The weather really was fantastic this weekend, wasn’t it? Spring has finally arrived! Hope you enjoyed it, because you won’t see it again for a while, certainly not this week.

We’ll start the week off with what will probably be the best day of the week, certainly the warmest. It won’t be as warm as the weekend, but temperatures will still be close to normal for early May. The problem is, we’ll have a cold front moving through, with some clouds, and maybe a shower or two. Gusty northwest winds behind the front will usher some cooler air into the region. Winds will start to die down on Tuesday as high pressure builds in, but temperatures will be noticeably cooler.

Clouds return on Wednesday as another system moves into the Mid-Atlantic states. This system will pass south of the region Wednesday night into early Thursday, likely producing some showers. Another shot of colder air settles in behind that system as an upper-level low pressure area drops southward from Canada. This sets us up for a very chilly end of the week and weekend.

As the upper-level low settles in, a weak disturbance rotating around it will move in on Friday, with plenty of clouds, a few showers, and unseasonably chilly temperatures. Another low pressure area will then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast and head northeastward, passing south and east of the region late Saturday into early Sunday. This will bring in some more rain, but that might not be all. The airmass moving in for the weekend is one that is more typical of early March than early May. Daytime highs may not reach 50, and the rain will make it feel that much worse. At night, as temperatures drop, there’s even a chance that some wet snow could mix in, especially across the hills of Worcester County and Northern Rhode Island. While this is highly unusual, it is not unprecedented. On May 9, 1977, a late-season storm produced snow across a large portion of southern New England, away from the coastline, with 1-2 feet in the hills of Worcester County. We also had up to 1″ of snow in some of the northwestern suburbs of Boston on May 18, 2002.

The system pulls away early Sunday, then high pressure builds back in with clearing and chilly conditions for Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately, it looks like the cool pattern will continue into the following week. In fact, we may not see any sustained warmth until we get past the middle of May. We know that’s not what you want to hear, but it’s how we see things right now.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, chance for a few showers, favoring the South Coast in the morning. High 60-67.

Monday night: Clearing, breezy. Low 34-41.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 52-59.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers develop at night. High 53-60, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, especially during the morning. High 50-57, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Early sun, then some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 52-59.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the hills of Worcester County and northern Rhode Island. High 45-52.

Sunday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 46-53.

Here we are in the final days of April, and we’re still talking about snow. Don’t worry, it won’t cause any problems but the fact remains that it’s still in the forecast. Much of the rest of the week won’t be a lot better.

The week starts off with an absolutely miserable day on Monday. Low pressure will be meandering around south of New England, keeping us cloudy, cool, and rather wet, with occasional showers. Across the hills from Worcester County into the Monadnocks, there will likely be some flakes flying, especially in the morning and again late in the day. Temperatures will likely stay in the upper 30s and 40s all day today, which is 20-25 degrees below normal for late April. By Monday night the storm will start to slowly pull away, but things won’t improve that quickly. In fact, Monday night will be even more miserable, as the lingering showers may mix with or change over to wet snow across much of southern New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts. There may be enough to coat the grass in some spots, but this shouldn’t be a big deal.

The low finally pulls away on Tuesday, but with an upper-level low crossing the Northeast, we’ll still have plenty of clouds, a few showers, and some cool temperatures. We’ll finally see some clearing Tuesday night, and then as Wednesday begins, the sun should make a return. It won’t last too long, as clouds will start to stream back in during the afternoon as yet another storm system heads toward the region.

Thursday is looking like a very wet day as low pressure heads into the Great Lakes. It’s also looking quite breezy, but it’s not looking as cold as today. We could be looking at wind gusts of 40-50 mph once again. A southerly flow ahead of the storm will bring plenty of moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas, so we could be looking at quite a bit of rain later on Thursday into Thursday night. This isn’t a bad thing, as we still need more rain, despite the already wet month of April. Rain should taper off late Thursday night, but another upper-level low moves through on Friday, so we’re looking at more clouds, and likely some more showers.

This brings us to next weekend. Finally, we’ll see some improvement. High pressure builds in on Saturday, so we’ll see sunshine and milder temperatures. We’ll still be under the influence of the upper-level low, so some clouds will pop up, and there’s a slight chance for another shower. Sunday is the tricky day. We’ll have a cold front approaching the region, likely producing some showers. However, ahead of the front, if we can get some sunshine, temperatures could make a run at 70 degrees.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with occasional showers, possibly mixed with some wet snowflakes across the hills early in the day and again late in the day. High 37-44.

Monday night: Cloudy with a few rain or snow showers possible. Low 31-38.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a few lingering showers along the coastline early, a few sunny breaks are possible late in the day. High 45-52.

Tuesday night: Clearing. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, clouds start to filter back in during the afternoon. High 50-57, a little cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Cloudy and windy with rain developing, possibly heavy at times late in the day and at night. High 49-56.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with steady rain ending early, but a few showers may pop up in the afternoon, a few sunny breaks are also possible. High 58-65.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 59-66.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, showers possible during the afternoon. High 62-69, cooler right along the coast.

If you’re curious as to when the warmer weather will be here to stay, it looks like this pattern will continue through the 1st 2 weeks of May. Beyond that, things should start to improve, with a pattern change possibly bringing us temperatures that are near to above normal for the latter half of May.

Today was supposed to be our unofficial start to Spring. Patriots Day is when we finally feel like Spring has arrived. Thousands of runners heading from Hopkinton to Boston. Sox fans having hot dogs and beer for breakfast with first pitch at 11:05am for the only morning game in the major leagues all season. Re-enactments of Paul Revere’s ride and the Battles of Lexington and Concord. Instead, it’s just another day with people stuck in their houses, but the weather wasn’t going to be that great to be outside anyway.

The week starts of with low pressure passing well south and east of New England. In fact, it’ll be far enough offshore that aside from a few showers across the Cape and the Islands, most of us will just have clouds and cool temperatures. Tuesday will be a different story. We’ll have some sunshine to start, but low pressure moving across southern Canada will drag a strong cold front across the region. As that front moves into the region showers and some thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and into the evening. We’re not expecting widespread severe weather like they had along the Gulf Coast, but a few storms could become strong, with gusty winds, heavy downpours, and possibly some small hail.

Behind the front, skies quickly clear out Tuesday night, but strong northwest winds will usher much cooler air into the region. It will remain breezy and chilly on Wednesday as an upper-level low crosses the region, with a few sprinkles possible. High pressure then builds in for Thursday with milder conditions, but clouds will start to move as another storm system heads toward the region.

Low pressure will move out the Tennessee Valley then re-develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday night, heading northeastward on Friday. This is where the uncertainty starts to increase. There are some models that show the system staying just a bit too far south, with most of the rain confined to the South Coast or offshore. Other models have showers move in Thursday night, with rain, possibly heavy at times through the day on Friday, ending late in the day. One model even has the rain change to snow before ending across parts of southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. At this point, any of these solutions could be valid. For now, we’re going somewhere in the middle, with Friday being a rather wet day, with the heaviest rain south of the Mass Pike.

We’ll dry out a bit on Saturday, but another system quickly follows, but again, there’s questions about the timing and evolution of that system. It looks like we’ll have some showers come through Saturday night, then a stronger coastal storm may move in for somewhere around Sunday and/or Monday. Next Sunday could be a rainy and possibly windy day, but it’s still a little early to be sure. Then again, it’s not like most of us would have any outdoor plans anyway.

Monday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers across the Outer Cape and Islands. High 48-55, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Skies clear out. Low 30-37.

Tuesday: Sunny during the morning, then clouds return, showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon, becoming breezy. High 51-58.

Tuesday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, then clearing, windy, and colder. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 41-48.

Thursday: Sunshine gradually fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. High 51-58.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely, especially south of the Mass Pike where some heavier rain is possible. High 48-55, coolest along the coast.

Saturday: Some morning sun, then clouds return, breezy. High 54-61, cooler along the coast.

Sunday: Cloudy with more rain possible. High 48-55.

Another week when you’re stuck in the house, and for at least a few days this week, that might not be a bad thing.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, which will result in a pair of very nice days for Monday and Tuesday. Monday will feature sunshine, mild temperatures and gusty winds, while Tuesday will feature less wind, but a little more cloud cover in the afternoon, as well as a seabreeze along the coast. The clouds will be streaming in ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the Great Lakes. A backdoor cold front will slip down the coastline Tuesday night and that low pressure area will ride along it. It will bring in some rain Wednesday morning, along with some cooler weather.

While the rain will end Wednesday morning as low pressure pulls away, Wednesday will remain cloudy and chilly thanks to a northeast flow off the Atlantic. Another system quickly follows on Thursday, with more rain likely, possibly even a few wet snowflakes, especially across southern New Hampshire and some of the hilly terrain in central Massachusetts. The rain ends as the system pulls away Thursday night, but an upper-level low pressure area will remain nearby, keeping the region rather cool for the weekend. It will also keep clouds around, and possibly a few showers, especially on Friday. A storm system may bring in some rain on Sunday, but at this time, it looks like it may hold off until Monday, so we’ll keep the forecast dry for now (not that you can really go out and do anything right now).

Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds, breezy. High 56-63.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 57-64.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing after midnight. Low 35-42.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, showers ending in the morning. High 44-51.

Thursday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain likely, ending in the evening. Some wet snow may mix in across some of the hilly terrain. High 45-52.

Friday: Some morning sun, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 45-52.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 45-52.

Sunday: Morning sunshine, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 47-54.

It’s probably a good thing that most of us don’t have anywhere to go this week, since the weather is going to be on the dreary side.

The low pressure system that produced last night’s thunderstorms is moving away, but another system will pass to the north today, dragging a cold front across the region. At the same time, an upper-level low pressure system will move across the region. Add those up and we’ll have plenty of clouds and some showers. Showers and drizzle will linger into the evening, and as cooler air settles in, we could even see some wet snow mix in, especially across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts.

That upper-level low moves offshore on Tuesday, but we’ll be stuck with northeast winds, resulting in plenty of clouds, some drizzle, maybe a few showers, and cool conditions. That upper-level low will start to drift back westward Tuesday night into Wednesday, keeping us trapped in the drizzle, fog, and cool weather. In one sense, this is a good thing, as a storm system will be moving off the Carolina coastline. With the upper-level low up here, it will steer that system well offshore, but that doesn’t mean it won’t have any impact. It just won’t be a nor’easter. Instead, as it passes well south and east, a trough of low pressure will extend northwestward from it, back into New England. This will bring in more clouds and a better chance of showers for Thursday into Friday, especially along the coast, where winds may also be quite gusty at times.

The low finally pulls away from the region later on Friday, resulting in some drier weather finally moving in for Saturday, along with milder conditions as high pressure builds into the Northeast. Sunday looks to be milder as well, but a cold front will start to move in by late in the day, with some more showers possible.

Monday: Plenty of clouds, maybe a few glimpses of sunshine along with some spotty drizzle. Showers may develop in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers possibly mixing with some wet snow before ending. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Clouds and some sunny breaks. High 39-46.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some low clouds and drizzle, especially along the coast. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine. High 42-49, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Cloudy with showers becoming likely. High 44-51, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, especially along the coast, showers gradually ending. High 45-52, coolest along the coast

Saturday: Low clouds and fog early, especially near the coast, then that big bright thing in the sky returns. High 45-52, coolest along the coast.

Sunday: Morning sunshine, then clouds come back in the afternoon. Showers are possible late in the day. High 48-55.

We’ve finally made it to Spring, so naturally, we’re expecting some snow. Look on the bright side – for many of you, it won’t have any impact on your commute!

Clouds will stream into the region this morning as low pressure starts to take shape off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This system will strengthen as it heads northeastward, passing south and east of Nantucket early Tuesday. Ahead of it, we could see some flurries or snow showers develop late this morning thanks to an onshore flow, but the steadier precipitation associated with the storm arrives during the mid-to-late afternoon hours. There will be some dry air in place, so as the atmosphere moistens up, it will allow temperatures to drop, so we’ll see the precipitation start off as snow for most, with rain across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Temperatures will likely be near or above freezing, so a quick change to rain is expected across much of eastern Massachusetts. The changeover should take place during the evening across the Merrimack Valley and New Hampshire Seacoast, and by midnight across the rest of southern New Hampshire. This will be a fast-moving storm, so everything should wind down before midnight. Even this close to the storm, we’ve got some significant discrepancies among the models as the how much snow to expect. There are still some models forecasting significant accumulations for parts of the area, and then there’s others like the GFS, playing the part of Alfred E. Neuman.

As for how much we’re expecting, we’ll get to that in a second. There are some facts both good and bad that go into that forecast, that we’d like to explain.
1. Temperatures will be right around freezing in many places, so what does fall as snow will be wet snow.
2. Elevation will play a role in amounts, as higher elevations should receive more snow, as they’ll be a bit colder.
3. Ground temperatures, especially pavement temperatures, are getting fairly mild now, so accumulations will be more likely on grassy surfaces.
4. The initial burst of snow will fall during the daytime. With the higher sun angle, that’ll make it a little tougher to accumulate as well. However, once it gets dark out, that isn’t a factor.
5. The closer you are to the ocean, the quicker precipitation will change to rain.

So, having said all that, here’s our forecast:
Southeastern Massachusetts/Southern Rhode Island – Zip, Zero, Nada
I-95 Belt (Boston-Providence) – A few flakes
Metro West/North Shore/Northern Rhode Island – An inch or so
Merrimack Valley/New Hampshire Seacoast – 1-2 inches
Southern New Hampshire (Nashua/Manchester/Concord) – 1-3 inches, maybe 4″ in a few spots

The jackpot will be from the Worcester Hills into the Monadnocks, where some places could see as much as 4-8 inches.

So, the storm pulls away and skies clear out on Tuesday. With sunshine, temperatures should get well into the 40s, maybe even some low 50s. So, you probably won’t even need to shovel, not that you really can go anywhere. The nice weather doesn’t last long as another system quickly follows for later Wednesday into early Thursday. This system will likely take a similar track to today’s storm, but the atmosphere will be a bit warmer, so this should be mainly rain, with some wet snow at the start across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley.

High pressure builds back for Thursday into early Friday with drier conditions. We may be looking at yet another storm bringing in some rain on Saturday before drier weather returns on Sunday

Monday: Cloudy with snow developing in the afternoon, except rain across southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island. High 3542.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with snow changing to rain from southeast to northwest before ending. Low 31-38.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 47-54.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, clouds move back in overnight. Low 30-37.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely late in the day and at night, possibly mixed with some wet snow, mainly across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. High 40-47.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers ending early, some sun may develop in the afternoon. High 43-50.

Friday: A sunny start, then clouds return, breezy. High 49-56.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 47-54.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 51-58.

While everything around comes to a grinding halt, the weather does not, which means that here at StormHQ, The Show Must Go On. This week, that will be a variety show.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, so we’ll have a sunny but rather chilly Monday. The dry weather won’t last much longer though, as the high moves offshore and a disturbance moves into the Great Lakes. This will bring some precipitation in for Tuesday. While most of us will just see some rain, there could be some wet snow mixed in at that start Tuesday morning across southern New Hampshire. We’re not expecting any accumulation, and despite what this winter has been like, this is a fairly normal occurrence in mid-March. The rain ends late in the day and high pressure builds back in with sunshine and seasonable conditions returning for Wednesday.

The latter half of the week isn’t looking that great right now. We’re not expecting any big storms, but a series of smaller ones. The first one moves in for Wednesday night and Thursday. With some cold air in place, this one may start as snow for much of the area (except southern areas), but should change over to rain during the morning. If there’s any accumulation (and it is a possibility this time), it will be most likely across grassy areas and at elevation. Would we be surprised if we end up with some coatings from southern New Hampshire into the northern and western suburbs of Boston? Of course not. In fact, one model shows the potential for a lot more than just coatings. if the trend continues that way, we’ll do a special update later in the week.

The rain ends during the Thursday evening, but another storm quickly follows. This one will move across the Great Lakes, with significantly milder air expected on Friday. Of course, it will be accompanied by rain, but it’s not like you can do much to head out an enjoy it anyway, right? The rain ends Friday night as a cold front moves through, then high pressure builds in next weekend with sunshine and colder weather once again.

Monday: Sunshine fades behind increasing and thickening afternoon clouds. High 34-41.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 26-33, but temperatures may hold steady or drift up a few degrees after midnight.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers likely, possibly starting as some wet snow across southern New Hampshire. High 44-51.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Sunshine gives way to afternoon clouds again, snow develops late at night, except rain along the South Coast. High 43-50.

Thursday: Cloudy with snow changing to rain, ending by evening. Some accumulation is possible, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 43-50.

Friday: Cloudy, breezy, and quite mild with showers redeveloping. High 62-69.

Saturday: A cloudy start, then skies become mostly sunny, breezy. High 43-50.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 36-43.

March Madness is upon us, and we’re not just talking about the NCAA basketball tournament. We’ve got some interesting weather coming up this week.

High pressure slides offshore today, and with southwest winds flowing around that high, we’ve got some very mild weather on tap. Temperatures should get into the 60s in many locations today, with some spots possibly topping 70. Not everywhere will be that warm though. Along the South Coast, those southwest winds will be blowing over water that is still in the 40s, so it”ll be much cooler across the Cape, Islands, Southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island. A backdoor cold front may move into the New Hampshire Seacoast and possibly northeastern Massachusetts tonight, with much cooler conditions, but it will likely head back northward on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of the region should be quite mild once again despite some cloudcover. That front brings in some showers late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

High pressure returns on Wednesday with some sunshine and cooler conditions. The dry weather doesn’t last too long as another weak system moves in Wednesday night. This one will produce some rain showers, but a few wet snowflakes are possible, especially across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley.

Dry weather returns on Thursday, but again, it looks like it will be a brief respite. Another system moves in for Friday with more rain. While it doesn’t look that heavy right now, it will be a bit more substantial that the system Wednesday night. High pressure builds in behind that system with dry and seasonably cool conditions next weekend.

Monday: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds at times. High 62-69, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 41-48, except 34-41 from Essex County up into the New Hampshire Seacoast and Southern Maine.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds, breezy, some showers may develop late in the day. High 57-64, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers likely during the evening, some clearing is possible late at night. Low 36-43.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny in the morning, clouds return in the afternoon, chance for a few showers at night, maybe a few wet snowflakes mixed in as well. High 48-55.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine. High 45-52.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild again with some rain likely. High 50-57.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High 44-51.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 39-46.

We’re into March which means that Spring has arrived (meteorological spring). It’ll even feel like Spring for a good portion of the week too.

We start the week off with a fantastic day, probably the pick of the week. High pressure slides offshore and a warm front moves through, so we’ll have sunshine after some morning clouds and temperatures possibly getting into the 50s in many areas. A cold front spreads clouds back in late in the day, with some showers possible at night.

Tuesday looks to be another mild day with temperatures well into the 50s, maybe even 60 in spots. A weak system will approach the region during the day, so we’ll have plenty of clouds and some sunny breaks, but some rain is expected to move in during the evening and at night. The rain shouldn’t be that heavy, and it should end by daybreak. Behind the system, breezy and somewhat cooler conditions settle in for Wednesday as high pressure starts to build in, but temperatures should remain above normal. Thursday remains dry and mild with high pressure in control.

Friday is where things start to get interesting. Low pressure will be moving across the Great Lakes while a second low pressure area moves off the Southeast coastline. One or both of these systems could impact us, but that’s where the uncertainty lies. You may hear some of the TV meteorologists talking about the systems “phasing”. What that means is when you get the two branches of the jet stream (northern and southern) to join together or “phase”. When this happens, you usually get the disturbances moving through each jet stream to join together and create a big storm system. When that occurs with cold air in place, we get big snowstorms. When they don’t phase, we just get your average run-of-the-mill storm system moving through. That’s what we’re looking for with the potential on Friday/Saturday. Some of the models have been hinting at this possibility, but some don’t show the phasing until well offshore, which is great for snow-lovers in Nova Scotia, but not most of New England. Given how this winter has gone, we’re leaning away from the idea of a snowstorm, but it’s obviously possible. At the very least, we’ll likely have some snow or rain from the northern system as it moves through. We’ll keep an eye on this for the next few days, and if necessary, have a special blog later in the week.

High pressure builds in behind the system with colder and drier conditions, but they’ll likely be short-lived, with another warmup to start next week.

Monday: Morning clouds, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 45-52.

Monday night: Clouds return along with a few showers. Low 36-43.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, showers develop late in the day. High 52-59.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and breezy with some light rain likely. Low 36-43.

Wednesday: Becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 46-53.

Thursday: Sunshine and lots of it. High 44-51.

Friday: Cloudy with rain or snow possible late in the day and at night. High 41-48.

Saturday: Rain or snow ending in the morning, some late-day sunshine is possible, breezy. High 32-39.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 41-48.