Our first snowstorm of the winter is on the way for Sunday night and early Monday.
A cold front is moving offshore this morning, setting the stage for our snowstorm tonight. Image provided by the Weather Prediction Center.
The cold front that brought us some rain Saturday evening has moved offshore and it will slow down today, with a wave of low pressure riding up along it tonight and early Monday. Clouds will move back into the region this afternoon ahead of this wave, with snow developing from southwest to northeast by late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will be warm enough for the precipitation to start as rain across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts, but even there, the rain/snow line will collapse southward tonight. With temperatures dropping during the evening and overnight, the snow will be more fluffy, especially north and west of Boston. During the evening hours, we could see a burst of moderate to even heavy snow, with some places picking up an inch or so per hour. The snow should taper off to snow showers after midnight, but likely won’t end until shortly before daybreak on Monday.
Low pressure will pass south and east of the region tonight. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
So, how much can we expect? North and west of I-95 most places will see 4-8 inches by the time everything winds down Monday morning. South and east of I-95, we’re looking at 3-6 inches, since there may be a little rain to start, and the snow won’t be as fluffy with temperatures a little milder. Once you get down to the South Coast, it’ll be more like 2-4 inches due to the rain at the start, with 1-3 inches across Cape Cod, heaviest towards the Canal.
A light to moderate snowstorm is expected for most of us tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Make sure you clean up your driveway Monday morning. Gusty winds behind the system will result in a little blowing and drifting snow, but it’s going to turn much colder for a few days. Temperatures on Monday may not get back up to 20 in the afternoon, and we’ll likely stay in the teens during the day on Tuesday and Wednesday, with wind chills near or below zero. Night time lows will also be in the single digits or below zero for many of us as well. We’ll have more details on this in our Weekly Outlook early Monday.
We’re going to end 2024 on a stormy note, but 2025 begins with colder weather.
We’re starting the week off on a warm but wet note as a cold front makes its way across the region. Rain should end before midday, with gusty southerly winds keeping us mild ahead of the front. Once the front moves through, we’ll quickly clear out, but temperatures won’t drop that quickly. High pressure builds in for Tuesday with some sunshine and temperatures remaining fairly mild for late-December, but that won’t last long. Another low pressure system quickly follows, with another round of rain likely Tuesday night into Wednesday, so if you’ve got outdoor plans for New Year’s Eve make sure you bring an umbrella. This will help put another dent into the ongoing drought, but it will take a lot more rain to end that. Once that system moves out, high pressure builds in for Thursday through the weekend with breezy and colder weather, though a few flurries are possible at times.
Much of the region could pick up half an inch to an inch of rain on Wednesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Normally, we don’t forecast more than a week out, but we felt that it was worth mentioning what is going to happen during the following week. You’ll see in our forecast that temperatures gradually get colder as we go through the end of this week and the weekend, but all indications are that starting next week, a much colder airmass is going to settle in, and it may remain in place for a good chunk of January. Temperatures will be below to perhaps well below normal, and there may be some days, especially toward mid-month, where high temperatures struggle to reach 20, and low temperatures could drop below zero in parts of the region. There are also some indications that next week could be stormy, with the potential for one or two storms impacting the region, but this is far less certain. It’s way too early for any details on any potential storm systems, but the cold air seems far more likely, so we figured a heads up was warranted at this point.
Temperatures could be well below normal during the first full week of January. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Rain ending in the morning, skies start to clear out in the afternoon, breezy, especially in the morning. High 50-57.
Monday night: Mostly clear. Low 32-39.
Tuesday: Morning sun gives way to increasing afternoon clouds. High 44-51.
Tuesday night: Becoming cloudy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Low 34-41 during the evening, temperatures start rising after midnight.
Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with rain tapering off to showers ending in the afternoon. High 43-50.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy, and colder. High 34-41.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 30-37.
Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 28-35.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 25-32.
If you’re happy that you had a White Christmas but want the snow gone now then you’re in luck because it will turn milder this weekend, but there’s also some rain on the way, and possibly some icing issues as well.
Much of the region could pick up an inch or more of rain between now and Monday evening. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
High pressure will keep us dry into Saturday, with temperatures gradually moderating, helping to melt a little bit of the snow, but we’ll see clouds start to move in Friday night and Saturday as low pressure begins to head our way. Showers will move in late Saturday and Saturday night ahead of a warm front, but across the interior, especially from central and northeastern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire, temperatures may be near or just below freezing Saturday night, which could result in some freezing rain for a while. Keep this in mind if you are going to be out and about in those areas Saturday evening and night. Temperatures should slowly warm up Sunday morning allowing the precipitation to change to all rain, with occasional showers likely during the day on Sunday. The low pressure system itself moves in for Sunday night and Monday, bringing some steadier and heavier rain in, allowing us to put another dent into the ongoing drought. The rain moves out during the day on Monday, with some clearing possible by late in the day.
Freezing rain could be an issue north and west of Boston Saturday night. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Gradual clearing across Cape Cod, clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Low 12-19, milder across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.
Friday: Sunshine in the morning, clouds start to filter in during the afternoon. High 35-42.
Friday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20-27, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers around during the afternoon. High 32-39, except 40-47 across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Cloudy with some occasional showers, some freezing rain or freezing drizzle likely outside of I-495. Low 30-37 north of the Mass Pike, except 37-44 across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, with temperatures possibly rising after midnight.
Sunday: Cloudy with more showers, possibly some freezing drizzle or freezing rain across southern New Hampshire in the morning. Some steadier rain may move in late in the day. High 39-46 north of Route 2, 46-53 south of Route 2.
Sunday night: Periods of rain, some of it could be heavy. Low 37-44 during the evening, temperatures may rise overnight.
Monday: Rain ends in the morning, some clearing possible late in the day, breezy. High 48-55.
The first half of the week is looking quite active, with all sorts of hazardous weather for the region.
Some much-needed rainfall is expected today and Wednesday, Image provided by WeatherBell.
The week starts off with high pressure over Quebec keeping us dry, but that won’t last long. Low pressure heading into the Great Lakes sends some clouds our way, then a secondary low pressure system will develop, passing across southern New England tonight and early Tuesday. The result will be a period of rain for much of the region, starting late this afternoon, and ending shortly after midnight, but that’s not the entire story. Across southern New Hampshire, temperatures may be cold enough for the precipitation to start as snow, with some accumulation expected, mainly from Manchester northward. By evening, warmer air will move in aloft, but cold air may get trapped at the surface, so we could be looking some freezing rain, again, mostly from Manchester northward. Precipitation tapers off to drizzle or freezing drizzle after midnight as the system pulls away. Tuesday looks to be a cloudy day with some patchy drizzle at times, and temperatures holding steady or only very slowly rising as we head through much of the day.
Most of the snow we’re expecting tonight will be across southern and central New Hampshire. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Another low pressure will start to make its way toward us Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this one will have some significant impacts on the region. We’ll see rain developing Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday and it could be heavy at times. Many models are showing the potential for 1-2 inches of rain (or more), which would help put a dent in the ongoing drought. Accompanying the rain will be gusty south to southwest winds. Many models are showing the potential for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph across the region, with several showing even stronger winds, especially across eastern and southeastern Massachusetts. We’re skeptical that winds could be as strong as some of the models are showing, but it will be a windy day for sure. Those winds will also bring unseasonably warm air in, with temperatures likely getting well into the 50s across much of the region, with some places possibly topping 60. As the system passes by Wednesday night, it will drag a strong cold front through near or just after midnight. This will bring a quick end to the rainfall, but will also usher much colder air into the region. Many places could still be in the 50s or warmer at midnight, but will drop into the 30s by daybreak, and then hold steady or drop some more during the daytime hours despite clearing skies.
Gusty winds are likely on Tuesday, with the potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure builds in for later Thursday into Saturday with mainly dry and cool conditions. Sunday is a bit of a question mark at this point. Some models show the potential for another system to move in with unsettled weather, some delay that storm until Monday, and some have it stay well to our south. At this point, it’s just too early to determine which, if any, solution is correct, so we’ll worry more about that in our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Sunday’s weather is a big question mark at this point. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy with rain developing late in the day, except snow developing in southern New Hampshire. High 40-47.
Monday night: Cloudy, snow changing to freezing rain and potentially plain rain across southern New Hampshire, showers across the rest of the region, with everything winding down shortly after midnight, but a little drizzle or freezing drizzle may linger late at night. Low 28-35 north and west of I-95, 36-43 south and east of I-95.
Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with some spotty drizzle, maybe some freezing drizzle across southern New Hampshire. High 33-40 north of the Mass Pike 41-48 south of the Pike, a little warmer across Cape Cod and the South Coast.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers developing, possibly starting as a little freezing rain across central New Hampshire. Low 32-39 during the evening north and west of I-95, 40-47 south and east of I-95, temperatures slowly rise overnight.
Wednesday: Cloudy with periods of rain, some of it could be heavy, becoming windy. Rain ends shortly after midnight. High 56-63.
Thursday: Becoming partly sunny, breezy, especially in the morning. High 36-43 early, temperatures hold steady or drop during the day.
Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 30-37.
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 34-41.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain, especially late in the day. High 38-45.
Turkey Day is looking wet, but after that things will turn colder around here.
Below normal temperatures are expected through the holiday weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
Low pressure will move out of the Tennessee Valley tonight and head towards Southern New England, passing near or just south of the South Coast on Thanksgiving Day. For most of us, we’ll see rain developing around daybreak, and ending in the evening, but across the hills from Worcester County into the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire, some snow is likely, with a few inches possible. Across the rest of southern New Hampshire, we may see the rain start as snow in the morning, but it should quickly change to rain, with little to no accumulation. Farther north, especially north of Concord, NH, a few inches may accumulate, before a change to rain occurs. The system starts to pull away Thursday evening, with the rain ending before midnight, though we could see some flakes mix in as the rain winds down.
Any accumulating snow should stay well north and west of Boston on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
As the storm moves into Atlantic Canada, we’ll clear out for Friday with breezy and colder conditions. A few stray rain or snow showers are possible, especially across Cape Cod where the winds blowing over the still relatively mild water may generate some ocean-effect showers. Another weak disturbance moves through Friday night with just a few flurries, then even colder air settles in for the weekend and Monday. With an upper-level low over the Northeast and disturbances rotating around it, we could see a few widely scattered flurries or snow showers each day.
Wind chills will be in the teens Sunday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Wednesday night: Becoming cloudy, rain may develop towards daybreak, mixed with snow well north and west of Boston. Low 29-36, temperatures may start to rise after midnight.
Thursday: Periods of rain, mixed with snow in the morning, especially from the hills of Worcester County into southern New Hampshire, becoming breezy along the coast. High 39-46 north and west of I-95 47-54 south and east of I-95.
Thursday night: Rain ending before midnight, possibly mixed with some wet snow, some clearing late at night, breezy along the coast during the evening. Low 30-37.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 40-47.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, chance for a few rain or snow showers across Cape Cod. Low 25-32.
Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a few flurries, especially across the Outer Cape, breezy, colder. High 37-44.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 22-29.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few flurries, breezy, chilly. High 35-42.
We’ll get right to the point – despite the hype over the past several days, the vast majority of the region will NOT be having a White Thanksgiving. However, we are expecting more much-needed rainfall this week.
Another 1/4-1/2 inch of much-needed rain is expected on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
We start the week off with high pressure in control, providing us with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Clouds start to move in tonight as low pressure moves from the Great Lakes towards Northern New England. This system will bring us some rain Tuesday morning and afternoon, but we’re a little concerned about Tuesday morning in particular. Temperatures will cool off pretty quickly Monday evening before the clouds arrive, and by the time the rain moves in near or just after daybreak, temperatures may be near freezing across parts of southern New Hampshire. The ground remains fairly warm, but if it’s near 32 and starts to rain, there could be a little icing, especially on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. Temperatures should quickly rise above 32 after daybreak, but if you’re going to be out in southern New Hampshire around daybreak Tuesday, use a little extra caution, especially if the rain moves in a little earlier than currently expected. Rain ends Tuesday afternoon and we clear out at night as high pressure builds in Tuesday night. Wednesday starts off with sunshine, but clouds stream right back in during the afternoon as low pressure begins to move out of the Tennessee Valley.
The models agree the Thanksgiving will be stormy, but don’t agree on the details. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
The latest indications are that this low pressure system will pass south of New England or possibly across Cape Cod during Thanksgiving and into Friday morning. The result will likely be a rainy Turkey Day, so keep this in mind if you are traveling for the holiday. Of course, this is far from locked in, as there is still some uncertainty in the models. Some show the storm passing far enough south that it misses the region entirely. Some bring in a period of heavier rain, and some have enough cold air in place at the start that the rain may start as snow across the interior on Thanksgiving Day, before quickly changing to rain. None of the models show a major snowstorm around here any more, despite a couple of runs of the models doing so last week. One or two show some decent accumulations for ski country, but even that is far from certain at this point. We’ll have much more detail in our Weekend Outlook which will be published on Wednesday this week with the holiday on Thursday. The storm pulls away Friday morning, and there’s the possibility that the rain could change over to snow before ending across areas north and west of Boston, but again, this is far from certain at this point. Blustery and colder weather moves in behind that storm for the weekend, with a few flurries possible at times.
Bundle up if you’ll be out early Sunday morning, with wind chills in the teens. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to filter in towards evening, breezy. High 44-51.
Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers developing late at night, possibly as some freezing rain across southern New Hampshire. Low 30-37.
Tuesday: Rain likely, ending during the afternoon, some clearing late in the day. High 42-49 north of the Mass Pike, 50-57 south of the Pike.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 31-38.
Wednesday: Breezy with sunshine during the morning, then clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 43-50.
Thanksgiving Day: Cloudy with rain developing, possibly starting as a little wet snow across the interior. High 42-49 north and west of I-95, 50-57 south and east of I-95.
Friday: Showers ending in the morning, possibly changing to snow before ending across the interior, some clearing may develop in the afternoon. High 41-48.
Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy, colder, chance for a few flurries. High 37-44.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chilly, chance for a few flurries. High 35-42.
Much-needed rain has finally made its way to the region, and more is coming.
Much of the region could pick up an inch or more of rain by the end of the weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
After weeks without significant rainfall, we finally had some move in today as low pressure moved south of New England. An upper-level low pressure system will move out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, pulling that system into New York and Pennsylvania tonight, which means the steady rain this evening will taper off to showers overnight. The upper low then moves in for Friday, and while there could be some sunny breaks in the morning, for the most part we’ll have plenty of clouds with a few showers around. With some cold air aloft, there could be a few snowflakes mixed in, especially across the higher terrain of central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire. A disturbance rotating around that upper-level low will trigger a new storm system south and east of New England, bringing rain and gusty winds back in for late Friday into early Saturday, mainly across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. If the precipitation shield can extend far enough west, the rain may change to snow across the hills of Worcester County and the Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire. That low pulls away on Saturday, but we’ll be slow to clear out, with a gusty northwest breeze keeping us on the cool side. High pressure builds in for Sunday with more sunshine, but there will still be some clouds around with the upper-level low nearby. Monday starts off with some sun, but then clouds start to move back in during the afternoon as another storm system heads this way from the Great Lakes. This will likely bring in more rain showers for Monday night and Tuesday.
Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible this weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Rain tapers off to showers, ending overnight, some partial clearing possible late at night, breezy. Low 38-45.
Friday: Some sunshine in the morning, then clouds return with a few showers around, becoming a steadier rain late in the day across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. High 46-53.
Friday night: Periods of rain, mainly across eastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. Low 34-41.
Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with showers (or wet snow) ending in the morning, though there could be a few more showers around in the afternoon. High 43-50.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy. Low 35-42.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy. High 44-51.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 30-37.
Monday: Morning sun, clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 47-54.
Finally, since the hype train already left the station yesterday, we’ll address the possibility of a “White Thanksgiving”. Yes, a couple of models have occasionally shown the potential for a storm system next weekend. However, these models have been highly inconsistent at that range, and they vary widely on the track, strength, and timing of the potential system, and what, if any, impact it might have here. Anything from wind-swept rain to heavy snow, to a sunny but cool weekend is on tap. It’s just WAY too early to even speculate on what might happen a week from now. We’ll address it a little more in our Weekly Outlook early Monday, but even then, the details will probably still be a fuzzy. Bottom line: don’t worry about it, don’t go cancelling any Thanksgiving weekend plans, and stay tuned for further updates. If there is anything to worry about, we’ll let you know well in advance.
The models all have very different solutions for Thanksgiving Day. Images provided by Pivotal Weather,
Despite what the app on your phone says, most of the weekend will actually be rather pleasant.
What’s left of Debby will pass well north and west of us Friday night. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.
What’s left of Debby will head northward tonight, sending a warm front across the region. Some showers may accompany it, but you’ll notice humidity levels increasing once again. Temperatures may actually rise a few degrees overnight as winds shift into the southeast and south. Ex-Debby will pass well north and west of the region Friday and Friday night, keeping us in the warm and humid side ahead of the storm. We’ll have some occasional showers during the day on Friday, but it won’t be a washout. Some steadier and potentially heavier showers are likely Friday night into early Saturday as Ex-Debby crosses northern New England and drags a cold front across our area. The showers end Saturday morning, then we’ll clear out in the afternoon, with gusty west to northwest winds ushering drier air in, though it will remain quite warm. High pressure then builds in for Sunday and Monday with sunshine, warm temperatures, and comfortable humidity levels.
There may be some heavier downpours, but for the most part, the models do not bring heavy rain into the region for Friday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Cloudy with a few showers likely. Low 60-67 during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, some occasional showers at times, becoming breezy in the afternoon. High 77-84.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, showers becoming more widespread with some heavier downpours and a few rumbles of thunder. Low 69-76.
Saturday: Breezy with showers and thunderstorms ending in the morning (early afternoon across Cape Cod), becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds, not as humid. High 76-83.
A much cooler and wetter week is upcoming for the region.
Some models show the potential for a significant amount of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
We’ve got one more hot and humid day today with high pressure offshore, but big changes are on the way. A cold front will move in tonight, possibly accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. The front is expected to stall out near or just south of us on Tuesday, with much cooler weather likely behind it. Some additional showers are likely during the day on Tuesday. A wave of low pressure riding along the front will bring in some rain for Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly some heavy rain, especially south of the Mass Pike. Despite how wet it has been around here for the past year or more, we’ve actually been rather dry for the past month or two, and can use the rain, though maybe not all at once. High pressure briefly brings in drier air for Wednesday night and part of Thursday before Debby impacts the region.
By Friday evening, there is a more than 1000 mile spread in the Ensemble members for the location of Debby. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
As of 2am, Hurricane Debby was centered only 40 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, moving toward the north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph. By the time most of you read this, Debby will have already made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region. Storm surge flooding will gradually die down this morning, and winds will steadily weaken, but rain will continue across the Southeast for several days, with widespread significant flooding likely from northern Florida into the Carolinas. Once inland, Debby is likely to stall out as steering currents collapse, and meander around in the Southeast, resulting in all of that rainfall. While Debby is doing that, some of the moisture from it will get drawn northward, interacting with that stalled frontal system, bringing us some rain for Friday and Saturday. In fact, we could be looking at quite a bit of rain. The wildcard is Debby itself. Some models have Debby dissipate across the Southeast, some bring it back offshore then into the Carolinas before heading up the coast in a weakened state, and some keep it inland and weak, then bring it up here. If it gets up here, there is even more uncertainty, as some models bring what’s left of the circulation right across southern New England, some bring it south of New England, while strengthening as it becomes extratropical, which introduces even more issues here, including gusty winds, not to mention temperature forecasts depending on the where the storm tracks. What you see below is our “best guest-imate” right now, but obviously this is very low confidence based on everything we just mentioned. A cold front will move through Saturday night, kicking whatever is left of Debby out to sea, and bringing drier weather in for Sunday.
Depending on Debby’s track, parts of the region could receive more heavy rain Friday and Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to increase late in the day. High 85-92, little cooler across Cape Cod.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers likely. Low 65-72.
Tuesday: More clouds than sun, any showers end early, possibly redevelop towards evening. High 72-79, early, cooler in the afternoon.
After a nearly month-long slumber, the Atlantic is waking up again with the formation of Tropical Storm Debby.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Debby. Loop provided by NOAA.
A tropical wave that we’ve been watching for nearly a week finally found some favorable atmospheric conditions as it moved into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and became Tropical Depression Four Friday night, then was upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby Saturday afternoon. As of 8pm Saturday, Debby was centered about 100 miles west-southwest of Key West, Florida, moving toward the northwest at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Most of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle are under a variety of Tropical Storm, Hurricane, and Storm Surge Watches or warnings.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Debby’s immediate future is fairly simple – it will turn more toward the north while strengthening over the next day or so, heading towards the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Debby to reach minimal hurricane strength before making landfall early Monday. However, the models (and NHC) do a poor job forecasting rapid intensification, and the water in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is extremely warm, providing plenty of fuel for the storm. While the forecast doesn’t show it, we wouldn’t be surprised if Debby does intensify rapidly at some point on Sunday, and is a much stronger storm at landfall.
Water temperatures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are 30-32C (85-90F). Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Once inland, the steering currents collapse, and Debby will slow down and meander around across parts of northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina during the first part of next week while weakening. This will increase the flooding threat across the region (more on that in a bit). After that, things get very uncertain. Some models keep the storm inland over the Southeast, steadily weakening before heading northeastward later in the week. Other models bring the storm back out into the Atlantic, with some strengthening, with a second landfall in the Carolinas, or a turn out to sea. At this point, it’s impossible to tell which scenario will happen, so we won’t even attempt to.
The various model ensembles show a wide range of potential tracks for Debby over the next 5 days. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.
Debby will have significant impacts across Florida and parts of the Southeast over the next few days. Strong winds are obviously a threat near where the storm makes landfall. Storm surge is likely across most of the Florida Gulf Coast, with the highest surge and correspondingly highest chance for coastal flooding near and to the right of where the storm makes landfall. By far, the biggest threat is freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are expected from central Florida into southern North Carolina, with heavier amounts likely, especially if the storm does stall out. Rainfall totals in excess of 20 inches are not out of the question, especially in parts of Georgia and South Carolina.
Extreme rainfall is likely across the Southeast from Debby with widespread flooding likely. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
While there are no other storms on the horizon at this time, we are getting closer to the peak of hurricane season, so it is likely just a matter of time until the next storm develops.
Storm HQ 