt quite a bit of the snow that’s out there.

High pressure builds into the region today as yesterday’s storm continues to move into southeastern Canada. We’ll have a mild day, but cooler air will filter in, with Tuesday and Wednesday turning out much cooler than today. Still we’ll have temperatures above freezing during the daylight hours, so the snowpack that’s been in place for over a week now will gradually start to dwindle as the strong March sun also goes to work on it.

By late week, the high slides offshore, allowing milder air to move back in. By Friday, another storms system heads into the Great Lakes. This one looks like it will be mainly rain around here. In fact, we should be quite mild, with temperatures well into the 50s on Friday.

We’ll cool down a little on Saturday behind the system, then high pressure builds in next Sunday, making for a chilly St. Patrick’s Day.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 41-48.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24-31.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, still breezy. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: Sunshine filtered by afternoon high clouds. High 39-46.

Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, and milder. High 46-53.

Friday: Cloudy and mild with showers likely. High 54-61.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 44-51.

Sunday: Lots of sunshine. High 37-44.

Meteorological winter runs from December 1 to February 28. Using that definition, winter ends this Thursday. That doesn’t mean that we’re done with wintry weather though. March is often a very wintry month, and we’ve had snow well into April and May before. Still, we’re getting closer and closer to warmer weather. You just won’t find any around here this week.

This week will start off very windy and quite chilly. Strong low pressure moving into Atlantic Canada will produce very powerful winds across the area today. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph are likely, with gusts of 50-60 mph or more. This will likely result in damage and power outages, so keep your electronics charged up, if possible. Not only will it be windy, but it’ll be chilly too, with highs only in the 30s.

High pressure starts to build in on Tuesday with diminishing winds and colder conditions. Wednesday will also be chilly, with clouds starting to stream in ahead of an Albert Clipper. This will bring us some light snow late Wednesday into early Thursday, but it shouldn’t be a big deal – just a few inches seems most likely right now. It’ll be followed by another weak system that will pass through on Friday with little fanfare.

That brings us to next weekend, which looks awfully similar to what we’ve got right now. Another strong storm will move into the Great Lakes, with some rain likely on Saturday. It may start as a wintry mix, especially well inland, but for the most part, it looks like rain right now. Behind the storm, another windy and cold day looks likely on Sunday with some snow showers possible.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, very windy. High 29-36.

Monday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear, still windy. Low 12-19.

Tuesday: Brilliant sunshine, but breezy and chilly. High 22-29.

Tuesday night: Clear and cold. Low 4-11.

Wednesday: Some early sun, then clouding up with light snow likely late in the day and at night. High 20-27.

Thursday: Any lingering light snow ends early, sunny breaks develop in the afternoon. High 27-34.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, slight chance for a snow or rain shower. High 33-40.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, possibly starting as some sleet or freezing rain inland. High 39-46.

Sunday: Some sunshine early, then partly to mostly cloudy and windy with a chance of snow shower. High 29-36.

We’ve certainly got an interesting week coming up, and we’re not just talking about the weather. Boston sports fans have two annual occurrences to look forward to this week – today is Truck Day, and tomorrow is Parade Day.

Today is Truck Day – one of the first signs of Spring in New England. A truck filled with baseball equipment will leave Fenway Park today, bound for Fort Myers, Florida, where the Red Sox will begin spring training in about a week. Today will feel like Spring already, with a warm front to the north, resulting in temperatures getting into the 50s with some sunshine.

Tuesday is a more important day, as there will be another Championship Parade in the City of Boston – the 12th in 18 years. As a Boston sports fan, this does not get old, and we don’t care if the rest of the nation hate us. Tuesday will start off with some clouds, and possibly a few showers, as a weak system passes to the north, but it will be another warm day, with some places possibly reaching 60 degrees. The warmth will be short-lived, as a cold front moves through late in the day, snapping us back to reality Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure builds in with much cooler weather.

This brings us to the latter half of the week, where things get complicated. A system will move towards the region Wednesday night into early Thursday. This system will be fairly weak, but temperatures will be near or just below freezing when the precipitation moves in, especially north and west of Boston. So, we could be looking at some freezing rain, especially in southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. Temperatures will gradually warm above freezing everywhere as a second storm approaches for Thursday night into Friday. This will bring more rain into the area. Friday could also be a very mild day as this second system may pass well to our north and west, bringing a warm front through. Once it moves by, it drags a cold front across the region, then high pressure builds back in for next weekend with dry and colder conditions once again.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds, milder. High 48-55, cooler across Cape Cod.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, with a few showers possible, mainly north of Route 2. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Early clouds, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and mild. High 52-59, cooler across Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine. Rain developing at night, possibly starting as some freezing rain from the Merrimack Valley northward. High 35-42.

Thursday: Cloudy with freezing rain changing to rain before ending in the morning, then redeveloping in the evening. High 36-43.

Friday: Cloudy, breezy, and mild with rain ending during the afternoon. High 48-55.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and much cooler. High 24-31.

Sunday: Early sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. High 27-34.

We’ll be riding a rollercoaster for temperatures again this week, but today will leave no doubt that winter has finally arrived.

Some of the coldest air of the season will settle into the region today on gusty north to northwest winds in the wake of the storm system that brought us a mess over the weekend. We’ll have partly sunny skies on average, with some snow showers possible over the Outer Cape. High pressure builds in tonight with light winds, resulting in a bitterly cold night. As the high moves offshore, we’ll start to moderate on Tuesday, but it will remain quite chilly.

The moderating trend will continue on Wednesday as a storm system approaches the region. While we may see a little snow or a wintry mix in the afternoon, this system will mainly produce some rain showers. The system will drag a cold front through, but the cold air will lag a bit. As the front stalls out offshore, a wave of low pressure will ride up the front, bringing in more rain on Thursday. Some of this rain could be heavy, especially south of Boston. The rain may mix with some wet snow before ending Thursday evening.

Another weak system will quickly follow for late Friday into early Saturday. This one will likely produce some light snow or snow showers, but it does not look like a big deal at this time. Another shot of arctic air moves in for Saturday night. Next Sunday is a bit of a question mark once again. As we’ve mentioned a few times, the models have not been that good beyond a few days. There are some indications that another storm could impact us at some point in the Sunday/Monday time frame next week. Frankly, we’re not sure what to expect at this point, so we’re not going to go into too much detail. Could be snow. Could be rain. Could be more sleet and ice. Could be all of the above. Could be a complete miss. Right now, it’s impossible to pin down. Just keep in mind, that it *could* be another stormy Sunday.

Monday: Partly sunny and breezy, chance for some snow showers across parts of Cape Cod. High 4-11 above.

Monday night: Clear and quite cold. Low 2 below to 5 above.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, though some clouds will start to move in during the afternoon. High 20-27.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 11-18.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers likely, possibly starting as a little snow or a wintry mix. High 38-45.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times. High 43-50, possibly warmer across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. Clouds return at night. High 30-37.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few snow showers early. High 18-25.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of……something. High 30-37.