Weekly Outlook: December 13-19, 2021

We’re in a fairly active weather pattern, but despite that, we’re not going to have too much going on for a good portion of this week.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, bringing us sunshine and mild temperatures today. A weak frontal system drops southward across the region on Tuesday with a few clouds, but it will bring slightly cooler temperatures. High pressure passes by to the north on Wednesday while that weak front starts to head northward again as a warm front. It will send some clouds into the region on Wednesday. Some showers are likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures may be near freezing for a while Wednesday evening into southern New Hampshire before the milder air moves back in, which means a period of icing or even some wet snow is possible as the precipitation overspreads the region.

Conditions could be iffy across southern New Hampshire for a while Wednesday evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday looks to be quite mild once again, with temperatures well into the 50s, possibly topping 60 in some locations. However, low pressure will be moving across southern Canada, dragging a cold front towards the area. Some showers may accompany the front as it moves through Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front on Friday with drier and cooler conditions.

Thursday looks like another mild afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Next weekend is where there is considerable uncertainty. The models have done rather poorly beyond 2 or 3 days recently, so looking ahead 6 days is a low-confidence forecast to begin with. However, the models seem to come up with a different solution nearly every run lately, and none of them agree with the others. A wave of low pressure may move toward the region for Saturday, but exactly where it goes (or if it even develops), is a giant question mark. Some models bring it well north of us, resulting in mild conditions and rain. Some bring in close to or over the region, resulting in a wintry mix, and some bring it south of the region, which could mean snow, or it stays too far south and we get no impacts at all. At this point, any of those solutions could be the right one. As Ozzy Osbourne famous sang “Don’t look at me for answers, don’t ask me, I don’t know.”

Ozzy was singing about this weekend’s forecast

Sunday looks to be dry and cool with high pressure building back in, but that could be impacted by what happens (or doesn’t happen) on Saturday. We should have more clarity on that when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Rain, snow, or nothing on Saturday? Depends which model you look at. We trust none of them. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Some clouds in the morning, then becoming sunny. High 44-51.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely at night, possibly starting as some freezing rain or wet snow across southern New Hampshire. High 39-46.

Thursday: Cloudy, breezy, and mild, any showers ending in the morning. High 52-59.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 47-54.

Saturday: Partly to mostly ________ with a chance of _______. (We’ll fill in the blanks later this week). High 37-44.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 33-40.

Weekend Outlook: December 10-13, 2021

The next few days will not feel like mid-December, but the pattern won’t exactly be quiet.

Normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll have a cool evening with high pressure in control, but clouds will be streaming in ahead of a warm front. As that front moves through overnight, temperatures will start to rise after midnight, and we could see a few flurries or sprinkles. Friday will be milder with plenty of clouds, but aside from a few stray sprinkles or showers, the day should remain dry. As low pressure heads into southern Canada, it will drag a strong cold front toward the region. Ahead of that front, we’ll have some showers developing Friday night, continuing off-and-on through Saturday. The day won’t be a washout, but it won’t be completely dry either. That’s not the big story for the day though. South to southwest winds will be quite gusty, sending even warmer air into the region. Many locations will likely top 60 degrees once again. The front moves through overnight, with showers ending by daybreak. Skies clear out for Sunday and Monday with high pressure building in, but temperatures will still be near to even above normal for mid-December.

Saturday looks very mild, especially during the afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a flurry or a sprinkle. Low 23-30 during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower. High 42-49.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing late at night. Low 29-36 during the evening, temperatures rise again overnight.

Saturday: Cloudy, windy, and mild with occasional showers. High 57-64.

Saturday night: Cloudy and windy with more showers, possibly a thunderstorm, ending late at night. Low 34-41.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny, still breezy in the morning. High 40-47.

Sunday night: Clear. Low 28-35.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. breezy at times. High 46-53.

Some Snow is on the Way

The first widespread measurable snowfall of the year is on the way for most of us, but overall, it’s not that big of a deal.

Most of the region has already seen snowflakes this season, and even had a coating on the grass in spots, but the system moving in for Wednesday will bring us our first measurable snow of the year. If this were the middle of winter, you’d barely notice it, but since it’s the first one of the season, and it will be timed for the afternoon commute, plenty of people will lose their minds and forget how to drive in the snow.

Very little snow has fallen so far this season. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A low pressure system will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday and head northeastward while strengthening, passing well south and east of New England. At the same time, an upper-level trough of low pressure will move into Northern New England. If these two were to interact, it could create a pretty impressive low pressure system. However, they won’t, so we’re just left in the middle, with some light snow inland and rain along the coast, changing to snow during the evening. There could be some snow showers around during the morning, especially across southern New Hampshire, but the bulk of the activity should move in between 2 and 4pm, just in the for the afternoon commute. Light snow will continue through the evening, with rain south of Boston. The rain should change over to snow during the evening, with everything winding down by midnight, possibly a little later across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts.

The GFS model depicts the progression of the storm across the area. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

There is still a little bit of an unknown with this system. Some of the models are showing an enhanced band of snow developing along the coastline during the evening hours. Not all of the models show this, and the ones that do, don’t all show it in the same area. Some show it in coastal Maine, some along the New Hampshire Seacoast, some near Cape Ann, and some along the South Shore. We’re not convinced this will even develop, but are wary that it may, and will take that into account in the forecast.

So, how much do we expect? For the most part, most of us will see an inch or less (like we said, not a big deal). A few places could see 1-2 inches. There is a low probability that coastal locations could see more than that, if that enhanced band does develop.

The GFS model is closest to our thinking for snowfall amounts. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Overall, this more of a nuisance than anything. Another system may bring in a little light snow early Friday before a big warmup on Saturday, when many of us will break into the 60s once again.

Weekly Outlook: December 6-12, 2021

We’ve got some rather typical December weather coming up this week with the possibility of some snow, temperatures in the 60s, and thunderstorms. Wait, what?

Low pressure will move across southeastern Canada today, dragging a warm front across the region this morning. Some showers are likely ahead of the front, but once it pushes through, gusty southerly winds will bring unseasonably mild conditions in. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the afternoon and evening for parts of southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island, as those southerly winds could gust as high as 40-50 mph at times. Temperatures should get to 60 in much of the region despite plenty of clouds, though it wouldn’t be surprising if we saw more than a little sunshine during the afternoon, which could allow for even milder temperatures than we’re currently expecting.

Winds could gust to 50 mph or higher this afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A strong cold front will move through by evening, with another round of showers ahead of that front, possibly even some thunderstorms. As the much cooler air sweeps in behind the front on gusty west to northwest winds, we could see a few wet snowflakes mix in with the rain before it ends across parts of southern New Hampshire.

One batch of rain moves through this morning and another this evening. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in on Tuesday with dry and seasonably cool conditions, though there are some indications that a few streamers of lake-effect snow could eventually survive the trip eastward and move across the region during the afternoon. It shouldn’t amount to anything more than some scattered flurries, but it is a possibility. Clouds move right back into the region by Tuesday evening ahead of another storm system.

Editorial note: With an active and fast-moving pattern in place, many of the forecast models have been struggling mightily to the point of being useless beyond 2 or 3 days. With that in mind, everything below is highly uncertain, with lower confidence than usual. We’re giving you our current thoughts and “best guess” for lack of a better term, but there’s a decent chance that all of this could change, especially later in the week.

There is considerable uncertainty in the evolution and track of our mid-week storm system, but the basics are that it will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and pass south of New England. How far south is unknown at this point, and will have a significant impact on the forecast. The models are nowhere near close to a consensus at this point, with solutions that range from a track well to the south with little to no impact, to a track closer to the region with the potential for a period of light to perhaps moderate snow across the region with rain near the south coast. For now, our preliminary thinking is a track a decent ways south of the region, with just some light snow, with rain right along the coast. Obviously this is subject to change, and depending on how things look, we may write another blog post tomorrow, since this could be the first accumulating snow of the season for parts of the region. Given the high degree of uncertainty, we’re not going to mention any amounts at this point, and if you see anyone online or in the media posting snow maps you should ignore them, because they’re just as clueless as everyone else.

The models all have differing ideas for what might happen on Wednesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure builds back in for Thursday with dry and chilly conditions, then another storm may quickly follows for Friday. Some of the models show little to no precipitation with this system others show the chance for some rain, starting as snow north and west of Boston. We’ll obviously have a better idea on this system when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday, but for now, we’re just going to call it a chance of rain or snow. That system moves out Friday night, but the active pattern remains in place, with yet another system quickly moving in for the weekend. This one looks much milder, with rain and breezy conditions, though it could end as some snow across the interior as colder air moves in on the backside of the storm.

Saturday could be another very mild day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Early showers, then some sunny breaks develop during the afternoon, becoming windy and mild. High 62-69.

Monday night: Showers and possibly some thunderstorms during the evening, skies start to clear out late at night. Some wet snow may mix with the rain before it ends from southern New Hampshire into central Massachusetts. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and much cooler, clouds stream back in late in the day. Chance for a few flurries. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of snow, except snow or rain along the coast. High 31-38.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 32-39.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 42-49.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild with a chance of showers. High 53-60.

Sunday: Showers may mix with wet snow before ending in the morning. becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 43-50.

Weekend Outlook: December 3-6, 2021

Although we’re in a fairly active pattern, we’re not expecting a lot to happen in terms of the weather over the next few days.

A cold front will move across the region tonight with a few showers accompanying it. It will bring an end to our brief mild spell, as Friday will be quite a bit cooler behind the front, with gusty northwest winds adding a little extra bite to the air. We should have plenty of sunshine at least, with high pressure building in. Another weak disturbance moves through on Saturday with some clouds and just a slight chance for a few flurries or sprinkles. After a little clearing Saturday night clouds will stream back in during the day on Sunday ahead of another frontal system. That system will bring in more showers on Monday, but it will be quite a bit milder, with some places possibly getting close to or over 60 degrees.

Monday has the potential to be a very mild day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Showers likely this evening, then skies start to clear out late at night, becoming breezy. Low 30-37.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy. High 38-45.

Friday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 19-26.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few flurries or sprinkles. High 36-43.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Sunday: Some sun early, then clouds stream back in. High 40-47.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing after midnight. Low 28-35, but temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Monday: Breezy and mild with some showers likely. High 54-61.

Weekly Outlook: November 29 – December 5, 2021

We’re into the time of the year where the models are even more useless than normal beyond a few days out.

You’re better off trusting this guy than you are trusting the models more than 3 days out at this time of year.

You’ll recall in our Weekend Outlook we talked about the potential for our first accumulating snow of the season for Sunday night into this morning. Well, before that could happen, another threat materialized for Friday night into Saturday morning that did coat the ground with snow across parts of the region, and this morning’s system was a complete dud. Having said that, much of this week looks quiet despite the pattern actually being fairly active, and we’re fairly confident in that (for now).

Low pressure pulls away from the region today with gradually clearing expected by tonight. High pressure will start to build in for tonight and Tuesday with dry and chilly conditions, but another weak disturbance will move towards the area. It will spread in some clouds on Tuesday, but little precipitation is expected, except possibly near the South Coast. High pressure builds back in on Wednesday with dry and slightly milder weather. Unfortunately more clouds are expected as another cold front approaches from the west. Some showers are likely ahead of that front on Thursday, but temperatures on Thursday should be quite mild (by early December standards), with some places topping 50. That front moves through during the afternoon, then high pressure builds back in with much cooler weather for Friday.

Temperatures could top 50 across parts of the region on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Next weekend is highly uncertain right now, and this is where the unreliability of the models beyond a few days comes into the play. Some of the models are showing the possibility for a system to come through on Saturday with some light snow, others aren’t. They are also showing the potential for another system Sunday night into Monday, which could be a messy storm. At this point, it’s fair to question both what the models are showing, and the timing of these systems. So, when you get down to the detailed forecast later on the page, you’re going to see things worded as a “chance”. Obviously, we should have a better idea of what to expect when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday. Then again, when we did last weekend’s outlook on Wednesday, we didn’t see that potential for light snow late Friday and Friday night. In other words, don’t go cancelling any plans for next weekend yet.

Saturday could see flakes or it could be dry. at this point, we’re not sure. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few rain or snow showers during the morning across eastern Massachusetts. High 34-41.

Monday night: Clearing. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Some early sun, then clouds stream back in, slight chance for a shower or two near the South Coast. High 35-42.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: A few sunny breaks early, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 40-47.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with a few showers early, then showers are more likely at night. High 47-54.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 38-45.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. High 36-43.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 34-41.

Thanksgiving Weekend Outlook: November 25-29, 2021

It’s coming. You know what we’re talking about. It’s that time of year. You’re not going to like it, but you’re going to have to deal with it. No, we’re not talking about the non-stop Black Friday sales ads or the constant barrage of holiday music. It’s something more insidious. That four-letter word most of you hate. It begins with the letter “S”. And it’s in this forecast.

Before we get to that, let’s talk about Thanksgiving. The high pressure area that provided us with chilly weather yesterday and today will slide offshore tonight and Thanksgiving Day, allowing milder air to start to move into the region. However, a strong cold front will also be approaching from the west. Thanksgiving will start off with some sunshine, but clouds will stream in and thicken up during the afternoon and evening. A few showers are likely Friday morning into early afternoon before the cold front finally moves offshore. High pressure then moves in for Saturday and Sunday with the chilly weather returning along with sunshine. By Sunday afternoon though, clouds will start to stream back into the region ahead of the next storm system.

Heading out early Saturday morning? Wind chills will only be in the teens. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A Saskatchewan Screamer (it’s not an Alberta Clipper, since it originates in Saskatchewan) will dive into the Northern Plains and across the Midwest over the weekend, and by Sunday night, it will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This much seems fairly certain. From here, there are a lot of things that we’re not terribly confident in, so we’ll give you our thoughts and best estimate right now, and will refine it this weekend, if need be. At this point, 1 of 3 things is likely to happen:

  1. The storm continues east-northeast, passing out to sea well to our south with minimal impact here.
  2. The storm turns more toward the northeast, bringing a period of light rain or snow here as it heads towards Atlantic Canada while strengthening.
  3. An approaching upper-level trough of low pressure captures the low, allowing it to hang around longer, and it brings a period of heavier snow and/or a wintry mix to the region, especially north and west of Boston.
Monday could be wet or white, or maybe even dry. The models aren’t sure yet and neither are we. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Depending on which forecast model you look at, any of these scenarios is possible. For now, we’re leaning towards scenario number 2. Precipitation should develop Sunday night and continue into Monday. It may start as rain for much of the region with snow north and west of Boston. Some sleet and/or freezing rain could mix in across the interior, with a change to all snow possible into Boston and points south as the system pulls away later on Monday. It’s WAY too early for any kind of estimate of accumulations, especially with the uncertainty in the forecast, but if (and that’s a big “if”) our thinking is in the ballpark, we’d be looking at the potential for a few inches north and west of Boston. There are some models predicting a very significant snowstorm, and you won’t have to look too hard on social media to find them, as all of the “weather weenies” are excited for the first potential “big” storm of the season. We prefer to deal with what we know, and not deal in hype. If this does look like it will materialize, we’ll have another blog post about it this weekend.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 22-29.

Thanksgiving: Morning sunshine, then clouds stream in. High 47-54.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 32-39.

Friday: Cloudy with some showers likely, mainly during the morning and early afternoon, becoming breezy in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy. Low 23-30.

Saturday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 34-41.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 20-27.

Sunday: Some early sun, then clouds return. High 35-42.

Sunday night: Cloudy with light snow or rain developing from southwest to northeast. Low 23-30.

Monday: Cloudy with a chance of snow or a wintry mix north and west of Boston, chance of rain, possibly mixed with a little wet snow south. High 32-39 north and west of Boston, 39-46 south of Boston.

Weekly Outlook: November 22-28, 2021

The weather shouldn’t impact any Thanksgiving travel plans you might have, but that doesn’t mean the entire week will be quiet.

We’re starting the week off on a wet note with showers ahead of a strong cold front. Temperatures are starting off mild, but that will change in a hurry. The front moves through by early afternoon, bringing an end to the rain, but much cooler air will quickly settle in. High pressure builds in for Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in a couple of very chilly days. While most of us will have sunshine to go with the cool weather, it could be a different story across parts of the Cape and Islands. As the chilly air comes in on north to northeast winds, it will move over the still-relatively mild waters of the Atlantic. This may result in some ocean-effect snow showers, especially across the Outer Cape. This is far from definite, and accumulations, if any, would be very minor, but don’t be surprised if flakes are flying in places like Truro or Chatham later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Tuesday afternoon will feature wind chills in the 20s and lower 30s. Image provided by Weatherbell.

The high slides off to the east of Thanksgiving Day, allowing milder air to move back into the region. Another cold front approaches from the west on Friday, another round of showers is expected. Even colder air returns behind that front for next week. With an upper-level low moving across the Northeast at the same time we’ll have some clouds and possibly a few rain or snow showers popping up.

Temperatures may struggle to reach 40 on Sunday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Cloudy with showers ending by early afternoon. High 51-58 in the morning, then temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Monday night: Gradual clearing late at night. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 35-42.

Tuesday night: Clear skies, except clouds and possibly some snow showers over the Outer Cape. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 36-43.

Thanksgiving Day: Morning sun, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 48-55.

Friday: Cloudy with showers likely, mainly in the morning, some afternoon sunny breaks may develop. High 42-49.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, slight chance for a rain or snow shower. High 36-43.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 37-44.

Weekend Outlook: November 19-22, 2021

Hope you enjoyed the mild weather today, because it’ll be a distant memory by tomorrow.

Normal high temperatures in mid-November are within a degree or two of 50. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A cold front will move across the region tonight, bringing some showers with it, but it will also sweep our mild weather offshore and replace it with temperatures closer to normal for mid-November. An upper-level disturbance moves across the region on Friday with some clouds and maybe a shower, but with high pressure building in at the surface, it will turn drier and cooler. That high keeps us dry and cool on Saturday, but clouds will start streaming in late in the day ahead of the next storm system. A warm front moves through on Sunday, allowing temperatures to moderate again, but some showers or even a period of steady rain is likely Sunday night into Monday as another cold front approaches the region.

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 33-40.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy, but clouds may pop up during the afternoon. High 42-49.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 24-31.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to increase again late in the day. High 40-47.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 30-37.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds, showers may develop late in the day. High 50-57.

Sunday night: Periods of rain and showers, breezy. Low 42-49 in the evening, then temperatures rise a bit at night.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with showers ending. High 52-59.

Weekly Outlook: November 15-21, 2021

Much of the upcoming week should be fairly quiet and on the cool side, but there are some exceptions.

The week starts of with low pressure moving into southeastern Canada while an upper-level low pressure system moves into the Northeast. A few showers are possible behind the departing surface system, but with the upper-level system moving in, we’ll see plenty of clouds, and possibly another shower or two. Across the hills of central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire, those showers could have some wet snow mixed in. High pressure builds in for Tuesday with sunshine and cool temperatures. Clouds will start to move back in on Wednesday ahead of a warm front, but it doesn’t look like there will be much in the way of shower activity with this front.

Normal high temperatures are within a degree or two of 50 in mid-November. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday looks like it will be quite a mild day by November standards, with many locations topping 60 degrees. However, a cold front will be approaching from the west, so some showers are likely by late in the day and especially at night. Could some wet snow mix in as colder air rushes in early Friday morning before the rain all moves offshore? Sure it’s possible, especially well north and west of Boston. Another upper-level disturbance moves through on Friday with more clouds and possibly a rain or snow shower. High pressure returns on Saturday, then clouds stream back in on Sunday ahead of yet another weak storm system, with some showers possible by late in the day.

Thursday looks quite mild. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Early clouds, maybe a shower, then sunshine develops, but clouds return in the afternoon ad possibly another shower. possibly mixed with some snow across the interior hills. High 43-50.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear and breezy. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy at times. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Morning sun, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 46-53.

Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, and mild with showers developing at night. High 59-66.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, and cooler, showers end in the morning, possibly mixed with some wet snow well north and west of Boston. High 43-50.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 39-46.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, chance for showers late in the day. High 45-52.