Astronomical fall officially begins Tuesday morning at 9:31am. As far as the weather is concerned, fall is going to start tomorrow.
Temperatures are going to turn much cooler, but we’re still not expecting much, if any, rain for the next several days, so our drought situation will continue to get worse. A cold front will move across the region tonight, but it will be starved for moisture, so aside from a few very widely scattered showers, we’re not expecting any rain for most of us. There may be a few appreciable showers along the South Coast and across the Cape, but for the rest of us, you’ll probably be able to count the number of raindrops that fall on one hand.
After that, high pressure starts to build in behind the front on Friday and remains with us right through the weekend. This will give us plenty of sunshine for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but it will remain on the cool side. Some places may not even reach 60 during the afternoons. What about at night? If you’ve got some plants outside, or still growing in the garden, it’s time to bring them inside. There’s a good shot at the first frost for portions of the region. Welcome to Autumn.
Finally, we’ll briefly talk about the tropics, though we’re expecting to write a much more detailed post about them tomorrow. What’s left of Sally will bring heavy rain to the Carolinas today, then move offshore, sending some clouds our way tonight and early Friday, but the rain should stay to the south. A disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico may become a Tropical Depression later today or tomorrow. What impact it has on Mexico and/or Texas remains to be seen. Tropical Depression Vicky should dissipate in the Central Atlantic today or tomorrow. Then there’s Hurricane Teddy. Teddy is going to become a pretty powerful storm in the next day or two. The current track brings it very close to Bermuda early Monday. Bermuda just got hit hard by Paulette, and here were are talking about another hurricane just a week later. Beyond that, Teddy likely heads northward, and could impact parts of Nova Scotia towards mid-week unless it hooks more quickly and heads out to sea. Now, you may have heard some of the media talking yesterday about the potential for Teddy to head our way. This is because one model (which has performed very poorly for several months now) showed a track that brought the storm closer, or even made landfall in Maine. In fact, one unnamed Boston TV meteorologist went so far as to show a map based on this model with a wind forecast for the region for next Tuesday (we can think of several words to describe this, but we’ll settle for STUPID). This is the equivalent of showing a model forecast snowfall map on Wednesday for a storm that one model shows might hit us next Tuesday. (Wait, they already do that too) The odds of Teddy impacting our area are extremely low (maybe not zero, but close enough). We long for the days when our local TV meteorologists just came on and provided a weather forecast for the next 3-5 days, and didn’t try and hype up everything.
Thursday night: Plenty of clouds, a few torrential sprinkles are possible, especially near the South Coast. Low 50-57.
Friday: Morning clouds, maybe even another raindrop or two across the Cape and the Islands, then skies start to clear out in the afternoon, but it will turn much cooler. High 58-65.
Friday night: Mostly clear and chilly. Low 37-44, a little warmer in the urban areas. A little patchy frost is possible in a few f the colder spots.
Saturday: Sunshine and possibly a few high clouds near the South Coast. High 57-64.
Saturday night: Clear and chilly again. Low 35-42, a little warmer in the urban areas. Some frost is possible, especially in the normally cooler locations.
Sunday: Wall-to-wall sunshine. High 56-63.
Sunday night: Clear skies, still chilly. Low 38-45, a little warmer in the urban areas.
Monday: Sunshine. Nothing but sunshine. High 58-65.