As we get to Christmas Week, we’ve got a very quiet pattern shaping up for the region. That doesn’t mean the forecast is simple though.

We start the week off on a mild note with high pressure still in a control, but a weak cold front will move through late in the day with little fanfare. It’s most noticeable impacts will be behind it, as temperatures drop back close to seasonal levels for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with highs in the 30s instead of the 40s to lower 50s most places will enjoy today.

Thursday looks to be a tad milder, but we’ll have a weak disturbance moving across the region. It may produce a few rain or snow showers late Thursday night into part of Friday, but this will not be a widespread precipitation-maker. High pressure builds back in for Friday night into Saturday before we turn out attention to the next storm. This one also has some big questions, but for now, it looks like we could have some rain around here next Sunday:

Monday: Sunshine gives way to some late-day clouds. High 46-53.

Monday night: Cloudy in the evening, then clearing after midnight. Low 25-32.

Christmas Eve: Partly to mostly sunny and cooler. High 35-42.

Christmas Eve night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 18-25.

Christmas Day: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds. High 34-41.

Thursday: More clouds than sun. High 34-41.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks, chance for a few snow or rain showers early. High 34-41.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 39-46.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of rain. High 39-46.

Thanksgiving is upon us, and at least it shouldn’t be as cold as last year. We’ve got a few things to worry about before worrying about leftovers though.

Similar to last week, we’re starting off this week with a bit of an icing problem. Many roads remained wet after yesterday’s rain, and temperatures dropped below freezing this morning, so again, if you’re heading out this morning, be careful as untreated surfaces could be slippery. We will see sunshine though, as high pressure builds into the region. That’ll keep it on cool side today, but as the high slides off to the east, milder weather will settle in for Tuesday.

Moving along, Wednesday is a big travel day for many people, and also the last work day of the week for plenty of people as well. Well, it’ll be mild, but also damp. Low pressure will pass north and west of the region, so we’ll be on the warm side of it for a while, but it will drag a cold front through late in the day. That’ll bring an end to the rain, but also usher colder air in for Thanksgiving. It won’t be as cold as last year, but it will still be cool and breezy, so bundle up if you’re heading outside, especially if you’re heading to one of the traditional Thanksgiving high school football games.

Sunny and cool conditions are expected on Friday as high pressure builds in, so dress warmly if you’re heading out for some Black Friday sales. The dry and cool weather continues into Saturday. Sunday, however, is still a big question mark. Low pressure will move into the Midwest for the weekend, but could impact our area on Sunday. The models don’t agree on the evolution of the system, and as a result, have a wide variety of ideas. At this point, almost anything could happen. We could have snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, any combination of all of these, or even none of them if the system ends up moving slower than expected. For now, we’ll just say that Sunday looks unsettled, and we should have a better idea of what to expect later in the week.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds, watch out for black ice in the morning. High 45-52.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 49-56.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers likely during the afternoon and evening. High 47-54.

Thanksgiving: A mix of sun and clouds, a lingering shower or two are possible across parts of Cape Cod, breezy. High 41-48.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Saturday: Sunshine gradually fades behind increasing clouds. High 34-41.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of…….something. High 38-45.

Ice in your drink? That’s a good thing. Ice on an injury? It helps, so it’s good too. Ice on the roadways? Not good at all. Unfortunately, some of you may have to deal with that this morning.

The low pressure system that brought heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding to the Carolinas over the weekend will pass south and east of New England today, bring some of those same issues here, but also introducing other problems. It will bring in some rainfall to our area today, with some strong winds, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Some coastal flooding is possible across eastern Massachusetts around high tide as well. However, the biggest problem will already be ongoing (or maybe even over) by the time most of you read this.

Some light precipitation will move into the region this morning ahead of the system. Temperatures will also be below freezing, mainly north and west of Interstate 95. What happens when you have subfreezing temperatures at the surface, warmer air aloft, and some precipitation falling? If you guessed freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle, then you are correct! That’s bad news if you’ve got to be out and about on the roads this morning. Most cities and towns should have pre-treated the roads, but some of the side roads and also bridges and overpasses could be a little slick this morning, so use caution and give yourself a little extra time. Temperatures should warm above freezing most places this morning before the steadier and heavier rain arrives, so there shouldn’t be too many problems.

After a miserable day today (temperatures in the 30s, gusty winds, and rain – you have a better word to describe it?), the system pulls away tonight, but one last batch of precipitation moves through overnight and early Tuesday as an upper-level low pressure area moves across the Northeast. This will be mostly rain, but as some colder air starts to move in behind the storm, some wet snowflakes could mix in, especially across the higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire.

Once the system pulls away, we dry out on Tuesday, but the clouds remain in place into Wednesday as another system passes offshore. This one will be too far offshore to produce anything more than clouds, but it will help to bring colder air down from the north. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and Thursday with clearing and chilly weather.

Clouds come back late Thursday as low pressure heads toward southeastern Canada. That low passes by to the north and west on Friday, dragging a cold front across the region. It will get mild ahead of the front, but some more rain is expected as well. Once the front moves through, high pressure builds back in for Saturday with another shot of cold weather. Sunday is still up in the air a bit. We’ve got one model showing a weak system passing by to the north, with a few snow showers, while another model has a system moving in from the southwest, with some rain, and a third model has high pressure building in.

If you’re looking ahead to Thanksgiving already, well, it’s too early to try and pin down any specifics, but most of the models have a fairly potent storm system moving out of the Midwest and towards the Northeast sometime in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. For now at least, the models are showing mostly rain, but again, it’s a long ways away. If you’re traveling for the holiday, just keep an eye on the forecast. We’ll have more details in next week’s outlook obviously.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy (windy across Cape Cod) with some freezing drizzle north and west of I=95 in the morning, changing to plain rain by midday. Occasional showers becoming a steady rain during the afternoon south and east of I-95. High 33-40 north and west of Boston, 40-47 south of Boston.

Monday night: Cloudy with some showers likely. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers ending in the morning, possibly mixed with some wet snow over the higher terrain. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds. High 38-45.

Thursday: That big bright thing in the sky returns, though some high clouds move in late in the day. High 41-48.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and milder with some showers likely. High 49-56.

Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and colder. High 38-45.

Sunday: Clouds return again with a chance for some showers. High 40-47.

Uh-oh. It’s that time. You’ve been dreading it, but you knew it was coming eventually. We’re going to use a four-letter word that you hate. That’s right, the word is “snow”. It is November after all, and your luck will run out eventually.

We’ll start the week under the influence of high pressure, so another dry and cool day is expected today. A weak cold front moves through on Tuesday, producing some showers, but they shouldn’t be too heavy or last that long. Ahead of the front, it actually might be a bit mild around here. Don’t get too used to it, because high pressure returns for Wednesday with dry and cool weather once again. This brings us to the end of the week.

Another cold front will move through on Thursday, with some rain likely. The front will likely stall out, but where it stalls is still a big question mark. It’s an important one too, as a wave of low pressure will likely ride along the front. One model has the front stall out well to the south, with the wave staying well offshore. This would allow high pressure to build in, and result in a dry but very cold Friday, and into the weekend. Other models have the front stall just south of the region, and the wave pass a lot closer. This would likely result widespread precipitation across the region, with at least some of it falling as snow across the interior, possibly even to the coastline. High pressure would then build in behind the storm for a dry and very chilly weekend.

There’s still plenty of uncertainty with this storm, and at this point, we’re not sure which way to lean. On one hand, some of the models have been indicating for quite some time now the possibility of snow for parts of the area somewhere in the November 9-13 time frame. However, they’ve been changing with the details on nearly every run, so while our confidence has growing that we’d some “some” snow during that period, we really couldn’t go into deeper detail than that. At this point, we still can’t, because there is still little agreement with the models. However, should we end up dealing with a storm system, the closer you are to the coast, the less likely you’ll see accumulating snow. Ocean temperatures are still in the upper 40s to lower 50s, so a wind blowing off the ocean would bring milder air in along the coast. Plus, the ground is still relatively mild. Sure, we could see some snow even at the coastline, but the better chance for accumulating snow would be north and west of Boston. The farther inland, the better the odds. Obviously, we’ll keep an eye on the evolution of this system as the week goes on, and if needed, will write a special blog post later in the week.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Tuesday: Some morning sunshine, then becoming cloudy with a few showers likely during the afternoon. High 54-61.

Tuesday night: Any lingering showers end during the evening, then skies become mostly clear. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 44-51.

Thursday: Some early sun, then becoming cloudy with showers developing late in the day. Showers may change to snow overnight, especially north and west of Boston. High 47-54.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow north and west of Boston in the morning, chance of rain possibly mixed with wet snow from Boston southward. Skies will clear out late in the day. High 34-41.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 32-39.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 41-48.

One final note – several models show the potential for another system towards the middle of next week that may also contain the “s” word. Welcome to winter!

Changes are coming, right about when we flip the calendar until November. Before that? Let’s just say that this will be a good week to get stuff done around the house in you’re not working.

The low pressure that brought us all the rain and wind yesterday? Yeah, it hasn’t gone too far away yet. It’ll keep some clouds around today, especially close to the coastline, with some patchy drizzle, fog, and maybe even a few showers. It may also help produce a little coastal flooding, as tides remain astronomically high, and persistent northeast to east winds will help push the water into the coastline.

The low starts to pull away Monday night and high pressure starts to build into the Canadian Maritimes, so things get better for Tuesday and Wednesday, right? Sorta. We’ll still have some residual moisture around thanks to easterly winds, that’ll keep clouds and maybe some drizzle or a few showers around. A weak trough of low pressure may bring in some additional showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

OK, so once the trough moves through, things finally improve, right? Wrong, they go downhill even more. Low pressure moving across the Ohio Valley will move into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. Ahead of it, we should get pretty mild around here, thanks to some gusty south to southwest winds. However, we’ll also have plenty of clouds and some rain, possibly a decent amount of rain. (For trick-or-treaters: Find an umbrella) A strong cold front brings an end to the rain sometime Friday morning or early afternoon.

Alright, so things will finally get better for next weekend, right? Yes and no. High pressure will build in, so we’ll have sunshine returning. That’s good. However, much cooler air will also move in (it will be November after all), and for some of you, that’s not a good thing. Also, don’t forget that Daylight Saving Time ends next Sunday morning at 2am. That means you get an extra hour of sleep!

Monday: Low clouds, fog, drizzle, maybe a few sunny breaks well inland in the morning. High 51-58.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some drizzle and fog around. Low 44-51.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with a chance for some drizzle or a shower, a few sunny breaks are also possible. High 53-60.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers likely. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and milder with a few showers around. High 60-67.

Thursday (Halloween): Cloudy, breezy, and mild with scattered showers. High 59-66.

Friday: Windy with rain ending in the morning, then becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 61-68 in the morning, then temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds, much cooler. High 49-56.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Finally, we’ve seen plenty of people releasing their “Winter Outlook” over the past week or two, and more will be coming in the next few weeks. Lots of these will fail spectacularly, others may end up close to the truth. But we’re going to give you ours right now. Not only that, we’re going to guarantee that it’s 100% accurate! You read that right. So, without further delay, here’s our outlook: The months of December through March will be colder than temperatures are now, and there will be some snow. If you want any more details than that, we’ll keep providing them through the winter, 7 days at a time, more often when there are storms.