The last few days have been fairly mild around here, and even milder air is coming in for the first half of the upcoming week. So naturally, we’re talking about a snowstorm for tonight.

Low pressure is over the Tennessee Valley at midday, and will quickly move towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline this evening, passing south of New England as it intensifies tonight. Even though the sun is shining now, clouds will quickly move in this afternoon, with snow developing late this evening, around 9pm or so, give or take an hour. Snow will continue overnight, with the possibility for some briefly moderate to heavy snow. Since most of you will be sleeping, this shouldn’t cause too many problems. A change to rain seems likely across parts of Cape Cod and the Islands, possibly even into extreme southeastern Massachusetts.

Everything winds down near or a little after daybreak. For most of us, a general 3 to 5 inches of snow is expected, with a few spots possibly seeing 6 or 7 inches. Across Cape Cod, where a change to rain is likely, amounts of 1 to 3 inches seem more plausible at this time.

The snow won’t last too long though. The sun will return Sunday afternoon, with temperatures getting up into the 40s. That will help to quickly melt a lot of what fell overnight. Temperatures will drop back below freezing Sunday night, so things may ice up once again. Use caution if you’re heading out for anything. Even warmer weather is heading in for the start of the week. A warm front will move through on Monday, with some showers preceding the front late in the day. Once the front moves through, unseasonably warm conditions are expected for Tuesday and especially Wednesday. On Tuesday, high temperatures should get into the upper 50s and 60s away from the South Coast. On Wednesday, we could challenge some record highs, with some places possibly making a run at 70 degrees. A cold front will move through late in the day on Wednesday, bringing an end to the warm weather, so enjoy the early taste of Spring while it’s here.

So, as you may have heard from the relentless media hype over the past few days, we’ve got a storm headed our way on Thursday. While this will be an extraordinary storm for places like Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, up here, we’ve seen a lot worse.

Snow and sleet have been falling today across portions of northern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Several inches are expected to fall today, especially along the coastline. Given how rarely this happens in some of these locations, it will probably bring the region to a halt, while those of us in the North point and laugh. Don’t worry, our time is coming tomorrow.

The storm that is producing the snow down South will move up the East Coast later today and Thursday, rapidly intensifying as it does so. You may have heard the terms “bombogenesis” or “weather bomb” used as part of the media hype in the last few days to describe this storm. These are terms that have been around for quite some time. Bombogenesis happens when the lowest pressure of a storm drops more than 24 millibar in a 24 hour period. This happens several times a year with storms off the East Coast. It is nothing out of the ordinary. The reason this storm is getting the attention, aside from the Southern snow, is that the pressures are much lower than a typical winter storm. This will be a strong storm system, but again, we’ve had powerful storms off the East Coast plenty of times before.

As the storm gets cranked up off the East Coast, it will generate strong winds,, especially along the coast. While we’re looking at wind gusts to 40-50 mph, possibly even higher, things could be a lot worse. We don’t have a large high pressure system to our north (more on that in a minute). If we had a high to our north, increasing the pressure gradient between the storm and the high, winds would be even stronger. The tighter the gradient, the stronger the winds. This is why we can have strong winds with weaker systems, if there is a large high in place to the north.

Along with the winds, coastal residents also have to worry about coastal flooding. Since we’re just past the full moon, tides remain astronomically high. Add in strong onshore winds, and residents along north to northeast facing beaches could experience some coastal flooding around the midday/early afternoon high tide on Thursday. By the time we get to the high tide Thursday night, winds will have shifted into the west or northwest, thus limiting the flooding potential.

Back to the high pressure, or lack thereof, to our north. High pressure has been sitting to our north or northwest all week, which is why we’ve been frigid since before New Year’s. That high has shifted offshore now, allowing somewhat milder air to settle in today. Normally, to get heavy snow, we need that high pressure area to stay to our north or northwest, to lock the cold air into place. With that not the case this time, we’re going to have to deal with a rain/snow line. That seems hard to believe given how cold the past week has been, but it is the case. Water temperatures are still in the lower 40s off our coast, so a strong onshore wind will warm up the lowest layers of the atmosphere enough for a change to rain. This seems like across Cape Cod, but the question becomes, how far inland does that rain/snow line penetrate? The models have varying ideas on this, but a portion of southeastern Massachusetts may see a changeover.

So, we’ve talked about strong winds, coastal flooding, and a rain/snow line. Now, for the only part that most of you are interested in – snow. First, we’ll talk about the timing. Snow should develop from south to north across the region between about 3 and 6am. So, by the time most of you wake up, it will likely be snowing. The snow will end between 7 and 10pm for most of us. The worst of the storm will be between about 9am and 4pm. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, which combined with strong winds, will create whiteout or blizzard conditions, especially along the coast. If you don’t have to be out tomorrow morning/afternoon, we’d recommend staying where you area. Blizzard warnings have been posted for parts of eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, the NH Seacoast, as well as coastal and Downeast Maine. Remember, the amount of snowfall has absolutely nothing to do with blizzard conditions. You can have a blizzard with no snow falling at all. By definition, you have a blizzard when visibility is 1/4 mile or less due to falling or blowing snow and you have sustained winds or gusts to 35 mph or more for 3 consecutive hours or more.

So, how much snow are we looking at? There isn’t really one model that we completely agree with, so we’re going with a blend of the ideas. Because the storm will be moving along fairly quickly, we’re not looking at any blockbuster amounts. The trickiest part is where the rain/snow line sets up.  Right now, we’re thinking somewhere close to the Cape Cod Canal. As for amounts, here’s the breakdown:

Outer Cape Cod/Islands: 3-5″
Upper Cape Cod: 4-8″
Southeastern Massachusetts (south and east of I95): 8-14″
Northern RI/Interior Eastern Massachusetts/North Shore: 6-12″
Central Massachusetts/Merrimack Valley/Southern NH/Seacoast: 5-9″

The biggest wild card is Southeastern Massachusetts, especially the closer to Cape Cod you get. The farther the rain/snow line moves inland, the less accumulations will be. This is the area of biggest “bust potential”.

Once the storm moves by, we’ll slowly clear out on Friday, but gusty northwest to west winds will usher another arctic blast into the region. Saturday may be even colder than any of the days we’ve had over the past week. Especially with fresh snowcover, temperatures will plunge again, with the worst of it on Saturday, when high temperatures likely stay in the single digits. Sub-zero lows are likely across much of the region Saturday morning and especially Sunday morning.

It seems as though we went through this last week, but once again, after a taste of early Spring, Mother Nature is about to remind us that March can still bring plenty of wintry weather to the area.

Today is the transition day, as strong winds usher much colder air into the region behind a cold front that crossed the region late Wednesday night. While temperatures are still in the 40s, things are about to change, and most of you probably won’t like it. That cold front will stall out south of New England today, and low pressure will ride along it across the Mid-Atlantic states, passing south of us on Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build in north of New England, bringing plenty of cold air with it. Let’s see now, cold air moving in from the north and moisture moving in from the south. What happens when you combine those? That’s right, you get SNOW! Luckily, we’re not looking at a lot of snow this time. Let’s get to the details:

Snow should start to develop early in the morning, possibly even starting as a little rain across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. The snow may fall at a pretty good clip during the morning hours, tapering off and ending during the afternoon.Since we’re into mid-March, the sun angle is roughly the same as the end of September. In other words, fairly strong. So, once we get past sunrise, even though it’ll be cloudy, the snow will have a tougher time sticking to paved surfaces. That’s the good news. The bad news is that a lot of the snow will fall before then, so the roads may not be that pretty for the morning commute.

OK, so the snow ends in the afternoon and we’re done right? As noted college football analyst Lee Corso used to say “Not so fast my friend”. As the storm moves into the Gulf of Maine, a piece of energy, called a Norlun trough (Explained here by Matt Noyes), may produce some additional light snow from the North Shore up into southern New Hampshire and south coastal Maine through the evening hours. It won’t amount to much, but could be just enough to screw up the evening commute well north of Boston.

So, how much snow are we looking at? North of the Mass Pike, probably less than an inch, if any snow falls at all. From the North Shore into Boston and it’s immediate southern and western suburbs, probably 1-2 inches. For the South Coast, roughly south of Route 44, 2-4 inches should do it, with a little more possible across parts of the Cape and Islands.

All in all, not a big deal, especially by New England standards. What will be a big deal is the cold air behind the storm. Similar to last Saturday, this Saturday will be quite chilly, especially with fresh snowcover. High temperatures may struggle to get into the lower 20s, but wind chills will be in the single numbers and below zero. So, if you’re heading outside, make sure you bundle up. It’ll feel more like January than March.

Finally, we’re aware of the uncontrolled hype on the Internet (and TV) about a potentially major snowstorm on Tuesday. Right now, it’s a potential storm and nothing else. We’ll certainly keep our eyes on it, and if a threat does materialize, we’ll let you know well in advance. For now though, it’s nothing more than a figment of the computer models’ imaginations. We don’t participate in hype or speculation here at StormHQ, so we’re going to leave it at that.

“Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on” – Toby Keith

Ladies and gentlemen, please make sure your safety belts are securely fastened, as this rollercoaster is ready to go. Yup, the weather will go through several changes over the next few days, giving us a little of everything – howling winds, bitterly cold wind chills, snow squalls, sleet, freezing rain, heavy rain, unseasonably mild temperatures. And that’s just before the weekend is over.

We’ll start with Thursday. A series of arctic cold fronts will cross the region. Some snow squalls may accompany the fronts, so you’ll need to be prepared for that if you’re out and about during the day. These are the winter equivalent of summer thunderstorms. They’re impossible to predict ahead of time, usually don’t last too long, but can have severe impacts if you get caught in one. Visibility can drop to near zero in an instant, a quick inch or two of snow could accumulate, and the next town over could see nothing at all.

While the snow squalls can be a high-impact but localized event, the strong winds and bitterly cold temperatures will be felt region-wide. Northwest winds of 15-30 mph are likely, with gusts upwards of 50-60 mph possible, especially Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. High Wind Watches have been posted for parts of the region. If you have any loose objects outside, such as trash barrels, Christmas decorations, small children, etc, you may want to consider bringing them inside, so that they don’t blow away.

These gusty winds will also usher some of the coldest air so far this winter into the region. Most days, the day starts off cool, warms up until mid-afternoon, then cools off again as the sun goes down. Thursday will not be one of those days. We’ll start the day with temperatures in the 30s, but temperatures will drop into the 20s by midday, then keep dropping. By Friday morning, most places will see temperatures in the single numbers, with some sub-zero readings possible. When you factor in the wind, the wind chill will be 15 to 25 below zero in many areas. Make sure you’re all bundled up if you have to head outside for any reason at all. Better yet, stay inside, it’s easier.

The good news is, the cold air will be short-lived. The bad news is, the transition from the arctic air will be rather messy. A storm system will head up the St. Lawrence Valley this weekend. Precipitation will develop ahead of this system before sunrise Saturday morning. That precipitation will start as snow, but as warmer air moves in aloft, it will start to change over. How quick that changeover occurs is the big question mark.

Cold air will likely remain entrenched at the surface, especially away from the coastline. With warm air moving in aloft, that means we’ll likely see a changeover to sleet and/or freezing rain across the interior Saturday afternoon. Along the coast, a quick change to rain is likely, as water temperatures remain in the 40s, which will help warm things up fairly quickly near the shoreline. Eventually, that warmer air will move in at the surface across the entire area, with a change to plain rain expected overnight. Before that changeover happens, we’ll probably see snowfall accumulations of 1-3″ south and east of I-95, including the Boston and Providence metropolitan areas. North and west of I-95, we’re looking at 2-5″ of snow, with the possibility of some sleet or ice accretion. Please keep this in mind if you have plans in this region Saturday afternoon/evening.

OK, so it warms up Saturday night and everything changes to rain. End of story, right? Nope, the ride isn’t over yet. By Sunday morning, temperatures will be in the 40s to lower 50s north and west of Boston, with 50s and possibly even some 60s from Boston southward. So, Sunday will be a nice warm day, right? Nope. Temperatures will peak in the morning, then drop again throughout the day as the system drags a strong cold front across the region. In fact, if the rain is slow to depart, it could change back over to some snow or sleet before ending in the afternoon. It probably won’t accumulate, but with wet roads and sharply falling temperatures, we could see some black ice develop on many area roadways. Again, just one more thing to keep in mind in you are heading out and about late Sunday afternoon or evening.

Things start to calm down after that. Monday will be quite chilly again, with highs only in the 20s, and gusty winds keeping wind chills close to zero. Temperatures start to moderate next week, and a late-week system could bring in some rain. Right now, it’s not looking like a White Christmas, but things can still change. Beyond that? Well, the GFS model gave us a good laugh this afternoon.

October can be a time of change in the Northeast. While the first thing that comes to mind is the changing colors of the foliage across the region, the weather also changes, sometimes quite frequently. That’s what we’re going to be dealing with for the next few days.

It’s an unseasonably warm afternoon across much of the Northeast, with temperatures generally in the 60s and 70s, with 80s from southern Connecticut into the Mid-Atlantic states. Dozens of record highs have been set over the past few days, and more are falling today. However, some changes are coming, and the warm weather will be a distant memory within the next 24-48 hours.

A cold front is moving across the region this afternoon, though you really couldn’t tell, as there’s only scattered cloud cover and little precipitation with the front. That front will stall out to the south of New England tonight. On Thursday, a wave of low pressure will start to approach from the west. This will spread rain and showers into the region. Some of the rain will be heavy, especially from New York into Pennsylvania late Thursday into Friday. With rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally up to 5 inches expected, some flooding is likely. Across New England, where a serious drought is ongoing, rainfall will be much lighter, with most locations likely receiving under half an inch of rain.

As that wave of low pressure moves into Upstate New York on Friday, it will lift that cold front back across New England as a warm front. While Friday won’t be as warm as today, temperatures will still get into the 60s and lower 70s across much of New England. With dewpoints also in the 60s, it will be a rather muggy day for mid-October.

Meanwhile, there is a tropical disturbance brewing in the Bahamas right now. While conditions are favorable for development, we’re not looking at another monster like Matthew, it could become a tropical depression or subtropical storm over the next few days. The system will likely head northward, moving towards the Gulf of Maine as we head into the weekend. This will bring another round of heavy rainfall into Maine and Atlantic Canada, again missing most of Southern New England, where the rain is most needed.

Once the system moves into southeastern Canada, it is expected to stall out under an upper-level low pressure area and become a strong extratropical system. It will drag a cold front across the Northeast, bringing much colder air into the region. With strong low pressure nearby and much colder air filtering in, rain will change over to snow across portions of Upstate New York and Northern New England. While the snow will be confined mainly to the higher elevations, this is the first accumulating snow of the season across the area. Several inches may accumulate across parts of the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains.

While there could be a few wet flakes mixed in with some of the rain across lower elevations of Central New England, accumulating snow is not expected.Sunday will be a chilly day, with highs only in the 40s and 50s across much of the Northeast. These readings are 10-20 degrees below normal. Of course, any mention of snow in October across the Northeast will make residents think back just a few years to the pre-Halloween snowstorm that dropped 1-2 feet of snow across parts of the region, setting numerous records. While this system won’t come anywhere close to that, it should make for some spectacular photos of snow-capped mountains and valleys filled with colorful foliage early next week.