Douglas, Gonzalo, and Hanna All Threaten Land

Between the Atlantic and the Central Pacific Ocean we have three named storms, and all of them will threaten land areas this weekend.

Tropical Storm Hanna continues to strengthen in the western Gulf of Mexico. Loop provided by NOAA.

We’ll start again with Tropical Storm Hanna, since it is the most immediate threat to land. As of 8pm EDT, the system was centered about 190 miles east-of Corpus Christi, Texas, moving toward the west at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph and additional strengthening is likely. Hanna could become a hurricane before making landfall in south Texas on Saturday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to Sargent. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Baffin Bay southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande, and from Mesquite Bay northward to San Luis Pass.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Hanna. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

A storm surge of 2-4 feet is likely near and to the north of landfall. and strong winds are also likely near the coast and a short distance inland near landfall, but heavy rain and inland freshwater flooding remains the biggest threat with this system. Slow-moving tropical systems have produced significant rainfall in Texas many times before, and while we’re not expecting 50+ inches like Hurricane Harvey produced a few years ago, widespread totals of 6-12 inches with isolated amounts of up to 20 inches are possible through early next week. To the north, rainfall of 2-6 inches will likely cause flooding from Austin and San Antonio over to Houston.

Hanna will produce very heavy rainfall across South Texas over the next several days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While Hanna is the immediate threat to the US, out in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Gonzalo is a threat to the southern Windward Islands. As of 8pm EDT, Gonzalo was centered about 340 miles east of the southern Windward Islands, moving toward the west at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph. Drier air has taken a toll on the system, and will continue to do so. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Tobago, and Grenada.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Gonzalo. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Gonzalo’s future remains very uncertain. The official forecast calls for Gonzalo to restrengthen a little over the next 24 hours, then weaken and dissipate after moving into the eastern Caribbean. However, at this point, it is just as like that it weakens and opens up into a wave before it crosses the islands on Saturday. No matter what it does, it will bring some squally weather to parts of the southern Windward Islands on Saturday. We’ll also need to keep an eye on what the remnants of the system do as they move across the Caribbean. Conditions in the western Caribbean could be a bit more favorable early next week and the water is plenty warm, so regeneration is not out of the question.

In the Central Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Douglas is starting to slowly weaken after peaking as a Category 4 Hurricane on Thursday. As of 8pm EDT, Douglas was centered about 725 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 115 mph, making Douglas a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional weakening is expected on Saturday as Douglas moves over cooler waters. A Hurricane Watch has been posted for Hawaii County and Maui County, including Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe.

Forecast track for Hurricane Douglas. Image provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

The forecast track for Douglas has shifted northward a bit over the past 24 hours, but still indicates the potential for Douglas to impact Hawaii as a weakening hurricane on Sunday, though some models keep the center north of the island chain completely. Rough surf, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall are likely across the islands starting late Saturday and continuing into Monday. Rainfall totals of 6-12 inches and locally up to 20 inches may cause flooding in some areas.

Finally, we’re keeping our eyes on a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The wave isn’t that organized right now, but as it crosses the Atlantic, conditions could become more favorable for development. In fact, many models do show this developing into a tropical cyclone towards mid-week, and possibly becoming a threat to the eastern Caribbean by late next week. Model forecasts 5-7 days out aren’t terribly reliable, but there are some that show the system becoming a threat in about 10-12 days to anywhere from Central America to the Gulf to the East Coast, to Bermuda, to a system that passes harmlessly out to sea. In other words, it’s WAY to early to speculate about a system that hasn’t even formed yet. Yes, it’s something to watch, but that’s about it right now.

Weekend Outlook: July 24-27, 2020

This outlook will be rather brief, because the forecast is rather simple. We’ll dry out today and Saturday, then heat and humidity return for Sunday and Monday.

Monday looks to be the hottest day, when the heat index could reach 100 in some spots. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and less humid. High 80-87.

Friday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 63-70.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 83-90.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, hot, and humid. High 88-95.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy and muggy. Low 69-76.

Monday: Partly sunny, hot, and humid. High 89-96.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo looks healthier and TD 8 has become Tropical Storm Hanna in the Gulf of Mexico. Loop provided by NOAA.

We’ll likely publish another blog on the tropics late Friday, but here’s a quick update for you. Tropical Depression 8 has become Tropical Storm Hanna. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for much of the Central and Southern Texas coast, all the way to the mouth of the Rio Grande. A track towards South Texas is likely with landfall on Saturday. Heavy rain is still the main threat. Tropical Storm Gonzalo looks a little healthier this evening, and will likely cross the southern Windward Islands on Saturday. Once it gets past the islands, its future is still very uncertain. In the Eastern Pacific, Douglas is now a Category 4 Hurricane, but will likely start to weaken today. It should pass very close to or right across the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday as either a weakening hurricane or a strong tropical storm.

Triple Trouble in the Tropics?

Scheduling Note: Our Weekend Outlook will be published early Friday this week instead of Thursday afternoon as it usually is.

The tropics had been relatively quiet in the past couple of weeks, but we suddenly have 3 storms that are all threats to land.

Tropical Depression 8 is trying to get organized in the Gulf of Mexico while Tropical Storm Gonzalo heads toward the Windward Islands. Loop provided by NOAA.

We’ll start with Tropical Depression 8, since it is the most immediate threat to land. As of 11am EDT, the system was centered about 380 miles east-southeast of Port O’Connor, Texas, moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. The system should continue on a general westward track for the next day or two, with some strengthening possible. As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to High Island.

Forecast track for Tropical Depression 8. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

While gusty winds and some rough surf are likely along the Texas coast, the biggest threat from this system will be heavy rainfall. Slow-moving tropical systems have produced significant rainfall in Texas many times before, and while we’re not expecting 50+ inches like Hurricane Harvey produced a few years ago, widespread totals of 3-6 inches with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches are possible this weekend. That would produce flooding in many areas.

TD 8 will produce heavy rain across much of southern Texas and parts of the Gulf Coast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While TD 8 is the immediate threat to the US, out in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Gonzalo presents a threat to parts of the Windward Islands. As of 11am EDT, Gonzalo was centered about 885 miles east of the southern Windward Islands, moving toward the west at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Barbados as well as St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Gonzalo. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Gonzalo’s future is very uncertain. The official forecast calls for Gonzalo to become a hurricane later today, then start to weaken after moving across the Windward Islands this weekend and into the eastern Caribbean. However, Gonzalo looks less organized on satellite photos today, and is fighting off some dry air aloft. There is a decent chance that the system could weaken or even open up into a wave before reaching the Windward Islands. How it develops over the next 12-24 hours will give us a much better idea of what the future holds for it.

In the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Douglas continues to strengthen this morning, and could become a threat to Hawaii this weekend.

Hurricane Douglas continues to strengthen in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Loop provided by NOAA.

As of 11am EDT, Douglas was centered about 1335 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, moving toward the west-northwest at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 120 mph, making Douglas a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today before a weakening trend begins on Friday as Douglas moves over cooler waters.

Forecast track for Hurricane Douglas. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Douglas is expected to only gradually weaken while heading towards the west-northwest over the next several days. On this track, Douglas is expected to pass close to or over parts of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Obviously which islands would be impacted and what the threats would be will depend on the exact track Douglas takes, as well as how quickly it weakens. At this point, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and rough surf appear mostly likely for the Big Island, but the entire island chain could be impacted.

While Hawaii has been impacted by many weakening storms passing by the islands, a direct hit is actually fairly rare. Since 1871, only 3 hurricanes and 4 tropical storms have actually made landfall on the islands. The last system to make landfall in Hawaii was Tropical Storm Olivia in 2018. The last hurricane to make landfall in Hawaii was Hurricane Iniki in 1992.

Very few tropical systems actually make landfall in Hawaii. Image provided by NOAA.

Beyond these systems, there’s nothing on the immediate horizon. Some of the longer-range ensemble models are showing the potential for a wave to move off the the African coast and develop while crossing the Atlantic next week. This is still several days away, and while the likelihood of it happening is fairly low, we are getting into the time of year when some of these waves do start rolling off of Africa and maintain themselves while crossing the Atlantic. Just like in the winter when you’ll see Day 16 model images of a mega-blizzard for the Northeast, we’re already seeing people posting model images for a potential East Coast hurricane 2 weeks from now. Don’t buy into the hype. Until something actually develops, it doesn’t exist, let alone present a threat.

Weekly Outlook: July 20-26, 2020

This week will feature a little bit of everything, at least in terms of summer weather.

Heat Advisories are in effect for much of the I-95 corridor from Portland, ME to Richmond, VA again today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We start the week off with more heat and humidity today. Offshore high pressure continues to pump hot and humid weather in, and as a result, Heat Advisories remain in effect for a large portion of the region. Highs will get into the 90s again for much of the area today, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to middle 70s. That combination of heat and humidity will make it feel like its 100 or higher during the afternoon. Relief is on the way though, as a cold front will move across the region later today. This front may produce some showers and thunderstorms, but we’re not that confident that we’ll see widespread activity. Any storms that do form may produce heavy downpours and strong winds, but a severe weather outbreak doesn’t look likely at this point.

The combination of heat and hmidity will make it feel like its over 100 this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The front moves offshore tonight, and “cooler” and “drier” air settles in for Tuesday. While it won’t exactly be a lot cooler or a lot drier, it will still be more comfortable compared to today. Our respite doesn’t last long though as a warm front approaches on Wednesday. While the front may produce a few showers or thunderstorms, the more noticeable impact will be to bring the humidity back in. It’ll be quite warm as well, but cloud cover will prevent us from getting too hot once again.

We need any rain we can get. Precipitation is well below normal over the past couple of months across the region. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Another cold front approaches on Thursday, with more showers and thunderstorms expected. Again, some of them could be quite strong, but a widespread severe weather event doesn’t appear likely at this time. Much cooler and drier weather does finally move in behind this front for Friday and Saturday. As for next Sunday, that’s a bit of a question mark at this point. Most of the models show a storm system passing to the north, but that’s where the similarities end and the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears starts. One model has little to no precipitation, with hot and humid conditions. Another has it warm but dry with precipitation moving in at night. A third model has it cloudy and mild with showers during the afternoon. We’re going to play the middle ground right now, knowing full well that we’ve got plenty of time for the models to find some common ground and decide on a solution before we issue our Weekend Outlook Thursday afternoon.

Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s by Saturday would be a welcome change. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Some dense fog along the South Coast early, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds with some showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. High 89-96, cooler right along the South Coast. Heat indices could reach as high as 104 in some spots.

Monday night: Clearing and less humid. Low 65-72.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 85-92.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Partly sunny and humid with some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible. High 82-89, cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun with some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, breezy. High 82-89.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny and drier. High 77-84.

Saturday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 80-87.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day and at night. High 83-90.

Weekend Outlook: July 17-20, 2020

Your air conditioner has gotten a much-needed rest for the past few days, but it’s about to get a workout. Some typical summertime weather is coming up for the weekend with heat and humidity settling into New England.

Midday temperatures in the 70s in mid-July? It doesn’t get much better than that. Image provided by NOAA.

High pressure remains in control today with mild temperatures (a little below normal for mid-July) and comfrtoable humidity levels, but that’s about to change. A warm front will send clouds into the region tonight, with some showers and thunderstorms likely on Friday. Most of the storms shouldn’t be that strong, but could contain some heavy downpours. We’re not expecting much, if any, severe weather. Temperatures will remain a little below normal, but it will be breezy and significantly more humid.

Dewpoints could reach the lower to middle 70s by Monday across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in for the weekend and with it comes the heat and humidity. Temperatures will be near or above 90 on Saturday, and should be in the 90s away from the South Coast for Sunday and Monday. Dewpoints will likely get above 70 for Sunday and Monday as well, so it will be quite uncomfortable if you’re outside for any length of time, as the heat index will be apporoaching (or even exceeding) 100 in some spots. We may get a little relief Monday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves through, triggering a few showers and thunderstorms, but that’s about it.

The heat index will be near or over 100 across the region Monday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thinking about heading to the beach or out on a boat? Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s at beaches along the South Coast and lower to middle 80s at beaches along the east coast this weekend. You’ll have south winds 10-15 mph on Friday, becoming southwest over the weekend, and seas generally 1-3 feet. With a UV Index in the very high range, you’ll start to get a sunburn in just 15 minutes or so, so make sure you put on sunscreen!

Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, a few showers are possible towards daybreak. Low 56-63.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 71-78.

Friday night: Clearing. Low 63-70.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, humid. High 86-93.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 65-72.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. High 90-97, a little cooler right at the coast.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 71-78.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, hot, and humid, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 90-97, a little cooler right at the coast.

Weekly Outlook: July 13-19, 2020

Much of this week will feature typical summer-time weather in New England, with warm to hot temperatures, humidity levels ranging from somewhat comfortable to not very comfortable, and some pop-up showers and thunderstorms.

There is a marginal risk for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The week starts off with the most active weather day as a cold front starts to approach the region. A few showers are likely this morning as an upper-level disturbance swings through, but we should see some sunshine develop by midday. How much sunshine we get will help determine how much the atmosphere will destabilize again in the afternoon. As the front moves in from the west, showers and thunderstorms will develop. Many of these storms will produce heavy downpours, and some could redevelop over the same locations, resulting in some flash flooding. Depending on how much sun we see in the late morning and early afternoon, we could be looking at some severe storms, with strong winds and hail as well. There is even a slight chance for a tornado to form. How quickly the front moves will also help determine how long we’ll be dealing with the storms, and what areas have the best chance to have them. Right now, it looks like most of the storms will be during the 1pm-8pm time frame.

The HRRR model depicts a possible scenario for thunderstorm development today. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

The front moves offshore tonight, and cooler and drier air starts to settle in. However, an upper-level low pressure area will be moving in at the same time. As this upper-level low moves right across New England on Tuesday, it will help produce another round of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Most of these shouldn’t be strong, but with a pool of cold air aloft, we could see some small hail in a few of them.

Dewpoints could drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The upper-level low moves offshore for Wednesday, and we’ll be under the influence high pressure for Wednesday and Thursday, with sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures (tempered by a seabreeze along the coast), and moderate humidity levels. Warmer and more humid air moves in for Friday and the weekend. A series of weak upper-level disturbances will also move across the region, creating a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Heat and humidity return to the region next weekend. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A few showers early, then becoming partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and evening. Some of them may produce heavy downpours. High 82-89.

Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms end during the evening, then skies clear out. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: A sunny start, then clouds develop with a few showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. High 76-83.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Some patchy morning fog, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 74-81, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with some showers and thunderstorms possible, especially during the morning, a little more humid. High 77-84.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 83-90, cooler along the coast.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, a shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86-93.

Another Short-Lived Tropical Storm Develops

The 2020 Hurricane Season has had two themes so far: 1. Tropical Storms that aren’t really tropical. 2. Storms that fall into the “Blink and you’ll miss it” category. We’ve got another one out there, and this is squarely in category #2.

Fay looks like a typical tropical system impacting the Northeast, with the bulk of the clouds and precipitation north and west of the center. Loop provided by NOAA.

A disturbance that moved from the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeast last week moved off the South Carolina coast on Wednesday. After sitting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, thunderstorm activity began to increase, and a new center of circulation developed Thursday afternoon. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigating the system determined that it had a closed circulation (barely), and the system was designated as Tropical Storm Fay.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Fay. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Fay is the 6th named storm of the season (Whether all 6 deserved to be named is highly debatable), and is the earliest we’ve ever had an “F” storm in the Atlantic. The previous record was held by Tropical Storm Franklin during the 2005 season, which developed on July 22. Despite the record start in terms of named storms, most of the storms have been short-lived and of little impact. Meteorologists use a metric called ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) to determine the severity of a hurricane season. It takes into account how strong storms are, how long they remain strong, and how long they last. Despite having 6 named storms so far, the Atlantic has an ACE of 7.4 this season. While this is more than double the normal through July 10 of 3.1, it is exactly the same as the Western Pacific Ocean, where only 2 storms have formed so far this year.

Tropical Cyclone Activity is below normal across the Northern Hemispehere thus far, despite the “active” Atlantic. Image provided by Colorado State University.

While there are still a few minor details that need to be determined, Fay’s future is fairly clear. With a ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic, and a trough of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes, Fay should head northward for the next 24 hours, hugging the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The official forecast from the Hurricane Center has Fay make landfall near Atlantic City later today, but a slight jog to the east will keep the center offshore longer, with landfall farther to the north. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Fenwick Island, Delaware to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island Sound. This includes southern Delaware Bay as well all of Long Island and southern Connecticut, and also New York City.

Most of the rainbands assoc

Fay currently has maximum sustained winds near 60 mph (Edit: Yeah, right), and little additional strengthening is expected before landfall. The storm is moving northward at 12 mph, and should pick up a little speed today. This track will keep most of the strongest winds offshore, but right along the coast winds will remain brisk. Sustained winds near 40 mph were reported along the Delaware coast earlier this morning.

Fay will help put a dent in the developing drought across the Northeast. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Fay’s biggest threat will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, especially from the Mid-Atlantic states into eastern New York and western New England. Much of this region has been dry for a few months, and drought conditions are beginning to develop. Some of this rainfall will help alleviate that, but too much rainfall too quickly will just run off and not help much at all. By the time Fay pulls away early Saturday, rainfall totals of 2-5 inches are expected from the Delmarva Peninsula into western New England and eastern New York, mainly along and just west of the expected track of Fay. Some isolated totals in excess of 6 inches are possible. Amounts will taper off the farther east or west you head away from this area.

The heaviest rain is expected from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Hudson Valley. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Once Fay dissipates, there don’t appear to be any other areas that may develop in the next week or two. It’s still early in the season, and easterly waves will begin rolling off of western Africa soon, with the climatological peak of hurricane season still more than a month away.

Weekend Outlook: July 10-13, 2020

Despite the gloom and doom you may have heard or read about elsewhere, this weekend is not going to be a washout.

The heat index is already in the mid-90s across much of the region early this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure remains in control for the rest of your Thursday afternoon, with warm to hot and humid conditions. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm is possible, but if any do form, they’ll be few and far between, and most of us will remain dry. Another warm and muggy night is expected tonight before we turn our attention to Friday.

Ensemble forecasts keep the track of the system close to the coast, and well to our west. Image provided by the University at Albany.

An area of low pressure is trying to develop off the North Carolina coastline this afternoon. Whether this system develops or not, it will head northward over the next 24-48 hours. This will send a surge of tropical moisture northward, resulting in some heavy rain and thunderstorms. Obviously where the heavy rain ends up being focused will be dependent on the eventual development and track of the system, but right now, it looks like the heaviest rain should stay well to our west. Sure, we’ll have some heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning, but this should not be a big deal. Some of the thunderstorms could be quite strong, with gusty winds, downpours, and an isolated tornado is possible, but aside from the slim chance for a tornado, we’ve been dealing with similar conditions for the past couple of weeks on a regular basis.

The heaviest rain should stay well to our west with this system. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The showers should end Saturday morning, with partial sunshine developing for the afternoon. However, a warm and humid airmass will remain in place, so we could pop a few showers and thunderstorms again during the afternoon hours. Beyond that, it’ll be more of the same. We’ll have an upper-level trough of low pressure moving into the Northeast, which will help to trigger some afternoon showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday afternoons, but otherwise, it’ll just be partly to mostly sunny, very warm, and humid.

We usually don’t forecast more than a week out, and this outlook is focusing mainly on this weekend, but we think it’s worth mentioning that some of the long-range guidance is showing the potential for a significant heat wave late next week into the following week. While the core of the heat will likely be focused on the Midwest and parts of the Plains states, it could still get hot around here as well. We’ll have a better look at this in our Weekly Outlook that will be issued early Monday morning.

There is a moderate risk for excessive heat in our area next weekend into the following week. Image provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Friday: Becoming cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 81-88.

Friday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely, some of them may produce heavy rain. Low 65-72.

Saturday: Showers end early, then becoming partly sunny, but another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible in the afternoon. High 79-86.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for a few late-day showers or thunderstorms. High 82-89.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. High 82-89.

Weekly Outlook: July 6-12, 2020

We’ve got some typical summertime weather coming up for most of the week, with heat, humidity, and thunderstorms all expected.

The week starts off with high pressure building in from the north, which will bring in sunshine, lower humidity, and slightly cooler temperatures, especially along the coast. By Tuesday, however, that high will move off to the south, allowing more humid air into the region, along the the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.

You’ll start to hear the “Triple-H” talk for Wednesday through Friday, but it may not quite qualify. It’ll be quite warm to hot, with temperatures will into the 80s and lower 90s in many locations. It’ll also be quite humid, as dewpoints will get well into the 60s, and possibly even lower 70s. Will it be hazy? Probably not. Even without the haze, it’ll still be quite comfortable for a lot of people.

Dewpoints could be in the 70s across the region by Friday afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The end of the week and into the weekend is a bit of a question mark right now. Low pressure currently over the Southeast will move off the Carolina coastline by midweek, and then head northeastward up the coastline. The National Hurricane Center has already given it a 40% chance of development before the end of the week. Given their recent track record, we’re assuming that assuming it moves off the coast, as long as it’s spinning and has a thunderstorm nearby, it’ll be called Tropical Depression Six, or maybe they’ll go right to Tropical Storm Fay. Either way, it may very well have some impact here by Friday or Saturday. The most likely impact is for some heavy rainfall. We’ll already have a very soupy airmass in place, and adding tropical air to that will help wring out even more moisture. While this will help put a dent in the developing drought for some areas, it may also lead to flooding in others. We could also see some impacts from wind, depending on the development of the system, and rough surf along the coast. Unsettled weather may hang around through the weekend, as the system may be slow to depart.

Low pressure over the Southeast could become a tropical system and track up the coast later this week. Image provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research,

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, just a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 76-83.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 81-88.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, a shower or thunderstorm may pop up. High 86-93.

Friday: Early sun, then clouds move in, some showers and thunderstorms develop, possibly become a steady rain late in the day and at night. High 84-91.

Saturday: Rain ends early, then becoming partly sunny, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening. High 80-87.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, more showers and thunderstorms are possible. High 82-89.

Weekend Outlook: July 3-6, 2020

We’ve passed the midpoint of the year, and arrived at the Fourth of July weekend, so everything will be great for a barbecue, right? For the most part.

High pressure remains in control for the rest of the day, though a few showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly well north and west of Boston trough the evening. Friday will be a different story. We’ve got a backdoor cold front dropping down (what month is this?) and it will bring in plenty of clouds, some showers, and maybe even a thunderstorm. We’ll likely reach our highs for the day during the morning, with steady or falling temperatures in the afternoon.

Temperatures on Friday will not be typical for early July. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure drops southward on Saturday, resulting in more sunshine for the Fourth of July. However, with easterly winds, it will be on the cool side, especially if you’re closer to the coast. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal, with most places staying in the 70s, but a few coastal locations may stay in the 60s.

The high slides offshore Saturday night, allowing milder air to move back in, but another cold front will be approaching on Sunday. This front will probably produce a few showers and thunderstorms, but the day likely won’t be a washout. Another disturbance may bring in some additional showers on Monday.

The thunderstorms over the last week helped a little, but we still need more rain to help alleviate the developing drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, slight chance for an evening shower. Low 63-70.

Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy with some showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High 70-77 in the morning, temperatures drop a bit in the afternoon.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Low 57-64.

Independence Day: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy, some fog may redevelop, especially across southeastern Massachusetts. Low 58-65.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 80-87, cooler along the coast.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with showers and thunderstorms possible. High 80-87.