Extreme Temperatures

Boston May Need an Ark, Bismarck Needs a Plow

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Two developing storm systems – one off the East Coast and one in Plains, will both wreak havoc in the next few days, but for very different reasons.

Two low pressure areas are developing off the East Coast early this morning. The northern system is the stronger of the two, but the southern one is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. It has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or subtropical storm later today. Whether it does or not, these two low pressure areas will eventually merge and become a rather strong non-tropical system over the next 24 hours. There is very little in the way of steering currents right now, so the system will just meander around off the coast until Saturday.

Low pressure won’t be in a hurry to go anywhere off the East Coast for the next few days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

As the system drifts northward, it will produce gusty winds along the coast, especially in New England. Tides are astronomically low at the moment, but will be rising later this week, so coastal flooding, while not a major concern, will still be possible in some locations. A coastal flood watch has been issued for parts of Plymouth County, Cape Cod, and Martha’s Vineyard. Rough seas will also be a large concern for marine interests, with Storm Warnings now in effect offshore. However, the biggest concern and also the biggest question mark right now is heavy rainfall.

Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible across much of Southern New England. Yeah, that blows. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While the storm will likely spread some heavy rainfall into New England, there is still plenty of uncertainty as to how far north the heavy rain gets, as well as how much rain actually falls. Some of the models are producing extremely heavy rainfall, with totals in excess of 10″ in southeastern Massachusetts! While we aren’t buying the extreme totals, the fact that most of the models are showing this potential means that some very heavy rain is likely, especially south of Boston, where a Flood Watch has been issued.

That’s a lot of water coming out of the sky over the next 3 days. Some models have even more than this! Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thanks to some dry weather over the past couple of months, we shouldn’t have to worry about any flash flooding, though downpours will result in ponding of water on roadways, and some locations normally prone to flooding in heavy rain will also have problems. However, since we’re expecting a prolonged period of heavy rain, flooding is still a possibility in some locations, other than the ones we just mentioned, especially some of the smaller streams and rivers. Strong winds will also start to take some of the leaves off of trees, which may clog up storm drains, resulting in some flooding as well.

Recent dryness means that flash flooding is not likely in New England with this storm. Image provided the the Northeast River Forecast Center.

While all this is taking place off the East Coast, some very cold air will settle into the Rockies and Plains states as low pressure starts to develop across the Central Plains. Record lows are likely to be set in numerous locations over the next few mornings across the region. This system will head north-northeastward while strengthening. The system isn’t expected to become that strong, but with a large high pressure area building in behind it, it will produce some strong winds. It will also draw warm and moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. As this air runs into the much colder air on the backside of the storm, the first significant snowstorm of the season is expected to develop across the Northern Plains.

Winter Storm Watches and warnings have been posted from parts of Idaho Montana, and Wyoming into parts of northern Nebraska and the Dakotas as well as northwestern Minnesota. across Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, snowfall totals of 6-12 inches are possible, with some heavier amounts in the higher elevations. The biggest issues are expected across the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota.

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph or more are expected across the Northern Plains. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The precipitation will start as rain across this area later today, but strong northerly winds will usher much colder weather in, changing the rain to snow from west to east on Thursday. Like its East Coast counterpart, this storm won’t move at a rapid pace, so snow, possibly heavy at times will continue across this area into early Saturday, with snow showers lingering into Sunday.

This storm also has some questions with it’s precipitation shield. While heavy snow is likely across a large area, how much falls and where the heaviest snow will fall is still a question. Right now, it looks like the heaviest snow will fall from central South Dakota into central and eastern North Dakota, but that still could change. As for amounts, many areas could see more than a foot, with totals in excess of 2 feet possible in some areas. The snow will be accompanied by winds gusting to 40-50 mph, resulting in blizzard conditions, especially late Thursday into Friday.

Welcome to winter! Snowfall totals of 1-2 feet or more are possible across the Dakotas. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

While snow in October is not unusual across this region, snowfall amounts of this magnitude this early in the year are extraordinarily rare. In Grand Forks, ND, the largest October snowstorm on record occurred October 24-26, 2001, and it dropped 10.9″ on the city. In Fargo, ND, the largest October snowstorm on record is only 8.1″ on October 30-31, 1951. For Pierre, SD, the October snowstorm of record occurred October 30-31, 1943, and it only produce 7.2″ of snow. Current model forecasts are forecasting amounts that are 3-4 times the records. These model forecasts are likely too high, but it seems likely that many of these October records are going to be obliterated in the next few days. Hopefully, this is not a sign of what’s to come this winter.

Here Comes the Heat

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Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect right through the weekend across much of the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We warned you in our Weekly Outlook that it was coming, and it’s just about here – some brutal heat and humidity is expected for the next few days.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will be responsible for our heat and humidity through the weekend. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Friday will start out with some lingering clouds and a little fog, but the sun will return and as winds shift into the southwest, so will the heat and humidity. Many locations will reach 90 on Friday, but not everyone. Dewpoints will get into the lower 70s, sending the heat index well into the 90s across the region. At night, with plenty of humidity around, temperatures likely won’t drop below the middle 70s across the region, making for an uncomfortable sleeping night if you don’t have air conditioning. This sets the stage for Saturday.

Saturday will likely be the hottest day we’ve had around here in several years. Add in the high humidity (dewpoints again in the lower to middle 70s), and well, it’ll be downright brutal outside. Since it will already be warm to start, with plenty of sunshine, temperatures will quickly jump in the morning, with many locations likely reaching 90 by lunchtime, but it won’t stop there. Temperatures will likely get into the upper 90s, with some spots, especially in the Merrimack Valley, possibly topping 100 degrees.

It’s going to be hot on Saturday. Really hot (by New England standards). Image provided by WeatherBell.

How rare is a 100-degree reading? Since the Merrimack Valley is the likeliest spot, here is some data for Lowell. In the 131 years of temperature records for Lowell, the city has topped 100 degrees just 35 times, or about once every four years. However, it’s actually been 8 years since Lowell hit 100, with a high of 102 on July 22, 2011. Before that, you have to go back to 2002, when it hit 101 on August 14, and 100 on July 3. So that’s just 3 times in the past 17 years. Skewing that average of once every 4 years is the fact that Lowell reached 100 5 times in 1911, 4 times in 1949, and 5 times in 1952. That’s 14 among those 3 years alone. July 22, 2011 was also the last time it reached 100 at Logan Airport in Boston, where they’ve only hit 100 25 times in 147 years of records.

With temperatures in the upper 90s (or higher), and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, that means that the heat index will be in the range of 105 to 110 degrees or higher during the hottest part of the day. If you have any plans to be outside, whether it be by the pool, at the beach, at the NASCAR activities in Loudon, or anywhere else, make sure you try to stay hydrated, and take plenty of breaks in the shade if you can.

Heat indices will likely be well over 100 across most of the region Saturday afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Saturday night will be another uncomfortable night, with low temperatures only dropping into the middle to upper 70s. Some of the urban locations, like Boston, may not drop below 80. This leads in to another brutally hot and humid day on Sunday. Once again, most places will likely reach 90 by lunchtime and keep going. High temperatures will again get into the upper 90s across the area, with some 100-degree readings possible. Dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s, so we’re looking at heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree range once again.

Sunday looks to be another scorcher, but we’re not quite convinced it will be as hot as this model is showing. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By late Sunday, a cold front will start to approach, and it may produce some showers and thunderstorms during the evening and overnight. Behind it, much more seasonable air and lower humidity settles in for Monday. There may be a little relief in spots before that as well. Thunderstorm complexes in the Midwest will ride along the top of the upper-level ridge, as it typical in the summer. Right now, it looks like this may happen both late Friday and late Saturday. Unfortunately, it looks like these may fizzle before reaching the Northeast, and if they don’t, they will likely pass southwest of our area. So, we’re not holding out hope for these to help cool us off.

Long range forecasts show that some heat may return late next week into next weekend, but not nearly to the extent of what we’ll be dealing with for the next few days.

Weekly Outlook: March 4-10, 2019

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The first full week of March is shaping up to be a wintry one, mainly in the temperature department, but a little in the precipitation department as well.

The snow will be ending across the region this morning as our storm system pulls away, with some clearing this afternoon. Temperatures may even get a tad mild, allowing for some melting to take place. However, we’re going to drop back below freezing tonight, so anything that melted with ice back up. If you’re heading out this evening, watch out for slippery conditions on untreated surfaces.

Temperatures could get into the middle to upper 30s this afternoon, allowing some of the fresh snow to melt. Image provided by WeatherBell.

After that, a rather cold airmass will settle into the region for Tuesday through Thursday. While temperatures won’t be as extreme as in the Plains states, we’re still looking at temperatures that are 10-20 degrees below normal, especially Wednesday and Thursday. A couple of upper-level disturbances will also be moving through the region, which may produce a few snow showers at times, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees below normal during the middle of the week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

By Friday, high pressure will move offshore and temperatures will start to moderate. That just means it won’t be quite as cold, but temperatures will still be below normal. The weekend is where things get complicated.

It looks like we’re going to have 2 systems impact the area, a weak one on Saturday, and a stronger one on Saturday. Given that these are both several days away, nothing is set in stone at this point. The first system passes south of New England on Saturday. There is at least one model that has it pass too far south to have any impact on us, but most bring it close enough to spread in some light precipitation. Right now, it looks likely mainly some light snow, but it could be some rain as well, especially along the south coast.

The stronger storm comes in on Sunday. This one looks like it will produce some rain across the area. However, some models are showing temperatures below freezing at the start, which means we’d be looking at yet another situation where we have snow to sleet or freezing rain inland and rain along the coast. Again, this is a week away, so trying to nail down details at this point is a futile exercise. Just be aware that next Sunday could be messy, especially north and west of Boston.

Daylight Saving Time starts at 2am Sunday. Sunset next Sunday evening will be at approximately 6:45pm. Image provided by the National Weather Service.

Monday: Snow (rain on the Cape) ending early, some sunny breaks develop in the afternoon. High 33-40.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 9-16.

Tuesday: Morning sunshine, afternoon clouds, slight chance for a snow flurry. High 24-31.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 10-17.

Wednesday: A sunny start, then clouding up again, breezy. A snow shower is possible. High 19-26.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, with a few afternoon snow showers possible. High 20-27.

Friday: Plenty of clouds. Light snow or rain developing at night. High 28-35.

Saturday: Cloudy with some snow or rain showers possible in the morning. High 31-38.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of rain, possibly some snow or a wintry mix across the interior. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: January 28 – February 3, 2019

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The winter of little snow rolls on this week, with just a little bit of snow and more cold weather. Don’t worry, it won’t last too long, and it could be a LOT worse.

The week starts off with high pressure building in, giving us sunshine and seasonably cold conditions. Clouds will start to move in during the evening as low pressure heads towards the Midwest. As this system moves across the Great Lakes on Tuesday, snow will develop across the region Tuesday afternoon. A secondary area of low pressure will develop across the Mid-Atlantic states during the afternoon. This will help bring milder air into the region, changing to snow to rain during the afternoon and evening hours. Whether or not this changeover makes it into southern and central NH is still a question mark. Either way, this doesn’t look like a big snow producer, with a few inches across central and southern NH, and an inch or less elsewhere.

This storm is not expected to be a big snow-producer across the area. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once that secondary low pressure area moves past the area, colder air will quickly move back in, changing any rain back to snow before it ends towards daybreak. That’s not the end of the story though. We could see some sunshine develop in the afternoon, but an arctic front will move through late in the day. This front may produce some snow showers or squalls, which could impact the Wednesday evening commute, but they may hold off until a little later. These squalls may briefly lower visibility, and could drop a quick half inch or so, but the bigger story is what comes in behind the front.

Wind chills will be well below zero when most of you are heading out to work or school Thursday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Skies clear out Wednesday night as high pressure builds in, ushering in much colder air. While it won’t be quite as cold as last Monday when most of the area had high temperatures around 5 degrees, we’ll have more wind this time, so wind chills will be well below zero on Thursday. So, how could it be worse? When this airmass moves into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest later Tuesday into Wednesday, temperatures will be a LOT colder. Across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota, low temperatures will drop near or below -40 Thursday morning, with afternoon highs not reaching -30 in some areas. This is actual air temperature, not wind chill. So what will the wind chills be? How does -60 to -65 sound? We’re not quite sure why people voluntarily live in this area, but they do.

Yes, wind chills could be lower than -60 in parts of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains Wednesday morning. That is beyond ridiculously cold to us. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Getting back to our weather, Thursday night will be chilly, but we’ll start to moderate on Friday as high pressure shifts to the east. Oh, it’ll still be cold, just not as cold as Thursday. The gradual warmup will continue on Saturday as high pressure moves offshore and then a warm front moves through on Sunday with milder weather moving in.

Monday: Mostly sunny and chilly. High 24-31.

Monday night: Increasing clouds. Low 15-22.

Tuesday: Cloudy with light snow developing in the afternoon, quickly changing to rain south of Boston. High 30-37.

Tuesday night: Light snow likely across central and southern NH, changing to rain from the MA/NH border southward during the evening. Rain changes back to snow everywhere after midnight, ending towards daybreak. Temperatures may rise a bit through midnight, then drop back to 22-29 by daybreak.

Wednesday: Breezy with any snow showers ending early, then skies become partly to mostly sunny. Snow showers or squalls are possible in the evening. High 26-33, but temperatures will quickly plunge at night.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and much colder. High 7-14.

Friday: Sunshine and afternoon clouds, still cold. High 17-24.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, still chilly. High 22-29.

Sunday: Partly sunny and milder. High 34-41.

Storm Update – Less Snow, More Problems

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In our forecast yesterday, we told you that some of the biggest questions were the track of the storm system and related to that, how far north the change to sleet/freezing rain would take place. Well, we’ve got some more clarity on that now.

Some of you are already seeing some snow falling this afternoon, but this is not related to the storm. Some ocean-effect snow has pushed into Cape Cod and Plymouth County, and will continue to push inland this afternoon. This will be light, with less than an inch in most spots. The steadier snow will move in late this afternoon and evening from the west, reaching southern NH and the Merrimack Valley first, then the rest of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. It’s after midnight where the changes start to take place.

The NAM model shows the progression of the storm with the changeover to sleet. freezing rain, and plain rain gradually spreading northward early Sunday. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The storm system looks like it will track a bit farther north, passing very close to Boston on Sunday. This will not only allow milder air to move into most of southeastern Massachusetts, but the milder air aloft will also move much farther north than we had anticipated yesterday. Snow will fall heavy at times overnight, especially north of the Mass Pike, but as the warmer air starts to move in, we’ll see a change to sleet and eventually freezing rain move into the South Coast towards Midnight. A change to plain rain is likely before daybreak across southern Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, as temperatures may break into the 40s Sunday morning. Some of the rain could be heavy, which may wash away most of the snow that does fall. Farther north, snow will gradually change to sleet and freezing rain north and west of Boston towards daybreak, with the changeover likely getting into southern NH as well. This will significantly cut down on snow amounts, but could make travel quite hazardous if there’s enough freezing rain.

The NAM model is forecasting up to 1/4 inch of freezing rain in parts of southern NH and the Merrimack Valley. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

By midday, the storm passes by and moves offshore, with winds shifting into the north. This will bring much colder air back in, and rather quickly. Temperatures may get close to or a little above freezing during the morning from southern NH into the Merrimack Valley and the northern and western suburbs of Boston, but by afternoon they’ll quickly drop into the 20s during the afternoon and teens by evening. That will result in a flash freeze, and any untreated surfaces will quickly freeze up, resulting in very hazardous travel. It will also mean that anything you haven’t cleaned off of your car, driveway, sidewalk, etc. will quickly turn into cement. The bitterly cold air will continue to flow in, and temperatures on Monday may struggle to reach the lower teens, with wind chills below zero thanks to gusty northwest winds. These gusty winds may also produce some ocean effect snow across parts of Cape Cod, especially the Outer Cape.

The High Resolution NAM model shows the rollercaster that our temperatures will be on over the next couple of days. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

So, how much snow are we expecting now? Here’s our current thinking:

Cape Cod/South Coast: 1-3 inches
Southeastern Massachusetts/I-95 corridor: 2-4 inches
MetroWest/North Shore: 3-5 inches
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 3-6 inches
Southern NH: 4-7 inches
Central NH/Southern Maine: 8-14 inches, with higher amounts the farther north you go.

While there isn’t any one model that matches our current thoughts on accumulations, the High Resolution NAM model is closest to our current thinking. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

Temperatures will slowly start to moderate on Tuesday, then another system may move in on Wednesday, but this one, believe it or not, may be mostly rain. We’ll see how that evolves over the next few days.

The Party’s Over – Here Comes the Snow

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We haven’t had a decent-sized snowstorm around here since late November. Well, that is about to end, much to the dismay of most of you. We’ve got several different concerns with this system, so we’ll try and touch on all of them.

Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for most of the Northeast with a Coastal Flood Watch for parts of the Massachusetts coastline. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ll start with what’s going on now. High pressure is building into Quebec, and this will bring cold air into the region. Tonight will be chilly, with lows in the teens, maybe even some single numbers. Meanwhile, low pressure is moving out of the Southern Plains. This low will move towards the Appalachians on Saturday, then off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Saturday night. This brings us to forecast problem number 1. Where does the low track from there? This is a critical point, as it will help determine what type of precipitation falls across the area. Some models keep the storm offshore, south of the Cape and Islands, while others bring it right across southeastern New England. We’re thinking it tracks pretty close to the Islands, but stays just to the south. By Sunday, it moves into the Gulf of Maine, and takes all of the precipitation away.

As for the timing of that precipitation, there’s not much disagreement among the models. Snow should move in during the evening hours (7-9pm) from west to east, and end during the afternoon (3-5pm) on Sunday, except across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts, where it may linger into Sunday night. The heaviest precipitation will likely fall between about 11pm Saturday and 8am Sunday, so if you don’t have to be out then, we’d recommend that you stay where you are.

The High-Resolution NAM model shows the progression of the precipitation across the region. Blue is snow, orange is sleet, purple is freezing rain, and green/yellow is rain. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

What type of precipitation is going to fall? Well, that is a BIG question, that is still in doubt for a large portion of the region. It should start as snow for everyone. It will likely change to rain across Cape Cod and the South Coast, and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. In between? That’s where things get really complicated. As we usually see during storms, we’re going to have a “coastal front” set up. Basically, the milder air from the ocean will push inland a bit. If you are south and east of this coastal front, temperatures will be near or just above freezing. If you are on the other side of the front, temperatures will be in the teens. Eventually, this front will collapse to the coast on Sunday, bringing the cold air in everywhere (more on that later). But the surface is only part of the equation. Warmer air will also move in aloft. How far inland it moves is something that that models disagree on right now. With warm air aloft and cold air at the surface, the precipitation will change to sleet or freezing rain, depending on how thick the layer of warm air is above the surface. Obviously, this will have a significant impact on snowfall amounts. Everything should go back to all snow Sunday afternoon as the coastal front collapses toward the coastline.

The high-resolution NAM model shows a well-defined coastal front setting up in the Merrimack Valley and the I-495 belt Sunday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ve got more concerns than just what falls from the sky though. The full moon is Sunday night, which means that tides will be astronomically high. That is usually enough for some minor coastal flooding in a few spots. However, when you add in east to northeast winds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 40-50 mph (or more), then you get coastal flooding in a much wider area, possibly even some moderate flooding in the more vulnerable locations. This is mainly a concern for the high tide that occurs Sunday morning. The winds will also be a concern inland, as it will create blowing and drifting snow, making driving even more hazardous.

We mentioned earlier that the coastal front would collapse to the coastline during the afternoon, bringing cold air back in everywhere. As that cold air comes rushing in, we expect everything to quickly freeze up Sunday afternoon and evening. This will create black ice on the roads, but more importantly, any snow still on your driveway, cars, roads, etc, will quickly turn into cement. You’ll want to get outside and quickly clear everything off, because the longer you wait, the more difficult it will become. Temperatures will continue to drop Sunday night, and as high pressure builds in, skies will clear out, which may allow for viewing of the total lunar eclipse Sunday night. On Monday, temperatures won’t rise that much, with many places likely staying in the single numbers or lower teens. It will still be breezy, so wind chills may stay below zero all day long. Temperatures will start to moderate on Tuesday, but longer-range indications are that we are in a colder (and stormier) pattern now, so winter has finally arrived.

This is the forecast high temperatures for Monday based on the GFS model. It’s going to be cold. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

OK, finally, the part you’ve all been wondering – how much are we getting? As we’ve said, the amount of sleet and freezing rain will have a significant impact on snow accumulations, so we’re going to keep our ranges somewhat wide for now, and if need be, we’ll put out an update on Saturday.

Cape Cod: 2-4″
Southeastern Massachusetts/Southern Rhode Island: 3-6″
I-95 corridor (including Boston and Providence): 4-8″
MetroWest/North Shore: 6-12″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 8-14″
Southern NH/Southern ME (Nashua/Manchester/Portland): 10-16″
Central NH (Concord): 12-18″

The NAM model is probably closest to our thinking right now, though some of these numbers may be a bit higher than our thoughts. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

If time allows, and/or there is a significant change in the forecast, we’ll update this on Saturday.

Weekly Outlook: December 31, 2018-January 6, 2019

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Remember last week when we hinted that First Night could be really cold? Well, it seems as though we were wr….wro….wro….we were a little off.

It is NOT going to be a fun First Night in the Dakotas. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

First Night is actually going to be bitterly cold, if you’re planning on spending it in Fargo, where wind chills will be 25 to 35 degrees below zero when the clock strikes midnight. Around here? It’ll be a tad milder. Low pressure will move from the Great Lakes into northern New England later today and tonight. Precipitation will move in this evening, and it will likely still be cold enough for some snow, sleet, or freezing rain from the Merrimack Valley northward, at least at the start. Elsewhere, just some rain is expected. Milder air will move in aloft, and eventually at the surface too, changing the precipitation to rain everywhere overnight. That warm air may take its time moving in, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire, but New Years Morning will likely be quite mild across much of the area. Don’t get used to it, as a cold front moves through during the morning, with windy and colder conditions likely for the afternoon.

The NAM model shows cold air stubbornly hanging around in southern NH and the Merrimack Valley Tuesday morning, while everywhere else turns milder. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Tuesday afternoon is also when the Winter Classic takes places, featuring two of the absolute best sweaters in the NHL (and two of our favorite teams here at StormHQ) – the Boston Bruins and the Chicago Blackhawks. We’ll refrain from comment about the fact that it’s taking place at the home of the Angry Leprechauns – Notre Lame, er, Dame, or that outdoor hockey games are much better on TV than in person (trust us, we’ve experienced it), but for the game itself, it should be cloudy with temperatures in the middle 30s, which is pretty much perfect for outdoor hockey.

We’re not fans of outdoor hockey games, but we are fans of the Bruins and the Blackhawks. The weather will cooperate, so let’s hope for a great game (and a Bruins victory). Image provided by the National Hockey League.

As we head deeper into 2019, things get quieter (and colder) around here for a few days. High pressure builds in, and we’ll have generally dry and cool conditions for much of the remainder of the week, as we remain in a split jet-stream pattern. Basically, we’ve got a northern stream keeping some storms across southern Canada and to our north, and a southern stream keeping the warmer, juicier storms to our south. This will be the case on Friday when it looks like a southern stream storm will come along and give us some rain, while the northern stream remains locked up in Canada. If you don’t like snowstorms, then you want this pattern to continue. Why? Because if the streams cross, to quote Dr. Egon Spengler, “It would be bad.” That’s usually how we end up with some of our bigger snowstorms in the winter. As the storm moves by, colder air will work in behind it, with the rain possibly changing over to snow before ending on Saturday. High pressure then returns for next Sunday.

New Years Eve: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 37-44.

Monday Night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with rain developing, starting as some snow or a wintry mix from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. Rain ends towards daybreak. Low 32-39 during the evening, then temperatures will hold steady or slowly rise overnight.

New Years Day: A lingering shower early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 49-56 in the morning then temperatures quickly drop through the 40s during the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 27-34.

Thursday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a snow or rain shower. High 35-42.

Friday: Cloudy with rain developing in the afternoon, continuing at night. High 38-45.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with rain, possibly mixing with or changing to snow before ending late in the day. High 34-41.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 36-43.

Hurricanes, Severe Weather, and Snow, All at the Same Time (not the Same Place)

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For the third year in a row, the “M” storm in the Atlantic is prepared to wreak havoc on a populated area, but Michael isn’t the only headline maker in the weather at the moment.

Hurricane Michael isn’t the only storm in the news, but it is the biggest threat at the moment. As of early Tuesday afternoon, Michael was centered about 335 miles south of Panama City, Florida, moving toward the north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, making Michael a Category 2 Hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected over the next 12-18 hours as the storm moves over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida, with Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches surrounding the Hurricane Warnings. Tropical Storm Watches are also in effect for the Atlantic coast from northeastern Florida into South Carolina.

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Michael is going to pack quite a wallop when it slams into the Florida Panhandle Wednesday afternoon. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Michael is expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, likely as a Category 3 storm. Strong winds, torrential rainfall, storm surge, and some tornadoes are all possible with this storm. Unlike Florence, which hung around the Carolinas for days and dumped incredible amounts of rainfall on the region, Michael is expected to keep moving at a steady pace, emerging off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday morning. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are still expected in parts of the region, which will produce flooding in some areas, especially in Carolinas, where many areas are still recovering from Florence. Right along the coast, a storm surge of 6-12 feet is possible, especially in the Big Bend area of Florida. Fortunately, this area is not heavily populated, but for the residents that do live in this area, storm surge flooding is a significant threat.

Once it moves back into the Atlantic early Friday, it should pass well south of our area. The northern edge of the rainfall from the system could reach the South Coast, but the bulk of the heavy rain should remain well to the south.

This is the 3rd year in a row that the “M” storm is expected to result in significant damage to a populated area. In 2014, Category 5 Hurricane Matthew left a path of death and destruction across parts of Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and eventually parts of the southeastern United States. Last year, Category 5 Hurricane Maria devastated the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. While Michael is not expected to become a Category 5 storm, it is still expected to result in significant damage to parts of Florida and the Southeast.

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Tropical Storm Leslie has been around for near 2 weeks and still looks rather healthy. Loop provided by NOAA.

Meanwhile, in the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Leslie refuses to go away. As of midday Tuesday, Leslie was centered a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores, moving toward the south-southeast at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. The forecast for Leslie calls for a turn more toward the east over the next few days while it strengthens back into a hurricane. Leslie is expected to remain over open waters for the next few days, and could become an extratropical storm this weekend while continuing on a general easterly track.

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Nadine is a fish storm. Nothing to worry about here. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

To the south, Tropical Storm Nadine as formed nearly 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Nadine has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. Nadine is expected to remain fairly weak over open waters for the next several days while turning more toward the northwest. As it moves over colder water late this week and this weekend, it should weaken and eventually dissipate.

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What month is it again? 70s and 80s early in the afternoon on October 9th? Image provided by WeatherBell.

Back in the United States, unseasonably warm conditions remain in place across much of the eastern half of the nation. Temperatures are in the 70s and 80s across much of the region, which is 15 to 25 degrees above normal. A strong frontal system is located in the Plains states this afternoon, separating the warm air in the East, from much cooler weather behind it in the Plains and the Rockies. Right along this front, which hasn’t moved much for the past 24 hours, severe weather and heavy rainfall are common this afternoon.

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That’s snow in Colorado, and heavy rain along with severe weather from Texas into the Central Plains this afternoon. Loop provided by WeatherTAP.

Several tornadoes have been reported already today, including a few in the Oklahoma City area, and more are expected later today and tonight. Heavy rainfall is also expected from Texas into the Central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier may produce flash flooding in some areas. Flash flood watches are in effect for much of the region.

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Several inches of snow is expected form the Plains into the Upper Midwest over the next few days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

On the other side of the front, where much cooler weather is in place, rain is expected to change over to snow as low pressure rides along the front and into the Midwest. Winter weather advisories have already been posted for parts of the region. Snow is already falling in parts of Colorado this afternoon, and several inches may fall over the next 36-48 hours from western portions of Kansas and Nebraska into the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

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Some heavy rain is possible across our area on Thursday as a strong cold front approaches the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As the system moves eastward, it will spread some heavy rain and thunderstorms into our area on Thursday. We’re not expecting any severe weather, but some heavy downpours are possible, especially from western Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. Some localized flooding may result. Once this front pushes offshore, much cooler weather will settle in for the Friday and the weekend.

Wet Weather and High Humidity Are Coming

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You know that dry weather we’ve had for much of the Spring and Summer? How about those warm days with low humidity? Well, both will be a distant memory by this time next week.

A weather pattern that is both typical and atypical of summer at the same time is going to settle into the nation over the next several days. The typical part is that we’ll have a ridge of high pressure off the East Coast, and another one in the Southwest. The ridge off the East Coast will result in heat and humidity up and down the coastline for the next several days. The ridge in the Southwest will bring very hot conditions to the Southwest and especially the Southern Plains, where record highs are expected over the next several days. The Atypical part is across the Midwest. Normally, in between the two ridges of high pressure you’d have a trough of low pressure, but in this case, we actually have a closed upper-level low pressure system. While these are common in the fall, winter, and spring, they usually don’t occur much in the summer. This will bring cooler than normal conditions into the Midwest for the next few days.

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What is this, April? The upper-level pattern features ridges of high pressure in the Southwest and off the East Coast, and an upper-level low pressure system in the Great Lakes. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

With high pressure anchored off the East Coast, a warm and humid pattern will set up for much of next week (and possibly longer). Notice that we said “warm”, and not “hot”. While temperatures will still be a little above normal this weekend into much of next week, highs will only be in the 80s to lower 90s for most of the Eastern US. While the temperatures won’t be that bad, humidity levels will. With high pressure anchored off the East Coast, a southerly flow will help moisture stream northward from the tropics right up the East Coast this weekend and into much of next week. Dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and 70s across the region, so even though temperatures may not be hot, it will feel oppressive across much of the region.

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Moisture will stream northward from the tropics into much of the East Coast over the next several days. Loop provided by WeatherModels.com

 

With a warm and humid airmass in place for much of the week, it won’t take much for showers and thunderstorms to develop each day. With plenty of available moisture, some of these storms will end up producing very heavy rainfall. While the map above is a forecast that shows widespread coverage of heavy rain, in many cases, the storms will be very localized. Some locations could get hit by slow-moving thunderstorms over and over, while other spots a few miles away get little to no rainfall. Across the Mid-Atlantic States, where heavy rain led to flooding during the Spring, similar conditions are possible again for the next week. Across the Northeast, things are a little different.

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That’s a lot of rain from the Carolinas northward over the next week or so. Image provided by College of DuPage.

 

Here in New England, and in New York too, much of the Spring and early summer has been very dry. Localized thunderstorms have brought heavy rain to a few spots, especially earlier this week, but overall, rainfall has been well below normal across the area. Some relief will come this weekend. A weak low pressure system will move across the region late Saturday into Sunday as an upper-level low pressure system moves into the Midwest. The surface low will bring heavy rain and some gusty winds to parts of Southern New England and southeastern New York. The heaviest rain is expected late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, so neither day should be a complete washout. Once that system moves by, a warm and humid airmass will settle in, with a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms this week. Again, some places could get drenched, and some might get missed completely. Some could see off-and-on showers and storms for 6 hours, some could get a shower that lasts 6 minutes. Basically, it’ll be like living in Florida for a week, without having to worry about looking outside and finding an alligator in your swimming pool.

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It’s been very dry across New England and New York for a few months now, with drought conditions developing. Image provided by the National Drought Monitor.

 

Think warm and humid conditions with a daily chance of thunderstorms isn’t fun? It could be worse. Normally, it’s hot across Texas and the Southwest during the summer. This week though, the ridge of high pressure that is currently setting up across the Southern Plains and Southwest will bring in temperatures that are well above normal. In fact, record highs are expected for the next several days across much of Texas, as temperatures soar past 100 across much of the state, with some locations possibly exceeding 110 degrees. Unlike when the models were forecasting those temperatures here a few weeks ago, this time it’s going to happen. The heat won’t be confined to the Lone Star State either, with triple-digit highs also expected from parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains as well as parts of Colorado and New Mexico. There won’t be much, if any, relief at night either, as low temperatures will stay in the 70s, with many locations, especially urban areas like the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex likely not dropping below 80 degrees for low temperatures.

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Friday looks to be the hottest day across the Southern Plains and Texas, with many record highs expected to be broken. Image provided by WeatherModels.com

 

As we head into next week, the heat will ease a bit across Texas and the Southern Plains, but the core of the intense heat will shift westward into the Desert Southwest. High temperatures will top 110 degrees across much of the area for the first half of next week, with the usual hot spots such as Lake Havasu City, Arizona; Laughlin, Nevada; and Death Valley, California likely exceed 120 degrees during some of the afternoons. Highs will also top 100 across much of interior California once again. Anyone wanna place a bet as to whether Death Valley reaches 125? Better yet, will they have a night where the temperature doesn’t drop below 100 (it’s happened before)?

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A severe weather outbreak is possible on Friday across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Meanwhile, an upper-level low pressure area will settle into the Midwest. With the clash in airmasses along a cold front, showers and thunderstorms will develop. Some of these storms will become strong to severe on Friday, especially across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The main threats with any storms that develop will be strong winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall that could trigger flash flooding. Some tornadoes are also possible. The storms may start during the morning closer to the Great Lakes, with the afternoon and evening seeing the most widespread activity across the region. While activity should weaken at night, the threat of severe weather will continue across southern and eastern parts of the region.

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Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the Midwest on Friday. Loop provided by WeatherModels.com

 

As these storms crossed the Midwest today, they produced wind gusts to 90 mph and more than 30 tornadoes across Iowa. The town of Marhsalltown was devastated by a tornado earlier today. How bad was it? We’ll end this post with the Storm Report from the National Weather Service Office in Des Moines with the description of what happened in Marshalltown:

 

REPORTS OF CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE, INCLUDING 
VEHICLES MISSING, VEHICLES OVERTURNED, TOPS
OF BUILDINGS GONE, TREES DOWN, POWER LINES,
GAS LINES, ETC...

Winter’s Last Gasp?

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We’ve reached Patriots Day weekend, which is usually one of the truest signs that winter is over and Spring has finally started in New England. This year that will not be the case. In fact, this year, Patriots Day weekend is going to be absolutely miserable.

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In mid-April, high temperatures should normally be in the middle to upper 50s around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Don’t let today’s warmth fool you. Even though temperatures are in the 60s and even lower 70s away from the South Coast, big changes are coming, and not for the better. A backdoor cold front will drop down across the region late tonight and early Saturday, bringing much colder air back into the region. Temperatures are going to go slowly down through the 40s all day on Saturday and gusty northeast to east winds are going to make it feel even colder. By Saturday evening, temperatures will drop into the 30s, and they’ll likely stay there through most of Sunday. They may start to drift back up Sunday night and Monday, but it will still be on the chilly side. That’s the least of our problems.

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Temperatures on Sunday will be 15 to 25 degrees (or more) below normal. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

A large storm system is going to bring severe weather to the Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast today and tomorrow, while producing blizzard conditions in the Plains and Upper Midwest, with a significant ice storm expected in parts of the Great Lakes. That storm is going to slowly make progress eastward over the next few days, with the moisture from it likely arriving late Saturday. As we mentioned earlier, temperatures are going to be dropping into the 30s late on Saturday. If you combine that with incoming moisture, you get a giant mess.

Rain will develop late Saturday afternoon or evening across the region, but as temperatures continue to drop, some sleet will likely mix in, with freezing rain also a possibility, especially north and west of Boston where temperatures could even fall into the upper 20s Saturday night. Sleet and freezing rain will continue across much of the region for a good chunk of the day on Sunday, as temperatures will only rebound into the middle 30s at best for most of the area. The reason we’re expecting sleet (and freezing rain) and not snow, is that the colder air will all be at the lower levels of the atmosphere. It will actually be warmer aloft. We wouldn’t be surprised if the summit of Mount Washington is one of the warmest places in New England Sunday afternoon.

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This storm may drop quite a bit of sleet on the region Saturday night into Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Somewhat milder air will start to filter in Sunday night as low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. This will change everything back over to a cold rain. For once, a cold rain is actually good news, because it means we don’t have to worry about the sleet any more. However, this is bad news as we head into Marathon Monday. As that low heads off to the north and west of the region, it will bring a cold front towards the Northeast. As warmer air surges northward ahead of the front, it will help bring some heavy rain into the area. That warmer air will mainly be aloft, but some of it could reach the surface during the afternoon. In the morning though, when the race starts, and the Red Sox are scheduled to play, we’ll likely have periods of heavy rain, with temperatures only in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Not exactly baseball or running weather. Temperatures could get into the 50s or even low 60s in the afternoon, especially south of Boston, but we’ll still have the heavy rain to deal with. The cold front moves through late in the day, and drier air starts to filter in on Tuesday. Even then, a few showers are still possible as an upper-level low pressure system moves across the Northeast.

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The GFS forecast is not pretty for the next few days. Stay inside, watch some playoff hockey, and remember that warmer weather is coming eventually. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

So, is this it for winter? We’d like to say yes, but at this point, we can’t make that statement definitively. Longer-range models show below normal temperatures continuing into much of May. While it’s awfully tough to get wintry weather around here at this time of year, it’s not impossible. We have had heavy snow events in late April (1987), and early May (1977). As some of you may remember, in 2013, up to 3 feet of snow fell in parts of Northern New England and Upstate New York during Memorial Day weekend. So, we’d wait until at least mid-May before taking the flip-flops and shorts out of where ever you stored them for the winter.