Weekend Outlook: January 8-14, 2024

The first snowstorm of the season has pulled away, but we’re already looking ahead to two more potent storm systems later this week.

More snow than expected in the Merrimack Valley, otherwise, the storm behaved pretty much as expected. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

High pressure builds in today with dry and rather chilly conditions, thanks to the fresh snowcover. Tuesday starts off dry as well, but a strong storm system will head toward the Midwest, spreading clouds in. Temperatures will still be chilly, so when the precipitation moves in late in the day, it may start as snow or a wintry mix across the interior, with some accumulation possible. However, it won’t last too long. As the systems gets all wound up, strong southerly winds both at the surface and especially aloft will bring much warmer air into the region, changing everything to rain. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph are possible inland with the storm, but along the coast, we could be looking at sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts upwards of 50-60 mph or higher. This could lead to trees and power lines coming down with power outages a significant concern. Tides will be astronomically low, so the risk for coastal flooding is fairly low as well. The biggest problem aside from the winds will be heavy rain. Many areas could pick up 1-2 inches of rain or more. While this could lead to areas of flooding on its own, combine that with significant melting of the snow on the ground, and you’ve got a recipe for widespread flooding. We’ll see if that materializes over the next couple of days.

Strong southerly winds are expected across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Rain ends early Wednesday, followed by windy and colder conditions during the day as the system moves across southeastern Canada. High pressure builds in for Thursday with diminishing winds. By Friday, another potent system moves into the Great Lakes, but things are a little more uncertain with this one. We could see a secondary low pressure system develop across the Mid-Atlantic states and head towards southern New England. If this does develop, then a colder scenario with at least some snow across the interior becomes more likely for Friday night into Saturday. If it doesn’t, then we’ll likely be looking at more rain, which could worsen flooding across the area. Another weak system could move through late Sunday with some snow showers possible.

Will there be a secondary low on Saturday or not? Time will tell. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy during the morning. High 32-39.

Monday night: Clear skies, a few clouds move in late at night. Low 12-19.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly cloudy with rain developing late in the day from Boston southward, snow north and west. Winds start to pick up late in the day. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and very windy with everything becoming all rain, heavy at times. Low 31-38 during the evening, temperatures rise overnight.

Wednesday: Cloudy and windy with rain ending in the morning, skies start to clear out during the afternoon. High 50-57 early, temperatures start dropping in the afternoon.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, colder. High 38-45.

Friday: Morning sunshine followed by increasing afternoon clouds, rain developing at night, possibly starting as snow well inland. High 39-46.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and windy with rain ending in the morning, some clearing possible late in the day. High 50-57.

Sunday: Partly sunny, windy, colder, a few late-day snow showers possible. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: January 1-7, 2024

New year, new weather pattern? Well, sort of. We’ll still have above normal temperatures to start, but things could be changing significantly by next weekend.

Temperatures start the week above normal, but transition to near to below normal late in the week and next weekend. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

We start the week (and year) off with some clouds thanks to a weak system passing offshore, but we’ll start to clear out this afternoon. High pressure builds in for tonight and Tuesday with seasonably cool and dry conditions. Wednesday remains dry as well, but we’ll see clouds start to filter in by late in the day. As we head into Thursday is when things start to change. Low pressure passes offshore while a cold front moves in from the north and west. Neither system will be particularly potent, but they will both bring in some rain or snow showers- the offshore system to coastal areas, especially southeastern Massachusetts, and the cold front produces some scattered rain or snow showers across the region. High pressure builds in behind these systems with cooler conditions for Friday. Another front tries to drop down from the north on Saturday, but stalls out nearby with just some cloudcover accompanying it. This brings us to Sunday, and you may want to sit down for this part (if you’re not sitting already).

A coating of snow is possible in some spots on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Low pressure moving out of the Tennessee Valley will redevelop near the Mid-Atlantic coastline, while high pressure builds into southeastern Canada. The developing low pressure system should pass south of New England while strengthening. Obviously, this is a week away, and we don’t want to get too detailed at this point, but things can and likely will change between now and then. but the potential exists for our first significant snowstorm of the winter on Sunday. There’s lots to iron out, such as where (if?) the rain/snow line will be? Will there be strong winds? How much of an impact will this storm have along the coast? Where will the heaviest snow fall (Or will there be any heavy snow?) There are too many questions, right now, and it’s just too early to answer them. However, consider this an early warning that there could be an impactful storm next Sunday. We’ll obviously have a much more detailed look at this potential storm in our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

The models all show the potential for a storm on Sunday, but the details are still very much in question. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning clouds, then becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 33-40.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 20-27.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 33-40.

Tuesday night: Clear skies, some clouds start to move in late at night. Low 24-31.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 37-44.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, chance for a few rain or snow showers. High 36-43.

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy, cooler. High 32-39.

Saturday: Morning sun, then increasing afternoon clouds. High 34-41.

Sunday: Cloudy and becoming windy with snow or rain possible. High 31-38.

Weekly Outlook: December 25, 2023 – January 1, 2024

Did you get a new knit hat and mittens for Christmas or Hanukkah? Perhaps a new winter coat? Well, you won’t need them much, if at all, during most of the final week of 2023.

Areas of dense fog reduced visibility to under half a mile in spots to start Christmas Day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ve got some dense fog to start Christmas Day, but once it burns off this morning, skies will remain mostly cloudy for the balance of the day, but it will be on the mild side. The fog returns tonight, but Tuesday may see some sunny breaks develop once the fog burns off. Wednesday is where things start to get interesting. The low pressure system producing all sorts of nasty weather in the Plains and Upper Midwest will head into the Great Lakes, sending some showers in on Wednesday. At the same time, a second low pressure system will develop near the Carolina coast and head north-northeastward. This will bring some steadier rain in by late Wednesday, more likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the system pulls away. An upper-level low pressure will then move into the East Coast, and it may spawn a weak low at the surface on Friday, which could triggering a few rain or snow showers across the region. The upper-level low moves directly overhead on Saturday, resulting in some cooler conditions, plenty of clouds, and possible another snow shower or two. High pressure builds in with dry and cool conditions for New Year’s Eve. Another weak system may move in on New Year’s Day with some snow showers possible.

Some models show the potential for some heavy rainfall with the storm later Wednesday into Thursday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Christmas Day: Dense fog early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy, fog redevelops. Low 33-40.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine. High 46-53.

Tuesday night: Cloudy, chance for a shower or two late at night. Low 36-43.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a few showers, becoming a steady rain at night. High 47-54.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, rain ending in the morning. High 47-54.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, chance for a few rain or snow showers. High 41-48.

Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy, chance for a few flurries. High 35-42.

New Year’s Eve: A mix of sun and clouds. High 34-41.

New Year’s Day: Partly sunny, breezy, chance for a snow shower. High 36-43.

Weekly Outlook: December 18-25, 2023

Wet n Wild was the name of a water park in Orlando that closed many years ago, but it also could describe our weather today.

Wet n Wild may be gone from Orlando, but it’ll be an apt description of our weather today. Image provided by Tripadvisor.

Low pressure will move up the Hudson Valley today, producing rain, some of it heavy during the morning, but it will taper off during the afternoon, ending during the evening. Many places could see 1-3 inches of rain, resulting in flooding in some areas. Luckily, it’s been dry for the past couple of months after a very wet summer, so river levels have dropped quite a bit, and many of them can handle this amount of rain. Rain isn’t the only threat with this storm though. Strong southeast to south winds are likely today, which could result in tree and power line damage. The strong winds may also result in some coastal flooding along south-facing coastlines. The gusty south winds will also bring unseasonably mild air in, with temperatures approaching or topping 60 by midday. Once the system passes our latitude, winds will shift into the west and southwest this afternoon. They won’t be as strong as in the morning, but will be quite gusty, and will bring a quick end to the mild air.

Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible across much of the region today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The system pulls away Monday night with the rain ending and winds rapidly diminishing, but an upper-level low moves into the Northeast on Tuesday. This will bring in more clouds, with a few showers popping up, possibly mixed with a little wet snow. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday through Friday with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. We do have to keep an eye on an ocean storm well to our east. Some of the models try to drift it close enough to bring in some clouds towards Thursday or Friday, or possibly even some showers, but right now, we’re thinking that we’ll stay dry. A weak system may bring in some clouds and possibly some rain or snow showers on Saturday, then we should be dry and a little milder for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Looking like a Green Christmas with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Image provided by weathermodels.com

Monday: Rain, heavy at times during the morning, tapering off to showers in the afternoon, very windy, with gusts to 50 mph or higher, especially along the coast. High 56-63.

Monday night: Showers end in the evening, some clearing overnight, winds rapidly diminishing. Low 33-40.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few rain or snow showers, much cooler. High 41-48.

Tuesday night: Clearing. Low 24-31.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy at times. High 37-44.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy again. High 36-43.

Friday: Partly sunny, a bit breezy, especially early. High 33-40.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a few rain or snow showers. High 35-42.

Christmas Eve: Partly to mostly sunny. High 39-46.

Christmas Day: Partly sunny. High 42-49.

Weekly Outlook: December 11-17, 2023

Once we get past today, much of the week will be fairly quiet weatherwise. Today will not be quiet at all though.

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be common this morning and early afternoon, with some stronger gusts across southeastern Massachusetts. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A strong cold front moves through early this morning, with rain ending by midday as the front pushes offshore. Gusty winds west behind the front usher much cooler air into the region. After a mild start, temperatures will drop through the morning. They may level off a little towards midday, especially as the rain ends, then we’ll drop again by late afternoon and evening as skies clear out. High pressure builds in for Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Another cold front moves through on Wednesday, but it will be starved for moisture, so it will only generate a few clouds, and possibly a stray snowflake or two. High pressure returns for Thursday through the weekend. We’ll be rather chilly on Thursday as the high builds in, then temperatures slowly moderate. There is one potential fly in the ointment. Many of the models generate a pretty potent storm in the Gulf of Mexico toward the end of the week or the weekend, and try to have it start moving up the coast. However, the big high sitting in place will slow down that storm’s progress by acting as a roadblock. Some models don’t have the rain with the system ever get up here, so wait until Monday or Tuesday, and some have it move in as early as late Sunday. We’re leaning toward the drier scenario for now, but obviously should have a better idea when we publish our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

The next storm likely doesn’t impact us through at least the end of the weekend, if at all, but that’s not set in stone just yet. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Rain ending by midday, some late-day clearing is possible, windy. High 40-47 early, except warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, where temperatures drop during the morning, then hold steady in the lower to middle 40s for early afternoon.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear with diminishing winds. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 28-35.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 37-44.

Thursday: Sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 31-38.

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy again, milder. High 43-50.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 41-48.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 43-50.

Weekly Outlook: December 4-10, 2023

Some cooler weather is on the way over the next few days.

Tuesday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than today across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll start to dry out today, but plenty of clouds will remain in place, and there could be a stray shower as an upper-level disturbance crosses the Northeast. Tuesday will be a dry day but a little cooler as high pressure tries to build in. Things could get a little interesting Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure will pass well offshore, but an extension of it, called an inverted trough, may set up. Normally, trough of low pressure are oriented in a general north-south direction from low pressure to the north. In this case, it’ll be the opposite, south-north from low pressure well to the south, hence the “inverted” part. What this will serve to do is enhance some onshore winds, which will in turn generate some precipitation. With colder air settling in, that precipitation will likely fall as snow. Now, this isn’t a big snowstorm we’re talking about, but across eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and southern New Hampshire, we could see an inch or two in spots, especially across southeastern Massachusetts.

A little bit of snow seems likely for Tuesday night and Wednesday for parts of the region. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure builds back in for Thursday, which will likely be a rather chilly day. High pressure slides off to the east, allowing temperatures to moderate for Friday and Saturday. The next system approaches on Sunday, but there are timing issues to be worked out with this storm. Some rain is possible during the day, but for now, it looks like most of the rain will hold off until Sunday night and Monday. This is subject to change however as the models start to hone in on the eventual solution. It does look like Sunday could be quite a mild day ahead of the storm, but again, let’s not etch that in stone just yet, since it is 6 days away.

Temperatures could get well into the 50s on Sunday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, slight chance for a shower. High 45-52.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, cooler. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with some light snow or snow showers around. Low 24-31.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, light snow or snow showers ending. High 32-39.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 31-38.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 39-46.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 47-54.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild with scattered showers. High 51-58.

Weekly Outlook: November 27 – December 3, 2023

The week starts off rather mild, but cooler and drier weather is on the way.

Wind chills will be in the teens Wednesday morning when you head out the door Image provided by WeatherBell.

Low pressure heads into the Gulf of Maine this morning, allowing skies to quickly clear out, but winds will become gusty out of the northwest, ushering some cooler air into the region. High pressure builds in for the next several days, with Tuesday and Wednesday featuring cool and breezy conditions. With an upper-level trough of low pressure overhead, we’ll start these days with sunshine, but clouds will develop by midday, with a few pop-up snow or rain showers possible, but they’ll be few and far between. There could be some ocean-effect rain or snow showers across Cape Cod on Tuesday as well. By Thursday, temperatures will start to moderate as high pressure slides off to the east. Another weak storm system will move out of the Great Lakes on Friday, likely spreading some rain showers in late Friday into early Saturday. High pressure then builds in with cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. Clouds start to move back in late Sunday ahead of yet another storm system, but we’ll get into more detail on that one in our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

The models all show some rain Friday night, but disagree on the track of the storm, which will impact temperatures. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 48-55 this morning, temperatures may start to drop in the afternoon.

Monday night: Clear through the evening, a few clouds overnight. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few widely scattered sprinkles or flurries, breezy. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 32-39.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy, not as cool. High 41-48.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers likely late in the day and at night, breezy. High 48-55.

Saturday: Early showers, then becoming partly sunny, breezy. High 43-50.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40-47.

Weekly Outlook: November 20-26, 2023

Thanksgiving week has arrived, but before we get to the holiday we’ve got a complicated forecast.

Better find the winter gear, temperatures will drop into the teens in some places Tuesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The week starts off simple enough with high pressure bringing us sunshine and cool conditions. It’ll be breezy at times, making it feel even cooler, with wind chills in the 20s and lower 30s. Tuesday starts off chilly, but we’ll see clouds start to move in as low pressure heads towards the Great Lakes. A secondary area of low pressure will develop off of the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday evening, passing near or just south of the South Coast on Wednesday while the main low passes by to the north. They’ll combine to bring us a windy and wet day on Wednesday, also known as the busiest travel day of the year. However, the rain and wind isn’t the entire story. We’ve left out a big detail, one that many of you probably won’t like. The precipitation will move in towards midnight Tuesday night, and temperatures at that time will probably be close to freezing. That means that it will likely start as snow (or sleet), especially north and west of Boston. Once you get outside of I-495, there could even be some accumulation before the change to rain washes everything away. Once you get into the hills of Worcester County and the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire, there could be a few inches before the changeover. Yes folks, it’s that time of year, whether you like it or not, to use an overused phrase – “Winter is Coming.”

Most of the accumulating snow will be well north and west of Boston Tuesday night. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The rain tapers off Wednesday afternoon, but likely doesn’t completely end until evening, but then high pressure builds in with sunshine and cool temperatures again for Thanksgiving. So, if you’re traveling locally, you shouldn’t have any issues, but if you’re heading out to one of the high school football games make sure you dress appropriately, because it will be on the chilly side. Friday looks similar to Thanksgiving with dry and cool conditions once again, but the weekend isn’t looking as nice. Another system will likely move up the coast, and this one *should* be mostly rain, but the various forecast models don’t agree on much with this storm, including how strong it will be, the track it will take, or even whether it will impact us on Saturday or Sunday or not at all. We’ll take a deeper dive on that system when we publish our Weekend Outlook, which will be out on Wednesday this week instead of the usual Thursday.

The last 3 days worth of GFS forecast runs show how inconsistent the model has been with the forecast for next weekend. Images provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, a little breezy at times. High 34-41.

Monday night: Clear skies through the evening, some clouds start to move in after midnight. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and becoming windy snow developing around midnight north and west of Boston, changing to sleet and rain before daybreak, rain developing elsewhere. Low 30-37 during the evening, temperatures rise after midnight.

Wednesday: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times in the morning, tapering off to showers by early afternoon, ending in the evening. High 46-53, possibly a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

Thanksgiving: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 43-50.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 42-49.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, chance of rain. High 39-46.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, chance of rain. High 39-46.

Weekly Outlook: November 13-19, 2023

We’ve got an extended stretch of dry weather coming up and as a bonus, it’s going to turn milder too.

A few rain or snow showers are possible later today. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll start the week with some sunshine, but clouds move in this afternoon ahead of a weak disturbance. That system may produce a few rain or snow showers late this afternoon and evening, but they’ll be widely scattered and very light. Skies clear out behind that system as high pressure builds in, setting up a sunny but chilly day on Tuesday. There may be a few ocean-effect rain or snow showers across the Outer Cape, but the rest of us will stay dry. Wednesday and Thursday look dry as well with high pressure in control, but temperatures should start to moderate by Thursday as the high slides off to the east. Clouds return on Friday ahead of the next storm system. We’ll be fairly mild ahead of that storm, with some rain likely late Friday into early Saturday. Once that system moves offshore, high pressure returns with drier and cooler conditions again on Sunday.

Temperatures could top 60 in many areas on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Morning sunshine gives way to increasing afternoon clouds, a late-day rain or snow shower is possible. High 39-46.

Monday night: A rain or snow shower during the evening, some clearing after midnight. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, a rain or snow shower is possible across the Outer Cape. High 43-50.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 44-51.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 53-60.

Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy, rain possible late in the day, more likely at night, windy. High 56-63.

Saturday: Rain ending early, some clearing in the afternoon, breezy. High 52-59.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 44-51.

Weekly Outlook: November 6-12, 2023

The weather pattern will be fairly active for the first half of the week across the region.

Temperatures should get well into the 60s on Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’re starting the week off with a rather cool day today with high pressure in control, but we’ll have plenty of clouds ahead of an approaching low pressure system. A warm front moves through tonight, bringing some showers with it. Those showers end Tuesday morning, setting up a rather mild day, with temperatures likely topping 60 in many locations. As the low pressure system passes by to t north, it will drag a cold front through late in the day, possibly producing another shower or two. High pressure builds in behind that front with much cooler weather on Wednesday. However, we’ll have another low pressure system quickly approaching by late Wednesday. This system will bring in some light rain on Thursday, but if the rain moves in fast enough, some cold air will still be in place, so the rain may start as some freezing rain or sleet well north and west of Boston. Another system may quickly follow for Friday, but this one looks to be a bit farther to the south, so any rain would likely be confined to areas south of the Mass Pike. High pressure builds back in for the weekend.

If precipitation arrives early enough on Thursday, it may not start as rain across the interior. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 46-53.

Monday night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with showers developing. Low 41-48 during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.

Tuesday: Showers end early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and mild with another late-day shower possible. High 60-67.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, breezy, turning cooler. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 42-49.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly starting as some freezing rain or sleet from the hills of Worcester County into southern New Hampshire. High 43-50.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, more showers possible during the afternoon and evening, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 46-53.

Saturday: Any lingering showers end early, then a mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 47-54.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 41-48.