We’ve got some absolutely glorious weather coming up for the weekend.
It’s been very dry across the region over the past 3 months, and that won’t change this weekend. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
A large area of high pressure will sink southward over the next few days. With it right overhead tonight, we’ll have clear skies and light winds – the recipe for radiational cooling. It will be quite chilly tonight, with lows mainly in the 40s with upper 30s in the cold spots. A few patches of frost are possible in spots as well. After that, as the high continues to move southward we’ll see winds shift into the west and southwest, bringing warmer air in for the entire weekend with plenty of sunshine each day. Coastal areas may still a little cooler with afternoon seabreezes, but inland temperatures could top 80 during Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will be well above normal this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy and chilly. Low 39-46.
Quieter weather is on the way for the weekend around here, but the Atlantic is anything but quiet right now.
There are two active storms in the Atlantic, and a third one could form soon. Loop provided by NOAA.
A cold front will push offshore tonight, with the much-needed rain finally coming to an end. However, that front is going to stall out south of New England, so skies will only slowly start to clear out on Friday as high pressure builds in. Saturday looks to be a pretty nice day with sunshine and mild temperatures, however, another wave riding along that stalled out front will send some clouds back in by late in the day. While most of the rain associated with that wave will stay offshore, there is the chance that some showers could reach the South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. As that wave starts to pull away on Sunday skies will only slowly clear out. High pressure returns on Monday with more sunshine and mild temperatures.
Most of the models keep the rain near or off the South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, we have two named storms and a third that likely will be named in the next few days. We’ll start with Hurricane Gabrielle, which still has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. It is centered about 385 miles west of the Azores, moving toward the east at 31 mph. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Azores at this time. Gabrielle will cross the Azores tonight and early Friday, then will likely become extratropical and weaken over cooler waters as it approaches the coast of Portugal this weekend.
Radar from the Azores shows Hurricane Gabrielle approaching the islands. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.
A little closer to home is Tropical Storm Humberto, which now has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. It is centered about 465 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the northwest at 8 mph. Humberto is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Friday, and could become a pretty potent storm this weekend as it passes well north of the Greater Antilles. The current forecast shows that it should turn more toward the northwest and eventually north as it reaches the western edge of a ridge of high pressure, passing west of Bermuda early next week. However, Humberto’s future isn’t quite that simple. We’ll get into that a bit more later.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Humberto. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
The more immediate concern is with a tropical wave crossing Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos this afternoon. This system has been producing squally conditions across the northeastern Caribbean for the past day or two, and will continue to do so as it moves northwestward over the next few days. The system could consolidate into an area of low pressure tonight or Friday as it moves into the Bahamas. The storm may become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend, and if it does, it would be named Imelda. The future of this system is a lot murkier than the others. It will be traversing the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and upper-level conditions should be favorable, so the system could intensify pretty rapidly, but where it goes is still a giant question mark. Forecast models always struggle with systems that haven’t developed yet, and they already have a wide range of solutions for this system. Complicating that is the fact the Humberto will not be that far away, and there is the potential for the storms to interact with each other. This could alter the tracks of both storms,, making for even higher uncertainty that usual.
There is a considerable amount of uncertainty where the system goes once it gets past the Bahamas. Image provided by Polar Wx.
While the track will obviously dictate what effects this system would have on land, there are bigger concerns. A frontal system will stall out near the region, bringing some heavy rain into parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. With this system likely to be at least nearby for a couple of days to start the week, there is the potential for some very heavy rain across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. In fact, some models show the potential for as much as 5-10 inches (or more) of rain over the next week. While the region has been in a drought, that much rain at once will likely lead to widespread significant flooding. Parts of this region experienced devastating flooding just one year ago from Hurricane Helene, and still have not recovered. This would be a significant setback to those recovery efforts.
Most of the models show some significant rainfall for the Carolinas over the next week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Friday: Morning clouds give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 74-81.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.
Saturday: Morning sun, then clouds return in the afternoon. High 71-78, coolest along the coast.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly near the South Coast. Low 55-62.
Sunday: Any linger showers near the South Coast end early, otherwise plenty of clouds with some afternoon sun developing, especially north of the Mass Pike. High 73-80.
Summer officially ends at the Autumnal Equinox at 2:19 this afternoon, but summer-like weather will continue beyond that.
Astronomical Fall begins with the Autumnal Equinox at 2:19pm today. Image provided by EarthSky.org
High pressure remains in control for today and part of Tuesday, keeping us dry, as has been the case for much of the summer. After a cool weekend, temperatures will start to moderate a bit today, but Tuesday will be rather warm and somewhat humid, with many locations likely topping 80. Clouds will start to move in during the day as a frontal system approaches the region. This will bring in some showers and possibly some thunderstorms late in the day and at night. As the front slows down, a wave of low pressure will ride along it on Wednesday, bringing in some additional showers along with much cooler temperatures. We do need the rain, and some models show the potential for some very beneficial amounts. However, for the most part, they have overestimated rainfall with several recent systems, plus there’s an old adage that usually holds true when talking about rainfall forecasts during a drought – “When in Drought, Leave it Out”. So, even though Wednesday will be a cool and damp day, it’s likely not going to be the widespread heavy rain that we need.
Temperatures could top 80 in many areas on Tuesday. Image provided by weathermodels.com.
High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and early Thursday with some drier air, but it won’t last long. An upper-level low pressure system and its surface reflection over the Great Lakes will start to slowly move into southeastern Canada toward the end of the week. The models are all over the place with the timing and strength of this system, but it looks like a second period of rainfall is expected possibly starting as early as Thursday afternoon, continuing into Friday night or possibly Saturday. Temperatures on Friday could be tricky. Several models show the system sending a warm front across the region, so even though we’re expecting more showers, temperatures could get well into the 70s. Of course, if the front gets hung up south of New England, temperatures may stay stuck in the 60s. We’re leaning towards the warmer scenario for now, but it is far from a lock. The system pulls away on Saturday then high pressure builds back in with drier air for Sunday.
Many models show the potential for a decent amount of rain between our two systems this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 68-75.
Monday night: Clear skies during the evening, becoming partly cloudy overnight. Low 54-61.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds through midday, then clouds thicken up in the afternoon with some late-day showers and thunderstorms develop. High 76-83.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 58-65.
Wednesday: Cloudy and cooler with more showers. High 66-73.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening. Low 54-61.
Thursday: More clouds than sun, showers may redevelop in the afternoon. High 64-71.
Thursday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 55-62.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with additional showers, mainly in the morning. High 70-77.
Saturday: Morning clouds and a few showers across the Cape and Islands give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 70-77.
Astronomical Summer ends on Monday, and the final weekend of summer will feature quiet but cooler weather.
Drought conditions continue to worsen across the region. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Skies clear out tonight as low pressure pulls away from the region, setting us up for a rather nice day on Friday. A cold front will cross the region with just a few clouds accompanying it, but ahead of it temperatures will get well into the 70s, with 80s in some spots. High pressure builds in with much cooler conditions for Friday night and Saturday. Saturday night will be rather chilly, with some of the normally colder spots dropping into the 30s. As the high slides off to the east temperatures will slowly moderate for Sunday and Monday with sunshine continuing. Summer officially ends and Fall begins on Monday at 2:19pm with the Autumnal Equinox.
Sunday morning could be on the chilly side. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.
Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.
Friday night: Clear and cooler. Low 44-51, milder in urban areas and right along the coast.
Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 63-70.
Saturday night: Clear and chilly. Low 40-47, milder in urban areas and right along the coast
We’ve got a couple of very nice days coming up across the region.
Average high temperatures for mid-September are in the lower to middle 70s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
A weak cold front moves through this evening with little fanfare, then high pressure builds in with sunshine and cooler temperatures for Friday and Saturday. An upper-level disturbance moves through on Sunday with some showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Monday is a bit of a tricky forecast. Some models showed an upper-level low pressure area hanging around with more clouds and possibly some additional showers, but more recent trends have been for high pressure to build back in with drier weather.
The showers on Sunday will not make much of a difference for the ongoing drought. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Evening clouds, then becoming clear. Low 52-59.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 67-74.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 47-54.
Saturday: Morning sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 70-77.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 52-59.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with some showers likely in the afternoon. High 71-78.
Sunday night: Any showers end in the evening, clearing overnight. Low 52-59.
Even though the calendar says September it’s still astronomical summer, and it will feel like it for the next few days.
Dewpoints will be near or over 70 Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
After a strong of rather nice days changes are on the way. A warm front will cross the region tonight, possibly accompanied by a few showers before daybreak on Friday. Once the front lifts northward, we’ve got warm and humid weather on the way for much of Friday and Saturday, with temperatures getting into the 80s along the coast, and dewpoints creeping back into the 60s or even lower 70s. For the most part it will be mostly sunny on Friday after the clouds move out in the morning, with some patchy fog Friday night. During the day on Saturday we’ll see clouds start to move back in ahead of an approaching cold front. The trend in the models recently has been to slow down this front, so for now, it looks like we’ll stay dry for most of the day Saturday. Some showers and thunderstorms will start to move in towards evening from west to east, with showers likely during the overnight hours. Sunday’s forecast is a little uncertain at this point. The showers should end during the morning, but some models continue to slow down the front with the showers not ending until afternoon from Boston southward, and possibly not until Sunday evening near the South Coast and Cape Cod. This will have an impact on temperatures as well, since the longer it rains, the less chance temperatures will warm up in the afternoon. With the Patriots season opener kicking off in Foxborough at 1:00 PM, any rain could impact not only playing conditions to start the game, but also tailgating beforehand. The front should push offshore at night, with high pressure building in for Monday with cooler and drier weather.
Most of the models aren’t forecasting a lot of rain for the weekend, but every little bit helps to fight the drought. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Increasing clouds, chance for a few late-night showers. Low 58-65.
Friday: Morning clouds, maybe a shower, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and humid. High 78-85.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, a little patchy fog may develop. Low 62-69.
Saturday: A sunny start, then clouds move in during the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day well north and west of Boston, breezy. High 81-88, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 57-64, possibly a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.
Sunday: Showers gradually ending from northwest to southeast, some late-day sunny breaks develop well north and west of Boston. High 67-74.
Much of the Labor Day Weekend will feature dry but somewhat cool conditions.
Temperatures will be below normal this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Clouds will start to move in and thicken up tonight as a cold front heads out way from the Great Lakes. That front will bring us some showers and a few thunderstorms during the day on Friday. While we need the rain as drought conditions continue to expand across the region, this will not be a drought-buster. We’re only expecting scattered showers, with some places seeing little, if any, rain from them. There will be a few downpours as well, and don’t be surprised if one or two storms produce some gusty winds and small hail, but overall, this isn’t a big deal. Once the front moves offshore high pressure will build in for the rest of the Labor Day Weekend. However, we’ll also have an upper-level low pressure area moving into the Northeast. That means that we’ll see some clouds popping up each day during the late morning and afternoon hours, dissipating after sunset. These clouds will be most numerous on Saturday, fewer on Sunday, and even fewer on Monday.
Drought conditions are worsening across the region. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Thursday night: Increasing and thickening clouds. Low 56-63.
Friday: More clouds than sunshine with some showers and a few thunderstorms developing. High 70-77.
Friday night: Showers and storms ending in the evening, clearing after midnight. Low 48-55.
Saturday: Morning sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 68-75.
Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 49-56.
Sunday: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon. High 69-76.
Hurricane Erin will pass well offshore over the next 24 hours while we enjoy some rather nice weather for most of the upcoming weekend.
Average high temperatures in late August are around 80. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
High pressure will slowly build into the region this evening, allowing skies to gradually clear out tonight. With the high in control on Friday we’ll have lots of sunshine, with temperatures getting back close to where they should be in the latter half of August. It will remain breezy, especially during the morning, due to the gradient between the high building in and distant Hurricane Erin pulling away offshore (more on that in a moment). As the high moves off to the east on Saturday, southwest winds will usher warmer air in, with many areas away from the coast likely topping 80 degrees. We’ll see things start to change on Sunday as a cold front begins to slowly approach the region. Clouds will increase, and gusty southerly winds will develop, increasing humidity levels across the area. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front, but they should hold off until evening, so don’t cancel any outdoor plans for Sunday. The front will take its time moving through, with showers and thunderstorms expected for Sunday night into Monday. We’ll also be watching a small area of low pressure moving up the East Coast on Monday. While most of the models keep it far enough offshore to have little to no impact here, some bring it close enough to bring in a periods of steadier rain to Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts Monday afternoon and evening. We’re leaning towards it staying too far offshore to impact us, but we are keeping an eye on it just in case.
Low pressure should remain offshore on Monday, but that doesn’t mean we’ll stay dry. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Hurricane Erin was centered about 400 miles northwest of Bermuda as of early Thursday afternoon, moving off toward the northeast at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 100 mph. Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast as well as Bermuda. As Erin accelerates northeastward and steadily weakens conditions will improve across Bermuda and the East Coast, though rough seas and rip currents will still be a significant hazard into the weekend. With astronomically high tides, some minor coastal flooding is also still possible for the next day or two in parts of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Hurricane Erin remains a large and potent storm off the East Coast. Loop provided by NOAA.
There are two other tropical waves we’re keeping an eye on this afternoon, but neither is a significant threat to land at this time. A tropical wave is approaching the Leeward Islands this afternoon. It remains disorganized, but as it heads northwestward, conditions will become more favorable for development, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week as it turns northward out over the open Atlantic. It will bring squally conditions to the Leeward Islands as well as the Virgin Islands and possibly Puerto Rico over the next few days, but otherwise won’t be a threat to land areas, though it could threaten Bermuda by early next week. Another wave is in the central Atlantic, and shows some signs of organization. While conditions are favorable for some development right now, they will become more hostile by this weekend, which would effectively end any further chances for development.
Hurricane Erin is pulling away from the East Coast but there are other areas we’re watching in the Atlantic. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Thursday night: Skies clear out from northwest to southeast, still breezy across Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts, and Cape Cod. Low 51-58, a little milder on Cape Cod.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine, winds diminish by early afternoon. High 77-84, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 80-87, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
A good portion of the upcoming weekend should feature some very nice mid-summer weather. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin continues to gather strength in the central Atlantic.
Temperatures will average close to normal through the weekend despite some ups and downs. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
A cold front will slide offshore this evening, taking any remaining shower and thunderstorm activity with it. Behind it, high pressure builds in with sunshine, cooler temperatures and lower humidity for Friday. As the high moves off to the east, temperatures will start to creep back up on Saturday, but will be pretty close to where they should be in mid-August. Sunday looks to be another hot and humid day, though it won’t be anywhere near as oppressive as some days we had earlier in the summer. A cold front will be approaching the region though, and it may produce some showers and thunderstorms late in the day and into the evening. High pressure then builds back in with much cooler and drier air for Monday.
Tropical Storm Erin continues to slowly intensify in the central Atlantic. Loop provided by NOAA.
Out in the central Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Erin continues to slowly get its act together. As of 11am Thursday, Erin was centered about 890 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph. Conditions are becoming more favorable for Erin to intensify, as wind shear is limited at this time, the atmosphere ahead of Erin is more moist, and sea surface temperatures gradually increase as you head westward. Erin is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. As for the track, that’s fairly simple for now. A large ridge of high pressure remains in place to the north, so Erin should continue in a general west to west-northwest direction for the next few days, likely passing north of the Caribbean this weekend. It may be close enough that some of the outer bands from the storm will bring squally conditions to parts of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but a direct hit is unlikely at this time. Erin should continue to intensify this weekend, likely become a major hurricane.
Beyond this weekend, things become a little less clear. Erin will encounter a weakness in the ridge to the north, which should allow the storm to turn more toward the northwest and then north. However, when that turn occurs and how quickly it will make the turn are still very uncertain. Most of the models show the storm passing in between Bermuda and the East Coast, eventually turning northeastern and heading out into the Atlantic, but that is far from a lock at this point. The earlier the turn happens, the bigger the threat to Bermuda. The later the turn happens, the more likely that the storm could impact parts of the Bahamas. The storm will produce rough surf and increase the chances for riptides along the East Coast next week, but for now at least, that looks to be the only impact from the storm. That could change if the turn happens later, but we’ll worry about that if it happens.
Ensemble forecasts for the track of Erin. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.
There’s also a system we’re keeping an eye on in the Bay of Campeche. A cluster of thunderstorms has been slowing organizing over the past day or so, and as it heads northwestward, conditions are favorable for some development over the next day or so. The system doesn’t have a lot of time, as it will likely move inland somewhere close to the Texas/Mexico border late Friday or Friday night, but it could become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm before moving inland. Whether it develops of not, heavy rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding are possible in this region for the next few days.
We’re also keeping an eye on a developing system in the western Gulf of Mexico. Loop provided by NOAA.
Thursday night: Any lingering showers or thunderstorms end in the evening, becoming clear to partly cloudy overnight. Low 62-69.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, not as humid. High 76-83, coolest along the coast.
Friday night: Partly cloudy, some patchy fog may develop. Low 57-64.
Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 81-88, cooler near the coast.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 62-69.
Sunday: Morning sun, then increasing clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm, humid. High 85-92, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Sunday night: Any showers or thunderstorms end in the evening, becoming partly cloudy overnight. Low 59-66.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, cooler and less humid. High 72-79.
Remember how it rained nearly every weekend through the Spring? That won’t be the case this weekend.
It’s been quite dry across much of the area since June 1. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure will dominate our weather right through the weekend. The high, currently centered over southeastern Canada will slowly drop southward, settling off the East Coast this weekend. Not only will we stay dry through this time, but temperatures will trend upward, and by the end of the weekend, so will humidity levels. The smoke and haze that has plagued us for the past few days from Canadian wildfires will thin out and drift away, so we’ll have sunshine for most of the time as well (during the daylight hours).
Monday is looking like a hot and humid day across the region. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog in spots. Low 57-64.
Thursday: A cloudy start, gradually becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 54-61.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 78-85, a little cooler along the coast.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.
Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 79-86, a little cooler along the coast.
Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, a little more humid. High 85-92, a little cooler along the coast.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 62-69.
Monday: Mostly sunny, humid. High 88-95, a little cooler along the coast.
Storm HQ 