Hurricane Season in the Atlantic officially begins on June 1, and once again, the season got off to a very early start.

The 2022 season was a fairly normal season by the numbers, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, but the bulk of the activity occurred during a 10-week span between Labor Day and Veterans Day. Hurricane Ian made the most headlines, hitting the Fort Myers, Florida area as a strong Category 4 hurricane on September 28. Hurricane Fiona brought significant flooding to Puerto Rico, and then became the strongest to ever make landfall in Canada when it struck Nova Scotia as a poweful extratropical cyclone on September 24. Hurricane Nicole also made landfall near Vero Beach, Florida on November 10, but Ian and Nicole were the only systems to make landfall in the continental United States. This was a welcome change from 2021 when a total of 21 storms formed, 3rd most ever in a single season, and a total of eight of them made landfall in the United States. That includes 2 tropical storms that made landfall in New England that summer – Elsa and Henri. Both Elsa and Henri each made landfall near Westerly, Rhode Island about 6 weeks apart. This was just the 5th time since 1851 that two tropical systems made landfall in Southern New England or Long Island in the same year, and only the 2nd time (1961 being the other), that both storms were only tropical storm strength. (We’ll have more info on New England tropical systems a little later in this post).

Forecasts for the upcoming season are a bit more challenging than recent years. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are mostly above normal, which would tend to lead toward a more active year, but an El Nino is also developing in the Pacific, and that tends to suppress Atlantic tropical activity. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 25, and it calls for a 40 percent chance for a near normal season, a 30 percent chance for an above normal season, and a 30 percent chance for a below normal season. Many of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting a near normal season, due to the conflicting signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 1. Their initial forecast from April called for a slightly below average season, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Before last year’s near normal season, the previous 7 seasons had all featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.

Hurricane season got off to an extremely early start this year, though most people didn’t realize it. It turns out that system that developed off the East Coast back in the middle of January was actually a subtropical storm, according to a recent statement from the National Hurricane Center. We’re still awaiting the official report on this storm to see the details of it, but since it formed after January 1, it is technically Subtropical Storm One for the 2023 season, and the next one that forms will be Tropical Depression Two. If it reaches tropical storm strength, it will be Tropical Storm Arlene, since names are not designated on storms after the fact. Despite the early start, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.

The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the 1st one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.

Here in New England, we should always pay attention when a storm is nearing the Bahamas, as those are the ones that have the potential to impact us, and we are very overdue for a hurricane to head this way. Using data back to 1851, here are some stats that show how overdue we are:

• Since 1851, 39 storms of tropical storm strength of greater have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 4.4 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 11 years, between 1897 and 1908 and also between 1923 and 1934. In 2021, we had two tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region.
• Since 1851, 32 strong tropical storms (maximum sustained winds of 60 mph or more) have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 5.4 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 19 years, between 1897 and 1916. In 2021, we had two strong tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region.
• Since 1851, a hurricane has made landfall in New England or Long Island 18 times, an average of one every 9.6 years. The longest we’ve ever gone between hurricane landfalls is 38 years, between 1896 and 1934. It’s been 32 years since Bob, our 2nd longest drought on record.
• Since 1851, 8 hurricanes of Category 2 intensity or stronger have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 21.5 years. The longest we’ve gone between hits by storms of that intensity is 69 years, between 1869 and 1938. We’re at 32 years since Bob, the last one to do so.
• Since 1851, New England/Long Island has had 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) make landfall – an unnamed storm in October of 1869, the infamous 1938 Long Island Express, and Hurricane Carol in 1954. That’s an average of 1 every 57.3 years, and the longest time between 2 major hurricanes is 69 years (1869-1938). We’re at 68 years since Carol. There are also 3 documented storms from before 1851 – The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, the 1815 New England Hurricane, and the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. That’s it. That changes the numbers to 6 in 388 years, or one every 64.7 years, with a longest drought of 180 years.

We all saw what Sandy did back in 2012, and that was a minimal hurricane that eventually made landfall in southern New Jersey (technically as an extratropical storm). When (not if) the next big storm comes up the coast, much of this region will not be prepared for the storm or its aftermath.

The Atlantic is quiet right now, but even if something were to form off the East Coast in the next few weeks and head this way, the waters off of New England despite being warmer than normal, are still much too cold to sustain a tropical system, so we’d see something more like a typical nor’easter. Only two tropical storms have ever made landfall in the Northeast before the end of June. The first was an unnamed minimal tropical storm that crossed extreme eastern Long Island and went into southeastern Connecticut on May 30, 1908. The other was Tropical Storm Agnes, which made landfall near New York City on June 22, 1972, then caused devastating flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. In terms of hurricanes, the earliest one to ever make landfall up this way was Hurricane Belle, which slammed into Long Island with 90 mph winds on August 9, 1976. We did have Hurricane Arthur pass just offshore of Nantucket on July 4, 2014. While it did not make landfall, it made for a rather wet and cool holiday, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Statistically, the most likely time for a hurricane to hit New England is between the middle of August and late September. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.

As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source (hopefully you trust us), especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. If there’s reason to worry, we’ll let you know with plenty of advance warning. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared, as we’ve learned recently.

Remember all that talk not too long ago about how quiet hurricane season had been? Well, we now have four active systems in the Atlantic, one in the eastern Pacific, and two more in the western Pacific.

We’ll start off with Hurricane Fiona, as it is the strongest one of the four and also the biggest threat. As of 5pm EDT, Fiona was centered about 370 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving toward the north-northeast at 40 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 125 mph, making Fiona a high-end Category 3 storm. Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada. An upper-level trough across the eastern US will pull Fiona a bit more toward the north later today and tonight. Fiona is expected to steadily weaken and become extratropical as it moves over cooler waters, but this is both good and bad. It’s good because it will be a weaker storm, but it’s bad because the extratropical transition means that the wind field will spread out, bringing stronger winds to a much larger area. Fiona is expected to make landfall in eastern Nova Scotia early Saturday as an extratropical system with the equivalent strength of a Category 2 hurricane. While Atlantic Canada is no stranger to powerful extratropical storms from the Fall into the Spring, this one will be much stronger than most of those storms. Widespread wind damage is likely as well as storm surge flooding near the coastline. Freshwater flooding won’t be as much of a concern as the system will be moving too quickly to drop excessive rain in many locations. Across parts of Labrador and eastern Quebec, cold air on the backside of the storm will allow the rain to change to snow, with several inches of accumulation possible in spots.

Fiona has already left a trail of destruction in its wake, and will almost certainly have its name retired after the season ends. It crossed the Lesser Antilles a week ago, producing some wind damage and flooding across Guadeloupe and nearby islands. Heavy rain and strong winds buffeted the Virgin Islands next, especially across St. Croix, but Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic were the beneficiaries of Fiona’s full fury. Torrential rainfall led to widespread severe flooding, and wind gusts in excess of 115 mph resulted in widespread damage across the region. At one point, the entire island of Puerto Rico was without power. Many locations in this region are still trying to recover from Hurricane Maria back in 2017. After leaving the Great Antilles, Fiona brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the nearby southeastern Bahamas. Finally, Fiona passed just west of Bermuda late last night and early this morning. Although the core of the storm missed the island, there were still reports of wind gusts to 100 mph. Large swells from Fiona have been impacting the Eastern US for the past few days and will gradually subside through the weekend.

Next up is Tropical Storm Gaston. As of 5pm EDT, Gaston was centered about 70 miles north of Faial Island in the Central Azores, moving toward the south at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect of the islands of the Western and Central Azores. Gaston is expected to turn more toward the southwest, then west over the next day or two. This will bring the center of Gaston closer to or across parts of the Azores. Gusty winds and heavy rain that could produce flooding and mudslides are expected. Steady weakening is expected, and Gaston will likely become extratropical by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Hermine just formed late this afternoon in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. As of 5pm EDT, Hermine was centered about 290 miles northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the north-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Hermine’s forecast calls for a little strengthening tonight, then it’ll weaken as it moves back over cooler water, and it will likely dissipate before the weekend is over. However, it will bring some heavy rain to parts of the Canary Islands over the weekend, with rainfall totals of 2-4 inches and locally heavier possibly resulting in flooding in some spots.

The last storm in the Atlantic is Tropical Depression 9. As of 5pm EDT, TD9 was centered about 430 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. The short-term forecast for the depression is fairly simple. It should head more toward the west tonight and Saturday while steadily strengthening. Once it reaches Tropical Storm strength it will be named Ian. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands. The storm should pass south of Jamaica late Saturday or early Sunday, then turn more toward the northwest and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday as a strong tropical storm, or possibly a hurricane. It should approach western Cuba on Monday, likely as a hurricane. Heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge are expected across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, and to a lesser extent across Jamaica. After that, things get more complex.

A trough of low pressure will move into the eastern US, which should steer the system northward, and eventually northeastward. When that turn occurs is vital to the forecast. Once the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it should strengthen, and could become a major hurricane, so obviously, where it heads towards becomes an important question. As you can see from the image below, the various model ensemble members do not agree on where that turn happens. Some have it miss the trough and head more toward the northwest, while the majority have it move toward western Florida or the Florida Panhandle. Beyond that, some bring it inland into the Southeast, others have it cross Florida and then become a threat to the East Coast. Some even bring it into New England or Nova Scotia (which would be really bad), and many just head out to sea once back in the Atlantic. Obviously, this is something that we won’t have a better handle on for at least a few more days, but anyone from the Central Gulf to the East Coast should keep an eye on this storm’s progress.

There are a few other active systems in the Pacific as well. Tropical Storm Newton is expected to pull away from Socorro Island off of the Mexican coastline tonight and head out into the open waters of the eastern Pacific where it should weaken and dissipate over the next several days. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Talas is expected to dissipate just off the south coast of Japan on Saturday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Noru will become an increasing threat to the Philippines over the next few days. As of Friday evening, Noru was centered about 580 miles east-northwest of Manila, moving toward the west-southwest a 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph. The forecast calls for steady strengthening, and Noru is expected to cross Luzon early Sunday as a typhoon. It should re-emerge in the South China Sea later in the day, then head westward, gathering strength early next week. It could make landfall in Vietnam by mid-week as a typhoon.

We’ll provide an update on TD9 in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning, then likely do a full blog post about it later in the day on Monday.

There was very little tropical activity around the world during July and August, but as the calendar has flipped to September and we approach the peak of Hurricane Season (especially in the Atlantic), several storms have developed.

The storm that is the biggest threat to land is actually in the Western Pacific Ocean. Typhoon Hinnamnor is centered about 210 miles west-northwest of Okinawa, Japan, moving toward the north at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph. A little additional strengthening is possible today before a weakening trend begins. The forecast for Hinnamnor is for gradual weakening as it moves northeastward over the next 24 hours. The center will pass close to or across southeastern portions of South Korea on Monday as a typhoon, with top winds still in the 100-110 mph range. Storm surge will likely be confined to just a small portion of the South Korean coastline, but that area includes the city of Busan, the 2nd most populous city in South Korea. Busan is also the 6th busiest port in the world. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across much of the Korean Peninsula, but also could impact parts of eastern China (near Shanghai) today, and parts of Japan over the next few days.

In the Atlantic, after going nearly two months without a named system, we now have twostorms to track. Tropical Storm Earl developed Saturday night east of the Lesser Antilles. As of midday Sunday, Earl was centered about 85 miles north-northeast of St. Thomas, USVI, moving toward the northwest at 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Earl is bringing some gusty winds and heavy downpours to parts of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern Leeward Islands today and will continue to do so into Monday as it drifts toward the northwest and eventually north. The forecast for Earl calls for a turn more toward the north on Monday, with gradual strengthening expected. Earl is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday and could become a rather potent storm by mid-to-late week. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Earl to eventually turn more toward the northeast, heading out over open water southeast of Bermuda. However, as is usually the case with tropical systems, this is hardly a lock. An upper-level trough of low pressure moving into the central Atlantic is expected to help turn Earl toward the northeast and out to sea. If that trough moves a little faster, Earl may not make the northeast turn, at which point, the track becomes highly uncertain. Another trough of low pressure will be moving toward the East Coast while a ridge of high pressure settles in across the western Atlantic. This could increase the threat to Bermuda before the next trough moves in and kicks Earl out to sea. If you’re wondering about whether Earl could threat the East Coast, it is highly unlikely at this point, but the odds are not zero. A few members of the various Ensemble forecasts do show a significantly more westward track to Earl, but the vast majority still show a track out to sea (or near Bermuda then out to sea).

Out in the North Atlantic, Hurricane Danielle, the first hurricane of the season in the Atlantic, is strengthening this afternoon. As of midday, Danielle had maximum sustained winds near 80 mph and was centered nearly 1000 miles west of the Azores. Danielle is nearly stationary right now, but it is expected to start moving toward the northeast and then east over the next few days. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Monday, but after that it will start moving over cooler water, and a gradual weakening trend will begin. Danielle is expected to become extratropical later this week, and could bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the British Isles as a strong extratropical system toward the end of the week.

Finally, Tropical Depression 12-E has developed off the southwest coast of Mexico. As of midday, it was centered about 225 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, moving toward the west at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. The forecast calls for steady strengthening, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and a hurricane early this week. A turn more toward the northwest is expected early this week, and the system could threaten parts of the Baja Peninsula toward the latter half of the week. By the end of the week, the system, or what’s left of it, could bring some heavy rainfall into parts of the Southwest and Southern California, enhancing what has already been a very active monsoon season.

With the climatological peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic about a week away, and the peak of the Eastern Pacific season encompassing most of September, additional storms are likely to form over the next few weeks.