Weekend Outlook: September 2-5, 2022

Labor Day Weekend starts off with some fantastic early September weather, but it may not end that way.

High pressure builds in for tonight and Friday with generally dry and cool conditions. Clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling tonight, which may allow some of the normally cooler locations to drop into the 40s. As the high slides offshore on Saturday, temperatures and humidity levels will start to rise a little bit. Sunday looks even warmer and a bit more humid, but with a cold front approaching we may see some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. A few more showers or storms are possible on Labor Day before the front pushes offshore and stalls out. We should not that some of the forecast models are painting a rather wet picture for late Sunday and Monday. We’re not buying that at the moment. Things could obviously change, and we’ll re-evaluate that when we issue our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning, but don’t go cancelling any Labor Day plans just yet.

Some models show the potential for heavy rain late Sunday and Labor Day. We’re not buying it. Sure, there will probably be some rain, but not the outrageous amounts other models show. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

In other news, we have our first named “tropical” system in nearly two months, but it’s not exactly in the tropics. Tropical Storm Danielle is located about 950 miles west of the Azores, drifting toward the east at 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 60, and the forecast calls for strengthening. Danielle could become the first hurricane of the year in the Atlantic on Friday. It is not a threat to any land areas.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Danielle. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Thursday night: Clear and cool. Low 48-55.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79. Offshore: Northeast 5-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Friday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85. Offshore: East 5-10 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Partly sunny with some showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day, mainly north of the Mass Pike. High 81-88. Offshore: South 5-10 knots, seas 2 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly during the evening. Low 59-66.

Monday: More clouds than sun with a chance for a few showers. High 70-77. Offshore: East 5-10 knots, seas 2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers.

Weekly Outlook: August 29 – September 5, 2022

The last few days of August and beginning of September, including Labor Day weekend look to be similar to the rest of the summer, warm and dry for the most part.

Despite last week’s heavy rain, rainfall is still 3-6 inches below normal over the past 90 days, and this week will provide little help. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The week starts off with high pressure moving offshore, allowing for a sunny, warm, and humid day today. Tuesday looks similar, but we’ll see clouds start to move in as a cold front approaches the region. That front will produce some showers and possibly a thunderstorm Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before it pushes offshore. After that, high pressure builds back in with cooler and drier conditions for later Wednesday into Friday. As the high moves offshore, warmer weather returns for the holiday weekend. Some models show the potential for a cold front to bring in a few showers late Sunday, then cooler weather for Monday. We’re a little skeptical on the showers at this point, but Labor Day does look to be a bit cooler.

Dewpoints will be in the 60s and lower 70s through Wednesday morning, then drop into the 40s and lower 50s for Thursday and Friday. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 84-91.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, humid. High 86-93.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible, maybe a rumble of thunder. Low 66-73.

Wednesday: Any showers end early, then becoming mostly sunny. High 82-89.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, drier. High 77-84.

Friday: Wall-to-wall sunshine. High 73-80.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 79-86.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers late in the day. High 83-90.

Labor Day: Partly sunny and cooler. High 72-79.

Weekend Outlook: August 26-29, 2022

The final weekend of August is shaping up to be a rather nice one weather-wise.

High pressure slides offshore tonight, and a cold front moves toward the region on Friday. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front, and a few of them could be quite strong, but it does not look like a widespread severe outbreak. Some of the storms may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours, but we probably won’t see the amount of rain we had in some of the storms earlier this week. The front moves offshore Friday night, then high pressure builds in for the weekend with dry and seasonably warm conditions. We may start to warm up a bit on Monday along with seeing humidity levels start to rise again as the high slides offshore.

There is a slight risk for severe weather across parts of New England on Friday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Friday: Early sun, then clouds move in with showers and thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon. High 84-91. Offshore: South winds 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, seas 2-3 feet, visibility under 1 mile in morning fog, 1-3 miles in late-day showers and thunderstorms,

Friday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, followed by clearing. Low 62-69.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, not as humid. High 77-84, cooler along the coast. Offshore: East winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 76-83. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 83-90. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Weekly Outlook: August 22-28, 2022

The week will start off on a damp note, but dry weather will return for a good chunk of the remainder of the week.

Low pressure will pass well north and west of the region over the next 36-48 hours. It will send a warm front toward the region today, triggering showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, but temperatures will actually remain on the cool side. Some of the models are showing the potential for some heavy rainfall today, but we’ve seen that before, and we’re not falling for it again. Will it rain? Probably. Heavy rain? Don’t count on it. Of course, we could use the rain, so it some heavy rain does materialize, that’d probably be a good thing, but we just don’t see it happening. Showers taper off tonight, and we could see some sunshine early on Tuesday. However, a cold front will be approaching, and it may trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly north and west of Boston.

Several models show the potential for heavy rain across the region today and Tuesday. We’re not buying it. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

After that, high pressure builds in for most of the remainder of the week with very warm to hot conditions. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible during some of the afternoons, but they probably won’t be that widespread. The best chance appears to be on Friday when a frontal system moves through, with some cooler and drier air settling in for the weekend.

Dewpoints may drop into the 50s next weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers developing, possibly a rumble of thunder. High 72-79.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a few more showers, mainly during the evening. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms, mainly north and west of Boston. High 76-83.

Tuesday night: A few lingering showers during the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 84-91.

Friday: Partly sunny, chance for some late-day showers or thunderstorms. High 82-89.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85.

Weekend Outlook: August 19-22, 2022

“When in drought, leave it out.” It’s an old phrase forecasters have used for quite a long time. What it means, is that when you’re in drought, rainfall will be tough to come by, so leave it out of the forecast. We found that out a few days ago when all of the models were forecasting a decent amount of rain for this area and we got little to none. Well, we’re not looking at much, if any, rainfall this weekend either.

Drought conditions continue to worse, and little relief is in sight. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Low pressure finally pulls away tonight and then skies start to clear out. High pressure builds in for Friday and into the weekend with dry and very warm conditions. As the high moves off to the east, humidity levels will creep up for Saturday and Sunday. Some clouds are expected on Saturday as a weak low pressure system passes well to the south. Clouds will stream back in on Monday as another frontal system moves in from the west. It could produce a few showers later Monday, but we wouldn’t count on it.

Little to no rainfall is expected across the region through late Monday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 59-66.

Friday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 84-91. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 85-92. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-10 knots, seas 1-3 feet.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Sunday: Partly sunny and humid. High 84-91. Offshore: Southeast winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Sunday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84. Offshore: East to southeast winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Weekly Outlook: August 15-21, 2022

There’s a chance for some beneficial rainfall this week to help put a dent in the drought. Unfortunately, that chance is a lot smaller than it looked a few days ago.

High pressure will slide offshore today, allowing for another in a string of rather nice days across the region with mild temperatures and low humidity. A low pressure system will be starting to take shape off the Mid-Atlantic coast while and upper-level low also sets up residence across the Northeast. The low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will slowly rotate around the upper-level low over the next few days, passing south and east of New England. How close it gets will determine how much, if any, rainfall we get. Over the past few days, the models have been all over the place, with solutions ranging from extreme amounts of rain that would likely lead to flooding, to virtually no rain at all across the region, to everything in between. There’s still plenty of uncertainty, but we’re leaning toward the drier side of things for now, especially given the ongoing drought. We do think there will be some showers at times between late Tuesday and early Thursday morning, favoring eastern portions of the region, but we don’t think they’ll be that heavy. At this point though, every little bit helps.

Most (but not all) of the models are forecasting the bulk of the rain to stay offshore with the mid-week system. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

By the end of the week, the low pressure both at the surface and aloft move out, replaced with high pressure, so a return to very warm and humid conditions is expected, but just a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. The next system will begin to approach from the west on Sunday, though the timing of this system is uncertain as well. Some models bring it in with showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, others hold it off until Monday. We should have a little better idea of the timing by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures could get near or above 90 again on Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.

Monday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a few showers across Cape Cod and the Islands. Low 56-63.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 75-82.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers across eastern Massachusetts and the New Hampshire Seacoast. Low 58-65.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with a few showers possible, especially across eastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, breezy. High 71-78.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 82-89.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 84-91.

Sunday: Partly sunny with a chance for showers. High 79-86.

Weekend Outlook: August 12-15, 2022

We got rid of the heat a couple of days ago, the humidity will follow soon.

A cold front will approach the region tonight, with just a couple of showers accompanying the front when it moves through early Friday. After that, high pressure builds in for the weekend with temperatures at or below normal, and significantly lower humidity levels. An upper-level disturbance will move through on Saturday which may trigger a stray shower or two, but most of us will remain dry. Sunday looks like the best day of the week bunch with warm and dry conditions and a good amount of sunshine.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s on Saturday, which is roughly below normal for mid-August. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday is the transition day. Many of the models are showing the potential for some significant rainfall during the early to middle part of next week with an offshore low pressure system. Given recent trends and the ongoing drought, we are obviously skeptical that this will happen, but the models are in decent agreement for now. Assuming this trend continues, we’ll see clouds move in on Monday, with some showers possible by late in the day. We’ll obviously have more details and more confidence in what will happen when we publish our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Some of the models show the potential for significant rainfall early next week. We’re highly skeptical that it will happen. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, some patchy fog is possible, especially near the coast. Low 60-67.

Friday: A few lingering showers early, otherwise clouds and some sunshine, not as humid. High 75-82.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 73-80.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 76-83.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers may develop by late in the day. High 76-83.

Weekly Outlook: August 8-14, 2022

The heat and humidity continue to start the week, but relief is on the way.

High pressure remains in place off the East Coast, which means heat and humidity continue into Tuesday. Temperatures likely top 90 for many areas both days, with very humid conditions likely. There is the possibility of a little relief for the coast of Maine, New Hampshire Seacoast, and possibly northeastern Massachusetts. Some models show the potential for a backdoor cold front to drop down into these areas later today and into tonight, bringing some cooler air in. The front likely doesn’t make it past Cape Ann, and should start to retreat northward before daybreak on Tuesday, but a few hours of relief are possible.

A backdoor cold front may drop temperatures into the 60s along the coast of Maine, New Hampshire and extreme northeastern Massachusetts this evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll see some pop-up showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon, but they’ll probably be a bit more widespread on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region. That front will stall out near or just south of the region for Wednesday into Thursday, allowing cooler air to finally move in, but it will likely remain on the humid side. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing in some showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. This big question is, where does the front stall out? If it’s near the South Coast, as most of the models show, then we could see some beneficial rainfall finally fall, especially south of the Mass Pike. If it stalls out offshore, then the beneficial rain may be confined to the South Coast. Recent history suggests that the latter scenario is more likely, despite the majority of the models forecasting the former, so even though our forecast is calling for showers and thunderstorms, we’re not expecting either day to be a washout.

Some beneficial rain is possible this week, but how much and where the heaviest rain falls is still up for debate. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The end of the week and the weekend is even trickier. Some models are showing the potential for low pressure to develop off the Mid-Atlantic or Carolina coast and head northward or northeastward, potentially having some impact here. Given the time of year, and the fact that the water off the East Coast is fairly warm, we wouldn’t be shocked if the National Hurricane Center tries to slap a name on this system if it develops, whether it truly is tropical or not. Whether the system is tropical or not (if it even develops) it appears as though we could be in a period of cool and wet weather, or the models could completely change their tune tomorrow and bring the heat and humidity back. They’ve been pretty unreliable beyond 3 days or so, so at this point, we’re going to lean toward a dry forecast, because as the old saying goes “when it drought, leave it out”. That’s why we do a Weekend Outlook on Thursday afternoons, because we’ll be 3 days closer to the weekend and should have a better idea of what is going on.

Several members of the GFS Ensemble show the potential for low pressure off the East Coast next Saturday, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Speaking of the tropics, it appears as though the Atlantic is starting to awaken, right on time. It’s been 5 weeks since we had “Tropical Storm Colin” (which was really just a big thunderstorm near the Carolina coast, but we digress), and June/July are usually fairly quiet. Activity usually starts to ramp up in August, with the peak of the season coming around September 10. Tropical waves have been rolling off the coast of Africa every few days for the past few weeks, but none of them have amounted to much, as Saharan dust has been inhibiting the thunderstorm development. That appears to be changing. A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday, and even though it is disorganized right now, conditions will be favorable for development over the next few days. As it moves across the Atlantic, it could become a tropical depression toward the middle of this week. If it does develop, chances are that it probably wouldn’t be a strong storm, and it may never be a threat to land. No matter what, we’ll be paying attention and following closely.

We’re keeping our eyes on a system in the eastern Atlantic. Image provided by HurricaneIntel.com

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 90-97.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 72-79, possibly cooler along the coast from Cape Ann northward.

Tuesday: Some morning sun, then increasing clouds with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 91-98.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and storms taper off in the evening. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds and much cooler with more showers possible during the afternoon and at night. High 76-83.

Thursday: Clouds and some sunny breaks with more showers possible, especially in the morning. High 75-82.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 73-80.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82.

Weekend Outlook: August 5-8, 2022

Heat and humidity are here, and there’s not going away for a while.

A Bermuda high pressure area will remain anchored off the East Coast for the next several days. It will continue to pump hot and humid air into the region. There will be some relief at times, but overall, we’ll stay hot and humid through at least Monday. A cold front will try to approach on Friday, and it will likely produce some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. This will not only provide relief, but also help with our worsening drought. Unfortunately, we need a lot more rain, and this won’t do the trick. That front will essentially dissipate before moving through, so the heat will continue. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up each afternoon this weekend, but they’ll be widely scattered, so most of us may not see one. Another front approaches on Monday, and this one may have a little more “oomph” to it. It may produce more showers and thunderstorms late in the day, but it likely doesn’t move through until Tuesday.

Friday’s thunderstorms could drop heavy downpours in spots, but coverage could be spotty. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 69-76.

Friday: Early sun, then increasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 89-96, cooler right at the coast. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers taper off in the evening. Low 67-74.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 69-76.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 89-96, cooler right at the coast. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-20 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 69-76.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 86-93. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Weekly Outlook: August 1-7, 2022

The final month of meteorological summer begins the way the last one ended – with more warm weather.

We’re actually starting the week off with some clouds, and possibly a few showers near the South Coast as a weak disturbance passes south of the region this morning. However, skies should clear out during the afternoon, with a warm and humid afternoon expected. Tuesday looks even warmer and more humid, but with a weak trough of low pressure moving through, we may see a few showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Wednesday looks to be another hot day, but it may not be quite as humid. Thursday certainly looks like the hottest day of this stretch, with some of the models are showing the potential for parts of the region to reach 100 degrees again on Thursday. We’re not quite sure it’ll be that hot, but some upper 90s are certainly plausible.

Rainfall is well below normal across the region since the start of April. The little rain we’ll get today and Tuesday won’t help much. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Friday is the uncertain day of the week. We’ll have a cold front crossing the region, likely producing some showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be determined by how quickly the front moves in, and how much cloudcover there is. The potential is there for much of the region to top 90 once again with muggy conditions. The next question is, how far south does the front get before stalling out. This will determine when we clear out on Saturday or the clouds linger along with the chance for more showers. Either way, temperatures should be cooler. High pressure should build in for Sunday with dry and seasonably warm conditions.

Friday could end up as another hot day across the region, but not all of the models agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers near the South Coast and across Cape Cod and the Islands. High 82-89.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 85-92.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Wednesday: Sunshine. Lots of sunshine. High 85-92.

Thursday: More sunshine. High 92-99, a little cooler near the South Coast.

Friday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and at night. High 86-93.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, lingering showers possible in the morning. High 79-86.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 85-92.