We all know that Hollywood ran out of original ideas years ago, which is one of the main reasons that a lot of people don’t go to the movies much anymore. However, the past 2 weeks (and the upcoming week) are an epic disaster straight out of the Hollywood of yesteryear, except worse.

If this were the plot of a movie, would you go see it?

A tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico blows up to a Category 4 hurricane and makes landfall, creating widespread damage along the Texas coast. Then, we stall the storm, have it sit there for days, and drop upwards of 4 feet of rain on Texas, resulting in some of the worst flooding ever seen. Just to make it worse, we’ll have the flooding centered around Houston, the 4th largest city in the nation. Then, after sitting there for a few days, we’ll have it go back into the Gulf of Mexico, strengthen a little, and head northward, making landfall again in Louisiana, dumping 1-3 feet of rain on that state and nearby parts of Texas that just barely missed out on the first batch. As that storm moves inland and finally dissipates, we’ll have another storm form way out in the Atlantic. That storm will grow into a beast – one of the strongest storms ever observed in the Atlantic. It head towards the islands in the Caribbean, and lay waste to a few of them, destroying pretty much everything in its path as it shatters records for strength and intensity. Then, after crossing the Bahamas, it’ll take aim at Florida, going on a near-worst-case scenario track for the entire state. It’ll make landfall in southern Florida as a Category 4 or 5 storm, and head due north, bringing hurricane conditions to pretty much the entire state, except maybe the Panhandle. Not only that, but we’ll have the worst conditions, the ones in the eyewall, pass right over heavily-populated Miami and Fort Lauderdale. While everyone is paying attention to the massive storm heading for Florida, we’ll have not one, but TWO more hurricanes develop, one in the Atlantic and another one in the Gulf. For the one in the Atlantic, we’ll have it blow up into a Category 4 storm, and then head right towards the same islands that just got wiped out 2 days earlier by the first storm. For the one in the Gulf, we’ll have it head towards Mexico. But wait, that’s not enough. While the folks in Mexico are preparing for a hurricane, we’ll have an 8.2 magnitude earthquake nearby, the strongest quake to impact Mexico in 100 years.

That’s the basic script, except it’s not a Hollywood creation, it’s the real thing. So, let’s get right to the details.

As of early Friday afternoon, Hurricane Irma was a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 155 mph. It was centered about 380 miles southeast of Miami, moving towards the west at 14 mph. Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for most of central and southern Florida, as well as the Bahamas and Cuba, with Hurricane Watches for much of northern Florida. Don’t let the fact that Irma has weakened to a Category 4 fool you. This is still a powerful storm, and its intensity will fluctuate for the next 24-36 hours. It could very easily regain Category 5 status, and will likely make landfall in Florida as a Category 4 or 5 storm.

Irma will continue on a general west-northwest track today, as it moves around the southern edge of a ridge of high pressure. At some point in the next day or so, it’ll reach the southwestern edge of that ridge and make a sharp right turn. Exactly when that turn occurs is key to landfall. Right now, it looks it’ll move across the Upper or Middle Keys, and then make landfall in extreme southwestern Florida Sunday morning. The good news is that this is where the Everglades are, and very few people live there. The bad news is that since it’s mostly the Everglades, the storm surge may penetrate very far inland. That’s not the end of the bad news though. The current track brings the storm virtually due northward, which means that for Sunday into early Monday, the storm will head right up the middle of Florida. Yes it’ll be weakening, but should maintain hurricane strength until it gets close to the Florida/Georgia border. That means, hurricane conditions for much of the state, except possibly the Panhandle. Wait, it gets worse. The worst conditions will be in the eyewall, just to the right of the center. With the storm heading northward, that means east of the center. Where will that eyewall be Sunday morning? Right over downtown Miami and Fort Lauderdale. When Hurricane Andrew hit the region 25 years ago, it was a tiny storm. Even though it wiped out communities just south of Miami, downtown itself was largely spared, and Fort Lauderdale fared even better. That will not likely be the case this time, as Irma is considerably larger. Even places farther to the north, such as Orlando, may see wind gusts upwards of 90 mph. The theme park itself has been closed for a while now, but much of central Florida will get to experience “Wet n’ Wild” once again. While flooding won’t be on the scale of Harvey, rainfall totals of 8-16 inches and locally heavier are possible across Florida, which will lead to some flooding problems.

While all attention has been focused on Irma, Hurricane Jose has blown up into a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic. As of early Friday afternoon, Jose was centered a little more than 380 miles east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph, and some fluctuations in intensity are expected for the next day or two. Jose should continue towards the west-northwest for another day or so before turning more towards the northwest. Unfortunately, that track will bring Jose very close to the islands in the northern Leeward Islands. These are the same islands that Irma just devastated a couple of days ago. Hurricane Watches have been posted for many of these islands, with Tropical Storm Watches farther south and west. The Tropical Storm Watches do not indicate that weakening is expected. They just show that those islands should be far enough from the center that they will “only” receive tropical storm conditions, and not hurricane conditions. Once Jose gets past the islands, things get a little more murky. Jose should head into the open Atlantic and start to weaken, but it will also slow down, and perhaps stall as high pressure builds in to its north. By the middle of next week, there is plenty of disagreement among the models as to where Jose will go. Some models have the high pressure area retreating, which will allow Jose to head back into the open Atlantic. Others have the high pressure area strengthening, which would send Jose westward, towards the Bahamas and possibly the East Coast. It is WAY too early to figure out which solution is more plausible at this point. So, we may be dealing with Jose at some point again next week.

Wait, don’t stop reading now! We’ve got even more to talk about! In the Gulf of Mexico we have Hurricane Katia! As of midday Friday, Katia was centered about 125 miles north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, drifting toward the west-southwest at 5 mph. Katia is a Category 2 Hurricane, with top winds near 100 mph. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of the Mexican coastline. Katia should make landfall tonight, then rapidly weaken once moving inland, as it encounters the mountainous terrain of Mexico. While this will keep wind damage confined to coastal areas, it makes the threat of flooding and mudslides even worse. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches and locally heavier are likely in this area over the next few days.

Oh, and if that’s not enough, another tropical wave will emerge from the coast of Africa this weekend. Several computer models show the potential for that system to develop as it moves across the Atlantic next week. So, the suddenly active Hurricane Season of 2017 will likely roll on well into September.

While Hurricane Irma is rightfully grabbing all the attention, there are two other tropical storms that could be threats to land in the coming days.

After moving across Barbuda, St. Barts, and St. Martin overnight, the eye of Hurricane Irma was moving across the British Virgin Islands  Wednesday afternoon. When Irma moved across Barbuda last night it produced sustained winds of 118 mph with a gust to 155 mph, before the anemometer failed at an automated observing station. Sustained winds of 106 mph with a gust to 131 mph were reported at Buck Island in the US Virgin Islands this afternoon, while a wind gust to 113 mph was also reported in Estate Bovoni on St. Thomas in the US Virgin Islands. Irma should continue moving west-northwestward today and tonight, with the eye passing just north of St. John and St. Thomas in the US Virgin Islands. While this places these islands in the southern eyewall, believe it or not, things could actually be worse. The strongest winds in the storm have been observed in the northern eyewall, which will remain over open water. Maximum sustained winds in this part of the storm are estimated to be near 185 mph, making Irma one of the strongest storms ever in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, if you exclude the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. it is the highest winds in any hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. Likewise, reconnaissance aircraft measured a pressure of 914 millibars in Irma’s center early Wednesday morning. Excluding the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea again, this is the lowest pressure measured in a tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean. The old record was 915 millibars in Hurricane Isabel in 2003. The record low for the Atlantic Basin is 882 millibars set during Hurricane Wilma in 2005 in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Irma’s southern eyewall will likely move across northern Puerto Rico, possibly including the San Juan area. Hurricane strength winds were already moving into Culebra early Wednesday afternoon, with sustained winds to 73 mph and gusts as high as 96 mph reported. In addition to the wind, heavy rain is expected across the Virgin Islands and northern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches with locally heavier amounts, will likely produce flooding in some areas. Lesser rainfall totals are expected across St. Croix as well as southern Puerto Rico.

Once Irma moves away from Puerto Rico, the obvious question becomes “Where will it go next?” Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as the storm will likely pass just north of those nations, but close enough to bring hurricane conditions to coastal locations. Hurricane Warnings are also in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. Right now, Irma is expected to pass right across some of these islands as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane later Thursday into Friday. Beyond that, there is still a lot of uncertainty.

Track forecasts from the various members of the ECMWF Ensemble. Image provided by the University at Albany.

Track forecasts from the various members of the GFS Ensemble. Image provided by the University at Albany.

Track forecasts from the various members of the Canadian Ensemble. Image provided by the University at Albany.

Hurricane Watches have been posted for eastern Cuba as well as the Central Bahamas. Irma could be impacting either location by later on Friday. For the past few days, many of the forecast models showed the potential for Irma to head west-northwestward, possibly impacting or even making landfall in northern Cuba before making a sharp right turn and heading towards southern Florida. However, since last night, many of these models have started to shift a bit, now showing that turn coming earlier, with Irma possibly making landfall in south Florida this weekend, or possibly turning even earlier, and heading northward towards the coast of Georgia or the Carolinas. Even places farther up the coast might not be out of the woods yet either. At this point, it’s still too early to tell which scenario will be more plausible. Anyone with interests from North Carolina to Florida and the Bahamas should pay very close attention to Irma, and be prepared to take action on short notice.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Jose is nearing hurricane strength in the Central Atlantic Ocean. As of midday Wednesday, Jose was centered about 1135 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving towards the west-northwest at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, and Jose will likely strengthen into a hurricane later today. Jose is expected to turn more towards the northwest while strengthening over the next few days. While the storm is currently expected to pass north and east of the Leeward Islands, it wouldn’t take much of a shift in the track to bring the storm closer to areas that got hammered by Irma last night. That’s just what they need, right? Start the cleanup from one of the worst storms in history, then have another hurricane come by 4 days later? Look at the bright side – there wouldn’t be much left to damage.

We also have Tropical Storm Katia in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At midday Wednesday, Katia was centered about 175 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico, drifting east-southeastward at 5 mph. Katia has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Katia should start to drift more towards the south and southwest while strengthening over the next day or two. Katia could become a hurricane before making landfall in Mexico towards the end of the week. Katia may produce heavy rain across parts of Mexico, with rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches possible leading to flooding and mudslides across the area.  Luckily, these rains will stay well south of the areas that Harvey flooded out a few weeks ago.

A week ago, Tropical Storm Harvey produced wind gusts as high as 44 mph in the Windward Islands. It moved into the eastern Caribbean and fell apart a few days later, degenerating into a tropical wave. Four days after that,  Harvey has regenerated into a tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche. Now, it’s setting it sights on Texas.

As of early Thursday morning, Tropical Storm Harvey was centered about 410 miles southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph. Harvey was moving toward the northwest at 7 mph. A hurricane watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from Port Mansfield, to San Luis Pass. Tropical Storm Watches have also been issued from Port Mansfield southward to Boca de Catan, Mexico, and from San Luis Pass northward to High Island, Texas. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island.

Current indications are that Harvey should continue to head northwestward while strengthening over the next day or two. Harvey should be approaching the Lower or Middle Texas coast on Friday. With warm water and low wind shear, there is a chance that Harvey could rapidly intensify on Thursday, and should become a hurricane before landfall, possibly a strong hurricane.

Once Harvey makes landfall, it will start to slow down and its movement could become erratic as there will be little in the way of upper-level wind flow to steer the storm. Many models are now showing a turn towards the west or southwest for a day or two, others show the storm nearly stationary once inland, and still others have the storm drift off towards the east or northeast after landfall. There’s also the chance that Harvey stalls before moving inland. The exact track that Harvey takes will have a huge impact on the region for obvious reasons.

While wind and storm surge are obviously threats to Texas, especially along the coast near where Harvey makes landfall, by far, the bigger threat at this point is flooding from heavy rainfall. The slow movement once inland means that heavy rain will continue across portions of the region for several days, leading to widespread, severe flooding, especially across parts of south and southeast Texas.

Some models, such as the one above, are showing the possibility for 10-20 or more inches of rain across parts of the area over the next week. Some models are showing extreme totals of 30-40 or more inches during the same time frame. While these numbers seem unbelievable, they wouldn’t be unprecedented. Hurricanes that move out of the Gulf of Mexico are usually loaded with tropical moisture and if they are moving slow enough, can produce several months worth of rainfall in a matter of days. In 1978, Tropical Storm Amelia dropped 48 inches of rain on Medina, Texas. This is the most rainfall recorded from a single storm anywhere in the United States. Just one year later, Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. In Alvin, Texas, just west of Houston, a total of 42 inches of rain was recorded in just 24 hours. This set a new record for 24-hour rainfall in the contiguous United States. More recently, in 2001, Tropical Storm Allison produced 20-40 inches of rain on portions of southeastern Texas and Louisiana.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure is drifting across Florida this morning. This system will produce heavy rain across portions of the Sunshine State over the next few days, which could lead to some localized flooding. Once it drifts back into the Atlantic, it will need to be watched for signs of development. While the most likely track for the system, if it develops at all, is to head northeastward out into the open Atlantic, there are some models that show the potential for the system to impact portions of the East Coast early this weekend or next week, as we mentioned at the end of our Weekly Outlook on Sunday. We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system, just in case it does become a threat.

The tropics remain quiet in the Atlantic right now, but it’s a different story in the Pacific, where there are currently six active systems, three in the East, and three in the West. This doesn’t even count the remains of a system crossing Hawaii today and another area being watched for development in the Western Pacific.

Starting with the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary is the strongest on the storms as well as the closest to land. At midday Monday, Hillary was centered about 340 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving towards the west-northwest at 8pm. This track is expected to continue for the next few days, bringing the system away from Mexico. Hilary has maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, but it is in an environment favorable for strengthening, and is expected to become a major hurricane over the next 24-36 hours. After that, a gradual weakening trend is expected.

A little farther to the west is Tropical Storm Irwin. Irwin was centered about 750 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at midday Monday, drifting westward at 3 mph. Irwin has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Irwin should become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday. The forecast track for Irwin is highly uncertain at the moment. Several of the computer models show an erratic motion for the storm, as it may interact with Hurricane Hilary. Whether or not it actually does interact with Hilary will have a large effect on its eventual track. Whether it does interact with Hilary or not, Irwin will remain over open water for the next several days, and is not a threat to any land areas.

Heading westward again, we come to Tropical Storm Greg. Greg’s top winds peaked at 60 mph on Friday, and it has been slowly weakening over the weekend. At midday Monday, Greg had top winds near 45 mph, and additional weakening is expected over the next few days. Greg was centered a little more than 1500 miles east of Hawaii, and was moving towards the west at 12 mph. Greg should dissipate well east of Hawaii later this week.

In the Central Pacific, there are no active storms at the moment. However, what’s left of Hurricane Fernanda is moving across Hawaii today, producing some gusty winds along with locally heavy showers and thunderstorms on Oahu and Kauai. At one point last week, Fernanda was a Category 4 hurricane with top winds of 145 mph over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific.

In the Western Pacific, we also have three active systems, and another area being watched for development.

The strongest of the storms is Typhoon Noru (07W). Noru has been meandering around in the waters well southeast of Japan for several days, and this erratic motion should continue for another day or so before a general westward motion takes over. Noru currently has maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, and some further strengthening is possible over the next 36 hours. Noru will impact the Bonin Islands over the next few days with heavy rain and gusty winds. The GFS model shows the possibility that by next weekend, Noru could become a powerful typhoon in the waters south of Japan

To the east of Noru is Tropical Storm Kulap (09W). Kulap is gradually weakening, and this should continue over the next few days. Kulap currently has top winds near 50 mph, but should weaken to a tropical depression by Tuesday. Kulap should continue moving off to the east, heading into the open waters of the Western Pacific, without impacting any additional land areas.

The storm that is the biggest threat to populated areas at the moment is Tropical Storm Sonca (08W). Sonca is currently centered about 160 miles east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam, driftng towards the southwest at 4 mph. A turn more toward the west is expected over the next 24 hours, with landfall in Vietnam expected by early Tuesday. Sonca has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. The biggest threat from Sonca is flooding from heavy rains. Sonca could produce rainfall totals of 10-20 inches or more in parts of Vietnam and Laos.

In addition to all the active systems, an area of disturbed weather about 375 miles northwest of Palau in the Western Pacific Ocean is being monitored for development. Conditions should be favorable for the system to develop over the next few days, and it could become a tropical depression later this week as it moves northward. Current computer model forecasts show the possibility of additional strengthening later this week, with the potential for a threat to the Philippines or Taiwan towards the end of the week.

Computer model forecasts show that the active pattern will likely continue, especially in the Western Pacific, for the next few weeks at a minimum, with several more tropical cyclones possible. This is not a surprise, as the Western Pacific usually is the most active tropical cyclone basin in the world. So far in 2017, that hasn’t been the case. Although the number of storms has been close to normal in the Western Pacific (and the Atlantic), many have been weak and short-lived. Using a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which takes into account how strong a storm is, and how long it lasts, we see that so far this year, activity is below normal across the Western Pacific (and the Atlantic), and above normal in the Eastern Pacific.