Weekly Outlook: August 9-15, 2021

For the first time in a while, we’ve fairly typical summertime weather coming for a large chunk of the upcoming week.

We’ve got a frontal system south of the region today and a wave of low pressure will ride along it, bringing in some showers and cooler than normal temperatures. However, that front will lift northward as a warm front on Tuesday, allowing warm and humid air to move back in for Tuesday. That’s just the appetizer before the main course.

Temperatures will be several degrees below normal across the region today. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

For Wednesday through Friday, we’ll have a Bermuda high sitting offshore, pumping hot and humid weather into the area. Temperatures will get into the 90s across a large portion of the region, with heat indices possibly approaching 100 in many locations. It’ll be a great time to head to the beach, out to the pool, or to sit in the air conditioning. We will have some showers and thunderstorms popping up each afternoon, which will take the edge off the heat in some areas. Any storms that do form could produce some heavy downpours, but widespread severe weather isn’t likely at this time.

The heat index could approach 100 Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A cold front will move through on Saturday, bringing an end to the heat. Some showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front, but the timing is still in question. This will have implications for not only temperatures during the day, but whether there is a threat for severe weather or not. High pressure builds in behind the front on Sunday with cooler and drier conditions.

Finally, we’re going to take a look at the tropics, as the Atlantic is showing signs of waking up. There are two areas in the Atlantic that are being monitored right now. The first is a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. This system could get better organized over the next few days and become a tropical depression. It will cross the Leeward Islands later today before heading towards Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Whether it develops or not, a period of heavy rain and gusty winds is likely from the Lesser Antilles into Puerto Rico Monday into Tuesday. Another tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the first disturbance. This one is less organized at the moment, but could develop as it continues westward as well. We’ll keep an eye on both of these, and if anything develops, we’ll likely have a special blog post about it.

The Atlantic is starting to wake up. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

We’re getting into the time of year that we need to start paying attention to the tropics around here. While the storms well out in the Atlantic give us plenty of advance notice that they’re heading this way, it’s the ones like Bob that we really have to worry about in August and September. Bob formed as a tropical depression near the Bahamas on Friday August 16, 1991 and made landfall on the south coast of Rhode Island as a Category 2 Hurricane on Monday afternoon August 19. That’s not a lot of time to prepare for a hurricane.

Storms can form in the Bahamas at this time of year and give us little time to prepare for them. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Monday: Patchy fog early, otherwise more clouds than sunshine, chance for a few showers, favoring the South Coast. High 74-81.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, some drizzle or fog is likely. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 78-85.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm, humid. High 86-93.

Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, and humid with a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High 87-94.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms late in the day, humid. High 86-93.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely. High 80-87.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 76-83.

Weekend Outlook: August 6-9, 2021

After a good soaking this morning, drier air is on the way, but the weekend won’t be completely dry.

Much of Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts received 2-4 inches of rain in the past 24 hours. Image provided by NOAA.

High pressure starts to build into the region tonight, with skies clearing out by Friday morning across much of the region. This sets up a rather nice day on Friday with sunshine and warmer temperatures. A good chunk of Saturday looks decent too, but an approaching disturbance will spread clouds in, with some showers possible at night and into parts of Sunday as it moves through. Sunday won’t be a washout, but it will be cloudy and a little cooler with some showers around. High pressure builds back in on Monday with some sunshine returning.

Saturday looks quite warm across the area. Image provided by WeatherNBell.

Thursday night: Gradual clearing. Low 58-65.

Friday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 80-87. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-10 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Saturday: Thickening clouds. High 82-89. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 63-70.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds with some showers around. High 77-84. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 61-68.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82. Offshore: Southeast winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

The Atlantic is starting to wake up once again. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Finally, we’ll touch on the tropics, since we’re into August, which is when activity usually starts to ramp up, and this year is no different. There are two areas being watched in the Atlantic right now. The first wave will bring some showers and breezy conditions to the Caribbean this weekend and early next week, but shouldn’t amount to much. It’s the wave that is just moving off of Africa that bears watching. Some of the models show that system developing over the next several days. Obviously it’s WAAAAAAY to early to determine if it will become anything or impact any land, but these waves will become more common over the next several weeks, with many storms expected to form. Colorado State University issued their updated hurricane season forecast this morning, and they are expecting another 13 named storms this season. Late August and most of September is when we especially need to be alert up here. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.

Weekly Outlook: August 2-8, 2021

As we get into the first week of August, we’ll leave the wet pattern of July behind, though parts of the region could still see a decent amount of rain during the next 7 days.

Much of the region received more than 10 inches of rain in July. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Low pressure pulls away from the region this morning, with any lingering showers coming to an end. However, an upper-level disturbance will move through this afternoon, possibly triggering another shower or two. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with dry and seasonable conditions.

Wednesday is a little bit of a question mark for part of the area. High pressure will remain in control resulting in a dry day for most of us. However, the front that moved through this morning will stall out offshore, and a wave of low pressure will ride up along it on Wednesday. This may bring in some showers to parts of Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island. Some of the models show the potential for some heavy rain in these areas, but this will be dependent on how close the wave actually gets to us.

Most of the models don’t bring Wednesday’s rain beyond southeastern Mass. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Another system follows for late Thursday into early Friday, but again, any rain may be limited to southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, depending on how close the system passes offshore. Another system may move through next weekend with more showers possible, but temperatures will start to warm up once again as a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic starts to strengthen.

Average high temperatures in early August should be in the lower to middle 80s across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Showers end early, then becoming partly sunny with a slight chance for another shower during the afternoon. High 74-81.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers possible across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. High 74-81, a cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, showers are possible late in the day and at night across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. High 73-80.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers. High 80-87.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, a shower is possible. High 81-88.

Weekend Outlook: July 30-August 2, 2021

We’re entering the final days of July, but part of the weekend may feel more like the final days of August.

We’ve got a rather nice afternoon in progress, but changes are coming. A cold front will move across the region tonight, with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall, which would be a fitting end to what has been a record or near-record July for rainfall across the region. While most of the severe weather associated with this system should remain south of our area, we need to keep an eye on areas near the South Coast overnight. If there are going to be any severe storms, this would be the most likely spot.

Most of the models keep the heavy rain to our north, but some have heavy rainfall around here too. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Rain ends Friday morning, but with an upper-level low pressure area moving across the Northeast, we’ll still have some clouds, and possibly another shower or two in the afternoon. High pressure then builds in with clearing and a rather cool airmass settling in for Friday night and Saturday. If you’re up early Saturday morning, you might see temperatures in the 40s in some spots. After a comfortable day on Saturday, temperatures will moderate again on Sunday ahead of another system. This system may produce a few showers Sunday night, then high pressure returns on Monday.

It could be rather cool around here Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 62-69.

Friday: Showers end early followed by partial clearing, though clouds and possibly another shower return in the afternoon, breezy. High 77-84. Offshore: Southwest to west 10-15 knots gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Friday night: Clear and cool. Low 49-56.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77. Offshore: West 10-15 knots gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-5 feet.

Saturday night: Increasing clouds. Low 52-59.

Sunday: More clouds than sunshine. High 73-80. Offshore: Southwest 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for some shower. Low 56-63.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 74-81. Offshore: West 5-10 knots, seas 3-5 feet.

Weekly Outlook: July 26 – August 1, 2021

July has featured record or near-record rainfall across the region, but as it comes to a close, so does the very wet pattern we’ve been stuck in.

A large swath of the region has received over 10 inches of rain this month. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We start the week off with high pressure building in today, bringing us sunshine and warm temperatures, with a few places possibly getting to 90 this afternoon. Humidity levels will be fairly comfortable as drier air settles into the region. Our dry weather won’t last long as a cold front approaches on Tuesday, with some showers and thunderstorms accompanying it during the afternoon and evening. It’ll be quite warm ahead of the front again, with temperatures well into the 80s. Drier air settles back in on Wednesday along with cooler temperatures, but again, the dry air will be short-lived. Another frontal system approaches on Thursday with more showers and thunderstorms likely.

Dewpoints will only be in the 50s Wednesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Friday, we’ll have an upper-level trough settling into the Northeast, which means that we could see a few showers popping up during the afternoon. High pressure builds in on Saturday with cool and dry conditions. Yet another frontal system approaches on Sunday, with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible.

At the start of August, average high temperatures should be in the lower to middle 80s around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 82-89.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Increasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms likely late in the day. High 82-89.

Tuesday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, cooler. High 72-79.

Thursday: More clouds than sun with showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day and at night, breezy. High 71-78.

Friday: Partly sunny and breezy, slight chance for a shower. High 74-81.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 71-78.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 76-83.

Finally, we’ll leave you with this uplifting thought from the good folks at the National Weather Service office in Caribou, ME:

Weekend Outlook: July 23-26, 2021

Now that the sun has finally returned, we might actually see it more than a few times over the next few days. Don’t worry, there’s still some rain in the forecast too.

Just some fair-weather cumulus out there today – a welcome change from the last several days. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

High pressure will continue to build in tonight, which means that you might be able to give the air conditioner a break and open the windows tonight. We will see some clouds come back on Friday as a weak disturbance crosses the region, with a shower or thunderstorm possible in a few spots as well, but don’t go cancelling any outdoor plans you may have for the afternoon or evening. High pressure returns on Saturday with sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures. The next system will be on its way though, with clouds moving in at night, and some showers and thunderstorms likely on Sunday as a warm front crosses the region. The day won’t be a washout, but there will be plenty of cloudcover and it will be noticeably more humid than Saturday. Showers may linger into early Monday before a cold front crosses the region, with some clearing behind it late in the day.

Monday could end up as a warm day ahead of the cold front. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few late-day showers or thunderstorms. High 74-81. Offshore: Northwest winds 5-10 knots becoming onshore in the afternoon, seas 1-3 feet.

Friday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 55-62.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, though some clouds may start to move back in late in the day. High 74-81. Offshore: North to northwest winds around 5 knots becoming onshore in the afternoon, seas 2-3 feet.

Saturday night: Increasing clouds, showers are possible towards daybreak. Low 60-67.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with some showers or thunderstorms expected. High 73-80. Offshore: Southwest to south winds 15-20 knots, gusts to 25 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for more showers or storms. Low 63-70.

Monday: Chance for a shower early, some clearing possible late in the day. High 80-87. Offshore: Southwest to west winds 10-15 knots gusts to 20 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Weekly Outlook: July 19-25, 2021

We’ve got good news and bad news this week. The good news is that we will have a few dry days this week. The bad news is that there’s more rain on the way.

An upper-level disturbance will cross the region today, which means more clouds and more showers, though the day shouldn’t be a washout. Rainfall totals should be on the light side, which will be a welcome change from the weekend. The cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cool side during the daytime. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with warmer and more humid conditions. It’s tempting to say that we’ll have a dry day, but it wouldn’t surprise us if a few showers and thunderstorms developed in the afternoon or evening, especially well north and west of Boston. By Wednesday, we’ll have a better chance for showers and storms as a cold front approaches the region. In fact, some of the storms that do develop could become strong, with gusty winds and heavy downpours possible (just what we need – more heavy rain!)

Temperatures could get close to 90 across the region on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in behind the front on Thursday with cooler and drier conditions, but again, we can’t completely rule out an isolated shower or two during the afternoon. By Friday, another upper-level low pressure area moves in with more clouds and some showers possible, though the extent of the shower activity is still a question mark. Saturday looks to be drier with high pressure trying to build in, but it won’t last long. Sunday could be a bit more unsettled as another system could bring in more widespread showers and thunderstorms, but the timing of this system is in question, as the activity could hold off until Sunday night or Monday.

The models don’t agree on the timing for a storm system that may impact the region on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Drizzle and fog early, otherwise plenty of clouds with a few showers possible. High 71-78.

Monday night: Clearing. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, maybe a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a shower or two. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening, some of which could be quite strong. High 76-83.

Thursday: Partly sunny, an isolated shower is possible. High 74-81.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds with showers possible. High 72-79.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. High 72-79.

Weekend Outlook: July 16-19, 2021

We’re in a typical summertime pattern for a few days, but more rain is on the way.

High pressure is sitting offshore, which means another hot and humid day is expected on Friday, with temperatures well into the 80s and lower 90s in most locations. A few late-day showers and thunderstorms are possible, but activity shouldn’t be that widespread. An approaching frontal system will spread more clouds in for Saturday, keeping temperatures down a bit, with a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially late Saturday and Saturday night. Some of these storms may produce heavy rain, because that’s what seems to happen with every storm this month. That front will stall out near or just south of the region for Sunday and Monday. That means it’ll be cooler with more cloud cover and a chance for more showers and thunderstorms, though areas near the South Coast could remain warmer, depending on where the front actually stalls out.

Some heavy rain is possible across parts of the region this weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 85-92.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, any showers end in the evening. Low 64-71.

Saturday: Plenty of clouds, showers and thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon. High 79-86.

Saturday night: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce heavy rain. Low 63-70.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. High 72-79.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: More clouds than sun with a shower or thunderstorm possible. High 74-81.

Weekly Outlook: July 12-18, 2021

We’ve got showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for nearly every day this week, but aside from today, it may not actually be that wet in most spots.

Flash Flood Watches are in effect for much of the region. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

A warm front is going to take its time crossing the region today and Tuesday. A wave of low pressure riding along the front will bring in rain today, some of which may be heavy. Given the amount of rain we’ve had over the past 2 weeks, the ground is already saturated in many areas, so additional rain will lead to flooding problems. As a result, flash flood watches have been issued for much of the region. Tuesday looks to be drier, but still on the cool side, as the front will take its time lifting northward. A few showers can’t be ruled out.

Some locally heavy rainfall is possibly today, especially north of the Mass Pike. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The front finally lifts through on Wednesday, allowing warm to hot and humid weather to return, and it will remain in place into Saturday. With the hot and humid weather will come a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Those showers and storms will become more numerous on Sunday as a cold front moves in.

Saturday looks to be the hottest day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with periods of rain and showers, mainly during the morning. High 67-74.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 58-65.

Tuesday: Clouds and a few sunny breaks, chance for a shower or two. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Wednesday: More clouds than sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. High 76-83.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 79-86.

Friday: Partly sunny, a shower or thunderstorm may pop up. High 82-89.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day and at night. High 82-89.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 78-85.

Weekend Outlook: July 9-12, 2021

We’re not sure if you’ve heard, but Tropical Storm Elsa is heading this way. It have have some impacts around here tonight and Friday.

Flash Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Northeast, with Tropical Storm Warnings along the coast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

As of 2pm EDT, Elsa was centered about 25 miles southwest of Raleigh, NC and moving toward the northeast at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are down to 45 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Connecticut from New Haven eastward, coastal Rhode Island, and nearly all of the coast of Massachusetts from the Mouth of the Merrimack River southward (sorry Salisbury, you don’t get to play), including Cape Cod and the Islands. Elsa will continue northeastward tonight, turning more toward the east-northeast on Friday, likely passing right across southeastern Massachusetts.

Winds may gust to 40 mph or more across parts of RI and southeastern MA on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Tropical systems have different characteristics when they get up this way, compared to how they look in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. They take on a “rain to the left, wind to the right” appearance. This means that the heavy rain shifts to the left side of the storms track, while most of the strong winds are to the right of the track. In this case, that means most of the wind will be confined to parts of southern RI, southeastern MA, and the offshore waters, but much of the rest of the region can expect heavy rain. How much rain? Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches and possibly heavier, most of it falling between about 8am and 2pm on Friday. Oh, an just to add to the fun for the folks in southern RI and southeastern MA, these systems can and usually do produce some short-lived weak tornadoes, mainly in the right-front quadrant of the storm.

Elsa will produce heavy rain, especially north and west of I-95. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Before Elsa gets here, we’ll have some showers and thunderstorms to deal with this evening and tonight, thanks to a stalled out frontal system draped across the South Coast. Once Elsa’s rain moves out late Friday, high pressure will try to build back in on Saturday, but we’ll still have plenty of moisture around, which means we could pop a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Warm and humid air moves back in for Sunday and Monday (and into the middle of next week), with some showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon, especially Monday.

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Rain and showers redevelop late at night. Low 60-67, a little warmer along the South Coast.

Friday: Windy with rain, heavy at times, tapering off in the afternoon. High 72-79. Offshore: East Coast Southeast 15-25 knots, gusts to 40 knots, becoming northwest late in the day, seas 3-6 feet. South Coast: Southeast to south winds 20-40 knots, gusts to 50 knots, seas 6-10 feet.

Friday night: Showers end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 73-80. Offshore: West to northwest 5-10 knots, seas 3-6 feet.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a shower or thunderstorm is possible during the afternoon. High 75-82. Offshore: East to southeast winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: Partly sunny, chance for a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 77-84. Offshore: South winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.